so if you have low to dry across southern areas, i would try to cause northern parts of africa and even up to the northwest to temperatures slowly, but surely easing away the award winning program 27 years and thoughtfully consignment. it's an extreme form of isolation. i think it's designed to break international. well. clos, janet, 80 percent of 80 percent is controlled by god. bring programs to a spine. you don't pay any time on an amount of that. i'm trying to push myself all the time. pushing, pushing see the world from a different perspective on allergies. aaron, a copy of the prime minister, such as land golf country will get direct access to a force of the i'm as wants to increase the code on the course, but how far so you prefer to go and what coding c o p has made us all set,

this is inside storage, the other welcome to the program i major. instead of going to dc. opiate has been landlocked since arrow track gained its independence in 1993 for 30 years. it's been dependent upon its neighbors, especially just booty. access to ports of international shipping routes. if you pay as prime, it has to be, um, it says the high cost on the sustainable he's reportedly said that if you will secure, direct access to a port peacefully or if necessary by force. what does he mean? what are the implications for neighboring nations? we'll be discussing hold of this in a few moments without guess. but 1st, the report from victoria gate can be the pulse of diabetes situated on one of the

busiest shipping rates in the world. 95 percent v as inputs and exports passed through here. e, c o p a has been look since era tray gained independence and 1993 support of the sab handle 2 thirds via p as trade for 5 years until will broke out between the neighbors in 1998. since then, it's relied on other posts in the region. ethiopian prime minister abbey ahmed says the state is, quote, is closely and unsustainable. she wants to have a pool of its own spit, she reportedly told the meeting of investors. and businessman last week, the d. c. o, p a will get support by peaceful means, but if that fails, it will use force in a bit to tap into shipping words. the government's recently started negotiations with its neighbors and has reportedly offered eritrea a 30 percent stake in the national carrier and exchange for direct access to its port. it'd be a, has one of the fastest growing economies in the world. it is 2023 world economic

outlook. the international monetary fund predicted g. d p would increase 13 and a half percent this year that the government says development is being held back. it seems determined to address this. something neighboring countries will be following closely. victoria gates and beef inside story the. so let's bring it, i guess for today is discussion from edison about with joined by come on, how she's my mood and then the of the easier part of that in london as much in plots, a journalist, specializing in the horn of africa. he's also a fellow at the institute of pulling wells, studies at the university of london, and from washington dc with joined by clark, who norma, who was a cd electra and shannon, all of the international peace and conflict resolution program at the american university. gentlemen, welcome to or come on as you mama. let's start with you. let's clear up something

right from the start. did probably um it actually say that he'd get access to a port by peaceful means negotiation or by force if necessary. but if he did make those remarks, how seriously should we take them a lot. thank you. so for we show, uh oh, i know uh like we have been uh are reported by a lady that depends on how you said it by force. the piece. uh, i never heard of that, you know, could speak on the and i don't expect that from the new address to show you everything. if you could tell me the machine that doesn't show us the go to the 1st, we now work in the company on the the, the corporation,

the issue was resolved, the company should have partners. we also share nationalities. hello. this is why you get down to the chair and the committee to deliver to the company. so it is no way it's supposed to be an option, but, but the 50 off the warranty. very, very crucial. but i think the government should find all the pieces that we could really make. she wanted me to become a fax, the quote, to make sure that the mother to mission the baby i would like to make, you know, you know, all right martin, what do you make of this? is this the kind of thing that i'd be i'm it would say, and if he did say this, perhaps he was misinterpreted. the quality is possible to say it was misinterpreted, but quite frankly, if you have the media and e, c o p,

a reporting this and it's incorrect, you would expect the ethiopian government to put on an official site statement saying, no, this is wrong. this is not what we believe. so i think we have to assume that he did say it. i mean, frankly, it is likely on the hinged. uh, you know, the, its interesting, we just come through with. ready between uh, arrow track and if you combine just against the region of tay gray and they weren't able to defeat the 2 grands, they have to end up with a piece agreement which was on the bus to show we say on the terms and both sides. so you know, the idea that, that the pins a gun to project force and the feet who eritrea to boot, she kenya, somalia. so don, i don't know, but it seems pretty online. i think that it's just one of those things that he might have said off the top of his head. yeah. when i, when i met, misinterpreted because he, perhaps of, of been talking about economic for so many,

you know, there he is in charge of an economy which is let's go once 13 and a half percent predicted g d p this year a growth of yes, but so it's going to be a bit careful of that figure because that figure really is at the rebound from the war. i mean, the, the growth rates have probably only about 7 to 8 percent a year. i mean that so substantial a very, very, very, very good read the growth rates. and if you, if you search the needs to have access to the see, i'm not arguing about that. but there's no need to go around the bombing by 8 by force. i mean, there's no reason why anybody would deny him quickly what, what do you, what do you make of it? how, how serious they should be take, i'll be, i'm as, and i just hope that before he's on sit down for the sake of africa that he was just joke. you know that he was miscoded because there's no way that he could drop somebody's port and get away with it. it's not going to stand it to a tray. got international and original assumptions right away. i need to get as in

