seem recent floods as much slides in the whole. the criminal drug dealing septic to places beyond the reach of the many people, you know, i've got to go from the wave of the truck. gorilla was in columbia and to mexico, where the car tells have been responsible for a muscle, a spiral final. the final episode of drug trafficking territories on fighting in. so don is once again intensifying several si, size have failed to stop the blood shed, and the conflict has spread beyond cartoon. so what more can be done to bring peace, especially by outside powers within to and this is inside story, the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm fully back people. it's been more than 2 months now since the lives of millions of people across the don plunged into war and uncertainty. the fighting between the army and power military rapids support forces has intensified a number of c. so ideas agreed to talk sled by the united states and saudi arabia has failed to stick. people are desperate. many have run out of the basic necessities. the conflict has the space more than 2000000 people and neighboring countries like china struggling to cope with the influx of refugees. so what standing in the way of a long term cease fire, and what more can outside powers do to convince the warring sides to put down their weapons? well, put these questions so i guess in just a moment, but 1st we had

a baby. has this update, the houses incidents capital for tomb shake because of the relentless fighting the battle is yeah, the para military rapids support forces say they have seized the headquarters of a heavy on police units. hello. it's forced families in the area to stay in those while they fish voltages of essential supplies. and however, on monday, we hope that this will stop, people has be severely served as a result of this war. some has to be displaced and some are standing on the borders . we hope to god that this level of this stopped the conflict between army chief at the front, the head board han and his former deputy artist of commander mohammed times on the gold has resulted in the death of at least 2000 people since mid april. that's according to the united nations. the u. s. and saudi arabia have been meditating for several weeks, but numerous. these fighters have come and gone non has stopped the fighting.

that's despite commitments from both sides to ensure access to a w in atlanta. i know, and before april, 15, 2023, the number of people in need of a military aid was at 15800000 pump, including 3700000 internally displaced persons. this number rose to 24700000 people including more than 18000000. you need urgent. how many carrying 8 does a 57 percent increase compared to the level before the conflict? fuck, i'm know, the violence has pressed to the west and that's the region. the other major battle ground, its largest 15 y'all, law has experienced intense fighting, leading to a surgeon reference using casualties. you and officials have one of possible crimes against humanity and the conflicts estimate dimension index for of the international organization for migration says more than

a 150000 people have fled to neighboring child from there for the charging, prime minister is appealing for substantial financial and technical support, but with each passing day, the pursuit of lost in peace ensued on seems to slip away for the me here i'll be for inside story. well, so far they've been more than 16 si size, with a majority being broke good by the us and saudi arabia, the most recent one lasted 3 days and ended on june 21st with heavy fighting resuming within minutes. a few days prior to that, the warring sides had agreed to another 72 hours cease fire after an air raid in khartoum killed 17 people. and on june 9 for 24 hours sci fi was declared to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid. african need is we're also involved in efforts to ease the suffering, but the conversations failed to deliver any meaningful results.

well, that's welcome. i guess for today's inside story in berlin. hollow tie, funding director at the confluence advisory, i think time previously based in cartoon in cairo, egypt time, me to follow. so don policy researcher is work focuses on constitution building in . so don and in london, donnelly, i've done more in political commentator and full major and this one welcome to all 3 of you. thank you very much for joining us on inside story. i know that you owe left. so don, recently, how many, let me start with you, you left cartoon just a few weeks ago and the fighting has intends to 5 since the last sci fi do ended. what is your assessment 1st as to who has the upper hand, which side has the edge right now? and it's, it's very hard to, to, to decide who has the upper hand uh, particularly. and so to me, where most of the pricing is focused. uh if i think it is, uh,

i think the bed for the dates this and she i basically speaking about her to him. uh, you know it, it keeps on changing. uh, but the phone from the doctor support forces. uh, pen amenities. do have more. uh, ground troops than the asked is that the the military of these vineyards um forces . uh so if we look at it from that side. uh the city post bed suggest that uh, i gotta save. uh, you know, is more visible at a different neighborhoods. uh at um for 2, but the army have made has the power the r s f doesn't have a power. how do you explain that they've been able to hold off and hold on for so long the the penalty to drop it split forces do have quite advanced on the edge of that they have good from the dealer can see. and, and so, and so which country slides, uh well specifically that united that image and, and other highlights that we know of you that support. so i do have uh, with,

