it is the conflict into time continued some correspondence or on the ground to record every angle. if the story had been on good between the hours and the 16th army available, be easier to say than a 100 shootings. refugees, why you have to be registered under people cannot access pay this, this food does not get to where it is needed, so it may not get there at all. the challenge ahead is nor stay without just the rest of the benefits was assign allies. now for joe banos, a visit to find the united states top diplomats, the saudi arabia, is a little more challenging than in the past. so was putting strains on american influence in the middle east. i intend, on sneed, lincoln mend. it's frightening times. this isn't the

hello mortgage program on the wrong call. a top level of diplomacy often involves tricky foot look, but it really comes much trickier than during and to the blinking visit to saudi arabia. in the few months since his last visit to the region, the political landscape has dramatically altered studies. restoration of ties with iran are broken by china, took washington by surprise. re at his ignored us request a boost to will production and that would help the price is low and us, but it is happy of to the rise is caused by the war and ukraine. lincoln will meet ministers from other gulf states to that's not the time of intensified aggression against the palestinians under the new far right governments and as well that he hopes to bring closer to saudi arabia. we'll be discussing a blinking strip. i'm what it hopes to achieve shortly with all i guess. but 1st this report from sort of higher is amazing and real and seemingly based on shed commitments and common interest spots. 3 l a. c is relations between the us inside

the re bill, all strains. the 1st meeting, only last an hour and 40 minutes, even though us secretary of state on to me blinking, had a lot of ground to cover with the saudi crown prince to her all as reopened its embassy in reality, 7 years after it was closed, the restoration of south your relations with iran was broken by china. the highlights in china is growing influence in the middle east side you rape is mohammed been sell. mine is making moves and then notes in the united states favor lincoln 3 day trip to the gulf kingdom aims to count to beijing, influence in the region. and that's of most go us present. joe biden is about to not walk away and leave a vacuum to be filled by china or russia, or iran. us hopes of a global boost, an oil supply have been sunk by saudi cots announced this week. washington is

desperate for the fuel. prices have risen during the war and ukraine and are a big issue with us both to thank you so much for blinking heights to get to this house, to establish diplomatic relations with these ro, despite sits fall right government, intensifying violence against palestinians, and running around from the program of the legal settlement expansion in the occupied west spine. united states has a real national security interest in promoting normalization between israel and saudi arabia. we believe that we can and indeed we must play an integral role in advancing it. no illusions, but this can be done quickly or easily, but as we remain committed to working towards that outcome, found us relations have been hit by the king's role in the m and rule and the torture and murder of john is jamal for so g to saturate view 40 is

a hedge with new alliances and moved away from non traditional strategic partners. can the us hold on to the power and influence that had traditionally use it in the middle east side of white us algebra inside story. from on this i'm joined by august say the are, these are the lives these other issue. sorry it says analyst and fellow ads. the psych terran isn't proxies and the secretary doesn't project to lancaster university in washington, dc is highly remind leveretts the strategy of political risk consulting from he's also a former white house national security official, informing us diplomats unintended wrong is filed as audi ahead on the american studies a department at the faculty of wells studies at the university of terror on i will welcome to you. oh, i'd like to begin in washington dc with the hillary man leverage. now suppose that

to be, believe that robot f kennedy is a potential present to jo biden's presidential run again. he tweeted around the time of the saudi around deal that china has now replaced the u. s. over the past decade, america has bombed and china has built. hillary, do you think that china is a threats to us diplomatic supremacy? certainly, it's rep to us dominance in the region. that's been clear now for many, many years. and certainly has accelerated under divided administration, and the administration is concerned about that. they're acting on that. remember they came into office as president binding himself declaring that he was going to treat saudi arabia as the cry of that they are. he was going to refuse to do was ground groups mohammad been so i'm on and only doing is up to to do with saudi arabia's gene. it's been a frankly humiliating reversal. and you have policy really recognizing that they need the saudis not necessarily only to achieve goals,

but to prevent the saudis from undermining the by the ministrations foreign policy agenda as well as its domestic politics going into the 2024 election here. abilities. oh gosh. and, and the, the, there is still a relationship between the us inside the rape. it has been full and a part completely yet, but it is very, very intense. perhaps more intense, but it's been pro yeah, well firstly, a good day to you to your viewers until alder guess. so i agree. there's a lot of tension. there still needs to be a lot of water under the bridge. but i think we need to conceptualize this tension . firstly, i very much echo what mr. to reset in washington dc. i, i think the, the fiery rhetoric that by didn't himself and divide into ministration at used in their, in their elections has really amplified these tensions. however,