this type of disruption any more of the war they've, they've got a lot of what to do and he doesn't need this kind of destruction. so who courts, what would these comments have been aimed at in the 1st place? they were tramp absent or domestic audience, but if it was ever trial, i thought everything relations were on a much better footing with our a trail. since the, the 2018 piece deal, it can only be for domestic consumption because there is no, there's nothing to be gain from franklin in all his name as eric. true. yeah. he has good relations are very true. yeah. the relationship is not exactly what it should be, but if he has hopes of using a side which is probably the part that they want to use to as part of some of the stuff that's coming out of a centralized trip retail. yeah. she cannot be threatening them. he's already trying to re negotiate deals with the body, which is

a place where he needs to focus on. and he is getting all these other deals going with 5 king um by trying to develop at port a lot, move in and it is done by tops, was started with a website that became, dies and asked, it is done. those are the kinds of things that he needs to be doing if he is doing this for a domestic consumption is dangerous. and it can also lead to uh, on the internet. of course, of course, is inside of advert trio itself but, but at the gym their truck is unpredictable and they can seize on such comments to try and build legitimacy by, you know, mostly and out some of that some, some of the actors that they think i'm in league was that with the government, and i mean, i just somebody about even though they themselves seems to i've what doubt they are relations because they have to come on and the me in, in uh, in that t p. i lived in that too great. and that's my lives, but this can be dangerous on both sides. come on, i mean, picking up on,

on what parker was saying that uh, can you afford a military contract right now? i mean, if, if it came to that over port when it roll saying that, but possibly it, it wouldn't go that far that the prime minister's comments have to be taken with a pinch of salt here. but anything it just simply can't afford it right now. kind of as well, i don't think it is an issue because that doesn't need to call to the back nor have that you did that. i've met with people haven't started any war and all the types of products and kind of descending extroverted instead of an issue. so i don't see why the last few minutes. i believe, like i said, that's the funds that i've said and like, you know, by force, you could never say that i was a, you know, i haven't guessed they have really done. there's nothing wrong with the ground. and

just by the, by the, they look at all the commissions, the upgrade and efficiency memory and confidence, guys, because it was something you don't have any time soon as you can see, a lot of off i've seen that happen a lot of did you know, cause i don't, i don't, i don't know whether you tell me or the front of the game is against the power. even if i all positive term with me, you know, unfortunately we 7, but uh, you know, you know, you talked to them of the vin. uh, that's much appreciated or you know, when on the media talk and so he sent me out the never yeah, yeah, yeah. call me back in any kind of note uh to the bottom of the name of i guess it. okay, so you get the any kind of coverage you know,

get on the, you know, depending on level issue, there's no need to catch you on a mountain. the rest has recently lifted sanctions off to concluding that the issue is no longer engaging in the patent of gross violations of human rights. to think that i'll be, i would, would have made comments such as the one is that he has been reported to of late about the use of force. if those sanctions have still been in place the right. it's a very good question. uh, especially as the they, they also many examples of gross human rights abuses by ethiopia, which the nearby state certainly knows about. i mean, it is slightly odd because the chinese have just renewed the rail connections with the booty. i'm they pretty good now, and there's no reason why that shouldn't be developed. and uh, as, as being said, you know, the, the, the, or trend quotes of

a sub and saw all both available and could be used on the ones. the law move forward in kenya has been told to boss, and they the, the, if you have been to put some money into that and it's possible that they could get somebody in. so donald and even some malia. so there are lots of options. but i mean, you're, i'm afraid that prime is, that'd be, tends to have these delusions of grand. yeah. we didn't make those these strange statements. i mean, i don't know if you know what, he's just building himself a 10000000000 dollar palace. why the country doesn't need it? he doesn't believe it. why is he doing it? i've no idea. i'm the one that will. so he's talked about the pro starting an ethiopian navy. where is he going to put this? i was going to ask you, does this, this talk of using force for pulled? i mean, obviously the, the easier p a needs a port foot length of the for economic reasons. but do you think that that, and i mean i'm, it's mind that, that he has a view to, to restarting it,

a d. c o p, a navy? what this up sir does, that is exactly what he has has said on the french at one time. said that they would help him to do this and would rebuild it. i mean, the polt was tossing with the health and the british in, in and what is now independent eritrea and they had, i think it was 3 or 4 bases the in the islands. it had in a sub and in the saw. and if you had a pretty good little navy, i believe it was the very well around the and that was unfortunately when it aired, track became independent. they lost the, the base of that winter winter straight. but let's not forget that a sub has been used by foreign nations to reject paul the, the saudis, and the u. a both use it during the war against the a, the who feet in yemen. so it's all as if eric try as opposed to having the naval, the foreign base is on its soils, it could be done. these have to negotiate. you didn't say you're going to use force