with the girlfriend since the bush. uh, and the image has been mentioned. and so and uh, so they do good that kind of support and they have these advanced i did cups that have been just, i'm extend, obviously vision. they have very quotesoft by of them at shooting most people despises. hold on me. then the other thing is that, you know, it may have been a 5 when, when it was when the hearts of cities been so and it went down the positive result, have ground forces. it kind of, if you tweet to reset them by the way, it's set the disadvantage a value to so much that and, and force can do. okay. you talked about in the fighting in uh so don, uh, the western region of dot 4. and i'll come back to that in a moment. i need and, and ask you more about the significance of that. but i want to ask donnie a 1st about what you've been hearing a dalia for the peep from the people you've been speaking to about the situation in

cartoon. what's the sentiment on the ground from those will stay behind in sedan from those who couldn't afford to leave. do they feel abandoned? it's not just the issue of a band and then a lot of boats or who have been forced to stay behind. and cartoon, they say, there's a, there's a uptake, there's a hype in looting and finding it's a and actually it'll from the r assess, but never, that's a ceasefire. you know, it, those. so that's also a worry for lots of people because there's no way for them to leave and they, a lot of them are forced to evacuate. their homes are forced to, you know, surrender, or to just get ready for the opera stuff and the atrocities. but there's been an uptake in the number of cases i've been hearing this. uh, you know, there's a large number of great foundations taking place. people being i and it'll also about the tax from the air from the army has also like you mentioned in the beginning of this show, 17 people were killed from an air strike so that the issue of abandonment. i think

that was set in stone from day one. mm hm. because every day the situation keeps getting worse. if even those are still trying to get out a little borders are closing in our faces or they're still open. there's a lot of, you know, like, it's like just ration that needs to be in place before we can cross over. so that sense of being abandoned has always been there. it's not something new. it's just been, it's been cemented. the longer this concert goes on. the more we were more, oh, you know, we're more convinced that it has to come from us from inside. so that, and from the put in, you know, for, for the to be any chance of this war ending because of the see suarez aren't on working. right. because he seems to seem to be failing english, he's 5 and not working on not ask you a bit more about why why diplomacy hasn't worked in just a minute. but i want to bring in, followed into the conversation, hold as we said this now, fighting, also an adult for an adult for region of don. in yeah, law,

the largest city in da 4 in elgin, ne, now where many people have fled from and headed to chide. how concerning is see that the fighting is no longer just confined to car? to him is now an old lout, civil war. it's getting there, i think it's not a surprise that will probably take areas and areas where there has been significant complex of, of the policy is even if those conflicts have gone into some level of dormancy, have seen this complex weak nights and it's not just awful it's also soccer design . i'm to 9 and what we've seen crashes between this down on pulses and the rapids to pull forces as well as groups already in those areas. now in the whole, i think it's going to be on just the conflict is the conflict now between the 2 forces have brought to life back some of the um, the existing complex there and have actually precipitated mass atrocities. and some would say genocide. and that's because there's the 2nd level of schools that's

going on now, particularly in the fall under the guise of this current. well, it was quite clear that though both sides have encouraged, particularly the hours that haven't cards a lot of the fighting in the full, the fleeting control limits. and so to what extent that fighting can now be minimized remains to be seen. but suddenly we're going to see this will become far more for, for to ford afraid fall more than before. it seizes how many do you have, thoughts about what's happening in dial 4 of course, but it's not just thought for as a whole load mentioned. it's also a soft core to find car to them, of course. but what, why is donald for significant to these 2 generals? so yeah, that's, that's a very good question. that's for is a very important, a kind of region for the affordable for both active. yeah, obviously that this is the city and the identity of aging, which had suffered a conflict for over 1020 years. uh now uh that was why is it important for both actors uh, for the familiarity. i said, uh this is basically

