the gate is not dry, heavy way, and in the south, once small as in provence and down to karachi every day and pulls once more. probably welcome the 2 stories, strong willed, challenging, traditional female stereotype in the male dominated society to make a difference. if i go how some of these look like this is highly contaminate to believe in the class, the risk in it all out. is there a full spain shift to the right state surface? probably minutes to face this serious challenges in the elections. his policy as those in regional poems. so we'll cover essentially be able to maintain power houses being watched across the rest of europe. this is inside story,

the hello welcome to the program. and so he'll robin, spain is heading to the polls. the socialists and the prime minister, petro essentially so facing off against the center, right? people's policy, and the other, back to noon, as a fish, who. but it's the influence of small the policies that could prove decisive eve of the far left or the far right to the 2nd to be part of a coalition. government is part of the trends that's repeating itself across europe . now we'll get to all gas. anybody with us, this report from fence and motor and the leader of spain's opposition senses opportunity. a disaster is showing by the government and local elections in may as

paints the path for alberto, newness fail of the center, right people's party to become the next prime minister. as the nation has towards national polls, he believes momentum is on his side. no court. the local read the yet calling snap elections doesn't tight. what's happened? spaniards have said enough. we had enough i think and volumes that this feeling is translated into a clear people's bhakti victory. not prime minister pedro sanchez, a socialist at the center, left his maple with the biggest gambles of his political career by going snap elections. he's hoping to get a new mandate, but more than 5 years in power because he was popularity. wayne high unemployment for the 13 percent is a major concern on voters. his agenda on social issues like transgender rights has also divided the opinion and pass legislation. he's have to rely on support from politicians and the rest of the basque and capital on regions. that's allowed

opponents painting of ally of separative give sanchez, it's remaining power. you'll likely need to enter a coalition with yolanda diaz. few leads and the lines of parties on the far left the far right also have a role to play the box party under santiago, all of us go ways to be the central coalition partner for people's party government . this is that through that detail by debate. sanchez said, the choice was clear what i mean. they look for them as soon as it will look for them as they are. they will be their own to formations for 2 ways to govern government of the progressive coalition of the socialist party with the party of for yolanda diaz for a government deluxe party. and i'm not afraid to say so if i can all go in with mrs . diaz, it's clear that you have 2 different organizations where large parties at the center once dominated, movements on the fringes are becoming difficult to ignore a pass and repeating across europe. the results of spain's election may provide

further signs of where the continent just headed bends and monahan for inside story the well, let's bring it all guess. will this edition of inside story and madrid. jose maria, but need to president of the governance and society institute invalid ebony, showtime, a full messiah of the institute of covered 12 defense who specializes in the rise of popular spa write policies in europe. and in london, the pablo capital martinez, associate professor of politics and international relations at northeastern university. very well, welcome to all of i guess on this edition of inside story jose, can i begin with you in madrid? why would petro sanchez bring for the election so soon? after municipal defeats, i mean time is a great healer. he could have stretched this out to reassure the public in spain until at least december, and that he is the leader to trust. but he hasn't gone for that option. why,

as well as you can dis, buses, every body still on the, on the show, many people use on party probably he was tearing dogs some all see a position. we think he's old, but the codes found out and eventually become kind of this to his own. i can do to see this one on the cycle. also, he expected to, uh, you know, take advantage of the quick decision on how to position, knock the for the election. i'm to, but he was also from the government that he has done to recreate the last big stream live. that's true, of course. and natalie, do you see that for the patient yolanda? the who she has really rolled into the into the c and d 's was piece to reset. ok, let's,

let's us the 2nd customer. the top of the bottom is this is the 2nd question really, but it's a real gamble for sun trust a yes i think to an extent this is a gamble, i think is a calculate the gamble. and i thing, whatever we think of federal essentially, i think he's proving himself to be a candidate political operator over the last few years and we'll see what happens. i think i agree with with somebody in the face analysis, but i also think it's a calculate a gamble because i think that it was such as good of easily predicted that a time can be a great healer. but in governments particular, the government does bidding impose for a good number of years, the wear and tear of carpeting stars to make take effect. so i was thinking was trying to avoid that to some extent. and really, to some extent, i think he was calling the blocks of the spanish people to some extent and say, if this is really what you want, the new ones are arriving collision in governments. and you have to go to a general election and back it up so i think it's a gamble effect. i'll give. ready gamble,

