a for to and i've gone a starting place with poverty. unemployment has been central to global opiate production and this whole emissions of drug rounding them up. former jay, the fighter under covering products, dedicates his life, giving them hope. with this a 2nd show on a just on unprecedented chinese to vladimir proteins based on tyler rushes bought and the most navigate buttons. an armed rebellion by full size is the twice as many over how will it affects the more a new crane and what's the future for wagner? this is inside story, the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm for the back to bill is being seen as an unprecedented crisis and uprising against russian president vladimir 14 biased former ally, now head of the 5 member scenary group. if any, pre collision is set for a line, for the next sign in, bella rou, softer green to end the mutiny. so what we're putting do next. how will the rebellion against his will affect his image worldwide? and would it change of war in ukraine? we put those questions and more to our guess in just a few moments. but for us, this report by me had a baby on how the fast moving events in russia and folded what started as a war of words, swiftly turned into action. for years, the leader of the wagner mercenary group had kept a low profile, only acknowledging his forces existence last september sitting recent a,

a stat change dramatically. 2 you have given you precaution once known as putting the check for his catering activities. granted, under the russian president, conducted a brief about him against the russian military on friday. obviously putting his create precaution, regardless of a self made man. he spoke most projects to create a sort of a competitive alternative military for assuming i should to boost the effectiveness of the regular russian army. buick. pre collision released a vigil, stepping up his feud with rushes, military leaders and open the rejecting routines. main justification for the invading ukraine. in the early hours of such a day precautions sent his forces to cross the border into south and russia from ukraine, pre collision called a march for justice and said his troops had been able to enter the rest of on john completely unopposed, while sending 5 new convoys towards moscow shares, gosh,

the number i see in an address to the nation president flooding you, putting colder actions treason. i'm filed to crush what he called in on the interaction to shoot you election. that will, we will protect our people in our state hood from any threats including internal be trail and what we're facing is betrayal. exorbitant ambitions and personal interest led to treason. russian military helicopters attacked the wagner convoy that was half way to moscow. the kremlin in those bellows had struck a do with precaution, who degreed to de escalate. the situation provide new mercenaries were promised. i'm s t if they surrender their weapons and peoples, you know, he's bought a new tube, been pulled back from the mountain. most cool. lots a very far as we go through, within 200 kilometers of most go in this time we did not spill a single drop of off fight as blood. now the moment has come,

when blood could be spilt, understanding the responsibility, the rushing blood will be spilled on one side. we are turning all columns around. i'm going back to field camps as plant was ukrainian president, florida mercer lensky says, russia's weaknesses all of us cautioning that the longer most school keeps its troops in ukraine. the more k use it divides back home. that's led many to question the strength of pretends group on power. and you hit l a. b, d for insight story. the last spring in august. now for today's inside story in moscow is 2nd, michael's director of the institute of political studies in moscow. his a former public spokesman for present 14 and a former russian m. p. in washington dc is katrina doxey, associate director for the transactional threats project at the center for strategic and international studies. and in birmingham in the u. k. stefan wolf,

professor of international security at the university of birmingham and co founder of the pod cast, navigating the vortex dot com one. welcome to all 3 of you. thank you so much for joining us on inside story. so give me a call. let me start with you. there's so many moving parts to the story so much to on cover. i want to ask you 1st about the situation in russia. is it back to business as usual for the kremlin is present, put in front of main control as a whole? uh, of course, uh, a sufficient now quite, quite rodney google funding call us, which is why as a say, understand the people uh, if you uh, twice confident about, uh, no, uh, but uh, not a certain time for them to send a zip is this was a big big cottage across this is means that a russian government suspicious specifically emitted to the zone is sufficient or far from me on dysfunction. me find a cause

