listening to the people behind the news and to the journalist for reporting their stories. it's that intimacy that makes every international story local at heart. i'm only give you that host of the take a daily news podcast powered by the login reporting of algebra. find us where ever you get your pod cast. an unprecedented change to vladimir putin scraped on tower rushes. bob and the mess navigate, threatens an armed rebellion by full size is the twice, is really over. how will it affect some more, a new crane? and what's the future for wagner? this is inside story, the hello and welcome to the program. i'm 40 back to bill is being seen as an

unprecedented crisis and uprising against russian president vladimir 14 biased former online. now head of the wagner met scenary group. if any precaution is set for life you next on in, bella, rou, sasha, agreeing to end the mutiny. so what we're putting do next, how will the rebellion against is, will affect his image worldwide? and would it change of war in ukraine? would put those questions and more to our guess in just a few moments. but for us, this report by me had a baby on how the fast moving events in russia unfolded what started as a war of words, swiftly turned into action. for years, the leader of the wagner mercenary group had kept a low profile, only acknowledging his forces existence last september. treating recent days that changed dramatically. you have given you because in once known as putting chef for his catering activities, grunted under the russian president, conducted

a briefer belding and against the russian military on friday. obviously, clinton has created precaution, regardless of a self made man. he is putting this project to create a sort of a competitive alternative military for assuming i should to boost the effectiveness of the regular russian army. somebody's buick. a precaution released the vigil, stepping up his feud with rushes, military leaders and open the rejecting routines. main justification for the invading ukraine. in the early hours of set to day precautions sent his forces to cross the border into south and russia from ukraine, pre causing cold a march for justice and said his troops had been able to enter the rest of them, done completely unopposed while sending 5 new convoys towards moscow, somebody shares, gosh, the number i see in an address to the nation president flooding you, putting colder actions treason filed to crush what he called in on the interaction

. should you election that will, we will protect our people in our state hood from any threats including internal be trail and what we're facing is betrayal. exorbitant ambitions and personal interest led to treason. russian military helicopters, a tech to wagner comb void that was hopefully to muscle. the kremlin then in those bellows had struck a do with precaution, with degree to de escalate. the situation provide numerous interviews were promised . i'm s t if they surrender their weapons and pre collision, and he's 5 new troops been pulled back from the mountain most cool. lots a very far as we go through, within 200 kilometers of most go in this time we did not spill a single drop of off fight as blood. now the moment has come, when blood could be spilt, understanding the responsibility, the russian blood will be spilled on one side. we are turning all columns around. i'm going back to field camps as plant each ukrainian president,

florida mercer lensky says, russia's weaknesses all of us, cautioning that the longer most school keeps its troops in ukraine. the more k your invites back home. that's led many to question the strength of pretense group on power. you had a bd for insights story. the last spring in august now for today's inside story in moscow is 2nd, michael's director of the institute of political studies in moscow. his a former public spokesman for present 14 and a former russian m. p. in washington dc is katrina doxey, associate director for the transactional threats project at the center for strategic and international studies. and in birmingham in the u. k. stefan wolf, professor of international security at the university of birmingham and co founder of the pod cast, navigating the gold tex, dot com, a warm welcome to all 3 of you. thank you so much for joining us on inside story.

so give me a call, let me start. we do. there's so many moving parts to the story so much to on cover . i wanna ask you 1st about the situation in russia, is it back to business? as usual for the kremlin is present, put in front of main control as a whole. uh, of course, uh, a suspicion now quite, quite rodney google funding call us, which is why as a say, understand the people uh, if you uh, quite comfortable. now. um, but uh, not a certain time for them to send as it is, this was a bit of a big financial crisis is means that a russian government suspicious specifically made it to the zone sufficient or flash uh mm. of dysfunction. mm hm. find a cause, a default of the month for on the president. uh uh to uh,