not withstanding these 10 tensions, and notwithstanding this rhetorical kind of just laying, taking place, i still believe that there is still a strong relationship between the united states and saudi arabia. i think that i think the symbolism has decreased. but i still think the strategy has been there, and i don't see it going anywhere soon. i think in regards to china, and this were this, this aspect of, of, you know, is, is it's replacing somebody reader or i'm sorry, is it replacing the united states? i think for, for the saudi last, the saudi right now is viewing the world in a much more a multi folder fashion. i won't say it's a symmetric multi folder perception. i think it's an asymmetric multi folder perception. i think it's viewing. so would you rate, i'm sorry, it's time to review its view in the united states, not as a necessity as it used to be before, but i think as a strong desire and a strong preference. so i think this is,

this is now this transition of the change within the relationship that is causing inevitable tensions. and just one last point, cuz i don't want to take the entire time. but one last point is that a lot of people have come from the side and exaggerated, perhaps the tensions between. so if you read, you know that this has been the highest level of tension since 1973 error was really more. i would disagree with that. i think the, the tensions are in a 2nd. but unfortunately, within the united states relationship with saudi arabian saudis relationship with united states. it's embedded with disagreements and turbulence that has always had disagreements. but somehow there are strategic mechanisms that enabled them to overcome these challenges. followed is already in tears. right. may i ask one thing, may i just point out one thing, i'm sorry, i don't want to take the time for my colleague in any wrong, but just in terms of the state of us savvy relations and where they were,

i really need to point out. i worked at the white house, i was on the national security council in the bush administration after 911 and us started relations after 911. we're not as bad as they are today. i work then with president bush to organize a trip by then saudi king to president bush, his ranch in crawford, texas. the relations were not nearly as bad on a personal level and a country to country level. we are in a very serious state today, even compared to the prior time of the series prizes and us saudi relations after 911. well, let me bring in to her on a and found is. busy a, i mean, filed the v from chair on seems to be the us is simply a non trustworthy partner. the pads, china is much more simpler to deal with. this is that code and then they the breaking of the jcp away, which actually the wrong usually you deal with your role and actually stuck to the guns with and did everything they needed to do. so this comes as no surprise to tyrone children. uh no, it doesn't. uh, i think maybe with the need on val. com,

the normalization of relations between the, the inside of the review. i think the se, realize that fighting get on is not good for the country. what the united states wants from south database to demonize the land, to confronted on to this been the pittsville dollars against it on that's, that's good for savvy to be the one to. they want to solve this to normalize relations with the israel, which is not good for the saudis, and out of all the most them will they want to this, how this to reduce the price of oil. and why should you do that? that's, that's a reasonable or that's, you know, any sense for that's a higher price. you, you get 3 children who you want me to. you need to look at the market and not the demands from some politician in washington that's running for the presidency or whatever. and the they want to make sure that the size of these are confronting

china and russia, and that is also, and that's with, with so this is, so when you looked at the, the demands that mississippi lincoln has the fun side. did you realize that the, the patients inside the database running out and it's good 49 inspect for that each abilities other i should i want to bring you in here. it's always been said that this was a china broke a deal between saudi arabia and iran. but kennedy, that's not quite the truth. i mean, both sides had something to gain from this. what does saudi arabia gain from normalizing relations with iran? what was the driving force that? well firstly, i think i just like what my colleague and the around said, i think both surgery and your round realize that confrontation has not been fruitful. and there was just no clear in game to this confrontation and this relationship of antagonism. and i think they needed to move forward and turn to lee . i think they made this uh there was enough will to overcome these challenges,

but still they need to, they need to iron out some of the, the tricky issues that they have. but i think what's driving started to read the mostly and read it was driving surgery for foreign policy in general is the fact that aside, uribe a has enormous and very lofty economic projects that it wants to achieve. and i think it understands very well that it cannot achieve the economic goals as vision 2030, as we always hear about without a stable region. so i think what is taking place and what's worth knowing is that there's a, an aspect of regionalization that has been taking place. there's a, there's a regional agency that has taken place that this is what the saudi arabian normalization has illustrated. is that, that this is a region now that's attempting to take responsibility for solving its own issues. now we won't be easy, but at least they're going to discuss their problems and their cooperation with,

within a framework of dialogue. and more importantly, i think, what's going to make this referee between different than the other rough rough approach minutes is the economic factor due to this economic reading of the regionalization. so that's a core bedrock foundation or a pillar occurred $74.00 and policy now both regional and international hulu. man. leverage is actually some more extraordinary the you have the top diploma of the us coming to saudi arabia almost on the back foot. he is coming to try and make relations now. busy get any worse, not just trying improvement, but to not make them get any worse. but there is some history to this. i mean, the saudis have often had a better relationship with the republicans. then they have with the democrats. does that play into this? i think it does 1st, i want to echo my, my colleagues comments and started ready. i completely agree in terms of what the saudis are looking for in terms of stability in the region and how important that

