[000:00:00;00] the why did turkey change his mind on sweden's nato membership at this year's summit, the alliance is set to expand as it faces new security challenges. so how will this change the geo political landscape in europe? this is inside story,

the hello and welcome to the program. i'm how much in june and lithuania, some of the world's top leaders are discussing the future of nato. after repeatedly blocking sweden's membership, turkey a says it's now ready to support it. rushes invasion of ukraine has served to strengthen the alliance that's frustrating moscow's territorial expansion and attempts to broaden its inputs. so how is nato changing the power dynamic across europe? and how will president vladimir put in to respond? we'll explore these issues with our guests in a moment. but 1st, this report by katya lopez for the young, the warring ukraine has changed nato's relevance, particularly as european governments, the greater security, your excellency sweden's efforts to join the military alliance have been blocked by true to you for more than a year. but now president regent type or the one has agreed to back it then j,

gillian. we will open the weiss's weight and just as we did for finland, express this to president job boston, and i have to underline it's a guy in here. we expect to visit from president, let him a post in the next month. if this visit to took it takes place. we will also discuss the black sea greenville. u. s. has in dallas that attempts to send dozens of new f, 16 fighter jets to do key a move it's previously health off on washington says, all this the strengthening the military alliance. soon we will be able to say that since this war began since russian dated ukraine, we have, well, we'll have welcome to new members of nato with strong military's expanding both the size and the strength of the alliance. ukraine says it has earned the right to join nato by fighting a fight. you're a pass sought to avoid. but the alliance considers an attack on one member as an attack on all, and us president joe biden says, ukraine,

joining nato now could have disastrous consequences on a going to come under. moscow has warned, it's monitoring the summit and carefully normal when you block or you nature, welcome spelling, and so we didn't, but not ukraine. why? this is a question that should be addressed. we see multi 1000000000 dollar aid packages given to you, crane by nature states. so why the hesitation to joining the alliance, which is up until a few years ago, nato was seen by many as a defunct alliance, lacking purpose. but now it appears to be re shaping tool politics in europe and beyond katia a little bit so the again for insights story. all right, for more on all of this, i'm joined by our guests in washington, dc is robert hunter, former us ambassador to nato and senior fellow at the center for transatlantic relations at johns hopkins university in brussels, is month to extreme senior policy fellow at the european council on foreign

relations didn't stumble. is it st on old guns? former took his diplomat and senior fellow at carnegie. you're a warm welcome to you want and thanks so much for joining us today on inside story . robert, let me start with you today. how important is it that may tow display units see at the summit and how much unity is there right now, amongst may told members well that's the nature of the summit to show you entered a particularly to mr. potent in moscow. and in fact, it's a try to make sure that all a allies are indeed on the same page when it comes to confronting what mr. potent is doing with his war and ukraine. that includes getting each of the allies to made the so called target goal of 2 percent of gross domestic product spent on defense, which is k 2 a 3 year to well actually for next year of that,

that's the point out there is going to be unity on that, that are going to be disagreements. and the basic disagreement is the point at which ukraine will be asked to join a no, it's not going to happen now. and frankly, i don't think it's ever going to happen. but most of the landscape of use of ukraine is pushing very hard to get the strongest commitment he possibly can match . how much has the war in ukraine change nato's relevance and has russia's invasion of ukraine, only served to strengthen the lights without thinking many ways the rest and unity over the ukraine on the supporting ukraine. against that suggestion is impressive. it has been not discussion before on the tv shows both ways and they do it within the european union, but so far there has been unimpressive. unity, i mean, that sounds,

i think it has also started from a to the scene on i'm after repeatedly blocking sweeties. memberships are key, and now it says that it's ready to support it. why? why the change in the decision? what did turkey get in return from demand to the 2 things? one, a, an explicit commitment by sweden to be more discipline regarding the monitoring and prevention, off of the recruitment, fundraising activities offered terrorist lease entities in sweden. and yesterday, d, a. m o u and there was signed, also sets up a by lecture mechanism between trick in sweden. so wanted to this. so this is juan, clear area where things have changed from the tractors perspective. and the 2nd one which will become perhaps more concrete in coming days,

