the whole families with the will to is highly contaminate to live in the class. the risk in it all out is there on counting the cost. a blistering age wave sweeps across the world, frightening the health and livelihoods of millions, confir tourism mythology plans to put the country on the global forest map. false why a modest revolution is storming the world of global fashion. counting the cost on, i'll just the, the hello, i'm down, jordan into a lot of the top stories here on out to 0. hundreds of thousands of people have rallied in israel against the government's funds to change the judiciary. they won 5 minutes to benjamin netanyahu. discrepancies campaign to cut tail. some of the supreme court's powers. i'm here because the extreme is trying to change our

redeem. they got into power and trying to make us to reach the democracy. and you got the wish that i'm i came here to protest everything that is happening in the state of israel. i think the situation replies all of us to stand up democracy and humanism, up the road is on a daily basis by politician. i am religious because as long as our community plan is in the kind of met and we want to do something a body that would be to say enough man, the not the marshal is ready. prime minister benjamin netanyahu has been taking the hospital to be given a pace maker. he said in a statement he was fitted with a heart monitor last week and it started beeping earlier on saturday. the 73 year old said he feels great, but the need he needs to listen to his doctors. the funerals have been held for 2 young palestinians kilobytes. riley forces in separate shooting incidents on friday . the 18 year old fallacy myself,

i wish something killed in sebastian, north west of annapolis. i'm assuming you have sources of denied claims. biased ready forces to the competition was in attempted to run over is ready troops separately, 17 year old mamma, to buy it. a shot in the head june, a protest in their romano follows that opened in come bowed in a parliamentary election opposition groups and exile. i've called sherm or 125 seats are held by 5 minutes to homes and cambodia and people's bounty. sand is one of the world's longest setting leaders, and it's been in power since 1985. the may not position party has been bought from the contest funded below has moved from opponent station in the capital and on penn . if you talk to officials of the ruling can vote in people's party, which is the party of the prime minister when sen, they'll tell you they'll insist that there is an election that democracy is at work here in this country. and they point to the fact that even though the main

opposition party to candlelight party has been disqualified, that there are 17 other competing political parties. but none of these political parties have the national significance off the candlelight party. while science on the greek on the roads, the force tens of thousands of people to be moved to safety. the out of control fires up in burning for 5 days. around 2000 and taurus stranded on features have been moved by ferris. i've also been a while 5 outside the capital f and is at least a 100 homes have been destroyed. braces on close to face, it's hottest july weekend and nearly 50 years. temperatures are expected to soar to $45.00 degrees celsius us and canada. the eastern province of nova scotia is dealing with its heaviest rainfall in more than 40 years, homes have been submerged on roads, console. police, a full people are missing including 2 children. a state of emergency has been declared, and the city of halifax, a russian generalist,

has been killed during schilling in southern ukraine. all right, and use agency report at rest. his level is the arrival of was covering a story and from time village in the south region region, bruship lines ukrainian forces by using custom munitions in the attack. 16 civilians are reported to have been killed in an exchange of rocket fire between sedans, army, and the rapids, support forces or rights groups. as it happened in the online south del, for states. there are also reports of snipers targeting people in west and thoughtful and al, janine thousands of iraq, you protest is a valid outside the danish embassy in baghdad. and the by another incident of cor, i'm putting this time in copenhagen, around is to place off to the swedish embassy in the city was stored on thursday last month in iraq, a refugee who was a former melisha member. the koran during the protest install code that the 17 people have died in a bus accident in southern bangladesh, the passenger bus to bid off the road. i'm plunged into water on saturday morning.

