it's every young football is doing to 10 professional living most appreciate the tour, my autonomy and thoughts. very mindful. told them issued out to 0 wells full as 3 talented as a place from the as they struggled to fulfill their own position while working to suffice. i've been on to low income funding, so i am obliged to work and had a waiting on the bench on now to sierra foreign ministers of the bricks. group of nations have met to discuss expansion and waste the challenge us dominance and the global economy. the block shift the balance of the world's trade and power, or is it a political pipe dream? this is inside story, the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm how much is your foreign ministers of the bricks? nations have been meeting and cape town with south africa hosting, fellow members, brazil, russia, india, and china. the group again somewhat in formerly in 2006, with south africa joining 4 years later. but in today is more polarized geopolitical world. the bridge club has become more significant for its members. some like russia believe it presents a way to forge a new world order. one with less us control, several countries that's in diplomats to south africa this week are keen to join the block. we'll discuss what's next for breaks with our guests in a few moments. but 1st, this report from michael apple on what was on the agenda in cape town. the fine ministers of the bricks group of nations have called for a re balancing of the global order away from the west. they've pointed to sanctions against russia for its invasion of ukraine. and the deepening antagonists is in

between the us. and china, as fact is behind this thing, king host, south africa has called for more dialogue. we believe the world needs to talk much more saying economic as well as political adjustments on needed. we see a world which has faults incorporation. we were aware that developed countries, i've not met the commitments to the developing world, the end of trying consistently to shift responsibility to the global saw bricks, countries all home to more than 3200000000 people around 40 percent of the global population. none of the blocks members in the g 7, the group of 7 advanced economies to increase its influence. brakes is considering bringing new members into the full size, surviving saudi arabia, united arab emirates, and iran have expressed interest. i believe the large boons of the brakes will be

beneficial to the brakes. countries beneficial to developing countries and to increase the groups and patients you for this of this mechanism. and also to tie the pick up power off the brakes to serve the interests of developing countries. the group accounts for about one 3rd of global g d p. the impact of us interest rate hikes on members, economies, and west and sanctions on russia have prompted discussions, reducing reliance on the us dollar. we had the one of the senior executives of the new development bank briefing. our meeting on was that the bank has been doing, looking at the potential use of alternative currencies to the current internationally traded currencies, or at least between your talks in cape town, were overshadowed by questions about the way of letting me put and we'll attend the lead assessments in august the international criminal court has issued an arrest

warrant for the russian president, accusing him of war crimes committed and occupied ukrainian territory. this creates a diplomatic problem for pretoria with waste the nation saying food must be arrested if he lands in south africa. mike level for inside story. all right, let's go and bringing our guests in cape town solution. i do a senior research fellow at the institute for global dialogue, an independent foreign policy. think tank in london, chris, we for chief executive officer at macro advisory, strategic consultancy. that operates in the razor region and in washington dc. surely you a political economist and senior fellow at the harvard kennedy school, a warm welcome to you all and thanks so much for joining us today on inside story. surely let me start with you today. so foreign ministers of the bricks group of nations are presenting themselves as an alternative to the g 7. as

a counter balance to the west coast, the block actually shift the balance of the world's trade and power, or is this merely a political pipe dream? i think it's entirely likely the brakes countries is expending as we speak of my 2 more members are looking at joining. but as it stands right now, it represents about 26 percent of the rosie g, d p on mom and on turns on p p p. basis, it's already a larger economic block, then the g 7, a represents about 43 percent of the world's population, 80. so substantial global power representing the immersion world. but they are not the rival to the g 7 by all means they are alternatives. and the compliments to the g 7, the brakes block, they trades and less amount themselves and they trades with the g 7. and it's hard to imagine today that the blake brakes locked by themselves, is going to pull the strings of the global economy with thought the west. but in

