to need to be hired and the story needs to be towed. there is no prep, a soccer pitch here. so i training the street with exclusive interviews and in depth reports christopher columbus wrote about it. in 1492 algebra has teens on the ground. this is where a pilot gets the way to bring you more award winning document trees and live news. according to described as the cornerstone of european security is unraveling, russia is finally withdrawing from the treaty on conventional armed forces in europe. in november, nato has condemned the move. but did the treaty ever work? and what does this mean for global forms control? this is inside story, the hello and welcome to the program. i'm how much room treaties are hard fought and

often take years to negotiate. they are designed to keep peace preventing rival countries from going to war. one agreement signed and 1990 towards the end of the cold war is the treaty on conventional armed forces in europe. the united states, other nato members, the former soviet union and its eastern european allies agreed to prevent military build up at their borders. but in recent years, nato's expansion towards east and rush of security interest have left that accord all but meaningless. now moscow says it will withdraw from the treaty in november. we'll explore the implications with our guest in a moment. but 1st this report from mounted here was defense editor alex could populus signed in 1990 towards the end of the cold war. the treaty unconventional forces in europe will see a fee was designed as a confidence building measure between nato and what was then. the wholesale packed to the main aim was to limit the amount of conventional weapons in europe from the atlantic ocean to the euro, mountains, nato, and the wholesale packed where each limited 220000 tanks,

20000 pieces of heavy artillery, 6800 combat aircraft and 2000 attack helicopters, the numbers seemed staggering today, but at the time it was felt with verification that the ceiling on conventional arms in europe would prevent one side launching a sudden to tackle the other. the agreement was part of a series of treaties designed to lower the tensions between the 2 blocks and then moved towards peace and relative stability with the break up of the soviet union. and the dissolution of the also packed the regular version of these cold war treaties, along with nato's rapid expansion, east left russia increasingly worried. nature was still being used to contain it, even before the war and ukraine. opponents military was being boasted with the united states and all the nathan members beefing up their presents both in poland and the baltic states. friday's announcement by russia that it would no longer comply with the treaty as yet another sewing. the dramatic escalation intentions between nato and russia,

alex could helpless for inside story. the. all right, let's go ahead and bring in our guests in ford liberty, north carolina is peter l. solve associate professor of international security studies at the national defense university in washington, dc. in moscow is pablo. so again, our defense in russian foreign policy analyst and then geneva is samuel romani, associate fellow at the royal united service institute, and author of pollutants were on ukraine. a warm welcome to you all, and thanks so much for joining us today on inside story. peter, let me start with you today. the conventional armed forces in europe, treaty, which is in a court that's often referred to as the cornerstone of european security. it's unraveling. so what does this mean for global arms control? slow to disaster, but it was a completely exact accessible. i would like to say clarify, i don't speak on behalf of the us government. i work for the government, but obviously just express my own meals and i think it's

a disaster of some of the political analysts now use this theory that to be coming back to some kind of new medieval isn't. uh they are basically no treaties left and right. i'm going to all use so pro do using all arms the. ready or let's say most of the german company, they're making tax for ukraine now. and the budget is increased by hundreds of billions, i believe $500000000000.00 for the defense department, for the minister of defense of in germany. russia has really lies that this war has still under the conventional war, like everyone was speaking about the importance of the regular well hybrid warfare . now we have a conventional war in the you're not seeing the one, the scale not seeing since world war 2. so we coming back in some sense to for the world more. 03 world war one situation. when there are no rules, no regulation,

no just award for you or your rules of the battle hold has been compared to the bottom of the world war one. this is pretty much an attrition war. each of both sides need a lot of conventional arms. this is a very frightening cities, i would say for the whole world. probably. so moscow says now that it will withdraw from the c f e treaty in november. is there anything that could be done that would convince russia to return to the treaty? this is basically best for a long time rest. you're already withdrew from the street being december. 07 after half a year waiting period. so now the just formally scrapping is but it's not being are complying for a very long time. the, these treaties,

the cold war open size. uh so yeah. see others. they reflect that the political reality. you are a, when the cold war was over and everyone was, wanted to bizarre, build confidence. and these changes were the offer this bizarre to build trust. now there's no trust with, uh, there is a moment instead of design moment. so with 3 days to not be so solid because political reality be, reflect that no more no longer exists. this is a different world. another world fly, a different treaties may be in the field sure to call to find and they more see this more unsafe world of conflict inside you are samuel and you heard problem there, say that the cfc has essentially been dead for a long time. the president put in suspended rushes,

