and when the news breaks, i'm in front of the building stuff was hit with a door and i talked to you and that's when people need to be hot. and the story needs to be told. i wanted to cry as if i'd never see my parents in country again with exclusive interviews and in depth reports the irrigation canals are nearly empty. i'll just say right, has teams on the ground that is just staring interaction here and been dr as to bring you more award winning document trees and life news. i guess that is set to get a $3000000000.00 bailout from the international monetary fund. the country is close to defaulting on its international depths. so will this be or safe practice? tons of could have pushed the country deeper into this. this is inside story, the

hello welcome to the program. i'm adrian finnegan. pakistan is facing, it's the worst economic crisis in decades. dwindling for an reserves and a full and the value of the p is fueling soaring inflation. political k, i also scared off foreign investors of last year is devastating floods of added to the many challenges facing the country. many hope that a stand by deal with the i am at full offer some relief and prevent the country going into default. will pakistan has been negotiating with the international monetary fund from all the? yep. so what terms has it agreed to? well, the country's revised budget for this year is to raise to $1340000000.00 in new texas. and in the past few days, it agreed to hike the main interest rate to 22 percent and keep it high for the coming year. as a cub soaring inflation fuel the energy subsidies introduced by former prime minister in wrong kind of being ended. so the new government says the budget is

people friendly as possible, but back is not, is still struggling with its highest inflation rates since 1957. and many in the countries say that reduced subsidies, coupled with higher taxes, won't bring the relief they need. so let's bring it, i guess for today is discussion from the whole we're joined by the sean. so dean, who's a political analyst working at the construction see from top lab ad in this lot of bad, we have somebody hello, he who is a political scientist and full of the pakistan on back to the, to the united nations to be that it states and united kingdom, welcome to you personally. hello, the ambassador. let's start with you. $3000000000.00. sounds a loss. but given the size of pakistan's economy and the state, but it's currently in 3000000000, isn't that much a tool? is it going to be enough to get packaged on the economy back on track? the short answer is no. it won't. it is

a short term arrangement which will address focus on immediate, urgent need not to fort, not to have a debt before. i mean, of course, it comes as a huge relief because it doesn't mean that box on is able to avert the forward. but because focus on financing needs a so enormous this short term arrangement can only provide very limited reading space. and in a few months time focus, i really need to go back to the fund for a longer term arrangement. i'm going to give you one example of focused on needs. and this fiscal year, which started today, in fact, almost $23000000000.00 to finish the financing gap on its external account. now this $3000000000.00 is not going to reduce it to that. and in any case of orchestra and has to do much more to done around its economy than simply getting

the funds from from the i mess it needs to take many structured and measures which can then address focus on, put in new financial crisis on to do it a good basis, use a perennial financial crisis about why is it a perennial annual crisis? how, how did practiced on get into this mess and the 1st place and, and why is it so perpetual of what i mean quite simply because the successive governments have been living beyond their means. they have faded to raise texas to match the expenditure. and on the external side, i think they have been bordering rather than again, finding ways to increase our exports. because we do have a huge gap in our trade account. we have a huge gap in our current account. we have a ton of account deficit. so really, you know, the sole or the roots of focus on financial crisis is actually it's fiscal crisis.

so unless focus on is be able to deal with this because, you know, successive governments, as i said, have simply get the can down the road. i mean, that's why we've been in almost 2 dozen. i'm asked for bailout programs. position it. is this paler load, i'm sorry. go to mean anything to, to the, the average person in pakistan. but it improved that lots of tools struggling as most people in the country with the cost of living crisis. that's a very good question and i would very much echo everything the excellence of nobody has already mentioned. it's possible the best could have some kind of an effect on the average public, but not for the reasons that would be found and certainly not for economically. some reasons. persons having this money could mean that the incumbent political party, a bad thing to be able and the pvp simply because they have some money in the coffers . now, perhaps the ability to collect the conduct elections,

