i, i over the next dial say, meanwhile we got some west of weather pushing toward south africa over the next couple of days until the much cooler intake town. the latest news as it breaks or the one side, the a 40 is our payment for tom. on the other side, now it's from late at the monday justice with detailed coverage, the were has resulted in the closure of many hospitals. and that puts a lot of pressure on the medical staff here from around the world. the operation in jeanine would last no more than 48 hours, the consequences, the impact of what has happened here. the last for years. the ccrpi of the prime minister, such as land golf country will get direct access to a force of the i'm as wants to increase because on the gross. but how far as the professor goes, and what coding c o p has made us of this is inside story,

the other. welcome to the program. i'm adrian. instead of going to c, c o. p, a has been landlocked since arrow track gained its independence in 1993 for 30 years, it's been dependent upon its neighbors, especially debility for access to ports of international shipping routes. if you pay as prime, it has to be, um, it says the high cost of unsustainable he's reportedly said that if you will secure, direct access to a port peacefully or if necessary by force. what does he mean and what are the implications for neighboring nations? we'll be discussing hold of this in a few moments without guests, but 1st a report from victoria gate can be the post of diabetes, situated on one of the busiest shipping rates in the world. 95 percent of the p. o

. p as inputs and experts passed through. here. e c o p a has been look since eritrea gained independence and 1993 support of a sap handle, 2 thirds of ethiopia as trade for 5 years to will broke out between the neighbors and 1998. since then, it's relied on all the posts in the region. if you, if your prime minister be, um it says the state is, quote, was costly and unsustainable. you won't be able to have a pool to its own. she reportedly told a meeting of investors, and businessman last week, the d. c o p a will get support by peaceful means. but if that fails, it will use force in a bit to tap into shipping words. the government's recently started negotiations with its neighbors and has reportedly offered eritrea a 30 percent stake in the national carrier and exchange for direct access to its port. it'd be a, has one of the fastest growing economies in the world. it is 2023 world economic

outlook. the international monetary fund predicted g d p with increased 13 and a half percent this year. that the government says development is being held back. it seems determined to address this. something neighboring countries will be following closely. victoria gates and beef inside story. so let's bring it, i guess for today is discussion from edison about with joined by come on, how she's my mood, a member of the therapy in parliament in london as much in todd's a journalist, specializing in the horn of africa. he's also a fellow at the institute of pulling world studies at the university of london and from washington dc with joined by clark, who norma, who was a cd electra and chairman of the international peace and conflict resolution program at the american university. gentlemen, welcome to you or come on as you mama. let's start with you. let's clear up something right from the start. did probably um it actually say that he'd get

access to a port by peaceful means negotiation or by force if necessary. but if he did make those remarks, how seriously should we take them a lot. thank you. so we show uh oh, i know uh like we have been um very fortunate by a lady that depends on how the state is my 1st of the piece. i know that, you know, can speak on it, and i don't expect that from the funding to go to show you everything, get everything since the chunk of the machine doesn't show us the forces. we now work in the company on the p a corporation. the issue was all the competency should have partners. we

also should imagine now if we get down to the chair and the commission deliver to the company, so it is no way it's supposed to be an option, but but the 50 off the warranty. maybe the question that i think the government should find all the pieces that we could really make. she wanted me to become a fax, the quote, to make sure that the mother to mission the baby. i would like more than happy to come because you know, all right, nonsense. what do you make of this? is this the kind of thing that i'd be i'm it would say and if he did say this, perhaps he was misinterpreted. the quality is possible. if it was misinterpreted, but quite frankly, if you have the media and e, c o p,

a reporting this and it's incorrect, you would expect the ethiopian government to put on an official site statement saying, no, this is wrong, this is not what we believe. so i think we have to assume that he did say it, i mean, frankly, it is slightly on the hinged. uh, you know, the, it's interesting we just come through with. ready between aero track and if you combine just against the region of tay gray and they weren't able to defeat the 2 grand. so they have to end up with a lease agreement which was on the bus to show we say on the terms and both sides. so you know, the idea that, that the pins a gun to project force and the feet who eritrea to boot, she kenya, somalia. so don, i don't know, but it seems pretty online. i think that it's just one of those things that he might have said off the top of his head. yeah. when i, when i met, misinterpreted because he, perhaps of, of been talking about economic for so many,

