is to focused on this day's wet here this week. the photo and i've gone a storm late poverty and unemployment has been central to global opiate production . and this home to missions of drug rounding them up. former jay, the fighter and recovering, dedicates his life to giving them the witness a 2nd shot on that just the fighting in. so don is once again intensified several si, size have failed to stop the blood shed and the conflict has spread beyond cartoon . so what more can be done to bring peace, especially by outside powers within to and this is inside story, the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm fully back to built. it's been more than 2 months now since the lives of millions of people across the don plunged into war and uncertainty. the fighting between the army and power military rapids support forces has intensified a number of seats. ideas agreed to talk sled by the united states and saudi arabia has failed to stake. people are desperate, many have run out of the basic necessities. the conflict has the space more than 2000000 people and neighboring countries, like chad struggling to cope with the influx of refugees. so what standing in the way of a long term cease fire, and what more can outside power is due to convince the warring sides to put down their weapons. we'll put these questions so i guess in just a moment,

but 1st we had a baby. has this update houses, incidents, capital. who to him shake because of the relentless fighting the parent military, rapid support forces say they have seized the headquarters of a heavy on police units. hello. it's forced families in the area to stay in those while they fish voltages of essential supplies. and however, on monday, when we hope that this will stop, people has to be severely served as a result of this war. some has to be displaced and some are standing on the borders . we hope to god that this one would be stopped. the conflict between army chief at the front, the headboard hon, and his former deputy artist as commander more from a time then the goal has resulted in the death of at least 2000 people since mid april. that's according to the united nations, a u. s. and saudi arabia have been meditating for several weeks, but numerous. these fighters have come and gone non has stopped the fighting.

that's despite commitments from both sides to ensure access to a w in atlanta. i know, and before april, 15, 2023, the number of people in need of a military aid was at 15800000, including 3700000 internally displaced persons. this number rose to 24700000 people, including more than 18000000. you need urgent mentoring. 8. does a 57 percent increase compared to the level of before the conflict in the fuck. i'm know the violence has spread to the west and that's the region. the other major battle ground, its largest 15. yeah. law has experienced intense fighting, leading to a surgeon referred to using casualties. you unofficial have want of possible crimes against humanity and the conflicts estimate dimension. in fact, for the international organization for migration says more than

a 150000 people have fled to neighboring child from there. for of the charging, prime minister is appealing for substantial financial and technical support. but with each passing day, the pursuit of last in peace ensued on seems to slip away for the head. i love b. d for inside story. well, so far they've been more than 16 si size, with a majority being broken by the us and the saudi arabia. the most recent one lasted 3 days and ended on june 21st with heavy fighting resuming within minutes. a few days prior to that, the warring side had agreed to another 72 hours cease fire after an air raid in khartoum killed 17 people. and on june 9 for 24 hours, sci fi was declared to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid. african need is we're also involved in efforts to ease the suffering by the conversations failed to deliver any meaningful results.

well, that's welcome. i guess for today's inside story in berlin. hollow tie, funding director at the confluence advisory, i think time previously based in cartoon in cairo, egypt time me to the fall of saddam policy research or his work focuses on constitution building in. so don and in london, donnelly, i've done more in political commentator and for me, during this a warm welcome to all 3 of you. thank you very much for joining us on inside story . i know that you owe left. so don, recently, how many, let me start with you, you left cartoon just a few weeks ago and the fighting has intensified since the last sci fi do ended? what is your assessment 1st as to who has the upper hand, which side has the edge right now? it, it's, it's very hard to do to decide who has the upper hand, particularly and so to him, where most of the fighting is focused. uh opinion of a is a degree bedford takes this into a degree speaking about said to him uh,

you know it, it keeps on changing. uh, but the phone from the doctor support, forces, and amenities. do have more ground troops than the asked is that the, the military of these they need them forces. so if we look at it from that side of the city force that suggest that i gotta save, you know, is more visible in different neighborhoods. i don't put to, but the army have made has the power the r s f doesn't have a power. how do you explain that they've been able to hold off and hold on for so long of the public support associates do have quite advanced uh, income that they have got from the dealer can see. and, and so and so which country is twice, uh well, specifically the united states and, and other outlines. b that, that we know of you that support. so i do have uh with,

