of average, yeah, lots of sunshine through to the new week, but that's the weather and when the weather that's picking up, blowing into cape town, we are expecting that to push its way further east bringing a scattering of thunderstorms to south africa next week. the investigative journalism was a very and it's hard as it would have been absolutely impossible to offer any like that before global exploits in discussion, the internet did not need to be the greatest to live master. it was in the history of the world voices from different corners, vision programs that opened your eyes to an alternative view of the world today. not many people have seen this business to select on now to sierra molly's military rulers are proposing changes to its constitution. they say will pay the way for return to civilian will put in such

a divided country. will it serve any purpose? and what role will the military have? this is inside store the hello and welcome to the program. i'm how much in june it's a vote to approve or reject constitutional changes in molly supporter. say the amendments will ease of transition from military rule to a civilian lead government, but skepticism is growing. after years of cruise, political instability and social unrest miss trust and authority continues to be a fundamental problem. so is this referendum about actual change, or just political theater, and our democratic elections even feasible in the future, given the countries political and social tensions? we'll explore this and more with our guests in a moment. but 1st our correspondent nicholas hock is in molly's capital. but michel

was now were in downtown from the nation square. this is where molly's have come out in the past due over through previous governments and to express themselves over the way their country is run. now they'll get a chance to express themselves to the valley historic both. it's a story because there's been this desire to change the constitution since 1991. and it seems that most has really changed until advise to be god's done is succeeding where previously democrats and re elected president have failed in organizing this referenda know ahead of this referendum. there was much debate among amongst intellectual academics, members of civil society in the opposition, in what would be inside the text. those that are for say, a group greater autonomy to the regions, more power to the president. and it changes, for instance, the role of the french language no longer in the official language, but

a working language. it recognizes the diversity of the sovereignty of the muggy in states. but those that are against a 70 secular nature of the tech is not in line with this country. that is a muslim majority country that has a long history of islam. and then there are those that say that this vote is not credible simply by the fact that it's being carried by the mo, the military turns on, but also by the fact that many millions outside of the capital here and by my code, will not be able to take part in the vote, why? because there is large parts of the north in the center of the country that are in the hands of arms loosely tied up in ice. so, but no matter what. 8000000 volumes are expected to vote and have a space over the way their country is gover. and this ahead of the schedule presidential election that are expected to take place next year. from my

coat in multi nicholas hall for inside story, molly has struggled with political unrest for years back in 2012 the military over through the elected government in what was described as a major setback for democracy in africa. but transitional government was eventually established, but it too was overthrown by the military and 2020. and yet another to followed the next year. now faced with a political crossroads, the military says it's paving the way for democracy and civilian led government, particularly with the presidential elections scheduled for 2024. all right for more and all of this i'm joined by our guests in bama. co is fatima alonzo are consulted on peace and security, and molly on the side of the region. she's also the founder of to want a piece network in london is alex winds director of the after program for chatham house. and then you're on day is my reader as a billow president of africa, international media group and political commentator on africa affairs. a warm

welcome to you on thanks so much for joining us today on inside story. i'm father. let me start with you today. um supporters of the referendum say that it's supposed to pay the way for a transition to civilian rule if it passes? will it really do that? i mean, this isn't really a great because patients has the, the new re from them actually use what we can say. that is a big step before actually do according to government giving the election agenda, which will be coming out very soon. and the new constitution is uh, mentioned that the president, the current president, can already design special needs a ministry, a president can resign from his ministry to upsetting these ends himself to become a president. so there is a chance that maybe the, the current president, uh, besides defends himself to the presidency, which is supported by the,

by the new constitution. so you got it. so it's something that can happen. what do you define that? how does seeing it in re june? that's on it a another debate? i bet i feel like in several of democracy uh days that big 7 uh in that sense because even the fact that the, according to the gym is able to actually write the study for and um, and go to even mobilizing the populations from what is a big step because if i'm already doing 2017, i was unable to do it because of the car. does that? does that agreement? i, i wrote some of the new things i was was in the, in the new constitution and backs. uh they use uh, 3 different points that people are like worried about concerned about the ingenuity for them done which is like the sticky,

