as i go to you by visit, cut off the plane crashes in the west side of the passenger list, including the leader of the fonder mercenaries, if getting promotion, and let a brief revolt in juvenile described as treason, life present, as let them have polluted before. apparently being forgiven. what other facts can be drawn from? what happened? this is inside story, the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm several of any within an accident or payback by the kremlin speculation is rife after the jet crash and russia on wednesday. about the only thing beyond doubt as to what happened is the plane wreckage scattered far and wide rushes. aviation agency says that there were no survivors. the passenger list included 3 crew and 7 members of the wagner mercenary group, including its leader. if getting per goshen. we'll be looking at our guess what may have happened in the political background and implications for so let's hear what some russians have been seeing and moscow to better watch the test. so that's the 1st thing i believe is that this man committed the most serious crimes possible for a military man to commit as a citizen to i think his safety was only guaranteed in exchange for him stopping what he started 0, but he didn't stop. now i believe it as a matter of on

a to kill him off. and yes, i've you sorry for him. i think i hear a died. that's all. what can i say? i don't know. it's a shame my condolences, of course, to his family, his friends, everyone is the country last a here at the show at this man was in fact most of the illusion. one with a maybe didn't diamond is no one knows yet. maybe don't even show the funeral or the body. we can speak now to daniel hawkins. so daniel, you heard it a matter of honor to kill him. i feel sorry for him. he's a master of illusion. range of views, as we said, um, what are the feelings right now in russia that you are printing? 2 people have been coming to the wagner office in saint petersburg, laying flowers, reese candles of portrayed salt per goes, and that's not, that's like a tool that promotion was, you know, boss who likes quite the contrary. he was a highly controversial device to figure out and many things to many people with some viewing him as a hero who founded rushes most effective fighting force and ukraine,

taking the city of buck, most of those viewing him as a traits. there was a dangerous man who brought russia to the brink of its most serious prism crosses in 32 years. but so many, ultimately, he was a man who spoke truth to power, who said things that needed to be said on which were lacking in mainstream political discourse. and we became russia's favorite, so rumble, rouse over as many months in the public, limelight. what is the reaction? are you able to assess that? the reaction within the ranks of wagner? well, the volume, the group has gotten themselves reputation as a very disciplined force. difficult a very richards, vertical hard rock hard, rocky structure which has a clear plan of action if something should happen to the higher echelons of come on . and when it's done from somebody, the reports that plan of action has already gone into motion. there is no doubt the precaution was an extremely popular figure among as far as it is, there was a lot of respects and us non defection full. and then we've seen some of that

emotion on the foot as caps. it outside of the bulk of our offices, so $15.00 to cut up seemed to use his knees in t is breaking down. following the death of both precaution in this plane crash, but also the bulk of the channels on telegram have to be has to be said. of also responded with discipline labels. people not to post on verified information, to wait for information that will come out of that, come on, does meeting a little later on. and there's been no calls for revenge or for mutes any think many involved refer to it would be very aware of, or a tv aware that security voices will be watching closely, especially following the events of 2 months ago when involved related support. when the goals and let the log in a fight is on his so cool, lots of justice to moscow. absolutely. what is wagner? without per goes and we'll be asking that question, daniel hawkins in moscow. thank you very much. we'll talk to our desk in just a moment. first though i want to take a look at the background of if get any progression. it came from humble beginnings

in saint petersburg, which is also the home city of the russian president's progression serv. 9 years in jail, for robbery, fraud, and for attacking a woman. when sentenced in the former soviet union, he was only 20 years old. after his time in prison, he began selling hot dogs. he made so much money that he opened some high class restaurants. one of his customers was vladimir putin. he became his personal chef, catering for his birthday parties, and dinners with visiting leaders that includes us president george bush, huge lucrative state catering contract followed, supplying food for schools and rushes armed forces turned him into a billionaire. and he moved from kitchens to battlefield. when rushing back separate, this began fighting ukrainian forces in the eastern don't bass region in 2014. that is when he founded the wagner mercenary group, he denied his connections with this private army for many years, even showing journalists who linked him to the organization of. but he became the

face of wagner off the rushes invasion of ukraine, recruiting prisoners for his ranks and personally involved in some of the most brutal combat. foreigners forces were accused of widespread abuses and linked a war crimes in ukraine and in africa. relations with the kremlin, soured because of the war and ukraine, a power struggle with the russian defense minister in battle. field commanders began, he accused them of incompetence and failing to supply wagner without munition. in may, he pulled his mercenaries out of ukraine. and a month later, he let him use any which russian leader vladimir putin called treason. he ended the insurrection on the road to moscow, and he appeared, struck a deal with putting to continue operating the our guests today to talk about all of this in moscow. pablo sale going to our defense and military analyst in brussels to knock a or because the professor of post soviet politics,

