tv The Bottom Line Al Jazeera July 22, 2023 3:00pm-3:30pm AST
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to 0 world looks at the number of journalists killed into occupied palestinian territories and of the problems of holding anyone accountable for the death. he's ready. okay, patient doesn't want to move not prosecute a soldier shooting the messenger on which is 0. we understand the differences and similarities of cultures across the world. so no matter why you call out his ear will bring you the news and current affairs. the houses here the . ready ready several venue, you know how your top stories on al jazeera, the united nations humanitarian chief, says the end of the black sea green deal will put millions of lives at risk. russia
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withdrew from the agreement on monday, saying that you and didn't meet terms of a deal, including removing barriers on russia's exports. moscow came under pressure during a security council meeting on friday to discuss the threat of a potential global food crisis. for many of those 362000000 people, it's not a mattress sadness or disappointment. it's a matter of threats to the future and the future of the children and their families then upset the angry. they're worried that can so someone will go hungry. some will stop, many may die as a result of these decisions. greece is facing what could be as hot as july weekend and nearly 50 years with temperatures expect it to sort of 45 degrees celsius. and that heats, combined with the strong winds, have caused wild fires near the capitol. athens, at least a 100 homes have been destroyed. at least 6 people have died as to their boats sank off the coast of morocco. local authorities in the northeast and region of nador
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province reported $54.00 migrants were on board the vessel. and 18 year old with shots and other injured in sebastian, northwest of novelist, israel as, as a car carrying the 2 people attempted to run over his really troops separately. a 17 year old was shot during a protest in almost a frying ramallah. a protest against the government's proposed judicial changes are entering their 20 millions week. more than $10000.00 people in israel are marching towards west jerusalem from tel aviv and peace are due to vote on monday on the bill restricting the supreme court powers district down government decisions. protesters have gathered near the danish embassy in iraq's capital, angered by yet another incidents of koran burning. this time in copenhagen, rocky security forces fired tear gas to disperse the protesters before they reach the embassy. it follows thursday's storming of the swedish embassy in baghdad. 8 organizations in sedan say they are monitoring increased violations against women
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and girls. they say victims are being kidnapped from cartoon and being sold in several areas of dar for one youth group says troops from the parent military rapids support forces are involved in this. it says it's concerned that the violations could extend to the rest of the country. campaigning has ended in spain ahead of sunday's general election. this, the country is run by a central left government at the moment, but it could have a coalition that includes a far right party after the selection 7 of the largest u. s. companies involved in artificial intelligence have agreed to follow safeguards, set by the white house, amazon, google meta, and microsoft, or among the tech giants making the commitment. we must be clear, i vision lives about the threats emerging emerging technologies that can post have to, with can pose to our democracy in our values. americans are seeing how advanced artificial intelligence and the pace of innovation and the power disrupt jobs,
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industries. these commitments, the, these commitments are promising step. i think we have a lot more work to do together. the north korea has fired several christmas arias into a c office west coast. earlier this week, young young fired to ballistic missiles which landed in waters just outside japan's exclusive economic zone. and south korea. hundreds of holding a peace rally in the capital so active as to calling for an end to the korean war head of the 70 of anniversary of the armies disagreements. this comes at a time of heightening tensions between the countries. hong kong is intensifying its radiation inspections of sea food imports from japan. it follows concerns about tokyo's plan to release treated radioactive water from its focus. human nuclear plants into the c u. n. nuclear watchdog says tokyo's plant is safe, but some countries are against it. nonetheless, for those presidents we sent us you let us silver has placed new restrictions on gun ownership. the move is aimed at reversing his previous message that you are
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both scenarios pro gun policies and the new law reduces the number of guns civilians can own from 4th to 2. it also titans access to fire arms. those are the headlines on houses 0, then use continues right here after the bottom line, the a hi of steve clements and i have a question now there's a bite in white house as close the chapter on its relations with the ron. what's next? let's get to the bottom line. the relations between iran in united states. well, they've always been riddled with tension and drama, warmer president brock obama reached an agreement to make sure that iran wouldn't create nuclear weapons. but that agreement was been torn up by former president
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donald trump 5 years ago when president joe biden took office. he wanted to rejoin that agreement known as the jcp away, and hired the same official that had reached the original agreement to negotiate with iran. and that was rob malley but a few months ago malley security clearance was suddenly rebuilt. and now he's under investigation by the f b. i. so what's really going on in washington in t ron and are the chances for a deal in normal relations that today we're talking with roxanne from on from i on, who teaches international politics of the middle east in north africa at cambridge university. and eli lake, a contributing editor to commentary magazine, host of the re education podcast and a columnist for the new york son. thank you so much to both of you for joining us. let me start out with you ely, and ask you to set the stage. what i'm trying to understand is right now as we talk today, what is us strategy when it comes to iran? well, it's hard to know what us strategy is. there was, of course,
