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tv   Counting the Cost  Al Jazeera  September 2, 2023 12:30pm-1:01pm AST

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a small dog, right. but instead of the right side of a sudden politicians it was while the 50 critically endangered round beds that live in the air. but it's a national park. it's 2 cups of be left defensive themselves. the amount is reported to have said that he shot it because he said they would attack him. environmental campaign group, w, w, i fatality a says the bad. that's the serious blow to the species chances of survival. the fuel charges everything. so robin a 100 by the of all adults, stories and bulk is found a nationwide strike against high electricity bills as coals many businesses to close the government and the fuel subsidies and raise taxes on the tubs by the international bundle tree fund. for $3000000000.00 balance, double duty to says that he was rushed to hold elections despite mounting pressure to return the country to civilian rule. bryce we, grandma says that even to wants to avoid repeating tests to the states. the french
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president is accusing the trans military coup leaders of holding president of human bond, same hostage. they come to cult member, backwards comments. devices accuse funds of late it into favorites. trip on sexual pretty. don't bedroom. this. i speak to president, bust him every day. we support him, we do not recognize the purchase, and that is why we do not follow what the put you say, because they have no legitimacy. we also support the courageous and clear decisions taken by echo weiss was decided to condemn this bush and took heavy economic sanctions. and they wish now is for the purchase to act on this regional condemnation and restore the clearly established constitutional order. your type of its own laws falls into the 900000 people itself in china to move to safety. transport came to a standstill as bus train batteries and fights will console. a 2nd type food called high q is expected to hit eastern china on sunday to the folder and all the wells
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and at howard's department store. we'd love that his dies. the downside was not useful. the egyptian business better try to shoot media attention. when a sudden daisy and presence of princess diana were killed at a called crush in 1997 conflicts and bulgaria say they hate to visit blank page funds. this will show on the line until the school community, the vatican hopes the funds a trip will, is the church, a strange relationship with neighboring china and russia. india has lost its 1st mission to observe the sun. the mission comes days after india made history by becoming the 1st country to learn the roof uh the, the moods south pole. those were the headlines that deductible use. and half of that next on that which is a its counting the cost to stay with us. in a world where the news never ends understanding what's behind the headlines is more important than ever. it takes listening to the people behind the news and to the
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journalists reporting their stories except intimacy that makes every international story local at heart. i'm only can be the host of the take a daily news podcast powered by the global reporting of algebra. find us where ever you get your pod cast. the i money in site business counseling, the cost on al jazeera, your weekly look at the world of business and economics this week. the wealth, 2nd largest economy, is stumbling on the alarm is sounding across the globe. but china is worsening. economic outlook also this week. bricks has invited 6 new nations among the major
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oil producers to join it's rank, but does big. i mean, that's a plus sign. cause government says economies on demand is the, was really over the on and nation is economic crisis. it's been described as well. the factory and the engine of global growth, china's economic rise was one seen as on stobel. then came cove, it in 3 years, a strict locked downs, fast forward to 2023. the year the economy was expected to roll back, instead factories and now slowing down, because even the price is a fully real estate, as in crisis and exports on in a slump. the green data indicates a serious economic slowdown so much. so the us president has described china as a ticking time bomb with the rippling effects already being felt with across the world. the chinese government has rolled out several measures to boost domestic
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consumption and revive the real estate sector, including counseling, interest rates. for the 1st time since the 2008 financial crisis, beijing has haul the tax on stop trading in an attempt to restore investor confidence. and so what is going wrong for the well 2nd largest economy? consumer confidence is an important factor. many chinese have lost trust in the government's ability to stave off in economic down to the holding back on spending and investing instead, the saving them money in banks. businesses have also lost faith international invest, as estimated to pull that move in $10000000000.00 from the nation in stock market in just the past few weeks. money on, let's say the property sector is at the heart of the problem, housing mach and creating jobs. and accounts with every 70 percent of the wealth of chinese households. but now major developers on the financial trouble and homes just being sold. and the real estate price is, is also draining the colors of local governments. regional authorities of struggle
