stiff cobble, we could see flooding on tuesday and for the middle leaves we've got rounds of rain coming into oman. this could dump up about 50 millimeters of rain in some spots. the history is for gum. that's all peril yet in spain, states imposed amnesia was enshrined in law, diminishing the plight of countless victims of frank coast. 36, you take, take the shape with a group of survivor. it says launched an international law suit hoping to bring those accountable to justice and forced the country to acknowledge its fascist bost . the silence of others. witness all now to sierra former us president donald trump is facing a criminal trial in may for mishandling confidential documents. yet he remains the funds run out for the republican presidential nomination. so how would his legal

problems affect his campaign? this is inside story, the other welcome to the program on adrian finnegan, donald trump, some the us political establishment and the world. by winning the white house raised nearly 70 years ago to impeachment last election, but a failed insurrection later, that peace hoping to do the same in next year's presidential poll. so far, he's the front one, have to become the republican know many of the same time. he's facing dozens of criminal charges and several investigations, but will these think his political ambitions for help him when more support will get to i guess in just a moment. but 1st sort of high that has this report on trump's legal troubles.

the us president donald trump was deeply controversial, one in office and remains. so today he hopes to be running and next year's presidential election in november, 6 months, the full that he'll be standing trial facing $37.00 criminal charges most under the us espionage act. the prompt noise illegally keeping classified documents that says florida home and says he's the targets of a witch hunt trumps legal issues. though extend well beyond this case, he's on the criminal investigation into his role in the 2021 capital riots and efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election in march. he became the 1st woman us present to face criminal charges. he's accused of falsifying business records to hide, to pay off to pull install stormy daniels before the 2016 election. then there's the georgia investigation and delegation. the tried to get to officials the, to all,

to that states presidential election results. trump has made the prosecutions a central theme and his campaign, riley's, i didn't know practically what a subpoena was in grand juries and all of this now i'd like becoming an expert. i have no choice because you have to. it's a disgrace. if you say something about an election that want to put you in jail for the rest of your life, it's a disgrace. so they can cheat on an election. but if somebody wants to question the cheating they want to call you a conspiracy theorist and all these other things, these people are sick from supporters believe the investigations and prosecutions are all parts of a plot to stop him from becoming president's again. trump portrays himself was a political outside while he called keep himself out of quote, he'll be fighting through time to the whites house and not end up in a prison. so sort of height of foot inside story. the. so let's bring it down guess from

washington which will end by reno shops who is a political strategist and commentators up as a senior officer republican members of congress. and the coke is a republican strategist, informal majority leader of the minnesota state senate. she is in las vegas at also in washington dc. melanie sloane, out of tony and former federal prosecutor. she's also an expert on government ethics. i will welcome to your reading. let's start with you. with all of these legal was hanging over him. is he really going to be? so nominate for the republican presidential candidates at this point in the race? it's looking very likely that trump couldn't be the person though, but continues to hold of latch for republicans in 2024. now do the vast majority of the republicans want to see his name on the ballot in 2020 the board. that's what remains to be really seen, because we don't have any good, accountable reporting on that at this time. uh,

whether it's the pull to where we hear from likely republican builders or just general public sentiment. when you look at the republican electric, you do see some cause for concern for trump world because of the last mid terms. what we've seen in general is somewhat of a break from the average of public and voter with the make america great. again, movement. we saw a shop put up a number of candidates across the country, whether they were for congress or for the senate. it's as much as endorsement was actually the case of death. a lot of candidates could not make it out of primaries because they were seen to be to extreme and many what would be considered establishment. republicans have blaine before our trip president, for republicans not having the majority in the senate. so what we see right now is truly a perfect storm for anyone to come in and really show that they could present a bold vision in the way the trunk did in 2016 again. that sort of outside her voice that encompasses what is really the, the do and the question does your of every day wire of air games completely