with the group for and since it was uh and the image has been mentioned and so, and uh, so they do good that kind of support and they have these advanced, i did cups that have been to some extent, obviously vision uh they have very quotesoft by of them. uh, shooting most people uh, despises. uh, hold on me. then the other thing is that, you know, it may have been a 5 when, when it was when uh, in the hearts of cities and so, and it went down the positive result, have ground forces it kind of in between to reach out to them by the way to set the disadvantage a venue so much that and, and force can do. okay. you talked about in the fighting in uh so don, uh, the western region of dot 4. and i'll come back to that in a moment. i need and, and ask you more about the significance of that. but i want to ask diet 1st about what you've been hearing dahlia for the peep from the people you've been speaking to about the situation in cartoon. what's the sentiment on the ground from those

will stay behind in sedan from those who couldn't afford to leave. do they feel abandoned? it's not just the issue of a band and then a lot of boats or who have been forced to stay behind. and cartoon, they say, there's a, there's a uptake, there's a hype in looting and funding, it's a and actually, you know, from the r assess point number, that's a ceasefire. you know, it, those. so that's also a worry for lots of people because there's no way for them to leave and they, a lot of them are forced to evacuate. their homes are forced to, you know, surrender, or to just get ready for the opera stuff and the atrocities. but there's been an uptake and the number of freight cases i've been hearing this uh, you know, there's a hard time we're afraid. file nations taking place. people being, i know also about the tax from the air from the army has also like you mentioned in the beginning of this show, 17 people were killed from an air strike so that the issue of abandonment. i think

that was set in stone from day one me because every day the situation keeps getting worse. if even those are still trying to get out a little borders are closing in our faces or they're still open. there's a lot of, you know, like, is registration that needs to be in place before we can cross over. so that sense of being abandoned has always been there. it's not something new. it's just been, it's been cemented. the longer this concept goes on, the more we were more, oh, you know, we're more convinced that it has to come from us from inside. so that, and from the put in, you know, for, for the to be any chance of this war ending because of the see suarez aren't on working. right. because he seems to seem to be fame in this, these fires are not working out and ask you a bit more about why why diplomacy hasn't worked in just a minute. but i want to bring in, followed into the conversation. who does we said this now? fighting, also an adult for an adult for region officer don in yeah, loud,

the largest city in da 4 in elgin, ne, now where many people have fled from and headed to chide. how concerning is see that the fighting is no longer just confined to car? to him is now an old lout, civil war it's getting there. i think it's not a surprise that will probably take areas and areas where there has been significant conflicts of, of the policy is even if those conflicts have gone into some level of dormancy. have seen this complex, weak 9th and it's not just awful. it's also southcourt design. i'm to 9 and what we've seen crashes between this down on pulses in the rapids, the pool forces as well as groups already in those areas. now in the whole, i think it's going to be on just the conflict. it is the conflict now between the 2 forces have brought to life back some of the existing complex there and have actually precipitated mass atrocities. and some would say genocide. and that's because there's the 2nd level of schools that's going on now,

particularly in the fall under the guise of this current will. it was quite clear with that though, both sides have encouraged particularly the are assess, haven't cards. a lot of the fighting in the full, the fleeting control limits and said to what extent that fighting can now be minimized remains to be seen. but certainly we're going to see this will become far more for, for to forward afraid fall more than before. it ceases. how many do you have thoughts about what's happening in dial 4 of course, but it's not just thought for as a whole load mentioned, it's also a soft core to find car to them, of course. but what, why is donald for significant to leads to generals? so yeah, that's, that's a very good question. that's what is a very important, a kind of region for the, for the boys for both acted obviously that this disability of aging, which had suffered a conflict for over 1020 years now. but why. a is it important for both actors uh for the facility?

