the and we always include the views from all sides. i'm harry davies, and the kimberly in west and australia or indigenous communities, attaining it with sciences to create a new approach to marine conservation land rover even. but the bottom i'm, i found you on your reporting from brazil, you're going to try this protecting biodiversity pro, defending themselves against the legal invaders. the price on out to 0 in depth analysis of the days headlines, china cannot maintain its current piper aggressive author in the south, tennessee, and expect the philippines not to continue to drift closer to the american inside story on challenges era. the

carriage on spring day with the headlines not on al jazeera tension is building and the costs of in the town has which on ethnic serbs are gathering outside the city whole that's being guided by cost of in police. these live pictures. now, serbs are angry about the election of ethnic albanian is i've had bonnet consultations with police on friday. so he is present projects half as well and has been re elected in the country's 1st run of presidential election as far as economic recovery. and there was a ton of a 1000000, assuming refugees, the tech has controlled safe stones and syria of the time we own the only when is the best selection of the entire nation is to keep the winter today. the victory belongs to everyone. it belongs to our democracy. the only users are terrorist organizations propping against due to me, as for the responsibility bestowed upon us by our nation,

that i know how banks on our part, we are angry if anyone. now it's time to leave old disputes behind and united behind our national values and dreams. center custodial has more now from miss trumbull. what's the many expects from prisons are gone, is to better the economy. he promised, during his bulk on the speech, he promised that he is going to further the economy, bring down the inflation se broke down the interest. but his policies are also the how he will manage. this is still questioned by economic expert opposition. candidates to come out because it's thorough has thank to support his. he said the votes was the most unfair in years, but he promised to continue his struggle to change or to describe as an a for a tyrant. government us present started by this urging members of congress to vote for a deal. he's negotiated with republicans to raise the debt limits. they're expected to vote on wednesday as increases the amount the government can borrow. but it also

costs federal spending might kind of has more from washington dc, the president biden making clear that this has to be a bipartisan action. in other words, you're going to have to get moderates from both sides of the aisle republican and democrats. voting again together against the flanks on the right. and on the left, the progressive democrats, frank, frank, uh, the conservative republican frank, some of whom may not vote in favor of this legislation. so the key issue is to get those moderates both republican and democrat, together in the house, and then again to get them together in the senate to be able to pass this legislation against the objections of some who are unhappy with the agreement that has been reached in crane's military service, it shot down more than 40 russian drones and cruise missiles above keith. unconfirmed video showed the roof of the house damaged by daybreak is the 2nd

consecutive overnight by raj and 15th attack on the capital this month. the japanese government says this will shoot down any north korean, this all disguised as a satellite. a soft, appealing young and notified type q. it's cutting to the once what he called a but a tree stuff like the next 2 weeks schedule thing it's, it's a north korea launching a ballistic missile for quoting to be a satellite is a serious provocation to our country security. but the corner you and i show up it's such launch is also violate, relevant to united nations security council resolutions, prohibiting any launches by north korea using ballistic missile technology. even if the quote i'm put a satellite that you need me day to is according false to don's warring size to extend the week on humanitarian c spot. the choice between the army and the rapids support forces is due to expire on monday evening. us. on monday, march 2nd 2 years since you've seen the admin, henry and the poly tenzing. no. okay. became the 1st people to reach the summit of

mount everest. thousands of climates have since scale the humiliating mountain of hundreds of died. climate change is not making the climb even more dangerous as warming, temperatures whitening progresses and bring running water to previously snow. we slopes those all the headlines you can keep up to date with all the news on our website that i'll just say era dot com. the news continues here and i'll just here off to the bottom line. stay with us. the a. hi, i'm steve clements and i have a question. western powers are still all in for ukraine and f. 16 fighter jets are finally on the table, but will the rest of the world go along with the plan? let's get to the bottom line.

