the facing realities does the un fits of purpose was like many critics sites just pub solution doesn't get anywhere near enough done to the amount of money that is put into a hard hitting into b. c. think about to the lines of washington enough for money to go on its own and to build its on thoughts providing on for centuries, people have been taken care of are. so i have every confidence that future generations will do it as well via the story on told to how does air fresh fighting and testifying in eastern ukraine and more attacks inside russian territory. as speculation grows about keith's counter offense, is the war and ukraine entering a critical stage for just another phase with no insight. this is inside, so the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm how much enjoy them. new friends in the ukraine war, anti criminal groups, launching attacks and border regions. drone and artillery strikes further into russian territory and your daily bombardment of the ukrainian capital civilians and both countries are bearing the brunt as the war drags on. we'll be exploring the latest developments and a prospect of this conflict coming, coming to an end with our guest and a few moments. but 1st, charles stratford has this report from keith of what we've seen in the last few days and weeks is an escalation, fly both sides. really what we understand all attempts to talk and supply lines and weapons stores the ukrainians. coming on, the heavy, bombardments all the cruise missiles and so kind of causing drones by the russians and various locations across the country and the ukrainians targeting we understand this apply lines, for example, the northern crime it or and in that pull the city of baird dental school in the as all see which was occupied 5 of options in the early stages of the war. we

understand that these moves are or in relation to the build up is long expected ukrainian counter offensive accounts of offensive. that analysts will tell you is going to be a huge challenge to the ukrainians. they talk about fees that so the, the spread of some of these weapon rate that is being supplied by ukraine's elolize along a 1000 kilometers. the front line could be a bit seen. they also concern about the element of surprise. of course, this has been planned for months. it's given the opportunity to the russians to begin the defensive positions in various areas. and we've seen satellite imagery of that highly socialist talk about the difference between sequential and singleton is military maneuvers up until now both sides have used what they say. i see quite short moves. that's basically the use of ox, hillary. and then what app, how they've got, for example, to bombard areas in the enemy's territory before they moving forward with infantry

at least the saying now what's needed is more of a civil tamia. so tank that is a lot more complex bringing in various different strands of the military takes a lot more planning is a lot more risky. let's give you an example about just what kind of threats the ukrainians potentially all facing. analysts say that the kill ratio in a situation like this is very much, always in the defend this favor. of course, that's russia in this instance, a q ratio of around $3.00 to $1.00. so there are affairs wire, lace about manpower, about getting the ukrainian forces getting as many of them as they can to operate this huge. this minus task one thinks the shoulder is that ukraine's allies want results off to having your best it so many tens of billions of dollars worth of military equipment and training will be on the side of tens of thousands of ukrainian soldiers. they want to see results, and there are many people saying that the outcome of this counter offensive will

determine the outcome of the will child stuff with the inside story. keith, ukraine's military capability before the war was worked by russia's, but the international community has changed at at least 40 countries have made significant donations. for us is by far the largest contributor, sending weapons, ammunition, and military equipment worth $46000000000.00. by the end of february, this year, the u. k is the 2nd biggest donor, it's assistance amounts to $7000000000.00 and includes fighter jet training. germany support involves armored personnel carriers, drones and left for 2 battle tanks. a package totaling $3800000000.00 to date. while poland has said equipment in ammunition worth $2600000000.00, it also plays a vital role in logistical efforts to deliver international military aid to ukraine . so let's take a look at some of the recent developments on the ground, the commander of ukraine, the ground forces says his troops are advancing on russian occupied bust. moved in the east. moscow announced it had taken the city in may,

after months of brutal fighting with thousands of casualties on both sides. elsewhere in the don't ask region, russia says it's forces have stopped a major ukrainian offensive. part of the in the ask is under russian occupation. the rest is still under ukrainian, control pro ukraine on the groups have attacked the russian border region of belgrade, which has been bombarded over the past week. keith is denying involvement. all right, let's go ahead and bring in our guests. in moscow, we are joined by public feldman, our a defense and military analyst. and athens is disappearing off and truly executive director at the institute of international relations, specializing in foreign policy and european affairs and in bath in the u. k. is patrick period defense and security analyst at the university of bath and a former british army officer. a warm welcome to you all and thanks so much for joining us today on inside story. patrick, let me start with you today is what we're witnessing now. the start of the ukrainian counter offensive, is that what we're seeing?

