it was a chance to make a difference. i felt that it was in full and the idea that there was part of what i have to do, i have the opportunity to understand that my journey is bigger than i can actually create meaningful team for my platform. if i choose to do so generation school, it's a new series coming soon on. i'll just text in that sent a walk through a ton time times formally to back from exile was immediately dis, haynes. he supports the new government, which is by far the minute change that ousted him, the witness of the election around in the cold. so what next for thailand? this is inside story, the hello and welcome to the program. i'm nora. kyle,

thailand's democracy enters another phase just as a tower and political figure from his post were tons from exile, tax engine. what was west from the airport to prison? to start? so having an 8 year sentence for the strong speculation that he and his plaid type policy haven't arrangements with the powerful military for his return and for the formation of a new government. meanwhile, the move forward policy, which 1 may, is election is sidelined, cut out as democracy has been fragile, with governments overthrown by the generals who remain in overall control will be picking through what all this means for thailand in a moment with our guests. but 1st, here's tourney, chang in buying coke with move on. what people think of the latest political, many of us. it's being a dramatic 24 hours in thailand. text and shinning what the former prime minister being and self imposed exile the 15 years. but arguably, the most influential thinker and type politics for more than 2 decades were tenants . he was made of the apple,

but huge crowds. then what's the way by the police to the supreme court, and then on to jail, to stop an a, to a to then in the middle of the night taken to hospital the medical complications and well, all of that was going on, tyler, and go to new prime minister of the full months of political deadlock shirts. that's how we send representing the prototype political party became 2nd in the general election. he'll now form a coalition government. but in order to do that, he's going to have to join with 3 parties, a light, the military, part of the last administration. and the big picture is tight versus voted. overwhelmingly for reform and for change. move forward the punch in the one the election has been shoved out of the side and put time this coalition government is going to find it very hard to create any real reform. how much of the frustrations of those votes is going to spill out onto the streets as they have in the past? will tax and has been such a divisive figure in the past, proved to be

a peace maker or trouble making. tony chang for inside story. thank of the will. joining us now a guest in buying colt pen, child us every one of the specialist on thailand's electro system and an associate professor at my adult university in st. paul is duncan mccall, good professor of public policy and global affairs, non young technological university. he's the co also of the texan eyes ation of thailand. and also in bangkok is cas, it per wrote me a, a full met type a form, a for an administrative. thailand's, he's a democratic policy politician and a full my yellow shots active. it's very warm. welcome to all of you. that's it. let's start with you. it's no coincidence isn't that tire tax and has returned home on the same day, but his policy is know, many for prime minister one the votes in parliament was there

a deal between plants high and the ministry which as well, you know, a 2 traditional enemies and so we saw on the match the elections on the 14 of may, the move forward, unexpectedly and beyond expectation and so on. at 140000000 the bullets unprecedented and expect that. and if the poppy had defeated, if we are the political party, especially the established political party like to put a tight under the leadership of the father of 5 and use the same as well as the established poppies, backed by a couple of generals who stated she took who they bought it in 2014 and the move solve a has been coming out with a policy campaign and platform to bring about

a drastic changes and transform mission of the kingdom of thailand to become more democratic cause a problem. next is i'm trying to jump in the because we do know all of this from the outcome of the election. but what we want to know is how tax in managed to come back home on the same day that his policy to play a type policy was able to put impala the normandy for prime minister by forming a coalition with 2 pro ministry parties. the minute trip was having ousted him some over 10 years ago before 20 years ago for i think there has. but there have been a lot of behind the scene negotiation between toxin and the military establishment . and the conservative element of the state and thailand without part of the it, because these to the minute treat implants high, a traditional enemies within the tight political. it's fair but now they have a more or more would you be. busy dangerous comment, any me,

me in the name of the football would probably be that what that to bring about changes. and perhaps even though the military general was at the so on the icon. so, but these, they don't want to see chain, they want to see this paper as cool. so eating that send us the kind of spanish. so it's hard for them to come to get as positive because establishment and to oppose to the, to any changes that would make thailand the kingdom a more democratic one more or put more back to sick bay tree. sorry. pump out a. this is a real c change for thailand doesn't hits the parts high and the minute tree joining forces at least to secure the return of tax and, and to stay in power. does this mean that plants high has become positive establishment? well, yes, this is, this is fairly clear that out what i have starting to build military political parties and, you know, to leave all forward behind to be an opposition party. this is not,