enamored with grievance politics is because trump really made that possible. i came out say i'm standing for you, i reflect your frustration with washington and the elite in washington, and that sentiment is still very much there in the republican electorate. so i believe anybody that's going to be successfully april to topple the former president is the g o p nominee in 20? $24.00. has to be how has to have that perfect mix of old again, at trump, the world sort of monitors that still work? well, while doing something new, which is talking about kitchen table issues and painting divided ministration out as unfit to lead. but bring the rigor how to do regular republicans feel about him . and if he becomes the nobody. okay, you've got the make america. great. again, supported by people who were always back from the district and that's going to be behind hand. but how did to, to regular republicans realized it isn't something that they're just gonna have to

hold them over. so i suppose, well, we talked about regular republicans. it's very, it's very important to, to sort of delineate who those are or the moderate people are the central right, or the people that actually may be crossed over and voted for by the end of the last election. and now feel some regret for that boat. are the people who now affiliate independently, because they're so fed up with what trump has made the republican party or the fact that trump was the nominee, and one in 2016 and again was on the ballot and 2020, and loss. so you have a whole mix of people there that sort of fit that regular republican moniker. again, what i, i really alluded to earlier, was saying that the make america great again, faction is actually truly dwindling in size. it's getting smaller so they don't have as much of a choke hold on the party. and, and if you look at sort of the political mat, that's the, that's a boats to capture, to win the white house for republicans. it's those independently minded voters in swing states that is the elected, that is a demographic that's going to be talked about. so people are blue in the face until

november 2024. these people are willing to take the chance on somebody new, but what they're finding and what, who could have been that somebody knew that somebody such as board a governor, randa santas, is that they don't like that he's going so hard. right, right now, going so extreme on social issues, for example, these people are usually pretty fiscally conservative, but moderately, socially. i would, i would considered somewhat liberally bent so they don't feel so harsh about abortions. they don't want such stringent bands and they're seeking the republicans in state houses across the country. do that. i mean, if he wins the nomination with all of the, the various legal threats hanging over him, a, they gonna have to pull him to him in his campaign to, you know, i think it's a mix with the legal, the legal threats that faced him. i think some of them people view as a little superfluous. i think about the stormy daniels and i think i think back to

bill clinton and how people, you know, really don't they just don't they, they don't really care about that. you're lying about an affair about sex, and then i think there are some very incredibly serious allegations that people do view as very credible, like in georgia, when you're asking in the elected official to find a 11000 votes. ok, so i think it's a mix. i think with trump, it's always a mix, and i do agree that his support is dwindling. i've been to, um, i've been to 4 or 5 trump rallies and the energy there's like nothing i've ever seen at a political rally and i've been to lots of them. however you do see. busy those you see that energy dying, you see people hesitant, but with our, an acceptable alternative, without enough turn on, an alternative that excites people, that, that drives people to pull and, and to be honest, we've not seen that. um, i think, you know, becomes kind of just defacto trump because what else is there? which is, which is unfortunate. i always say that there's,

there's very little as far as the alternative is concerned right now, i would like someone who's accurately predicted every presidential election since 1994 says that trump is done. he's got too many buttons too much package to be able to run again, even presuming he escapes jail to to scapes bankruptcy. and i'm not sure he's got to escape jail. he said, why, comp, the republican policy see that the better off without trump? i mean so much better off without trump. right. it's spend 3 election cycles is not just the mid terms of change. it was 2020, it was 2018. were far better off with the trunk, but i, but there's just, there's a, 1st of all there's, you know, just 15 to 20 percent that are high energy. i also do look to our republican leadership because if you talk to most republican leaders and i know many of them in washington very highly place, they will tell you privately that we are better off without trump. they. busy busy will say all these things that you know, that we are saying now and yet publicly,

they're unwilling to make that stand. so i also looked at republican leadership and say it, you know, it's time to step off if you, if you, if you feel this because because republican leadership, but it's quiet, gives, give way it gives way and gives us sort of tacit agreement. but to trump as the leader of the party, the better they don't innocent until proven guilty, but how can a stablished political policy even consider uh, having a nobody. if a president, someone who has all of these legal threats, hire him right now as, as any of us thinks, i'm more credible than others. but nonetheless, there's a very big chance that that, that he could be convicted. and i may even go to jail. yes, adrian, there's a very strong likelihood that mr. trump will be convicted and go to jail. the question is, of course, when the biggest trial hanging over him right now is the florida trial,

