wins times coming off the golf for us here in the house. so that means it's a human picture over the next few days. let me show you the 3 day forecast, but we get into more full on sunshine by monday with that human ex, its feeling of 46 and a wider view right now of the middle leave shows us fairly quiet conditions of warrants coming in to book that as well with a high of 40 the russell bid in southern england with 2 farmers trans safari park. pioneers fits the attractive with nature in the driving seat. i was just absolutely astonishing. the license pulled back even, not very 1st summer. and i'm again sophie i sent to you, i would see minutes when one file you in the ring companies revolutionize seem to be using funds in our 57th image. and here inside you have size. you have a technology, fast fries phone, which is 0 usa launched of so called war on terra in the wake of 911

invasions of afghanistan and iraq for his teenage loss of life, infinity spread across many possibilities. so what happens to this is inside store, [000:00:00;00] the kind of down, welcome to the program on this policy. okay. how often us president george w bush launched what he labeled the wall on terra in 2001 the people in countries like afghanistan and iraq. he is a violent death and destruction and political instability which the father thousands also detained and illegally taken to other countries. many tortured was subjected to brutal treatment, unhealthy as without trial. resistance grew and pushed the u. s. and nature,

as i've got us down 2 years ago, a new investigation from the top us university says moving 4500000 people died directly or indirectly from the so called war on terra. we'll be discussing its legacy with the reports of the end, our guest, and just a few minutes. but festus report from alexandra by us on how it old again, it's been more than 2 decades since the 911 attacks who like to devastating and costly wars in november 2001 the us led an international coalition to invade afghanistan, accusing the taliban of harbouring all kinds of fighters, it launched a huge bombing campaign and a ground operation. tens of thousands of people were killed and millions more displaced. in 2003, the us attacked rock part of it so called war on terror,

accusing its leader of stock piling, weapons of mass destruction side of hussein. and his regime will stop at nothing until something stops him. the more plunged the country into sectarian violence and toppled saddam hussein. the weapons of mass destruction were never found. major combat operations any rack of ended in the battle of a rack. the united states and our allies have prevailed. george bush's declaration of victory was made before the worst of violence in a rock was yet to come. the legacy of both invasions brought disastrous consequences for people in the region. but the so called war on terror was never declared over, and it inflicted not healed. a new

study by the cost of your project at brown university estimates the post 911 wars and their ongoing impact have led to more than 4500000. and the scope of the report includes conflicts in places like pockets on syria, somalia, and the, i mean, there are no official statistics for the numbers who died in the so called war on terror. but the report says, there are more indirect dest then come back. fatalities in direct depths, are blamed on things like the breakdown of economic, environmental and psychological conditions. more than 20 years since the war in afghanistan, the tao that are back in power. after a hasty us and nato withdrawal, almost 2 years ago, international donors have frozen, asked on bank reserves, and its health system is on the brink of collapse. the report asked in a place like afghanistan, can any death today be considered unrelated to the us war?

and what long lasting impact would continue to have on these countries? alexandra buyers for inside story. the. well, that's not bringing a guess in new york, stephanie saddle, the co director of the costs of war and on a non profit and massage project based at the watson institute international and public affairs at brown university and, and also of the report and mattress. uh and united kingdom ruba ali hoss any, a post structural was that you fellow lancaster university and also co found the rocky women academics network and in defense, the maryland michael, are having a senior fellow and direct research and find policy at the brookings institution. very well, welcome to all of your and thanks for joining us today on inside story stuff. this is your report. i. so i'll start with you moving 4500000 desktop to really start claim number. it's obviously something very difficult to quantify. how did you get to that number? yeah,

this is something that the cost of work project has been working on for years. actually, i've been back built on the work of colleagues of mine at the cost of we're project for a long time. my colleagues need a crawford has generated and regularly updated estimate of what direct jobs. so these are people who are killed through the weapons of war through fire. the actual combat of war that now is up 2906002937000. that's the range that she estimates of the direct us. so my report builds on that it uses a ratio from the geneva declaration secretary at that con day wars. and there was an estimate of about 4 in direct dest for every direct us. so i dug in very deeply to research across many fields,

