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the of the, the old joining us here live in total key. i'm sammy's a, them watching a nation on a knife edge as the vote counting gets on the way. also a crucial 2nd round of voting into key is presidential election. let's bring you up to speed festival with the numbers now, bases with 79 percent of ballot boxes having being opened and i'll explain the terminology in a minute. and these are results according to an adult load states use agency. these are not the official final results, but they all the results being put out by the official news agency and they put a bunch of time out of the one ahead with 53.7 percent of the vote. they put

the challenge to come out. could i start all over in 2nd place with 46.3 percent of the votes. now this is once again, not oh votes have been counted. we had an announcement from the high election commission just a few seconds ago saying 25 percent of votes have actually been counted and registered. well, we can go now to one correspondence. russell, solve the. he's at the presidential palace in and kind of a sol as they watch these numbers come in. they must be in a good mood, hoping that this knife ends with a winful out of the one of the in the it's not me. so the holds here are quite high equity to the sources from akbar to you. they said that so far, i don't 90 persons of the worst have been come to an added one according to that matter. one is leading by 52.7 percent off. the power of divorce and that are the

reputations now in front of the presidential candidate or the presidential palace right behind me. and you can see that now they're preparing the balcony for the speech of president ad on this is quite unusual. somebody because usually president is on the additional pages that we're going to speech at that for 3 of our classes in, on cut out. but this time she decided to add the support this from the presidential palace. but the 90 wages stayed neck and neck and the race and around more than 10 percent off the world are still expensive to beat out are still waiting to be counted. so the race is going to go to all denied. but as it was that, that it was a type race in the 1st round of the election. so you have seen that both leaders have done what they finally push as particularly to appeal to the nationalist was and that's why it's not receiving. the truck is for the things has become so much anti refugee and then of the leaders we're trying to build up on the counter

refugee sentiments into a kid. that's why these electrons are not being close the worst by drugs. and maybe many people are medians that goes to whatever particular group here. maybe the most vulnerable goals are there is the refugees. medias of refugees that are living in cherokee and they are definitely watching is closer than anyone else. the menu considered this election to be took is most significant in its recent history . president project type add one of water in his tom where he began his political kevin, yes, he has received the emission in the last 2 back to support his believe he has made it more powerful and prosperity of person, doubtlessly shouldn't. i want the one to win for the sake of stability for this country stability and continued to have been the message to out adeline's election . campaign spots have to move them to dec using power. she now faces these most

difficult challenge. 6 opposition parties have joint forces for this presidential run of the position leader came up with a startled, chosen as a unified calendar to a 2nd. and the 1st round on may 14th. as it came to cast as what the now could. i was welcomed by your supporters. they are going more confident that you will be took is next president station the whole nation once change because our country once it's right, justice and rule of law. neither presents ad one nor the positions either comes down the coast security not forced to be in the 1st of all. it was the hi was 4 nations parties that force the election to the 2nd from the rise of the nationalist parties was the main surprise of the 1st wrong that has forced the presidential candidates to consider the election strategy to appeal to the nationalist. what's in the run of the physician leader comes down to the hospital because he's seconds on the campaign. on anti record you sentiments from center sent home media as will

still be an african and practice standard references. city is will go, is one of the main slogans. everything on beautiful. as a result, the leader of the international has reached the party. imitators the has on all to support for coastal boston no gun. and other alternation is presidential candidate who came to us in the 1st round. had decided to support president ad one in the run of the preliminary results with the last hours of the worth as cast their ballots. but this election is close. divorced, especially by medias or for refugees facing fear. that all certainty. this was sad that i'll just the right phone, kind of all right, good stuff, bad from are sol solved without reporting to us the from anchor. let's take this now to send them call. so let's use life for us from stumble and send them. there was some concerns about how people might react given that this was a polarizing a base. so come test, think of sort of the sort of reactions we're seeing on the street on social media

and so on. saw me so far. yes. the election campaigns have full arise, 2 sides of the participation, supporting the prism side on side. and these children just cannot close that all the sides. but after the 1st round was over 2 weeks ago, the tension has gone down. as so far. c within those 2 weeks, those 2 candidates didn't campaign as much as they said before, the 1st round. so i must say people do the episode for going to the little say right, sorry about the election and especially the for cannot go to start all the supporters. uh as uh the, um they, they are assembled and unplug up many years and he slipped. and now said he was a winning on the 9th of the 1st rob. this is a disappointment. of course. both later is coach federal wagner. john have been calling on their supporters to go to the polls cast their ballots because each vote

