facing the teams, does the un fits of purpose was like many critics sites just pump solution doesn't get anywhere near enough done to the amount of money that is poured into hard hitting into abuse. do you think that to the alliance of washing it's enough for body to go on its own and built it's on thoughts providing on for centuries, people have been taken care of are. so i have every confidence that future generations will do it as well via the story on told to how does era molly's military rulers are proposing changes to its constitution. they say will pay the way for a return to civilian will put in such a divided country. will it serve any purpose? and what role will the military have? this is inside stored the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm how much in june it's a vote to approve or reject the constitutional changes in molly. supporters say the amendments will either transition from military rule to a civilian led government, but skepticism is growing. after years of cruise, political instability and social unrest, mistrust, and authority continues to be a fundamental problem. so is this referendum about actual change, or just political theater, and our democratic elections even feasible in the future, given the countries political and social tensions? we'll explore this and more with our guests in a moment. but 1st our correspondent nicholas talk is in molly's capital. bama co with more were in downtown by my so i the nation squared. this is where molly's have come out in the past due over through previous governments and to express themselves over the way their country is run. now they'll get a chance to express themselves through the ballot box in the historic vote. it's a story because there's been this desire to change the constitution since 1991. and

it seems that i'm always really treat you and tell advise to be gods. us is succeeding where previously democrats is re elected. presidents have failed in organizing this referendum know ahead of this referendum. there was much debate among, among the intellectual academics, members of civil society in the all positions in what would be inside the text. those that are for, say, it grids greater autonomy to the regions, more power to the president. and it changes, for instance, the role of the french language no longer and official language, but a working language is recognized as the diversity of the sovereignty of the molly in states. but those that are against a 70 secular nature of the tech is not in line with this country. that is a muslim majority country that has a long history of islam. and then there are those that say that this vote is not

credible simply by the fact that it's being carried by the military turns on. but also by the fact that many millions outside of the capital here in by my code, will not be able to take part in the vote. why? because there's large parts of the doors in the center of the country that aren't in the hands of arms loosely outside and i so but no matter what, 8000000 volumes are expected to vote and have a stake over the way their country is gover. and this ahead of the schedule presidential election that are expected to take place next year. from some echo embodied nicholas hall for inside story. molly had struggled with political unrest for years back in 2012, the military over through the elected government in what was described as a major setback for democracy in africa. a transitional government was eventually established,

but it too was overthrown by the military in 2020. and yet another 2 followed the next year. now faced with a political crossroads, the military says it's paving the way for democracy and civilian led government, particularly with the presidential elections scheduled for 2024. all right, for more and all this i'm joined by our guests in bama co is fatima island star consulted on peace and security, and molly on the side of region. she's also the founder of to want a piece network in london is alex whines director of the after program for chatham house. and then one day is maria or is a billow president of africa international media group and political commentator on africa affairs. a warm welcome to you all and thanks so much for joining us today on inside story. i'm father. let me start with you today. um supporters of the referendum say that it's supposed to pay the way for a transition to civilian rule if it passes? will it really do that? i mean, this isn't really a great because patients has the,

the new re from them actually use what we can say. that is a big step before i actually do quarterly to government giving the election agenda, which will be coming out very soon. and the new constitution is uh, mentioned that the president, the current president, can, i've tried to design special need a ministry, a president can resign all from his ministry to upsetting these ends himself to become a president. so there is a chance that maybe the, the current president, uh, besides defends himself to the presidency, which is supported by the, by the new constitution. so you got it. so it's something that can happen. what do you define that? how does seeing it in uh, the june that's on it a another debate. i bet i feel like in several of the more curzy

uh days that big 7 uh in that sense because even the fact that the according to the gym is able to actually write the city for and um, and go to even mobilizing the populations from what is a big step because if i'm already doing 2017, it was unable to do it because of the car. does that? does that agreement? uh, i wrote some of the new things i was was in the, in the new constitution and backs. uh they use uh, 3 different points that people are like worried about uh, concerned about the ingenuity for them done. which is like the sticky, the state. because the images neither is asking for me to functional stage, which i also think that the eat. so it's not something you because into formal constitutes some it was stupid seeking state. so why these now that you just need