including epidemiology and public health research. and basically this is the best latest information that's out there. i daily an ideal scenario. there would be teams of researchers on the ground, local researchers doing access mortality studies. i going, you know, house house a house doing a survey surveys of, you know, who's died in the past x number of years to get a better, more precise figure. but in the absence of those studies, and those are really hard to do in war zones. there's an uh, you know, absence of, of birth and death certificates. and all of those sorts of basic census data, this kind of ratio is the, is the best that's out there. so that was how we generated the 4.5 to a 1000000. think what the so called war on terra itself is a bit of a nebulous concept. can i ask stephanie how you chose the complex that you've included? yes, absolutely. this is something also drawing on this cost of we're project framing.

so this is a, you know, over 60 scholars at this point from around the world, what we've done is we've said, you know, the us counterterrorism has played a role, not just enough chemist in pakistan and then rack those were, you know, the us led of wars and those places, but also a very significant role in syria. yeah, i'm in somalia, libya and other places, increasingly the footprint of the us work, so called war on terror i, it continues. and so this is really a framing that tries to look very comprehensively at. you know, of course, these conflicts are incredibly complex. we're not saying that the us is the only responsible party. we're merely point to the fact that there's been an intensification of the violence as a result of us counterterrorism efforts. and this report is really an attempt to come to terms and grapple with that sense of responsibility. show reba. i

understand you were born in the spread that you've been watching with people in iraq on the ground that in many years. but any of these numbers surprise, you know, the numbers are not surprising. there's definitely anything. uh and i am tempted to think that the numbers may be even higher, that the use may be of further lack of a veteran. conservative maybe. or just like stephanie said that, you know, there are many debts that are on recorded. there are many missing people for on recorded. i am currently working on a project on enforce disappearances in iraq. so that's another issue that has been a tremendously problematic aspect of life that many your kids have had to enjoy since 2003. so the number is make sense and i assume that there are much more, especially in countries, it's one stop and serial. now with its own conflicts going on, michael turning to you,

i know that you have previously said that the so called war on terra for all of its failures has had a number of limited successes, accidental as some of them may actually be without success, as you've described, i understand, has been specifically around preventing attacks on american soil. this is then the trade off, right? 4.5000000 debts. first of all, i want to congratulate stephanie and her colleagues at the watson center. they've done very good work over the years at reminding us that we have to take a broader perspective and understanding the consequences of war. and i generally agree with most of the methodologies we can talk about some specifics in a minute. but let me make that point 2nd, you're correct to argue or to, to summarize the writings that i've done to say that when we think about a 22 year campaign against, you know, solid prison or however you'd like to describe the broader al qaeda and related movements around the world,

the united states that it's western allies have generally been fairly fortunate in that the number of subsequent attacks on american or even european soil has been quite modest compared to the fear as we all had after 911. and of course, there have been some attacks, most notably, some of the ice us attacks in europe in the middle part of the last decade. but generally speaking, if you want to do a plus minus cost benefit assessment of the so called war on terror, which may not be a good term, but you know, is often still employed. then i think we have to say that western countries have done pretty well of protecting themselves, certainly from anything like the catastrophic tara we saw on 911 and then even in spain, in 2004 or london in 2005, some of the other attacks or the in bali, the indonesia in 2002. but i, you do very well and stephanie does very well. uh, as well as our colleagues in london to remind people the end of the course in the

broader middle east. people in the mail reminding me that these words have had huge human consequences ads that war itself because it breaks down society because it breaks down health care, it impedes proper nutrition. it impedes economic, wrote it, therefore it contributes to a lot of indirect depths that wind up our number and direct combat test and stuff in these right. just to remind people, it's roughly this 4 to one ratio. that's a very crude and rough number. it's a, it's an average across many different countries, many different complex, but the general message is correct. that war leads to far more indirect consequences than we even see directly on our tv screens. and that's a tragedy of conflict that should make anyone wary of war. the, the one last thing i'll say however, is that bearing in mind that the rock of saddam hussein was hardly a peaceful place. bearing in mind that the afghanistan of atalla bon was hardly