i think so. yeah, it's the next phase. the 1st phase is what we call the saving phase. where are you great and was trying to set the conditions as best as possible to facilitate the next phase of this phase is basically reconnaissance and for probing. they're using their ground forces, especially in the southeast and the division between zachary uh, glass online. they were talking um, around a tangle of uh, novo dentists and they've had some success there already. some reports, credible reports suggest 5 to 6 kilometers david bond since yesterday. and so i think that's where we are. they're not committing all their forces. they're attacking actually in a number of different places, some to the north and box moved as well. and they're basically because they are small. and of course they're trying to find a weak spot. busy pro pro joel russian forces a way and then they would get their heavier forces and try and exploring any breakthrough that they can make. a patrick. i also want to ask you about what we're

seeing in terms of the far right russians allied to keep that have been launching these cross border attacks into russia. and also the drone attacks that have been hitting cities like moscow. do you expect that that's going to continue that? uh well the builder on res rage and in that area are essentially that they're raised by the, to the volunteer for on the, the foreign legion. the volunteer for much less seems controlled than the uh, the legion which is sort of flies in kind of in hand with the brain. and um, but yeah, that are the design of the for us is doing virus versioning degree uh, on certainty, in the border area. and also to force russia to send more troops down to draw a drag them away from other areas where the offensive is going to be trying to break through. so that's what's going on there. i would expect that to continue. we've seen that space if you continue, never a few days they'll have those forces will have to retreat in the face after a while, but their, their, their job at the moment just

a great and much habit because they can. and um, in terms of the drone attack on moscow, i think that was part of basically tit for tat for the heavy wave of the tax. the key of that experience. and then the ukranian gentleman said, you can expect us to hit bob. um the next morning, you know, there was between asian, probably more like 30 drones flying into size wise moscow. a number of them were shopped in, but some of them were and i think the target there was really at the, the leads the rest of the lead to live in that area as opposed to the or real russian people ukrainians trying to, trying to bring the more home to especially of those leaders and also maybe so some sure, so subdivisions, sorry, and problem. let me get your view on this. so when it comes to drones strikes that it hit moscow when it comes to far right russians allied to keep that have been launching, attacks across the border. first of all, how does that change things and, and you heard, you heard patrick there say that some of this has meant to embarrass president boot

and is it an embarrassment for only yes, it is an embarrassment that cause the cartridge stirring public opinion in moscow and that a moscow is that will, shall baldor of bo gave you pray and you're not back though. of course, these were well nice rather small drawings and no one gone to you a is seriously injured and it was mine or damage it. ready kind of positive of psychological. ready warfare more or less the same with the trash border raids by the like a 0 or a you and that's uh, weird shirt. go some pretty a getting problems. no, not for you. we are grabbing your holding any time the 3rd trailer and the russian side. but that's not their object therefore, jammed up, they would most likely brittany and so that they could draw some russian reserves

from the main back of fuel that's going in the south where the now in the summer campaign, everything is going to be decided, i believe the outcome of the whole costs are just fine to be decided this summer and it sounds so if you're free and problem, let me also ask you, you know, ukrainian counter offensive this have been talked about for quite a while. now rush obviously has had time to prepare. how prepared is rush to be preparing for the summer time being how they are prepared. so i know how effective we will see in the, on the battlefield. your premiums. what do break this very good rock? oh mo bile and the g rectory during the summer campaign which begins now and contrast to october something where it says dry summer weather. yeah, you can move heavy equipment truck some time,

some other heavy stuff over fields and dirt roads. you can go mo bile. last to on some of the premiums manage the spectacular mo, bile offense. and from that you may have tried to pull something a bit bigger now they have more equipment of the russian stuff. read more troops. the russians after billy just stop to your brain in a sense of give them a bloody nose, heavy casualties, a small success, and then maybe your brain will be ready to end this floor on russian terms. it basically means this freeze of the present status quo o, a frozen conflict. and this mean, obviously, we can't have this discussion without talking about nato. from your perspective, what is nato's view of what is currently happening? and i think that i, i am not the result of shit anymore, but the something,

i mean i can into practice the alliances, my positions. all right? we have, we have here some talk to the get off. and these thoughts are in favor of ukraine. ukraine has a model advantage in the school. they are fighting for the country for the dougherty. they have, as a additional board of, of the western countries was yours and the main to allies, i think 90 to is of the month the should could a better result them better because repeated. they are very often. that's where we stand by your brain as long as you think. ringback patrick, let me ask you a question about the fact that the west, the nato as well, you know, they supplied all these modern weapons to ukraine. but one thing i'm curious about how complicated are they to use? because we talk about tanks being delivered. we talk about perhaps f sixteens at some point being given to ukraine. i'm argues training being provided as

well. yeah. the key on most of them, to be honest with the training for the time cruise is already happened. and you know, it happens in, in europe and a, uh, those, those forces of gone back to your brain with their times. you know, there's 230 western time supply to you, brian is they have inside the country now over 1505 armored infantry fighting vehicles. the thing with the time. so i can just say that it just takes it's, um, because there are different variants, there's more leverage, but there's also the challenge of twos unable ones in there as well. to us. i mean, it varies. you know, they've got different logistical jameson. different means not when you don't have standardization. that is just a bit of a pain logistically, but it's not impossible. and it does, you know, those are what actually all of them names, logistics. i wouldn't be surprised if there was an, you know, independent contractors hire didn't to help them to have the expertise to know all