or is that going against that? so that's something that we sure actually knew who got into deeply. and the 2nd find is the rooms because the arabs are concerned that the power is not the centralized enough. uh, lesser powered is given to the local news. and so they don't really see themselves in the indian unix randall. and the 3rd find these small power unions with the president. so the pointed to go leader is those to the themself. some of them don't see themselves in the, in the public events of the president, in the way that the president can to solve the problem. and any time he wants, and also the high as you do 3. 0 cool. so also easily by the president. so what day did you this, your people i against that? so the, i'm sorry to interrupt you. i'm sorry, no jump. let's get into those details. it just in a short little while, let me ask alex right now if this referendum passes,

do you believe that the military will actually relinquish power as well? that is an open question as you have previous speaker just said is very unfair whether the interim leader going to will actually run in the election. and so what do you know potentially become a civilian leader? and so that's a question mark over this. but i would agree that this is an important step. there's been such negativity and pessimism about molly and it's a nationally but the, the, the whole way of looking at money at the moment is just to contain it. that this is a road map. it was agreed last year in july, the economic community of west african states, the west african regional body said it would lift its sanctions if there was a road map. and this friend referendum is a, is a stepping stone. and that road map to, to, to elections next year. they were meant to have been in march this referendum, but there's been a delay. so it is important to see this as a, as a process,

however imperfect. it might be, we have some risks, the particular one i think is the concentration of power in the presidency. and we know and also will malia and come out and fight, which we will get to see the turnouts response of the referendum. marie roget um, in such a divided country if this referendum actually passes will it? will it actually serve any purpose? it's a story is story telling you validate from the current objective. they want people to believe that this is really a step towards because uh, the organizing something looking like eviction. and because trauma, reeves even elected democratic it demo truck to move practically leaks elected regimes when not able to organize that route around. but the question is, um,

is we for random to say something positive if the outcome is that, as it's been mentioned already to be the president, we'd be, we'd have more power. i'm each readings will towards a dictatorship because he can do some b, c will. one department is the government and he's missed them whenever he wants to move out any account uh, power and easily uh, can you go to school today to move forward when the country? so divide it about that because many believe that the, the, the military agenda is not legitimate in organizing such a heavy thing in changing constitution and things like that. why they are not elected. um, they're being there. they, they said, you know, they took power to say, telling people that they are there to, to help

a set to the security issue. we see that the file from it and the now a closing. so it's kind of a direction because none of these issues on the table. i touched, you know, the, uh they going to leave our after these is, i'm not sure. when do you have more democracy after that you are not sure. what do you have more? you need 2 more piece in the counter you after that, you're not sure. so what is happening now? the most important thing is which is happening now. is that a see me going down once to run after the transition and that he's at chattering a go solution which leads to that and the we, we, i used to act we, we have a car on the situation in central african republic way. it's a,

it's not a community to agenda, but as i see in government, but the president to idea would it be finishing his 2 jobs and he's not allowed to run the game. so he's trying to change that. we've a new constitution. same thing we've been referring to murray or say, i'm sorry we, i'm sorry to interrupt you, but i, i want to ask with regards to the point you made about a see me going to, i actually want to ask the fall to him about that fall to my do we know at this stage, if i assume you're going to who is the john to leader who is the entering president, that it whether or not he will actually run for president when the next round of elections happens? and what would the implications of that be if you did? oh, that's me. that's a very good catch on. everybody's asking themselves. but then you would a friend. um, i've tried to give him what are they shuffled around for the president? so the chances of him running is they're really he has the right to run by the phase. we don't see any other political leaders who can run against him right now

because the political leaders have lost track of the population. so the population right now is you who kind of have more trust to us and equally time then to, to the political leaders so that he's not as strong a woman as right now. so the chances of given him being asked by the population to run for the presidency is higher because there is no stronger point in right now in place. and i think the implication of that i don't know, nationally, it's supported by the local population, but i don't know internationally how, how the international community will go about that. but do this, what i'm doing? i try to give him a transition to run for the presidency, which he decides to design from his military duty, which will know in the next 2 months that he is coming. alex looked to me like you wanted to jump in on that point that uh fatima was making. uh so please go ahead. yeah. yeah. so um the, the, the, the drop constitution um the,