a successful country. it is hardly successful today that these excess debts that we're talking about often would have been occurring even without the us led intervention. so i know stephanie is quick to underscore that she's not simply blaming the united states or has brought her war on terror for all of these casualties. but i do want to underscore that when we think about excess stats, having looked at again a rock under saddam and his quarter century, a terrible rule or the taliban in afghanistan was the kind of health care systems and oppression of women's rights and limitations on economic progress that they imposed, it's not as if these places would have had peaceful unhappy futures if they have been left on their own trajectories of the last one. i would say, however, is that lived the strikes me as a place that probably would have done better without us. that probably would have truly been despite the market off these limitations and, and of his own barbaric acts at times against his own people levied. it was

a somebody function and country during his rule and it's been worse since our 2011 intervention. so again, we have to very down case side case. i agree with the overall thrust, but i want to bring reba in hand because it looked very much like she wanted to respond to that michael. i think the key point i want to michael insides is that the west has been capable of touching itself. that's the keywords itself, because since 2003, not just iraq in the south of the entire middle east and parts of um, south west asia have been unprotected and have been violated over and over in various ways. whether it's murder or rape, or torture, or continued legacy in river, variations of this violence that continues in many various forms to this day. and children are born from new to the sun rock with congenital birth defects,

because of why phosphorus use and depleted uranium. and you're ok, those are, you know what, those are like less. phosphorus is a legal use, sorry, it's a legal, chemical, diffuse and warfare out the west coast. certainly protected itself, but it has violated the entire region. again, i have to emphasize the word inviolate of both of them is a good example of violation of a country's dignity of a country. as a people's humanity. iraqis have been degraded as the humanized, over and over, and i cannot speak only about iraq. obama's have been degraded into the human us over the again, mike mike, chris and refugees from the reach of who have traveled to the west, which are now safe for. but they are a good once again, the human eye, some degree to the i, the orders and are treated as lesser beings. we have seen this house on, over and over,

and i will go back to the terms and force disappearances because when someone has forcibly disappeared, we don't know if they're still alive for their dad. has kind of, it has been accredited. that since 2003 in iraq over 1000000 people have been forcibly disappeared, so many of them couldn't be still the couldn't be still alive, many of them could, could be done. so that's another number that could be added to this report on the emphasis on the i do want to get into the very, very pervasive legacy here of the complex that we're talking about in just a moment. but before we get there, i do want to just ask stephanie about this, make sure that we keep talking about this one to for the rich to indirect that's ratio. that's the calculation by the geneva declaration, secretaries and you and body. right? but that's that measure of $1.00 to $4.00 as michael, so i said varies usually. so, and we'll developed country is you might have fewer indirect tests to direct tests, but in very vulnerable pull populations much huge and numbers in terms of,

in terms of that ratio. so really valuable populations. uh, at more risk, stephanie, that's right, that's what i found when i dug into it. there were, when i 1st started this project, there was some that that is an issue of some debate. but what i found was that was exactly that kind of the more impoverished population is to begin with, the worst effect the war is going to have. and, and that really makes sense when you think about things like, for people who are displaced forcibly by violence. actually there's a correlation of indirect task, but not with refugees necessarily because once people get outside their countries border, sometimes they have more access to the very minimum of food and health care, for example, but primarily for internally displaced people. i. the peas is a significant correlation between higher rates of indirect death caused by war. and

i and people who are forcibly displaced within their countries borders. and these post 911 wars have seen millions of people displaced. um so, so if it's really about, you know, lack of access to some of the most basic fundamental things that one needs to sustain health and life like clean drinking water, access to, you know, proper sewage treatment, access to food, just basically food hospitals, get bomb, people don't have access to doctors, people don't have access to vaccinations, all of these things get disrupted by war. and that's really what this paper was trying to point to is to, there are these pathways of reverberating affects that are talked about enough and, and that need to be, you know, included in a frame of the cost of war, of course. so one thing leads to another, i was surprised in reading the report, how little things like st. broken traffic lights will the stage of the roads can