to make uh a security deposit as people uh, more time from now. okay. and also i, you, me to put you on. uh, we'll have to see, i see is policy. because one of them may i resolve posters policy and that was the reason the why people. so once you, it's political, a sudden disability month. now as a temple is a bitch, is that cool? is that not submitted to for? sure. so it gets to a very big political crisis, you say, so i get, sorry, something you say a very big political crisis has it weakens present to. it's not that we're going to wait a minute. we don't have too much. it's uh, it's usually a better estimate, but the, by all the rest of the society by which i'm not. so i'm not because special shows are going to put your body to more than 80 percent. and all these groups all got on those deputies. i went and bought it and bought the well, uh, but it was,

i was directed to a physician as a soft worldwide unit, which is the massage to finish. but it's not so weakness, football. it's, it's, it's more than flexion full as the direction that was a country. use a board and probably arrest. okay, cause you who happen as soon as it gets resolved and probably you will have to change each policy and such as monday to do once your once. okay, i will ask you about the direction the country is likely to take next after this crisis. but i want to come to katrina doxey 1st in washington dc to get your thoughts, katrina about how this all on folded and also the fact that the ukrainians and many others in fact have been very skeptical about how this all and folded a senior ukrainian official was asked about this, about the russians fighting among themselves, and he said it's too good to be true. was this really an attempted cool west most coolest framed it? it's honestly, it's

a very strange and confusion confusing situation that we're still trying to pers out. it appears that a while this was very clearly a just more or less unprecedented strength against put in power the all of his vulnerabilities were clearly on display provision was careful to be clear, stating that his aims were to target the ministry of defense. specifically, shall i go in gras small because of the perceived injustices against wagner. and really tied back we assume to the deadline that the ministry of defense a set of july. first for all, wagner troops to sign contracts with the m o. d and ceased to be an independent entity. that's something that goes too far for, for goes in to accept. and so while the events that have unfolded over the past couple of days have certainly highlighted the weakness of the russian state. he was

still clear to frame it more as a mutiny against the military man as a director to and i think that that is what gave him at least applause ability to come to the relatively gentle terms of the agreement that we see between production and pro and that said, i think this was still a very serious security situation that got out of hand, and it's highlighted a number of vulnerabilities of the russians. they both are on why, why did per goshen. i. i know, you know, you've researched it the fact imaginary group extensively. why did the pre goshen back down in the end? he wanted the defense minister out, which hasn't happened yet. so what did he get in exchange of things besides of course, the, the fact that he won't be permanently pursued. i think the motivation for production was the preservation of wagner as its own entity and not being subsumed

by the state. they really, i think a lot of this animosity between for goes and, and the ministry of defense has centered around your brain. it's centered around various accusations, the suffering that wagner has experienced in and around buckler. and the ultimately though, the fingerprint moody is done across regions line was insisting that all members of wagner assigned a visual contracts with the state no later than july 1st. and so ultimately the became at high cost promotion really the a bit of what you wanted in that he and sort of his core wagner troops are under no obligation to sign with the russian state to be taking the offer to the ministry. right. wagner's fight is, of course, have been offered contracts to join the russian military. we'll get to that in just one. but, but i want to bring stephen into the conversation before we talk about steven,

what happens next? what are your thoughts about how this all unfold? did you assessment the fact that there's so many theories out there as to what rent went down really the speed at which it unfolded? quite incredible. what is your assessment as to what happens and what happens next? well, i think, as you just said, i mean, it's very difficult to really make a lot of sense of the quite confusing and conflicting information and it's all done in the public domain at the moment. i mean, what i would say 1st of all, is that it's unlikely that this was simply uh, espn channels. we action via colors and to the alleged tech on else like, uh, like, depression, minutes. okay. been a been vocal about his opposition to the russian military for months. now we somewhat saw this coming perhaps not at the speed that it did. absolutely, it's 3 up. so do you, right? i mean, these are on conflicts really between promotion on the one hand and are cycle and crossing multiple in the other. they go back to at least uh, last uh, walton, uh,