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the uprisings in iran, almost a year ago that started, you could say in earnest in september. and the message from president biden on down was almost of a policy of solidarity. and yet they never closed the door on these negotiations. and so i think in that respect, if it's sort of unclear and then without rob malley in an active role and negotiations, it's unclear who is picked up you know, for him. and the iranians themselves have not shown much of an interest in these kinds of negotiations. and in some ways of double down on an anti western approach by, you know, providing drones to russia and there were against ukraine. so it's unclear what biden's policy is other than a kind of holding pattern. one thing we can say is that when pardon came into office in 2021, the policy was not just, let's get back into the 2015 nuclear deal. it was,
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we will get back when the iranians are in compliance themselves and they never were able to get to that point. so is that still the view that they will not re enter the agreement until the iranians are back in compliance? have they've been trying to get a get out of that and what happened to abide in solidarity? these are all open questions and i don't know what the answer is. let me ask you just one further step and then i want to go to to roxy and, but the, but the question is, i remember very well hearing president obama talk to the nation and basically say we were on a collision course with iran. that without the jcp away, without restraints on it's nuclear weapons capacity. and hopefully it's, it's, you know, capabilities that united states and its allies would be drawn into some form of hot conflict over trying to prevent that capacity being built inside it wrong. so where is that, what is the state of iran's nuclear weapons building capacity today?
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and are we on that collision course again? well, we know that the iranians are much closer in terms of the enrichment of the highly enriched uranium or the nuclear fuel needed for nuclear weapons, as opposed to energy. and they keep popping up. and we also know that they have installed more efficient centrifuges, which felt which would have been allowed under the obama deal. and we know that even if there was still, you know, an obama, you know, the jcp away that a lot of the limitations on how much low enriched uranium they can compile and other sorts of things would be sunset in the coming years. so all of that leads me to think that the iranians are probably further along. but then on the other hand, the ryans have to sort of make a decision, which is that they have to worry about israel and israel capabilities. and then if they cross a certain line, would that provoke their response from the is reality is whether it will be covered or over. so i think that's
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a factor as well. but i think the writings are kind of where they've been there on the precipice or having a fair weapon, dr. from on for my on. i would also like to ask you your take on things, but i want to read you sounds like it's very interesting to read. be on the intelligence report from the office of director and national intelligence on a ron's nuclear weapons capability. and it, it lays out a few of the things that he lied to shared, you know, points of concern about enrichment levels and centrifuges and, you know, capacity and kind of protected and hardened uh, facilities. but that said, one of the most important lines is iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons development activities that would be necessary to produce a testable nuclear device. so both of these are hanging together in the port some, some, some behaviors of concern. and yet this a life, so i'd love to get your take on where we've had been have you and i've been having this conversation now for a few years. but has anything fundamentally shifted in your interpretation of what
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one plans to do with its nuclear programs as well? i think it's quite clear is that um, iran has become a nuclear capable state. that's what's happened over the last 6 months to a year, and that it's choice to become a nuclear stake, a nuclear weapon i state is no longer technical, but purely political. and it's clearly made the statements or it's in, in slide that it will not take that political step at the moment. so i completely agree with you. i. it is very cool. things are. but on the other hand, i think it is clear that both parties are still willing to talk behind the seats. they're not willing either of them to make something formal, but i think they do feel that both have vested interests to try to get somewhere in terms of an agreement that will reduce tensions. so that in the states,
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you know, the election can, can continue unfolding and any run their efforts at reconstituting their economic was, will make some progress. so, and i agree with eli also, i'd say they really want to take the tension off of any kind of real conflict with israel because we're seeing a di, conflicting process taking place. and the calls and the one area of real tension is with um, with jerusalem. and where that might go. so i think both sides are definitely open to still talking in the, in the hallways of there are various meetings where they may overlap. and it does seem that that is going on. but we don't have as clear an idea anymore as to how much you know the phrase is use less for less and i think that's sort of where we're going at the moment as less for less. why are we going that way, roxanne?
