the 1st episode of this series exposed the imperial origins of the drug trade. commerce was good, fire, fire was good for the former. so these things very much wants to go and tokens. passage from the far east to europe and the united states. the guns need money, only money in these mountains is open. drug trafficking, politics and power. the era of empires on the accord, described as the cornerstone of european security is on the raffling russia. as finally withdrawing from the treaty on conventional armed forces in europe. in november, nato has condemned the move, which is the treaty ever work. and what does this mean for global arms control? this is inside story, the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm how much room treaties are hard fought and often take years to negotiate. they are designed to keep peace, preventing rival countries from going to war. one agreement signed in 1990 towards the end of the cold war is the treaty on conventional armed forces in europe. the united states, other nato members, the former soviet union and its eastern european allies agreed to prevent military build up at their borders. but in recent years, nato's expansion towards the east and russia security interest have left that accord all but meaningless. now, moscow says it will withdraw from the treaty in november. we'll explore the implications with our guests in a moment. but 1st, this report pronounced here is defense editor alex could populus signed in 1992 was the end of the cold war. the treaty unconventional forces in europe will see a fee with design does a confidence building measure between nato. and what was the end of all sole pact? to the main aim was to limit the amount of conventional weapons in europe,

from the atlantic ocean to the ural mountains. nathan, the warsaw pact where each limited 220000 tanks, $20000.00 pieces of heavy artillery, $6800.00 combat aircraft, and 2000 to attack helicopters. the numbers seemed staggering today, but at the time it was filled with verification that the ceiling on conventional arms in europe will prevent one side launching a sudden the tackle. the of the agreement was part of a series of treaties designed to lower tensions between the 2 blocks and then moved towards peace and relative stability. but with the breakup of the soviet union and the dissolution of the also packed the regular version of these cold war treaties, along with nato's rapid expansion, east left russia increasing. the worried nature was still being used to contain it even before the war and ukraine. opponents military was being boasted with the united states and other data members be single their presence, both in poland and the baltic states. friday's announcement by russia that it would

no longer comply with the treaty does get another sewing. the dramatic escalation intentions between nato and russia. alex could topless the inside story. the. all right, let's go ahead and bring in our guests in ford liberty, north carolina is peter l. solve associate professor of international security studies at the national defense university in washington, dc. in moscow is problem solving. our defense in russian foreign policy analyst and in geneva is samuel romani, associate fellow at the royal united service institute, and author of pollutants were on ukraine. a warm welcome to you all, and thanks so much for joining us today on inside story. peter, let me start with you today. the conventional armed forces near a treaty, which is in a court that's often referred to as the cornerstone of european security. it's unraveling. so what does this mean for global arms control? slow to disaster, but it was

a completely exact if that's all i would like to say clarify, i don't speak on behalf of the us government. i work for the government, but obviously just express my own wheels and i think it's a disaster of some of the political analysts now use this theory that we coming back to some kind of new medieval isn't. uh they are basically no trinity is left and right and tall is so proud using all arms to bill or that so say most of the journeyman company, they're making tax for ukraine now. and the budget is increased by hundreds of billions, ideally $500000000000.00 for the defense department, for the minister of defense of in germany. russia has really lies that this war has still under the conventional war like everyone. ready speaking about the importance of the regular well hybrid warfare. now we have a conventional war in the you're not seeing one,

the scale not seeing since world war 2. so be coming back in some sense to for the world more. 03 world war one situation. when there are no rules, no regulation, no just award to you or your rules of the battle by who has been compared to the battle of the world war one. this is pretty much an attrition war. and each of both sides need a lot of conventional arms. this is a very frightening cities, i would say for the whole world. probably. so moscow says now that it will withdraw from the c f e treaty in november. is there anything that could be done that would convince russia to return to the treaty? the c g is basically best for a long time rest. you're already withdrew from the street being december. oh, $7.00 after a half a year waiting period. so now the just formally scrapping is but it's not being

are complying for a very long time. the, these treaties, the cold war open size. uh so yeah. see others. they reflect that the political reality you're up when the cold war was over. and everyone was wanted to bizarre, build confidence and these changes were in the office bins who bizarre to build trust. now there's no trust with uh, there is a moment instead of design moment. so retreat is not the sort of solid because political reality be reflect that no more no longer exists. this is a different world. another world fly, a different treaties may be in the field sure to call to find and they more see this more unsafe world of conflict inside you are samuel,