you know, there he is in charge of an economy which is let's go once 13 and a half percent predicted g d p this year a growth of yeah. so it's going to be a bit careful of that figure because that figure really is a rebound from the war. i mean, the, the growth rates have probably only about 7 to 8 percent a year. i mean, they still substantial a very they've or they're very good read the growth rates. and if you, if you're certainly needs to have access to the see, i'm not arguing about that. but there's no need to go around the bombing by 8 by force. i mean, there's no reason why anybody would deny him quickly what, what do you, what do you make of it? how, how serious they should be take, i'll be, i'm is, and i just hope that before he's on sit down for the sake of africa that he was just joking or that he was miscoded, because there's no way that he could drop somebody's port and get away with it, it's not going to stand it to a trigger international and original assumptions right away. i need to get as in

this type of disruption in a more of the war they've, they've got a lot of what to do and he doesn't need this kind of destruction. so who courts what these comments have been aimed at in the 1st place ever trip apps or domestic audience, but if it was ever trial, i thought everything relations were on a much better footing with our a trail. since the, the 2018 piece deal. it can only be for domestic consumption because there is no there's nothing to be gain from franklin in all his name, but as eric true. yeah. he has good relations are very true. yeah. the relationship is not exactly what it should be. but if he has hopes of using a side, which is probably the part that they want to use to as part of some of the stuff that's coming out of a central i or trip. yeah, she cannot be threatening them. he's already trying to re negotiate deals with the

body, which is a place where he needs to focus on. and he has getting notice of the deals going with 5 king by trying to develop at port a lot. move in and it is done that talks was started with with by the game dies and asked, it is done. those are the kinds of things that he needs to be doing. if he's doing this for the domestic consumption is dangerous, and it can also lead to, uh, wanting to and of course, of course is inside of a retreat. it's solved by, but there were jim there try as unpredictable and they can seize on such comments to try and build legitimacy by, you know, muscle in and out. some of that. some, some of the actors that they think in league was that with the government, and i mean, i just, somebody about, even though they themselves seems to, i've, what doubt they have relations and because they have to come on and the me in, in uh, in the tv, i live in that too. great and that's my list. but this can be dangerous on both

sides. come on, i mean picking up on on what crocker was saying that up. can you afford a military conflict right now? i mean, if, if it came to that over point, we're all saying that, but possibly it wouldn't go that far that the prime minister's comments. so to be taken with a pinch of salt here, but easy, it just simply can't afford it. right. that kind of as well, i don't think it is an issue because that doesn't need the coaches don't nobody's. the guy did not have that you did that. i've met with people have inside the door and all the types of products and kind of descending extroverted instead. of an issue. so i don't see why the last few minutes. i can't believe martha said, that's the funds that i've said and like, you know, by force, you could never say that i was a, you know, i haven't guessed they never really done. there's nothing wrong with the ground and

just by the, by the they look at all the commission, you know, what operating and efficiency, memory and confidence guys, because it was something you don't have any time soon as you can see a lot, a lot of human happening as long as you know, cause i don't, i don't, i don't know whether you tell me or the front of the did. did you get the power to even talk? i'm all part of the term of me, you know, unfortunately we some, but uh, you know, you know, you talked to them off the when uh, that's much appreciate i don't know when on the media talk to him. so he sent me out the never. yeah, yeah, yeah. call me back in any kind of note to the bottom of the name of i guess it. okay, so you get the any kind of compass? nobody can. i know,

you know, depending on level issue, there's no need to catch you on a mountain. the rest has recently lifted sanctions off to concluding that issue is no longer engaging in the patent of gross violations of human rights to think that i'll be i would, would have made comments such as the one is that he has been reported to of late about the use of force if those sanctions have still been in place. the right, it's a very good question uh, especially as the they, they also many examples of gross human rights abuses by ethiopia, which the united states certainly knows about. i mean, it is slightly odd because the chinese have just renewed the rail connections with the booty and they pretty good now. and there's no reason why that shouldn't be developed. and uh, as, as being said, you know, the, the, the, or trend quotes of

a sub and of mississauga all both available and could be used and they were the ones, the law move forward in kenya has been talked about. and they the, the, if you have been to put some money into that and it's possible that they could get somebody in. so donald and even somalia. so there are lots of options. but i mean, you're, i'm afraid that prime is that i'd be tends to have these delusions of grand. yeah. we didn't make those these strange statements. i mean, i don't know if you're not really just building himself a 10000000000 dollar palace. why the country doesn't need it? he doesn't need it. why is he doing? i've no idea and the unit, but also he's talked about the point of starting an ethiopian navy. where is he going to put this? i was going to ask you, does this, this talk of using force for pulled? i mean, obviously the, the easier p a needs a port foot length of the airport for economic reasons. but do you think that, i mean, i mean i'm, it's mind that, that he has a view to, to restarting it,