which has now been scheduled for may, but that's only a tentative date. the judge has called that case, a complex case. now be many motions, and that means that there could easily be delays. obviously, trust team has already tried to get the electric. i the, the trial pushed past the election and we could well see if in the astonishing case the trunk line, you could see him then arguing that once he was president, he no longer should be tried for these crimes. and you could even find way where he might try to, pardon, do you solve actually a tube in that case? so it's, it's very hard to predict how that's going to play out. obviously, the georgia case is a different matter. we're going to see that likely indictments later this summer. there is no way for that to easily go away from mr. trump with the georgia parole board. the only um only s d that has uh the authority to tear apart from him. and it's very unlikely given that governors town has been not in trump's camp all along,

so i don't see that happening in any way. so that's pretty big jeopardy. and now we're seeing the likelihood that trump will be indicted for additional crimes. he's announced last week that he had received a letter from the justice department indicating he's a target in the january 6 matter of the effort to extract president biden from taking office. so legal jeopardy is and is very severe, and it is a very surprising that so many republicans are still willing to support mr. trump despite all of this, but it plays into his murder complex. and i agree with both of your other guys who have talked about the issues here. mean really you can lay some of this that mitch mcconnell, the senator of the, the senate minority leader. if mcdonald had agreed to impeach trumpet via the voted to impeach trumbull after january 6th, then we wouldn't be in this position. the republican party would be in this position because mr. trump wouldn't be able to run it down. and yet mister

mcconnell and so many other republicans who, who knew well that mr. trump had behaved, rucker had simply and illegally, refused to take a stand and they've done so repeatedly, i guess the game that they, you know, want to keep those voters themselves. and they don't want to take the risk of going after truck, but if all the republican leadership came together and actually said this is not good for the country, this man is bad for the country. the republican party would be better off. and frankly, america would be better off, we need to functioning political parties. and right now the republicans hardy, really isn't functioning. yeah. i see. you refer to trump mater complex if he went to the invitation. not only he would of course, pays himself as, as of the victim, as he's always done of a witch hunt. and i wonder what the implications of that off of the us legal system during a up a presidential election campaign. if one of the candidates is going to call into

question of the legal systems, impartiality. well, you know, mr. trump has broken every norm that we've ever seen since, since he 1st came on the political scene, you know, 8 years ago. and i, there's no question that he will continue to power the legal system and, and, and claim that it's unfair. but so far the legal system is the only thing that has really held up. we have seen judge after judge including conservative judges around the country, be the last ball work and really protecting our democracy. we saw that terrific stance of the legal system in all the cases that mr. trump and his allies brought to try and undermine the results of the 2016 presidential election and really across the board. every judge through the cases out and said that these, these, these charges that the mr trump was making were not real. i think when these cases go to trial and more and more facts come out and people read more and more including and sometimes the president's own words,

they will priest or trump's own words and they will, it will be very hard to argue against. but of course, his course of foreigners there really, it doesn't matter as what he said, and even if he has past statements, they'll find a way to ignore them. so there is a course for him. there is literally nothing that could, that could undermine their fate. and mr. trump, but i do think that that's only a core group and most americans, especially the independent motors that are going to be so important, are going to be looking at best and they're not going to be able to hold their noses. and, but for trump, they're going to be verified by that continuing legal problems of demand and all of his efforts to really destroy american democracy. rena, just in terms of strategy, i'll just sort of get your opinion. last week, trump again announced he was likely to be indicted before any announcements have been made by it by prosecutors themselves. i mean, it's pretty kind of trick. is that trying to frame the news on a his terms?