you heard problem there, say that the cfc has essentially been dead for a long time president put in suspended rushes, participation in the c f. e treaty in 2007, and 2015. russia announced it was halting participation in the treaty. and now we know that russia is going to withdraw in november. has the treaty been effective since 2007 or even 2015 hasn't been dead all this time, or was there some cooperation going on at some level up until now as well? basically, i mean the treaty that that ip cfc is actually been dying since 1999 when there was a debate about the adap and see if the treaty and the russians ukrainians, the bell russians were kinda catholics. dan joined that, but the russians obviously wanted the whole of nita or brussel, or the nato countries to be able to consider regulate their arms control at the enter their arms are still in the same way. so it's been dying since 1999 is

different. celebrated after 2007, and then there was an indefinite total withdrawal in march of 20 today. so i don't think it's been really effective. i think that is part of the broader problem with the arms and drawbridge, and that we've seen effect new chart inspections as well as the death of the i n f treaty. but these treaties remaining and even partially are normally in effect, created at least snap must be here for dialogue on arms regulation and also on nuclear proliferation more broadly. so it may have had in director to general benefits for dialogue and cooperation. i don't think it's really been effective mechanism for a very long time. peter, earlier you were talking about the dissolution of this treaty and very start term talking about very, very dire consequences. the going forward. i want to ask you from your vantage point, did the c f e treaty ever really work and, and why should people have cared or not cared that it was or wasn't working as well? so i agree with the previous speaker, in fact, that it had some symbolic significance. but people who are talking to each other,

i'm sure all sides were not exactly following this uh the, the treaties in violating them very often and particularly in the recent years. but oh, but like with the nuclear us start are truly the which was also abandoned in february by russia. there was some framework for discussion. there is no framework for discussion and conversation a toll no. basically the hands are completely open for this up for the pro ration of nuclear proliferation and a regular conventional arms. so even though it may have not next in the past really well, there was some kind of a system in place. now, there was nothing left for the much problem. obviously we can have this conversation without talking about the war in ukraine, from your vantage point, how much did the war and ukraine factor into russia's decision to fully withdraw

from the treaty? a russian policy possibly not changing it, no cetera, actually dramatically. there was this famous for the rest, the remaining security conference, russia turned from crime to operate nation to the west, to confrontation. but it's not direct with this rather slowly and solidly big treaties that were built on proper ration, big game increasingly irrelevant as see if he was as a right and rather effective treaty when that were assigned tens of thousands of tax and other heavy. so we were moved out of europe and to the far east end in central asia and then decided peoria. and also, even when the cold war ended and the voters of ac ac were no longer much relevant. it's a very intrusive,

offsite inspection regime was the main feature, especially for smaller european nations, have been to have the capabilities of the united states. there are in doubt so slow. and this lady was the main reason why russia is actually moved out of the treaty to prevent a view on science inspection. and there's of course, the brown all still there, but that's not as intrusive furnished. so this is, as we thought for the district that was being brooding, 1st, georgia, then for the brand new brand, new brain tree is an on site inspections. the game, something that direction, you know, what they want to see, because all sides around to see actual back to readiness of units and tried to take to that up to those that or ways. and the other shape is also disappeared when they opened size, because russia once a year after that,

but america didn't. and the st. these also bad. i mean, there is no political action. but here's the point where they go on for a treaty of drinking. and that, you know, to not spend any more, the problem was mentioning some other treaties that have disintegrated over the years. i want to step back for a moment and take a look at some of the other agreements that were meant to strengthen europe security. but are no longer effective. the open sky sweetie permits on reconnaissance flights over members dates of the territory to collect data on military forces and activities. it was signed in 1992 and came into force 10 years later. but the west withdrew in 2020 accusing russia of repeated violations. russia pulled out the following year. then there's the 2011 vienna document and international agreement on military transparency in 2022. russia refused to share data with the other 56 members. now samuel, let me go to you this gradual undoing of a group of interlocked agreements and arms control treaties. um,

does that mean that the existing security architecture in europe is no longer strong enough to ensure peace on the continent? well, i think it definitely is true that i see that that's the case. i mean, the existing urban security architecture has been dismantled, one by one. mostly the hands of russian unilateralism or russian instruction. as of the russians, of course, would often claim that the west was trying to tie arms control the other political issues. for example, one of the reasons why they claim, but nato did not ratify the data g a d g day. because russia was maintaining a peacekeeping contingent transistor. yeah. and also forces in george as well as committing atrocities in cash. yeah. that were unrelated terms withdrawal. so the russians will accuse the last to basically, yeah. find that honest controls and many other geopolitical conflicts and making the arms and trowbridge you, more diluted by russian instruction isn't, has definitely played a part in the class at the european security order. recently with the americans tried to reach out to the russians, to have talks in cairo, the russians was told that nothing happened. it's really, really