i couldn't be unpopular tired. so because you know, in the next election what time you've spent a lot of problems getting the election convinced and i was only election a result because most of the types of parker as you know, the ones the tire can be a leader and a prime minister and from the government to get that bid that move forward. this is a form of democratic society sunday and i think that as a police are pointing to what type party now switching to solve the problem really to become a man. so then that's why, as you mentioned earlier, that the do a visual being put by a party and a tool where they could be party, they kind of fall together in order to bring texting back. and at the same time, that's with another 3 weeks political party continues to maintain that power in the college and government. and then they continue to load a real country, a new tire advice again. duncan, we've been here before, haven't way in thailand, the losing policy guessing to rule the winning policy sidelines except normally the losing policy or is every election since 2001 the losing policy is being put hi,

i think yeah, i always like good saying this time is usually well known on the election results in a thoroughly democratic manner. but we've also found in the past is that the election results is one thing and the outcome is quite another example in the last of action in 2019 things didn't turn out exactly as plans. the military side didn't get the kind of edge that they wanted me to call them. and, and lo and behold, the election commission disappeared behind close tools to recalculate to the method of allocating popular seats. they bought a few seats to some small micro politics that no one expected to be in the moment. and then lo and behold, the permanent latrete conservative side was able to form a couple of issues and run the country for the next 4 years. so not so many people were aware of that kind of behind the scenes, but new but thoughts this time with leading stream, the vs machinations of the senate to blog because the move forward lead a full be coming from houston is just really raw the to improve pro,

lot of people's taste that confronted with the reality that that's i was on not necessarily the determining factor and it was actually got the whole government. and that's because it's true that there's a common enemy and move forward became a very clear comment. and i mean, when this extremely strong showing up did, but many people believe when we started hearing us as early as february or before that there was already an understanding between tax in specifically himself and the leaders all that was part of military policy. some when the techs and it's not just about prototype, it's really about him, and he has a well mean desire to reach out to try them for his the purposes of he's quite ready to sacrifice the, to the future. eventually, just of his policy for his own personal. okay. okay, got it from you. what do you think toxins own purposes? um, why has he come back now?

well, i think he's getting old, he's 74 years old. you want to have to come back and nowadays an opening because he was able to reach out to the military establishment and make a deal. so he might, he succeeded in making the deal for himself and he bowed. i think it was you good enough to discard the mass of part and so on the matter what time did he make this deal to come back? well, i think it's a personal wish and so on. and secondly, is that keeping that one to say, he's probably using the government, they can re, quote the situation, total population policy measures and so on. so use a risk taking with the hope that they could recover later and overcome the i think the found me doable challenges for companies on to move forward and try to do you think we're going to see tanks and behind falls for any length of time he's

supposed to be serving 8. yes, i think here. and he said a couple of hours for he was west 1000 put into hospital which correspondent noted was rather strange given. he looked perfectly healthy when he arrived at the airport just a few hours earlier. doing part of this deal is but he is going to work for you. well yes, you know, this is not, this is not a bar type person that you know, a big person that be enjo and, you know, doing this kind of story, you know, and then moving from sales, who has the whole and then it has disappeared. is this not the 1st time, but the when he come back to these times, i think, you know, and used to play a role in politics and he's gonna work on the policy behind the scenes. even though he, you know, at the point he's own people and you know, learn how to become the man, but of all of his family. and he himself said that he doesn't want to be involved in politics anymore. but you can see on how to inform my boyfriend, government, and hiring driver for his daughter to become the know to become the kind of the

nation as a prime minister on these kind of being, you know, as i professor duncan say, it's all about himself. he thought about political party is not about the time, and it's not about the high people with others. and that's why, you know, is this going to mean but hi and also to this college and go, i'm going to be a hard time to go to country and then, and it's actually in the next election. but probably do spend a lot of trouble in order to be on who been to be the election in the next election as well. so i'm human said that they have a high potential to put high have you food apart, because you know, they can not really get any more support from back support or any more except the real read time that they might support put higher texting in the following elections, so i think these kind of move past and the time party boom at the parties. so acting that these families have a hard time to so live in the type of especially to be in the next election. do you