the sense of reflecting the interesting desires of the emerging world, i think the brakes are going to the voice of more strongly and creating more institutional and multilateral architecture, to reflect that desires are that come from the so essentially 43 plus percent of the world's population. chris, we can't talk about a block like breaks that russia is a member of without bringing up the war in ukraine. so i want to ask you, how much is the ukraine war driving what is going on internally within brakes right now? how much is that shaping the agenda? i think it's been a capitalist, uh, not necessarily the conflict itself, but just everything that is happens around the conflicts, particularly that the sanctions against russia. what it's done is it has created this dialogue with in a bricks of the need to kind of have a stronger voice. it'd be like a loving power against a g 7 because

a lot of the narrative that you see for sure, of course, and the rest of the media and the chinese media elsewhere is about the fact that the g 7 group seem to direct everything dictates. it z like the policy with regards to economics, the control of the mass of the world bank and also on the environment to, etc. and that, that, that's as crazy as a lot of resentment in the emerging world, amongst bricks and, and if you like the, the defective of these to aggressive sanctions policy has isaac cetera, right? that, that step debates. so i think that's, you know, what we're now looking at in terms of expanding the brakes with more countries. it is not itself directly a consequence of the conflict, but it is a consequence of this emerging big picture growth to factor countries feels that they need to have stronger, a stronger voice to stronger representation in order to, you know, have to have their position. like taking into accounts and not just dictations by,

by the g 7 and then the that's the narrative. and so the conflict has 70 accelerated scenario, high on the agenda, this meeting of the foreign ministers of the brakes nations is the idea of expanding brakes membership, whitening it's membership, there been at least 19 countries including saudi arabia, iran, the u, a. e and indonesia and others that have expressed interest in joining break. so i want to ask you, how likely is it that the groups membership can be expanded in the short term, and what's the prospect of bricks growing quickly to a good day mohammed, i think it's, it's very likely that it will expand, expand in the long term but i think right now the foreign ministers press briefing as well as what was mandated from the 14th week summer last year to try and develop a framework of criteria standards. principles around how expansion will be managed

and logical into and who will be qualified as part of it expanded critics. membership is something that hasn't really been decided on at this meeting. and of course they have until august of this year, when the big summit happens in johannesburg to come up with the framework. so it's actually a work in progress. and i think for the foot full, for now, i think the expansion is really around. how would it be defined in terms of the quote, the nucleus of the, of the 4 of the 5 permanent members of the brakes and how that will then evolved in terms of the relationship bringing in other members, as you've mentioned, 19 countries including saudi arabia and i think they're looking towards perhaps other structures where they may be perhaps at $2.00 to $3.00. 04, you observe a status and then get a gradual kind of pink or mental approach to that expansion. i think the biggest challenge for the briggs right now, the 5 countries is not to expend fast. because then expanding to foss also means

that it may end up in a situation where the 5 countries may have to think about how that would impact on them. as a new piece of, i think these are some of the criteria that we will have to be considered in terms of a model in a frame book. surely another thing is being talked about a lot right now when it comes to breaks is the possibility of creating a new common currency for international trade as an alternative to the us dollar. also as a way to avoid the impact of sanctions over the war in ukraine. this would be known as the dollarization. i want to ask you about how feasible this is. how easy and or difficult would it be as it will be feasible, but yeah, so it'll be a very difficult and complicated process. the breaks, common courtesy, was recently proposed the by brazilian president of the sofa,

essentially to create a car and see a by the brakes block on top of star solver and currency to be used for the blogs trades. and so he's actually a per se, like what you said, mohammed's not only does put uh, the webinar thing, the dollar in terms of price sanctioning, russia had sent a cautionary note to, to these are you merging countries for potential sanctions on themselves? but also the sharply raising us interest rate has made essentially old about the economies extremely bought or bought over the past year to this over reliance on the us dollar. not only they have to almost all raise interest rates in order to maintain the stability over the exchange rate, but also they have to pay a higher interest on their dollar data. and so all of these have called for an acceleration to seek alternatives to you are the over relies on the us dollar in global trade and investments. and so breaks a common currency is going to be as it stands right now,