in addition to not defaulting, give them better selection season. they come in, that's a range of protection or even measures to protect the consumer against inflationary pressure. but not only would go against, i'm of stipulations and go against would be i'm one sparks done to do, which has to be mentioned as rationalizing our expenditures against our revenues. but it also be detrimental in the long term because in order to go down to short term gain, those being, you know, both of the poles at a time when the 2 political parties, partly in power, are perhaps at their lowest and informed in terms of both performance and popularity would be a nightmare scenario for the country. so yeah, there could be some relief, but that release was not necessarily going quite to come from a sound set of decisions made by the people in charge. you also ask the question about why this is happening and i would very much echo uh, excellence and know these stickers of yes, we cannot rationalize of our expenditures. we have been historically unable to move

on to the hard fiscal measures that would be very painful in the short term, but that for us, in the long term in the pursuit of protecting the consumer from inflation and are handling the repeat study and the floating rate and starts with markets, the parts of the enterprises are operating on a huge loss of one sofa and we didn't get to. yeah. what, why is that? why is that situation? i mean, is, is it to do with politics? is it to do with the fact that the governments want to give people a sleep number in the show knowing that it's going to cause a long time game? absolutely, and i would say an investor mostly can a back the up on this. this is not something for you to use the word perennial and that word is actually very accurate. this is not a problem that exists with a particular political setup or a party in the country. this is across the board. the last political party that was in charge up until may of 2022. the bug decided that he can solve, for example, led by former prime minister, him on the phone,

is in my you can be of the same issue, isn't the same. uh, you know, the fact is that let us towards the path of economic doing right before is allister, recognizing that a vote of no confidence control and not committed. but i would very much talk economic suicide by the, this huge fume subsidy, that costs a national exchequer north of somewhere around $250000000000.00 the piece a month simply to provide relief to the public. and to ensure that his popularity stayed as high as it was. and since then, since the new power has come in this, i am a still has been in the work since september of last year. but because of decisions made by this government, because if you don't put a decision, as well as policies and statements, i would say that are counter productive as well as not in the interest of the general public. and certainly not in the interest of the social contract. the program has been delayed quite literally to with last possible date of june 30th, which is around the way it was announced that the treatment in know is going ahead

. so yeah, i'm back to frontier leisure and politics is very much at the center about so that loaded with your thoughts spent on november's election. you, you talked about governments continually kicking the can down the road. what are the implications of the election for this, this loan, which i think we've already established as a short term fix. is there any danger that progress on good, renee is on the deal off to the election and what are the implications of benefit those? i think the danger is actually before the election because we still have a few months to go. when this government has to relinquish part and then hand over under the constitution to get a government. so i think there's a in and present danger that the administration of prime minister shall bosher leave, begins to resort to election gimmicks because they know that why uh, troubleshooting if is digging credits to for

a vote in the default. they also know that there are the delay in the i meant program, the delay in taking why is it cannot make decisions has come at a huge cost to focus of the economy. plus, i think the kind of economic mismanagement we've seen in the last year. and of course previously as well, has meant that inflation has really faded into the cost of living prices that you spoke of agent. and that is going to have a election cost for this government. so i think on the one hand, there is a risk that the present government, we start taking measures that can up and actually the i'm a program. the other risk is that the new government, whatever government is elected, is going to be able to be taught the thought. because what we have seen is that focus on economic crisis of really being rooted and it's governance crisis, where we've had the reform of us lead politically aids that are just not interested

in economic reform. and unless there is a white or white skin, a sweeping economic measures and reforms, the concern would not be able to get in to get out of this vicious cycle of high budget and balance of payments deficits. rising debt. and of course, chronic foreign exchange prices, which have led to repeated i'm, it's been out, it's, uh, so the order picks up is the, is going to play into the economics and economics also uh, you know, the doing to defend and obviously the extra company link, the economics is already playing into the, you know, possible cost to the political future of this who and, and coordination of this $1.00 i've got to bring in a bunch of leo from shotwell, he's a cabinet minister of commerce industry and technical education in kind of a practical or providence, good teddy with this minister, and best of the lady was,

was talking about a government's a bit truly and focused on living beyond the means. what does practiced on need in terms of a long term fix for its economy in your opinion, to especially thank you for having me and as the very need for it. we have got it yesterday. it's a very literally a half inches long, and i have a very long standing lead. i think we're going to get to the bottom. you end up probably going to get 1000000000 next month. hopefully in the next 66 or 9 months. we're going to have for the inside and deliver base. so uh, let me talk about the rules of that, the pro 5, but that's ok. the market, the stock market wouldn't be stable for, for much better for monday on word in tron law. and after that, the rupees, perhaps on the stability, the charge of the board has been valerie and the senate, the rest of the market and the business community will be very positive, stopping from next what we control. but in the long term, if you look into it,