every candidates. so far we have spoken to people, they are called even in the folding stations. yes, there are some minor incidents. some attach some publications as c h b is if somebody has a also announced a video sowards. these have taken measures against them, but people are called they are waiting for the results. some of them are happy that president obama has the potential to win because he was one of the i have nearly 5 points. but on the other hand, there are many people who say they perform. this is a ship responsibility by going to the full eh, but say the best to change the system that has the number way for more than 20 years. but the which it for the best for the country. so this is a quiet call on waste each for each motor in suitcase so far, but only have their hand on media

a each far to each media because in to get we don't have any mainstream media left . this is, what are the stories about the turkish media? either you have to government media or anti government proposition media. that's why they are announcing the different sources about the election results, of course, until the last bullet is counted. we don't know the results yet, but so far the prisons are gone. seems to be running your phones based on the vote, having a being counted. but of course, everybody's waiting for the results that is hoped to be announced soon as it was a short to run compared to the part the 1st round that includes is parliamentary and presidential election. so i mean, i think somebody sent across all of that from assemble. let's take this back to encrypt at this time we're going to go to a hash him as a bar, right?

he's reporting to us live from the headquarters avail position that you had paid policy and hashem, according to the numbers coming in from the official state news agency. these are not the final official numbers, but they show a lead full president type out of the one with where we're at with the vote. counseling hasn't been finalized. i'm wondering how the opposition dealing with those numbers responding with these numbers. always seeing a repeat of what happened in the 1st round, where initially the opposition had their own projections as well. so i mean, this is exactly why the position is saying now in a press briefing by of these plus percent of the it shall have a 5 or the rock. he said that according to the data that we have so far, they think this is a, this race is too close to cool. and that it's pretty much you of this particular no meant to make any projections. and they said that they're not going to accept to

see anybody coming out of a balcony and making a victorious piece of record is exactly what happened during the 1st round of the like some, and present those of a uh like i came out through the balcony until to whose own supporters and as you understand. so, i mean this is we own you, this is going to be also a type of race. and this explains the on site is that you can hear from both kinds of the old castle and the old saying that we have, we need some time before we make an announcement. it's crucial for the opposition of this is why they have these things. i'd be happy to test with that representatives across the country, telling them that you have to be careful. you have to monitor the ballots. the votes count. you have to make sure that every single both accounts they do one does that. this is going to been extremely delicate task for them. they are desperate for every single boat, because they know that for them to be able to make

a difference for them to be able to win this particular advice, they wouldn't, it wouldn't move those and fashion just doing this full. that message. it is crucial. not only for the opposition, it's cru, crucial that hobby of 6 the line. so table to 6, it's crucial for can i start all new personally, right? indeed suddenly this is someone who has been ruffling with a general deception even within the opposition allies that it's very difficult for him to win an election to the point where the elias was on the verge of collapse in march. when a key part of the, in the outlines, the action of a bunch of said that she doesn't want to speak about that is that all are needing the vice against president for us to play it as a lot. then she does not see change her mind. when careless,

doubtless says that he's got into a point new members as president. so candidates, particularly the 2 most popular members of the a just have a, it's about an oval of the day. it'll be stumble and most of you have asked, they might, they may yet of, i'll cut off. now. it is definitely the biggest political 5 in the can be in his can be, it has come out with a promise to the took his people. that's when the space that's here, where we stole the parliamentary system. that's who would fix the economy. he says that he's, that economy sends that for he has the key to solve the economy. and that's what was set for him. policy that's who will move to will close that towards the united states of america and europe because he says that is going to be a strong guarantee to protect democracy into okay, you know, he's desperate to get those to nights. he doesn't understand that's a when will to be significant for him to continue within the

elias and to move forward to be able to deliver all the promises he made. a loss is going to be a massive setbacks on me for different reasons for him. for his leadership of the happy and most importantly for the alliance of 6 opposition parties who would have 2nd thoughts about how to move forward. and this explains why every knowledge that you with his, someone from the opposition, particularly from that you have to say, we have to wait. don't listen to all the polls. don't listen to the state, run down to the news agency. you would have to get back to us. we are the ones who would tell you tonight who is going to win this election? well, i shouldn't even by the opposition's projections of by saying this is too close for

them to even cold. are they reflecting on via the pivot towards the nationalist camp and reflecting on how successful that's been? that's where we're at the building to an adult of the state news agency. almost 90 percent of violet boxes have been open and according to their projections, well type of the one is still in the lead. i was talking a while ago sent me to a member of the jet happened basically he said that they have been talking for quite some time about the need to reinvent the old position that you have that in particular. and particularly when they saw that they offer national is have been gaining ground in different parts of the country. responsive to ask questions about how to move forward. and that traditionally speaking visit the job here is that the support base of the you have to have always been hovering around something like 20 percent 25 percent of the national votes to move forward to expend that support base. they need to come through the void, the 4th base of abdul them,