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i i, i'm just confused because of the about 89 months ago i ran into rob malley now suspended without pay in under f. b. i investigation really interested in where that drama takes us. but 8 months ago, we seemed to be on the verge of getting back into the jcp away and being on the verge of a deal. the view was that iran really couldn't get to. yes, that it wouldn't, wouldn't say yes. and i'm just interested in why that was and now is they're trying to put together a mini deal and i'll just tell the, tell the public, you know, this mini deal or this sort of semblance of an arrangement is being designed to potentially avoid congressional oversight or congressional approval, and i'm just interested in why united states and europe perhaps would be stepping back from a credible, tougher deal to something that is less, less, as you said, less for less and well, i think it may be a disconnect between what seems like
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a very close arrangement in vienna, of, from the west side or from the western side versus from the iranian side. i think the iranians felt that there was still the desire they've expressed right from the beginning of having some kind of guarantee on that more formalized agreement. that they all walked away from uh, 7 months ago that, uh, the united states itself would not walk away after this administration. and i think that is simply something the united states can offer. there can be lots of fixes and promises and guarantees that are sort of minor that would possibly be too, it'd be quite difficult for the us to walk away entirely. but the fact of the matter is that there's a new administration elected. they can do whatever they wish, and i think that really was the major sticking point. so i think that's one of the
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reasons we're a, you know, in the situation we find ourselves in now. and i think the situation is possibly gaining a certain degree of, of emergency to it or urgency simply because in october, a number of the parts of the jcp away go into the sunset. which includes the provision of drone and ballistic missile heart where and export to iran. in other words, those restraints on its production will now be listed in october. and that's a real issue. and the europeans have indicated that they may not um, abide by the j. c. p, away they may continue to constrain any kind of export of that kind of manufacturing into iran and goods and facilities training. all of that.
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and the i n e roland has made some very strong statements and implications about the, the europeans re nagging and saying that that really then possibly will leave them to consider to be c and p t. the non proliferation treaty. so there's quite a bit of rhetoric just beginning to be bandied about, all of which is quite worry some so i think that's one of the reasons why the west would really like to see if it any wrong can find some kind of uh, back door uh backward or agreement, right? or you like this data in october. it's october 18th, 2023. these these, these deals expire. so someone we both know is the route of make or has said that's a very important date and, and when that day comes in, just as roxanne said, lots of restrictions come off iran and it's ability to export long range missiles, which it has about sports, not done to russia it's, it's delivered short range drones,
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but it's paying attention to these restrictions. and i'm just interested in, in what you think about right of makers point that we can't wait until that moment . that what has to happen is, you know, the best action would be just to push the sanctions to snap back across the board and, and to create international. you get the legalities in iran weapons exports across the board. would you, would you agree with right of maker? well, i mean, the iranian regime in many ways as a law is receiving a lot of other ways. so the idea that you'll be creating international illegality. i don't know that necessarily will factor into i will, will affect their behavior as much. um, i do think it's an important date. um, i mean, i think the other thing that we have to look at here is that the supreme leader of iran is old and electrically pretty sick. and we always kind of hear every few months of us this, the story about some health scare or something like that. that's
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a huge matter of like what, who will be leading the iranian regime in the next 5 years or 3 years or 2 years. and that will affect, i think, what the, your audience are willing to do. and also, i would know, i would always like to remind everybody who thinks about these issues. that this is a regime that is facing a legitimation crisis center. it's been a long time going and even though we, it's not as much in the news right now, in terms of street protests. it's there in the background. there is a generation of iranians that no longer believe in the principles of the 1979 revolution. and i don't think that it's it, that, that we should necessarily bank on those people coming into power. that's not my point. my point though is that it needs to be taken into account that we're talking about a country that is ruled by a very corrupt and fanatic elite that no longer has the kind of back and let it did . so, you know, in the early days of that revolution, when iranians were still kind of responding to the years of the shop and you know,