i said uh this is basically a database. uh, if you like, this is the way most of uh, you know, the mini shad the groups and so and most of the types that they would recruitment from my phone. i didn't that for athletically out of tribes out of jack for the interaction. been they extend the thing to others, but mostly assume that the agent i'm, this is way that constituency. it's sort of since with the inductance, but it's with a visual side, right? you'd like and also the boy this it's uh that for, for that is a be a chat and the accent that i think he probably also you can please fighting for the cookies for a dinner committee and that up to support. first of the 10, those, you know, support and out of supply and so and to have city libya or i'd be tied into position and chad on the bottom, the groups i broken and it sets it off to get it public. so for committed that's a bit of dictate, i'd also way he would kind of go as a plan

b if he fails to take over the curriculum. and the whole thing was, you know, how made, let me just interrupt you that because you mentioned wagner. and i do want to talk about the recent events in russia. what impacts do you see this crisis and vacuum is uncertain future having on the recess and the support they've been getting from wagner. do you, do you think this could have an impact on the conflict in saddam? i think from, from, from, from where there might be a silver lining for us. that would be events that, that they could base in just at the moment that the, by the bill would, would be less interested unless available to support. do that and support forces and that's what's kind of uh, health in, in, in, in listing before. so i'm in, so in that and, and so and so yeah that's, that's, i think that, that, that would be, that's good. that would have a positive impact on back on that. okay, darling, let me come to, you know, i'd ask you why diplomacy has failed. what's hindering the settlements to this

conflict a well, i don't think i have a side is actually willing to, to negotiate or to even talk. i mean, the intent is not there for this conflict for this war to and, and i think also in my opinion, the fact that civic groups and the political parties, regardless of what we feel about them are not even present during the talks, is a huge set back because you need to involve all actors, all actors who have a say you have a stake in this war. but when you just leave it to look to these 2 generals and their armies, mean their intentions are the site they want to wait. and that's what that will cost, both sides are digging in the game. and i think also the tactics used by the negotiating parties have been misplaced. and i think the recent statement from the united states says that says it's all in old. molly mcphee said that they

need to have a rethink, so to speak. and that was the mistake big that from since the days of the cool back in 2021. so i think it's a number of reasons you know, so, but i think at the end of the day for me, the fact that neither side really are serious about the cease fires are long serious about and think this conflict and it to as long as it goes as a somewhat forgotten conflict, forgotten war they can pretty much get continued to get away what they've been doing so far. okay, hold your thoughts about this. is this heading towards a forgotten conflict? and dalia says that the tactics used by the negotiating parties, the us and saudi arabia have been misplaced. what are your thoughts about this? and why do you think diplomacy hasn't worked to? i think it's timely that the jet adults have been paused. i just, i don't think they did anything to put them into a pos, towards any ceasefire. and in fact, the sci fi is we used by the generals and the institutions as

a means to resupply and for the are set to pillage homes and chemicals of human rights abuses. so yes, the, as soon as he does need to be a recent guessing that needs to be a very deep view, we think which i'm not really seeing any prospect for, but out of the international community to the mediating has been largely trusting these generals and the answer to wishing them to be a reform is rather than seeing them as a bad, we will act as that. they all, i'm hoping that the next rounds of mediation can indeed reflect that recognition of exactly who they are. these are people who are not interested in civilian democracy . it goes against every single interest they have. they had been waging a war against democracy. those actually started a lot of area, then this car and for, and this was in many ways and you bring them in ship that they have and exact mil concessions from pro democracy active. which may indeed be the case. there is no military victory here at some point they will have to come to negotiating to the negotiating table mediated at that point as well as to down civilians need to be