a bad situation. peter, let's talk about the knock on effect of all this. i mean, when the rest of the world sees that these treaties are unraveling, what does it mean for global security going forward as well as i already says, it's a pretty disaster situation. there are basically many centers in the world now they've pencil going to used to have this formula of 4 plus one that was china, iran or russia, north korea plus non state actors. now it's really the geo political situation. there are new arriving centers of power, like dorothy india pockets stop brazil. so basically the world is characterized by this tremendous dis balance of power. this is the most critical situation. i would argue, since the 2 wouldn't be sort of a crisis. and so basically the center, so flour can act on their own militarily,

politically and of course in terms of production of. busy r, as in local conflicts, we can see the turkey in russia. now turkey in theory, i'd say, emphasized in theory is a natal member, but it's pretty much dealing up. oh, in a very friendly manner, with the russia dividing the territories and speed are some influence. for example, in syria. so m o, many role g actors now will be able to produce arms, so do on their own work. the bottom, the girl is operating in molly and the central african republic. so basically there's no roles anymore left in those security agreements. then there was a global solve, which is quite sympathetic of or at least neutral towards rush on the board. if you need a grain, there are, there are some from ation that the country like so that frequently be helping billy to early to russia in the conflict. so the, this is a very,

very good and situation. i would say the problem we spoke a moment ago about the open skies treaty. that was one example that we gave when going through the history of some of these treaties that have come apart. um, when the us withdrew from the open skies treaty. how was that perceived? how much did that decision ratchet up the level of mistrust that we're not witnessing between the us and russia? well, it is not only between the us and russia between the us and your because you're a very much wanted to have that open skies. they invested hundreds of millions of hours in good keeping it a lot. germany was building a new plane service defined for open skies. the suite you had in your brain. russia invested hundreds of millions of those dollars to build to, to put a plane certified for the g d. and you guys think sir said, no, that's it. then we're going out because the congress didn't want to invest hundreds

of millions of dollars of building new planes. and the plans were buying $7.00 oh, $7.00 both and the beginning of the 60s. and they have been since scratch after the us square the change in building new ones in the, in the business. because open size use the good find that provided not very accurate and the images. so, but that was important before you were being part of the country is that for russia, we do have the american read time capability that most likely the best in the world . so unbearable of interest. when should not interest them. see the treaty, those self interest of different countries rules right now. uh, the others will have to just simply, uh do do what they can when the other parties decide not to follow the rules because the rules not right now,

ready to reconcile with the political reality. in europe and the world, the samuel it, it looked to me like you were reacting to some of what pablo was saying there. did you want to jump in? yeah, well i basically, i wasn't really particularly reacting to that. but obviously, i think one of the other points i want to bring it happens that this is not just an issue regarding data and russia regulating arb central. the united states has been trying to basically move china into the global arms control regime. and china is that vastly resist to that? one of the efforts that make bomb peo, john bolton, and many of the senior officials in the tropic ministration want to do with actually ever we go, should have new start. was you regulate the chinese nuclear arsenal in the same way as the russians, the americans. and the russians have usually sided with vision on that. and pointed the finger at british, french and nato, that nuclear arsenals as well. and finally, as also a clash between russia and many of the european security institutions, it still remains a member of russia is out of the council of europe,

but it's still part of the o. s. c. but rushes in crashing with us. he repeatedly and undermining his credibility, accusing some of their operatives at f. b nash in the occupied territories of the national hands caressing them to a point that was, you have to withdraw. so this is a broader symptom in a broader problem that stands well beyond just aren't if you draw the other factors, like i just mentioned a peter, i saw you nodding along to some of what samuel was saying that did you want to jump in? yes, i am going to do much with the sentiment that there was so much distrust right now that i don't see basically like any opportunity for any new treaties that whatsoever i was saying about the start of uh, the new start uh that was 0 to that was the sentiments on the side to the trump administration with china kind of was left outside of that and uh uh, the needed to be through any go see, no, we haven't been doing pockets done in the country. so we ship nuclear weapons so.