a database. uh if you like, this is do a most of uh, you know, the mini shad the groups and, and so and uh, most of the types at the recruitment from my phone. i didn't that for a particularly out of tribes out of debt for the interaction, and then they extend that to include others, but mostly assume that the agent i'm, this is way that constituency. it's so close as with the inductance, but it's with a digital side, right? you'd like and also the vote is it's uh that for, for that is a be a chat. and that's it. i figured you probably also you can please try to import the cookies for a dentist committee and build up the support. first of the 10 those, you know, support them out of supply and so in through have city maybe a or i'd be tied into position and chad on the bottom to groups i broken and it sets it off to get it perfect. so what submitted that's a good bit of stuff based. i'd also way he would kind of go as a plan

b if he fails to take over the curriculum and the the how made. let me just interrupt you that because you mentioned wagner. and i do want to talk about the recent events in russia. what impacts do you see there's crisis and vacuum to is uncertain future having on the recess and the support they've been getting from wagner. do you, do you think this could have an impact on the conflict in saddam? i think from, from, from, from where there might be a silver lining for us. there would be events that then taking place in this, at the moment that the vitamin built would, would be less interested unless available to support the support forces. i'm. that's what's kind of uh, helps in wishing before to i mean, so in that and, and so and so yeah, in that sense i think that that that would be, that's good. that would have a positive impact on back on. okay, darling, let me come to, you know, i'd ask you why diplomacy has failed. what's hindering uh,

the settlements to this conflict? well, i don't think either side is actually willing to, to negotiate or to even talk. i mean, the intent is not there for this conflict for this war to and, and i think also in my opinion, the fact that civic groups and the political parties, regardless of what we feel about them are not even present during the talks, is a huge set back because you need to involve all actors, all actors who have a say you have a stake in this war. but when you just need me to look to these 2 generals and their armies, mean their intentions are the site they want to win. and what the cost, both sides are digging in the getting in and, and i think also the tactics used by the negotiating parties have been misplaced. and i think the recent statement from the united states says it says it's all in old volley. mcphee said that they need to have a rethink,

so to speak. and that was the mistake big that from since the days of the cool back in 2021. so i think it's a, this is a number of reasons you know, so, but i think it's the end of the day for me, the fact that neither side really are serious about the cease fires are long serious about and think this conflict and it as long as it goes, as a somewhat forgotten conflict, forgotten war, they can pretty much get continued to get away what they've been doing so far. okay, hold your thoughts about this. is this heading towards a forgotten conflict? and dalia says that the tactics used by the negotiating parties, the us and saudi arabia have been misplaced. what are your thoughts about this? and why do you think diplomacy hasn't worked? and i think it's timely that the dead adults have been paused. i just, i don't think they did anything to put them into a pos, towards any ceasefire. and in fact the si size. we used by the generals and the

institutions as a means to resupply and for the are a set to pillage homes and commit to all sorts of human rights abuses. and so, yes, that absolutely doesn't need to be a recent guessing that needs to be a very deep view, we think, which i'm not really seeing any prospect for, but out of the international community to the mediating has been largely trusting these generals. and the answer to wishing them to be reform is rather than seeing them as a bad, we will act as that. they all, i'm hoping that the next rounds of mediation can indeed reflect that recognition of exactly who they are. these are people who are not interested in civilian democracy . it goes against every single interest they have. they had been waging a war against democracy. those actually started a lot earlier than this car and for, and this war is in many ways and you bring them and ship the they have and the exact mo, concessions from pro democracy active. which may indeed be the case. there is no military victory here at some point they will have to come to negotiating to the negotiating table mediated at that point as well as the down civilians need to be

ready with a set up. the blue with the civilians gives them the, you know, of the bread that is required to include as many as possible. embrace of the complexity and divisions of saddam's democratic active pushes for entirely new vision because it done right. how many deal with fonts to the saudis? and the americans have failed so far and bringing the 2 sides to reach a settlement, but they are a lot of other would be mediators in this conflicts b, you, when you egypt, for example, some of the gulf countries, the african union, e got as well, who has a better leverage in your view, who stands a chance at stopping the fighting and getting the general assistant fight to. i think the only the only way forward is a coordinated and the unified misunderstood. what are the issues that we have, you know, the scene is the competition between these different initiatives which kind of gives the, the dentist excuses to get thousands of adults through did they do progress to me?