the ukraine and china were high on the agenda and a group of 7 meeting in hiroshima, japan last week, ukrainian president below them here is a lensky, was invited, and he got a promise from us president joe biden, to allow training on american made f sixteens, which is probably a 1st step toward getting those fighter jets to ukraine. up until now the us didn't want to send those weapons to ukraine for fear of escalating the war because they can hit targets deep inside russian territory. the g 7 attack china for using so called economic coersion to force countries to bend to as well. and china responded by calling the g 7 as a quote, exclusive block that's not representative of most of the world. so. 2 is the western agenda heading and can the g 7 set the agenda for the whole world without the serious push back from the global south? that's the g 7 really even matter anymore. today we're talking with in bremar, president and founder of the razor groups,

which studies political risk around the world. and he's the author of a great book, the power of crisis. and thank you so much for talking to us today. about g stuff is i called g 7, g 0, g to whichever g is we have, but we just had a g 7 meeting in a row shipment. and i would love to get a snapshot from you right now on whether you think this meeting was relevant to any of us is very relevant. um, and the g 7 has become much more cohesive, much more united, in part because we are living in a g 0 world because there is an absence of global leadership and the presence of threat and crisis geo politically, the russian invasion of ukraine. the chinese government becoming much more economically powerful, but not aligned with the united states or its allies in political or economic system. those are things that are deeply concerning to the advanced industrial

democracies, the principal members of the g 7. and you saw that on display in her ocean that you saw that with the invitation of zalinski and his personal sit down meetings with every single one of them. and the extraordinary amount of economic support and military support that's being provided. you also sought with the greater cohesiveness in concern about economic coersion as the g 7 puts it from china and greater alignment of us and, and other g 7 countries in their china policies, their security policies increasingly their industrial policies in some areas of the economy. so in that regard, the g seven's very important final point though, of course, biden had to cut short his dinner meeting at the g 7 with the heads of state and then cancelled the rest of his trip. why?

because of political dysfunction in your town, steve, in washington, dc, and the debt limit crisis that is not yet resolved and very quickly approach it. so is this feeling to you like a cold war because it stands out to me. that right now, china is the world's 2nd largest the economy. india is the 5th, the bricks, countries, brazil, russia, india, china, south africa, are planning their own summit soon, and 19 other countries want to join up with them. are we seeing the world divide itself between the g 7 pals of the united states and everyone else? i think the answer to that is no. i mean, look, there is, unfortunately, there's much worse than a cold war between the g 7 in russia. it's a hot war just being pop largely by proxy. and of course, the fact that even f sixteens are being provided going forward and even 3 months ago by and said that could be tantamount to world war 3 shows you just how the gloves are off. but on china, there is

a recognition and you saw this from janet jo and secretary treasury just a few weeks ago giving a speech for the you asked me to solve this from biden over the weekend, saying he thought us china relations would improve. but from a low base that there is a recognition of independence between the g 7 and china between the us and china. the term of art is now d, risking but not the coupling. in other words, us in china today have more trade than at any time with each other. but at any time in history and well that doesn't sound like a cold war. and if the americans didn't want a cold war, none of the american allies would want it. and of course india you mentions in the brakes, but india is also in the quad and all of those developing countries, many of them have very good security relations with us, but they have very strong economic relations with china. so it's a lot more complicated than just saying cold war 2 point now, but there certainly is no trust between the united states and china today. and

there's increasingly very little trust between the g 7 and china. given that these are the 2 largest economies in the world, that's not a comfortable position to be, you know, with, with no offense towards possible. i know guinea drive love. i don't think many americans had any idea. president biden was scheduled to go there until he canceled the trip to popular no guinea and also to australia. and we, since we're in the popular and again, he has his, uh agreed to become a site of american naval bases. and it raises this question of whether this encirclement strategy of laying out basis military capacity alliances, you know, around china, which is a chinese paranoid fear, is actually something they should be fearful about. what are your thoughts on the military and circle i'm in of china by the united states and its allies and popular a new guinea. we need to recognize that china today is the dominant trade partner, economically for a large majority of all the countries in the world. and that does not mean that the

americans are being encircled economically. it just means that china has a strong and robust economy that the state is driving, and they are investing outwardly everywhere, and they'll be the largest economy in the world, probably by 2030, 2030 to the united states is the dominant military power in the world. the us out spends the next 10 countries in the world in defense. the next 10 countries combined. okay, so i mean, if that's true, if the americans are that far ahead of everyone else and military spending, then of course the majority of military base is out there are going to be american . and what's gonna happen is the countries around the world will be more aligned with the united states on direct national security matters. and they'll be more aligned with the chinese on economic matters. and that will be messy. that will be messy, but that is not a cold war, and it's also not encirclement because the fact of american military dominance is