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to generate income from land sales, they are reported to have accumulated estimates of debts of 10 trillion dollars. meanwhile, the prices of goods and services are also falling on weak demand. china is consuming prices fell in july for the 1st time in more than 2 years. tipping the nation into deflection on top of all that graduates just come find a job. use unemployment is so high that the government has even stopped publishing data. joining us from the single pool is gary and he's a senior economist at the texas and a research fellow at the central european institute of asian studies. thank you so much for your time, sir. is telling us problem in a nutshell that it's still relying on its investment playbook when instead it should be trying to shift the balance to ed's consumption. well, in did i think we have to write this in some progress from, you know, trying that in terms of trying to resign a bit more and consumption to rely,
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invest on investment. but apart from is the track from investment recently has been really too big because if you look at what happened in the properties sector, i think this is really one of the biggest problems that the country is facing right now. and of course, and because of this respect, reliance on properties, then we start to see some speed for you. fact to watch the golf and then a fiscal situation and eventually also on consumers sentiment because the 70 percent off. how so assets are actually in real estate in china. so therefore, i think this was kind of kick off a snowball effect on from dis, wait, tell themselves all the way to was different parts in the economy. so even though we still see consumers are willing to spend on some items such as surfaces to or some really to expands and also, um, you know, catering surfaces. but this marcus thing not big enough to offset the property trip
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improved. and some of the big to purchase as such as automobile. okay, so how big is the problem really in china, how worries and rebate? because on the one hand you've got the us president saying china is a ticking time bomb. but the chinese government and authorities are saying actually we're on track recovery is on track, everything's fine as well. i think this, this reading related to the expectation of electronics growth. i think i think if we look at uh very early this year, the chinese government actually set out of growth talking to the wrong 5 percent, which is kind of been big risk, improved by some room of the new for this really about the well i should expect trying to grow if and foster then 6 percent and therefore the expect nation i guess is really the reason of the differences between you know, of the 7th and listen china and also, uh versus the well, because the well has been waiting for a big mess of stimulus from china on supporting proofs,
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but it is simply not there because even if the situation to tear it at the current pays, it will probably still mix the wrong 5 percent growth target this year because of the little basic facts. but what we're really more is not really about to grow for this year, but about the structure for next year. because if we continue to see this with confidence, from investment and also from consumers, which can spin all the way from property is to consumption. then i think this just reading the, the time that we see of basically of the standard rating china as growth pops, it will not grow as quickly as before. and because there are also other structure or from an aging population that you have an employment. and especially the confidence of businesses and consumers, i think this is really why we need the stronger, told us see, to actually support this areas in china. for now i think things are moving, but this perfectly a bit too slowly. i wouldn't say it's really, it's
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a king time fault, but probably there is a bit of the difference in the expectations from the different, you know, uh, government officials. so and the list out there. so how does a china unravel this? because a lot of these policies seems to be quite linked to g. and so a yes, and i think increasingly we see the policy drifting a little bit more to was the like the uh, like the lead the shipping china rather than gathering a large amount of opinion, especially from the a business perspective. but have it set that com, i feel that the current policy is actually way more target to that in the past. and basically the customer wants to spend the minimum resources raised the minimum that they actually shift the best outcome they want to get shipped. but this is why i'm, even if we look at the liquidity injection in china, from the monetary policy perspective, a lot of what this sort of credit application is actually quite target that you don't want it to be, you know, a to a support to, or the property sector,
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but you also don't want it to for the company wants to direct the last part of this, the quantity to some of the so called your sectors such as spring energy act and also on basically a different type of industrial production. but i think this costs are risk when question ultimately use that. the scotsman really look to resources back to the market. i think time will really tell on this question before now i think we see it for re fi, a pressure from district a good perspective. there was in did the, we can consume the end of business sentiment, especially in the private sector. this is really some of the costs that we are seeing right now before we actually see the benefit. okay, stay with me for a secondary because china has of course, blamed a lot of its problems on the united states. they have a keys, washington of attempting to block the rise of its economy. and the bottom administration has imposed sweeping cubs on beijing's access to advance chip