lead to quite so many tests when you talk about the infrastructure damage left off to will. once you think about it, it seems obvious, but i don't think about something which people necessarily calculates as part of the, the cost of or 2010 to 2013 or so. there were as many, if not more dots from traffic fatalities, as from the conflict itself because of the state of the traffic systems in iraq. law. stephanie, one of the findings was that when it comes to interact debts that young children very young children suffer the most amount nutrition disease, perhaps that's not a surprise, but also women. now root. but i'm wondering if, if that resonates with the experiences of the people that you work with. um i, if i may revisit the point that was made earlier about ask your question and that's ok. there was a comparison made up between iraq during, for those to your office today. the comparison has been made many times by various people over the past few years,

claiming back around because i'm much different place today. and it was during the comparison. it cannot be made from various reasons because they used to be a dictatorship and now it's not a dictatorship by one party or one person. that is a torture in region run by a number of political parties that are working together towards or processing the people. so it's not, you know, like, and so don's time one could claim that it was a stable country and this was a claim the money have made to defend the by the district him. but also at the same time, we have very many armed groups going around around the country, killing into nothing people we have had, i the sure no 2 and 3. and i need to emphasize that over 2000 is the do you want me to go missing because of this invasion when the us

wanted to iraq? does all the us, the sort of the rocky army and the boy the borders between for us, which and by to tears caused them to iraq. so the invasion is directly related to too many of the problems that your office aside, his experience, the certainly the specific a rocky experience but in a number of other countries as well with there's been a number of other groups that have arisen within the space and the and to westman sentiments that all of this has created. now i know that the binding ministration has been very vocal about wanting to move away from this counter terrorism. small strategy, so to speak. michael, i'm curious about what the feeling is like in washington these days because it does feel like binding doesn't talk about the whole board on terra anymore. the rest of it because that in the going that way. but at the same time, we are still seeing as strikes. guantanamo remains open. what 21 years later is the so called war on terra? now, a war in secret is, 1st of all,

um let me just quickly respond to let rober just powerfully sign. and i take her overall point very profoundly that it's hard to say the invasion of a rock did any not good. but it is also important to bear in mind that iraq, under saddam hussein was a terrible place. and perhaps a 1000000 people died in the or on a rock or know that was over before the us invasion, of course. but with saddam hussein still in power and his son is waiting in the ways to succeed him. it's hard to really know or believe it, a rock was headed in a baseball or prosperous direction or even a site place for its own people. so i would, i would just keep that in mind. i'm not defending the invasion and i'm certainly not defending the way it was done. i do take her points on that in terms of whether we've now wanted to get away from this. yeah, i think you're largely right. and it's partly because there's not much to brag about right for all the reasons we've been discussing. these words have not turned out well, and the middle east is not in a better shape. it's not clear that it would have been in any better shape if we

had stayed out. so, you know, the middle east is a place where the united states and its allies remain challenged to find any policy that really contributes and that positive benefit. and sort of relative neglect seems to be perhaps therefore the overall approach we settle on where we do just enough to help keep our friends like the king of jordan and countries like all mine and morocco and his real stable and safe. and we look for the least bad way to handle iran and for the lease lease, sort of owner as way least demanding way to handle terrorism. whatever the threats appear to be great enough that we have to go in and do something for our own well being. but otherwise, just try it on our end and 8, our regional partners, as they handled the bulk of the job and it's a job, it's clearly not yet done and stabilizing. this part of the world is clearly not yet done. so the policy, sorry, michael, you say handling the job?

