the states control information controlling the narrative, to dominate thing, the media. how does the narrative improve public opinion and enormous fight? it might not be the most important story about china of today. but that's what the public attention to. how is citizenship? listen, we played in the story, the listening post, i fixed the media. we don't cover the news, we cover the way the news is covered. according to described as the cornerstone of european security is on the rambling russia as finally withdrawing from the treaty on conventional armed forces in europe. in november, nato has condemned the move. but did the treaty ever work? and what does this mean for global arms control? this is inside story, the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm how much room treaties are hard fought and often take years to negotiate. they are designed to keep peace preventing rival countries from going to war. one agreement signed in 1990 towards the end of the cold war is the treaty on conventional armed forces in europe. the united states, other nato members, the former soviet union and its eastern european allies agreed to prevent military build up at their borders. but in recent years, nato's expansion towards the east and russia security interests have left that accord all but meaningless. now, moscow says it will withdraw from the treaty in november. we'll explore the implications with our guests in a moment. but 1st, this report pronounced here was defense editor alex could populus signed in 1990 towards the end of the cold war. the treaty unconventional forces in europe will see a fee with design does a confidence building measure between nato. and what was the end of all sole pact to the main aim was to limit the amount of conventional weapons in europe,

from the atlantic ocean to the ural mountains. nathan, the wholesale, packed with each limited 220000 tanks, $20000.00 pieces of heavy artillery. 6800 combat aircraft, and 2000 attack helicopters, the numbers seemed staggering today, but at the time it was filled with verification. so this ceiling on conventional arms in europe will prevent one side launching a sudden the tackle. the other. the agreement was part of a series of treaties designed to lower the tensions between the 2 blocks and then move towards peace and relative stability with the break up of the soviet union. and the dissolution of the wholesale packed, the regular version of these cold war treaties, along with nato's rapid expansion, east left russia increasing the worried native was still being used to contain it even before the war and ukraine. opponents military was being boasted with the united states and other nathan members beefing up their presents both in poland and the baltic, states,

fridays and elsewhere by russia that it would no longer comply with the treaty is yet another sewing. the dramatic escalation intentions between nato and russia. alex could topless the inside story. all right, let's go ahead and bring in our guests in ford liberty, north carolina is peter l. solve associated professor of international security studies at the national defense university in washington, dc. in moscow is problem solving, how're a defense in russian foreign policy analyst and in geneva is samuel romani, associate fellow at the royal united service institute and author of pollutants. we're on ukraine, a warm welcome to you all. thanks so much for joining us today on inside story, peter, let me start with you today. the conventional armed forces in europe, treaty, which is in a court that's often referred to as the cornerstone of european security. it's unraveling. so what does this mean for global arms control, as well as the disaster, but it was

a completely expect if that's all i would like to say clarify, i don't speak on behalf of the us government. i work for the government, but obviously just express my own wheels and i think it's a disaster of some of the political analysts now use this theory that's becoming back to some kind of new medieval isn't. uh, there's basically no trade is left and right and tall is so product using all arms to bill or that certain say most of the german company, they're making tax for ukraine now. and the budget is increased by hundreds of billions, ideally $500000000000.00 for the defense department, for the minister of defense of in germany. russia has realized that this war has still under the conventional war like everyone. ready speaking about the importance of the regular well hybrid warfare. now we have a conventional war and the you were not seen when the scale not seen since. ready

ready to so we coming back in some sense to pretty world war 3 world war one situation where there are no rules, no regulation, no just award for you or your rules. the battle mode has been compared to the battle of the world war one. this is pretty much an attrition war, and each of both sides need a lot of conventional arms. this is a very frightening cities, i would say for the whole world. probably. so moscow says now that it will withdraw from the c f e treaty in november. is there anything that could be done that would convince russia to return to the treaty? this is basically best for a long time rest. you're already withdrew from the street being december. oh, $7.00 after a half a year waiting period. so now the just formally scrapping is but it's not being

are complying for a very long time. the, these treaties, the cold war open size. uh so yeah. see others. they reflect that the political reality in europe when the cold war was over. and everyone was wanted to bizarre, build confidence and these changes were the offer this bizarre to build trust. now there's no trust with, uh, there is a moment instead of design moment. so with 3 days to not be so solid because political reality be, reflect that. no more, no longer exists. this is a different world. another world fly, a different treaties may be in the field sure to call to find and they more see this more unsafe world of conflict inside you are samuel,