not in any way preventing the chinese from having these extraordinarily robust economic relations. just so happens. but chinese power is primarily expressed through their trade and commercial relationships. not surprising for the state capitalist political system, while the american influence and power is partially giddy, illogical, but frankly, that's been weak. and the lot given dysfunction at home in the united states, a lot more of it is about it's military presence and dom and. and so this should not be startling to anyone that pays attention to the lead tables and which, which countries do what? one of the things that's confusing me right now about chinese relations with the west are mix signals. so in one hand, you have this summit about concerned about chinese economic coercion in the world. also trying to sort of wrangle if you will in, you know,

basically try to prevent major investment by the west in chinese capacity in high tech areas in quantum, in a i and others. but on the other hand, you've got joe biden comes out and says, you know, we're going to see it a thought in these jelly relations. you're going to see a lot of our cabinet officials meeting their counterparts with china and trying to basically take, take the us, trying to relationship into a warm or track, then the cold one. it's been on since the spiral in. so what's going on as well in the same you would just ask me in your last question, hey, on the should the chinese be worried about military and supplement when the americans and the g 7. talk about chinese economic corps and it is the same concern . it's just from a different lens because the americans don't have the ability to do global economic policy through the state. they can't build a built in road the way the chinese can. and the chinese can't build credible

military bases around the world or a defense export strategy the way the americans can. and it turns out that that reality makes both countries kind of uncomfortable. but despite that, the americans and the chinese boat see that they need each other and that, that need is not going to go away. so just as there's a lack of trust. and just as this concern on the economic and military side, you also have both countries wanting to meet and wanting to talk about those areas where there can be a level of greater cooperation. and if there is a level of greater cooperation, i mean, the trade relationship is enormous cooperation. we just don't talk about it because the politics are so dysfunctional. climate clearly, both sides would like to see more global economic stability, the reaction to the many banking crisis. but the americans of the chinese don't want that to blow up in front by the way, even the debt limit, i mean put in an am sure would love to see the debt limit blow up in the face is

a bite and, and us political leaders, the chinese don't want to see that because the chinese don't want a severe us recession because they're so dependent on the properly well functioning of the, of the a global economy where the u. s. has the largest participants. so it shouldn't surprise anyone. but both the americans and the chinese would like a relationship that is more stable than the politics are presently driving your disk, arriving the situation in which 2 adversaries arrivals are joined at the hip and are mutually dependent on each other's, you know, survival, not just survival. but actually needing to thrive, but it raises another answering question. you know, i'm sure you read every word president biden says, just like i do. and when he was in hiroshima, he talked about a company micron, a chip maker that has r and d facilities, production facilities in hiroshima, japan. so wake up and guess what? china has now declared mike ron. uh, as,

as not having met its security test and it is now banning micron from all of its infrastructure. what are the implications there? is this just to play around, walk away and what we've been doing to basically target walk away and this is their response, or do you suspect there are now deeper measures that china is going to take about, you know, um, a more, you know, adversarial treatment of american tech products. well, 1st of all, you're right in terms of adversaries or competitors joined at the hip. the way i like to think of it are parents, with a love has left the relationship of their married still and they have kids. and no matter what they think of each other, they both really loved the kids and they don't want to screw the kids up. and so as a consequence, they're going to take measures, and they're gonna act in ways that help ensure that the kids aren't spart mistreated or that they can still grow. and you know, that's not easy to do when the love is left a family relationship but,

but there is, i think, a level of recognition now the americans have levied export controls on a number of high end semi conductors. but the u. s. considers to be dual use, in other words, useful for economics and military purposes. the chinese and response have levied sanctions against mike crohn. and mike crohn does not produce the same high end advanced chips, the t as mc and taiwan does. the difference being the china has other sources for those same chips as the american company, micron and they and the americans of already told the south koreans oh, provide some of those chips to china. hey, you should join with us and not providing those ships because the chinese are hitting us and you know, the danger is, you don't want to go too far from dual use technologies where there are legitimate national security concerns to broader containment policy on the economy. because