participation in the c f. e treaty in 2007 in 2015. russia announced it was halting participation in the treaty. and now we know that russia is going to withdraw in november. has the treaty been effective since 2007 or even 2015 hasn't been dead all this time, or was there some cooperation going on at some level up until now? a well basically, i mean the treaty that that ip csc is actually been deb dykes and science 99. when there was a debate about the adap and see if the treaty and the russians ukrainians, the bell russians were kind of catholic stats joined that. but the russians obviously wanted the whole of nita or brussel or the needle countries to be able to consider regulate their arms control at the enter their arms are still in the same way. so it's been dying since 1999 is definitely celebrated after 2007. and then there was an indefinite total withdrawal in march of 20 today. so i don't think it's been really effective. i think that is part of the broader problem with the

arms and drawbridge, and that we've seen effect new chart inspections as well as the death of the i n f treaty. but these treaties, remaining even, even partially, are normally in effect, created at least not much fear for dialogue on arms, regulation and also on nuclear proliferation more broadly. so it may have had in directors, in general, benefits for dialogue and cooperation. i don't think it's really been effective mechanism for a very long time. peter, earlier you were talking about the dissolution of this treaty and very start term talking about very, very dire consequences. the going forward. i want to ask you from your vantage point, did the c f e treaty ever really work and, and why should people have cared or not care that it was or wasn't working as well? so i agree with the previous speaker, and so i had some symbolic significance, but people who are talking to each other, i'm sure all sides were not exactly following this the, the treaties in violating them very often and particularly in the recent to years.

but of the like with the nuclear us start are truly the mutual is also abandoned in february by russia. there was some framework for discussion. there is no framework for discussion and conversation of poll. now basically the hands are completely open for this up for the pro ration of nuclear proliferation and a regular conventional arms. uh so even though it may have not next in the past really well, there was some kind of a system in place. now, there was nothing left for the much problem. obviously we can have this conversation without talking about the war in ukraine, from your vantage point, how much did the war and ukraine factor into russia's decision to fully withdraw from the treaty? a russian policy possibly not changing it, no cetera, actually dramatically. there was this famous for the rest,

the remaining security conference, russia turned from crime to operate nation to the west, to confrontation. but it's not direct would have been rather slowly and solidly and big treaties that were built on proper ration, big game increasingly irrelevant as see if he was it as a right. and rather i said if treaty, when that were assigned tens of thousands of tax and other heavy. so if you were moved out of your, of, into the fire, you stand in central wage and then decided area. and also, even when the cold war ended and the boat as of a csc were no longer much relevant. it's very intrusive. all side inspection regime was the main feature, especially for smaller european nations. they've been to have the capabilities of

the united states. the governor are in doubt so slow, and this lady was the main reason why russia is actually moved out of the treaty to prevent a view on science inspection. and there's of course, the brown all still there, but that's not as and choose the spanish set. so this is, as we thought for the district that was being brooding, 1st, georgia, then for the brand new new brain tree is an on site inspections. the getting something that direction you know what they want to see. because all sides are asked to see actual back to readiness of units and tried to take to that up through satellite ways. and the other shape is also disappeared when they open skies because russia once a year after that. but america didn't, and the street is also bad. i mean, there is no political action. but here's the point where they go on for the treaty

of drinking and that you know, to not spend any more. the problem was mentioning some other treaties that have disintegrated over the years. i want to step back for a moment and take a look at some of the other agreements that were meant to strengthen europe security but are no longer effective. the open sky sweetie permits and reconnaissance flights over members dates of the territory to collect data on military forces and activities. it was signed in 1992 and came into force 10 years later. but the u. s. withdrew in 2020 accusing russia of repeated violations. russia pulled out the following year. then there's the 2011 vienna document and international agreement on military transparency in 2022. russia refused to share data with the other. 56 members. now samuel, let me go to you this gradual undoing of a group of interlocked agreements and arms control treaties. um, does that mean that the existing security architecture in europe is no longer strong enough to ensure peace on the consummate? well, i think it definitely is true that i see that that's the case. i mean,

the existing urban security architecture has been dismantled, one by one. mostly the hands of russian unilateralism or russian instruction. as of the russians, of course, would often claim that the west was trying to tie arms control the other political issues. for example, one of the reasons why they claim that nato did not ratify the death and see of the treaty. because russia was maintaining peacekeeping contingent transistor. yeah. and also forces in george as well as committing atrocities. contest. yeah. that were unrelated terms withdrawal. so the russians will accuse the last to basically, yeah. find that arms controls and many other geopolitical conflicts and making the arms and trowbridge you, more diluted by russian instruction isn't, has definitely played a part in the class at the european security order. recently with the americans tried to reach out to the russians, tap talks and kyra the russians was told that nothing happened. it's really, really a bad situation. peter, let's talk about the knock on effect of all this. i mean, when the rest of the world sees that these treaties are unraveling,

