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tv   Counting the Cost  Al Jazeera  September 3, 2023 6:30am-7:01am AST

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so, you know, i'm from somewhere that deserves, you know, the better recognition for say, and you can watch the full feature interview with the wall. dang it on new series generation suppose, which is at $20.00 to $30.00 j, m t on sunday. american siren song life. jimmy buffett has died of the age of 76. the it was best known for his head song. mazda reeseville, opened 16 restaurants under the same name around the west, and the caribbean was named one of america's richest celebrities in 2016. so the net was a $550000000.00. the hello again, i'm elizabeth front of mendoza house and the top stories on alex's era, the houses of people are holding a system outside of military base and new shift capital. they say they won't leave
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until the 1500 french person now leave the country. but for one says, rejected that demand saying it doesn't recognize the military let the government address is add the protest and the capital. naomi there is this concern that the we move into the military base. yeah. and disrupt things. i'm trying to be close diploma to problems between these yet i'm the security forces that you see behind me are trying to calm them down and asia prevent them from going into the military. about a 121500 french troops are still waiting. that hunter date is in the ball and have reopened. the board has 3 days off and bases depaula and detained president on a long ago. so we just took control on wednesday, a more than a 100 protest as and thousands of police officers have been injured in israel and fighting between rivals was from eritrea. bottom strong contact the ever trained and the same type of re enrolled and supporters and critics of the ever try and
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government police 5 bullets, n t a gas and arrest of thousands of people as a batch. what was to restore order? a coffee has been imposed that a rocky city of critical capital, one protested, was killed and several others injured. security for the forces disposed arrival demonstrations by curtis and our residents of the code as tom democratic parties return to the political. the rena us president job item has visited florida to see the destruction close by hurricane and dahlia. it made landfill on wednesday cause a wide spread damage and, and pockets on a nationwide strike against high electricity bills has caused many businesses to close the government to end of fuel subsidies and raise taxes as part of bailout conditions from the international monetary found. counting, the cost is coming off next one day i might be covering politics. the next post offerings from serbia is a hungry. what's most important to me is talking to people understanding what they
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are going through so that i can convey the headlines from the most human way possible. we believe everyone has a story worth hearing. the i, my name's by a business counseling, the cost on al jazeera, your weekly look at the world of business and economics this week the. 6 second largest economy is stumbling on the alarm is sounding across the globe, but china is worsening. economic outlook also this week, bricks has invited 6 new nations among the major oil producers to join it's rank, but does big. i mean, that's a plus sign, cause government says economies on demand is the, was really over the on and nation is economic crisis.
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it's been described as well. the factory and the engine of global growth. china's economic rise was one seen as on stobel. then came cove, it in 3 years, a strict locked downs, fast forward to 2023. the year the economy was expected to roll back, instead factories and now slowing down, because even the price is a fully real estate, as in crisis and exports on in a slump. the green data indicates a serious economic slowdown so much. so the us president has described china as a ticking time bomb with the rippling effects already being felt with across the world. the chinese government has rolled out several measures to boost domestic consumption and revive the real estate sector, including counseling, interest rates. for the 1st time since the 2008 financial crisis, beijing has haul the tax on stop trading in an attempt to restore investor
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confidence to so what is going wrong for the well 2nd largest economy? consumer confidence is an important factor. many chinese have lost trust in the government's ability to stave off in economic down to the holding back on spending and investing instead, the saving them money in banks. businesses have also lost faith international invest, as estimated to pull that moving 10000000000 dollars from the nation's stock market in just the past few weeks. money out, let's say the property sector is at the heart of the problem, housing mach and creating jobs and accounts with every 70 percent of the wealth of chinese households. but now major developers on deep financial trouble and homes just aren't being sold. and the real estate prices is also draining the colors of local governments. regional authorities of struggle to generate income from land sales. they are reported to have accumulated estimates of debts of 10 trillion
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dollars. meanwhile, the prices of goods and services are also falling on weak demand. china is consumer prices fell in july for the 1st time in more than 2 years, tipping the nation into deflection on top of all that graduates just come find a job. use unemployment is so high that the government has even stopped publishing data. joining us from the single pool is gary and he's a senior economist at the texas and a research fellow at the central european institute of asian studies. thank you so much for your time, sir. is telling us problem in a nutshell that it's still relying on its investment playbook when instead it should be trying to shift the balance to ed's consumption. well, in did i think we have to write this in some progress from, you know, trying that in terms of trying to resign a bit more and consumption to rely, invest on investment. but apart from them is that the check from investment recently has been gritty to bank because if you look at what happened in the
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properties sector, i think this is really one of the biggest problems that the country is facing right now. and of course, and because of this respect, reliance on properties, then we start to see some speed for you. fact to watch the golf and then a fiscal situation and eventually also on consumers sentiment because the 70 percent off. how so assets are actually in real estate in china. so therefore, i think this was kind of kick off a snowball effect on from dis, wait till themselves, all the way to was different parts in the economy. so even though we still see consumers are willing to spend on some items such as surfaces to or some way to expand and also um, you know, catering surfaces. but this moccasin could not big enough to offset the property trip improved. and some of the big to purchase as such as automobiles. okay, so how big is the problem really in china, how worries and rebate?