ready with a set top that blue with the civilians gives them the you know, of the, the bread that is required to include as many as possible embrace of the complexity and divisions of the down the democratic active and pushes for entirely new visions . this is done right? how many deal with fonts to the saudis and the americans have failed so far? in bringing the 2 sides to reach a settlement, but they are a lot of other would be mediators in this conflicts fee you, when you egypt, for example, some of the gulf countries, the african union, e god as well, who has the better leverage in your view who stands a chance at stopping the fighting and getting the generals to stop by to i think the only the only way forward is a quote, the native and the unified misunderstood one of the issues that we have, you know, the scene is the competition between these different initiatives, which kind of gives the, the dentist excuses to get thousands of adults through the day and to progress to

me. so that's what partition has been very helpful. and i think it, it, it, it needs to come to a point where, where we need to coordinate to a unified making, isn't it the, is it, is it, is it a sanctions? what sort of mechanism speak to or is it financial incentives, obviously echo. and the comprehensive package that includes a political process with key agenda, and that's what it said was to be the end of the heart of your time and deciding that did the 4th and so on. and then i finished with liberties and power to come with him. so there's also no consequences for most of being part of the process and know following to different cuz that's part of the process or could be part of the process. i have to send things to open that are you doing an active like so the like uh, the image like it depends on who have that. uh, you know, alliances and relations with dougherty fractions. and they use these relations to

leverage that. i don't doubt them. i think the process was not at work when then you have wisdom governments, i see fusions that, that would be more reasonable to see who would be able to present. and to make sure that the democrats ization that didn't, that had the piece at making. and so, and i this the script and so on, but could also come with, with it or look at it as i mentioned, taxes and put them in a kind of situations. okay. dahlia. your thoughts which outside power do you think has the leverage today and get some response from the rival to the needs parties to stop this conflict? i think if they wanted to the way they have influence on both sides and it can easy. why do you mean they don't roll onto uh why, why not? i, i honestly don't. i think it's, i think they were hedging their bets. this is my personal opinion. i think they're

hedging their bets. whichever side emergence victoria is a benefit is a benefit to them. i think egypt has been sidelined as him to have a role or to have a say, i think also economically what, what egypt is going through his finger parking them being somewhat to the side. but most definitely, i think the gulf region is the gulf countries, especially saudi arabia and the u. e. can have a bigger role can do more if they so would want to. but why they don't want to, i can't guess from my, i mean, i can't, i don't see. i don't know why, but i just for me, is there hedging their bets? okay, hold on. do your thoughts about this? why wouldn't be you a he pushed hotter pressure more and i think, you know, this works on several levels. on one level. they are concerned about these limits right? within the sit on, on pulses. but that of course is in many ways it was sort of red herring because isn't this exist across the, the sydney's political landscape, including within the hour such as well. i think the iris have,

have most likely made guarantee to the u. e. and all the back has to be in the wind and they would be able to make good on those promises. and the same goes for this it out on falls isn't as long as the 2 main belligerence and their international back is. do not a recognize that this contract will not end in the military victory. they will continue to push for that minute trip to join. in the meantime, it is the people to sit down who will continue to face the bronze of that. as the quick of these, all the sides, including the international actors, get to and negotiating table with the genuine willingness to negotiate the better it will be. but as i said before, those issues kinda prioritize ministry active, they must buy or tied civilian act. and sort of puts accountability front and center. how made your thoughts? all right? yes. go ahead. uh, go ahead. uh don. yeah, add something and then i'll come tell me. just continue going from what totaled was seeing. i don't think any of the regional actors would like to have the civilian

parties at the hearts and send to me because that will i pressure to the on them and it doesn't come. it doesn't pay into their hands up to have a country that worries. there's a civilian government tool, so to speak, and in their own countries they, they're also aquatic regina in power. so, so it's just what works for us is to the disadvantage of others. and they're the ones who can pull the strings, so to speak. and so i don't think they will be winning or wanting to push forward the whole civilian aspect as an add to this more. how many do your thoughts about this, about the civilian not aspect of this and is terrace to get a civilian figure head today that could be involved in these negotiations? i think the 2 sides should just a, uh, the probably uh, of the mediators on how they are. so it would be, for instance, initially when they did the platform, i spoke to 2 sides like uh, to be in uh, but also own as an initiative sofa. they have most indeed,

