us of profitable storms hillary to descend with details coverage. defense checks here. now say that these kind of discussions cannot go on forever from around the world just over a decade. also, the men's team wants who european championships is a spanish swimming state. but now rules, football was a plane crashes in russia, the passenger list, including the leader of the wagner mercenaries getting promotion, and let a brief revolt in juvenile described as trees in life present as let them f wooten before apparently being forgiven. what other facts can be drawn from? what happened? this is inside story, the hello and welcome to the program. i'm several venue within an accident or pay back

by the kremlin. speculation is rife after the jet crash and russia on wednesday. about the only thing beyond doubt as to what happened is the plain wreckage scattered far and wide rushes. aviation agency says that there were no survivors. the passenger list included 3 crew and 7 members of the wagner mercenary group, including it's literally if getting promotion. we'll be looking at our guess what may have happened in the political background and implications for so let's hear what some russians have been saying and moscow to better watch the test. so that's the 1st thing i believe is that this man committed the most serious crimes possible for a military man to commit as a citizen to i think his safety was only guaranteed in exchange for him stopping what he started. but he didn't stop and i believe it as a matter of on a to kill him off. and here's a, i've you sorry for him. i think you hear a died. that's all. what can i say? i don't know. this is james, my condolences, of course, to his family, his friends,

everyone is the country last to here. at the charge of this man was in fact, a mazda for illusion. what it was, maybe didn't, diamond is no one knows yet. maybe don't even show the funeral or the body. we can speak now to daniel hawkins. so daniel, you heard it a matter of honor to kill him. i feel sorry for him. he's a master of illusion. range of views, as we said, um, what are ceilings right now in russia that you are printing? 2 people have been coming to the vault in the office in saint petersburg, laying flowers, reese candles, a portrayed salt precaution. that is not to say a tool that promotion was, you know, boss who likes quite the contrary. he was a highly controversial, divisive figure, but in many things, to many people. with some viewing him as a hero who founded rushes most effective fighting force in ukraine, taking the city of buck moved others viewing him as a trade. so it was a dangerous man who brought russia to the brink of its most serious prism crosses in 30 years, but to many. ultimately he was

a man who spoke truth to power. who said the things that needed to be said on which would lock in mainstream political discourse. and we've been time russia's favorite, so rumble, rouse over as many months in the public, limelight. what is the reaction? are you able to assess that the reaction within the ranks of wagner? well, the volume, the group has gotten themselves reputation as a very disciplined force. difficult a very richards, but to cool hard rock hard rocky structure which has a clear plan of action if something should happen to the high extra loans of come on and run this done from somebody do reports that kind of action has already gone into motion. there is no doubt the precaution was an extremely popular figure among as far as it is, there was a lot of respects and non defection full. and then we've seen some of that emotion on the foot as caps. it outside of the bulk of our offices. so one fight to cut up seemed to use his knees in t is breaking down the following. best solve both precaution in this plane crash,

but also the bulk of the channels on the telegram i have to be asked to be said of also responded with discipline labels. people not to post on verified information, to wait for information that will come out of that, come on dismissing a little later on. and there's been no cause for revenge or for mutiny. i think many involved refer to it will be very aware of or a tv aware that security voices will be watching closely, especially following the events of 2 months ago involving the latest part, one of the goals and let the bargain appliances on his so cool. lots of justice to moscow. absolutely. what is wagner? without per goes, and we'll be asking that question, daniel hawkins in moscow. thank you very much. we'll talk to, i guess in just a moment. first though, i want to take a look at the background of if get any progression. it came from humble beginnings in saint petersburg, which is also the home city of the russian, president's progression serv, 9 years in jail, for robbery, fraud, and for attacking a woman. when sentenced in the former soviet union,