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you can see this interesting thing and they run so occasionally where you see posters occasionally, right of the old pull. i began to see, so it's, it's only, i just kind of keep that in mind that if you, if you, if you make any kind of deal with this regime and, you know, wish to think about how all that regime is going to be in place. and how much right populate legitimacy. they have right? roxanne, the death of martha armine, if i'm pronouncing her name correctly, it was a trigger 20000 in jail, more than 500 people killed as you. i just talked about the street protests and, and lurking in the background aside right there. one, i don't think that i, or anyone i know can pretend to really know and understand the dynamics that are afoot inside iran in any credible way. but i am interested in whether or not that is a dimension, as we sort of look forward that you, that you have in understanding with so that people can look at both sides of this
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or the international deal making around weapons and ballistic missiles is one thing but what do you like just laid out as a legitimacy crisis, a crisis about the social contract that iranians feel or don't feel with their current government and, and what can be done or should be done in taking that into the, into account of the equation of how we deal with iran? well, i don't want to be a nay sayer, but it does seem to me that that is, it certainly did trigger major demonstrations. the response was very heavy handed and it was something that i think, certainly europe and the west and, and the west responded to viscerally the, the killing of a, of a young woman and the whole concept of segregating a part of this, the half of the population by insisting on veiling and the and the kind of outpouring by the young people was, was extremely moving. but if we looked with
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a hard cold i at the government itself, it did not actually flounder at all. there was no major division inside the regime. there wasn't a um, a, it didn't trip as it went forward in this overly heavy handed approach to stuffing out the demonstrations. and very unfortunately we see that the demonstrations now how uh, how rich receive that e norm mostly. and i think there's a 3rd part to this, and that is, i agree very much with what you lie saying, but there is a 3rd part. and that part is what has happened since, which is that the government has really operated on the foreign policy side of finding de todd with its neighbors with saudi arabia sickening, its relationship with china. it's joined the shanghai cooperation council. so it's really made lots of steps,
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trying to dust off its reputation internationally showed that it is a legitimate country and regime. and in fact the newest information i just got today is that iran might be critical in finding a negotiated settlement between turkey and syria. so we see that is very active internationally, and that is balancing that was a signal not only abroad, but to its own population. to say we are here, we're not going anywhere. and we are being taken very seriously by both the great powers and by our neighbors. and we are, we have plans for the future and we're going to be around fascinating points, eli, which is ask you again to accept, we somewhat tongue in cheek. but, you know, i think the united states right now is working very hard to try to seduce india out of all these arrangements around bricks. you know, brazil, russia, india, china, south africa, and some of the bricks meetings. is there
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a chance that somewhere down the road iran becomes the i n griggs and that you basically have, you know, what kind of different arrangement where as you see, i don't know what kind of counter western allies that and, and, and also looking at china is really active diplomacy and the region is just mentioned between the saudis and the iranians. also, china is becoming a major trading partner with israel. so what role do you see for china and is iran potentially going to become an economic partner of some of these countries that really want to resist american and european institutional dominance if you will? i think it's going to be very difficult for it unless iran is willing to deal with some of the structural problems it has in terms of its banks being used as friends for proliferation and terrace financing. then they're gonna run into lots of problems with international organizations that kind of keep the global financial system afloat. and you know, again, it's a question of like if, if, if
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a new leader was to emerge post common a that was responsive to their citizens. and then that would be great. and i think that would be very possible to do it to deal with the, your audience. but we don't know, and there's just a lot of uncertainty there. and i mean, the thing that i'm watching is, and what happens after how many, i mean, he can't wait for. so that's the thing i think that is worth watching. there were stories about, you know, recent kind of health crisis i think about 7 months ago or something with him. you know, he, he emerged accurate. i'm not saying, you know, you can't, you don't know what to do in terms of you shouldn't report on rivers, but again, he's in his eighties. i'm not the healthiest guy in the world. so i just, i'm saying it's, it's not a stable situation, especially when you start looking at it. and i would want to sort of see what happens after that was, how are they going to adjust? and i would just say that it's not, i don't know that they are for themselves,