the bulk of the job but also taking then the bulk of the human costs to no doubt. absolutely, you're correct. and when i say handling the job, i should be clear and fair that it's not just handling out kind of an ices. it's also just trying to stabilize their very countries. and you mentioned, and stephanie wrote about yemen, for example, that's not necessarily award that i blame the united states for being a primary cause of but it's sort of, it's a word that should break all of our hearts as we continue to see this extremely impoverished country which has a lot of killing going on, but even more so a complete inability to rebuild the kind of health and doing education, sanitation capabilities that are needed to keep people alive in general ed. and so there's a lot to do, not just counter terrorism, and you're right, the costs are being born primarily by those in the region. well, i want to take a look at how the country, well, the us and all these countries can potentially move forward. but specifically in

the us, when it comes to accountability and responsibility back in 2001, congress passed the resolution, the authorization for the use of military force against those responsible for 911. but i believe the list of groups and individuals covered by that is still classified, so the public doesn't even know who america is actually fighting. and i know stephanie, you've been very explicit in your report, and this isn't about allocating blame. but you do is talk about a sense of moral responsibility. what do you envision that looking like? that's right. and 1st of all, i just wanted to kind of respond to, to michael's point to, you know, the pentagon and the us government is talking a lot about shifting strategic focus from counterterrorism to great power competition. but that doesn't match the actual footprint of the us countered hair, alvarado us, which is still in over $85.00 countries around the world. and what, what i think we need to do is talk last about strategy and,

and kind of shifts that can be made. and really more about the, the big picture for questioning and big picture critical thinking about us militarism in u. s. foreign policy. which is, you know, it is, this does the us really have a role to play in these kinds of, of, you know, conflicts and, and oftentimes i think even things that sound as innocuous as us security assistance. so i've, i've done research on the ground in west africa and you know, they're the kind of funding and training and so forth for local forces that the us has done as an arguably intensified the, the violence if anything, these are incredibly complex complex. so i think we need to really kind of rethink things that are really basic level um and, and part of that is starting to a conversation about reparations and about reconstruction about the, the imperative of humanitarian assistance. right?

this, you know, given this kind of the magnitude, the scale, the scope of that and suffering that have been cause, what then is a more response. and then you know, individual ends as a society, as a government. you know as our, our military what, what 2nd i'm, i'm going to interrupt you there. i'm sorry because i do want to hit funded from reba on your idea there of reparations and reconstruction and aid very briefly. but would that be enough? no. uh, resolutions are not enough. in fact, they would open the door to reparations. the claims from many countries around the world against the us for its various violations. and we also need to address what u. s. foreign policy means when it uses the word allies, to, for example, or from. so for example, the care and to our allies. i'm friends and you know, today's iraq is safe for them, but that's the error. but today's iraq,

he politicians use the same methods as about the strategy. and so they're just as crow, a citizen was the friends and the carriage. you are just as violent as the blockbusters him. they actually enjoyed canceled, shut down at some point. so the question is, how do you define that i want to do? do you define the problem and what kind of interventions are ok on whether or not i would argue that all interventions are wrong at this point, that you all should have one that's less than some of the wrong experience from the stand experience. and i think we need to respect the agency of the people and these countries and their ability to fight terrorism and what they do require assistance and the word against terrorism. then we can all of you know, other countries come off for the truck. creations is one way to go, although i know, like i said, it's not going to happen. uh, not in our life time. well, so much of this rebate. i do say this is about trust and agency here. and it does

feel like there is a conversation about intervention isn't and whether or not that's a good idea going on in washington dc. we'll be following that hit on al jazeera, but we'll have to leave that discussion that for today. thank you to all of our guest stephanie estoppel, michael or helen and ruba ali hoss any and thank you to for watching. you can see this program again any time by visiting our website. that's also is there a dot com for the discussion to go to a facebook page that's a facebook dot com forward slash a inside story. remember, you can always are in the conversation to on twitter. handle is at a inside story for me. and so as a whole team here, and uh huh,

bye. some the guides know, control 80 percent of haiti's capital and they're extending their presence to other parts of the country. people say they have had enough and have started to go after gang members. there's been fighting, going on between rival gangs, were told that members of the g 9 gang are not far away from here. they have set on fire houses here. they also rape and kill. i was a direction change, but i know the vision government doesn't. what goes is good for the balance has increase my noise meant in the country by 30 percent over 100000 children are at risk of dying because of hunger. the