please have a driver lost control of the vehicle. 45 other people were injured and rushed to local hospitals. so those are the headlines that he's continues here on, i'll just say are off to the bottom line station, central ocean, bye for now. the hi are steve clements and i had a question. now there's a bite in white house as close the chapter on its relations with the ron. what's next? let's get to the bottom line. the relations between iran in the united states. well, they've always been riddled with tension and drama, warmer president brock obama reach an agreement to make sure that iran wouldn't create nuclear weapons. but that agreement was been torn up by former president donald trump 5 years ago when president joe biden took off as he wanted to rejoin that agreement known as the jcp away,

and hired the same official that had reached the original agreement to negotiate with iran. and that was rob malley but a few months ago malley security clearance was suddenly rebuilt. and now he's under investigation by the guy. so what's really going on in washington in t ron and are the chances for a deal in normal relations that today we're talking with roxanne, from on from ion who teaches international politics of the middle east in north africa at cambridge university. and eli lake, a contributing editor to commentary magazine, host of the re education podcast, and a columnist for the new york son. thank you so much to both of you for joining us. let me start out with you ely, and ask you to set the stage. what i'm trying to understand is right now as we talk today, what is us strategy when it comes to iran as well, it's hard to know what your strategy is. there was, of course, the uprisings in iran, almost a year ago that started you could say in earnest in september. and the message from

president, by non town was almost to a policy of solid arity. and yet they never closed the door on these negotiations. and so i think in that respect it's, it's sort of unclear and then without rob malli in an active role and negotiations, it's unclear who is picked up, you know, for him. and the iranians themselves have not shown much of an interest in these kinds of negotiations. and in some ways of double down on an anti western approach by, you know, providing drones to russia and there were against ukraine. so it's unclear what biden's policy is other than a kind of holding pattern. one thing we can say is that when barton came into office in 2021, the policy was not just, let's get back into the 2015 nuclear deal. it was, we will get back when the iranians are in compliance themselves and they never were able to get to that point. so is that still the view that they will not re enter

the agreement until the iranians are back in compliance? have they been trying to get a get out of that and what happened to abide in solidarity? these are all open questions and i don't know what the answer is. let me ask you just one further step. and then i want to go to, to roxanne, but the, but the question is, i remember very well hearing president obama talked to the nation and basically say we were on a collision course with iran that without the jcp away, without restraints on it's nuclear weapons capacity and hopefully it's, it's, you know, capabilities that united states and its allies would be drawn into some form of hoc conflict over trying to preempt that capacity being built inside iran. so where is the, what is the state of iran's nuclear weapons building capacity today? and are we on that collision course again? well, we know that the iranians are much closer in terms of the enrichment of the highly

enriched uranium or the nuclear fuel needed for nuclear weapons, as opposed to energy. and they keep popping up. and we also know that they have installed more efficient centrifuges, which felt which would have been allowed under the obama deal. and we know that even if there was still, you know, an obama, you know, the jcp away that a lot of the limitations on how much low enriched uranium they can compile and other sorts of things would be sunset in the coming years. so all of that leads me to think that the iranians are probably further along. but then on the other hand, the ryans have to sort of make a decision, which is that they have to worry about israel and israel capabilities. and then if they cross a certain line, would that provoke their response from the is reality is whether it will be covered or over. so i think that's a factor as well. but i think the writings are kind of where they've been there on the precipice or having a fair weapon, dr. from on,

from my on. i would also like to ask you your take on things, but i want to read you something. it's very interesting to read the, the intelligence report from the office of director and national intelligence on a ron's nuclear weapons capability. and it lays out a few of the things that he lied to shared, you know, points of concern about enrichment levels and centrifuges. and you know, capacity and kind of protected in harden uh facilities. but that said, one of the most important lines is iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons development activities that would be necessary to produce a testable nuclear device. so both of these are hanging together in the port some, some, some behaviors of concern, and yet this a life. so i'd love to get your take on where we've had been, have you and i've been having this conversation now for a few years, but has anything fundamentally shifted in your interpretation of what one plans to do with its nuclear programs as well? i think it's quite clear is that iran has become

a nuclear capable state. that's what's happened over the last 6 months to a year. and that it's choice to become a nuclear stake. a nuclear weapon i state is no longer technical, but purely political. and it's clearly made the statements or it's in, in slide that it will not take that political step at the moment. so i completely agree with you. i. it is very cool. things are. but on the other hand, i think it is clear that both parties are still willing to talk behind the seats. they're not willing either of them to make something formal, but i think they do feel that both have vested interests to try to get somewhere in terms of an agreement that will reduce tensions. so that in the states, you know, the election can, can continue unfolding and any run their efforts at reconstituting their