author of the color revolutions in the former soviet republics successes and failures, and in rome. oh, and matthew is the author of overreach, the inside story of putting his war on ukraine. warm welcome to all of you gentlemen. i want to 1st ask all of you, we have to get this out of the way to any of you believe that this plane crash was an accident bubble. well, of course, it's not an accident. i mean, please don't fall out of this kind by accidental. oh for this was a some kind of explosion on board. some say it so it was what was the bottom on board? or maybe it was strapped down by a sam and deer craft ms. uh, most likely a bomb. but that's not an extra that can bomb on board outside of it, but it's not that they're not going to take yeah, i agree with the problem it's, it's extremely unlikely that it's an accident. there are many theories circulating

that it was taken down by air defense systems, different federal, and that's highly unlikely that they would make such an error that there was a, a bomb on the plane. you know, the russian state is, of course going to investigate this, but i think very few will. we need much credence to, to the results of such an investigation. i think that this is, is seen as, as pay box or the value 2 months ago. and, and, and that's i think for many people, the surprises don't give you any promotion lasted so long to full months after that . a warranty for back end of june of this year. so, and no surprise, the dominant theory here is that this was indeed paid back by the kremlin in the kremlin, is in one way or another one form or another behind the downing of this plane. and the depth of promotion, as far as you're concerned, is there. are there any credible alternative series? well, if this was an accident, then uh, an awful lot of people who happens to be enemies or pretend not having bad

accidents that's holding at a windows. the dining and mysterious medicine besides uh at least $22.00. um, depending on i counted all the dogs um, sort of dissident, uh, sort of a, uh, bureaucratic, but a flat, the regime. uh, but it goes and himself that the normal combined of wagner means it would kids who died with him. this is clearly not an accident. i mean, there's just a very clear path going back, in fact, many years. but it seems to have actually kicked top into and you get the, the bloody retribution, the kremlin, has a root against its enemies. has just gone to a new level since the beginning of the war to pablo, to all of your and list of what goes on in russia and russia. current affairs in criminal law, the kremlin knology to some degree pabo. what did you 1st think when you heard the news that this plane had gone down and production was a board?

what was it, was it? this is a the, and the best we knew before. maybe they will survive in some kind of rather form, but the way that we use them as a well not the, the predominance of them. and especially the use of wagner grew by precaution. for personal, political ambitions also will not be present. and the more the oldest of the fighters are there, very well may be, continue on different places of the world. maybe under different banners. they won't disappear, but the phenomenon a wagner is over, it's the organization is fully decapitated. it's not only pre gordon who was the political figure head the finance behind it, but that was so you to look in the who was the founder actually he was the founder

and after gordon of the popular group. and he was there military commander. and that's of had even most more respect with the actual command structure than to gordon himself. they're both out of the game. and that's a game changer. i did not. can you agree with this wagner? fully decapitated? i would put this in perspective with what daniel hawkins was telling us a few minutes ago that wagner had a plan if they found themselves leader list at any point that they would, there was a plan b, a. he didn't articulate what that plan was, but he did say that there is discipline among the ranks that there's a hierarchy and that there is apparently a plan b. so this idea wagner fully being fully decapitated. what he thinks, as well as it's difficult to imagine a wagner without a gift, any boys in our, our dmitri, within, i mean, we have to look at, i guess, in terms of the reading as far as i can, or has been influential. so can you train it should already be for this depth or

for goals and um, you know, they're, they're starting wayne just in terms of the middle of change from a new plan to be removed from the battlefield, so to speak. in africa there was a perception that their operations would continue. um, but you know, that doesn't have to have to go in and have to help them. i mean, the local author, terry, leaders in africa really don't care. but, you know, who was at the head of the russian mercenary group that they deal with. so, you know, wagner or a variation of buckner could continue in africa. i think the most important impact is within russian politics itself. that's interesting. the messaging. oh and the messaging from russian authorities. what do you make of the messaging? the man of precautions mother was say after cold. he didn't die of poisoning. he didn't die. oh, he didn't to wasn't knocked down by car. it wasn't, it was clearly something that was meant to be spectacularly violent and sending a clear message of the main thing that it tells us about russia is that actually

the crypt late pretends russia is a failed stage in any kind of more normal country. a rebel and a mutiny, a would be disarmed, arrested, tried in prisons. i mean, there was due process and pretends rusher. there was no g process. and although the killing of that goes on is and assess, so the recession approaches power because precautions was a walking tool. king proof that of christians weakness. uh, it does show that actually the normal mechanisms of any kind of, you know, any kind of state. you have a form of the state of function just this just don't apply in, but it, what's essentially a massey, a hit on a man who trusted pretends would be any reason why he wasn't russia was because preaching gave him is what i'm putting broke his. what and loaded him,