so that's what partition has been very helpful. and i think it, it, it, it needs to come to a point where, where we need to coordinate to a unified make and isn't it the, is it, is it, is it, uh, sanctions what sort of mechanisms big or is it financial incentives obviously echo and comprehensive package that includes a policy can process with key that didn't that, and that's what it said was to be the end of the how to fit time and deciding that did the 4th. and so, and i'm been active with liberty to an hour to come with him. so there's also no consequences for most of being part of the process. i know following 2 different cuz that's part of the posts or would be part of the process. i have to send things to ok. dad, are you doing an active like so the like uh, the image. uh like, it depends on who have that. uh, you know, uh, alliances and relations with the dougherty fractions. and they use these relations

to leverage that item about them. i think the process would not work well. then you have wisdom governments, i see fusions that's a bit more reasonable to see who would be able to present. and to make sure that the democrats as ation ident, that'd be faced at making. and so, and i this a quarter to, and so most will come with with it or leave it as i mentioned factions. and you can only kind of situations. okay. dahlia, your thoughts which outside power do you think has the leverage today and get some response from the rival to these parties to stop this conflict? i think if they wanted to the way they have influence on both sides and it can easy. why do you like they don't roll onto oh, why, why not? i, i honestly don't. i think it's, i think they were hedging their bets. this is my personal opinion. i think they're

hedging their bets. whichever side emergence victoria is a benefit is a benefit to them. i think egypt has been sidelined as him to have a role or to have a say, i think also economically what, what egypt is going through his finger parking them being somewhat to the side. but most definitely, i think the gulf region is the gulf countries, especially saudi arabia and the u. e. can have a bigger role can do more if they so would want to. but why they don't want to, i can't guess from my, i mean, i can't, i don't see. i don't know why, but i just for me, is there hedging their bets? okay, hold on. do your thoughts about this? why wouldn't be you a he pushed hotter pressure more. i think, you know, this works on several levels on one level. they are concerned about these limits right? within the sit on armed forces. but that of course is in many ways it was sort of red herring because there's this exist across the, the sydney is a political landscape, including within the hour such as well. i think the iris have,

have most likely made guarantee to the u. e. and all that back as it is, and they, when they would be able to make good on those promises. and the same goes for this it out on forces. and as long as the 2 main belligerence and their international back is, do not a recognize that this contract will not end in the military victory. they will continue to push for that minute tribute joined in the meantime. it is the people to sit down who will continue to face the bronze of that. and so the quick of these, all the sides, including the international actors, get to negotiating table with the genuine willingness to negotiate the better it will be. but as i said before, the designations kinda prioritize ministry active, they must buy or tied civilian active and sort of puts accountability front incentive. i need your thoughts. all right? yes, go, go ahead. uh, go ahead. uh you add something and then they'll come tell me just continue going from what totaled was seeing. i don't think any of the regional actors would like

to have the civilian parties at the hearts and center. i mean, because that will i pressure to the on them and it doesn't come. it doesn't pay into their hands up to have a country that worries. there's a civilian government tool, so to speak, and in their own countries that their author, crossteck regina is in power. so, so it's just what works for us is to the disadvantage of others. and they're the ones who can pull the strings, so to speak. and so i don't think they will be winning or wanting to push forward the whole civilian aspect as an actor this more. how many do you have thoughts about this, about the civil and aspect of this and is terrace to get a civilian figure head today that could be involved in these negotiations. i think the 2 sides to just a, uh, the, probably a little of the mediators on how they are. so it would be, for instance, initiative them to the platform high school teacher, sidelines to be in but also own as an initiative. so 5,

they have nothing dates at civilians in that actually. so they have that issue. the other issue is from disagree inside as well as saying that they needs to be more clear. uh, you know, us or or, or ident from, from civilian sides on 10 just of the see the process, how they see things moving forward and how the order within the as being i know toward kind of got home or campaign that was established a few uh, a couple of side days a week after the what it up did back in april. but that has most kind of people and people it's, it's uh, you know, perspectives and vision in a more detailed way that could be a take on board, succeed beds that gap and that type as well. that needs to be seen as soon as possible. i understand that the daughter kind of limits people's ability to convene and discuss but they think by now we have established some ways of communication that should help us with that kind of uh, you know,