economic was, will make some progress. so, and i agree with eli also, i'd say they really want to take the tension off of any kind of real conflict with israel because we're seeing a deep conflicting process taking place. and the calls and the one area of real tension is with um, with jerusalem. and where that might go. so i think both sides are definitely open to still talking in the, in the hallway is, uh, there are various meetings where they may overlap. and it does seem that that is going on. but we don't have as clear an idea anymore. as to how much, you know, the phrase is use less for less and i think that's sort of where we're going at the moment as less for less. why are we going that way, roxanne, i, i, i'm just confused because of the, about 89 months ago. i ran into rob malley now suspended without pay in under f. b

. i investigation. really interested in where that drama takes us. but 8 months ago . we seem to be on the verge of getting back into the jcp away and being on the verge of a deal. the view was that iran really couldn't get to. yes. that it wouldn't, wouldn't say yes. and i'm just interested in why that was. and now is they're trying to put together a mini deal and i'll just tell the, tell the public, you know, this many deal or this sort of semblance of an arrangement is being designed to potentially avoid congressional oversight or congressional approval. and i'm just interested in why united states and europe perhaps would be stepping back from a credible, tougher deal to something that is less, less, as you said, less for less and well, i think it may be a disconnect between what seems like a very close arrangement in vienna, of,

from the west side or from the western side versus from the iranian side. i think the iranians felt that there was still the desire they've expressed right from the beginning of having some kind of guarantee on that more formalized agreement. that they all walked away from uh, 7 months ago that, uh, the united states itself would not walk away after this administration. and i think that is simply something the united states can offer. there could be lots of fixes and promises and guarantees that are sort of minor that would possibly be to it been quite difficult for the us to walk away entirely. but the fact of the matter is that there's a new administration elected. they can do whatever they wish, and i think that really was the major sticking point. so i think that's one of the reasons we're a, you know, in the situation we find ourselves in now. and i think the situation is possibly

gaining a certain degree of as of emergency to it or urgency simply because in october, a number of the parts of the jcp away go into the sunset, which includes the provision of drone and ballistic missile heart where and export to iran, in other words, those restraints on its production will now be lifted in october and that's a real issue. and the europeans have indicated that they may not abide by the j c p. away they may continue to constrain any kind of export of that kind of manufacturing into iran and goods and facilities training. all of that, and you know, in the wrong has made some very strong statements and implications about the, the, the europeans re nagging and saying that that really then possibly will lead them

to consider to be c and p t, the non proliferation treaty. so there's quite a bit of rhetoric just beginning to be bandied about, all of which is quite worry some so i think that's one of the reasons why the west would really like to see if it any wrong can find some kind of back door back for it or agreement, right? or you like this data in october. it's october 18th, 2023. these these, these deals expire. so someone we both know as the right of maker has said, that's a very important date and, and when that day comes in, just as roxanne said, lots of restrictions come off iran and it's ability to export long range missiles, which it has about sports not done to russia it's, it's delivered short range drones, but it's paying attention to these restrictions. and i'm just interested in, in what you think about right of makers point that we can't wait until that moment

. that what has to happen is, you know, the best action would be just to push the sanctions to snap back across the board and, and to create international you like get the legalities in iran weapons exports across the board. would you, would you agree with right of maker as well? i mean, the radi and we seem in many ways as a lawless regime in a lot of other ways. so the idea that you'll be creating international illegality. i don't know that necessarily will factor into i will, will affect their behavior as much. i do think it's an important date. but i mean, i think the other thing that we have to look at here is that the supreme leader of iran is old and electrically pretty sick. and we always kind of hear every few months of us this, the story about some health scare or something like that. that's a huge matter of like what, who will be leading the iranian regime in the next 5 years or 3 years or 2 years. and that will affect, i think, what the,