but it's not likely to help him in terms of the public's perception of both him and his campaign. in that cupboard strict that you just mentioned is one that trump has been employing before decades now, even in his private life as the head of trump organization. but what we saw at least 8 years ago is that that was the trick that really worked. so sort of writ large and he continues to do it because he knows that nobody else has really been able to hold a candle to how he does it. it's that sort of style. the crew is not what he's putting across the channel and he does it in a way that is unlike anyone else. and so we think about how that really has an impression on the average. busy odor you have to look at who's really to den of the vast majority of americans are now choosing to get their new sources from a bias standpoint. and that, that's something that's really unique to this era. so traditional media here, st side has that challenge of being seen as on one side or the other. and then also

the ways in which americans are getting their news, whether it's from, you know, smartphone with no longer opening up a morning paper so much. and so sure, but that's the strategy we have to think of the, you know, how does this work for his can entertain, in the long run? i don't think it's the one that can be successful over and over again. because the, at the core of the republican party is this sort of sense that we are not the victims. we are individuals who have full capacity and capability. and we don't need the government to tell us what to do or to take care of us in a certain way. that is, that's really the republican parties, um core values and what you see right now on display by the most of, you know, loud and really extreme voice. and the robert compared to the former president, trump included, is this sense that we are being victims of the establishment hopkins. they don't want us. they're trying to get rid of us by any means. so the numbers to remember as of today, really hard to 712 and 31. and i'll give you

a quick snapshot of what i mean by those number. 71 is a number of criminal charges. trump faces in both new york state over the legend harsh money payments to stormy daniels, the adult film actors, and to separate the federal case over the classified documents, $71.00 criminal charges. it's just astounding to think that a former president is being criminally charged in and look, we have a justice system here. that means he is not above the law, he's a private citizen. but then there's those 2 additional criminal investigations that are ongoing over election interference, including another federal pro. the trunk claims has named him is a criminal target. and then despite all this, trump remains 31 points in front of the next closest republican presidential candidate in an average of national polls, which was put together by the website 538. so these are really important numbers to remember moving forward because it paints a picture really of google and federal publicans. a lot of republicans feel and not wrong. we so that trump cannot win a general like and, and i would agree with that sentiment. okay. i, i mean,

i don't know whether you want to chime in on, on that up. but i, the question of what to ask you is that of course, as we've been hearing, trump has made the, the, the legal threats against, in a central theme and his campaign rallies. and he's argued that it's a bite and administration plot to keep him out of power. do you think the people as support is really believe that or the people in general in, in the us see through that? so it's not just that it's a threat against him, and i think that's what people have to understand is very clever and how he does that, that they're coming up to him in the pre announcement, but he doesn't make it just about him. he says, and they're, and i'm the only thing standing in the way of them doing it to you. and until people fully understand and can somehow change that up and articulate to those big people that are feeling abandoned that are feeling lost that are viewing under attack. and they, you house,

that's what you have to understand about from genius. it's not just, it's not really just about him. he paints this as he's the, he's the person standing in the way and they'll do it to me there for sure, coming for you. and it's that it's of that message and that's those people that respond to that. and so, and so republicans, whether they are establishment, whether they are tea party, whether they are, you know, most my golf form or monica. you have to understand that dynamic that he does so well. if you're going to ever, you know, kind of cracked through that, like those people that you know forever and always stand with him. and you won't get all of them. but you have to recognize the feelings behind that, that the dynamics behind those melody, which of the various legal cases against trump frankness took the course in most trouble. and if this is supposing that he is the nominate, a quote case gets on the way

a trial gets on the way. how to of this he comes pain when he's expect expect it to be in close. um, well i, i think right now that the case that's probably the most serious pending is that is the florida case. that is now set to go to trial in may that, that the new charges that we are likely to see out of georgia are also going to be very serious. and the charges that may come from the continued investigation to january 6th, which taught trumpet said he's a target, it seems, but that case is going to offer some also very, very serious charges. and it's starting to sound from press accounts that they have some statements by trump that indicates that he knew he was trying get a referral, a presidential and president biden's fair and free election. so that could cause him some also very serious concerns. so it's hard, but those cases however, um are not likely to be going to trial. as soon as the january 6 case,