a few of the month rooms of president uh uh, to uh, to make a security falls as the file uh more time from now. okay. and also i, you, me to put you on. uh, we'll have to see, i see is policy. because i wanna know is that may i resolve posters, policy? and that was the reason the why people stop with you. it's political sort of distributed to month now as a tempos a, which is a cool, is that not submitted to for sure. so i guess all american political crisis you say, so i get sorry stump and you say a very big political crisis has it weakens president bush. it's not that we can to wait a minute. we don't have too much. it's uh, it's usually better estimate, but the, by all the rest of the society by which i'm upset. now because the suppression

shows that i didn't put your book about it yet. i'm more than 80 percent and all these groups all got on those differences. and i went and bought it and bought the when i bought was i was directed to a physician as a support unit, which is the situation. but it's not so weakness for policies. it's more deflection . who was the direction that was a country use of worrying probably. uh right. okay. cause you, what happens is, is it just gets resolved and probably will have to change its policy and such as mondays to do once it was okay. i will ask you about the direction the country is likely to take next after this prices, but i want to come to katrina doxey 1st in washington dc to get your thoughts, katrina about how this all unfolded and also the fact that the ukrainians and many others in fact, have been very skeptical about how this all and folded. as you know, ukrainian official was asked about this,

about the russians fighting among themselves. and he said it's too good to be true . was this really an attempted coup as most coolest framed it? it's honestly, it's a very strange and confusion confusing situation that we're still trying to pers out. it appears that a while this was very clearly a just more or less unprecedented strike against put in power the all of his vulnerabilities were clearly on display promotion was careful to be clear, stating that his aims were to target the ministry of defense, specifically chicago and ross mob, because of the perceived injustices against wagner, and really tied back we assume to the deadline that the ministry of defense has set of july. first, for all, wagner troops to sign contracts with the m o. d,

and cease to be an independent entity. that's something that goes too far for, for goes in to accept. and so while the events that have unfolded over the past couple of days have certainly highlighted the weakness of the russian state. he was still clear to frame it more as a mutiny against the military man as a director to and i think that that is what gave him, at least the plausibility to come to the relatively gentle terms of the agreement that we see between for goes into and that said, i think this was still a very serious security situation that got out of hand, and it's highlighted a number of vulnerabilities of the russians. they both are on why, why did per goshen. i, i know, you know, you've a research that the fact imaginary group extensively why did pre goshen back down in the and he wanted the defense minister out, which hasn't happened yet. so what did he get in exchange of things besides of course, the,

the fact that he won't be permanently pursued. i think the motivation for production was the preservation of wagner as its own entity and not being subsumed by the state. they really, i think a lot of this animosity between for goes and, and the ministry of defense has centered around you brain. it's centered around various accusations, the suffering that wagner has experienced in and around buckner. and ultimately though, the finger pm ideas done across regions line was insisting that all members of wagner assign official contracts with the state no later than july 1st. and so ultimately the became at high cost provision really got a bit of what he wanted in that he and sort of his core wagner troops are under no obligation to sign with the russian state to be taking the offer to the ministry.

right. wagner is the fight, is of course have been offered contracts to join the russian military. we'll get to that in just one. but, but i want to bring stephen into the conversation before we talk about steven, what happens next? what are your thoughts about how this all unfold? did you assessment the fact that there's so many theories out there as to what rent went down? really the speed at which it unfolded? quite incredible. what is your assessment as to what happens and what happens next? well, i think, as you just said, i mean, it's very difficult to really make a lot of sense of the quite confusing and conflicting information and it's all done in the public domain at the moment. i mean, what i would say 1st of all, is that it's unlikely that this was simply is functioning as we action by a precaution to the electrical tech on else like part of the question ministry. okay. been a been vocal about his opposition to the russian military for months. now we somewhat saw this coming perhaps not at the speed that it did. absolutely,