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but they certainly were willing to use violence to, to, to maintain power from this fall from nearly a year ago after the street protests. but there were moments that were touching go, especially in some of the regional cities where we saw the words like video that came out on the social media where people were saying that they were overwhelmed. they didn't know what to do. you know, the yeah, i would just say any time you're talking about an authoritarian system, everything looks stable until the moment it collapses. so there's a lot we don't see under the surface that we should just always keep that in mind. of course i, i should add that as we talked about how many being in his eighty's of course, president biden is also in his the other one. yeah. and so when you have a look at that or that arena roxanne, let me just, you know, kind of get a take from you that when you sort of looked at the region and, and you were to basically say, well, from this point forward, i remember when in our last discussion, eli lake said, you know, maybe ambiguity is the right way to do it. maybe the as really is knocking off a nuclear scientists may be as good as it gets in terms of, you know, no plans actually working and just do it. but it just interesting that if you were
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advising the bite and white house and where to go, what would be the key pillars of what you think would be smart strategy right now for the u. s. and west regarding a ron as well. that's always a, a tough thing to be asked. you know, one is my thing, and i think from my perspective, it always makes me very concerned when a country is really at the place of possibly being able to develop a nuclear weapon. and, and i also think the possibility of iran receiving long distance missile imports and training and all sorts of elements that will, you know, grow that industry is, is also very disconcerting. and in fact, they're already threatening. they put their own restriction on the distance that their long range ballistic missiles go so that they don't reach europe, but now they're saying, well, that could change if europe starts being tricky about exports. so i think the, the,
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the key that i would approach by doing, and in fact some of the european leaders with is going to keep the eye on the ball . but this is a developing nuclear case and also human rights and government legitimacy. and of course it was right, government longevity are all issues right now. we have a policy issue that has to do with nuclear weapon. nice ation. and iran has used this always as, as leverage. i think it's actually possibly there's an argument to be said that it may have gone much further in the whole development of the nuclear industry than it had planned at wanted to, i think pursue the jcp away originally. and so i think that it is now up to the negotiating team to ensure it stays within the n p t. right now it's still receiving a great deal of, of, of yeah,
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the nuclear watchdog investigations. it's open to several different members of that . a i a, a group going in and in spite thing you don't want to leave it site. we don't want to have that turned black on us. and i think we need to make every effort to try to keep iran. you runs radically. our program open always learn a lot from the 2 of you when we have these discussions. professor roxanne, for a month from i on at cambridge university, and eli lake contributing editor at commentary magazine, thanks so much for being with us today. thank you. pleasure. thanks. so what's the bottom line from where i'm sitting? it looks like a ron has a strategy in the united states does not america and its allies tried to rain in iraq's nuclear program, but there was never a real consensus propping up that arrangement. and now those who oppose the dinner on and the u. s. have killed it. is real and many arab countries view around as their primary threats. and they don't want to deal. washington got close, but then
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a ron walked away, but with every day that passes, iran is still making centrifuges and still refining uranium. so america is neither preparing for military conflict with iran, nor reaching another deal to make peace with it. instead, washington, sort of pretty much doing nothing, even though the saudis have kind of sort of normalize relations with iran. it was china who was pushing not america. the global map of power is changing while the us remains paralyzed. and that's the bottom line. the of the a but next week the
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unmanned aerial vehicles deputy, but increasingly familiar tools on the modern battlefield with the conflict and ukraine, sparking the 1st full scale drawing board and pointing to a coming age of artificial intelligence on, on them as weapons. people in power examines the ethical questions around this proliferating technology and whether it poses a distributed threat. drones in the future of war on a jersey to the i'm several venue ando where your top stories on alpha 0, the united nations humanitarian. she says the end of the blacks.
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