a pablo bose to knock an o and commented on the manner of uh, of promotions disappearance. right? a plane crash as opposed to other ways in which it could have been done. and this prevailing theory that the kremlin is behind this. what do you make of this a, a plane crash versus any other way it could have been done uh below the message. it really has to grow. yes. first of all, russia has to pro says what happened to prove what it is russians, 5 due process. so if we are due process is different than your your process. and also let's say i send some sarcasm there. possible. yeah, no, i mean that's a fact. and um, putting the thinking out at the same time, uh gosh him and him and some other piece of the, um, the wagner group board and people there that's more effective than just taking out

one. actually getting was more a bit tragical. he was reading the troops on moscow on right, and then in june, and he was stopped by to the garden in his tracks when he was going to maybe going to moscow trying to do so. so taking out the garden and then waving oh, skin would be a bad idea. so now you get all those birds with one stone of that's effective. not only due process, but the sector. oh and i know you want to sink your teeth into this question. does this make vladimir putin stronger or weaker and the salt times stronger in the long to me clearly, not only as i already mentioned, does it show that you know, the rest as a failed state in it. but clearly insignificant as you know, the only successful the computation strikes for the rest of the tree is, is carrying out is against inside, inside. so you know,

clearly this is assigned. the thing is getting very well and put into the policy um the uh, the in the short term. i think he has reinforced his position, but in the long term i think is so dry comes teeth for 2 reasons. one, if you make uh if you, uh, let's say if we say that clinton is a matthew basil that you'll have a cap on the, to the cap that you make a permits to one of your rebellious couples. then you break it and mother him. that seriously undermine 0 authority to make promises to anyone in the future. i think for many wagner fights as any fight in spain. as this being said, on a wagner affiliated telegram channel, called grace. and they said the lesson of this month is that if you make, if you do it meets any you have to take it to the end. so in fact, actually, yes, well i, i just have to say at this stage and what we understand your analysis, obviously you're, you're responsible for those words and we bring in all the different voices on this

story on this program. but i, your point is well taken did not good this question of whether it makes vladimir puts in week or, or stronger your thoughts. i think this is a very own question for any autocratic leader and you can look to, for example, mock you've at least the prince where he pose the question. is it better for an autocratic leader to be loved or feared? and she came down with a song either being fear. so breaking your word. yes that's, that's not a great president. if you're not here, donald, for example, but more important to this being viewed and give somebody process you have somebody undermines your authority. if someone betrays you how number of automatically be speech start date back in june, where is that this was the pressure, the greatest press to russian sovereignty. since 1917, the bolshevik revolution? 1917. you know, under the people we find these were treasures for him to have allowed us to be forgiven and for golf them to be kind of set aside to some misunderstanding,

even though lines for law. i think what have, from his perspective undermined his authority fundamentally, and that's why i think for many, for goals and was it did not roll things from dr. young was once a once he said he didn't take orthodontics, so to speak was desire was remaining after that day, his days were numbered possible. does this change anything going forward to the war that is being prosecuted in ukraine as well? direct unlocked because the log nurse were, they were removed from the war zone and they had of course for a long time, even beginning with syria problems with the defense ministry and the tire rocky actually bill. so for me to partner where to buy kim, they left the rest of my what's your new role mode? should people because they very much despised how the russian military hierarchy is running things. and they have problems with them in the survey of the kind of

problems them of africa with supplies and naturally other things. so directly they were right now, not involved in any fighting in your brain, though there could be problems if something really goes wrong. and the wagner group could be mobilized to being thrown into battle. and now it will be harder to do. most likely they will not very much want to do that and will not be asked to hear and as they could be. so, but the, so not really this but not, but basically the bottom line is no, this will not write that directory, influence the battlefield situation in the okay, no immediate impact on the war in ukraine. what becomes possible of the wagner fighters? i know you said decapitated without their leadership, but we still have thousands of experienced trained discipline fighters for out there. what happens to them or well leaving the room?