then you end up hurting yourself. you end up taking away from the inter dependence of the us china relationship. but not only ensures that you continue to behave in a civil fashion towards each other, but also creates more growth, more well, reduces the cost of goods. i mean, remember those you asked me about my crime, but you could have asked me about the trump carrots on chinese goods consumer goods, which the chinese then also levied in return against american goods and who got hurt the powders, the consumers in the united states. and the citizens in china who have to pay higher costs for their goods, but you know, bite and has no way of on doing those tariffs, even though it would be good for the economy. because he knows that politically he would get hurt for it by the poles and, and of course, by the republicans by his opposition. so you, you do end up cutting off your nose to spite your face and some of these

conversation. and of course, all of those are not particularly helpful when you're trying to wrestle down inflation because they actually help contribute to inflation. another question recently i interviewed robert o'brien, the former national security adviser to president trump. and you know this along with the other fact that the house select committee on china recently did a war game exercise, looking at a chinese invasion of taiwan, how it would go, what the u. s. could bring to bear and guess what? china, the high cost, but china succeeded us, did not block that invasion of o'brian told me that if there were a successful invasion to tie one, that no element of t s. m. c. the greatest semi conductor manufacturer in the world would be intact. and i'm interested as direct quote, and i'm interested in what, you know, as you look at it, is this, you know, a basically a race where we're beginning to look at churchill saying about the, you know, the french fleet. we're not going to allow that to fall into nazi hands. are we

thinking about extremes scenarios that this is really about advanced chips and not letting china get control of that industry? well, so on the one hand, it's fairly obvious that it is a fight over taiwan and the chinese were about to take the most strategically important company in the world for themselves. the americans aren't gonna sit there and say, oh, it's fine for you to have it. and that's leaving aside the, the, the flight of talent that would leave. so yeah, i think it's pretty clear that it would be this corrupted slash destroyed. i also think it's highly irresponsible for the former national security adviser of the us to be opining on that topic. in the same way that a sitting and national security adviser should not be in my view. i think you should sort of, if you're in a position to make that decision, you know, you, you should kind of keep that quiet because it only makes the relationship worse. difference between a, an analyst i had a policy maker but, but in the war games i've been involved in between the us, china and taiwan. the way it usually plays out is not military confrontation

because it's obvious to both sides that it would cause such damage economically. and rather, the chinese leveraging the power they have, as i've already mentioned, to you the economic power. and of course, tie one over, whelming lee is dependent on mainland china economically just as they're dependent on the us and australia and others for their security. and so what that means is if you're trying and you want to change the status quo, oh, you put export controls on time when these companies, until they behave in ways that are more patriotic and loyal to the mainland. you know, you take actions against time when he ceos, you say you're gonna cut them off from mainland chinese trade. and that way you get bass. lee more influence over the behavior of the time when he's political system and of their economy without suddenly threatening war. that you're probably going to have mass a negative impact from right. and you put much stock in the west response to the

china building wrote initiative and what they call the partnership for global infrastructure. does that have any chance of meeting anything? nope, it's the united states as a capitalist free market economy, it does not drive significant private sector investment and it doesn't do much public sector investments. so it is useful at the margins that will be some, you know, high standard investments that help to move the needle in transition to energy economies, for example, and some areas of high tech. but on balance, if the united states is going to have more influence around the so called global south, it will not be by competing in the areas where the chinese are dominant structurally dominant. it'll be in other areas. i was recently in warsaw, poland, and also talent, estonia and national security forms, and i have to say that among european friends, the feeling was pervasive. one of thanks to the 9 states were already done ukraine, but also frustration with what they saw the by the administration did the ring on

key a weapons decisions and whatnot and marshalling. you know, the support that is a landscape needs. they feel to push russia out of the picture and they, they fear that america isn't designing what may become or at least acquiescing to a frozen conflict, something like north and south korea. this was a pervasive view. and they said in that world putting wins in the west loses, do you have thoughts on that? well, 1st of all you were you said you were in poland. and in, in lafayette estonia, sony assuming sonia tollen. yes. uh sonya. um i, i would point out that those are 2 of the european countries that are most strongly aligned with defending ukraine and more hawkish, lead, disposed towards russia than any of the other europeans. it's the baltic states, poland, and the nordics not so you weren't in france, you weren't in germany. you shirley warrants in italy or spain. and i'm saying that