a courtesy that facts by any changeable assets or has the gold has been talked about other precious matter with, including ray or irs interest pay assets. and so the coal concept is also gallery different from the current understanding of it, either you install or being the global reserve car and see which is fact essentially by the face and credits off by the us. so solving capacity. and so the whole design uh, like, uh, other speakers have talked about my takes time to be calling me latest, you know, in terms of the institutional building. there are hard elements and soft elements and all because it's the ability but also with the norms of values. that are shared by the sod law, it is going to be significant. it's chris, let me get your view point on this. um, you know, trying to unite breaks, member countries fiscally trying to create some kind of common currency as an

alternative to the dollar. i mean, is that from your point of view, practical is that realistic? these are economies that are very different. you have different economies, you have different interest rate. how difficult would this be? well look, i think the short answer is extremely difficult and we'll take a very, very long time. so supporters of the idea do points out to the fact stats? the european union did come together. they did create the euro, it took a long time that works idea of ops to goes. it's a process to still continuing, but it was done. then they use that as a model. so, but i should say, of course, there, you know, that when you look at breaks and the do potential expansion, you know, it's, it's a much more globally spread or diverse group of countries, geographically, as, as well as in terms of economic so, so considerably more difficult what we have seen over the last year, year and a half particular of course, is russia doing a china boat doing more bilateral trade using their own currencies. but,

but even here, russia, for example, is able to settle the decks with the chinese one. but recently, the foreign ministers being complaining that there are billions of dollars worth of indian rupees, which is owned by russia, which has been used to pay for important energy. but russia cannot get us out of india into the russian economy to, to be use. so i think people had this idea of listing view of creating this common courtesy, like say the, the euro. but over in practice, over the last 6 to 9 months, the ups to goes for actually getting that done has become so much clear. so i would say actually, now the mood in moscow is that this is something that they shouldn't be pressing because it's not going to happen to easily there are more pressing objectives, such as creating, going to trade block or maybe political unit, creating an alternative currency. it's as far as i can see,

is actually slicked down the gender even over the last 69 months because of the practical considerations have become more obvious. so initially, i asked chris earlier about how much it surely, you know, i think somebody i care, i think there's a, the mental difference. the bricks, current c is not in the stands are the same as the creation of the euro. uh, in the sense that there is one common cause and see for the blog which will essentially strip away all of the essential that can dependence on the sovereign courtesies of by the 5 countries, etc. it is a common courtesy that is using parallel to the sovereign currencies. and so i think talking about that you kind of money for union and it's entirely i'd be a mistake. i don't think that's what the brakes are talking about right now. it's an issue i could ask chris earlier that chris, let me get back to me just a minute. but as a new show, i had asked chris earlier about how the warren ukraine was impacting brakes at this particular moment. i want to ask you about something related when it comes to all

this to south africa, because you have these allegations of russian war crimes having been committed in ukraine. and as a result, the international criminal court issued and arrest warrant for russian president vladimir putin over the allegations of these war crimes. as a member of the court, south africa would be obliged to arrest mister putting if he attended a brick summit scheduled for august in a johannesburg. i believe. so. how much of a diplomatic nightmare is all of this for president? still around a poser right now, and it's a serious predicament because according to all obligations under the rule of statute, which is domesticated, you know, they're just nature as well as all commitment and obligations under the i. c. c is that we have to basic t, abide by that. the is this questionnaire, old windows international law, prevent although serenity. and this is the big challenge of things that actually because facing on the predicament that the government is,