early august you know, uh in the context of the bundle of off months. so i'm show promotion has various contingency plans in place and already the fact that you manage to move. so it's 50 and a project as far as also fall into the wash and whole thing. i mean, the nancy came to our 200 kilometers funded in 25 miles was in most of mean that requires preparation lot, at least in terms of having the fuel available uh to get all those material there. so i think that most of the plans and by the alleged hailstorm, most of for be just or because you need to on to execute stefan it's over for now, but it's a crisis itself really over. oh no, absolutely not. because somebody knows one of your other speakers, i've said, i mean dallas some very deep problems. douglas shaw has been facing folsom find

that has been removed or exposed to excessive, painted by disastrous uh, war against ukraine. and i think that is not being resolved by the fact that progression now isn't x out and in problems. i think there are a lot of even just talk a power to put a drawer where the rules are just that this is not over. and this is really something that the crumbling really have to hurry up on for quite some time. second, my call is uh, if any, pre goshen safe in bella russo anywhere else in the world for that matter. i've seen cause that to get if it was on the uh interface. uh because uh, what do you mean if we can use it? it is strong about a she is a pharmacist, but yeah, unfortunately, you are married. remember right, mr. jose, oklahoma. but i mean the sofa is what i is that uh, let me see what we've been on. so if i get m c was knows if i get more than

a year before, uh, is it s k i d for or the plus tax. i couldn't buy drones and uh, saving us inquiry as a precaution. uh well, you wanna put in promise that you will be instituted here. and there goes a little bit. is there a certain time? i've seen people who will not control a lot of a group, at least in a very big amount. okay. i'm not going to be close to a stay in the last time. but i guess a little different because this guys show that the to be in depends on school file . not fire with me, that accompanist would be very dentist on. is that why is this why you gotta know which in those policy, which he quite a few weeks before about unification and the more or disagree and tools by residents will be continuing and the room ruby develop the ends as a result. bob, i'm going to go will be most of the major was the defense minister,

or exceeds the exclusion, probably e 5, not the board on the bottom bottom. they're going to announce that concert as life goes on was those are after they come. concert is asian cancer's. she is now very well known as a uh, the best price admitted to their groups. as of all space you can get the concepts from is that does on different uh, governments and globally. okay, well let's take a closer look at the wagner group, and the private power military force was established in 2014 by you have any precaution after russia antics. crimea has been one of russia's main military forces and ukraine, recruiting prisoners in russia to fight in return for their freedom. a face survived, it has many sources of for an income, including from natural resources such as gold and oil. the group is active elsewhere, as said they just mentioned including parts of the middle east, like syria and libya. and so don and latin america as well as africa in countries

like monte volcano fossil and the central african republic. katrina doxey. let me come to you. do you share, say gave the views at 1st of all you have any pray. precaution is safe and that vive, not in his car in for uh, can not continue with. uh you have any precaution edits. how and i think that walter goes in may be safe in the immediate short term simply because reaching an agreement with a force that's 200 kilometers from moscow. and then using covert measures to have them assassinated immediately afterward, is not a show of strength. i have more doubts about his safety and more of the medium to long term, especially if this conflict between him and the crumbling continues, which i expect start at well. and i think part of that continuing conflict will center on the future of the bug, no group. so even though wagner has been

a huge part of moscow's efforts in you printing really the center of the wagner empire, all of its different connected shell companies, including those that exploit natural resources. all of that has really been centered in africa, particularly the sub saharan african countries, and such as c a r, molly sudan, where wagner is able to provide security and paramilitary services to local regimes and exchange for various geo political goals that moscow has, as well as economic games both for the group itself, but also coming back to others in moscow, particularly being able to warrant the impact of some of the western sanctions that have been levied against russia in the week of their latest invasion with ukraine. and so i, i agree that causes russia doesn't see promotion continuing to leave the wagner