and obviously we wouldn't know if he'd work, so not until monday. indeed. i believe she'll try sir. let's speak to him. but do you have an overview really of what's going on in europe? i mean, holding snuff elections is nothing new. is it any european capital, at least of all spain, but what's at stake here is political survival, as well as is massive issues such as the economy, the cost of living, fuel prices, immigration, and everything else in between. right? this is, this is a moment where you are seeing, you know, as you mentioned, this is about piedro sanchez's political survival. it is, it is a referendum on his time and government and his governing coalition. and yet, at the same time, this is a moment where we are seeing a lot of these, these core issues that you mentioned manifesting in, in countries all across europe. and so when we look at some of the broader trends toward shifts to the right that we've seen in a handful of countries over the last year. this is, it really fits within the sort of broader fabric of some of the, the things happening across the continent. just your opinion, do you think he's taking your gamble? a sure. i think it's a, it's a, it's a calculator, gamble as, as a,

as problem because emory of mentions it's, it is a chance to say essentially to call to call the electrodes bluff and say here's, here's the alternative. the alternative is as we are seeing in, for example, finland or sweden or a handful of other countries across europe. here is the right wing alternative. is that really what you want, or are we going to sort of move forward and give him and his, his coalition another option. another chance to, to continue in office is a jose let me bring you back in mid range because obviously we know we're talking about options. we talk about the rights of politics, the left of politics, the right. the politics here is about the conservatives and the allies who are leading in the polls of the, by what they did very well in the may local in municipal elections. what do they offer to the public in spain? but suntrust is government doesn't talk for right now. no headboard, since they start you selection. this is

a rejection by direct right off track mentation on holidays ation. if you see the polls we're going to see the witness. most likely it's all coming back to the 2 main parties. so by often bipartisanship, which was the um, you know, the trends in the spice politics since the democratic transition throughout the page is 90. something really awesome. uh was uh, overcome by the falling to and due to the police you can see all the english and some books to extremes. but now of weeks he's really, you know, they couldn't come back to the center. and i think that um a few of the, the whole is giving to the electorate this the sense all, well, the ration that these really very much i look for. okay. bye

bye. important part of the electronics. so no one have these, these, these are addiction of extreme politics, which i think is positive. one should not deny the fact that se sanchez has been govern me with this child support for the most. and the most us really manage to get through. most of all trades, i would say, rather politics and, you know, this spanish topic up large ones. yes. feels up to some of the ones that have, you know, more motivated plenty take. so i think this is what the people put out of the whole is given to them know, a popular color, lots and as in london, what's really interesting about the politics of spain right now is that every political party is saying we want to win the election to talking like independent parties, yet the pundents as the panelists, they are talking about the conservative policy and on the box policy playing

chicken with each other the the trying to act like independence. but they know the final outcome is that they're going to have to work together to oust petro essentially is that is the inevitable outcome. they just wasting time and insight in columbus. let's just work together as well. i don't think it's necessary to wasting time. i don't think any opposition either could afford to say like, well, we're not going to win the election, right? because then if this in front of this on both of these on based on base. so he has to say these, they both have to say. ready that i think on the left that the difference with the left is of course that they have been working together with well that most and not with some model. and obviously it's a lot harder for better than just the comments that like golf course. i would never girlfriend with, with the far left parties or with somebody because they're already doing that. it's a lot easier to sort of cold that blah, front to, to sort of foster if you've never done it before. so the has pretty much what the popular popularity says trying to do and explain to the i don't necessarily agree

that what we're saying is every time to center politics. i think we're basically in some ways we haven't really move forward in the last 100 years of all spanish history, which we're seeing basically to very clearly defined blocks that are left for to the rights that are becoming amongst themselves. even more politicize and more, more extreme, but i think that he studies the danger here that we're seeing is yes, the 2 main parties of the sensor. i'm going to be getting gaming the, the, the share of the vote, the largest share of the vote, whether the dp or the, or the social is spotty. but at the same time, it seems to me that they are becoming less than the able to have a conversation between then and it seems at the extreme start coming back to dominate the discussion of spanish politics. and i think that's very, very dangerous. yeah, it really was finding through both of those and so, so i'd like to come back to you because you can analyze perhaps the left extreme and the extreme right. so when it comes to spanish politics, i mean in terms of spain's particular scenario, how much of these extreme parties all getting into play?