you heard problem there, say that the cfc has essentially been dead for a long time. the president put in suspended rushes, participation in the c f. e treaty in 2007 in 2015. russia announced it was halting participation in the treaty. and now we know that russia is going to withdraw in november. has the treaty been effective since 2007 or even 2015 hasn't been dead all this time, or was there some cooperation going on at some level up until now as well? basically, i mean the treaty that that ip cfc is actually been dying since 1999. when there was a debate about the adapt into the treaty and the russians ukrainians. the bell russians were kind of catholic stats joined that, but the russians obviously wanted the whole of need or brussel, or they need to countries to be able to consider regulate their arms control at the enter their arms are cells in the same way. so it's been dying since 1999 is

different, celebrated after 2007, and then there was an indefinite total withdrawal in march of 20 today. so i don't think it's been really effective. i think that is part of the broader problem with the arms and drawbridge, and that we've seen effect new chart inspections as well as the depth of the eye enough trading. but these treaties remaining and even partially are normally in effect, created leasing atmosphere for dialog on arms regulation and also nuclear proliferation more broadly. so may have had in directors, in general, benefits for dialogue and cooperation. i don't think it's really been effective mechanism for a very long time. peter, earlier you were talking about the dissolution of this treaty and very start term talking about very, very dire consequences. the going forward. i want to ask you from your vantage point, did the c f e treaty ever really work and, and why should people have cared or not cared that it was or wasn't working as well? so i agree with the previous speaker and the fact that it had some symbolic significance. but people who are talking to each other,

i'm sure all sides were not exactly following this. the, the treaties in violating them very often and particularly in the recent years. but, but like with the nuclear aust stopped, are truly the mutual is also and then the in february by russia there was some framework for discussion. there is no framework for discussion and conversation of poll. now basically the hands are completely open for this up for the pro ration of nuclear proliferation and a regular conventional arms. uh so even though it may have not next in the past really well, there was some kind of a system in place. now there was nothing left for the much problem. obviously we can't have this conversation without talking about the war in ukraine from your vantage point, how much did the war and ukraine factor in 2 rushes decision to fully withdraw from

the treaty? a russian policy farm, possibly not changing it, no cetera, actually dramatically. there was this famous for the rest, the remaining security conference, russia turned from crime to operate nation to the west confrontation. but it's not direct with this rather slowly and solidly big treaties that were built on property shouldn't be gain increasingly irrelevant as see if he was it as a writing rather attractive treaty when that were fund tens of thousands of tax and other heavy. so you were moved out of your of and to the fire you stand in central asia and then decided peoria. and also, even when the cold war ended and the voters of ac ac were no longer much relevant. it's a very intrusive,

offside inspection regime was the main feature, especially for smaller european nations, have been to have the capabilities of the united states. there are in doubt so slow. and this lady was the main reason why russia is actually moved out of the treaty to prevent the on science inspection. there's of course the protocol still there, but that's not as intrusive furnished. so this is, as we talked for just for bit was being brody churches in georgia. then for the brand new venue, brain tree is an on site inspections. the game, something the direction you know, what they want to see, because all sides around to see actual back to readiness of units and tried to take to that up through sat right. ways that other shakespeares also disappeared when they opened size. because russia one after that,

but america didn't treat these also bad. i mean, there is no political action. but here's the point where they go on for the treaty of drinking and that you know, to not spend any more. the problem was mentioning some other treaties that have disintegrated over the years. i want to step back for a moment and take a look at some of the other agreements that were meant to strengthen europe security but are no longer effective. the open sky sweetie permits on, on reconnaissance flights over members dates of the territory to collect data on military forces and activities. it was signed in 1992 and came into force 10 years later. but the u. s. withdrew in 2020 accusing russia of repeated violations. russia pulled out the following year. then there's the 2011 vienna document and international agreement on military transparency in 2022. russia refused to share data with the other. 56 members. now samuel, let me go to you this gradual undoing of a group of interlocked agreements and arms control treaties. um,

does that mean that the existing security architecture in europe is no longer strong enough to ensure peace on the consummate? well, i think it definitely is true that i see that that's the case. i mean, the existing irving security architecture has been dismantled, one by one. mostly the hands of russian unilateralism or russian instruction. as of the russians, of course, would often claim that the west was trying to tie arms control the other political issues. for example, one of the reasons why they claim, but nato did not ratify the death and see of the treaty. because russia was maintaining peacekeeping contingent transistor. yeah. and also forces in george as well as committing atrocities in cash. yeah. that were unrelated terms withdrawal. so the russians will accuse the last to basically, yeah. find that arms controls and many other geopolitical conflicts and making the army controllers you more diluted by russian instruction isn't, has definitely played a part in the class at the european security order. recently with the americans tried to reach out to the russians to have talks and kyra, the russians was told that nothing happened. it's really, really