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because on the one hand you've got the us president saying china is a ticking time bomb. but the chinese government and authorities are saying actually we're on track recovery is on track, everything's fine. well, i think this, this reading related to the expectation of electronics growth. i think i think if we look at uh very early this year, the chinese government actually set out of growth talking to the wrong 5 percent, which is kind of been big risk, improved by some group of menu for this really about the well i should expect trying to grow if and foster then 6 percent and therefore the expect nation i guess is really the reason of the differences between you know, of the 7th and listen china and also, uh versus the well, because the well has been waiting for a big mess of stimulus from china on supporting proofs, but it is simply not there because even if the situation to tear it at the current pace, it will probably still mix the wrong 5 percent growth target this year because of
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the little basic facts. but what we're really more is not really about to grow for this year, but about the structure for next year. because if we continue to see this with confidence, from investment and also from consumers, which can spin all the way from properties to consumption, then i think this just reading the, the time that we see of, but basically up the standard rating china as growth pops it will not grow as quickly as before, and because there are also other structural or from an aging population that you have an employment and especially the confidence of businesses and consumers. i think this is really why we need the stronger, told us see, to actually support this areas in china. for now i think things are moving, but this perfectly a bit too slowly. i wouldn't say it's really, it's a king time fault, but probably there is a bit of the difference in the expectations from the different, you know, a government officials. so analysts out there. so how does china unravel this?
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because a lot of these policies seems to be quite linked to g. and so yes, i think increasingly we see the policy just taking a little bit more to was the like the, uh, like the lead to shipping china rather than gathering a large amount of appealing, especially from the a business perspective. but haven't set the com. i feel that the current policy is actually way more tockets that in the past. and basically the customer wants to spend the minimum resources raised the minimal debt to actually a shift the best outcome they want to get shift. but this is why, um, even if we look at the liquidity injections in china, from the monetary policy perspective, a lot of what this of credit education is actually quite target that you don't want it to be, you know, a to, it's a supportive for the property sector, but you also don't want to for the government wants to direct a last part of the security to some of the so called your sector such as sprint
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energy tax and also on basically a different type of industrial production. but i think this costs are risk when question ultimately is that the scotsman really look to resources back to the market. i think time will really tell on this question before now. i think we see it for re fi, a pressure from district a co perspective. there was in did the we can consume and, and the business sentiment, especially in the private sector. this is really some of the costs that we are seeing right now before we actually see the benefit. okay, stay with me for a secondary because china has, of course, blamed a lot of its problems on the united states that the keys washington of attempting to block the rise of its economy. and the bottom administration as imposed, sweeping comes on beijing's access to advance chip technology and equipment. all of a sparked a series of tit for tat measures between the 2 nations. now b comma sex regina raymond, or is the latest american official to visit beijing in an attempt to try and
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stabilize those relations with china. so gary, how much america's trade restrictions, hunting china of what we did? i think if we look at the way from the trade well, of tariff to watch, the latest semiconductor related managers actually has been quite painful for a lot of exporters and also uh for the pay us within the ship industry. of course uh try me as a country um like even the uh the us has a pre step up a tyra. it will probably hutch the export oriented preferences small. but this wide span actually off on the time i conduct the industry and to get there with more and more countries will actually post as the 5th challenge to the manufacturing role. especially the high tech manufacturing sectors in china, big cost. and if you look at how much trying to actually import from the rest of the well related to semi conduct the equipment and also the like come pick the