he was only 20 years old. after his time in prison, he began selling hot dogs. he made so much money that he opened some high class restaurants. one of his customers was vladimir putin. he became his personal chef, catering for his birthday parties and dinners with visiting leaders that includes us president george bush, huge lucrative state catering contracts, followed supplying food for schools and rushes. armed forces turned him into a billionaire. and he moved from kitchens to battle fields. when rushing back, separatists began fighting ukrainian forces in the eastern don't bass region in 2014, that is when he founded the wagner mercenary group, he denied his connections with this private army for many years, even sewing journalists who linked him to the organization. but he became the face of wagner after russia's invasion of ukraine, recruiting prisoners for his ranks and personally involved in some of the most brutal combat partners forces are accused of widespread abuses and linked

a war crimes in ukraine and in africa. relations with the kremlin, soured because of the war and ukraine, a power struggle with the russian defense minister in battle, field commander as began. he accused them of incompetence and failing to supply wagner without munition. in may, he pulled his mercenaries out of ukraine. and a month later, he let him use any which russian leader vladimir putin called treason. he ended the insurrection on the road to moscow, and he appeared to have struck a deal with within to continue operating our guests today to talk about all of this in moscow. pablo phil, going howard defense and military analyst in brussels to knock a over con and professor of post soviet politics. author of the color revolutions, and the former soviet republics, successes and failures, and in rome. o and matthew is the author of overreach,

the inside story of putting his war on ukraine. warm welcome to all of you gentlemen. i wanna 1st ask all of you, we have to get this out of the way. do any of you believe that this plane crash was an accident bubble? well, of course, it's not an accident. i mean, please don't fall out of this kind by accidental. 04. this was a, some kind of explosion on board. some say it, so it was what was the bottom on board? or maybe it was shut down by a sam and deer craft ms. uh, most likely a bomb. but that's not the next to the bottom on board outside of it. but it's not that they're not going to take or yeah, i agree with probably it's, it's extremely unlikely that it's an accident. there are many theories circulating that it was taken down by air defenses from the stupid federal. and that's highly unlikely that they would make such an error that there was a, a bomb on the plane. you know, the russian state is,

of course going to investigate this, but i think very few will be nothing much credence to, to the results of such an investigation. i think that this is, is seen as, as pay box or the value 2 months ago. and, and, and that's i think for many people, the surprises that gives you any promotion lasted so long to full months after that of, or to provide an of june of this year. so, and no surprise, the dominant theory here is that this was indeed pay back by the kremlin in the kremlin, is in one way or another one form or another behind the downing of this plane. and the death of promotion, as far as you're concerned, is there. are there any credible alternative series? well, if this was an accident, then uh, an awful lot of people who happens to be enemies or pretend not having bad accidents that's holding at a windows. the dining and mysterious medicine besides uh at least $22.00. um, depending on how you counts it. um all the galks. um, instead of dissident uh,

sort of a bureaucrats but a flat, the regime pallet goes and himself the, the normal will come on. the um of wagner means it would kids who died with him. this is clearly not an accident, but i mean that is just a very clear path and going back in fact, many years. but it seems to have actually kicked top into and you get the, the blood, the retribution. but the kremlin has a root against its enemies. has just gone to a new level since the beginning of the war. it's possible to all of your analyst of what goes on in russia and russian current affairs in criminal law, the kremlin knology to some degree puzzle. what did you 1st think when you heard the news that this plane had gone down and pre goshen was a board what, what it was or this is a the i'm the rock no group as we knew before. maybe they will survive in some kind of rather form, but the way that we use them as they will not the,

the predominance of them, especially the use of wagner grew by precaution. for personal, political ambitions also will not be present. and the more the oldest of the fighters are there, very well may be, continue on different places of the world. uh may be under different banners. and they won't disappear, but the uh, phenomenon of wagner is over. it's the organization is fully decapitated. it's not only pre gordon who was the political figure head um the finance behind it, but that was so uh you to look in the who was the founder actually he was the founder of the guardian of the popular group. and he was there military commander, and that's of had even most more respect with the actual command structure than to