he's just received the target letter. he hasn't been indicted yet. so hard to say when that case would actually be pending. um, and also the georgia case of that case is likely to go more quickly. the indictments if we see them this summer, could also well lead to a trial next year. okay, we've got 5 minutes left about discussion. i want to put one question, the same question tool 3 of you here. so i got to ask if you can, to keep your on. so to have a minute. i'm at 15 here. it is of course, far too soon to write to political a bit. terrific. donald trump, now, but if he is convicted in any of the cases against and at his somehow removed from the political stage, how likely is it that we will see the rise of another trump in the near future? someone who uses the same playbook and tactics and how dangerous some of it is this for us democracy, reno. and i think us democracy is always under fire, but it's a beautiful thing because it remains standing and very much intact. and after

january 6, 2021, i was assured of that, look, we had our own fellow citizens try to attack and, and overthrow our own government. it truly something that that blows in mind. but like i said, we have a number of threats to our democracy, but i really see really the champions for our democracy, standing firm a month is champions. there are bad actors and, and i think they sit and us congress. so in general, but we'll see is more people will try to take on that veneer of trump, whether be on the g o p side. but i also will see it across the political spectrum in the years to follow. trump is change or politics as we know it, it doesn't have to be this way. it doesn't have to be so nasty, the name calling and, and the lies and, and the really popping up conspiracy theories. i'm really feeling very sure that the pendulum will swing back in due time. but right now what we have to do is push back on the people that try to sell life to us. and i think a number of people are standing up for that. but it is a very tough task. when you see people who will take the debate stage,

as we neared the general election day on 2024, whether they'll be one of the last 2 candidates, danny, or they'll be in this g o. p primary. i can tell you, we will hear some very, very scary things, and we will see that again, that trump playbook very well employed on the g o p side. so it's up to regular average. americans to really stand up and open their ears and push back lies and false. that's maybe what are your thoughts? so yeah, we really haven't seen that, transferred to anyone whether it's, you know, sort of the public and the conservative caucus, the most conservative caucus in the congress. whether it's donald trump, some children donald trump, junior, and. 3 there's a, there's a cold, 1st finality here that lends itself to what has happened. and as far as, um, our democracy, we're always one generation away from losing that, but we, uh, we ran it back and i think we're going to do that again. okay, melanie, what are your thoughts on this off the trump? will us democracy ever be the same again?

well, certainly other players have tried to emulate trump's playbook, but be smarter. and that's what ron de santis, governor of florida, and what tried to do, but so far he's failed miserably. and he once looked like the, the answer to trump for the republicans and now has fading, is fading fast. there are other people on the republican side of the aisle, really crazy republicans like marjorie chandler green, lauren bober and matt gauge. we're all trying to seize that mantle and trying to get those trunk voters. but so far they, they just don't capture public attention. the same way, but i agree with your uh, the other guess and this has changed politics forever. but i think that american democracy is strong and there is a lot of other, a lot of people who are very invested in it. most americans and we'll push back and let's hope that we soon see the end of trump, and there is not a similar person on the horizon any time soon. ability just to come back to prove very briefly for if you can't about 30 seconds here. but with something you were

saying earlier, it's trumps, on how much just to win the election and then ends up popping himself up or just putting off the trial until he's left office. how will the american electorate feel about that? i think there will be huge amount numbers of the american elector that will be absolutely terrified and i think it would seriously undermine his ability to govern . but we already saw so many problems with his governing style last time that i think democracy would be serious challenges if that happened, that i'm hoping that it will not okay, but we're all going to have to leave it many thanks indeed to what to all of you for being with us today, rita shaw, amy cook, and melanie sloane. as always, thank you for watching. don't forget, you can see the program again at any time. all you have to do is go to the website, which you'll find at, i'll just sierra dot com for further discussion. you can join us a facebook page. you'll find that at facebook dot com forward slash h i inside story. and of course, the conversation continues on twitter handle at

a j inside story from me, adrian said again, and the team here. and so thanks for being with us. we'll see you again, bye for the the the basically entities, the un fits the purpose was like many critics sites just obsolete and doesn't get anywhere near enough done to the amount of money that is put into its hard hitting interviews. do you think go to the lines on washing it's enough for money to go on its own and built it's on don't providing on for centuries, people have been taken care of are. so i have every confidence that future

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