the king maker, if the election turns out the way we think it says it's going to be a coalition on the sport. smola policies are the ones that are actually going to decide to might become prime minister. all right, i think that's the thing. and as you pointed out, there's the rhetoric that you hear up until the pool is closed. and then there's the rhetoric that you hear from these parties the day after, once the dust has settled and you know, who has what percentage and which coalitions might be possible. and so, you know, i think for, if we're speaking specifically about the right, you have this, this dilemma of trying to make sure that you reassure your centrist folders that you are not on the extreme. and at the same time, if we want to talk about the impact of a party like fox of the, of a, for a party, then you've got the actual impact so that they may end up having on governing if they end up in a governing coalition. but you also have the impact on the campaign rhetoric on the political rhetoric on the atmosphere. and i think both in spain and in other countries across europe. you see that these kinds of parties have an outsized

impact on what topics are being discussed, how they're being discussed. and so if we look at the campaign period, at least that is one area where you, you can see that beyond someone's a go to in the polls beyond how much you know, what percentage they end up getting on election day. they are really being able to impact that debate and that discussion. lots of little topics and discussions that we want to have about the issues. one of the issues is the session. isn't pablo? sorry, uh, jose back in madrid. the covering truly entire relation has worked with secessionist parties to try and get the government policy through parliament. we see not about bringing the cuts alone politicians on board of the basks as well. what sort of effect has this sort of coalition agreement working to get that had on the side of the spanish people when it comes to regional policies, working with a national government what i see, i would differentiate there between, you know,

mortgage regional are these on the screen dependencies and the problem with a ton. so i think this has really, i think that seem very negatively. we'd like to right is that he has being supported in most of his main legislation by he's extreme independent base. so we have a bill which is, you know, the way to go a successor to, to the end that's already screw. and we have also on the cut that inside the pool, we finally got the, which also comes from the extreme. we probably the left working very closely. we said that i know, you know, i think these pieces really one of the points that is going to be quite besides, if you can do sex. even listen to this phone call. it is a socialist party. there have been so many improvements for people and just, you know, all the people by default to have be criticized incentive strongly

on these decisions. some of the support i have gotten from these trading independent based groups. probably let me just extend that question then because you had nothing in agreements as well. i think because obviously we saw that 2017 fail bates for independence in the consulate and region it sol pipes, pains, most serious domestic crisis is i'm one does wonder how much of an effect that has had in the way that politicians speak about to united spain and the spain's everyone to yeah, i think it's obviously the legacy of that very strong independence is movement in, in got saloon. yeah. it's still being reverberating in spanish politics today. and i agree with somebody at a probably the most relevant seen by that we're seeing today is that he's very, is relatively easy on the nation for the, for the polite of the party. so the right to criticize this one is government and saying there you go. these are assumption is government that he's supported by

these radical succession his movements and excuse me, sorry, it's a body that does not protect they the unification of the unity of spain as want us, i mean, divisive also, i think that's a main issue that we're seeing here, but on the other hand, the socialist government and the socialist party doesn't have any other alternative because at the end of the day, somebody has to govern somebody has to run the country. and if the electra keeps throwing very similar results with very similar size blocks, at the end of the day, somebody has to make decisions and somebody has to be the prime minister. and if you need the supports from the, uh, the suspension is body. so from wherever you need support, you want to try to get it and that's just the way politics works. the problem for the great extent is obviously they cannot rely of the support from any of the regional responses because it will be in cooperation, most likely. and almost inductively with fox, so that means that the pool of candidates for creating our pollution from the right, it's a lot smarter than it would be from the left. but it all depends on the of the results