gordon himself. they're both out of the game and that's a game changer. it did not. and do you agree with this wagner? fully decapitated? i would put this in perspective with what daniel hawkins was telling us a few minutes ago that wagner had a plan if they found themselves leader list at any point that they would, there was a plan b, a. he didn't articulate what that plan was, but he did say that there is discipline among the ranks that there's a hierarchy and that there is apparently a plan b. so this idea wagner fully being fully decapitated. what he thinks, as well as it is difficult to imagine, wagner without a gift, any boys in our, our dmitri, within, i mean, we have to look at, i guess, in terms of the reading us wherever hagner has being influential. so you train just, it did already before this depth of precaution. um, you know, they're, they're starting wayne just in terms of the middle of change from a new plan to be removed from the battlefield, so to speak. in africa, there was

a perception that their operations would continue. um, but you know, that doesn't have to have to go and have to help. i mean, the local author, carrie leaders, an advocate really don't care, you know, who was at the head of the russian mercenary group that they deal with. so, you know, wagner or a variation of buckner would continue in africa. i think the most important impact is within russian politics itself. that's interesting. the messaging. oh and the messaging from russian authorities. what do you make of the messaging? the man of precautions mother was sandra cold. he didn't die of poisoning. he didn't die. oh, he didn't to, wasn't knocked down by car. it wasn't, it was clearly something that was meant to be spectacularly violent and sending a clear message of the main thing that it tells us about russia is that actually the crypt lights, pretends russia is a failed stage in any kind of more normal country. a rebel and a mutiny,

a would be disarmed, arrested, tried in prisons. i mean, there was due process and pretends russia, there was no g process. and although the killing of the going on is and assess the recession approaches power because for goes and was walking talking, proof that of preaches weakness. uh, it does show that actually the normal mechanisms of any kind of units. uh, any kind of state. uh you have a form of state function just this just don't apply in, but it, what's essentially a massy a hit on a man who trusted pretends what the any reason why he wasn't russia was because preaching gave him is what i'm putting broke his. what mother to, to toggle both tanaka and oh, and commented on the manner of of promotions disappearance, right?

a plane crash as opposed to other ways in which it could have been done. and this prevailing theory that the kremlin is behind this, what do you make of this a, a plane crash versus any other way it could have been done uh, below the message you're running past due pro. yes. first of all, russia has due process. what happened to pretty good, it is russian style due process. so if we are due process is different than your your process. and also let's say i send send the sarcasm there possible. yeah, no, i mean that's a fact. and um, uh, putting the key out at the same time, uh gosh him and him and some other piece of the, um, the wagner group i bought from people there. uh, that's more effective than just taking out one. actually. uh, getting was more a big tractor go, he was reading the troops on moscow on right. and then in june,

and he was stopped by to the garden in his tracks when he was going to maybe going to moscow trying to do so. so taking out precaution, then waving oh, skin would be a bad idea. so now you get all those birds with one stone. that's effective. not only due process, but the sector. oh, and i know you want to think your teeth into this question. does this make vladimir putin stronger or weaker and the salt times stronger in the long term? i mean, clearly, not only, as i already mentioned, does it show that you know, the rest as a failed state in it. but clearly insignificant that you know, the end, the successful decapitation strikes, the rest of the tree is, is carrying out is against inside inside. so you know, clearly this is assigned. the thing is getting very well in hooton's policy and the uh, the, in the short term,

i think he has reinforced his position. but in the long term, i think is so dragon's teeth, for 2 reasons. one, if you make, if you are, let's say, if we say that clinton is a matthew a boss, you'll think you'll have a cap of need to take a copy. you make a promise to one of your rebellious couples. then you break it and mother him. that seriously undermine 0 authority to make promises to anyone in the future. i think for many wagner fights as any fight in spain. uh, is this a being said on the wagner affiliated, tell the grandchild. go great that. and they said the lesson of this mother is that if you make, if you do it meets in the you have to take it to the end. in fact, actually, yes, well i, i just have to say at this stage and what we understand your analysis, obviously you're, you're responsible for those words and we bring in all the different voices on this story on this program. but i, your point is well taken. do not good this question of whether it makes vladimir

