as western russia, that's drop down temperatures there. okay. back to africa we go. unsettled from 2 to is to rebut the really interesting here. so for going for a closer look, the western side of to an easy it rain eastern side, sending dust storms drying up. warm air, tripoli, up to 37. and we've got a lot of rain coming for cuz we were going to tell providence in south africa, why didn't wendy in durbin on friday the approved or reject the most progressive constitution ever proposed for any nation in history? yes. phone to the photo, you know, the big picture. aust. why a question. the delves into the very foundation of actually into the dog college. if it's relationship with indigenous people them. a boucher and the middle of the big picture coming through on that, which is a rush of steps up miss all the tax on key on your planning and troops.

next territorial games and a lot of these landscape secures more wesson's from western allies. but will it make a difference? does diplomacy stand a chance? this is inside story, the color there and welcome to the program. i'm this dante, 15 months into russia's invasion of ukraine. present what it means. the landscape has secured further military support from western allies. they promised more weapons training money bought stuff, sort of providing the 165 digits that he says could be a game changer as russia escalates. it's miss all attacks the head of an expected ukraine encounter offensive. successful can lead is on now putting a piece mission to moscow and keys. so it was all the interest at stake and how

could they shift political alliances? would explore those issues without guess shortly. but 1st, this reported by a couple of us hold on you christ, presidents, a lot of merciless keith had a long wish list for his 3 day european tour. much of it was granted with leaders promising billions of dollars worth of miss lyles tags and trunks to 4 families. of them were returning home with new military health, new and more powerful weapons for the front lines, a more protection for our people. we also have great political support. however, his request for f, 16 fighter jets has been rejected with pilot training programs offered instead, which will mean that we're training ukrainian citizens to become absolutely combat ready at cross pilots. and particularly whether it comes to nato tactics as well because that's an important part of the long term relationship between all countries. many western allies, notably us president joe biden,

are hesitant to supply key with american made weapons. second, reach russian soil, but so landscape and sits the weapons are vital to defend ukraine against escalated air strikes. the latest offer to mediate comes from african nations, a delegation of 6 countries, including egypt and south africa, set to meet the russian and ukrainian leaders. soon present button and president is lensky. i agreed to that there would be willing to receive admission of the african heads of states, and both must co and the keys hold up on the most african nations have abstained from voting on the u. n. resolutions condemning the invasion. russia has been building close ties with states and africa since the conflict began. and ukraine is one of the biggest exporters of weight to the continent. 15 months into the war,

the list of countries attempting to broker peace between russia and ukraine. the spreading across regions, katia, look this up again for insights. story the well, let's bring in august into we have pieces on this. he's the executive director of the razor democracy initiative, a non profit organization, some that promotes democracy and post communist transitional societies and london, samuel romani, and he's an associate fellow at the royal united services institution leading u. k. defense and security thing. tech samuels, also the old set of persons war and ukraine, and in the russian capital most go, we have let them use something called. he's an associate professor of international relations at the high school of economics university, and also a specialist on russian foreign affairs. i will welcome to you on, thanks so much for joining us on inside story. now, president letting me his lensky has just come back from his round european tool asking from a weapon. so i, i want to stop that. as katia just reported,

he's gotten a lot of what's on his wish list, but not these of 165 digits at least not yet. piece it. was it a success? yeah, i think overall it was a great success and i think, you know, the fact that i would present has collected these essentially pledges by member states i would need to include in france crucial where that supports ukraine's eventual membership. and they don't was very important, you know, and i would probably discount at this point the point in step app, 16 short term because obviously it will take not, not weeks but months to get our pilots train. uh so this may be a little bit of a, you know, um the red herring, you know, uh and you know what, what is important is to get in as much of a uh, artillery support tanks uh, you know, electronic uh, um, devices, etc. that'd be pretty needs, in order to stage a successful contract fans and app 16 is very important. and you know what?