the installation factor, which is the consumer, the livelihood of the people are going to be disturbed. because the conditionality is have a way to add the full level. this tribute is not going to be enough along focused on to be off the liabilities. number one fail via the light bands and the fail. oh, the see of miles because one thing might happen. good stopping from the coming week is that the, as has been with have been people have the payment to mature the n c. they both up son is not export on the phone. we bucks on his import or the song or whatever the export 40 plus along the bank has to be imported. so i think the are we have to look into it and there has been business phone me and the vendor and the provincial level. and so, but done, do that, we must and reassessed, we sure can, we must bring all started the union, the functioning of the boardman because at this very moment, the spelling is very lovely street. so i think we have to look into that. so when

also number one, number 2 is bad, then we have to come up with the program by continuing the business community dental goes rendition that this is what does it. because the amount of x rays shows we have some, if it's gone, cause like the virus prompting that base about if you want to start the businesses, maybe turn the different textures which they have to pay. so i think it'd be really have to work on the best thing f, b i from abroad and be have to the main. so existing business depot a lot already doing business and funds on that visit other than that. okay. after flight, they must be fed, they shouldn't bring that captured back what they have, send it abroad in for. but i'm interested in a regular check because i'm just on this next. but nature's not goes down of the government at the moment or better. and the revenue does not jack. so i think this problem in the mail they are using edge certified giant or so i think this will be there. and so i the yes i agree. i agree. it has been there. all right. but like i

said, the governments have to work very hard about the body. a dungeon label mentioned foreign direct investment. the just having high important is how vital to text onto economy is foreign direct investment and, and will this load at least give other nations some confidence that they can safely invest in the country? now i think the key is to create the right political and economic environment to interest investors. we have a situation where our indigenous business community isn't investing. so if they're not investing, how can we expect to increase f d a which is not doing all the time? know in the last couple of years. so what is needed is a stable environment, a business environment that is lifted and consistent. and we also need political

parties to assure us that they will not be policy changes, because i think the one thing that drives investors away is when they see that there's no point investing long term capital in the country where the rules of the game changed. so often, so i think, you know, talk of f d i right now, frankly for me, is a bit of a buying this guy. unless we get the basics, right. it's very difficult to see how many kind of significant form direct investment would it be possible. and yet, of course, agent, you're absolutely right. a box on like any other country, desperately needs this. a big problem is our external account. and the fact that, you know, i'm for some orthodontics board, so we have direct payments to meet and are, you know, remittances from overseas of workers. we, we use those, of course, that helps us in filling the financing, gab or,

and external account. but we also need to, yeah, and i'm afraid the quote has not been very, very encouraging. and that in recent years or zation, what are the main drivers of text stats economy right now, is it fair to make comparisons with india is economy, which of course continues to, to power ahead. and if any is, is doing so why isn't focused on what is practiced on need to do to get its economy out of the doldrums and didn't to shape a shape like india is i think you've hit the nail on the head when i think that is the central question, a lot of the conversation in the last day and will be for the next week, including from the hon minister and other individuals will be about how this isn't in some way is a cause for celebration. i'm sure it is. we want to avoid default the people to improve against the daughter. absolutely. there will be some level of confidence building and both in the national markets and to the best of markets. but this is by no means a long term solution. there are 3 sources of income per box when it comes to the external account name's the same thing, so it's

a foreign dark investment and then what exports and we are failing and all the funds. so one of the 1st things we have to do, of course, is to improve the metrics and all 3 areas. and other issue is the fact that our revenue is, are very, very low. there's a very small percentage of progress findings that actually ends up paying taxes. and that's primarily because bucks on is very much a cash based economy. a lot of the transactions that happen in the country do not really fall into the purview of any kind of regulatory bodies or the central bank. and by virtue of that, this fall underneath the radar, there are some efforts not being made to digitize the economy to try and, you know, capture a larger chunk of the, the larger tax amount from various sources. but what that ends up really doing is it squeezes those that are already inside the tax, but instead of improving and expanding tax net. and the best thing to do is to fix our believe a state of the enterprises, everything from airlines to railways, the national highway authority, certain power authorities, as well as