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chips. you will know that actually um, like is actually already overtaken or u. s. trying this because input, so that for the it, it means that china will really need to step up as r n d and also at the investment in terms of technological advancement. but this is not something that you can do within one day. so that's all i think, especially if we continue to see this most that by the u. s. at cooper and no countries, it's possible to see in a, basically a polarized supply chain around the world. so we will actually see probably a non china supply chain that by many other country like us in india, korea and japan. but on the other hand, of course, um, within china, i think both ends, we would try to climb up to 10 letter, but really depends on, you know, ultimately whether they will be in progress. if that's no progress. i think it, that the cost can be quite painful, and then it will probably focus on the lower end technology and slowly a kind of
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a century. it's interesting, isn't it, because if china is economy implodes, of course it's going to affect everyone else that is dependent on it. so i want to how do, using the us and its partners are dealing with china and this rushing? what do you make of it? washer in to the china is a fairy a big economy, but i think for the u. s. and the par note, there are actually 2 factors that they will consider the 1st as you from without any, the geo political tensions, the china. so economy is post this low without any way because if you look at the cost of japan, even though it's not to do the identical, but it does share some similarities in terms of the aging population, the supply chain were shuffling to last and lower cost and countries i think overall this fact is basically point to the fact that china is a growth will actually decide the rate any way is just really about whether it will additional rate, fos to us know us. but if we look at autumn market,
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that actually the u. s is trying to support, we're talking about aussie in india this uh, this country is that basically will grow faster than trying to, um, in the next few decades, even though the size may still be smaller than china because of the little up based . so how do you see the pos, the chinese economy as on right now? oh, i think if we look at the general growth perspective inch, find the i think in that um like there is a bit of pressure from the manufacturing side and basically will be a consequence of this. the supply chain restructuring that we're seeing nowadays, especially china, is actually one of the country with the biggest share in manufacturing. so it was that in mind on the 10th floor problem, in terms of jobs and the general uh like the widespread us build for effect to us directly clung to me. i fear that china will probably likely to grow at around 4 percent in the next 10 years. and of course it's still quite a decent growth rate,
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but it's just different compared to the cost. um it's uh basically to go to an ear . i may have gone where to get to talk to a guy, right, and guess from a single pool, a senior economist at in a texas and a research fellow at the center of european institute of asian studies. thank you. i. the china is the dominant play in the bricks block, which includes the full of that top imagined economies, brazil, russia, india, and south africa. beijing, as well as most go, have long pushed for expansion of the blog. now, in a been to extend the groups global influence, bricks leaders have invited 6 new countries, mainly from them at least to join the club. or con, husband it is 1st expansion in more than a decade breaks and notes it will move and double the size of its club. the 5 nation deadlines wrapped up is the annual summit. on august the 24th of to announce the new invite. a booth considered
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a major step and expanding its influence and reach. so we have to reform global economic, financial and political as well as the mode to little trading system. so that we can create a couldn't just safe environment for federal. breaks is an emerging markets group consisting of brazil, russia, india, china, and south africa in the main engines of global economic growth over the years. now 6 nations offering rich resources are invited to join, but early next year they include the airports, largest economy, saudi arabia, and so united arab emirates, the 2 countries also the world's largest energy supply as iran has the world's 2nd largest recessive gas. and with no self cordial, it could link russia to the gulf region and east tried access to asia and africa.
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argentina can also have both natural resources. both is being paid with economic turmoil. us and bricks is looking to reduce reliance. only us dollar by increasing the use of local currencies for trades. some argue this is engineered to put the interest of the global self, thus countering weston governments represented in the g 7 group. they consist of canada of france, germany, it's the japan, u. k. u. s. and the e u. so how do they compare the 7 advance economies accounts for maybe 10 percent of the world's population. new brakes would accounts for almost 5 times that amount in one calculation by purchasing power parity. the 11 nations block accounts for 37 percent of global ttp for the g 7 shift is almost the she percent. the move for expansion has been will be welcomed by old members, and those invites you to express keen interest. now the question is, can bricks really shakeup the wall?