. the electro decides to do to throw out and then we'd have to wait and see the calculations of the different bodies. indeed, let's talk about messaging to emily because essentially is criticized full political alliances. we've been talking about the messaging of management messaging, gotten bodies with bailey, as of feminist issues, transgender issues. but he's being praised on economy, the policies that he's laid back after the pandemic. no politician can be one thing to old men and women. you have to choose your battles wisely. and she does too, as do most politicians who are heading towards elections across europe. right, and i think, you know, we've been, as you mentioned, there was a global pandemic we've had now. europe is, is, has been facing, inflation has been facing rise in energy prices due to the war and ukraine. there are other a whole number of sort of global issues that are impacting not just one country, but, but the continent. and in fact, the large parts of the world as

a whole. and so if you are an incumbent leader in these situations and especially if, as we've talked about this has very much become a referendum on, on him and on his leadership. and as his tenure in office, then you need to be able to talk about why people should trust you to continue going and what you've done throughout these crises. and, you know, for that reason, some of the more sort of social, cultural war type issues are much less useful to him. what he needs to be doing is saying i was, was studying hand through these things. i might not have done everything perfectly but, but i can be the person to leave the country through further, you know, further crises or, or whatever, come what may and, and sort of the baseline functions. but the economic issues, things like this are, are a huge core of what people are, are thinking about a popular, comfortable, monthly method london. the lecturing policy is what we talking about. like it did us, uh, the most excuse my spanish pronunciation. and sue bob had sort of merged as we

talked about. so when we found out that, but yet the popularity of that sort of magical, again with sun trust, this policy hasn't been sort of realized properly. has it, why have they lost that support? so i think couple of their last subordinate, sorry, but certainly sort of the support has marriage. so we got some really moving forward as i would've liked. but i think a lot of these relies, and i agree with emily to really send in the short message, and i think a lot of this has to do with this. i found this very surprising. i've always thought of sanchez as a very good politician for sticking over. it would come taking a i think a lot of the calculation of team calling this area to get our election relied on his own experience. the 2nd painter, i always, always managed to sort of come from behind and surprise everybody. so i thought he was going to be able to repeat the truth. but i've been very surprised at how he has been unable to make the election about what he wants the electrons to be about, which is basically its economic record. and he's record sort of dealing with the

crisis. the funds that make underwear and ukraine of the cost of living prices, which has been relatively successful in, in dealing with those crisis. instead, he's being dragged any sort of culture we. busy there's all this issue that a dominating emigration trans, written the right segment is, and i don't this thing is that really he doesn't, we don't want to be talking about because what he wants to be talking about are his successes, particularly in the economy and strong leadership across the world, so very surprised that basically box and the people that are happy enabled to set the agenda of the of the, of the election. and that's what we end up talking about who is a benito in madrid. i mean, the share of the vote to the municipal elections, for example, the concept is what around 71 percent such as the socialists of 28, no of the political party reached double figures turned out. it's got to be very important on sunday, especially when you're a prison in the middle of a heat wave as well. i mean, hardship is all going to impact cuz you can't talk about elections about talking

about what are the hottest issues, which is climate change. and this was one of the most incredible beautiful things, some of these vision of essential to colorado actions. i'd be until july um, you know what it is and, and go do like of course, the holidays, the country and on the way is particularly strong at this very moment in the most of their uses bank and also in the trade. so that even make to my guys much, much friends, except if you wanted to how less mobilize the voltage on the right. but i don't think this is going to be disruptive. you're going to be successful. so it looks like side of the percent of the people are going to 2 volts the many, much more than in the past couple already bolted up