agree with that? because we know that for us, i lost a lot of its votes to the move forward policy, but now it is in government and it's got the support of the military behind it. that's a pretty powerful force as we've seen in time politics. do you think we're going to be seeing for us hi, serving out the whole tom the batteries was very other play. yeah. because it could be undergoing imperative instability either of what kinds of things. what needs to happen over the next couple of years, for example, the change in the current role that allows the senates to have a kind of veto through the mentoring focus on who gets to be prime minister and that expires in may of next year. so the possibility of some reorganization of the room and coalition is starting upstair. it's not clear whether this got which is really likely to be able to go to, to one of the big questions with a party like personalized. why do people think rich and you know, i've seen other countries people play with the bodies but for you,

since they don't leave the politics because place all that we'll see is basically extensively in doing the right thing for the country. so prototype does not very strong low power networks with the bad m. p 's, who can deliver photos on the ground to some extent irrespective of the performance of the policy. so the time may be able to continue mobilizing some of those in the traditional hall as in the north of all these, what we saw in this last election was an incredible erosion of those own most of the results take. so what's really interesting now that it's scary, not just prototype of the, of the sort of traditional policies as well is how does the election gain change? is it not best about low power that was an influence and, and to give some improvements in the body. and how much more is it about big ideas and questions and ways of the policy presents itself idea of what you expect. because baptizing trouble must be how much by move forward could be covered by all

the policies. but take the mental all aggressive route and future. and as we saw in the flexion, the type people have spoken now off to a more progressive form of politics. the only thing that stopping them cause it for romeo is the millet tray with its power and its grip impala. as duncan said in may, next you will lose its grip on the senate. do think it's taking a gamble by getting into bed, but plats high because what size we know is the traditional enemy of the ministry. will it be seeking to change the constitution to try and less than the minute? truth power? well, i think good i the day to be tired general so well, i think the control to political parties, there are no longer active military bus. and no, i don't think that they still retain much influence inside the military establishment. so in that sense, they have to cling on to the political arena and by typing associating themselves

with the type of taxi and then so on. it also prolongs that political life and enjoying seeing the affairs of the kingdom as to the ability to establish man and a self at the moment they kind of sit tight. because of the fact that the most solid wood wishes to reform drastically, the ability to reestablish been now we will no longer take class. because i suspect that that use already the, the, the standing at the agreement between the military establishment and the talk stating that the pipe not to touch the reform question, the military as a whole. so that's like, keep in tech and so on going on. but let me go back one thing about when talk soon, he's also waiting for this be to be submitted to. he gets mad just the, the king. so he's waiting for the pot and also so in that send the in years to delta will not be they become valid, forgive him. so he holds on that one. and they might be some sort of

a tacit understanding that the petition would be a supplement. it so it gives mattress the just from 1745, g m t 8, 45 pm in moscow and way interrupting our regular programming on knowledge is 0 to bring you breaking news. russian officials say you have any pre goshen has been killed in a plane crash. 7 passengers and 3 crew were on board. the cross which was on route from moscow to saint petersburg gift any for goshen is of course the head of the russian. most mary wagner group, let's go to daniel hawkins, who was live in moscow. daniel, bring us up to speed with what's been happening on this breaking you story to what information has been coming in very quickly over the last 1015 minutes so. so what we know full fact so far a private and jet has come down on route from las go to st. petersburg. it's

believe to but in bryce $600.00 across, it came down in the theater theater homeless, which was around 300 kilometers a north of moscow around hoff weights between the 2 cities. we understand from russian media reports that you've got any precaution as well as his right add minded to meet with the old king and all the wagner officials hall ranking about the officials was uh on the passenger list of this plane. we understand precautions, press secretary and all those other post associates call and get through to him at this moment in time. it's laura officially confirmed yet by any official sources, precaution was uh that has been killed or was physically a boldest. that prophet has been confirmed. he was listed as a passenger on this croft wheel, so that was 2nd that crossed the register for goshen was flying out of moscow has turned around and is currently going to land in the capital remains to be seen who is on board of that 2nd that croft at this moment in time and looking at the