your audience are willing to do. and also i would now, i would always like to remind everybody who thinks about these issues. that this is a regime that is facing legitimation crisis. and that's been a long time going. and even though we, it's not as much in the news right now, in terms of street protests, it's there in the background. there is a generation of iranians that no longer believe in the principles of the 1979 revolution. and i don't think that it's it, that, that we should necessarily bank on those people coming into power. that's not my point. my point though is that it needs to be taken into account that we're talking about a country that is ruled by a very corrupt and fanatic elite that no longer has the kind of back and let it did . so, you know, in the early days of that revolution, when iranians were still kind of responding to the years of the shop and you know, you can see this interesting thing in the run. so occasionally where you see

posters occasionally, right of the old pull. i began to see, so it's, it's only, i just kind of keep that in mind that if you, if you, if you make any kind of deal with this regime and, you know, ways to think about how long that regime is going to be in place. and how much right populate legitimacy. they have right? roxanne, the death of martha armine, if i'm pronouncing her name correctly, was a trigger 20000 in jail, more than 500 people killed as you. i just talked about the street protests and lurking in the background aside right there. one, i don't think that i or anyone i know can pretend to really know and understand the dynamics that are afoot inside iran in any credible way. but i am interested in whether or not that is a dimension, as we sort of look forward that you, that you have in understanding with so that people can look at both sides of this or the international deal making around weapons and ballistic missiles is one thing but what do you like just laid out as a legitimacy crisis,

a crisis about the social contract that iranians feel or don't feel with their current government and, and what can be done or should be done in taking that into the, into account of the equation of how we deal with iran? well, i don't want to be a nay sayer, but it does seem to me that that is uh, it certainly did trigger a major demonstrations. the response was very heavy handed and it was something that i think, certainly europe and the west and, and the west responded to viscerally the, the killing of a, of a young woman and the whole concept of segregating a part of this, the half of the population by insisting on violating and the, and the kind of outpouring by the young people was, was extremely moving. but if we looked with a hard cold i at the government itself, it did not actually flounder at all. there was no major division inside

the region team. there wasn't a um, a, it didn't trip as it went forward and it's overly heavy handed approach to stuffing out the demonstrations. and very unfortunately we see that the demonstrations now how uh, how rich receive that enormously. and i think there's a 3rd part to this, and that is, i agree very much with what you lie saying. but there is a 3rd part in that part is what has happened since, which is that the government has really operated on the foreign policy side of finding they taught with its neighbors, with saudi arabia sickening, its relationship with china. it's joined the shanghai cooperation council. so it's really made lots of steps, trying to dust off its reputation internationally showed that it is a legitimate country and regime. and in fact the newest information i just got

today is that iran might be critical in finding a negotiated settlement between turkey and syria. so we see that is very active internationally, and that is balancing that was a signal not only abroad, but to its own population. to say we are here, we're not going anywhere. and we are being taken very seriously by both the great powers and by our neighbors. and we are, we have plans for the future and we're going to be around fascinating points, eli, which is ask you again. it is that we somewhat tongue in cheek, but, you know, i think united states right now is working very hard to try to seduce india out of all these arrangements around bricks. you know, brazil, russia, india, china, as of africa. and some of the bricks meetings, is there a chance that somewhere down the road iran becomes the i and briggs and that you basically have, you know, what kind of different arrangement where as you see,

i don't know what kind of counter western allies that and, and and also looking at china is really active diplomacy, and the region is just mentioned between the saudis and the iranians. also, china is becoming a major trading partner with israel. so what role do you see for china and is iran potentially going to become an economic partner of some of these countries that really want to resist american and european institutional dominance if you will? i think it's going to be very difficult for it unless iran is willing to deal with some of the structural problems that has in terms of its banks being used as friends for proliferation and terrace financing. then they're gonna run into lots of problems with international organizations that kind of keep the global financial system afloat. and you know, again, it's a question of like if, if, if a new leader was to emerge post comedy that was responsive to their citizens. and that would be great. and i think that would be very possible to do a deal with the,