a menu. um and you know, indeed it doesn't make much sense to, to color on an election just, you know, off to the municipal elections and in the music style of the, of the holiday vacation for most of you will be interesting to see what the 10, not as popular boston is, let's just bring it in here because the holes trading is obviously something we just talked about. now, did a public and in state in your analysis of elections over the years. do you get the sense that people in spain, a bold with elections are engaged with the elections, happy with the elections happen? i mean, when you just look up 31 percent and 28 percent, but to not. so these 2 main policies it's, it's what just badly over 50 percent of the eligible electorate as well, i think is the 1st interest of an engagement, happy a different things? happy i'm, i'm not entirely sure because i think what we're seeing a lot of the substance of approaches both. but i think there's something in a level of engagement, and i think the to a great extent, studies bottle sanchez's, the punch of, sorry beds these do really, to appeal to the sense of, you know,

feeling of the lecture and say we have to provide, explain, again, these, you know, these threats, these extra special threats from the right and obviously with, with the legacy of the frankly dictatorship and everything that, that still holds the emotions that he stares even today. so i, i agree with somebody at a tires wiper. how does that it will be strange to be calling for an election in the middle of summer during a heat wave, where perhaps is not the best bind to mobilize the electric. but again, these will go down in history as either horrendous miscalculation by a socialist government or a master stroke via on kindly political operator. and we will find out at the end of the election. indeed, i mean, you just touched on into the customer, wants to ask, and i'll go to jose imagery. it is about the, the, the effect of the franco dictatorship. yeah. is that of as left on spain and the, the stump. it's laughter in terms of democracy and how politics has developed in

the country. do people still have a tinge of understanding about? i don't know that the franco. yes it does. has influence still remain strong within the electorate. and within the political sphere, the old one thing that's the basic movie you see the war stopped to 90 years ago for nearly a do not. and they got says something new for me is for the young people probably use. and also how my getting a ration generation dobson went through the project on the session to my eyes is really not smoke that strong nor stories. the rhetoric sometimes, or even all signed these be used by the extreme. see, i'm gonna get in here. i would, i would stress the fact that, you know, there is theories on the one hand extreme point, click on rhetoric hosted to groups on the left and on the side. but they are just each thing you know, around talking to 40 percent so,

so this is really not the main stream of the spanish electorate. and i think for the main seamless bi, select for what people want, like anywhere in the world. a peaceful moment is more security, more concern for they, you know, essentially this essential threat stuff that they have been having us through the different crisis. i'm. this is the one that govern, dr. really protects the not government stuff. the bulk of the street. i think this is okay, this is the feeling a sense here that can be coming very closely to the end of i'll probably grab the shortest, it doesn't actually, and by letting us to spain as a stranger to political elections, as i said, they actually have the last full e u presidency before you are p at elections in 2024. how focused do you think? i think you are repeating capital rules are going to be on madrid over the weekend, considering the shift to the left or to the right. because sometimes influence politicians across the continent. right. i think that as a result of that,

there is a great deal of attention you just sitting in brussels. so your opinion officials, but also in, in capitals across the continent. because 1st of all, this could have, depending on how long a collision negotiation takes, this could have impact on the direction of the spanish presidency over the course of the next 5 and a half months. and so there's an immediate aspect to it there. but i think also there his, because we see some of these political trends that are crossing borders. there is very much a sense that people are tunes to what's happening elsewhere across europe as per time, potentially a hiring or what's to come for them. and when we have your team elections on the horizon next spring, this is something that all countries are going to be grappling with coming, you know, in the, in the, in the coming months. and so they're very much is a sense, but this is, this is one data point potentially on the path towards those european elections of the, i think, a poignant point to end the conversation. it's been a good the opportunity to talk to you will. and thank you very much for joining us on this edition of inside story has

a buddy of the data and the madrid. i believe she'll type bell and pablo color mountain as in london. thank you for joining me on inside story. thank you for watching as well. you can see the program again, any time by visiting our website at all. and is there a dot com for further discussion? go to all facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside store. you can also join the conversation on twitter. handle the is h, i inside story for me, so hold on and the entire insight story team. thanks very much for your time. and your company the, the award winning program. 27 years as often as an assignment is an extreme formalized solution. i think it's designed to break international format. well, clos, janet, 80 percent of 80 carpet that is controlled by guns. bring programs to a spine. you don't pay any time on an amount of that. i'm trying to push myself all

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