particularly among of the conservatives. but they also need to build bridges with the alternation always without upsetting the code. this minority a better delicate task, the better it's us. tough task ahead for them. they do understand the complexity of the game. nope, this is the biggest hope tonight. they say that they were hoping that people would change their mind or last. but if they were hoping to see people saying that it's about a time for a change, they do understand that it's going to be an extremely difficult task, a difficult challenge for them to win the hearts and minds of those those. but i've been talking to them, i've been saying that what, what, what's the reaction sofa with 90 percent of those accounts that they say so early to say who's going to invest space. they say that they've been confident they would be hovering around 4950 percent of those even move them that they say,

we don't want this to be further manipulated by any policy. we continue for as long as it takes tonight until every single ballot is counted $35.00. so it's a 5 by our own people before we can come out publicly and knows the final results for this election. all right, thanks so much. i sure most of the bottle reporting to us live that some of the do i have a headquarters and anchor good stuff. they all right, let me bring you up to speed with some numbers and where we're standing now. an interesting one. according to the high election commission, best thing turn out was that 85 percent, you remember in the 1st round it was just over 88 percent. so we're still looking at a pretty high turn out. that's one points taken consideration. also that is not as and where we're standing with the vote counting well according once again, these are not final results. these are the results coming in according to an adult

. oh, that's the official state news agency, but these are not the final official results that same sofa type over the one is in the leads with 52 percent of the vote come out of color shot. all those numbers have risen a bit. so 47 percent of the vote at this points out of dollars, official news agency is saying 91 percent of those ballot boxes have been open. all right, there's a lot for us to open that on pack as well. let's bring in a guest to joins us here. you know, make sure student goes, have you back with us. how can i by senior advisor, override stonebridge crew. so i'm looking at the numbers. how cons i'm thinking that gap is strong, could it, hasn't it? yes, uh, although in terms of the number of votes, the still see 2500000, which was exactly the gap in the 1st style. but not all the world's concepts. so no, not all of us have being counted right. well that's not it. well 91 percent 91.6

percent of ballot boxes have been opened. i'm not sure if that means everything is being counted again because a high commission made that point by now. exactly. but the, uh, it looks like add on is on track to please a another 5 years by dates you think so this is what it looks like because uh, you know, this then and that balance 52. it's just 48. which means that he will be excited to just forward to a 3rd the case, which will probably mean that we will see a little more muscular foreign policy. we will see more likely, i see him having to be more inclusive because the difference as vivian discussing throughout the day is not as significant as i think they would have liked to be. okay. well, hang on, hold your whole since called because we may be getting ahead of ourselves a little bit. i know we'll come back and talking about the margin issue. i thought

before we do that, to this point, fuel votes has been counted from urban areas, then the national average. right, right. what does that tell us about the rest of this vote counting which direction it might go? disassembled on color is me. ask if you looked at the results from the 1st found as well as the 2019 may and elections color style those candidates headphones. so as they go up the numbers, we would more likely see a benefit on behalf of the police that all the so in other words, let me tv simplify that. the guy probably shrink a little further. yes, that's what you would like be. see. all right, but turn out level pretty high, right? 85 percent by especially by international standards. people with most devices, right. i mean trucks loved to go and boats and they showed up again and have it down there. i mean, every 2 weeks you have elections in this country forgot. same as the sound it seems

to be at the same level. right? $88.00 was at 80 percent last time. yeah. around 88. okay. and so now i think what was the uh, disappointed from the or positions perspective is really in the south eastern eastern part of turkey, the book to turn up as much smoke that even the 1st time, which i think is starting to be settled. i'm always seeing a repeats of that test, and i know we've been looking at some maps together just yes, a moment ago in the 1st sound. i think the tories waters did not show up because if you compare the turn out in cities like the advocate or one that was about 10 points up to 10 points of defense. and i'd be seeing as he paid off the same, the development screen, the national turnout, average envelope was seeing in the code to share rights and was seeing something similar along those lines. so far we have time slides. this is all the wrong preliminary. and it may be even worse in terms of the disorders shy of

bay from the poles. and this has to do with, can we start all those utah to come up with the there's a nationalist image and we've covered that before. so basically does that suggest that color start, all those pivot towards i mean. busy the nationalist by being careful a choose my was cafe because this is not done yet. we can say definitively yet, if it costs him, he lost more than the game, but we can say it seems to have cost him some of the kurdish folks. is that what we're saying? i think that would be very fast. and that if you looked at the percentage like push that older $144.00, and he's around $47.00. so $47.00 plus. so he seems to have picked up up to 2