the parts and the working or the ends. that's one of the roderick that i did want to follow up with you about that specific point. i mean, do you believe that there are specialists or contractors or former military officers from western countries that are currently on the ground in ukraine, helping either to operate or to repair this equipment? i don't know. this is a short on so i don't know, but i wouldn't be surprised if they were in, you know, because there's nothing far enough essentially. so, but that's so that's another way of getting rid of the problem. the 16 issue. you departments are being drained in europe and in the us as well, but that takes a fair amount of time. my understanding is if you took an english speaking very um current. i mean, like the fine or pilot from the brain and air force who is literally being flying his own just a 100 a few weeks ago and then started to train them on the 16. it could take anywhere between 6 weeks and 3 to 4 months. that's the best and that would be the opposite, the fastest you could do. and of course, other pilots who either have less experience or in training,

it will take longer for them to know. so it depends on the pilot, and of course the counselors get, you know, 3 or 4 by this to do this, you need to move be able to do it. so the systems work together. and so that will take, uh there's, i'll take longer, but i wouldn't be surprised if we started to see. yeah, 16 come in towards the awesome of which there's still a bit of time for potentially another offensive. and really interesting thing about this in terms of walker as the west and most companies will not be fighting mean either way. ukraine is. yes, they can do combined arms in terms of artillery drones and times things intrigues. but we've never committed sources for their, their support and even like air power, energy. and they don't have that at the moment. so it's a very brave thing to do as well. just mean a, let me get your perspective. uh, do you think that were any closer to seeing potential formal mediation or formal piece talks when it comes to the ukraine conflict, or are we farther than we've ever been from that possibility?

so i think all the major powers of time to, to negotiate the solution, the fingers got the initial new she on, uh, we have, we know some loose when the time being i going into for it to the ukraine animal friendship has as a, as a very serious effort to come to negotiations with an advantage on that date. so the movies in my view would be the most complex negotiation often via and the cold war. similar means to the negotiations that took place in the ninety's. after the dissolution of all the shall review again, because ukraine cannot lose. uh but, but of course they have to accept some pleasure situation on the ground to say the least. uh what, but i sure would that say, is your question mark. i don't think that i asked you, i will accept the thought that was the sheet and i don't know if it thought

somebody she would be in favor of disability in europe in general. so i see many behind this change negotiations for the time being and may be, i mean, we can, we can, for she, uh, 4 months bigger. she ation, we, by the end, the lee and the problem, you know, reason both in europe and in the united states. by the end of the year, we will enter a pre elect. there are periods, i mean for us is all the use. they would have brian mothers and for europe may be, i mean our colleagues, so i'm not so familiar with in europe the lead disability change next year precursor leader in elections. so this is something that maybe in be a negotiation. we've got all some patrick, i want to ask you about the fact that the commander of ukraine's ground forces has said that you creating and forces are moving forward near buff moved from your

point of view, is there a chance that ukraine could retake best mode and what would that mean and all of this? well firstly, i totally would agree with what the status that i think that's all and uh, in terms of the movie there, does it like for example, in the last 24 hours, you have a need for goes in the head of the wagner cmc. instead, he handed over a village, just north of the box, moved to the russian army, and then the russian army was to under pressure and from the premiums. so we'll have to see exactly what the situation is that, but it's certainly not stable and judging by well, i don't even know if we have getting for going to stable, judging by his rounds on social media. but the from there does not seem to be the same as the russians would like. it is possible them to get and that would be a political cause as being sort of symbolic and it's being invested in so much human capital in terms of the desk for russia turned into something much bigger than it actually was. it needed to be in terms of military strategy and that would be able to talk to them as well. so i mean,

seeing fighting to the north of there as well and showing in solid are etc. so just to see, but it would make perfect sense to, for example, from a ministry perspective to try to in circle or, or go even further behind the pin. so behind box moved and then start moving behind those lines either to the north edge of the site that will make perfect minute for your sense of it. just as a question of whether the defenses are too strong. there are no probable. i'm curious from your perspective to know um, is there any willingness on the part of the russian government to try to enter any kind of mediation or formal peace talks when it comes to the conflict in ukraine, or is that a non starter at this point to the official one of the crown mondays, the pressure is ready to basically negotiate. but right now there is no one to negotiate with the president to bring in that leadership is not ready to negotiate anything from the russian point of view because of russia demands. but more or less