a bad situation. peter, let's talk about the knock on effect of all this. i mean, when the rest of the world sees that these treaties are unraveling, what does it mean for global security going forward as well as i already says, it's a pretty disaster situation. there are basically many centers in the world now. pennsylvania used to have this formal 4 plus one that was china or iran, or russia north korea plus non state actors. now it's really the geo political situation. there are new arriving centers of power, like dorothy india pockets stop brazil. so basically the world is characterized by this tremendous dis, balance of power. this is the most critical situation, i would argue, since it wouldn't be sort of a crisis. and so ways of going to the center. so flower can act on their own militarily, politically. and of course in terms of production of

o r s and local conflicts, you can see the turkey in russia. now turkey in theory, i'd say, emphasized in theory is a natal member, but it's pretty much dealing up, oh, you know, very friendly manner with the russia dividing the territories and speed are some influence, for example, in syria. so m, o, many role g actors now will be able to produce arms. so do on their own work. the bottom, the group is operating in molly and the central african republic. so basically there's no roles anymore left in those security agreements. then there is a global styles which is quite sympathetic of, or at least neutral towards the rush on the board. if you need a grain there are, there are some amazing that the country, like south africa, might be helping ability early to russia in the conflict. so i know this is a very,

very good and situation. i would say the problem we spoke a moment ago about the open skies treaty. that was one example that we gave when going through the history of some of these treaties that have been, have come apart. um, when the us withdrew from the open skies treaty. how was that perceive, how much did that decision ratchet up the level of mistrust that we're not witnessing between the us and russia? well, it is not only between the us and russia between the us and your think because you're very much more likely to have the open skies the interested hundreds of millions of hours and keeping your belie germany was building a new plane service defined for open skies the suite you had in your brain. russia invested hundreds of millions of those dollars to build to, to put a plane certified for the treaty. and you guys think sir said, no, that's it. then we're going out because the congress didn't want to invest hundreds

of millions of dollars of both the new planes and all the plans. we're buying 7 o 7 boots and the beginning of the site is and they have been since grad after the us square the change in building new ones. the in the, in the b because open size use the good find the provided, not very accurate. and the images so, but that was important for you were being part of the country is that for russia, we do have the american re time capability that's in most likely the best in the world. so the interest of the street when she was not interest and she'd feed the treaty, those self interest of different from sure these rules right now, the others will have to just simply do do what they tell them when the other part is decided not to follow the rules because the rules not right now,

ready to reconcile with the political reality in europe and the world. the samuel, it look to me like you are reacting to some of what pablo was saying there. did you want to jump in? yeah, well i basically, i wasn't really particularly reacting to that, but obviously i think one of the other points i want to bring it up is that this is not just an issue regarding data all and russia regulating arb central. the united states has been trying to basically move china into the global arms control regime . and china is that vastly resist to that. one of the efforts that make bon peo, john bolton in many of the senior officials, the trumpet ministration, want to do was actually ever we go, should have new start. would you regulate the chinese nuclear arsenal in the same way as the russians, the americans and the russians have usually sided with vision on that. and pointed the finger at british french, anita, that nuclear arsenals as well. and finally, there's also a clash between russia and many of the european security institutions that still remains demand or a russia is out of the council of europe,

and it's still part of the o. s. c. but russia isn't crashing with us. he repeatedly and undermining his credibility, accusing some of their operatives at f. b nash in the occupied territories of the national hands caressing them to a point that was, you have to withdraw. so this is a broader symptom and a broader problem based as well beyond just are and if you draw the other factors, like i just mentioned a peter, i saw you nodding along to some of what samuel was saying that did you want to jump in? yes, i can do it very much with the sentiment that there was so much distrust right now that i don't see basically like any opportunity for any new trade. is that what's that i was saying about the start of the new start that's was very true. that was the sentiments on the side to the trump administration with china kind of was left outside of that and that needed to be do we need to go see, now we have to be in boxes done in the country. so we ship nuclear weapons so. so,

so basically the hands are really open for all the players to do pretty much whatever they want. but the political distrust has never happened since even the cold war, because even on the cold war, they will. first of all, that we're pretty much to sense there's a flower moscow in washington. and then after the cuban missile crisis, there was a kind of a mutual respect and understanding where the red lines for now there are no red lines in terms of conventional arms. this is a really oh oh, oh, a conventional war on the scale of world war one on world war 2, going on in europe right now. so, i mean, again, i'm sorry i sound so it's a mistake, but this is a very good situation. if you want to heal, actually trumps a senior advisor on the res. uh and the very uh, i would say same person just to isn't these the, to be, are in the beginning