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technology equipment. all of a sparked series of tit for tat measures between the 2 nations. now be called last section gina raymond, or is the latest american official to visit beijing in an attempt to try and stabilize those relations with child on us. so gary, how much america's trade restrictions had taken china? but we did. i think if we look good all the way from the trade well, of tariff to watch the latest. so my contact related managers actually has been quite painful for a lot of exporters and also uh for the pay us within the ship industry. of course uh trying to is a big country. um like even the, the us has a place that were baton rouge. it will publicly hutch the export oriented preferences small. but this wide span actually on the time of conduct to industry and to get there with more and more countries will actually post as the 5th challenge, tooth and manufacturing role, especially the high tech manufacturing sectors in china. the course,
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if we look at how much trying to actually import from the rest of the well relates to send my conduct the quitman and also the like. come pick the chips. you will know that actually, um like this is actually a read over chicken or u. s. trying this because input. so therefore it means that china will really need to step up as r n d and also at the investment in terms of technological advancement. but this is not something that you can do within one day. so that's all i think, especially if we continue to see this most let by the u. s. eco, by no countries, it's possible to see in a, basically a polarized supply chain around the world. so we will actually see probably a non china supply chain that by many other country like us in india, korea and japan. but on the other hand, of course, i'm within china. i think both ends, we would try to climb up to 10 letter, but really depends on, you know,
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ultimately whether they will be in progress. if that's no progress, i think it, that the costs can be quite painful. and then it will probably focus on the lower end technology and slowly a kind of the century. it's interesting, isn't it because of china's economy includes, of course that's going to affect everyone else that is dependent on it. so i want to, how do you think the us and its partners are dealing with china and this strategy? what do you make of it? why here in china is a very big economy, but i think for the u. s. and the par note, there are actually 2 factors that they will continue to the 1st as you from without any, the geopolitical tensions. the chinese economy is post as low without any way. because if you look at the cost of japan, even though it's not totally identical, but it does share some similarities in terms of the aging population, the supply chain was shuffling to last and lower cost and countries. i think all this factors basically point to the fact that a china is
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a growth will actually decide the rate any way is just really about whether it will additional rate, fos, to us know us. but if we look at autumn market, that actually the u. s. is trying to support, we're talking about us in india this uh, this country is that basically will grow faster than trying to, um, in the next few decades, even though the size may still be smaller than china because of the little up based . so how do you see the pos, the chinese economy as on right now? oh, i think if we look at the general growth perspective inch, find the, i think in that, um, like there is a bit of pressure from the manufacturing side. and um, uh, basically will be a consequence of this a supply chain we shuffled in that we're seeing nowadays, especially china is actually one of the country with the biggest shit in manufacturing. so with that in mind, on the 10th floor problem, in terms of jobs and the general uh like the widespread a spill for effect to us,
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the rest of economy. a few that china will perfectly likely to grow at around 4 percent in the next 10 years. and of course, it's still quite a decent growth rate, but it's just different compared to the cost. um it's uh, basically the golden year. i may have gone really good to talk to a guy, right. and guess from the single pool senior economist at in a texas and a research fellow at the center of european institute of asian studies. thank you. the china is the dominant play in the bricks block, which includes the full of that top imagined economies, brazil, russia, india, and south africa. beijing, as well as most go, have long pushed for expansion of the blog. now, in a been to extend the groups global influence, bricks leaders have invited 6 new countries, mainly from them at least to join the club. or con, husband it is 1st expansion in more than a decade breaks and notes it will move and double the size of its club. the 5
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nation deadlines wrapped up is the annual summit. on august the 24th of to announce the new invite a booth. consider as a major step and expanding its influence and reach. so we have to reform global economic, financial and political as well as the mode to little trading system. so that we can create a couldn't just safe environment for federal. breaks is an emerging markets group consisting of brazil, russia, india, china, and south africa in the main engines of global economic growth over the years. now 6 nations offering rich resources are invited to join, but early next year they include the airports, largest economy, saudi arabia, as the united arab emirates, the 2 countries also the world's largest energy supply as iran has the world's 2nd