is crazy. a corporate picking up on, on what body was saying just a few moments ago. where do you think that but if you, if you would be looking to build it, support in eritrea into your boat to your customer, bip gibbons, you have a virtual monopoly of a maritime trade in, in the region, all this port and some of the land which geographically, is closest to to add is, uh, would february, it makes sense for us to teach in perspective what are the ramifications for that they're for somalia and eric trail, if you will be able to build this port in some of the land to so better all makes sense because of proximity, but building day and it said defacto recognition of the independence of somebody land and that's not good. that's not going to fly. and um the offers in the african union. um and so the way to get around that is to work within the god.

and so you probably have to solve this session problem before better i becomes a real option because you don't want it to if you're going behind off, can you? and it recognizes and some other line was somebody. yeah. it's still contesting that. and so you bought it. i think you bought it is the out of place that because it already has the logistics. it already has the relationship with the body. the kindest on the port fees are very high, but you negotiate, you talk about that and be relations will fit the criteria is getting better aside is also possible. it is close to send try it. you'll be out with them the industrial past stocks and so that's what you do. you don't trust them. anybody. you don't make reckless statements that can read, not conflict in not know, ready a tablet region that helps nobody so that that's what i think they need to do. i sit down and go when i go, should the port fees, ingenuity and talk to every tree. i try and get access to that ports in my side

by side, and then maybe look at a lot more option by february. you really have to be careful how you do that because that will be defective recognition of especially as i said in country come out. what, what are you as a, as a member of the therapy and part of and make of these reports with eritrea was offered a stay can easily open out lives in return for a deal over its portion in a sub. i understand that the deal is now off the table but, but what do you make of the fact that it was even discussed? and uh, what are they? uh oh, she called me about. i know the fact that we care about, you know, she said was going on um uh, each of them do whatever it was for the pc to access to. but he, yes,

we can the auction, the name of the account. so that, that would kinda give him a new check on the company any way that we can access the should addition to that we can give, as we are on your campus of accuracy, we have to have for the situation, we get it to the school. what does that efficient way way more valuable to shall in which it comes off my my, i'm pick them. i choose to give them whatever i spoke with in a very because with mine that attracted me. doesn't my again yeah, they should money out, you know, would you be like i said yes or is that in mind that even given just you know, we are going and i thought well, maybe never would be. yeah. before the by likely my mission.

nothing left of the fact you can buy the loan the last time the like is being very proxy. make sure the relation with mosley's, the one that had to match the plot. he very proxy. whatever makes you the old piece of that just to be able to, to, to get the whole month. i didn't really want to class. and that is you want to been one of the boxes at the neighborhood. so i think that should be looking at a very product commodity and i'm sure you're going to be that the process. what do you make of those reports about the stake and it's easier for you and adeline's being offered to eritrea and, and, and do you want to do you started to, to expand upon? what would you like to expand upon your thoughts about where if you hope you would want to cite this port?

well, i mean uh, i think 5 has never tried it and i'd be delighted to have a stake in as successful a project as ethiopian airlines. it's one of the really successful airlines in africa once it was a, you know, fighting with canyon airlines. so that's gonna airlines, but it's streets ahead of everybody else now and is, is fantastically well rounded. what sydney was until, very recently. and let's see, i mean, i'll be very happy to have that if i was never tried and but i, i would be surprised if easy. it was fair to give it up. i mean, i still think that the, the pulse of as of which has been lying essentially on the used since the board of war in 1998 to thousands with, with eritrea. and all you have to do is basically rehabilitate put. send back the ethiopians who used to live the news, to act as the stevedores and provide and provide a lot of employment here locally. it would be

a great idea and we'll do the money for the air trends. and there's one other thing which is there's a huge potash deposit on the border between eritrea and e. c o, p, in the, in the fall region. and there's no reason why that should not be develop. now, the chinese of taking the big stake and at that with me building another port, probably because it's such a big project, it's $200.00 a year project. so there are lots of things that they could call for a song, but it does require talking and waving a big stick and saying you're going to use force is not the way for you, but you mention china, a mazda, and what about a gulf nations and they're continuing engagement in, in the whole of africa. what does that mean? so easier if he has plans the toilet does mean that you know, that our competitors, but i mean, you know, because their competitors, when they re bought it, uh, you know, the, the, the u a has huge investments in a lot of the ports, for example, they had a, a big stake in engine bocce that was stakes in the, the,