pictures of the crash. i mean, do we know at the stage how and why the pain went down? this is very early days. emotions the services are on seeing that looking at 2 theories currently one is fairly being reported as a site by russian media is that there was some sort of explosion on board, which caused the spring to come down and uncontrolled. the sent in a spa and from the sky we're seeing is all i witness the videos. quite shopping. seems of the plane just spiraling down from the, from the sky with allegedly a wing that was come off. it's, it's blown. offers full of the following, some sort of explosion i witnessed is a describing. they had 2 loud bangs before this plane came down. the other c a we of course and again at this stage is just the ferry until we get official confirmation from emergency services is. but this was a struck by

a defense systems in the region. now at defense systems, of course, on, on lots in many russian regions bordering the complex zone and ukraine and develop good all region. for instance, this region we're talking about is no one that has been targeted previously by drug of tax or anything of that nature. so it was the 2 theories currently being floated by russian media and by emergency services, but was still ultimately a waiting for the official comment. indeed, what was quite interesting with this when we spoke about this about a half an hour ago when the news 1st broke, was quite interesting. daniel is that the russian authorities were very quick to say that you have any precautions name was on the passenger list. stop this pain that crush. what do you make of that? as well as i say, his name has been confirmed as on the list bottles of yet say which is the russian aviation or forward say um we do know precaution um let this means any back in

june. uh they had very serious charges leveled against them. so we had every reason to perhaps hide is moving, so be very cautious about so what he was doing in russia. but there is speculation on social media that he might have been registered on board displaying, but physically been on another plane. again, this is just speculation. at this point, i will need to wait for further confirmations from emergency services as to what he was on the plan. we are getting statements those saying that due to the nature of this crash due to the plane, really bunny up on the grounds that it will require quite some time. and so i've been, defy, physically, the victim is that all of this crash likely that going to require some time to uh, to look into that. now, as you say we, we are for speculating right now because it's early days. i'm assuming that you have any for goals shade has died and that he was on the explain and that this was

not an accident which were aren't completely sure of right now. what message you think is being sent here and by home and for home. this will certainly i think it will be easier to confirm officially and quickly to confirm officially the 1st part of the question as to what the precaution was or wasn't physically on that plane would likely to get that information sooner as to whether this was an accident or not, again, this is speculation at this point and we'll have to wait for visual statements, both from russian officials and governments, and obviously from emergency services. the governor of the, the region has taken this situation and the possible control is going to be giving some, some updates. so i believe shortly. um, as i say, the 2 fairies being floated by the services at this stage of some sort of explosion on board. all the work of

a different systems. we know that this plane also according to official list, was parked in moscow for quite some time. i believe it hadn't been active since sometime in july. so this wasn't the plane that was regularly used by it's going to precaution for his, his travels and of course of getting a precaution and spent time in africa. it was just yesterday he released the video from africa saying that so far, you know, was working on the consent and was looking for some russian interest, some like russia, even grace. so that was the video he sends out. and we understand from telegraph accounts linked to his associates, that today was the day he was flying from africa back to russia. and so again, we're waiting for confirmation from of emergency services. exactly. uh, who was on that plane festival. how it came down on why that will basically take a little more time to, to come through. okay, daniel will leave it for that for the, for now we'll come back to you, of course, in, in just a few minutes. in the meantime, let's speak to nicholas hancock,

corresponded to the costs and a guy, as daniel alluded to the, the wagner mercenary who active on the african continent. of course, we'll be talking about wagner a lot in the context of the war and ukraine. but this is a group that's been active on the african continent, just give all of us was a bit of background, a history of so i was with the bag in a group in the central african republic a few years ago in that square there started their operation following the success that they saw in syria in the ukraine. this the president of central african republic present twitter at the time, asked for the help of the bag in a group to help him try to stop the attacks of various art groups. and they were successful as about what was interesting there is that in central african republic is also a peacekeeping force known as the new sky. but the uh, the authority in central africa, probably the presidency preferred to work with the russian mercenaries,