a certain steamboat. and in addition to that, i would say every one of the things that we really kind of have to look at is something that a master movie has already looked at or spoken about. and that is we, when there's some little instability and policy instability in the country where you have foreign companies leaving box on the left, right, and center. because of that environment when you have a hyper obstructionist, any hyper risk averse baracus. when you have the kind of environment which is not conducive to conducting business fairly quickly and the speed really, that is good to bring in the kind of investment, the kind of confidence a little to call you in literally dollar terms direct investment. the country means i'll pick this in the simplest terms possible. one of the biggest problems with the chinese have been focused on, for example, in terms of investment kids is that they just want their contractors to be able to do work. they want be a function of policies, a box on to be taken out of the equation so that what they need to do under the agreement that have already been fords can happen. and the real danger for that as

a bathroom movie also has already highlighted, is that there is a historical presidency of going back on our work and changing the stipulations under which we agreed to certain law firms or foreign direct investment or any kind of bilateral agreements and as long as the instability exists, both on the policy and the political front american best funding, fixing some of the larger structural issues and the economy is more dramatic, like a bunch of little at, let's pick up on, on what section i was just saying that about political instability, if the country continues to be politically unstable, there's very little chance of it becoming economically stable. is that ok? i totally agree. what has been said, it's just not because of the, let's say, if any country is not a bridge, it can stay because it has the stability and economic stability. and obviously there's going to be a problem the and this is a problem upside of this facing from the last few years. i think the one meeting

with joshua on me is a solution and all the political bosses, mazda insured, said, for the sake of this country, they must say, to make this country a violent. the trick is moment guaranteed because because a lot of provincial, i think we have a prevention for done it on the 10th. but i think the main problem is a straight forward as a stay focused on not trusting each other. i think you're still in need of the data because my, i'm a part of the f b. she said, which is a for additional bucks i general phone was industrial. i was from and remember them back. so i'd be able to educate the, on leasing that we have, we're giving the like presentation and we are talking to the right up in the, in the front, the levels and the boeing's level. then this is that we need this thing, the business community and the number of because it really be and that's what i've been trying to inquire. we haven't been trying to bring to ease of bringing business on the basically what kind of problem on that leg. and otherwise i think the people liked or done finishes in charlotte, i wouldn't be able to carry on this. these are big business is a very successful man looking probably to well, so i think the 1st of the

a bucks on depends on the political, electronic stability and best of the loaded. we talked to those about, about political stability. what about insecurity? the an and an is how much of a drain that is on pakistan to economy and military spending to how much of, of, of pakistan's g d p is it's spending on the military right now as well. i think, you know, it's a combination of factors. agent and you're right to identify some of the other factors as well. but i do think that one of the, you know, what is really needed is that, is that a form is government that sort of looks at the, you know, it has a full spectrum view as a true of all the issues that you know, your other, a guest civil and so i didn't define and i've also tried to identify so you're right. why is security and the challenges that focus on faced from terrorism. and of course, from the long war in the neighborhood and the finest on 20 years of that war went

on naturally the phone out on focused on was adverse. and that wasn't going to attract investment when people were and sure. uh, you know, the extent to which this wall was spinning over into pakistan's, the prospect hassan voters into bits of a. it is a habit of 2 o'clock and to try to try to prevent. but i think to a large extent, focused on, has effectively managed uh the issue of terrorism. and although yes, the tester security questions. but i think the main um, sort of if, if i can put it back to the mean in the me, off of economic stability is doubling politics and the inability of how political leaders to agree and even it more of some kind of an economic vision for focus on i think the rest of the problems can still be bizarre. but unless you have

elected leaders who show responsibility. oh, that's okay to talk to them because all they think about is the next election and how they can get the watch. but if we have to resort focus on problems on a sustainable basis and focus on on a bulk of sustainable growth, then you need to ship aspect is key. i can think of no country that has made economic progress. that didn't have a leadership in place that was committed to long term economic measures, and that had a capable team to assist it. so i think these are very important factors. also, unfortunately, the public deals political leadership and focus on has contributed enormously to. they cannot make this decision, i'm picking up on what the ambassador was saying that i mean, how do you put that sort of that sort of political team together and then sell it

