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hello and welcome to the program. i'm for the back to bill is being seen as an unprecedented crisis and uprising against russian president vladimir 14 biased former online now head of the 5 member scenary group. if any precaution is set for life next sign in bella roost after agreeing to end the mutiny. so what we're putting do next. how will the rebellion against his will affect his image worldwide? and will it change the war in ukraine? will put those questions and more to our guests in just a few moments. but for us, this report by me had a baby on how the fast moving events in russia and folded what started as a war of words, swiftly turned into action. for years, the leader of the wagner mercenary group had kept a low profile, only acknowledging his forces existence. last september. sitting recent

a stat change dramatically. you have given you precaution once known as putting the check for his catering activities. granted, under the russian president, conducted a brief about noon against the russian military on friday. obviously put in his create precaution, regardless of a self made man. he spoke most projects to create a sort of a competitive alternative military for assuming usher to boost the effectiveness of the regular russian army view. it precaution, released a vigil, stepping up his feud with rushes, military leaders and open the rejecting routines. main justification for the invading ukraine. in the early hours of such a day precautions sent his forces to cross the border into south and russia from ukraine. precaution called a march for justice and said his troops had been able to enter the rest of them, done completely unopposed, while sending 5 new convoys towards moscow. publishers go to the number i see in an

address to the nation president flooding you, putting colder actions treason. i'm filed to crush what he called in on things direction that should give you much and that will we will protect our people in our state hood from any threats including internal be trail and what we're facing is betrayal. exorbitant ambitions and personal interests led to treason, russian military, helicopters, detective, wagner, comb, void. that was half way to moscow. the kremlin and those bellows had struck a do with pre collision who degree to de escalate. the situation. provide numerous interviews were promised. i'm s t if they surrender the weapons and peoples, you know, he's new to been pulled back from the mountain most cool. lots a very far as we go through, within 200 kilometers of most go in this time we did not spill a single drop of off fight as blood. now the moment has come,

when blood could be spilt, understanding the responsibility that russian blood will be spilled on one side. we are tending our columns around, i'm going back to field camps as plant was ukrainian president flow de mercer lensky says, russia's weaknesses all of us, cautioning that the longer most school keeps its troops in ukraine. the more k your it divides back home. that's led many to question the strength of pretends group on power. and you hit l a. b, d for insight story. the last spring in august. now for today's inside story in moscow is 2nd, michael's director of the institute of political studies in moscow. his a former public spokesman for present 14 and a former russian m. p. in washington dc is katrina doxey, associate director for the transactional threats project at the center for strategic and international studies. and in birmingham in the u. k. stefan wolf,

professor of international security at the university of birmingham and co founder of the pod cast, navigating the vortex dot com one. welcome to all 3 of you. thank you so much for joining us on inside story. so give me a call, let me start. we do, there's so many moving parts to this story so much to on cover. i want to ask you 1st about the situation in russia. is it back to business as usual for the kremlin is present, put in front of main control as a whole? uh, of course uh, a sufficient now quite, quite rodney google funding call us, which is why as a say and then the people uh, if you uh, twice counseling about um, now, um, but uh, not a certain time or the distance is it is this was a bit it'd be plenty to go. crisis is means that the russian government suspicious specifically emitted to the zone sufficient or far uh mm. of

dysfunction. mm hm. find a cause, a fee for the month for on the president. uh uh, to uh, to make a security falls as before. uh more than the most of them now. okay. and uh, also i, you, me to put you on. uh we'll have to see and she is uh, what was see, because i wanna know is that may i resolve posters both say and it was the reason the why people. so once you it's police are all sudden distributed too much. now as a temple is the, which is a cool use that not to submit it your for sure. so i guess so, and very big political crisis you say, so i get sorry stump and you say a very big political crisis has it. we can present pull to it's not we can to wait a minute, we don't have too much. it's, uh, it's usually better estimate the by all the rest of the society. but what's on my sense of not because the suppression shows that i didn't put your book about it.