is trying to decline. because at the moment, the challenge is one of the options it present to, to, is to, to attend the big summit. and again, there's uncertainty around that as well. but if it is to be a bricks and attendance, then of course by all means that i have to abide by international vacations. so again, to all of these different types of speculation that's emerging around where the sit applicant may be thinking of, of with media reports suggesting that's it. i think i'm maybe thinking about asking china or another big country that's not a member of the i see to host the the summit. but again, the suits and make signal to the rest of the world, particularly in the fact that this is a somewhat desperate to be posted in class and often the whole in the cold with 19 so often last year we're trying to posted it online as a which was the last time that the summit was posted online and last year, this time around it's in person, it actually raises

a lot of important reputational and some symbolic. most of the breaks itself, as a, as, as, as it strengthens internal. ready so the challenge right now is to what it may actually be a question that may be posting this to put an estimate he will attend the person on the day to representative if i may also just chime in on this question of the bricks, currency and the issue around the i think it's also very important to put on on, on, on into this discussion. the question of what was adopted last year at the brick summit in terms of breaks pay a kind of into payment settlement system with a local currency. and i think that is the sense that you get when you speak to the officials from so from the said african side in particular. but also the ship is that i involved in this whole preparation of it is that there is a caution approach. of course moody approach to whether you want to create

a good global cut and see there is breaks a brief cut and see. i think like know, the biggest challenge for the brakes is to understand how they reduce transactional costs. i need to know how do they reduce the kind of 2nd re sanctions that prevail and quote and catch them in the sections of the cert. also something that is, is critical because one of the challenges that the brakes have brought up is the transactional impact that they face in terms of monetary silver in a t. and i think i'll cut my colleagues are leading to that in terms of deciding the, the new list to pull code for the summit in august, which he used to choose to lies in good, the aspects of bricks paid to maybe also digital currency platforms as well. chris, you want to jump in before, so please go ahead. yeah. what i could do, i could brought it out of it. and then to say that the, the agenda to moscow moscow is, has a much greater sense of urgency on breaks than the other country. so you can

publish, like said, rush, it wants this to happen quickly and wants to expansion to happen quickly. i would very much like to have one currency in one's system and then that's that they're telling you. but that china perhaps is further behind, is that more patients would certainly like this to happen, but doesn't want to push it to aggressively. and then you've got together countries, particularly they, they piece of. so we call them 10 to the countries that want to move much more cautiously because they don't want to create any risk with which the 7 with us are or would europe in terms of trade. because these countries relation to so much more court. and so i think therefore moscow is a jet view of breaks could very well g, rails, this whole kind of ambition. if, if it's a chooses to be too aggressive. mm hm. definitely wants to go to the, the summit in johannesburg. we know from, from us co sources that they are putting

a lot of pressure on the government in south africa to find a way to, to attend without shouldn't be interested. for example, talk of change and that low to give solver, it just stays immunity, etc. repeating absolutely wants to go because for this summit's to be held virtually woods. and what we hear of, of officials in moscow. woods, kind of, oops, the efforts to create and more powerful and more relevant breaks. so if i were to be held online, or if, if people have to send a deputy, are you clicking to attend the field? talk momentum. the last she really wants to go to, to this, but as i say, i think in general you have a rush. it really pushing aggressively on the number of fronts, the courtesy being one unexpected ocean as quickly as possible. right. because most jen does differently just say, but because of the conflict, they want to have this as an alternative body to g 7 where where but rush is

a member of and, and to use that. and this will serve as a counterbalance with the west, but i think russia is no, i was just stick with everybody else. everybody else wants this to happen on a much more slow, more cautious basis. right in moscow does. but surely, uh, we can see it just by looking at this conversation this far. how much of a shadow is, is caused by russia and what's going on in ukraine is how much that's looming over everything when it comes to breaks. but i want to look for a moment more closely at china, and i want to ask you that, you know, when it comes to developing economies in the world, how big a factor is china currently and, and how much are these economies tied to china? a chinese, so roughly 2 stars over 2 stars all started. he cut on the got put amount of breaks block, and he certainly has a lot of feet and all the way in terms of trade with the developing world. but in addition to china, so you can on the hard part, i think today it's important also to look at china is that for in delivering the so