because i don't want people to think that that perspective you just gave is a broad european perspective. it is not the european perspective as fairly divided on military support for ukraine. the americans are course doing more than any other country by a long margin. that's not surprising, given americans power, but also the americans are the ones that have been pushing and they are more closely aligned with the countries you just mentioned. the ones i just mentioned if that's particularly true now, because of biden's willingness to support the storm shadow missiles coming from the u. k, which is a precursor to the americans, providing a tack comes to ukraine. also the willingness to train ukrainian pilots on the f sixteens at the precursor to providing f sixteens and allowing other countries to in other words, the gloves from the united states on providing military support to ukraine are off . and you'll see that that support you will see military and security guarantees. and of course, you will also see economic support for reconstruction. and all of those things are

meant as precursors for what will be at some point, some form of negotiations between the russians and the premiums and the americans want the ukrainians to be in a much stronger position militarily, economically, ends up automatically before they start engaging in negotiations, that's why the americans have waited for the counter offensive. and that's why the americans are stepping up the military support they're providing for ukraine. so right, i actually think the concerns that you have raised are diminishing and, and as of the g 7 in a row, shamal and are likely to diminish over the course of what we hope will be a relatively successful ukranian counter offense. final question in and thank you so much for your calendar and all of this, but i agree with you that you did. the g 7 is as i've seen it, you haven't seen it. there's a line and a long time. at the same time. it's concerns about china, it's very big concerns about russia. russia is now the most sanction country in the

world. i don't even know what more you can sanction. they've found $200.00 more ways to sanction russia. what, what's remarkable to me is how easy it is in this world today to en, run anything that g 7 does. the russian economy is resilient in the face of all this. china has its own forms of resilience and it just brings me back to this question of how much traction does the g 7 really have in. and i say this in a world so respectful of you looking at the g 0 realities out there. do they fundamentally matter anymore? when you can in matter they matter less? the g 7 used to be it. the g 7 used to run the world. and then the russians were brought in after soviet claps the g 7 plus one, and that didn't work very well. then you created the g to 20, which is 20 to 20 largest economies, but they weren't the line. so the g 22 could couldn't do very much. they didn't have the same ability to move the ball. so yes, the g 7 still matters and if you sanctioned the russians so heavily,

of course that means the gas can't go anywhere. it gets flared because of the europeans, don't buy it. you can't build infrastructure anywhere else, but you can't do that on food because they're important for the global south. you can't do that an oil because others will buy it. and so it is more limited. and so the g 7 talks people listen, but let's be clear that you know, in a relatively short order, the bricks are going to represent a larger percentage of the global economy than the g 7 does. that's even if you don't expand the brakes and you probably are gonna expand the brakes. so what does that mean? it's more complicated, and there's a lack of global leadership, and that's why i wrote about the g 010 years ago. i always learned from in bremar who is president and founder of the razor group, an author of the power of crisis. thank you so much for being with us today. and we would say, so what's the bottom line? it was almost 80 years ago when the global packing order was established with united states and its friends on top. now that order is coming and done. old arrangements like a group of 7, which started after the arrow boyland bar go with 1973 sort of look like

a relic from a museum. it's true that those countries represent half of the world's wealth today, but they've got only 10 percent of the world's people today. china is the world's 2nd largest economy in india, is 5th. but they're not members. these days, china can retail progress on just about anything. and other countries like brazil, india and russia, well, they can flex their muscles as well, and used to be that whatever the western powers and it became the rules of the world, those days are really gone. maybe we're heading to a g 0 world where no countries in charge or maybe a g to world or china m e u. s. set all the global deals. but the reality is the sun is setting on the g 7. and that's the bottom line, the this is in region, that is lovely, developed thing,

but it's one also that is afflicted by conflict. police collapse. we try to balance the stories, the good, the bad i've been, and the people allow us into their lives. they gave me 10 to minus he asked me to tell this story as a man who don't mean a to the reality politics for over 30 years. i'll just 0 will tells the extraordinary story of nobody else who's advice, exile of the death of 2 king a day. while the king was reading through the 1st to a switch where it was tonight, who was prime minister 14 times until he's lucky eventually run out. the rocky power broke on how to 0 the

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