the, the referendum is tomorrow. it emphasizes the present and cannot extend for 2 tons of the clock starts back. and there is a regional norm of 2 times in that out. but it also provides amnesty for the abuses that happened before the new constitution, which will therefore exonerate the, you know, the juncture and all those. i do look at it in a way of but this is transition politics. the situation in, in, in molly is very grave, but the states and by mic that out to bama co, doesn't have that affective control of a large parts of, of, of molly. but we do need to think of ways of how to move forward. a bear in mind also the the, yesterday at the you weren't in new york, the foreign minister of molly. after like a deal to said that the un peace keeping operation. mendoza. and i should leave

promptly. and so again, you know, this raises issues of how to what find a way forward in a very difficult situation. and i do think that this referendum might at least be attempt of a directional travel, however, floor and the problems that were the other speakers have have highlighted murray, or is it how much do you question the legality of amendments to the constitution being carried out by a non democratically elected government, and that's one of the major problems. and especially when you know what they have in the back of the mines is not really to uh to keep the counter new institutions. uh because that, uh, that would be an emergency. that would be something we actually need. the problem is that they do me all these just to find a way out of the commitment not to run as

a transition and transitional a president. he's not allowed, he can meet the team so not to run towards the equal watch towards on 5 most and the it now he's trying to uh, overcome back hood. that's basically what it is all about. and we've been seeing that many times in inc, and in many of those situations, and we just not surprised and organizing or referring to be something easier than in lecture because is a question. yes or no, what? yeah, they would come up, i'm say, well 90 percent of dental agreed and you have no way to to, to check that to verify that we had that many times before. that's a classic situation. and we will have that again. we have that in code the while we have practice in, in calculus country. so it's basically, that's just what is happening now because monday is in the phase, very difficult situation as we know. and especially what they came for

was to restore some kind of security, some kind of order so that they can try to implants new, a new government, new civilian government. because we cannot go back immediately, government for forever. and that was a job. and the under and in doing so, maybe uh make sure of that and all of the normal life of people use easy. you don't see that really um, but what i can say is that be the military junk is, has some kind of popularity because they have been working to on june the of the nearly legacy. and that this is very popular to our french, not only in my lead, and that's been great, but with the french army that's been very popular in order countries lack income.

why? yeah, way i know the color scheme estimate quick the how to defend and the fact that in the new constitution, he seeing that trend french is no longer a new building, which business, colonial lake is saying is a working language. but pretty cool with that. but the point is, uh do, do we e x, do we accept? uh, governments which i know the elected the trafficking uh withdraw random's and, and we owe that. i'm not even sure that actual pointy will do elections. it is really very, hey, i'm deep, i'm sorry, what i'm sorry to interrupt you. i want to ask fall to my question. you heard alex felt him a few minutes ago. talked about the fact that molly is called on to you in to withdraw its peacekeeping mission from the country without delay. how much does all this complicate the situation on the ground? i mean, so far, total weeks now or even say for a month. uh, we have to put this under the seat of the young people asking for the dispatch of

them and it's not so that's not something new because they have been always a critic under monday's also. mean he's my in my lead that he does not reflect, can do the already in the concrete so days. no, just to keep. so why would you be having it? because we came though it is keeping me turn into concrete. so i, i'm hoping that this picks that i would like to drop how to get into the un won't be accident reports, unity for us to actually discuss on the mondays with them. and it's not, cannot leave completely. but it's very important for them to actually see how they're going to adjust the day monday to do the on any of the local situation. but my only worried and what are, you know, a lot of other people use this sub position on the back of the nation, which is the different elements barks because we have a lot of us for funding. you entered this week in the nation in going and some of the leading off to you writing about my people that are going to go out of job. so

it really has planned for those people because when you have a youth out of jobs, that as we did a lot of really to be able to get that by i'm by the attorneys. so we would need the water. he's like, he's been caught in the government lift gate or the economy come crisis would take on all those of you who are going to be out of jo when we use my leave. so so, so that's the main concern, the development of parks, dissemination part of the nation. that's my how would the current government be able to fit in to the economy which is already weak, but they put in the chinese supporting i'll tell you the departure of the meetings and i meet some cities have been in. ready science for a long time, alex i saw you are reacting to something would fall to me. i was saying there looks like i want to jump in. i think this is a. yeah, this is a really and. busy and point, i mean i know some has been operational since 2000 and. busy 13, and it's a major employee and source of investment into, into, in, into molly. and so it's,

it's withdrawal, as you've just heard, is going to be very disruptive. so it is important that the un continues to have a mandate for like piece support and development. the, the, the, the municipal mandate as a peacekeeping operation has failed. now it does need to go, but that needs to be something that continues. and actually my know, smyrna and algeria were really influential, important and, and, and pushing full this product roadmap. we have a referendum the so that good offices have had a role the you and special representative based and in and by my po. and i'll go see one made that point yesterday in the un security council, for example, alex, i also want to ask you about this potential timeline for elections. and the expectation is that when elections happen, it would probably be in 2024. do you think that's realistic?