puts in week or, or stronger your thoughts. i think this is a very own question for any autocratic leader and you can look to, for example, mock you've at least the prince where he pose the question. is it better for an autocratic leader to be loved or feared? and she came down with a song either being fear. so breaking your word. yes that's, that's not a great president. if you're not here, donald, for example, but more important to this being viewed and give somebody process you have somebody undermines your authority. if someone betrays you, have number of vladimir people, speech start date back in june where you said this was the rest of the greatest press to russian sovereignty. since 1917, the bolshevik revolution, 1917. you know, under the people behind these were treasures for him to have allowed us to be forgiven and forgotten to be kind of swept aside to some misunderstanding. even the lines for last i think what have from his perspective undermined his authority fundamentally. and that's why i think for many precaution, was

a dead man walking from dr. young was once a once he said he didn't take off the dogs, so to speak was desirable is remaining after that day, his days were numbered possible. does this change anything going forward? to the war that is being prosecuted in ukraine as well. direct unlocked because the log nurse were they were removed from the war zone. they had of course, for a long time, even beginning with syria problems with the defense ministry and the tire rocky. actually, bill is good for me to partner where to buy kim. uh, they lift the rush and they would treat their own mode. should be both because they very much despised how the russian military hierarchy is running things. and they have problems with them in the survey of the kind of problems and africa with supplies and naturally other things. so directly they were right now,

not involved in any fighting in your brain. though they're putting the problems there. something really goes wrong. and the wagner group could be mobilized to being thrown into battle. and now it will be harder to do. most likely they will not very much want to do that and will not be asked to hear and as they could be. so, but the, so not really this right now, but basically the bottom line is no, this will not write down the directory, influence the battlefield situation in the okay, no immediate impact on the war and ukraine, what becomes possible of the wagner fighters? i know you said decapitated without their leadership, but we still have thousands of experienced trained discipline fighters for out there. what happens to them as well, leaving the room? well, that was very kind of flexible. that was their big advantage. they had the

worst of people who served them with them in different places. specialists, people who knew how to use weapons and they knew these people. and so they could easily expand their structure and then were contract if they are right now, not fully in business. so easily mobilized, easily be mobilized, and they have the scale within the structure of command and control that could be expanded. so they, us, they were very effective and that lisa, people would not disappear. these fighters, not at all, but the capitation of them as an organization, means that they want be a grand wagner group. as we saw this year. i mean the, they, even their mother much successful on ross though from taking ross, the safety of a 1000000 people. and marcia moscow that's most likely right now, not happening again. there's the, they'll have problems with financing,

with the organization, with working with the defense minister because they need ordinance on the equipment save women, africa. there's going to be lots of problems and, but they won't disappear, these people won't disappear and may, may reappear. and then the another forms organizational forms. where does this leave the knock? and let me address this question to you. we have just a few minutes left on the show. where does this leave the, the, the for approval rating if you will, for vladimir putin in russia. and i take your earlier points about strategic issues for him and keeping himself in power and all of that. but the recent polling tells us that he's wildly popular in russia to the tune of 80 percent. um, what does this do to that? well, it's very difficult to gauge exactly how popular vladimir to can is, especially at the time of war, especially in a dictatorship. i mean,

people who are run for, you know, for caught up by random polling agencies irrespective of their independence or otherwise they're going to find people at the other end of the line who are very, where you're giving the real opinion off a lot in your boots. and or the more especially when they see events of the last 24 hours to those who are seem to defy him in any way. so i, i think, naturally of course, russia is a state of war and there will always be consistency. who say when my countries are more, i want my country to wind, but i think one was reveals during promotions aborted rebellion back in june. and this is why it gave bottom your booking costs for some concern was the lack of popular support for about a year for drawing down memorable saturday. you know, there was no mass swelling of opinion. no protests on the street saying we support food to, nor done with the goals and in fact the opposite. where for the ocean entered like in, in ross stuff there was evidence of, of support for precaution. so i would question this notion of to me is a popular leader, as i said, he believes by fear and bypassing that. you mean russia as a country, as it has