what does it mean for global security going forward as well as i already says, it's a pretty disaster situation. there are basically many centers in the world now. pennsylvania used to have this formal 4 plus one that was china or iran, or russia north korea plus non state actors. now it's really the geo political situation. there are new arriving centers of power, like dorothy india focused on brazil. so basically the world is characterized by this tremendous dis, balance of power. this is the most critical situation, i would argue, since it wouldn't be sort of a crisis. and so ways of going to the center. so flower can act on their own militarily, politically and of course in terms of production of. busy r, as in local conflicts, we can see the turkey in russia now turkey in theory and see emphasized in theory

is a natal member, but it's pretty much dealing up. oh, you know, very friendly manner with the russia dividing the territories and speed are some influence. for example, in syria. so m o, many role g actors now will be able to produce arms, so do on their own work. the bottom, the girl is all author reading in molly and the central african republic. so basically there's no roles anymore left in those security agreements. then there is a global solve which is quite sympathetic of or at least neutral towards rush on the board. if you need a grain there are, there are some amazing that the country, like south africa, might be helping ability early to russia in the conflict. so i know this is a very, very good and situation. i would say the problem we spoke a moment ago about the open skies treaty. that was one example that we gave when

going through the history of some of these treaties that have been, have come apart. um, when the us withdrew from the open skies treaty, how was that perceive, how much did that decision ratchet up the level of mistrust that we're not witnessing between the us and russia? well, it is not only between the us and russia between the us and your because you are a very much to do without the open sky. they invested hundreds of millions of hours in good keeping your belie. germany was building a new plane service defined for open skies. the suite you had in your brain. russia invested hundreds of millions of those dollars to build to, to put in the plane. certainly fine for the treaty. and you guys think sir said, no, that's it. then we're going out because the congress didn't want to invest hundreds of millions of dollars of building new planes. and the some plans were buying 70, sevens built in the beginning of the 60s. and they have been since scratch after

the us square the change in building new ones. the info at the mirror and the b because open size use the good find that provided not very accurate and the images. so, but that wasn't working for you were being part of the country is that for russia, we do have the americans every time capability that's in most likely the best in the world. so i'm back 11, trust street. when i'm sure about the interest to see the treaty, those self interest of different countries rules right now. uh the others will have to just simply do do what they can when the other parties decide not to follow the rules because the rules not right now. ready to reconcile with the political reality in europe and the world, samuel, it,

it looked to me like you were reacting to some of what people was saying there. did you want to jump in? yeah, well i basically, i wasn't really particularly reacting to that, but obviously i think one of the other point i want to bring it up is that this is not just an issue regarding nato and russia regulating arms control. the united states has been trying to basically move china into the global arms control regime . and china said pass the resist to that. one of the efforts that make bon peo, john bolts, and many of the senior officials and trumpet ministration. want to do was actually ever we go, should have new start. would you regulate the chinese nuclear arsenal in the same way as the russians, the americans and the russians have usually sided with vision on that. i'm pointing the finger at british, french and nato, that nuclear arsenals as well. and finally, there's also a clash between russia and many of the european security institutions that it still remains. the member of russia is out of the council of europe and is still part of the o. s. c. but rushes in crashing with us. he repeatedly and undermining his credibility, accusing some of their operatives at f. b nash, in the occupied territories of the national hands caressing them to the point that

was, you have to withdraw. so this is a broader symptom in a broader problem that stands well beyond just aren't controlled. other factors, like i just mentioned, a peter, i saw you nodding along to some of what samuel was saying that did you want to jump in? yes, i am going to do much with the sentiment that there was so much distrust right now that i don't see basically like any opportunity for any new treaties. that hooks up i was saying about the start of the new start that's was very true. that was the sentiments on the side to the trump administration, that china kind of was left outside of that and that needed to be, do we need to go see that? no, we haven't been doing pockets done in the country, so we ship nuclear weapons so. so, so basically the hands are really open for all the players to do pretty much whatever they want. but the political distrust has never happened since even the

cold war, because even on the cold war, there was 1st of all that were pretty much 2 centers of flower moscow in washington . and then after the cuban missile crisis, there was a kind of a mutual respect and understanding where the red lines for now there are no red lines in terms of conventional arms. this is a really oh oh, a conventional war on the scale of world war one of world war 2 going on in europe right now. so, i mean, i can, again, i'm sorry i sound so is a mistake. but this is a very good situation. if you want to heal, actually trumps a senior advisor on the res. uh, and the really, uh, i would say say in person just to isn't these of the, to be, are in the beginning of world war 3. and i mean, this is not an optimistic situation with the, with the bending of basically all the treaties right now at pablo. peter was