such a good question and slip the security such your issue in, in, in, in large parts of molly is very of, uh, you know, it is very volatile, alarming. there was some areas very difficult to pull off and election. there are local political compromises, for example, right? and you know, in the north of the country around kiddo that we're, you know, to are at groups at the moment. and you've also got radical islamic groups, that of a, you know, kind of profiting outs of some of the security vacuums. so i could see the calendar of elections being delayed because of in security and the russian investments into security. the wagner crew having provided security guarantees which the, which the jump to has set that, that, that, that they are doing. so this is problematic. it's, uh, but it is really important that there is some sort of an election as part of this process. but how that's going to be inclusive and difficult security situations

is you know, i have no clear answer to that. morero's a what, what do you think when it comes to the prospect of elections, do you think that this timeline can be adhered to? and i think that the prospect of a prospect of elections can, is even feasible when it comes to all the, all the tensions, the political and societal, all security challenges. and molly, but you know, i would say the background think is that trust time. uh, they may need to jump to have to be a timeline when they will, retreat and the fellow basic 5 years they want to buy his transition, which is in regular electron finally elected a regime elected president. so it shows that they don't want to be back in the being, you know, discussing we've, we've got a glass on that and going back and forth towards months, 18 months now 20. so when they least not something that they want to do,

they don't want to leave. so i just wanted to say something about them and this month and the appropriate on that. um the, the, the current regime, the junk immediately jumped. what they've been doing is to, as we use the political space of money, you know, when you decide to out of the french, many different kind of the same that especially africans. but uh and uh, you decide to disrupt your relations with your neighbors. we've a cost, so we've decided that and you know, going to to you and, and i think starting the president of yeah, nice, nice. yeah. seeing a basically mean basically that he's not from these. yeah. because he's like scheme, those kind of things. and now, you know, expanding or new, you know, we had a lot of, uh, a phone. uh, i would say pop most embody, will be leaving now. and the new smiley one them to leave. i mean,

i don't thing is the very good thing for money to be in desoto to isolate ashton, a 8, why all the people to try to extend that partnership, you only to buy from in russia and you don't each you, you, you, you just ask what is a plan, what is the largest picture for that where you're going to expanding, expanding, chasing people h a o, you know the meeting, everything. so what, what degree did the, the way i don't use it, we problem now also, and then i think is the really going over the job, the transition, the scandals move student should be best to an elected go father. my, we don't have a whole lot of time left, but i want to ask you about one particular aspect when it comes to all this many molly and won't be able to take part in the vote because there's large parts of the country that are in the hands of arm groups linked to outside and i so how does that impact all this?

so yeah, that's why i from the beginning i always feel like going towards the election right away is not the solution. if we look, i did what minus since the independence today we had type of side included tasks and each, each quoted cause we have been covering the same way of solving the problems, a glass international community. put something on the concrete force as well and organize the election. we don't really solving the real close of the problem, which is the is security and which is the like the fact that the money on the government does not have the control of our territory at home. so if i try to push down again to go to the election, we don't really solve investigating issues. we will not have another who did. so i would say in another 3 years in a matter of 4 years or even 5 years again. so i think that before even going to organize a lesson is very, very important to come out with concrete security incline on how to save control over the uh, it's a tell you of the country. otherwise,

we'll go to the electronic business days and i can guarantee you that the electron will happen, manage, and will have speeds, will be delayed in a month or 2 month. but the next on will happen. mm hm. and we might have an elected president, it will be a former president or it's going to be a civilians. but it's not a guarantee for a long lasting democracy because we haven't really solved the real cause of the problem, which is the, the, the security situation and the fact that we don't have the control of our to retreat. and they still a lack of who governments in the industry that we are in the country. all right, well we have run out of times. we're gonna have to leave our conversation there. thanks so much. all of our guess fall to my lunch son, alex wines and marie roget below. and thank you too for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website. obviously we're com and for further discussion go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash age and side story. you can also, during the conversation on twitter or handle is at the age of inside stores from

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