the, some of the ports. and uh yes, of course you, you'd have to, you, you go to fight, feel commercial rights. should we say within this? but i mean they should be peaceful competitions. and there's no reason why the po shouldn't be developed, answered become. busy very successful, i mean the whole of aggregate has huge potential, but it does need to learn to live with itself in a peaceful way. and if that can happen, there's no reason why it shouldn't develop and become a real boon to the whole of africa. park, or as, as ultimate saying that, you know, the, the region has huge potential is, is large scale economic integration. do you think of a possibility in the near future or a pipe dream or can neighboring nations benefit from? for me to europe is rapid economic growth, a writing on his coattails? the absolutely any itself is the largest country about a 120000000 people expected to double in population in 30 as the economy is

growing. and because it needs is made best because it doesn't have access to that. but i see there is independence built into that relationship. and so what a little bit of creative fainting you can have a rental economy that works for everybody. and they need to talk. and if you're not going to be pregnant, anybody it already has problems with 5 egypt over the dom. it doesn't need any more conflict. and so original kaiser shows like, you know, god needs to get involved. they've been talking a lot about promoting original trade. the african 5, coincident out free trade area initiates, and everybody talks about promoting in traffic and trade business. and there's a stop at golden opportunity to, to solve problems and create jobs. so everybody in the origin and everybody can benefit being 5 if they want to get out bob. so nobody knew we don't need price,

we don't need conflict. alright, quickly, if, if, if we assume for a moment that his comments were directed at a domestic audience, they went for a for international consumption. and you mentioned it attention with the, with egypt. do you think that i'll be, i've it is, is the man to it what? why is his plans are all perhaps a necessary as far as economic growth of easier pure is concerned. but do you think that i'll be of it as is the man who can, who can negotiate a deal, the right deal for me to help you and the region a well, he did win a nobel peace prize, so i hope that he can make peace again he's made peace with me best before he made a piece of paper i retreat. he made peace with saddam. he made peace of the body so he can do so again. and i, i hope that's enough people in his, in this potty at home i encouraging him to sit cooperation, not and also, i mean,

but he made his statement in front of the investors know for an invest, i want to move to a region where does conflicts and so this is one of the ways to scale of that foreign direct investment. it needs to stop that talk and figure out how to make peace. and i think that because it's me a piece in the past to can do so again. last name, would you agree with that? oh, absolutely not. i mean, one of the interesting things is actually the relationship with egypt has not improved. they have agreed to find some way of dealing with the the key issue which is the grand renee song stand which was built on the blue nile which the egyptians and the suit me so very worried about. but it's only a hydro electric got down. it's not going to use the water for you see a pin irrigation. so the, the difference now seems a little bit more happy about it and it's going to produce a lot of electricity, some of which will be available in. so don,

maybe further afield and say you begin to see an alternative, ethiopia way ties into the region, develops the region, works with the region and is a dynamo for growth. and that is certainly a possibility. but the, one of the big problems is that the, one of the neighbors in, in aircraft pressed into sauce is very unpredictable. and you can never be sure when he's going to stir up conflict again. so, you know, it's a tough region, hard to work in, but it can be done and you see up here uh, you know, is, could be a best in of, of, of both development and peace if it's let in the right way. but i, i come back mountain to the my very 1st question, the question i asked some 25 minutes ago about whether the, the prime minister should be, should be taken seriously here. obviously not as well. you always have to take the prime minister seriously, but i would always judge people by the actions then by their woods. let's not

forget that when they uh, for men to that war against too great. they processed it for 2 years. it was a 2 year preparation by if the a p, a and aero tried to attack take, right. they never mentioned it. so let's look at the, what the actions rather than the words. okay, the gentleman, i'm afraid we have to end up many things to you. oh, come on. how she moved amongst implants and quite cool to all. as always, thank you for watching. you can see the program, i get it any time i go into the website, which is 0 dot com for further discussion. join us on our facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash h a insight story. and you can turn the conversation on twitter handle at a inside story from the adrian fund again, from the st here. and so how facts are watching? let's see again, fi. so that the

the says main of itself is to take a month, you know, to have the biggest stages but they stand as tightens in the face of the freshest fall right? to move, if you want to show the world that the good guys can sometimes when they are the force behind jim said probably phenomena defend to make football one which is here. the

little guy won't be attending the summit in south africa with an international warrant out for the rest, for suspected war. fine,

a tiny travel anywhere close untold stories from across asia, pacific $1.00 oh $1.00 east. explain the issues affecting the close the most populous region. the rates for the white house keeps up with donald trump take pump, and the republican party. these 1st debates or holds its own private people empower, investigates. the topic impacts on ukraine's fragile items, and that's the temperature of solar and biodiversity plummets the global environmental facility to coordinate financing for international action. assembled in canada focused on l. g 0. the soldiers and the west african country of need to announce a close saying they've dissolved the constitution and close the board is the.