to the electorate. a building political consensus in the box on adrian to this point is a very difficult task box that is currently going to what we can call the poly prices. there's a lot of existential prices that have sort of know that together and that amalgamation as treated huge issues from august on and put it in the point that historically, it's never really, truly been in before. there's a political crisis, there is an institutional prices. there's a constitutional crisis, we have prices related to the economy, security and climate change. and what i find fascinating is that whenever we speak about economy in this country, the amount of building political consensus, one of the things that we always leave out is that about that of climate change. this agreement would be with the interest for $3000000000.00. the floods that happen in box on the last year in june, september costs of the country of $30000000000.00. that's 10 times be about $1700.00 plus people buy $1400000.00 light stock was given. a 3rd of this country entry to satellite imagery confirmed this was underwater. a 3rd of the country was

effectively the climate change is one of the biggest special crisis companies facing. and it was going to be a resource drain. and the bulk of it, of the responsibility of it, they squarely lies with a developed nations that have created the kind of plummet prices that exist in the country right now. the world bank, for instance, has been producing reports since the beginning of this year are related to the comic prices. there's a company in columbus memorandum. there's a climate change in development report. there's the public expenditure reports, the middle ones, the climate change, a development report, states that parks, palm beach, somewhere north of $200000000000.00 between now and the end of 2030 in order to meet as part of finance. and we don't have a fraction of this month. imagine what happens when it comes. we like focus on the population of over 232000000. so far as the adverse effects of climate change to the point them, the stress on the system collapses. the governing structure, you have to 132000000 people with mass urban migration, international migration,

refugee management, and a range of host of other issues. the world truly need to pay attention. okay, this is the part and parcel of that the comic price. i'd love to contend them as a, as a silly question. i'm sorry to, to, to interrupt you. one final, very quick question to invest with already picking up on, on what decision was was, was saying that does the international community, but at least some obligation to it shouldn't be obliged to, to help breakfast on right now, given organization was saying, but if you're getting help with another from the lender of last resort in the i'm ask but, but should the international community be shipping into? whereas i think already the international community depends what you mean by the international community. i think china has stood by focused on it's a door to door to the number of the knows that the majority and that to get focused on physical space. so there may be a helped they chipped in the u. e. also a tipton, so one can't say the international community hasn't helped focused on,

but i think the real question is how much can focus on help itself? it cannot keep looking tied to resolve problems which brought its own problem. okay . all right, a rest of them. so i'm sorry to cut you short, we're out of time. a many thanks indeed to all of you for being with us today. i've done julio position. so her being at our best of the really hello to you and thank you for watching. so if you get, you can see the program again at any time by going to the website that i was 0 dot com for further discussion. join us on facebook page, you'll find that at facebook dot com forward slash h a inside story and you can join the conversation on twitter handle at a inside story for me, avery and so they can have a whole team here. we'll see you again, bye for now the the

people have no way to build the workforce out of their neighborhoods because of a fighting going on between rival gang, what he's offering nothing about special forces where they are for the special forces this area used to be filled with people, but as you can see right now, it looks like a war zone. this is the largest hospital in haiti, and it has been barely working for the past 5 months. as a missionary fair or the barbecue has created what is known as the g. 9, it's a federation of dams and it's one of the most powerful here. this road connects the communal fit to be with an other area that is not far away and were told that it was being used by against the people that had been kept up with more than 1400000000 people,

india has become the world's most populous country 101 east investigates the nation's population explosion on i'll just say around the i don't carry johnston in de la with the top stories now on the houses their place in phones have arrested more than 700 people during a 5th consecutive nights of writing following the police, the shooting of a teenager interior minister says the violence was less intense. and on previous nights, the se thing of a teenager by a police officer on tuesday, spot interest. but it's, but it's has more now from paris. it was quiet the overnight, across, friends,

not least because of a major policing effort more than 45000 police deployed nationwide, principally here in paris and in most states and.