it's 3 up. so do you mind, i mean these are some conflicts really between promotion on the wrong hand and are cycle and crossing most of them. yeah. that they go back to at least uh, last uh, watching uh early uh cuz you know, uh, in the context of the bundle of months. so i'm show promotion has various contingency plans in place and already the fact that you manage to move. so it's the end of the product as far as a sofa into the wash and hold on. i mean, the nancy came to about 200 kilometers funded in 25 miles within most of mean definitely quite as preparation lot at least in terms of having the fuel available uh to get all those material there. so i think that most of all plans and by the electric field store most of for be just what because you needed to to execute stefan it's over for now, but it's a crisis itself really over. oh no,

absolutely not. because somebody knows one of your other speakers i've said, i mean dallas, i'm very deep. copeland's douglas shaw has been facing for some find that has been shown to expose that accessibility to buy it as honest with uh, war against ukraine. and i think that is not being resolved by the fact that progression now isn't x out and in problems. i think there are a lot of even just talk a power to put a drawer where the rules are just that this is not over. and this is really something that the crumbling really have to worry about for quite some time. so again, my call is uh, if any precautions facing bella russo anywhere else in the world for that matter. i've seen cause that to gain. if it goes on, you say, uh because uh, what do you mean if we can uh, use it, it is strong about what she is premises, but you're pointing to your married, remember promise that was in for my mind. but i mean that sofa is that i that the

lady museums here, we've been on target. and she was knows, if i get more than a year before, is it is the id for or the plus tax that came in by jobs and saying i was inquiry as a precaution. ah, well, you were to put in promise us, you will be instituted here. and of course i will be inside your same time. i've seen 3 boys on. we will not consort. will lot of a girl at least in the big car in mount. okay. i'm not going to be close to a stay in the last time, but i guess a little different because this guys show that to be in the band on school file, not fire me, digit accompanist, would be very dentist on. is that why is this uh, why you gotta know which in those policy, which he uh, quite a few weeks before about unification and the more, well i disagree and those prior groups will be continuing and the room,

ruby develop that and that as a result, it's about going to go will be most of the nature of was a defense ministry, or is it exceeds the exclusion? probably, if not, they bought one take part of it and they're going to announce that confidence, like, for example, those are after the concert is asian cancer's. he is now very well known as a uh, the best price admitted to the groups and that was based you can get the concepts from was a dozen different and governments and globally. okay, well let's take a closer look at the fact in a group of the private power military force was established in 2014 by. you have danny, for goshen after russia onyx crimea. it's been one of russia's main military forces in ukraine, recruiting prisoners in russia to fight in return for their freedom. a face revived . it has many sources of for an income, including from natural resources such as gold and oil. the group is active

elsewhere as they just mentioned, including parts of the middle east, like syria and libya. and so don and latin america as well as africa in countries like monte volcano fossil and the central african republic. katrina talk see, let me come to you. do you share say, gave the views at 1st of all you have guinea pray. precaution is safe and that vibe not is in his car in for uh can not continue with. uh you have got any precaution edits. how and i think that walter goes in may be safe in the immediate short term simply because reaching an agreement with a force that's 200 kilometers from moscow. and then using covert measures to have them assassinated immediately afterward, is not a show of strength. i have more doubts about his safety and more of the medium to long term, especially if this conflict between him and the crumbling continues,

which i expect start at well. and i think part of that continuing conflict will center on the future of the blog. no group. so even though wagner has been a huge part of moscow's efforts in ukraine, really the center of the wagner empire, all of its different connected shell companies, including those that exploit natural resources. all of that has really been centered in africa, particularly the sub saharan african countries, such as c, a r, molly sudan, where wagner is able to provide security and paramilitary services to local regimes and exchange for various geo political goals that moscow has. as well as economic games both for the group itself, but also coming back to others and mosque, how particularly being able to warrant the impact of some of the western sanctions that have been levied against russia in the week of their latest invasion with