group as it is. uh, currently i don't think they see that as an option. however, i think that for goes ends. primary goal will be trying to shore up his business empire as much as possible. and so while the direct clash over russia, i think is over, i think the, the, uh, the conflict or competition, or who controls wagner moving forward, has only just begun. okay, steph, on your thoughts about this? the future of 5? now, can it continue without you? have any precaution as a leader, and what consequences for these various crises and conflicts that were vag know, has been involved in insta. don, for example, where malicious supported by wagner is fighting the regular army, new york city wide, inconvenienced career, not just just printed very well. i mean, it's really difficult to see how that comes in with the law of his business and plan to on basic could be sacrificed. adults office failed on the searches,

you know, so, i mean, i see true true public and all the dimensions was the 1st one is on that, i mean box that was clearly an instrument of partials form that was, you know, given vote is going on. now that's probably most of the baltimore nursing there has to be for me in a rush of them have to sign contracts with the m o d and all the time. how many of them do you think will choose to sign a contract with the russian military or with the majority to be loyal to to for goshen? i can absolutely not tell you. i couldn't even tell you by the 25000 does precaution um, mobilized for the insurance and searching see over the last 2 days that goes on everything that you call and he has under his um, come on. uh, but i also don't think they should get too much on sort of tied up with the, the actual numbers. it's more sort of days long term strategy that supports putting

in for college and might have in mind. and i think one of the key dangers office be, is that um, sort of a bargain or whatever off precaution retains control over the next a transform itself into some kind of non st in line to international mass. one of those on page obviously has no choice of any kind, was suspended for international shipping, the chain rule switching slides or anything like that. and then you throw that into the value while a ton weeks that b, c and the number of those countries in sub saharan africa that jeff already mentioned. but actually countries in asia and maybe even less than america. i mean, that really does not fully devolve for stability. and so the logic broader to a practical sense of instruction. and i'll ask you about the impact on the war and ukraine in just a moment. because as we heard, wagner was really instrumental in russia taking back back back, moved,

for example in the east. but i wanted to come to say and ask yesterday about the long term strategy for present to the team here. now you, you know him, you've worked with him. what is he thinking right now as to what to do next after this crisis has been confronted with, uh, just what the, what i just wanted one to about uh, just was to declare to be great. i think we'll have to walk into groups. no one of our medical reaches for i think now we agree will be somebody that has to do the best meals today of keeping cause a glory ends. is there a name zap less? how about to be independent from pay goes on and that's about negligible bitch create that you want me to for my, for the goes on is using cars, use it as sources which still walk in the opposite car and then asia, then it will be was because because the new business, a global project that was really affect bye,

you're getting better going to sort through be to in fact, so i'm going to go with probably say on the last 2 like 2 minutes, which and i think uh like, you know, ease, uh no difficulty at all or some kind of existence or prices. mm hm. because uh, yeah, the stand is that as a huge both why don't use i'll pull up the brands as it put. sure. uh, we use uh, almost uh, 1000 minutes. it'd be high goal speech, it was bought that was up for cut themselves out of the region, almost come to the moscow. and they think that to look up our ha, i must come i. so let's see to my flight is the sub d h. ok. it's not what i should do, dot gives me that these good think around. there is an excuse me to kind of some change. so how are we going just going over hold of the defense ministry and in the military you think and uh, i, i think uh, it should be

a big change. not on the wheels defense minister, but jeanette was, this was in your credit to her on things that you'd be in place. so it was a choice and he's a to stop this war by accepting america. do you mind or to use video talk whooping. that is to read this or and can do missions this for the yes, it's not acceptable. okay, let me ask katrina doc see about this as a says he expects a change in the war in ukraine and for goshen. made a public statement. this did not take the entire war in ukraine on saturday, and it's fundamental pretext as a lie. he said, how could this change the overall dynamics of the conflict in ukraine? now, i think the really looking at for goes in statements, looking at the way his presence has. persona has been received by the russian people. this is a monumental moment uh,