the state because the images neither is asking for me to functional stage, which i also think that the eat so in so not something you because into formal constitutes some it was stupid seeking state. so why these now that you just need or is that going against that? so that's something that we should actually move who got into deeply. and the 2nd find is the rooms because the arabs are concerned that the power is not the centralize enough. oh let's. the power is given to the local news. and so they don't really see themselves in the indian unix randall. and the 3rd find these small power gains with the president. so the point to call either is those to the themself. some of them don't see themselves in the, in the problem given to the president in the way that the president can be solve the problem in any time he wants. and also the higher as you do 3. 0 cool. so also

is limited by the president. so what day did you this, your people up against that? so the, i'm sorry to interrupt you. i'm sorry, you know if you want, let's get into those details. it just in a short little while, let me ask alex right now if this referendum passes, do you believe that the military will actually relinquish power as well? that is an open question as you have previous speaker just said, is very unfair whether the interim leader going to will actually run in the election. and so what do you know potentially become a civilian leader? and so that's a question mark over this. but i would agree that this is an important step. there's been such negativity and pessimism about molly and it's an ashley. but the, the, the whole way of looking at money at the moment is just to contain it. that this is a road map. it was agreed last year in july,

the economic community of west african states, the west african regional body said it would lift its sanctions if there was a road map. and this friend referendum is a, is a stepping stone. and that road map to, to, to elections next year. they were meant to have been in march this referendum, but there's been a delay. so it is important to see this as a, as a process, however imperfect. it might be, we have some risks, the particular one i think is the concentration of power in the presidency. and we know and also will malia and come out and fight, which we will get to see the turnouts response of the referendum. marie roget um, in such a divided country if this referendum actually passes will it? will it actually serve any purpose? it's a story is story telling you validate from the current objective. they want people to believe that this is really a step to works because uh,

the organizing something looking like eviction. and because trauma, reeves even elected democratic it demo truck to move practically leaks elected regimes when not able to organize that route. brandon, but the question is, um, is we for random to say something positive if the outcome is that, as it's been mentioned already, to be the president we'd be, we'd have more power. i'm each readings will towards a dictatorship because he can do some b. c will appoint department is the government and he's missed them whenever he wants to move out any account uh, power and easily uh can you go to going today to move forward when the country? so divide it about that because many believe that the, the,

the military agenda is not legitimate in organizing such a heavy thing in changing constitution and things like that. why they are not elected. they're being there. they said, you know, they took power to say, telling people that they are there to, to help a set to the security issue. we see that the file from it and the now a closing. so it's kind of a direction because none of these issues on the table. i touched, you know, the, uh they going to leave our after these is, i'm not sure. when do you have more democracy after that you are not sure. what do you have more? you need 2 more piece inputs boundary after that, you're not sure. so what is happening now? the important thing is which is happening now, is that i see me going down once to run after the transition and that

he's at chattering a go solution which leads to that and the we, we are used to act we, we have a car on the situation inside trafficking in public way, it's a is not a community to agenda, but as i see in government, but the president to idea would it be finishing his 2 jobs and he's not allowed to run the game. so he's trying to change that. we've a new constitution, same thing we've been referring to murray or say, i'm sorry we, i'm sorry to interrupt you, but i, i want to ask with regards to the point you made about a see me going to, i actually want to ask the fall to him. about that fall to my do we know at this stage if i assume you're going to who is the john to leader who is the entering president, that it whether or not he will actually run for president when the next round of elections happens? and what would the implications of that be if you did? oh, that's me. that's

a really good catch on. everybody's asking themselves. but then you would, if random, i've tried to give him what are they shuffled around for the president? so the chances of him running is they're really he has the right to run by the phase. we don't see any other political leaders who can run against him right now because the political leaders have lost track of the population. so the population right now is you who kind of have more trust to us and equally time then to, to the political leaders so that he's not as strong a woman as right now. so the chances of given him being asked by the population to run for the presidency is higher because there is no stronger point in right now in place. and i think the implication of that i don't know, nationally, it's supported by the local population, but i don't know internationally how, how the international community will go about that. but do this, what i'm doing? i try to give him a transition to run for the presidency,

which he decides to design from his military duty, which will know in the next 2 months that he is coming. alex looked to me like you wanted to jump in on that point that uh fatima was making. uh so please go ahead. yeah. yeah. so um the, the, the, the drop constitution um the, the, the referendum is tomorrow. it emphasizes the present and cannot extend for 2 tons of the clock starts back. and there is a regional norm of 2 terms in that out. but it also provides amnesty for the abuses that happened before the new constitution, which will therefore exonerate the, you know, the juncture and all those. i do look at it in a way of but this is transition politics. the situation in, in, in molly is very grave, but the states and by mic that out to bama co, doesn't have that affective control of a large part. so of molly,