seeing them as more effective. and so they were a series of cool in the region this a ha. 5 where various countries are dealing with the threats of arm groups. thing to alta and i still affiliated in molly. the value in a group is active and that's where a precaution was last seen on malia and soul. in fact, that video where we see him in military fatigue, holding a gun, saying that he was there to free africans from attacks from our groups linked to ok . and i so was actually shot in tim, booked to it just a week ago fully. and the you, in case king for the new spot, which is the biggest, the most expensive peacekeeping force had withdrawn from that area. and so stepping in or the molly and forces and the value under a group, the malia nitrogen has asked for the menus by the un peacekeeping emission to leave . and they are counting on that relationship with precaution and the wagner group

in order to stem out those attacks from arm. and i can tell you from our, my conversations with those in this a hell region. there's, where are we in at least molly and breaking up fast so and also when you share where there was a crew of what will happen to them next, because there's popular support around the russian presence, especially in these former french colony, is a and, and, and the bag no group has successfully stepped in and pushed according to some analyst. this anti french sentiment in former french calling it is and has use that to step in and to expand their operation. and remember, this is a mercenary group, it's for profit, they're not there just to tube to put in place rushes agenda most because agenda. but also to explore the minerals and resources. molly is rich and minimal and gold . so was the central central african republic. and we saw during that video on the side next to him was numbers and an email address for people to come in and to join

the fight and, and, and for so just to be paid in order to work on the african continent. it'll be interesting to see nick, whether this, if it is confirmed that you have any promotion, has indeed been killed, whether west african countries like mario booking or fossil world. perhaps we consider a deposition on on wagner and the decision to work with this missionary club. let's discuss all this further now with calling conklin the director of research. i'd be so fond. gould is joining us from say now from pittsburgh in the us. thank you so much for being with us. uh collin. um i just, i, i wanna ask you 1st, what you think is happening here was you have any for goshen? a mocked man. absolutely. let me 1st start by saying, you know, we don't know all the details yet, but if this turns out to be what it seems to be, which is plain going down, it's absolutely no coincidence ever since the aborted mutiny in late june,

in which he embarrassed white america, i know he's been a marked man. many were surprised. it didn't happen instantly, but this was something that i think everybody felt was inevitable. and now we see it. okay. i'll ask you the same question i asked correspond and daniel just a 2nd ago. and again, we are, you know, very cautious here is to mean that promotion was indeed on that pain, a crash and that he's died and that this was not an accident. what message is being sent here? you think by whom, and who is it intended for? well, this is a message from vladimir putting directly in the kremlin. if it is, you know what we think it is never to cross him. right. and that nobody is above put in a provision has developed this cult of personality over the past several years. he had taken to releasing, you know, of invective, film videos aimed at the readers of the russian ministry of defense circuit showing

you a valid grass involved and other leaders. and many felt that this made to look week the whole of board. and you know, i said many times including dial to 0, right after it happened that people across and have a bad track record of falling out of windows. and it's likely a matter of time before the ghost did the same. looks like the russians made about done themselves by trading window as for plans, but same end result. they has been of course, a lot of focus on 5 net because of the war and ukraine. but as me con correspondent you know, was talking about the, there's a history of course, in both former soviet union states and also on the african continent. if you've got any per goshen has been killed. indeed. and there's been obviously many questions about the future of the cool after the mutiny, the feels mutiny. what would it mean for wagner and its activities in bellows, for example, or even on the african continent as well. i think this could be the power play that

moscow had been looking to engineer, right? they, they were going to have to re brand the group in some way while still keeping the groups activities very much a part of russian foreign policy. bosco needs the fact wagner group, and wagner needs the crumbling. and so this could be a way for putting to reassert control to eliminate any loyalists, including for negotiating those that were, you know, part of the, the aborted new new york, who there's reports that demetrius can, was also on, on that plane. so this could be a way to wipe the slate clean. keep you know what bag or dose in place and install new leadership that's totally apply it to vladimir, putting in his inner circle right after the mutiny. the russian defense ministry wanted wagner forces to be absorbed into the russian military. but as we know precautions and some of the soldiers in fact were, were opposed to this. what do you think is going to happen to those forces.