i believe they will be coming eventually. uh, for whatever post, you know, more of their security arrangement is found for ukraine and long term, a thing you can needs them, but short term thing, ukraine. it will be the task. it won't be overnight. but i think ukraine's counter offensive can be successful without f sixteens. well, we've seen quite a robust, round of weapons commitments. it's obviously a very fine line for western countries. they want to support tiers, but they also don't want to do something that would escalate the will not. i mean, how is this latest round of commitments being viewed in moscow? i thank you very much for having me on the show. once again, i think that the actually uh only offer so only please use the which your line you can even call it was mentioning in case uh, um, in case you actually, they're not really much welcome. they, they, in fact they, they, they are not the bulk of the bus, but i think that the russia actually will utilize all possible assets

including strikes. we'd sure we have seen just know, i mean in the previous slide on the before the and also i think uh the um, the situation will be down there with the strikes will be reorder youngsters on the 1st floor. roots off. uh visa tanks it, i'm not sure how much we had sold up to the united states or something you're in the life of another space or going to really ship like ukraine was f. 16 uh fine to bose. because that means that uh, the cd us weapon is already engaged and the one that will be as the lady, so i don't know to about that. yeah you're, you're going to lie. so you're going to station like just go right the installation of the wash. so i think that the, um, at the end of the day, a restaurant will undertake all the necessary measures to cope

with the problems of the uh, west uh, uh, back to our, our supplies open source. the date is the rate 3 of drain show. but it doesn't sound like most of it necessarily views this as an escalation, samuel, you'll assisting in london. the u. k. has said that they're going to be supplying long range missiles to ukraine, which would cover more distance than what you can currently has. how much of a difference do you think these weapons will actually make to focusing on the ground and strategy? so i think the britain is already supply the store and shout themselves and the russians, instead of the storm shadow missiles were already put onto the battlefield. but this drag that we saw last week and the last so these are also going to be paired with additional drone technologies. obviously the ukrainians have been wanting long range missiles for a long time. they've wanted data cameras in the united states, but there have been some concerns. obviously in western capital is that ukraine might use them outside of just the occupied ukrainian regions, but actually to strike russian territory proper. do you claim it and insurance to

britain that it wouldn't do that? and then it got these long way gives us. so i think that it's a significant advantage for the running costs. and also it's interesting that they've been very swiftly integrated onto the battlefield. i'm like out of the sixty's, as we just mentioned, would you could take months to enter the battlefield. i mean, i just want to follow up that the line that teens is sticking to, that it's acting defensively that it's not attacking russian territory and your assessment of the war so far. how true is that? well, i mean, it depends that we define his actual defense, that actions. i mean, that obviously, yeah, of others lensky and his team around it are categorically denied that there's ranking targets inside russia. but we've seen some but it goes from some suggestions to the hunter. i, i, there were some interesting girl, at least, for example, that came through from the washington post. i suggested that as long as he was at least mulling as occupying where she villages and, and distracting the judgment i applied towards hungry. and also, there was a plan from his advisory, several districts, syria, as lensky put a, put the brakes on. and is also referring to, showing that attacks that were seeing inside belgrade and brianna's concurs scare

the borders of russia. and even further on, which could have been now triggered by a ukrainian attacks. any progression behind enemy lines. obviously though, if they're targeting logistics and the military of russia from inside, that could be deemed as a defensive operation in a sense, because preventing the russians were striking you ready in cities. but the russians would probably take that as an escalation. so really depends on how you define defensive and offensive action. ukraine denied struggling roger. but there's some conditional evidence that they have been engage those types of activities. so here's where i see nothing that, that's your assessment to. and i would just say that it was a response to the previous panelist and the russian participant of that, you know, for rush of rush, it considers and can't consider anything is coward escal authority considering that's the occupied territory where ukraine just hoping to stay just counter offensive including consultants of our region, the nest and crimea. they are already according to the russian constitution part of

the russian territory. and there is no difference between moscow and crimea in the eyes of. 1 uh, russian lawmaker or actually politician or a russian military person. so, you know, it's very much a moot point at this point. after we've seen time. and again, the way russia has reacted to these pasco authority tactics. you know, they have pro and everything. they have a do crane. i wish our co panel is from russia experience, at least one night. this sort of night we experience 3 days ago was broken up at 3 in the morning and all hell breaks loose over you. literally what it felt like your rooftop, you know, so i at this point i don't understand what that escalation, that's a rush i is warning about could me in short of a nuclear war. so i wouldn't put too much stock in it and you know, so, so i do want to ask you about something that you set a moment ago, which was, it was your suggestion that keith doesn't need to be that 60 ins to when the war