points, right. if you look at the so in other words, while he picks out those 2 points from me to a stuff on the nationalist that's, i think that's one way to look at it. but i think that definitely the that is the issue of choice motors. hey being being disappointed at the last minute alliance and the change in tone of coalition that all those states and getting a that aggressive advice on migrant aspects. let's come back to your favorite topic . i know you love. so watch the module. it's all about the module. okay, why? because if, for example, i do like you to kind of my view is to talk about the margin of victory or whoever wins. this is the big that has a huge margin that's going to be in pool. this is a very poor rise function like you know about 50 just so the closer it is to the numbers like 50 to 48. i think the more i don't want to delete to be inclusive beating that she will need to model likely drive

eliasis with the view position in the parliament, for example, to bowl for constitutional changes going forward. but that was definitely a start wanting to have his numbers, compared to 2018, had gone down. so and that had to do with the economy, which means that with this close numbers, the economy may have cost him. the difference between now versus 2018, which may bring up tim cole city considering going back to more orthodox policies beating that make on see those increasing interest rates meeting dad, he made a point more market defend the faces that will build credibility with the best this evening that she may sit to

a point more independent leaders for critical the solutions like central back. okay, but let me just clarify all that you've just said in the last on. so to my question is built on the assumption of calls, but out of the one wins this rice, right. and we, we can't say that is amounts to officially. yes. right? it does look like he's got a lead. we can say that perhaps it's more likely at this point, but he's going to win it then come out because i still don't know, but they're still counting votes right at the same as in last time. because uh, as for example, the numbers, the poles open in the samples, they'll go higher, we will see the difference between either one. and so we set all those string to and solve which will probably make it even less in terms of the margin. and which, which will need to make add on more can see that it's for moderates. my close of all right, thanks so much for coming over here to talk to you i'm. we got plenty more to talk

about. but the plenty of issues that how come come with that? one of the key issues in this election, of course, has been the issue of refugees. millions of them in sort of kia many of them from syria. well as know, it quoted much looks and this package, that's an issue that subtracting attention on both sides, the, to a kia syria border. the serious who have experienced the horrors of war firsthand. eagerly await news frontier care. many here have family members across the border and want to know how the selection will affect them. i don't know the whole phoenix deal. i thought i'd be in the i have many relatives living inter kia and working to support their families here. the calls were hearing about deporting syrians who were living there would have very bad consequences, especially on a humanitarian scale. and so the on the display serious have been supported by humanitarian aid coming through the north and turkish border. but the fear that it

might disappear for good was the call from a cs printing no matter who wins. we hope dr. case approach will not follow the approach of reporting syrians which will have dire future consequences on the humanitarian sector. here as more than 1800000 people are already living in refugee camps. the turkey of selections could also alter the regions political landscape. president ridge of favor of the gods governments has sent troops in open syria and has been coordinating with this you in the opposition for years. a political active as believe the policy is if lever wins will shape the future dynamics of the entire region of on the how much it's okay. so typically selections of great significance for the syrian issue. these collections have an effect on syrians, especially in the north and on the syrians presently in take a, as for us as a political body and it live. of course we believe that these evictions are decided

by the turkish people as no since you have continues to these with the devastating effects of 12 of your war. many here wonder what the surface elections will mean for them in syria as both of the market. there is a semblance of normalcy as people go about the daily routine. when you ask people to hear what they think of the selections, we were met with both optimism and concern. but for now, it is all to learn what the outcome of the voice will mean for serious and best will arrive is gone 3, pretty much the 0. it live both in syria. all right, let's bring you up to speed with where we're at with the vote counting right now. according to all of those state news agency, this is the official state news agency. this is not the final official results though, according to that projections of how vote counting is going to tell you about one is still ahead was 52.43 percent of the vote. come out of color,

start all it is behind him. with 47.57 percent of the vote. this projection is based on 94 percent of ballot boxes having been opened. so still some ballot boxes to be open. still some counting to be done. but the majority of the boxes have been opened at this point. this is the picture that's emerging. let's uh, take the conversation now to set set up, dump it out to join us once again. thanks for coming back to professor of political science is i've been explained to everyone that it's a university in this tumble good to have you with us. so 1st of all, let's start with these lights is projections. is this getting to to difficult to see a color start all new when at this point, if 94 percent of the ballot boxes of been opened and this and the dollar, the official state news agency is saying is about 5 points. he's about 5 points

behind type, otherwise. yes, sees about 5 points behind, but 2000000 votes behind present much same, pardon me. so in the 1st round it's not a gap that cannot be closed, but it looks like the one is keeping the leading position. so we may see some surprises, but otherwise, if you don't get surprised, it looks like i don't is going to keep his leading position in the end of the 2nd round. to have a surprise as you put it, set to tell us what does that mean? does that mean he needs to wait and virtually every, every votes and every remaining valid function that hasn't been opened yet? well, it's not about 6 percent of ballot boxes that haven't been those. i just want to get a sense of how i'm, i'm of a surprise he needs right now a change in his, someone on for a for instance, right over to.