a long history of ultra project rule punctured by very brief moments of transition between one and form of halter classic and another. so steps, why, when you see your change in russian fundamental change, it tends to be not falling well. as a result, the bottom of the campaign, it tends to be an interest lead. struggle, which again is what the promotion book the struggle was all about. oh, and just before i ask you to answer the same question, i have to push back a little bit on a use the word dictatorship a moment ago. and again, i understand the different points of view here, but it rushes to a country that has elections that has a parliament that has some sort of political process. but, but i know what you're going to answer. it is pretty much what you told us a moment ago and we do welcome all of these views. oh, and your thoughts on this, on where it leaves vladimir put in the public perception. i mean, of let him are present in russia as well, given that russia is a dictatorship and in the way of democracy. and although retained some of those that have found some structures of democracy,

it's actually rather hard to tell as uh, as much as a pen list of said, there is a fundamental problem with polling in a, in a totalitarian system. we don't really know the exact expense to all of that public support. what we do know is 3 rather important things is that have to, in the major moments of evolution in russia, when they, we have seen state collapse. 3 things are the case one, there is a profound economic crisis to the regime has discredited itself and shown itself to be weak and 3, that is an alternative lead weights in the wings. that was the same in less than 17 . it was 7 months, 270-1991. and none of those things pertain in today's russia. there is no alternative the states, despite the battlefield setbacks has actually done a remote to be good job of fighting off the effects of sanctions of cushioning. its population from the set from the any kind of economic crisis. so suddenly lovely

come on the crisis comfortable. it's and 9 to 17, in the 1991 and the most importantly, that is no real sign. that pigeon is actually facing the losing his authority and that's really what we're talking about today is about put in. so the closing that last open wound that was made in his regime by pit goes and the rebellion was crushed despite the fact that actually it did shows and wearing cracks and rustling societies as much as those cracks are as yet nothing near to being an existential trach to the kitchen regime . however, much of the great news, for instance, might wish otherwise a possible looking forward 5 years from now. how will we look back on this episode? when we say this was a fork in the road moment where things changed?

and it's so the seeds perhaps for future events or, well, we say this was just the blip on the radar. and this was handled by the kremlin in much the same way that many other things had been handled by the criminal as well. so that'll have to are actually we have these 5 years to understand that when say in 1916 there will be some of the supporters, actual desires, 3 she and murder dress for jim. uh. then it was a big story, but then the adult. well, it's a story for a comic books more than for the real history of russia. it was a blick, so i don't know for sure. again, we don't know actually, totally sure. we believe that this uh that, uh uh, we can do a big horse and have, have perished and this crash, they'll be evidence. but there were also well known,

but both had bubbles. maybe they're going to be side things of pretty gotcha. in here. they're not africa somewhere like that and elvis presley and the coming years . so this could be a pop story actually in this. yeah, i did not expect that we would be ending the show on elvis promptly presently in a pop story. but your point is well taken, i'd like to thank all our guest today. pablo fell again. our did not go back on and oh, and matthew's thanks to all of you and thank you too for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website, that sounds as 0 dot com for further discussion to go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ag inside story. you can also join the conversation on x previously known as twitter or handle is apt, a inside story from the serial. then you and the whole team here by the

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1st time in the country's history to women go head to head for the top, jo, september on al jazeera, the you're watching causes there with me. so robin, in the whole reminder of all the top new stories, a spokesman for the russian president vladimir putin says, any report the kremlin owed the killing all. wagner, chief, if any pressure, corrosion is an absolute line. you have any promotion was registered as being on the plane that crashed milton boscoe wednesday, the crush came 2 months after the full, the ally of tooting that shortly meeting the against military leaders in moscow. pete in a sentence. condolences to the families.