but we do need to think of ways of how to move forward. a bear in mind also that the yesterday at the un in new york, the foreign minister of molly, after like a deal to said that the un peace keeping operation mendoza and i should leave promptly. and so again, you know, this raises issues of how to what find a way forward in a very difficult situation. and i do think that this referendum might at least be attempt of a directional travel, however, floor and the problems that were the other speakers have have highlighted murray, or is a how much new question, the legality of amendments to the constitution being carried out by a non democratically elected government, and that's one of the major problems. and especially when you know what they have in the back of the mines is not really to uh to keep the counter new institutions.

uh because that, uh, that would be an emergency. that would be something we actually need. the problem is that they do me all these just to find a way out of the commitment not to run as a transition and transitional a president. he's noted that he can meet the team so not to run towards the equal washed towards on 5 of those and the it now he's trying to overcome back hood, that's basically what it is all about. and we've been seeing that many times in inc, and in many of those situations, and we just not surprised and organizing or referring to be something easier than in lecture because is a question. yes or no, what? yeah, they would come up, i'm say, well 90 percent little agreed and you know, wait to to, to check that to verify that we have that many times before. that's

a classic situation. and we will have that again. we have that in code the while we have practice in, in calculus country. so it's basically, that's just what is happening now because molly is in the phase very difficult situation as we know. and especially what they came for was to we saw some kind of security. so i'm kind of old actual that they can try to implants new, a new government, new civilian government, because we cannot go back immediately. government for forever. and that was a job. and the under and in doing so, maybe uh make sure that and all of the normal life of people use easy. you don't see that really um, but what i can say is that be the military junk is, has some kind of popularity because they have been working to undo uh,

of the nearly legacy. and that this is very popular to our french, not only in my lead, and that's being very what would the french army that's been very popular in order countries that can come home where i am way i know the color scheme estimate, which i had a little fence and the fact that in the new constitution he's seeing that trend french is no longer a new official language business. colonial, like he's saying is a working language, but pretty cool with that. but the point is, uh do, do we e x, do we accept a government which i know the elected trafficking? we've random's and, and we all that i'm not even sure that actual warranty will do elections if in really buried, hey, i'm deep, i'm sorry. what i'm sorry to interrupt you, i want to ask fall to my question. you heard alex felt him a few minutes ago,

talked about the fact that molly is called on to you and to withdraw its peacekeeping mission from the country without delay. uh, how much does all this complicate the situation on the ground? i mean, 04 weeks now or even say for a month. uh, we have to put this under the seat of the young people asking for the dispatch of them and it's not so that's not something new because they have been always a critic on demand based off the menus. my and my lead that it does not reflect can do the already in the concrete so days, no, just to keep. so why would you be cutting it? because we came, the it is keeping me turn into concrete. so i, i'm hoping that this piece that i would like to drop how to get into the un, what would be accident reports, unity for us to actually discuss on demand dates with them. and it's not cannot leave completely, but it's very important for them to actually see how they're going to adjust the day monday to do the on any of the local situation. but my only worried and what

are, you know, a lot of other people use this type of position on the back of the nation, which has the different elements barks, because we have a lot of us work for you in this week in the nation, in going and somebody was leading off to you writing about my people that are going to go out of job. so it really has planned for those people because when you have a youth out of jobs, that as we did a lot of really to be able to get that by i'm by the attorneys. so we would need the water. he's like, he's been caught in the government lift gate or the economy come crisis would take on all those of you who are going to be out of jo when we use my leave. so so, so that's the main concern, the development of parks, dissemination part of the nation. that's my, how would they currently government be able to fit in to the economy which is already weak. but the chinese supporting actually the departure of the meetings and

i meet some cities have been in. ready science for a long time, alex, i saw you are reacting to some more thoughts about was saying there looks like i want to jump in. i think this is a. yeah, this is a really important point. i mean i know some has been operational since 2000 and. busy 13, and it's a major employee and source of investment into, into, in, into molly. and so it's, it's withdrawal, as you've just heard, is going to be very disruptive. so it is important that the un continues to have a mandate for like p support and development. the, the, the, the municipal mandate as a peacekeeping operation has failed. now it does need to go, but that needs to be something that continues. and actually my new smyrna and algeria were really influential, important and, and, and pushing full this product roadmap. we have a referendum the so that good offices have had a role the you and special representative based and in and by my po. and