you talked about them being used in a post world context, right? i'm curious about why k wants these f sixteens i'm, i understand that there are facilities and you'll find very, very few of them that could actually handle the jet. so obviously, as you suggested as while a huge amount of training, is this about symbolism or is it actually about strategy? well, you know, i think it's uh, once i get started with the longer uh, towards the strategy of security for you quite. and ukraine is very mindful that we're dealing with when it comes to our allies in the west, members of the rug starting coalition, nato states. these are electro democracies and the wins of democracy. the below i very capricious one day to day the blow in one direction tomorrow is they'll be blow blowing a different direction to put it bluntly, ukrainians are of you know, concerned about, um, you know, the, these winds in washington whether they will ship come uh, the electrons in 2024 if electric, if the republicans for donald trump take power again, and then, you know,

all bets are off. and so this is a way to get it as much weaponry and as many get a security guarantees as possible before those negligible winds of change, you know, a set in, in the us and other western capitals. so anxiety then potentially in key is given the context of the 2024 election dotted me. i'm curious about how that's going on and how that sitting at the moment and most good, excuse me, excuse me. i, i just want to make a point to the previous reply. also you can get back to it. i could also would like for you to know that uh he you, you won't get the experience of having sustained and continue is the bottom adult for your premium drones on the value of the day actually live with my, my, my, my, my close relative lives, them but they have small children, so sorry to say that, but back to they have to abandon their houses because of the premium drones. well,

but by the, by the rock and so far the, the, the side area. so that's actually also an experienced problem where you will be yes . and the thing i would like to point out that most skill actually is not feeling you letting you go. so the whole college of friends isn't full. i mean, uh, we have college students ranging out what troops, i hear the news that the, the total amount of the troops will be on the maybe around 5 other calls. so one thing, another point is that that the rush of rush actually is they make making sceptics as far as i can understand in the region be not come with a cold, but the operations actually russia is getting the floor to professionals to do

professionals like a private company, private village, regardless of what the company actually is doing the job. right. so i think that's out of it. at the end of the day, michael into them. absolutely. sure. left that effect on the web. the so called but you pay them a culture defense, you would say way somebody disappears and will take place. probably in the we call in the bombs, in between. they said yes. so i, the, i'm, it's all the ukraine will get much of a voltage as much as you do to get as much a great example that i feel like this is a good time to take a bit of a look at who controls was on the grounds. at the moment, you can says it continues to make gains in the east, specifically around the eastern city of buck much fights as belonging to russia's development group held most of that city besides of one of the longest and bloody as baffles of this war. and russia meanwhile says it's carried out several grounds

attacks along the don't yet. front. now letting me you were just saying that wagner has been doing an excellent job. the recent reports will room is that, well, dispute said reports that wagner had been actually sharing intelligence with keys and keith denies this. but regardless of all of that, this, this cons and i have this been a huge amount of disunity on the russian friends. well, actually i think this is rob, or something. i don't know. well, you get this information, but i think this information that fund the group is sharing some intelligence information with the premium military. i think that's a complete the wrong wrong wrong as auction i you know, mr. pig gordon. who is the chief of the group. he's not going to be a, say a per day. so let's say to be it to be a trade. so for uh, for his own country, that's one of the last thing i think uh sorry, what was the 2nd part of your question? right. uh, i just thought, oh no. so i understand that these are disputed reports. uh,

but they have been huge amounts of disputes between wagner and the russian military . very public ones over the last few weeks and months, particularly around bach was you call and say that there's a huge amount of unity in, in the fights and forces that oh wow, yes, yes, i agree with you. there were some reports of that rather than that, i hear the roster and most to that uh there were. 3 results that to various uh, some uh, ongoing bathrooms, uh uh, in the most phil, but he's busy going. so, but i think that's where there was information never just the way to raise you myself. again. that's a huge. yeah. i, well, you huge amounts of the troops over russian troops will be all, i'm going to be a master along with they all the front line, which is the why the, quite the fixed alignment to the right now and the world. why think that the, the war actually, uh, ukrainian,

or russian war is at the moment the position one millside is going just to undertake something with our big macho river rush. okay, well, let's talk about this counter offensive that we expect to happen. samuel from previous ukrainian strategies, do you envision this to be more about trying to re take territory potentially, or taking out just like different strategic targets instead? how intense could this fighting get? well, i think this counter offensive is going to be important in terms of the teaching of territory. i'm already seeing is uh, some limited movements in a variety of potential axis, as well as with the united states call shaping operations, which are preventing and derailing worst. his ability to retaliate for ukrainian advances. so we're basically seeing some shipping operations take shape and parts is that produce chance to just talk mack, which could lead to a broader assault on the city about a total. and if you really is, do you manage to liberate miller trouble?