is us commitment to deliver uh the package of f sixteens, which turkey had off onto the new summit. there was no firm commitment on the, on the side of the us administration, claiming that fundamentally it's up to congress to approve this. but now it seems that things have also changed on, and that the us administration has cold turkey sides that this transaction will go through. and this is what has essentially led to the agreement convince, robert you heard seen on there talk about the issue of the f sixteens of us has announced that it will move ahead with the transfer of x f. 16 fighter just to tear key a in consultation with congress. this happened just a day after tequila gave the green light for sweden joining nato. is this what it was bound to come down to? i don't believe there was ever a chance to administer heritage on. would deny sweden

a membership in nato. how we've just been talking about surprise. i one point last week. how mr. on talked about getting back to negotiations for turkey, joining the european union. and that's not going to happen. his as real prize has been, as you're said, to fold for this ways to do more to block kurdish activities with in sweden constructively, to make sure they would get these arms from the united states. if it came down to the end, that's the way it targeted negotiates. it's not the only country that has a smart negotiator. much let me ask you when it comes to sweden joining nato. what kind of a timeline are we looking at when it comes to that happening? and i think that the pounds

a lot of on the talk is no justification procedure and also on the hungry that state has not stratified as well. some people in sweden are hoping for a very, very rapid gratification before the talk is parliament, summer excess. but as far as i understand is more likely to happen during the war to amend the same with the hungry. but often those positions as a matter of base, as i understand it, i'm also not an expert on the us congress, but i might also think that i'm still there is clear public statements from the leadership in the us congress about this f. 16 airplane stop talking, my not to go for the for the occasion before that, but that's just my speculation. seen on the president air. the one has been able to achieve this delicate balance in managing his relationship with nato, as well as his relationship with russian president vladimir putin. now, what circuit agreement to back sweden as a nato member,

as well as president air. the one statement that ukraine deserves membership in nato. how much does that complicate the turkey a russia relationship as it does your right in stating that a turkey has crafted a delicate balance in this forum policy towards russia. ukraine, 10, uh, the nato allies. uh since the beginning of the war. uh, but that's the balance is shifted and we see that very clearly since the end of the electoral cycle in turkey with a number of different develop once a one of them indeed are drawn strongly back in the accession of ukraine. that to nature. but also incidentally when, as your lens t was in char key, he went back home with the commanders of the oswald freight shipment,

who she posted the word to remain in turkey and dental. so electoral reaction must call. and now this also, uh, the, the green light tingle, sweetens accessories, nato. when you take all of that, it, it looks as if the churches pull this young. russia is also shifting as cherokee straining more towards the west, but also as a result of an assessment that russia is weakening both from the ground in ukraine, but also more particularly for puts in, in rushing. so this thing on let me follow up with you on that point is part of this calculation that might be happening now when it comes to present air. dwanda assessment of president putin is part of that. the president air, the one feels perhaps he has more leverage on president putin, after this mutiny that was stage by the wagner group. i mean, does president air the one for see president clinton to be more of a weekend figure right now? yes, i would. i would say so, not just because of the uprising in russia,

but generally today turkey is the only nature country that has a high level of political engagement with russia. it's the only natural country that does not so much instructions against russia. the air corey though remains open. so this has become even more valuable for russia. it's russia is the increasing the isolate. and that provides leverage for, for turkey. and i want to re shift the balance of this relationship with russia. robert, when it comes to president biden's presence at the summit, obviously he's working is walking bit of a diplomatic type rope here. he's a lot that he has to balance. how much concern is there among nato members right now about upcoming elections in the us and 20? $24.00. how much worry is there that perhaps a figure like donald trump could be re elected, or that

a g o p white house when next year could shatter nato going forward? have to remember it's a long time between now and the your selections, hopefully already have everybody talking about them. and it's not even clear that mr. trump will fee the republican nominates. there has been some weakness on the if that's the right word. on the republican side for continuing to spend as much money on the ukraine war. and the allies may wonder about that. but what mr. barton is doing is making sure everybody knows that's united states is locked in to supporting ukraine as much as is required short of a direct, military confrontation with russia to help your kind do as much as possible. and as far as not really about your current joining nato, it's about solidarity by the lions to push back against russia. henworthy,