ukraine. and so i, i agree that causes russia doesn't see promotion continuing to leave the wagner group as it is currently. i don't think they see that as an option. however, i think that for goes ends. primary goal will be trying to shore up his business empire as much as possible. and so while the direct clash over russia, i think is over, i think that the uh, the conflict or competition or who controls wagner moving forward, has only just begun. okay, stuff on your thoughts about this, the future of 5. now can it continue without you have any precaution as a leader and what consequences for these various crises and conflicts that wagner has been involved in? so don, for example, where a militia supported by wagner is fighting the regular army, new york city. why didn't i mean this career not just just printed very well. i

mean, it's really difficult to see how that comes in with the law of his business to imply on to on patient can be sacrificed adult office failed on the searches. you know, so, i mean, i see true true public and the dimensions was the 1st one is on that, i mean, bulk of was clearly an instrument of partials form that was, you know, given vote is going on. now that's probably most of the baltimore nursing areas that will remain in a rush of them, have to sign contracts with the m o d and all the time. how many of them do you think will choose to sign a contract with the russian military or with the majority to be loyal to to for goshen. so i can pop soon as the not tells you. i couldn't even tell you by the vent 25000 does precaution um, mobilized for the insurance and searching. see over the last uh, 2 days. and that goes on everything that you called and he has uh, under his um,

come on off, but i also don't think they should get too much on sort of tied up with the, the actual numbers. it's small, it's sort of days long term strategy that's for sports in, in for goes in might have in, in mind. and i think one of the key dangers obviously is that, um, sort of a bargain or whatever off the goes and retains control over the next a transform itself into some kind of long standing on an international mass. more falls on the job. and she has no choice of any kind, was suspended for international shipping. the chain rule switching provides, find a thing like that. and then you throw that into the valuable atomics that b, c. and a number of those are countries in sub saharan africa that jeff already mentioned, but actually countries in asia and maybe even less than america. i mean, doug really does not fully devolve for stability and sort of uh, logic, broader to a practical sense from instruction. and i'll ask you about the impact on the war in

ukraine in just a moment. because as we've heard, wagner was really instrumental in russia taking back back back, moved, for example in the east. but i want it to come to say and ask you so great about the long term strategy for present to the team here. now you, you know him, you've worked with him. what is he thinking right now as to what to do next after this crisis is being confronted with? uh just what, what, what uh, just one, what about uh, just was to declare before i think we'll have to walk into groups. no one on the bottom that a group beach is part of think now we agree and will be sort of done i. so these are best meals today of keeping cuz a glory ends is there a name is f less about to be independent from k goes on in the negative. it would be uh, created a new one for um, i think was i'm just using cars use it as close as we still uh walk in the opposite

car and then ajax. and it will be was because because a new business uh, global project that was really uh set by uh you're getting a bit of going to sort through be in fact, so i'm going to go with probably say on the last 2 like 2 minutes, which i'm uh, i think uh, it's like, you know, ease uh no difficulty at all or some kind of existence or crisis. because the stand the stand is that as a judge or one of the use, i'll pull up brands. how's it put? sure, uh we use all most the ones thousands needed to be hired coal speech. it was part of was up for caught on salt lake region, almost come through the moscow. and they think that to look up for each must come i . so let's see, to my flight is the sub d h. ok. it's not what i should be done. okay? so the use of these good think around there is an excuse me to kind of some change

just so how are we going to see and overall of the defense ministry and in the military? you think i uh uh i, i think uh, it should be a big chaise, not on the wheels defense submitted a bunch. and that it was, this was in your credit. so you know, things that you'd be in place. so it was a choice, and he's a to stop this war by accepting cognitive on uh, do you mind or to use video talk whooping. that is to read this or, and can do missions this for the yes, it's not acceptable. okay, let me ask katrina doxey about this. i think he says he expects a change in the war in ukraine and promotion. made a public statement. this did not take the entire war in ukraine on saturday, and it's fundamental pretext as a lie. he said, how could this change the overall dynamics of a conflict in ukraine? now, i think the really looking at for goes in statements,