is to their economic future. and unfortunately, how, how much that collides with, with how american administrations perceive their role in the middle east and what they want from the middle east. and here the difference between republicans and democrats is very important. historically, the saudi royal family is had an excellent relations with the republican party. i worked in the 1st bush, 541 white house back in 19901991. and the saudi ambassador was in the oval office every single day. that relationship was incredibly close. and again, even after $911.00, the relationship between the saudi royal family and the bush administration. this is the 2nd bush administration, was also very close. fast forward to just a couple of years ago decided relationship with the trump administration was also very close. notwithstanding the fact that president trump refused to come to saudi radius defense when they're, when they're oil facilities were attacked by in 20 and 2019. so the relationship

there is, is very close and we see the savvy involvement in the us gall sport just this week, dramatically increasing its role that also has ties to the republican party in the united states. and that is what i would think, i think is the driving force for separate change. the lincoln coming decided rate. ready is to try to get the saudis to do no harm to the bottom, industries, foreign policy agenda, but much more importantly to try to get them to not be as uh, as involved in us politics because abiding ministration is concerned that particularly in swing states like florida savvy money, sorry, involvement could actually push things not tremendously, but just enough to give either candidate trunk or candidate santas to florida governor an edge in the 2024 election. a flood. is there an opportunity for us to

around here? there is a, you know, like hillary said, no abilities said, you know, there is a re tooling awareness of now the relationship between the saudi arabia and the, the us is active. tyrone an opportunity that perhaps try and get back to the jcp away the raw nuclear deal or any other way for a deal between iran and the us. as you know you on has been trying to have the united states come back. you don't never left the agreement to, i'm using the agreement. it's the us that needs to come back to the agreement to buy them. administration could return to the agreement on the 1st day of the by then presidency. you know, trump left the agreement to issuing an executive all of this and the next president in the american system can notify the famous presidents, the executive orders. and the biden did that when it came to the tightest crime,

into chords and other agreements. that's the top left, but the by the administration decided not to do the same for the new for that agreement. they could just split 10 to the agreement and give it on 2 or 3 months to come back to the full compliance that you're on was engaging in before the top left. and they decided not to do that. it's been more than 2 years since the, the, the, the bite of that message and came into office. and they come up with a different, excuse us, every day. you know, they built the last thing they're saying is that because of the demonstrations they need on day, they don't want to go back to the agreements. they say it's not on the agenda. this is what john categories, the spokesman at the national security council said last week, but it's been more than 6 months since we haven't had any demonstrations the so that with the bank to have the agreement or not, it's

a decision that needs to be made in washington, i think there's a c administration in this on has been trying to the re 10 make sure that the, the facilities and the conditions are right for the us through the 10. it's a decision that they have to make hillary was this a strategic one? the only be off of the, by the administration, that it didn't go back to the jcp away. the opportunity was right, that it could have been a very simple decision. they didn't do it. and that's something that now perhaps the, our well does look to have the goals, states and particularly looks have been going to maybe america isn't as powerful as we thought it was. maybe we do need other allies. was this a strategic bundle? absolutely. i think it was the most important strategic vendor that the by the administration has committed and it's on their foreign policy agenda from the beginning. because not enough, not only is united states now looked at in the region as not,

not willing to militarily come to defend any of our allies, but we can't even keep an agreement and agreement that was working. that wasn't everybody's interests. it wasn't a very serious blow for the by the ministration, not to return. like they did to the parents, to the parents. environmental, of course, to, to, to that degree meant very much a strategic lender and i don't think they can. uh, i'm not sure they can recover and i think the saudis are betting on that the, it will take every thing. there's a bite of ministration has to restore credibility in the middle east while fighting with russia over ukraine, while fighting with china over time on. it's just not something this administrator you can do as it sends into the presidential campaign with republicans here putting all of that, putting themselves into the race for president. it's just too much for this administration. and i think the saudis of correctly assess that disease,

do you think it was a strategic blunder? i'm not going to go into american politics here. i'm going to stick to my re on politics it with, with, with the, with the theme of meddling, etc. so i'm not going to meddle in my, my, my uranium colleagues and an american colleagues to range. but what i would say is that i think the, when it comes to the saudi perception of the j. c, p u a, there was a lot of things that they had issues with. and i think with the some of the, with the, i'm sorry, with a jc the way it was mostly viewed as an obama legacy was a fact of trying to reproach around with something that i think came at the cost of the relations with the americans. main partners inside of your regular and others. but i think it's precisely this issue of going back into the j cpa leaving the jcp way is precisely the reason one of the core reasons why there was a saudi arabian reproach meant. and there was a preference to have the umbrella of china because i think the region has had