united states being firmly committed on that. there is really no further doubt that that's going to happen. it's just the water. they've been muddied by the question about whether you're crying when you're creating with joy nato. but the solidity of us a part for ukraine has been made clear by the president of the united states. and that is the thing that matters at nato mats. it keeps accept that it will not be able to join nato while at war with russia. but how much consensus is there right now, my nato members, that ukraine would be able to join when the war ends and what are the hurdles to that happening? well, i think uh uh there are various divisions within they do on that. this has been publication reported with the us and you, i'm going to taking a more cautious line and i think we have a lot to read that will be statements under the joint uh

decorations. uh so let's give it a reset the night to something. but tonight i understand that, but i think we would not really know that until divorce. so we're, i'm, we know how that outcome looks. uh, the language now wouldn't be more general about the long term process. so that membership, but not with any concrete promises. but if they're, for example, it would be a negotiated aldacon which ship people don't want to talk about where i shut somehow or it stays to try me. uh, it might be rather difficult for a to, to allow your trade into the light, you know, so with that situation still there, i don't know, we will see robert. i saw your nodding along to some of what months was sitting there and it looked like you wanted to jump in. so please go ahead. well, i'm kind of a loaner on this. i don't think your crane is ever going to join nato because it, it's an absolute consensus of all 31 countries. and right now i say,

and how to states in germany or out in the front put a lot of countries are hiding behind them. notably, france and, and the united kingdom. and when it comes down to it, a decision by individual countries to be willing to go to war for ukraine to declare war on russia if it were true, after the war to renew fighting against ukraine is just something that many of the olives are just not going to to shows us as a distraction. the basic thing at this moment is to show unity of purpose and unity of action in terms of what's actually done, not just words, to oppose the russian aggression. how far that would have to be pushed back before the vision of serious negotiations is a matter of a of a debate. i suspect in the final analysis, a rush you will have if not permanent gains in crime, in

a shirt away, a special relationship. there is, i will go on a for the indefinite future match. i saw you reacting now to what robert was saying, did you want to jump in as well? well, i can agree to a lot of that, and that's what i'm saying to make these declarations. i don't know the way they how i dr. can 5 security. got these, but i also want the us to emphasize that the massive support that need to has given through your train so far. i'm the new company trans now. well, i'm saw there, right? but as their neighbor is from cross, for example, and also jo many now today i think so. so i mean launch and not under estimate of the kinds of support that they do is giving you training to win this more so so that the sort of some expression i think common sort of data there with your train as seen on let me get your perspective and all this nato membership is something that can take decades to achieve ukraine once a commitment to, for

a much quicker timeline. is that something that can actually happen to some extent it can because there's a discussion as we speak and natal, about whether listing of the requirements of 1st offering a membership action plan, which was the pathway for past enlargements can also be, can be done for ukraine. because the step condition is lifted, the then what would these be talking about? a more accelerated timeline for ukraine. membership, pro wise is that there is a consensus with the nature of for an enlargement to you and say down. let me also ask you um, from your vantage point, how is nato changing the power dynamic across europe right now? off to the war in ukraine, of course, nato has come to the forefront as the main guarantor of

european security. it's become clear that despite many efforts since the burgeoning over your ip security can defense identity, your opponent song is not going to be able to provide for these type of hardcore security guarantees for euro or for the neighborhood of you. and therefore, we've seen very clearly countries for meeting themselves even more from the true nature accepting to fulfill the 2 percent spending at the threshold. countries like squeeze and then send them to the after many, many decades of neutrality wants to join nature. a country like germany who for historical reasons and had not had no significant defense budgets, accepting to upgrade their defense commitments. so, and ultimately the, all of these, all of these countries and all of these the golf funds are strengthened in nature. those role in europe for, for the security of the content. robert,