uh civilians that i treat. so these, that issue. now the issue is from basically the inside as well as the thing that they needs to be at the more clear uh, you know, us court or, or ident them from civilian sides on tens of the, 10s the see the process, how they see things moving forward. and how the order within the as being i know, toward kind of campaign, that's what the stablish a few, a couple of side days a week after the what it up did back in april. but that has not kind of people and develop it's, it's uh, you know, perspectives and vision in a more detailed way that could be a take on board. so i think that is that gap and that type as well, that needs to be sent that soon as possible. i understand that be the kind of limits people's ability to convene and discuss. but i think by now we have established some ways of communication that should help us with that kind of uh,

you know, i propose it totally. yeah. corner deal, thoughts about this i so you want us to jump in when i asked the question about whether there was a civilian figurehead today that could be involved in negotiations. you know, and then that shouldn't be. this is a collective movement. it does not rely on individuals when it has relied on individual. it has no, it hasn't worked out. and so i think we shouldn't try and keep slugging that dead horse. i think that should be a mechanism that much more represents the collective nature of the saddam per democracy movement. and is therefore able to observe the differing political perspective that, that, that exist. because that's the only way that you're going to get a movement of the then translates into representation. in other words, you kind of have a past and represented the entire breadth of the pro democracy movement is much better to have a common agenda are coming vision. now, is there a platform that can come to do that know that the closest one i guess would be the

a you the escalation platform because we've been that a central tenet is civilian engagement. but they have been very little movements on that. and i need very high level tasks supposed to be able to put that into motion . you mentioned the a you, i was going to ask you about, you know, african leaders and, and african initiatives as well. a got the east african regional blog. how involved, has it been and can that be of any positive outcomes, especially when you consider that a collapse of to done would affect that entire each as well? absolutely. it is incumbent upon the getting the african union to pay close attention to this because they will be the ones to feelings. 5, the impacts of state collapse fast. now we have seen some movements from particularly kenya within the, within he got, but a lot of the over to is coming out of both the get on the african union have a lot more to do with the personal ambitions of member states rather than the sedans and future, and i think that once that is, has been re configuring, i'd actually sit down teachers, but right front and center. all the mediation approach then be able to see not just

a better and foster response to what's going on incident, but also a lot more complementarity between e god and the african union. and as well. of course, the united nations and other international active we haven't seen that yet and time is you know um is absolutely of the essence. so these institutions need to put aside personal interest of member states and puts it on front and center. time is running out. dia, i'll come to you for the final word. what are the prospects today for peace is done when you speak to people who are still back home. how hopeful are they that this good and so they're very open say fatal mistake, but they have they put the place higher hopes on intervention from the, from, from god then from and the other side coming in the see know laptop. i mean, we're lucky, the 3 of us me haven't been polluted. we'd like to be all managed to get out. but those who are still bad, there's no one helping them in the humanitarian situation is getting worse. and

it's, i mean, when i speak to people, they just very in no fee to complete, this is what it is and seems like in a way, accepted their faith. so they give it to us. we need, this is not given up, but through dislike, whatever, you know, this is what it is where here no help is coming. there is no sign of a mess up from the, from the conflict. you know, you keep hearing stories and, you know, it's getting closer and closer to home to those who are being affected. you know, and so it's, it's hard, it's, it's easy for me to speak from, from being outside. but those are still there. i, i, they're like, you know, i mean i can't even express it properly. they've no way they have given up, but they put their faith in god and they're hoping that something will happen soon . then it's a breakthrough or a miracle, but i don't think they have much belief in that, but it's, it's, it's,

it's helping them obisky things holding them. thank you so much for sharing your views or experiences with us. all 3 of you. how many tele find a whole new tire? donnelly abdel, one m. thank you so much for joining us on insights story and thank you to for watching. you can always watch this program again. any time by visiting our website that i want. is there a dot com for further discussion? go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a inside story. and of course you can join the conversation on twitter. handle is at a j inside story from me, from the back to board and a whole team here in doha. thanks for watching the the

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