looking at the way his presence has. persona has been received by the russian people. this is a monumental moment uh, facing the russian state because what he was saying, it wasn't just his usual criticism of the ministry of defense. he really unpacked, criticized and took down the rationality and has put forward to justify the war and the 1st place. rush as a country where the media is very tightly controlled and very closely guards the narratives on both domestic and international policy that are portrayed domestically that are basically forced upon the people. and now you have a credible figure and insight or who has been involved in the war effort coming out and just taking up for the entire rational for the war. okay. country that is all the exhausted with it and looking at the rates failures that is

a huge blow to moscow's possession. stefan what will be the immediate effects on the war and ukraine in your long term a bunk short term. i think that is already a clear sense of disappointment on the ukraine inside the chaos in rush on to continue for some time between then obviously it has created a much stronger and most significant opportunity for ukraine to really make some type of a. and then con condo offensive on, i think in the longer term for me about the events in russia over the past on 2 or 3 days on indicate it's very clear that it's now becoming even more obvious that this is a role of that puts and can often and i think the also have significantly increase that you find bill actually damaging the chief of x, y, and scholar that's on the battlefield was so a much improved negotiation position. should it come to 2 talks the green p f most

go directly. the stuff on foreign policy had an interesting piece out which said that this mutiny is the beginning of proteins and do you share that view? i think at the moment it's a whole lot of speculation and you mean by the, the 1st i've been that i participate in this respect connection. i think it's really difficult to forecast on even over the next 12 months to 6 months. the, you know, beyond that won't exactly, this will mean for all shotwell physically meaningful the pablo structures in the crime and ok. so if they come out and confirmed that phone and a very close, so can office advisors and actually exercise location. second, michael, i'll give you the last word. what does this mean for russia and it's standing on the international stage? what does the future look like? if you're sure he's on a career being because there is

a cover of the trends are to assess center about what that's for sure. as a cadet and we'll have to change his policy. because uh, is useful. let's see. it is a create a tool based program, but what, what specific would be change? we still don't know yet. and uh, uh, a lot of people in the class i believe is that which are in the, for the not school or in russia, but stop in the restaurant. and we can sort stop special media to the patient. is stage sent me wrong, bottom to santa 3. 0 one and your browser will be what should be okay, we'll leave it there. thank you so much. so a lot of questions obviously that need to be answered, but i thank you for helping us shed light on some of the immediate ones taking my call. stephane wolf, katrina dogs, he thank you all for joining us and thank you as well for watching. you can always watch this program again any time by visiting our website that on to 0 dot com for

further discussion. go to our facebook page as facebook dot com forward slash a inside story. of course you can join the conversation on twitter handle is that a j inside story from me fully back to barton the whole team here in doha, thanks watching bye for now the the base people have no way to build the workforce out of their neighborhoods because of the fighting going on between rival gang, what he's offering. nothing further about special forces were different from the

special forces. this area used to be filled with people, but as you can see right now, it looks like a war zone. this is the largest hospital in haiti, and it has been fairly working for the past 5 months. for the missionary, fair barbecue has created what is known as the g 9. it's a federation of dance, and it's one of the most powerful here. these roles connect the communal fit to be with an other area that is not far away and were told that it was being used by gang, some people that had been kidnapped. where is the western agenda had a best the g 7 really even matter anymore. who's more electable, joe biden, or donald trump, or journalist in the media undermining our society. can americans cross their supreme court is not correct because it can look us pull it too often line years from i'll just say on the go and me tonight out is there is only mobile app.

is that the, this is where we, the effect from out is there is a mobile app available in your favorite top to just set for it and typed on a new app from out to 0 new at you think? is it the, the robots as an in doha, the top stories on how to 0 russians state media is reporting that the head of the wagner, most of the group is under investigation. there's despite of recent d. o, grunting him immunity and safe passage to by the rules as far as his took over military sites in southern russia on saturday. gosh, his defense minister said guy showing go has appeared on the front line for the 1st time since then. he was in a long as you, if you've got any precaution demanded sugars, removal and accused.