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largest sources of gas. and it's north south cordial, it could link russia to the gulf region and east tried access to asia and the africa. argentina can also have both natural resources. both is being paid with economic turmoil. us and bricks is looking to reduce reliance. only us dollar by increasing the use of local currencies for trades. some argue this is engineered to put the interest of the global self, thus countering weston governments represented in the g 7 group. they consist of canada of france, germany, it's the japan, u. k. us the e u. so how do they compare the 7 advance economies accounts for maybe 10 percent of the world's population? new brakes would accounts for almost 5 times that amount. and one calculation by purchasing power parity, the 11 nations block accounts for 37 percent of global gdp for the g 7 shift is almost the she percent. the move for expansion has been will be welcomed by old
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members, and those invites you to express keen interest. now the question is, can bricks really shakeup the wall? it's political and economic architecture. your home for counting the cost. joining us from london is john harrison, a is managing director of emerging market and my current strategy and global data of ts lumbar. thank you for speaking to us on the program. don't show it as long pushed to expand breaks despite the reluctance of all the members like india and brazil. so it's just a big win for them. yes, i think it was, it was expected a lot of comp, countries had wanted to join. i mean, it's important to remember that to, you know, or 5 feet original members have to agree. so in effect, they each have a veto. and they managed to select countries that have found agreement from the other members. so. so to that extent it is a weight, and yes, then you join is do seem somewhat to be a desperate group. what is the choice of countries tell us about what the group as
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a whole one searching? i mean there are some common savings um menu. so most of them are prepared to take an anti western stones, most of them uh, commodity exposures. and they also tend to, to select the largest economies in each of the regions with some exceptions. i mean, maybe just to run through the country. so as i say it out quite to a disparity, a bunch. i mean we have origin, tina food exposure to 2nd largest economy in south america, off to for sale, saudi arabia and the wrong. i mean these of a key oil produces and china k are looking to consolidate on on it. so it's diplomatic success of approaching a peace deal between these 2 of you in the sierra off that, you know, he has a facility between them and talk to you. i you, that's the next largest economy in the region, is also actually the 3rd largest export partner of india and egypt biggest north
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african economy. very close ties with russia. if you hope you strategic location, i mean i see the 3rd largest sub saharan african economy bo, after south africa or nigeria. but it's a recipient of quite heavy investment with china from the belt and wrote in a shift. so i think that it's a little found agreement from, from all of the 5 original members rights. but the members, they all the hot it is to find common ground on things mean, do you think this group, in particular is going to work well together? i mean, i do think that the bigger it gets, the more difficult it will be to find consensus. i think china would obviously like to expand that are many countries that the want want to join and how many that are formerly applied to join. but there's, there's no real common vision between these countries. so i think that there will trying to embrace that profile on the well stage that want to receive investment
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from, from china and from all those they want to work closely with it with their trading partners. but beyond this, these, these kinds of self interest goals that there isn't really a common vision. and so, because the group gets the more fragile it gets, but potentially in a particular countries like india and brazil, but don't want to have their weight within the group diluted. and, and, and india roles of course, has a security concerns over china. so it, it wouldn't want to be integrated to fall with, with chinese institutions or chinese light institutions. and what about saudi arabia? i mean they, they, they say they're still considering whether to join or not. they're still on the fence. what do, what, when they get out of joining the brakes as well. i mean, saudi arabia, of course, a major oil exports. so it would be good to have
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a forum to discuss with, with major oil imports just like china and india. and also saudi arabia for, for many years has been trying to get with varying degrees of success, trying to talk 1st. if i use economy away from, from oil, so investment from china could help with that effort. so i think there is, there is a lot to gain, but of course you. so do you have a view in particular, is also an add on here for us. and even though the us is, is less dependent on it's saudi oil than it has been in the past. so do you ever, it is still a recipient of us alms. so they, they could be a security concern. so they're raised in the us. so over they smooth, the grouping now has 5 of the top 10 oil producing countries. how do you think this is going to play out in terms of oil production and prices versus demand? i mean, i think of course, when you have the oil produces and an oil importance on the same forum, as