they will be able to just drop the russian supply chains further from premier drawers on. that's another area where the running and they're trying to expand. isn't the hans quickly along the axis being side of them for me? now, there's heavy russian fortifications there, but you granted you making slow but steady gains over there over the course of the kind of stuff several weeks. and then there's what we've been just noticing. and by hood, where do you really is it managed to take advantage of the fact that the larger group forces are concentrate on urban battles in the city center. and they've been able to liberate 20 square kilometers on the northern and southern plants. so i think it will be a multiple access counter offensive where they liberate territory. and they combine that with the tax on russian logistics both in the occupied territories and perhaps denial a inside rush itself. so it sounds like preparations a very much in place. i'm curious about how this has been viewed and kids because as we've been talking about that has been, is escalating. this all strikes on the capital over the course of a recent days piece. you would just describing them yourself. is that view?

there is a reflection of moscow being worried about the counter offensive, or is it about pre empting it? yes, indeed, it is by all indications, very troubling trouble. some time for uh for, for moscow mind you on that uh drum at that on the kremlin was the 1st time that this impregnable uh, up until then it print, unable fortress in the heart of the country. and the heart of its capital was breached during the 1st time, was in 1986 when a german file into much yes, bruce landed on the red square. so a scandal of major proportions and throughout the process that we've seen starting by, you know, last summer, a space off of all our sons, the fire a backs, uh my tags on various so know o oil, depositories, military, um, military, uh, objects and uh, just a few days ago of 3 helicopters and to play and shut down over the bronze area.

but as they were on route to attack, ukrainian essentially civilians all down in one day. and just yesterday, a milestone was these 200000 russian soldiers as reported by the prince. defense ministry have died in this war, which is 10 times the number of soviet soldiers who died and the warrant of getting this done in 10 years. so yes russians are the, and the criminal is very, very concerned about the coming culture offensive. and obviously these are a lot of them are retaliatory attacks, the showings on key if which you would doubt about their advocacy and, but there, you know what the purpose is because ukrainians have shown that, you know, a tremendous success rate shooting, dial dismissal, including the missile that's, that's like an appointment that's claim cannot be shut down and we just control. and the patriots that had been delivered to ukraine are now being shown to

successfully disabled. even these hypersonic missiles to okay, i want to take a bit of a step back here at this point because it's been the yet and a course of 15 months since this will began. i know mosca has been releasing policy documents about countering the west broadly, and they hardly mentioned you can, but shortly this is viewed as part of that is this whole being viewed as, as positive for all the russian foreign policy and therefore must go resent it for the long haul well, actually, uh, uh, yes, there was a concept uh, it goes up to a new quote, simple roches, lawrenceville, assuming that the problem for us actually that's a, really, that these, the books you want by the western countries as these policy documents are saying so, and i think that the relations between russia and the western countries i'm going

to showing only about the united states all say europe in united states, europe, in the lifeline germany, france, are involved as i think these relations have been spoiled for 4 years to call so i think that to you create a new context actually was one of the text projects stuff protocol for publishing, just talking about. and the other thing also, i would like to, yeah, that's a seems 2014 and the game clear that russia is love going to be extracted by the western kansas in jones, whichever. all they come back. sure. it's there are 4 invoices lot. i think that there is no longer that service. right. and you bought the document actually the number. uh the uh is gonna be uh, uh, probably in the documents like, uh, another gold subset of shoes. when, when would be there will be a continuation of this one. so it does feel very like the kremlin is waste,