yeah, i'm was 80 percent and all these groups all got on those deputies. i went and bought it and bought the well uh buckles. i was directed to a position as a sub for the white unit, which is the massage to finish. but it's not so witness for policy. it's a more reflection, full as a direction that was a country use of word and probably arrest. okay, cause you what happens is you is it just gets resolved and probably you will have to change its policy and such as monday to do once your was okay. i will ask you about the direction the country is likely to take next after this prices. but i want to come to katrina doxy 1st in washington dc to get your thoughts, katrina about how this all unfolded, and also the fact that the ukrainians and many others in fact have been very skeptical about how this all unfolded. a senior ukrainian official was asked about

this about the russians fighting among themselves and he said, it's too good to be true. was this really an attempted coup as most coolest framed it? it's honest the, it's a very strange and confused, a confusing situation that we're still trying to power. so it appears that while this was very clearly a just more or less unprecedented strength against hooton's power, the, all of his vulnerabilities were clearly on display promotion. was careful to be clear, stating that his aims were to target the ministry of defense. mm hm. specifically showing you in gras small because of the perceived injustices against wagner. and really tied back we assume to the deadline that the ministry of defense has set of july. first, for all, wagner troops to sign contracts with the m. o. d. n c's to be an independent entity

. that's something that goes too far for, for goes into accept. and so while the events that have unfolded over the past couple of days has certainly highlighted the weakness of the russian state. he was still clear to frame it more as a mutiny against the military man as a director to and i think that that is what gave him, at least the plausibility to come to the relatively gentle terms of the agreement that we see between production and pro and that said, i think this was still a very serious security situation that got out of hand, and it's highlighted a number of vulnerabilities of the russians. they both are broad. why, why did per goshen? i know, you know, you've researched it the 5 missionary group extensively. why did the pre goshen back down in the end? he wanted the defense minister out, which hasn't happened yet. so what did he get in exchange or think, besides, of course, the, the fact that he won't be criminally pursued,

i think the motivation for production was the preservation of wagner as its own entity and not being subsumed by the state that they really, i think a lot of this animosity between for goes in and the ministry of defense has centered around your brain. it's centered around various accusations, the suffering that wagner has experienced in and around buckner. and ultimately though, the finger at the movie is done across prisons line was insisting that all members of wagner assigned a visual contracts with the state no later than july 1st. and so ultimately the became at high cost promotion really the a bit of what you wanted in that he and sort of his core wagner troops are under no obligation to sign with the russian state to be taking the offer to the ministry.

right. wagner is the fight, is of course have been offered contracts to join the russian military. we'll get to that in just one. but, but i want to bring stephen into the conversation before we talk about steven, what happens next? what are your thoughts about how this whole unfold? did you assessment the fact that there's so many theories out there as to what rent went down? really the speed at which it unfolded? quite incredible. what is your assessment as to what happens and what happens next? well, i think, as you just said, i mean, it's very difficult to really make a lot of sense of the quite confusing and conflicting information and it's all done in the public domain at the moment. i mean, what i would say, 1st of all, is that it's unlikely that this was simply uh, espn channels. we action by colors and to the alleged tech on sci fi, depression, minutes, okay. been a been vocal about his opposition to the russian military for months. now we somewhat saw this coming perhaps not at the speed that it did. yeah, absolutely,

it's 3 up. so do you, right? i mean these are on conflicts really between promotion on the one hand and are cycle and crossing most of them the other. they go back to at least uh, last uh, walton. uh, early august you know, uh, in the context of the best offer on last month. so i'm show promotion has various contingency plans in place and already the fact that you manage to move. so it's 50 and a project is forces also fall into the wash and hold on. i mean, nancy came to about 200 kilometers funded in 25 miles. was in most co mean that requires preparation lot, at least in terms of having to fuel available uh to get all those material there. so i think that most of all the plans and then by the electric field store most for be just or because you're needed to, to execute stefan it's over for now, but it's a crisis itself really over. oh no,

absolutely not. because somebody knows one of your other speakers i've said, i mean dallas, i'm very deep. copeland's douglas shaw has been facing for some find that has been exposed to excessive, painted by it as almost with a war against ukraine. and i think that is not being resolved by the fact that progression now isn't x out and uh, in the rooms. i think there are a lot of even just talking power. those who put a drawer where the rules are just that this is not over and this is really something that the crumbling really have to worry about for quite some time. second, my call is uh, if any precautions safe in bella russo anywhere else in the world for that matter. i've seen cause that to get if it was on the ac. uh, because uh, what do you mean if we can uh use it. it is strong cuz they bought a, she is a pharmacist, but you're pointing to your married a man, but i missed that was the full amount. but i mean that sofa is that i is that uh,

let me see here. we've been on target and she was knows if i get um, was there a year before? uh is it is the id for or the tax that came in by jones and uh same as inquiry as a precaution. uh well, you wanna put in promise. i still will be in securities here, and of course i will be is there a certain time? i've seen people who will not come to a large group at least in the big amount. okay. i'm not going to be close to a stay in the last time, but i guess a little different because this guys show that the to be in the band on school file . not fire has made it to the accompanist would be very dentist on. is that why is this why you gotta know which in those are always the which key quite a few weeks before about unification. and the more i disagree and those 5 as groups