global institutional building a very mine to the new development bank which was formally breaks bank was set up in china and is cardi headquarters, e. shaw? hi. and so in china, it's a quite the central components of the so new emerging global architecture on a much larger basis of a, particularly not only you know, within the play of the brakes lock, but also with africa, which i see on with matching america. and i think it today in terms of china as aspirations in developing this, a global multi lateral architecture. we're looking at china, be one of the major global economies of that that's on the cutting edge of the launch is almost offering digital currency. and so multi lateral cars, the platform that will be embrace that by the breaks block is not just a car seat. it also includes a cross border car. so you clearance the system as an alternative to the us led to swift. and that's going to be the brakes pay is going to be very much all boxed by

block chain technology. decentralize the nature of interoperability. and so all of these are technological components have been studied and carefully researched and experimented by china. and i think a lot of these experiences will be shared as a, as the whole multi lateral architecture starts to take form is an issue. i want to turn again for a moment to uh, south africa's role in all of this. what is south africa getting currently out of being a member of breaks? i mean, what are the advantages of it's memberships and, and also, is it vulnerable to pressure from the west to turn away from russia? and i think, you know, so i think a finds itself in these crosswinds because the one hand b and the brakes also kind of elevates the agency that for you being just discussing around the kind of structural constraints that the international system finds itself in. the deepening geo political dimensions, the inflection point questions are all global governance reform. and this is being

consistent in terms of sought after because commitment to multilateralism. and also understanding all these different institutions and the global architects and used to reform or transform in terms of recognizing emerging co blocks and emerging call centers of influence in terms of what the brakes and perhaps other senses of influence in the global sales rep are present in more, in more fundamental terms for set up the goods about africa, it's about the put up the african continent and how much agency the applicant clouds in the past. so utilizing the brakes in that raise important, there's been a lot of debate about with us that africa. so it could not make transactions and benefits of the brakes could pay us to it's relationship with the g $7.00 countries . and in particular the you in the us, particularly a lot of the fact that these bigger markets, then this is where i would see is much more focused on centralized. and then given the fact that we may not be getting as much of

a transactional value from an economic perspective from the brakes, then while we're willing to compromise position. but i think it's much more than that. it's, it's, it's the intertwining of both the jo, political and did you economy. and i think for the 1st time. so that's because now placed in a very good use position because it has to test something that international law has not been able to do. and that is a risk, a sitting head of state expect it of state attends the brick summit. and this is another kind of a position and predicament that piece is the. so asking government, i think on the situation that is, i'm, i'm, i'm sorry, i don't mean to interrupt you, but we're, we're running out of time and i just want to ask one last question to chris chris. we just have about a minute and a half left. if countries like saudi arabia or the way e were to gain membership to breaks. how does that, how does that change things for the block? it changes it enormously. i think the breakfast is, has been regarded as, as kind of a fringe organization, despite the fact of course, the china india,

the 2 biggest countries in the world are and if it's still fringe and regardless range by g 7. but if we were to expand significantly with new countries, like saudi and indonesian others joining, then it would have to be taking a lot more seriously. and i think this is the whole objective. we put rest as objective on site, but it's like china and others. the objective is to have a kind of a more equal voice when it comes to setting the world agenda. chris, is it something that you less than you are the dominant big institutions like world bank i m. s, the global climate, gender, etc. either these are we hear these all the time, having a bigger and more global bricks means that the g 7 countries, what happens is discuss these and share more with breaks that that's the view. i think that the supporters of i think your brick net now have all right, but we have run out of time, so we're going to have to leave the conversation there. thanks so much to all of our guest solution. i do, chris, we for and surely you and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again

any time by visiting our website. i'll just or dot com and prefer the discussion go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ag inside story. you can also join the conversation on twitter, handle this app t j inside store for me and how much enjoying the whole thing here. bye for now, the, the the allegations of the plug with a secret chinese police stations fits shock waves around the world. when

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