well, that was very kind of flexible. that was their big advantage. they had the list of people who served them with them in different places. specialists, people who knew how to use weapons and they knew these people. and so they could easily expand their structure and then were contract expedia right now. not fully business so easily mobilized easily. be mobilized, and they have the scale within structure of command and control that could be expanded. so they, us, they were very effective and that these people would not disappear. these fighters, not at all, but the capitation of them as an organization, means that they want be a grand wagner group as we saw this year. i mean, they even their mother much successful on ross though from taking ross the safety

of a 1000000 people. and marcia moscow that's most likely right now, not happening again. there's the, they'll have problems with financing, with the organization, with working with the defense ministry because they need ordinance on the equipment . so you live in africa, there's going to be lots of problems and they won't disappear, these people won't disappear and they may reappear. and then another forms organizational forms. where does this leave it to knock? and let me address this question to you. we have just a few minutes left on the show. where does this leave the, the, the for approval rating if you will, for vladimir putin in russia. and i take your earlier points about strategic issues for him and keeping himself in power and all of that. but the recent polling tells us that he's wildly popular in russia to the tune of 80 percent. um,

what does this do to that? well, it's very difficult to gauge exactly how popular vladimir to it is, especially at the time of war, especially in a dictatorship. i mean, people who are run for, you know, for caught up by random polling agencies irrespective of their independence or otherwise they're going to find people at the other end of the line who are very wary of giving their real opinions off of that in your boots. and or the more especially when they see events of the last 24 hours to those who are seem to defy him in any way. so i, i think, naturally of course, russia is a state of war and there will always be consistency. who say when my countries are more, i want my fund future when, but i think one was reviews during for the. ready reasons aborted rebellion back in june, and this is why it gave bottom your booty. cause for some concern was the lack of popular support for vladimir from drawing down a memorable saturday. you know, there was no mass swelling of opinion. no protests on the street saying we support food to, nor done with the goals and in fact the opposite. where for the ocean entered like

in, in ross stuff there was evidence of, of support for goals. and so i would question this notion of to me is a popular leader, as i said, to boost by fear and bypassing the c. m. in russia, as a country, as it has a long history of ultra project rule punctured by very brief moments of transition between one and former older product rule in another. so steps why, when you see, you know, change in rush of funded mental change, it tends to be not a problem. well, as a result of the bottom of the campaign, it tends to be an interest of the struggle, which again, is what the promotion booty struggle was all about. oh, and just before i ask you to answer the same question, we'll have to push back a little bit on a use the word dictatorship a moment ago. and again, i understand the different points of view here, but it rushes to a country that has elections that has a parliament that has some sort of political process. but, but i know what you're going to answer. it is pretty much what you told us a moment ago and we do welcome all of these views. oh, and your thoughts on this, on where it leaves vladimir put in the public perception. i mean of let him are present in russia as well, given that russia is

a dictatorship and in the way of democracy. and although retained some of this, i have found some structures of democracy. it's actually rather hard to tell a as a, as myself, a panelist instead of there is a fundamental problem with polling in a, in a totalitarian system. we don't really know the exact expense to all of that public support. um, what we do know is 3 rather important things is that have to in the major moments of evolution in russia, when they, we have seen state collapse, 3 things are the case one. there is a profound economic crisis to the regime has discredited itself and showed itself to be weak and 3, that is an alternative lead weights in the wings. that was a saving by 17. it was saving much to $7.00 to 1991. and none of those things pertain in today's russia. there is no alternative the states,

despite the battlefield setbacks has actually done a remote to be good job of fighting off the effects of sanctions of cushioning. its population from the set from the any kind of economic crisis or something, you know, when you come on the crisis comfortable, it's a 9 to 17 in the 1991. and the most importantly, that is no real sign, that putin is actually facing the losing his authority. and that's really what we're talking about today is about 210. so the closing that last open wound that was made in his regime by precaution, the rebellion was crushed. despite the fact that actually it did shows and wearing cracks and rustling societies as much and there's those cracks as yet nothing near to being an existential scratch to the pigeon regime. however much of the great

news, for instance, might wish otherwise a puzzle looking forward 5 years from now. how will we look back on this episode? well, we say this was a fork in the road moment where things changed. and it's so the seeds perhaps for future events or, well, we say this was just the blip on the radar. and this was handled by the kremlin in much the same way that many other things have been handled by the criminal as well . so that will have to actually leave these 5 years to understand that when say in 1916 there will be some of the supporters, actual desires, 3 she and murder address, fortune. uh, there was a big story, but then the death. well, it's the story for a comic books more than for the real the history of russia. it was a blip. so i don't know for sure. again, we don't know actually,

totally sure. we believe that this uh that, uh uh we can pick all of them have, have perished in this crash. so they'll be evidence, but there were also well known, but both had doubles. maybe they're going to be side things of pretty gotcha. in here. they're in africa somewhere, like elvis presley and come in years. so this could be a pop story actually in this. yeah, i did not expect that we would be ending the show on elvis presley presley and a bob story, but your point is well taken. i'd like to thank all our guests today. pablo fell again. our did not go back on and oh and matthews, thanks to all of you and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website. that's alpha 0 dot com for further discussion to go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ag inside story. you can also join the conversation on the x previously known as twitter or handle is at a j inside story. from me several than

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