what are nato leaders most concerned about right now and, and what would cause the most disagreement among member nations now is one of the biggest concern right now is solidarity against russian aggression, which is to continue prosecuting the war as far as is necessary. one thing that is not being discussed, maybe not even in private. here's what does that mean in practical terms when people talk about are ukranian victory. so far mr. button has been extremely careful about providing just for the for up and ready and getting other countries to provide web and right to help ukraine prevail on the immediate battlefield. but not to give them so much as they could actually drive a russia into a corner by b, let's say, pushed entirely out of a chest, the disputed region,

and they mainly have to say, mainland ukraine but also and cry man. so there has to be a balance stock there. so that is the real issue here at the summit. wells therapy solidarity in doing that. a swedish issue is always this side issue a when and if you're creating the actually joins nato is also another side issue. it's important, critical has the present and i just, i just made clear the other day to have mr. pruitt and get the message that he will not be able to crack the will of nato. and that the battle will continue until he gets that message and is willing to negotiate something less. and he has been demanding mats here. and robert, there, talk about the message that nato would like to convey to president putin. moscow, a has warrant that it's monitoring the summit carefully. what kind of

a response do you think we might see from president put in going forward? what i'm thinking, the current situation is options are all very limited. if you go back now to the ballistics c area, and so he done that seamless accession, rush of us threatening different kinds of actions down there. but it's certainly changed there, made it through post jury in that area. but for now, the draft from the army in particular is so designated by the board and do crating back to their options are not that big. but uh, i am sure that they are considering all their options and we do have both in the us. they do also as some job mountains, that dog all they're close to, to russia and we're having to come in. yeah. an extra names to lock. yes. well, this is not the kind of, i mean,

this is more in france at that as he'd done. but i think that cost aging, very many options, but that their ability not always stop the payment to see not i'd like to talk for a few more minutes about how much concern there is among some nato nations when it comes to promises a potential membership to ukraine is, is the fear essentially, that this would give russia and incentive to both escalate and to drag out the war . well, there's that, but also there's a more long term issue of, uh, basically whether ukraine's territorial integrity can be guarantee. and because indeed, we don't know what sort of political sets of months will emerge are often the war. hopefully it will emerge in a way that guarantees ukraine territory, the integrity. but if it does not, for instance, of crime, if the,

if russia decides to not even negotiate the states of crimea, for instance, that's going to be a huge issue for nato because the countries will need to enter nature with their full territorial integrity. that's also somewhat the case for georgia. so that's the way also a big concern. but i just want to come back to the question that you would ask them best they're hunter. i think the biggest concern today in your boss nature is about the future of us politics. and this is something that you already alluded to a moment ago because the european leaders have experienced the trump era. they saw how trans hall trump had actually gone this far as descriptive. the credibility of article 5. and now there is another prospect which is about china and taiwan. so a different us government, the that would have other proclivities might very soon turn into, but to east asia,

and therefore it would also be um, an impediment to her all nature deterrence that the time when war in the center of europe is still continuing. so that's one of the major concerns that you hear in europe about the future of nato to match up until a few years ago. nato was seen by a lot of people as well. some would say growing lee in effective uh, maybe not as important as it had been in the past, but now it seems to be a moment where it stature is changing a lot. that's re shaping geo politics in europe and beyond. how much has the perception of nato changed in the moment that we're in right now? yes, i think you're right there in that the test chain stand it as shown us. we have discussed the unit the uh, in supporting ukraine as,

but that is for now if you see this as a long term process, i agree, it will also depend on what the next to us president will do. and there is over at the end of the discussion within the european night to allies, the air of the need to be able to more of their own capabilities spot them, they do. but also because of the more general view is trees towards a shy and the pacific region. the so how the peak should we look on? they do, we don't know the outcome of the rough sort over your credit. and of course, hopefully that will be a week 3 of a kind for it, for ukraine. i found that to be that made to ask these kind of beta to now, but i still think these challenges remain that were discussed the last few years ago. i was on the, the trump administration of the long term address daily, and so the alliance. all right, well we have run out of time, so we're going to have to leave the conversation there. thanks so much to all of

our guest, robert hunter, months angstrom. and cnn, olga, and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website. i'll just 0, don't com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a j inside story. you can also, during the conversation on twitter handle is at a inside story from him. how much improvement holding here, bye for now, the the investigative journalism. this was a very and as hard as guy,

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