i'll go see one made that point yesterday in the un security council, for example, alex, i also want to ask you about this potential timeline for elections. and the expectation is that when elections happen, it would probably be in 2024. do you think that's realistic? is such a good question and slip the security such your issue in, in, in, in large parts of molly is very of, uh, you know, it is very volatile, alarming. there was some areas very difficult to pull off and election. there are local political compromises, for example, right? and you know, in the north of the country around kiddo that we're, you know, to are at groups at the moment. and you've also got radical islamic groups, that of a, you know, kind of profiting outs of some of the security vacuums. so i could see the calendar of elections being delayed because of in security and the russian investments into security. the wagner crew having provided security guarantees which the,

which the jump to has set that, that, that, that they are doing. so this is problematic. and uh, but it is really important that there is some sort of an election as part of this process. but how that's going to be inclusive and difficult security situations is you know, i have no clear answer to that. morero's a what, what do you think when it comes to the prospect of elections? do you think that this timeline can be adhered to and do you think that the prospect of a prospect of elections can, is even feasible when it comes to all the, all the tensions, the political and societal all security challenges. and molly, but you know, i would say the background think is that trust time. uh, they may need to jump to have to be a timeline when they will retreat and the fellow, they say 5 years, they want to buy his transition, which is in regular tra, finally elected

a regime elected president. so it shows that they don't want to meet that the being, you know, discussing we've, we've got a glass on that and going back and forth towards months, 18 months now 20. so when they least not something that they want to do, they don't want to leave. so i just wanted to see something of that from the new smack and the appropriate on that. um, the, the, the color and losing the junk immediately junk. what they've been doing is to, as we use the political space of money, you know, when you decide to out of the french, many different kind of the same that especially africans. but uh and uh you decide to disrupt your relations with your neighbors with a cost. so we've decided that and you know, going to to you and, and i think starting the president of yeah, nice, nice. yeah, seeing

a basically mean basically that he's not from these. yeah, because he's like scheme, those kind of things. and now you know, expanding or new, you know, we had a lot of, uh, a phone. uh i would say pop most embody will be leaving now and the new smiley one them to leave. i mean, i don't thing is the very good thing for money to we in desoto for isolate ashton, a 8, why all the people to try to extend that pipeline. she's the only 2 bathroom in russia, and you don't see it, you, you, you just ask, what is a plan? what is the largest picture for that where you're going to expanding, expanding, chasing people. h a o, you know the meeting, everything. so what, what degree did the, the way i don't use it, we problem now also, and then i think is the really going over the job, the transition, the scandals move student should be best to an elected go father. my,

we don't have a whole lot of time left, but i want to ask you about one particular aspect when it comes to all this many molly and won't be able to take part in the vote because there's large parts of the country that are in the hands of arm groups linked to outside and i so how does that impact all this? so yeah, that's why i from the beginning i always feel like going towards the election right away is not the solution. if we look, i did what molly, since the independence today, we had have a side included tasks and each, each quoted cause we have been covering the same way of solving the problems, a glass international community. put something on the concrete force as well and organize the election. we don't really solving the, the cause of the problem, which is the, is security and which is the like the fact that the money on the government does not have the control of our territory at home. so if i started to stand again to go to the election,

we don't really solve investigating issues. we will not have another who did, i would say in another 3 years, and i'm not up for you is already been 5 years again. so i've seen that before, even going to organize the electron is very, very important to come out with concrete security incline on how to save control over the uh they territory of the country. otherwise, we'll go to the electronic data phase and i can guarantee you that the election will happen. election will have speeds, will be delayed in a month or 2 month, but the next on will happen. mm hm. and we might have an elected president. it will be a former president or it's going to be a civilians, but it's not a guarantee for a long lasting democracy because we haven't really solved the real cause of the problem, which is the, the, the security situation in defense that we don't have the control of our to retreat and days to a lack of who governments in the, in the way of in the country. all right, well we have run out of times we're gonna have to leave our conversation there.

thanks so much. all of our guess fall to my lunch on alex wines and marie roget below. and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website. obviously we're com and for further discussion go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ag inside story. you can also during the conversation on twitter, our handle is at the j inside stores from him. how much enjoying the whole team here, bye for now, the the,

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