enough of weighting what's going to happen and being susceptible to the politics and in other western capitals. so i think this is the reason why this is why there was a regional agency, the fact that listen, we're not gonna allow ourselves to be a platform or an experiment for others and to express their own or project their own politics upon us. this is a theme that was very much agreed upon and entirely or unanimously in the last error summit in, in, in saudi arabia. they all agreed upon that they are not going to be a region where they were, others, superpowers can compete, they have their own agency and their own will. now i think with, when it comes to the, you know, other issues of dealing with this, i know, i'm sorry with, with the, with the reluctant c a. and the aspect of credibility as my colleague and in the united states said,

i don't think that just it began with the the trumpet administration or the biden administration. i think that aspect of american credibility, unfortunately, has been in the meeting for a few decades now. i think of the war in iraq really didn't help in 2003. the other aspects that have led to miss the perceptions? no, i think one of the reasons why there is a constant mist perception or a constant of disappointment and expectations is because of the language that we use is very much misleading. one of the aspect, one of the terms that we use is, is alliances. no, saudi arabia, in the us are not military allies. and there are partners. it's real in the united states or not military allies. and therefore, this notion of alliances is being taken back and forth and used to likely, in my opinion. and i think that's one of the reasons why there's

a lot of mis expectations. it's an interesting point you make about as well because $3500000000.00 in military aid, a learning from the us to suggest that they owe much more than just uh, partners. as you say, there isn't a lot. there is no lions, but every man i actually want to ask you about is ro. um we have america legal terms. i'll give you the, the, the okay, there you go. that'll give you the legal terms. henry, i, what else you, when it comes to is, well, the americans have bitten off a lot more than they can shoot the abraham, the codes with, which is ro sees as one of its biggest successes. they haven't managed to get saudi arabia. saudi arabia is being pressured by the americans to join those, the quotes they simply know, doing it when it comes to syria, the americans had problems when it comes to the region, the americans and simply to involve in so many different things. but it wasn't a clear strategy that hasn't helped us. so it hasn't. but i think the role of

israel is very, very important. you have not only a saudi, the saudi government that's closer historically. and i think to today with the republicans. but you also have in israel with prime minister netanyahu hughes incredibly close with republicans, his chief adviser under him, or was and was a registered republican activist party activists here in the united states before he moved to israel the nation. yahoo government and principal haven't been so much, have deep ties personally to, to active candidates in the us campaign. the percept, the idea that the saudis are going to make peace with israel under the bite and administration is, i think, is almost farcical. and i think the bottom ministration sees again, not that they're going to get this amazing victory with the saudis to make peace of israel. but they're trying to prevent the saudis from working with israel to

undermine the biting administration. in particular, not even the united states, but the fight in administration. i think at this point for the white house here, it's really all about politics and personal politics for president biden. fod. uh, is that a jew saying that the american simply have a scale going to approach when it comes to the middle east deployment say, and this is now coming back to hold them that there was simply too many competing agendas. a mess of the sites is a kind to me and decline and the fact that this side of these and you don't the ends of signing agreements in beijing is a sign of that is an indication for that. and this decline will continue. i think what the united states doing good to go to russia is going to head the us in the long run. i think the confrontation of this, the china is going to have sent me the long run. the, i think the united states used to be a sofa power. they need to understand how can the engage and soft landing to

becoming more normal country. and unfortunately, this is not what the scene washington, what you see in washington is the consortium the see the i am may follow it, i'm gonna have to stop you that you've made a very interesting point. i've got about minutes as he left on the show and i want to put that point to other guess just very quick and read abdul aziz very quickly is the us us in decline. i think it's perceived as so. i mean, i, i don't think the us is perceived to be in decline. i think there are just other options, and i think that's what saudi arabia is viewing the world, has, in my opinion, saudi arabia views the world in, in a symmetric multi folder world. in other words, that the united states is still the phrase, i did say quickly, and i do when it comes that henry, my liver is when we all are running out of time, i do apologize. i do apologize. and the us in decline, i think without a doubt and like my colleagues said in saudi arabia,

it's been decades in the making the wrong or was the big a big push for the united states off the question in the middle east. and we are seeing unfortunately, the ramifications of that to this day. i wanna thank oh i guess i do as these. oh gosh. and i want to thank hillary man leveretts and i want to thing filed is audi as well. and i want to thank you to fortunately you can see the program again any time by visiting our website out, is there a dot com and for further discussion, go to a facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash sa, inside story. and you can also join the conversation on twitter. handle is asia insightsquared for me in wrong con. and the whole team has bye for now the the,

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