facing the russian state because what he was saying, it wasn't just his usual criticism of the ministry of defense. he really unpacked, criticized and took down the rationality and has put forward to justify the war and the 1st place. rush as a country where the media is very tightly controlled, put in very closely guards the narratives on both domestic and international policy that are portrayed domestically that are basically forced upon the people. and now you have a credible figure and inside or who's been involved in the war effort coming out and just taking up for the entire rational for the war. ok country that is all the exhausted with it and looking at the rates failures that is a huge blow to moscow's possession. stefan what will be the immediate effects on the war and ukraine in your long term, a boat short term. i think that is already

a clear sense of disappointment on the crate insight that the chaos english want to continue for some time. between that and obviously it has um, created a much stronger and most significant opportunity for ukraine to really make some type of a, in a con condo offensive. and i think in the longer term for me about the events in brush over the past on 2 or 3 days on indicate on it's very clear that it's not becoming even more obvious that this is a role of that point and can often and i think the also have significantly increase that you find will actually be able to change all of x, y, and so that's on the battlefield balls. so a much improved negotiation position should never come to 2 talks between camp most go directly. the stuff on foreign policy had an interesting piece out which said that this mutiny is the beginning of proteins. and do you share that view?

i think at the moment it's a whole lot of speculation. and you mean by be the 1st to admit that i've participated in this respect connection? i think it's really difficult to forecast on even over the next months to 6 months. the, you know, beyond that was the executive. this will mean for all charlotte, physically meaningful depaulo structures in the crime and ok. so if they come out and confirmed that and a very close, so can office advise isn't actually exercise. ok. so give me a call. i'll give you the last word. what does this mean for russia and it's standing on the international stage? what does the future look like? if your sure iis on a career being because there is a cover of the printer to assess center about what it's for sure. as a cadet and we'll have to change the support we see because uh,

is useful. let's see. it is a create a tool based program. but what, what specific would be change? we still don't know yet. and um, a lot of people in the class i believe is that which are in the, for the not school, or in a box star in the restaurant. and we can sort stokes, special media to the patient is stage sent me a roar, bottom, the 3. 0 one and your browser will be what should be okay, we'll leave it there. thank you so much shit. a lot of questions, obviously that need to be answered, but i thank you for helping us shed light on some of the immediate ones taking my call. stefan wolf, katrina talk. see thank you all for joining us. and thank you as well for watching . you can always watch this program again any time by visiting our website at all and just see or dot com for further discussion. go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a inside story. of course you can join the conversation on twitter handle. is that

a great insight story from me for the back to board? the whole team here in doha, thanks watching bye for now. the, the the a get into the ideals, the friends who public his loan for claims. but just what is more than friends in

a full pot series, the big picture takes an in depth no. from seems focus. episode 3. how did you sierra the us a all was of interest, the people around the world. this has been going on for a number of this the price, but you see the report? 34, that's an active perspective to try to explain to global audience why it's important to impact the lives at the height of the storm. water was still high by hey, this is an important part of the world. people pay attention to this very good the bringing the news to the world from here, basically out of teams does the un fits the purpose was like many critics sites, just pump solution doesn't get anywhere near enough done to the amount of money that is put into a hard hitting into abuse. do you think that to the lines of washington enough for body to go on its own and built it's on the thoughts providing on for centuries,

people have been taken care of are. so i have every confidence that future generations will do it as well via the story on told to how does era the these, any government in the international pressure as it considers expanding illegal settlements. we occupied westbank, the hello silver almond which you know, cuz they were like my headquarters here in the hall. also coming up on the front line and ukraine rushes defense minister makes his 1st appearance since they mutiny by miss reese, who demanded his sacking. the free conservative celebrates has probably been as a carrier, goes with the buckets some and says hold them.