a d. c o p, a navy, or what this upset is that is exactly what he has has said on the french at one time. said that they would help him to do this and would rebuild it. i mean, the pulse was tossing with the health and the british in, in what is now independent eritrea and they had, i think it was 3 or 4 bases the in the islands. it had in a sub and in the saw. and if you had a pretty good little navy, i believe it was the very well around the. and there was, unfortunately when an error trapped became independent, they lost the, the base of that winter winter straight. but let's not forget that a sub has been used by foreign nations to reject paul the, the saudis, and the u. a both used it during the war against the a, the who feet in yemen. so it's all as if eric tr, as opposed to having the naval the foreign bases on it soils, it could be done. these have to negotiate. you didn't say you're going to use force

is crazy. a corporate picking up on, on what money was saying just a few moments ago. what do you think that but ac up you would be looking to build it support in eritrea and you put your boat to your customer the tribute she has a virtual monopoly of a maritime trade in, in the region. all this point in some of the land which geographically is closest to to add, is, would february, i make sense from us to teacher perspective. what are the ramifications for that though, for somalia and eric trail, if you will be able to build this port in some of the land to so better all makes sense because of proximity but building day and it said defacto recognition of the independence of somebody land and that's not good, that's not going to fly. and um, the offers in the african union. and it's so the way to get around that is to work within

a god. and so you probably have to solve this session problem before better i becomes a real option because you don't want it to if you're going behind off, can you and i recognize in some other line i was somebody a is still contesting that. and so you bought it, i think you bought it is the out of place that because it already has the logistics . it already has the relationship with the body. the kindest on the port fees are very high, but you negotiate. you talk about that and be relations with it that will power tree is getting better aside is also possible. it is close to send try it. you'll be out with them the industrial past stocks. and so that's what you do. you don't trust them. anybody. you don't make reckless statements that can read that conflict in not know, ready, tablets, region that house nobody so that that's what i think they need to do and sit down and go when i go, should the port fees, ingenuity,

and talk to every tree. i try and get access to that ports in my side by side and then maybe look, i did a lot more option by february. you really have to be careful how you do that because that will be the factor recognition of a specific associating country. come out what, what are you as a, as a member of the therapy and part of and make of these reports that ever travel was offered a stay can easily open out lives in return for a deal over its portion in a sub. i understand that the deal is now off the table but, but what do you make of the fact that it was even discussed? and uh, what are they uh oh, she called me about. i know the fact that we care about the she says for each of them to do whatever you need to access to. but he yes,

if we can the auction the name of the account. so i made sure that that kind of the government who check on the company any way that they can access the should addition to that we can give, as we are, can't believe you some of the accuracy. we have to have 4 of the situation. we get it to the school. what does that addition when? when are you available to shall and which one is my i'm pretty much the give them whatever i spoke with in a very because in mind that attracted me. does it get it from the? yeah, they should money out, you know, would you be like i said yeah for is that in mind that even give you this gives you know, you got to go to the back of the movie never would be. yeah. before the by likely my mission. nothing left of the fact you can buy the loan,

the very will o'clock the find the like is being very proxy. make sure the relation with mostly the one that had to measure the plot. he very philosophy to whatever makes you that old piece of back. just to be able to, to, to get the whole month. i didn't really want to classify them. and that is you why the been one of the boxes at the neighborhood. so i think that should look into the commodity and i'm sure you're going to be that the process. what do you make of those reports about the stake and it's easier for you and adeline's being offered to eritrea and, and, and do you want to do you started to, to expand upon? what would you like to expand upon your thoughts about where if you hope you would want to cite this port as well. i mean uh,

i think 5 is narrow. try it and i'd be delighted to have a stake in as successful a project as ethiopian airlines. it's one of the really successful airlines in africa once it was uh, you know, fighting with canyon airlines. so that's gonna airlines, but it's streets ahead of everybody else. now and is, is fantastically well rounded, what sydney was until very recently. and uh, let's see. i mean, i'll be very happy to have that as if i was never try it. and, but i, i would be surprised if easy. it was, but it didn't give it up. i mean, i still think that the, the pulse of assets which has been lying, essentially on the used since the board of war in 1998 to thousands with, with eritrea. and all you have to do is basically rehabilitate put. send back the ethiopians who used to live the and used to act as the stevedores and provide and provide a lot of employment here locally. it would be a great idea and it will do money for the air trends. and there's one other thing