your audience. but we don't know, and there's just a lot of uncertainty there. and i mean, the thing that i'm watching is what happens after how many, i mean, he can't wait for. so that's the thing i think that is worth watching. there were stories about, you know, recent kind of health crisis i think about 7 months ago or something with him. you know, he, he emerged accurate. i'm not saying, you know, you can't, you don't know what to do in terms of, you know, you could do you, you shouldn't report on rivers, but again, he's in his eighties and not the healthiest guy in the world. so i just, i'm saying it's, it's not a stable situation, especially when you start looking at it. and i would want to sort of see what happens after that was, how are they going to adjust? and i would just say that it's not, i don't know that they are for themselves, but they certainly were willing to use violence to, to, to maintain power from this fall from nearly a year ago after the street protests. but there were moments that were touching go,

especially in some of the regional cities where we saw that it was like video that came out on the social media where people were saying that they were overwhelmed. they didn't know what to do. um, you know, the yeah, i would just say any time you're talking about an authoritarian system, everything looks stable until the moment it collapses. so there's a lot we don't see under the surface and we should just always keep that in mind. of course i, i should add that as we talked about how many being in his eighty's of course, president biden is also in his the other one. yeah. and so when you have a look at that or that arena roxanne, let me just, you know, get kind of get a take from you that when you sort of look at the region and, and you were to basically say, well, from this point forward, i remember when in our last discussion, eli lake said, you know, maybe ambiguity is the right way to do it. maybe be as rarely as knocking off a nuclear scientist may be as good as it gets in terms of, you know, no plants actually working and just do it. but i'm just interesting that if you were advising the bite and white house and where to go, what would be the key pillars of what you think would be smart strategy right now

for the us and west regarding a ron as well? that's always a, a tough thing to be asked. you know, when is advising? and i think from my perspective, it always makes me very concerned when a country is really at the place of possibly being able to develop a nuclear weapon. and, and i also think the possibility of iran receiving long distance missile imports and training and, and all sorts of elements that will and, you know, in to grow that industry is, is also very disconcerting. and in fact, they're already threatening. they put their own restriction on the distance that their long range ballistic missiles go so that they don't reach europe. but now they're saying, well, that could change if you're upstarts being tricky about exports. so i think the, the, the key that i would approach by,

and in fact some of the european leaders with is do we need to keep the eye on the ball. but this is a developing nuclear case and also human rights and government legitimacy. and of course, utilize right, government longevity are all issues right now we have a policy issue that has to do with nuclear weaponized ation. and iran has used this always as, as leverage. i think it's actually possibly there's an argument to be said that it may have gone much further in the whole development of the nuclear industry than it had planned it wanted to, i think proceed with the jcp a way originally. and so i think that it is now up to the negotiating team to ensure it stays within the n p t. right now it's still receiving a great deal of, of, of, you know, the nuclear watchdog investigations. it's open to several different members of that . a i e,

a group going in and in spite thing we don't want to lose sight. we don't want to have that turn black on us. and i think we need to make every effort to try to keep iran. you runs radically or program open, always learn a lot from the 2 of you when we have these discussions. professor roxanne, for a month from i on at cambridge university, and eli lake contributing editor at commentary magazine thanks so much for being with us today. a thank you, a pleasure. thanks. so what's the bottom line from where i'm sitting? it looks like a ron has a strategy in the united states does not. america and its allies tried to rain in iraq's nuclear program, but there was never a real consensus propping up that arrangement. and now those who oppose the dinner on and the us have killed it, is real and many air of countries view around as their primary threats. and they don't want to deal. washington got close, but then a wrong walked away. but with every day that passes, iran is still making centrifuges and still refining uranium. so america is neither

preparing for military conflict with iran, nor reaching another deal to make peace with it. instead, washington, sort of pretty much doing nothing, even though the saudis have kind of sort to normalize relations with iran. it was china who was pushing not america. the global map of power is changing while the us remains paralyzed. and that's the bottom line, the after world war 2 from says, great empire began to unravel in vietnam to most of the statements as soon as the st. busting with joy kissing each other. and algeria, she lives until she was a split. even though chinese managed to beat the french army, why not die? the decline continues an episode to us legends, his french t colonization on outages era dreaming of some way more amazing

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