talking about the cold war. i, i want to go back a ways and, and ask you about something, you know, from the american point of view negotiations over the c, f. e treaty were seen as successful. but i want to ask you about what it was like from the soviet perspective. was there a sense that gorbachev had given away too much ground to nato from the get go as well? yes, i mean, most likely, for myself, even the know the particular how much weapons right? the russian military. so you would treat your cash dash for the big war in europe. and so when the treat us side, it turned out that we had to say and very quickly move norma some out on. so hard there a way behind the you are urls instead of troy, a jack into the fire beast and dump, but they are in the middle of a search or tie you are inside the area. so yes, there was

a new russian military or take them by bit by surprise the soviet latrete via the terms that turns out when they've been given, even though most, i think the brown one, how many bias they had and they had about a $100000.00 but you are to know, and most of them were in the european are russia and the eastern europe. so that's little so of course, always a problem because communications between the kremlin then the military, the russian lower trans. oh, well, a bit of a problem. the of the grandmother always knows what the beer on no actually have, and they're capable for and makes the political mistakes right. with boeing into your brain. and when the miller should have turned out to be not very good for the job, but the one you play about your own words and there's going to be some kind of feature stablish. a new treat. this will have to appear to cheap for the situation under

wraps award. no one needs in your advance way now, but wouldn't be, was ready for it. and so that means i believe that you are architecture of security and conventional weapons and your will appear after the premium conference is really so samuel, i want to dig in a little bit more into the, the history in the development of, of the c, f, e. treaty over the years, there was an updated c f e treaty that was drafted and approved in his don rule in 1999 that took into account the new reality such as the warsaw pact, the solution as well as nato expansion, because nato countries didn't ratify that agreement president put in suspended russia's participation in the c f. e treaty in 2007. then you have a 2015 putting essentially suspending their participation in it. if nato countries hadn't ratified the agreement, why would nato expect russia to adhere to its obligations?

well, that's basically what the russian argument is, is that the nato hundreds are tying at the regulation of the arm central regime to other aspects of russian conduct. there were also a couple of other follow ups that happened afterward to they would see if you won a which limited the american forces, 250000 troops that work and that help obviously there was a parallel and a close timing, obviously, between 2007 with this withdrawal and the unit speech which provided me a quote and then deals, and then do you wash your messaging and then the 2008 presidential elections, which sought to be replaced. i give it to my dad. yeah. so i think that russian domestic politics probably played a role in shaping some but scripts of the western handling of see if he at that time. but the russians did point to double sanders with regards to uh, 1999. and also there's a potential issue, but the violations of the c a v by some smaller states in particular as the bridge john had been noted that really hasn't been done much has been done to stop them on the right side of i said probably treaties like the ones we're discussing it,

how hard are they to put together, or how hard far are they? and how much effort does it take? what are the dimensions on the goal? she ation them from the national forces in europe the form, the csc began in a long time before the last and all the these, there was talks and fox and the box nowhere to all during the cold war. but then the next year changed with gorbachev, ending the code words together with me. and uh, the technicality is that where is she doing these everything you've a successful folks on conventional forces? oh, wow. this see, she could be very swift, we put together. so when the boy did so, i must hear changes and there's a bill of these. and if there are a negotiation going on and even on

a level that allows for swift movement forward when the political atmosphere is good for that. and probably we only have one minute left. let me just ask you very quickly. do you expect given the geopolitical moment that we are in right now? so many crises planning out concurrently. do you expect that we're going to just be seeing more treaties unravel going forward? well, there's not many list already. so yes, i mean, right now we're in the confrontational mode. but again, this more and i'm from ation though, but it'd be size your in rush will have to find that some kind of pretty pro cool. some kind of modus vivendi moving forward, batch and then all right, well we have run out of time. so we're gonna have to leave our conversation there. thanks so much for all of our guess peter eltoff problem. so i'll get an hour and samuel romani us and thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website, delta 0 dot com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page and that's facebook dot com,

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should give edition orders for the home, some of which are funded by the european union from around the world. it's so we'll see here. it has to be in my, in the tyra as people tried to find still way out the the hello am serial then. yeah, it's great to have you with this. this is the news. our life from the coming up in the program today advancing against russian troops, ukraine's president says, account for offensive is underway in the east yet another ceasefire and sedan. the people hope will hold and help them get desperately need a.