a lot pressure state them and the, the united with the mother. why shouldn't be recognized as russian during treat meaning crime, he is on bus and the 5 service of $5.00. yeah. her song. so basically it's kind of freezing the present state, just quote, that's why i brush it was more or less one. and once you bring it does not want a tool. i'm the banquet and you are a boat, not all you don't want that either. it was kind of for the award as they say russia . so that means right now it's not much talk is going to be $55.00 instead of 12. it will be decided on the battlefield of this summer campaign. oh, how things turn out by order them and when they want to brain turned everything the see your mother and my mobile i work with who are fair is impossible. again,

i believe yes. negotiations kind of big. yeah. but right now of the terms on which they could be held are totally not fully understood because 1st so have to see how this kind of being a goes through this being a um, what must the level of concern be among you? member states right now at the start of the conflict, does anyone think this would last this long? or i think it's very high, the level of concern because of the for launch function. and we goes all that on should be about the end of the school. and you know, maybe it's not the diet, it's going to shift lunch that inflation the euro, but it's still a big problem. price or something i'll get, i'm not going dall, energy and prices as well. so i think the public opinion in europe is going to get the uh, from the launch going to andrews,

gonna be doing the finance because as i said, you will be in the election of loans in may 2024 and, and you'll be election of not of great interest in europe any way, but i believe that a single video research shows wouldn't change. so i don't know if they will have the opposite diag number dime and the political instead of just the image of the machine to, to go on to the table of negotiations and provide their solution. because these you, i was to be part of the visual solution. they have to offer the carter to grade. they don't have to isolate that. i shouldn't be as at home because otherwise they would grade a black hole in euro. so it is very complicated and i'm afraid we don't see any very, really clear positions on behalf for you brianna union. i'm probably you heard this be another talking about public opinion in europe. i'm curious to know about where public opinion stands in, in russia right now. and also,

what is the situation in russia right now when it comes to the economic sanctions that have been imposed of the knowledge such as, of course, uh, receipt or is the thing though uh, the russian. the. com. i mean, tennessee or with g b, e is not as much information as not bad for you. a bad as it could be. a, there's a lot of defense spending, which means that g, b is growing as that always does. and then the kind of war situation. so right now, the public opinion basically supports of the war effort. supports the government that's afford to spread the gym. but what happens if they're serious, russian, the problems on the battlefield that can change dramatically. but the thing is, as it is right now, as a why the russia should fight on, then go to negotiations,

a firm position of strength to kind of secure the present situation. the kind of cease fire, frozen situation that's going to be more or less supported. i believe just by the end of the year there will be some kind of pause in the finding. simply both sides will run out of arms and munitions lodge rate. there's price as the logistics on both sides. so some kind of pause is call me, but they to come after a very vicious summer campaign. this means that if the counter offensive is not as successful for ukraine as they would like, how much more pressure will be applied by the you, by the us, by nato, for president's zalinski and his colleagues to enter into negotiations with president. the 1st of all, you know, this excess of innovation has its own, not the. i mean you grand has come,

she's up to your friends, she would be successful and wash them. she would come to dick. this assumption should been we, we are not working here about the big, big stories for b could the sheets. you see how it's going, we'll look at on step by step i, i hear as a patient about the us and you are pushing towards the extent i don't know, but they would like to she and negotiating solution. and so i believe that they have made it clear to the ground near me that she reveals. on the other hand, the sheepish viper restoring country show the way to expand our means of pressure can be effective. it's a question about the,

let's see, i mean how it was for the time being. if you do successfully now, then maybe in days a week and a have a some change, a lot teacher possible. um, when it comes to weapons stockpiles where things stand currently for russia, as well as high school, a lot of weapons that can be used. but there are some problems, of course with the resume and they're using says, so we are stopped files which are usable, but to the premiums are getting increasing, were very sophisticated weapons they're getting and somebody sped and or how though they stay with don't have a air force that can challenge in any way russians in the air, but they do not waste the russian there for us of flight good capabilities, deep into your brain and control thera,

trace. so that's also very important. so both sides have weapons right now. ready for this game and can carry on, but the probable problems come up later on when there's going to be there's a crisis of our moments of munitions in the west. that's a lot about that. there's also some problems of that in russia. i believe that the present intensity of finding cannot be sustained investor. that way. i think there's going to be applause somewhere closer to the end of the year and negatively, which will maybe some kind of a tentative ceasefire edge. all right, well we have run out of time, so we're going to have to leave the conversation there. thanks so much to all of our guest publish. felt in an hour and to spin up into a, a patrick period who joined us earlier. and thank you to for watching, you can see the program again any time by visiting our website. i'd 0. com and for

further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash age and side story. you can also, during the conversation on twitter handle is add a j inside story for me and how much i'm german, the whole team here, bye for now. the the, wherever there are people. there are stories. stories that must be shared. it's my biggest responsibility to speak to my people coming from a place where i believe they have more to learn. they can do better. that need to

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