will be continuing and the room, ruby develop that and that as a result, ball going to go will be more subordinate. that was a defense ministry or exceeds the exclusion, probably e 5, not the board or want to talk about and they're going to announce that concert as life goes on was those are after they come, concert is asian counselors. she is now very well known as a uh, the best price admitted to their groups. and so was she couldn't get the concepts. what was that? does on different governments and globally. okay, well let's take a closer look at the wagner group. and the private power military force was established in 2014 by of denny for goshen. after russia antics crimea has been one of russia's main military forces in ukraine, recruiting prisoners in russia to fight in return for their freedom. a face revived . it has many sources of for an income, including from natural resources such as gold and oil. the group is active

elsewhere as they just mentioned, including parts of the middle east, like syria and libya. and so don and latin america as well as africa in countries like monte volcano fossil and the central african republic. katrina doxey. let me come to you. do you share, say, gaze views at 1st of all, you have guinea prank precaution is safe and that wagner is in his current form can not continue with you. have any precaution edits. how and i think that walter goes and may be safe. in the immediate short term, simply because reaching an agreement with a force that's 200 kilometers from moscow. and then using covert measures to have them assassinated immediately afterward, is not a show of strength. i have more doubts about his safety and more of the medium to long term, especially if this conflict between him and the crumbling continues,

which i expect to start it well. and i think part of that continuing conflict will center on the future of the blog. no group. so even though wagner has been a huge part of moscow's efforts in ukraine, really the center of the wagner empire, all of its different connected shell companies, including those that exploit natural resources. all of that has really been centered in africa, particularly the sub saharan african countries, such as d a r, molly sudan, where wagner is able to provide security and paramilitary services to local regimes and exchange for various geo political goals that moscow has. as well as economic games both for the group itself, but also coming back to others and mosque. how particularly being able to what the impact of some of the western sanctions that have been levied against russia in the

week of their latest invasion of ukraine. and so i, i agree that causes russia doesn't see promotion continuing to leave the wagner group as it is currently. i don't think they see that as an option. however, i think that for goes ends. primary goal will be trying to shore up his business empire as much as possible. and so while the direct clash over russia, i think is over, i think that the uh, the conflict or competition or who controls wagner moving forward, has only just begun. okay, stuff on your thoughts about this, the future of 5. now can it continue without you have any precaution as its leader and what consequences for these various crises and conflicts that wagner has been involved in? so don, for example, where malicious supported by wagner is fighting the regular army, new york city. why didn't, i mean, is really not just just printed very well. i mean,

it's really difficult to see how that comes in with the law of his business to imply on to on basically be sacrificed and they all talk face failed on such as, you know, so, i mean, all right, i see true true public and the dimensions was the 1st one is on that, i mean, bulk of was clearly an instrument of partials form that was, you know, given vote is going on. now that's probably most of the baltimore nursing areas to remain in a rush of them. have to sign contracts with d m o d and all the time. how many of them do you think will choose to sign a contract with the russian military or with a majority to be loyal to to for goshen. i can absolutely not tell you. i couldn't even tell you by the $25000.00 of precaution um, mobilized for the insurance and searching. see over the last uh, 2 days that goes on everything that you called and he has under his, um,

come on. uh, but i also don't think they should get too much on sort of tied up with the, the actual numbers it small sort of days, long term strategy that's for sports in, in for college and might have in mind. and i think one of the key dangerous, obviously is that, um, sort of a bargain or whatever off precaution retains control over the next a transform itself into some kind of longstanding warranty. international most of force on page obviously has no choice of any kind, was suspended for international shipping. the chain rule switching provides find a thing like that. and then you throw that into the valuable atomics that the seat and the number of those countries in sub saharan africa that jeff already mentioned . but actually countries in asia and maybe even less than america. i mean that really does not fully devolve for stability. and so the logic broader to practical sense and instruction,

and i'll ask you about the impact on the war in ukraine in just a moment. because as we've heard, wagner was really instrumental in russia taking back back back mode, for example, in the east. but i want it to come to say and ask yesterday about the long term strategy for present to team here. now, you, you know him, you've worked with him. what is he thinking right now as to what to do next? after this crisis has been confronted with, uh, just what the, what uh, just one, what about the box and uh, just to declare, to be great. i think, uh, we will have to walk another groups now. one of our medical. uh, which is hard to think now we agree will be somebody done last. so the best meals today of keeping cuz a glory ends is there a name zap less. how about to be independent from pay goes on and that's about negligible bitch created in you. why the, for, i think was on is using cars use it as sources which still walk in the opposite car