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a no doubt, we'll discuss oil. but, but you know, he is still going to be opec could, is the forum that, that fits pricing and, and quotes as of course, the china will want to have some input think to that process. and that, that, that could come about 3 through the break for him, but i don't think he's going to replace. so take that to any degree, really. it is clear that the hope for china and others in the group is that this new brakes will turn the world order as, as it is to upside down. do you think that is at all possible? and i think that's a good many. is it in the future if at all we need to? i think that the certainly me some things are moving slowly like like um a edging out of the dollar very slowly. uh, but uh, things like the institution such as i m f and the world bank. yes,
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the brakes does have a new development bank, but this is on a much smaller scale. and then then the, the existing institution. so it's a long way from, from being a block that can, can really challenge challenge g 7 and the existing financial global financial institutions really good to speak to john harrison managing director of emerging market macro strategy and global data ts long bought. thank you. thank you. for land, because government says the country's economy is recovering, following a 3000000000 dollar loan from the international monetary fund. but the cost of living the is still high. many poor communities, all struggling. nelson nowadays has moved from colombo to loosely put, re, re struggling to keep the home fires. burning electricity has been disconnected because she couldn't pay her bill, which is increased in recent months without a 0 made to last year. she was supplying food to a local eatery, earning bandy enough to make ends meet. now called the phone,
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now cutting cuts. now i have to give up selling string help is gas kerosene flour and the prices increase so i couldn't manage. now i provide meals to some students who are lodging nearby, and monitoring with great difficulty. murphy's flight is common among hundreds of thousands of sure. lumpkins, not just the poorest one year on the government says things are on the mend that are normal cues. inflation is full and, and what kind of me senses have increased, but many people here are still struggling to living. the situation is being a challenge for those running the government social, but that program which is tried to cushion those worst effected when we come to having the last 5 years. uh, you'll know that we had the a, a safety program for the full in florida. people only about one point in southern or to media like but the state because the application via
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the c 3700000. president drama to become missing here and he's government, see they have done the economy around. the recovery plan has seen inflation, which piqued at 65 percent last year following to single digits for the 1st time since 2021. as the policy has increased to 25 percent, and a large number of people have lost their jobs. president running the vicar missing his says primary challenges now are the lack of government revenue and a trade in balance. and i put the gun, keep taking loans to cover these to buy off the gun and that's restructuring the same problem. or they go from 2025, and after a maximum of 10 years, we'd be back in the same problem. get together with this not get stuck in to do so we have increase that would be picking up to see. emily see things have been stabilized like one that is much more that needs to be done before sure. long is on
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the road to recovery. we have still things getting less at the speed there, but uh, but have the turned around. i think i'm gonna have to, we haven't yet turned around because turning the corner would mean that we have stopped reducing i g d p. but up to the 2nd quarter of the c a g d p kept contracting. that means we also were losing job, seemed the economy money on my financial indicators don't mean much to mercy. and so many like uh, that concern is making ends meet. been a fernandez for counting the cost of that as well. so for this we get in touch with us on ask for me known as it's worth that money inside days they have stag h a see to see when you do or what you can drop me an email accounts with the call set out. is there a dot net? is the address um as well for you online address there a dot com slash ctc that will take you straight to all page which has lots of
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report links and in tot episodes fee to catch up on that said for this edition of counting the cost, i'm not inside from the whole team, thanks for joining us. minis on out as they're coming in next. the this is time for the west to replace the best option for the ukraine rush of war and what, what those options look like. what is us strategy when it comes to iran for almost 200 years, americans have generally been stuck with 2 political choices, but cannot ever change because it comes with us politics developed and like the,
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[000:00:00;00] the blogs, the whole rahman, you're watching all just a real life what headquarters here in the hall coming up in the next 60 minutes purchase into the supporters of the cubes, and then the eviction will be fine and busted it on the cutting of ties with from a nationwide strike and bulk, hassan follows widespread protests to condemn high electricity bills also to members of the proud voice fall right. group of j o full leaving the us capitol

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