so, so basically the hands are really open for all the players to do pretty much whatever they want. but the political distrust has never happened since even the cold war, because even on the cold war, there was 1st of all that we're pretty much 2 centers of flower, moscow in washington. and then after the cuban missile crisis, there was a kind of a mutual respect and understanding where the red lines for now there are no red lines in terms of conventional arms. this is really a, oh, oh, a conventional war on the scale of world war one of world war 2 going on in europe right now. so, i mean, again, i'm sorry i sound so is a mistake, but this is a very good situation. if you want to heal, actually trumps a senior advisor on the res. uh, and the very uh, i would say same person just to woodson. the said that we are in the beginning of

world war 3. and i mean, this is not an optimistic situation with the, with the bending of basically all the treaties right now at pablo. busy peter was talking about the cold war i, i want to go back a ways and, and ask you something, you know, from the american point of view negotiations over the c, f. e treaty were seen as successful. but i want to ask you about what it was like from the soviet perspective. was there a sense that gorbachev have given away too much ground to nato from the get go as well? yes, i mean, most likely, for myself, even no super big daughter, how much weapons, right? the russian military. so you would treat your cash dash for the big war in europe. and so when the treat us side, it turned out to do, we had to say and very quickly move norma some out on so hard there a way behind the you are urls instead of troy, a jack into the fire beast and dump,

but they are in the middle of a search or tie you are inside the area. so yes, there was a new russian military or take them by bit by surprise. the so you know, a trait by the terms that turned out when they think of them, even though most, i think the brown one, how many bias they had, and they had about a $100000.00. but you are to know, and most of them were in the european are russia and the eastern europe. so that's little so of course, always a problem because communications between the kremlin then the military, the russian lower trans. oh, well, a bit of a problem. the of the grandmother always knows what the beer on no actually have, and they're capable for and makes the political mistakes right. with boeing into your brain and what should turned out to be not very good for the job,

but the one you play about your own words, and there's going to be some kind of feature stablish. a new treat. this will have to appear to cheap for the situation under wraps award. no one needs in your advanced way now, but wouldn't be, was ready for it. and so that means i believe that no, that's true of security and conventional weapons and your will appear as should the premium conflict is risk. so samuel, i wanna dig in a little bit more into the, the history and the development of, of the c, f, e. treaty over the years, there was an updated c f e treaty that was drafted and approved in his don bowl in 1999 that took into account the new reality such as the warsaw pact, the solution, as well as nato expansion, because nato countries didn't ratify that agreement president put in suspended russia's participation in the c f. e treaty in 2007. then you have

a 2015 putting essentially suspending their participation in it. um, if nato countries hadn't ratified the agreement, why would nato expect russia to adhere to its obligations? well, that's basically what the russian argument is, is that the nato hundreds are tying at the regulation of the arm central regime to other aspects of russian conduct. there were also a couple of other follow ups that happened afterward to there was a c, a v, one a which limited the american forth to 250000 troops that work in that health. obviously there was a parallel and a close timing, obviously between 2007 with this withdrawal. and the unit speech which provided me couldn't handle that. and do you wash your messaging? and then the 2008 presidential elections, which sought to be replaced. i do meet you my bed. yeah. so i think that russian domestic politics probably played a role in shaping some but scripts of the western handling of c at that time. but the russians did point to double sanders with regards to a 1999. and also there's

a potential issue, but the violations of the c a v by some smaller states. in particular, as the bridge on had been noted that really hasn't been done much has been done to slap them on the right side of the. i said probably treaties like the ones we're discussing. how hard are they to put together, or how hard part are they? and how much effort does it take? what are the dimensions on the legal? she ation them from the national courses in europe. the form, the csc began in a long time before the last and all the these, there was talks and fox and the box nowhere to all during the cold war. but then the next year changed with gorbachev, ending the code words together with me and uh, the technicalities that where she during these everything eva successful folks, i'm conventional forces. oh wow. the see, she could be very swift. we put together. so when the boy did so i must,

your changes, and there's truth abilities. and if there are a negotiation going on and even on a level that allows sports lift movement forward when the political atmosphere is good for that. and probably we only have one minute left. let me just ask you very quickly. do you expect given the geopolitical moment that we're in right now? so many crises playing out concurrently. do you expect that we're going to just be seeing more treaties unravel, going forward? well, there's not that many list already. so yes, i mean, right now we're in the confrontational mode, but i get into this more and i'm often patient though, but it'd be besides your in rush or have to find that some kind of broke. well, some kind of modus vivendi moving forward. that's inevitable. all right, well, we have run out of time, so we're going to have to leave our conversation there. thanks so much for all of our guess peter eltoff problem. so i'll get an hour and samuel romani and thank you

to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website, delta 0 dot com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page, and that's facebook dot com, forward slash ag inside storage. you can also during the conversation on twitter or handle this at a inside story for me and how many of them and whole team here, bye for now. the the to the journey is almost 10 years in which the shakonda award for translation and

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