i propose it forward. yeah. corner deal, thoughts about this i so you want to jump in when i asked the question about whether there was a civilian figure head today, that could be involved in a negotiations, you know, and then that shouldn't be. this is a collective movement. it does not rely on individuals when it has relied on individual, it has no, it hasn't worked out. and so i think we shouldn't try and keep slugging that dead horse. i think that should be a mechanism that much more represents the collective nature of the salon per democracy movement and is therefore able to observe the differing political perspectives that, that, that exist. because that's the only way that you're going to get a movement of the then translates into representation. in other words, you kind of have a past and represented the entire breadth of the pro democracy movement is much better to have a common agenda are coming vision. now, is there a platform that can come to do that know that most of the closest one i guess would

be the a u. d escalation platform. because we've been that a central tenet is civilian engagement, but they have been buried. it'll movement on that. and right need very high level tasks supposed to be able to put that into motion. you mentioned the a you, i was going to ask you about, you know, african leaders and, and african initiatives as well as the east african regional blog. how involved, has it been and can that be of any positive outcomes, especially when you consider that a collapse of so done would affect that entire region as well? absolutely. it is incumbent upon he got in the african union to pay close attention to this because they will be the ones to feelings. 5, the impacts of state collapse fast. now we have seen some movements from particularly kenya within the, within he got, but a lot of the over to is coming out of both he got on the african union have a lot more to do with the personal ambitions of member states rather than the sedans and the future, and i think it, once that is, has been re configuring, i'd actually sit down teachers, but right front and center. all the mediation approach then be able to see not just

a better. i'm foster response to what's going on incident, but also a lot more complementarity between the god and the african union as well across the united nations and other international active. we haven't seen that yet and time is, you know, um is absolutely of the essence. so these institutions need to put aside personal interest of member states and puts it on front and center. time is running out. dia, i'll come to you for the final word. what are the prospects today for p since down when you speak to people who are still back home? how hopeful on day that this good and so they're very within say, faith, domestic. but they have, they put the place higher hopes on intervention from the get from, from god. then from india, beside coming in the see no laptop. i mean, we're lucky the 3 of us, me how me them pollute. we'd like to the all minds to get out, but those who are still bad,

there's no one helping them in the humanitarian situation is getting worse. and it's, i mean, when i speak to people, they just very in no fee to complete, this is what it is and they like in a way accepted their faith. have they give it to us? we need this is not given up, but they're just like whatever, you know, this is what it is where here no help is coming. there's no sign of a mess up from the, from the conflict. you know, you keep hearing stories and you know, it's getting closer and closer to home to those who are being affected. you know, and so it's, it's hard, it's, it's easy for me to speak from the, from the bank outside, but those are still there. i they're like, you know, i mean i can't even express it properly. they've no way they have given up, but they put their faith in god and they're hoping that something will happen. so and then there's a breakthrough or a miracle,

but i don't think they have much belief in that, but it's, it's, it's, it's helping them execute things, holding them. thank you so much for sharing your views or experiences with us. all 3 of you have me try to find a whole new tire. donnelly abdel, one m. thank you so much for joining us on insights story and thank you to for watching. you can always wash this program again. any time by visiting our website that i want you 0 dot com for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a great insight story. and of course you can join the conversation on twitter. handle is at a j inside story from me for the back to boy in the whole team here in doha, thanks for watching the the

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it would have been absolutely impossible to offer any like that before global exploits in discussion, the internet did not need to be the greatest to live master. it was in the history of the world, voices from different corners, vision, programs that open your eyes to an alternative view of the world today. not many people have seen this business to select on how to 0, the the mailboxes and then don't have the top stories on the altima 0 russians, president is appeared in red square to congratulate his forces off to saturdays mutiny. while the wagner group thought to be opposed and told his soldiers, they had a vote at a civil war. charges against the mice and raise have been dropped. and the government says the group is handling.