is playing a bit of a waiting game to see how long west and unity will last and it has held sofa. samuel, i want to ask you just a little more about the 16 because our cool ukraine got the tanks from the west in march like 6 months before that sending times would have been seen as a huge escalation. do you think that that might be the same case when it comes to the 16th, that it's really just a matter of time on the west and unity will hold long enough for that to happen. yeah, i think that they built in the passport and it does seem as if the russians are handy on western disunity. still, even though the west is remainder because the united during this war we just saw surgery elaborate yesterday. for example, just remind international audiences about the fact that the us, the band of the after and government and left the taliban takeover in 2021 and implying the something similar could happen with regards to us. support for your grand turning towards the specifics of the 16th. i think it's more, more likely that the united states will eventually cave on supplying these as well

as other ada cams that towards the beginning of a long range, missiles are being restricted because of the supply constraints, according to mark village. not because of exploration risks and the 16th probably due to the fact that they're just not going to arrive in time for the current counter offensive. so i think that the more the countries are training you bringing pilots to use them, like the british training efforts, the belgian training efforts, and many others that we've noticed over the course of the past couple of weeks, including jay's lensky stuart. and that seems to be a phrase repaired to use them anything to the 16th will eventually enter the battlefield. and one last point is important to keep in mind that this, your training gather offensive regardless of whether it succeeds or how much it succeeds or fails, is not going to be probably the last one in this war. the russians are in this, of all as of the radiance and the succeeds would come into effect during another account or event of the rent is launched in the future. so well as everyone's in it . so the long haul that me, i'll spend about the ongoing mediation efforts, china's now go to mediation if it going african leaders on their way to moscow and

keep the put francis once to get involved as well. a piece a, how is this viewed in t if is any of us going anywhere? well, i do. you have obviously cannot ins, agonized china, considering what a crucial player it is in worlds affairs. and it's making efforts to, uh, you know, good faith efforts to engage with china who special representative was just being key. uh, you know, having said that, you credit is wary that your child is also guided by the is imperative to not allow for me to lose a face or a to lose the war to dramatically because of alignment. put this isn't beings. governments are l like in that they have challenged the liberal world order led by the united states and the allies. and so these uh, you know, various uh these, uh, keeping your initiatives and now that we see coming up just from china, but from brazil and from most recently from south africa,

these old members of the so called drakes, which is that grouping of countries where russia is also part of and so ukraine has officially to welcome it, but once again, so we are very, very concerned about the parts. yeah. like the layers and the way they're trying to keep lab reporting face intact. and you mentioned impartiality that let me ask very, very briefly allow them to come in on that. how is the african piece initiative at the moment being viewed in oscar a well, actually is. thank you very much for the question. it's really the question. i think that that it has been well come back to the russian funding industry just to say publish the statement to reach out. it says that the, uh well to a is a well coming this initiative. and i think that's a little bit really. i talked about during the visit the piece after completion to most google docs look over this when they have uh vacation. but also, um and the uh,

russians wanted me to say about those. i think presidents loved even what the rich clinton will accept them. another thing i just wanted to make one point very shortly, i will the just one make or if any, where we will not be including a, uh, anything which is not suitable for russia. i think of the peaceful negotiations a little bit of success at all. so they both have, i hope i hope that the separate the nation, i'm not sure if familiar with that details of the plan, but i hope that the site after that i guess norfolk, at least you have a realistic level also piece of the region. well, we'll leave the discussion this and now this country most to talk about. but thank you to all of august pieces only have samuel romani and letting me have something called and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website, that's also 0 dot com. and for further discussion 2 guys, well facebook page, that's a facebook dot com forward slash

a inside story. remember, you can also join the conversation on twitter. handle is as a inside story for me and as long as you pay and the whole team has bye for now the the thousands of h to be lucid from asian countries ending up in western sands and private collection in a true pot, special with one on one east fuller's request to return hazel stolen us effects. the lovey breach on the river is widening that's ominous for the town of time. i

wrote down the street as more storms bear down on the farming community. this week, out of 1700 residents were told to evacuate. the county of monterey has performed more than 170 high water rescues as a result of the squad. the storms are the result of atmospheric rivers, long currents of waste during the air at cause rain and snow fall, california has experienced no less than 10 such ones rare phenomenon since january impact of climate change and a probable trend into the future. we understand the differences and similarities of cultures across the world. so no matter how the tank will bring you the news and current to fast that matter to you, the .