a warm works and we, and i mean this is not an optimistic situation with the, with the bending will basically all the treaties right now at pablo uh peter was talking about the cold war i, i want to go back a ways and ask you something, you know, from the american point of view negotiations over the c, f. e treaty were seen as successful. but i wanna ask you about what it was like from the soviet perspective. what is there a sense that gorbachev have given away too much ground to nato from the get go as well. yeah. so, i mean, most likely, for myself, even no super big daughter, how much weapons, right? the russian military. so i would treat your cash dash for the big war in europe. and so when the treat us side, it turned out that we had to say and very quickly move norma some out on. so hard there a way behind the you are urls instead of troy,

a jack into the fire beast and dump, but they are in the middle of a search or tie you are inside the area. so yes, there was a new russian military warranty above it by surprise. the so you know, a treat uh by the terms that turns out when they given the size of the brown one, how many times they had about a $100000.00. but you are to know, and most of them were in the european are russia and the eastern europe. so that's little so of course, always a problem because communications between the kremlin then the military, the russian lower trans. oh, well, a bit of a problem. the of the grandmother always knows what the beer on no actually have, and they're capable for and makes the political mistakes right. with boeing into your brain and what should turned out to be not very good for the job,

but the one you bring a bunch of words and there's going to be some kind of feature stablish. a new treat . this will have to appear to cheap for the situation under wraps award. no one needs in your advance way now, but wouldn't be, was ready for it. and so that means i believe that, you know, the architecture of security and conventional weapons in europe will appear after the a brand new conference is really so samuel, i want to dig in a little bit more into the, the history in the development of, of the c, f e treaty. over the years there was an updated c f e treaty that was drafted and approved in his don rule in 1999 that took into account the new reality such as the warsaw pact, the solution as well as nato expansion. because nato countries didn't ratify that agreement, president put in suspended russia's participation in the c f. e treaty in 2007. then you have

a 2015 foot and essentially suspending their participation in it. if nato countries hadn't ratified the agreement, why would nato expect russia to adhere to its obligations? well, that's basically what the russian argument is, is that the nato hundreds are tying up the regulation of the arm central regime to other aspects of oppression conduct. there were also a couple of other follow ups that happened afterward to that was to see if you won a, which limited the american, forth to 250000 ships that work. and that help obviously there was a parallel and a close timing, obviously between 2007 with this withdrawal and the unit speech which provided me a quote and then bills. and then do you wash your messaging? and then the 2008 presidential elections were supposed to be replaced. i give it to my dad. yeah. so i think that russian domestic politics probably played a role in shaping some, but scripts of the west you're handling, i've seen if you at that time. but the russians did point to double sanders with regards to uh, 1999. and also there's a potential issue,

but the violations of the c a v by some smaller states in particular as the bridge john had been noted that really hasn't been done much has been done to slap them on the right side of it. probably treaties like the ones we're discussing, how hard are they to put together, or how hard far are they and how much effort does it take? well, the dimension on the goal, she ation them from the national courses in europe. the form, the csc began in a long time before the last and all the these, there was talks and fox and the box nowhere to all during the cold war. but then they told me to ask my shit changed with gorbachev, ending the code words together with me. and uh, the technicality is that where is she doing these everything eva successful folks? i'm conventional forces. oh wow. this see, she could be very swift. we put together,

so when the boy did so i must here changes a, there's a bill of these. and if there are a negotiation going on and even on a level that allows for swift movement forward. when a political mass, monsieur is good for that. and probably we only have one minute left. let me just ask you very quickly. do you expect given the geopolitical moment that we are in right now? so many crises playing out concurrently. do you expect that we're going to just be seeing more treaties unravel going forward? well, there's not many list already. so yes, i mean, right now we're in a confrontational mode, but again, this war williams and i'm from nation though, but the size your in rush will have to find that some kind of pretty pro cool. some kind of modus vivendi moving forward, batch and then all right, well, we have run out of time, so we're gonna have to leave our conversation there. thanks so much for all of our guess peter eltoff problem. so i'll get an hour and samuel romani and thank you for

watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website, delta 0 dot com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page and that's facebook dot com, forward slash ag inside storage. you can also during the conversation on twitter or handle this at a inside story for me. i'm having a gentleman, a whole team here. bye for now. the the basic realities. just the un fits the purpose was like many critics sites,

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the we speak with others to be comfortable side no matter where it takes a police. we have cnn and power and puncture. we tell your story, we are your voice news, your net out is here, the hello there. i'm the stalls here to and or how with the top stories here on how to 0. a doctor's association into john's west stuff for region says 1000 civilians have been killed best since mid april. the group is appealing to the international community, comparing the situation to the one then genocide corresponded have a morgan reports on the financing has been ongoing in the dark for region, specifically in west to dar for 4 weeks now. there's no network coverage.