which is there's a huge potash deposit on the border between eritrea and e. c o, p in the, in the fall region. and there's no reason why that should not be develop. now, the chinese of taking the big stake and at that with me building another port, probably because it's such a big project, it's $200.00 a year project. so there are lots of things that they could call for a song, but it does require talking and waving a big stick and saying you're going to use force is not the way for you, but you mentioned china, a mazda. and what about some of those nations and they're continuing engagement in, in the whole of africa. what does that mean? so easier if he has plans the toilet does being that, you know, they are competitive, but i mean, you know, because their competitors, when they re bought it, uh, you know, the, the, the u a has huge investments in a lot of the ports, for example, they had a, a big stake in engine bocce. that was stakes in, uh, the, the, the,

some of the ports. and uh yes, of course you, you'd have to, you, you go to fight, feel commercial rights, should we say within this? but i mean, they should be peaceful competitions. and there's no reason why the us in the pull it shouldn't be developed, answer become. busy very successful, i mean the whole of aggregate has huge potential, but it does need to learn to live with itself in a peaceful way. and if that can happen, there's no reason why why it shouldn't develop and become a real boon to the whole of africa. parker, as, as well as he was saying that, you know, the, the region has huge potential is, is large scale economic integration. do you think of a possibility in the near future or a pipe dream or can neighboring nations benefit from? for me to europe is rapid economic growth. a writing on his coattails? is absolutely, i mean, it is the largest contra about a 120000000 people expected to double in population in teddy as the economy is

growing. and because it needs is made best because it doesn't have access to that. but i see there is independence built into that relationship and so was a little bit of creative thinking. you could have the original economy that works for everybody, and they need to talk and it's your pet going to be pregnant. anybody already has problems with 5 egypt over the dom. it doesn't need any more conflict. and so original kaiser shows like, you know, a god needs to get involved. they've been talking a lot about promoting rigid, not trade. the advert got 5 coincidence out free trade area initiates, everybody talks about promoting into a african trade business, and there's a stop at golden opportunity to, to solve problems and create jobs. so everybody in the origin and everybody can benefit being 5 if they want to get out bob. so nobody knew we don't need price,

we don't need conflict. alright, quickly, if, if, if we assume for a moment that his comments were directed at a domestic audience, they weren't for the, for international consumption. and you mentioned it attention with the, with egypt. do you think that i'll be, i'm it is, is the man to it what, why is his plans are perhaps a necessary as far as the economic growth of the fee over here is concerned that do you think that i'll be out of it as is the man who can, who can negotiate to a deal, the right deal for ethiopia and the region. well, he did win a nobel peace prize, so i hope that he can make peace again. he's made peace with me best before he made a piece of paper i retreat. he made peace with saddam. he made peace of the body so he can do so again. and i, i hope that's enough people in his, in this party at home i encouraging him to sit cooperation, not and also, i mean,

but he made his statement in front of the investors know for an invest, i want to move to a region where does conflicts and so this is one of the ways to scale that foreign direct investment. it needs to stop that talk and figure out how to make peace. and i think that because it's, may i please in the past to can do so. again, monitoring, would you agree with that? oh, absolutely not. i mean one of the interesting things is actually the relationship with egypt has not improved. they have agreed to find some way of dealing with the the key issue which is the grand renee song stand which was built on the blue nile which the egyptians. and it seems me so very worried about. but it's only a hydro electric got down. it's not going to use the water for you see a pin irrigation. so the, the difference now seems a little bit more happy about it, and it's going to produce a lot of electricity, some of which will be available in su, don, maybe further afield,

and say you begin to see an alternative, ethiopia way ties into the region, develops the region works with the region and is a dynamo for growth, and that is certainly a possibility. but the, one of the big problems is that the, one of the neighbors in, in aircraft pressed into sauce is very unpredictable. and you can never be sure when he's going to stir up conflict again. so, you know, it's a tough region, hard to work in, but it can be done and you see up here. uh, you know, is, could be a best in of, of, of both development and peace if it's let in the right way. but i, i come back to the mountain to the my very 1st question that the question i asked some 25 minutes ago about whether the, the front of this distribution should be taken seriously. here. obviously not. well, you always have to take a prime minister seriously, but i would always judge people by the actions then by their woods. let's not

forget that when they uh, for men to that war against too great. they processed it for 2 years. it was a 2 year preparation by if the a p, a and aero tragic attack take, right. they never mentioned it. so let's look at the, what the actions rather than the words. okay. the gentleman, i'm afraid we have to end up many things to you. oh, come on, how she moved amongst implants and quite cool to all. as always, thank you for watching. you can see the program. i get it any time by go into the website which is 0 dot com for further discussion. join us on our facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash h. i insight story. and you can try the conversation on twitter handle at a inside story from the adrian fund again, from the st here. and so how, thanks for watching. let's see. you again fi, so that the

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