and then asia, it will be was because because a new business global project that was really set by a, you're getting a better going to sort through be to in fact, so i'm going to go with some of the sage on the last 2 like 2 minutes, which i'm, uh, i think, uh, it's like, you know, ease uh no difficulty at all by some kind of existence or crisis. because uh yeah, the stand is that as a huge both why don't use i'll pull up brands. how's it put? sure. uh we use uh, almost uh, 1000 minutes. it, it'd be high goal speech. it was bought that was up for caught on salt lake region, almost. com through the moscow. and they think that to look up our ha, i must come i. so let's see to my flight is the sub d h. ok. it's not what i should do, not use of these good inc. around there is an excuse me to kind of some change. so

how are we going to see and overall of the defense ministry and in the military you think and uh, i, i think uh, it should be a big chaise, not on the wheels, the transmitted a bunch. and that it was, this was in your crate. so, you know, and things that are being praised. so it was a choice. and he's a to stop this war by accepting america you months, or to use very top whooping area to read this war and can do missions. this was yes, it's not acceptable. okay, let me ask katrina doxey about this. i say he says he expects a change in the war in ukraine and promotion. made a public statement. this did not seeing the anti war in ukraine on saturday, and it's fundamental pretext as a lie. he said, how could this change the overall dynamics of a conflict in ukraine? now, i think the really looking at for goes in statements,

looking at the way his presence has. persona has been received by the russian people. this is a monumental moment uh, facing the russian state because what he was saying, it wasn't just his usual criticism of the ministry of defense. he really unpacked, criticized and took down the rationality and has put forward to justify the war in the 1st place. rush as a country where the media is very tightly controlled and very closely guards the narratives on both domestic and international policy that are portrayed domestically that are basically forced upon the people. and now you have a credible figure, an inside or who's been involved in the war effort coming out and just taking a per the entire rational for the war. okay. country that is all the exhausted with

it and looking at the rates failures that is a huge blow to most cows possessions. define what will be the immediate effects on the war. and ukraine in your long term are both short term. i think that is already a clear sense of disappointment on the crate inside the chaos in motion to continue for some time between then obviously it has created a much, oh, strong line, most of kind of taken over to the to form ukraine to really make some type of a and then con, condo offensive. and i think in the longer term for me about the events in russia over the past on 2 or 3 days on indicate on it's very clear that it's not becoming even more obvious that this is a role of that portage and can often and i think the also have significantly increase that you find will actually be able to achieve call of x, y, and so that's on the battlefield was so a much improved negotiation position. should it ever come to 2 talks between camp

most go directly. the stuff on foreign policy had an interesting piece out which said that this mutiny is the beginning of poor teens. and do you share that view? i think at the moment it's a whole lot of speculation and you mean by the, the 1st i've been that i've participated in this respect connection and i think it's really difficult to forecast on even over the next 12 months to 6 months. the, you know, beyond that was executive, this will mean for all shotwell physically meaningful depaulo structures in the crime and ok. so if they come out and confirmed that phone and a very close. so can office advisors actually exercise location? second, michael, i'll give you the last word. what does this mean for russia and it's standing on the international stage? what does the future look like? if you're sure you're gonna career being because there is

a cover of the printer to assess center about what that's for sure as a cadet and we'll have to change its policy because uh, is useful us here is a, create a to be a problem. but what, what specific would be change? we still don't know yet. and uh, uh, a lot of people in the class i believe is that which are in the, for the not school or in russia. bucksta was in the restaurant. and we can sort stop special media to the patient is stage sent me a roar, bottom the 301 and your browser will be what should be okay, we'll leave it there. thank you so much. shit. a lot of questions. obviously that needs to be answered, but i thank you for helping us shed light on some of the immediate ones taking my call, stefan wolf, katrina doc. see, thank you all for joining us and thank you as well for watching. you can always watches program again,

any time by visiting our website that on to 0 dot com for further discussion. go to our facebook page, has facebook dot com forward slash a inside story. of course you can join the conversation on twitter handle. is that a j inside story from me for the back to burn the whole team here and go hi, thanks watching bye for now the the no drug dealing subject to place is beyond the reach of the many people, you know,

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