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it's political and economic architecture. your home for counting the cost. joining us from london is john harrison, a is managing director of emerging market and my current strategy and global data ts lumbar. thank you for speaking to us on the program. don't in china as long pushed to expand breaks despite the reluctance of all the members like india and brazil. so it's just a big win for them. yes, i think it was, it was expected a lot of comp, countries had wanted to join. i mean, it's important to remember that to, you know, all 5 feet original members have to agree. so in effect, they each have a veto. and they managed to select countries that have found agreement from the other members. so. so to that extent it is a weight, and yes, then you join is do seem somewhat to be a desperate group. what is the choice of countries tell us about what the group as a whole one searching? i mean there are some common savings um menu. so most of them are prepared to take an anti western stones, most of them uh,
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commodity exposures. and they also tend to, to select the largest economies in each of the regions with some exceptions. i mean, maybe just to run through the country. so as i say it out quite to a disparity, a bunch. i mean we have origin, tina food exposure to 2nd largest economy in south america, off to for sale, saudi arabia and the wrong. i mean these of a key oil produces and china k are looking to consolidate on on it. so it's diplomatic success of approaching a peace deal between these 2 of you in the sierra after you know, if he has a facility between them and talk to you, i you, that's the next largest economy in the region is also actually the 3rd largest export partner of india and egypt biggest north african economy. very close ties with russia. if you help you strategic location, i mean, i see the 3rd largest sub saharan african economy bo,
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after south africa or nigeria. but it's a recipient of quite heavy investment with china from the belt and road initiative . so i think that it's a little found agreement from, from all of the 5 original members rights. but the members, they all the hot it is to find common ground on things mean. do you think this group in particular is going to work well together? i mean, i do think that the big of it gets more difficult. it will be to find consensus. i think china would obviously like to expand that are many countries that the want want to join and how many that are formerly applied to join. but there's, there's no real common vision between these countries. so i think that there will trying to embrace that profile on the well stage that want to receive investment from, from china and from all those they want to work closely with it,
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with their trading partners and about buildings. these, these kinds of self interest goals that there isn't really a common vision. and so, because the group gets the more fragile it gets, but potentially in a particular countries like india and brazil, but don't want to have their weight within the group diluted. and, and, and india roles of course, has a security concerns over china. so it, it wouldn't want to be integrated to fall with, with chinese institutions or chinese light institutions. and what about saudi arabia? i mean they, they, they say they're still considering whether to join or not. they're still on the fence. what to, what, when they get out of joining the brakes as well. i mean, saudi arabia, of course, major oil exports. so it would be good to have a forum to discuss with uh, with major oil import us like china and india, and also saudi arabia for so many years has been trying to get with varying degrees
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of success. trying to talk 1st. if i use economy away from, from oil, so investment from china could help with that effort. so i think there is, there is a lot to gain, but of course you. so do you have a view in particular, is also an add on here for us. and even though the us is, is less dependent on it's saudi oil than it has been in the past. so do you ever, if it's still a recipient of us arms so they, they could be a security concern, so they're raised in the us. so over they smooth, the grouping now has 5 of the top 10 oil producing countries. how do you think this is going to play out in terms of oil production and prices versus demand? i mean, i think of course, when you have the oil produces and an oil importance on the same forum, as a no doubt, we'll discuss oil. but, but you know, he is still going to be opec could, is the forum that, that fits pricing and,
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and quotes as of course, the china will want to have some input think to that process. and that, that, that could come about 3 through the break for him, but i don't think he's going to replace. so take that to any degree, really. it is clear that the hope for china and others in the group is that this new brakes will turn the world order as, as it is to upside down. do you think that is at all possible? and i think that's a good many. is it in the future if at all we need to? i think that the certainly me some things are moving slowly like like um a edging out of the dollar very slowly. uh, but uh, things like the institution such as i m f and the world bank. yes, the brakes does have a new development bank, but this is on a much smaller scale. and then the, the existing institution. so it's
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a long way from, from being a block that can, can really challenge challenge g 7 and the existing financial global financial institutions really good to speak to john harrison managing director of emerging market macro strategy and global data ts long bought. thank you. thank you. for land, because government says the country's economy is recovering, following a 3000000000 dollar loan from the international monetary fund. with the cost of living that is still high. many poor communities, all struggling. nelson nowadays has moved from colombo to mostly pre re struggling to keep the home fires. burning electricity has been disconnected because she couldn't pay her bill, which is increased in recent months without a 0 made to last year. she was supplying food to a local eatery, earning bad enough to make ends meet. now, kind of phone now gardening, because now i have to give up selling string help is gas kerosene flour and the
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prices increase, so i couldn't manage. now i provide meals to some students who are lodging nearby, and monitoring with great difficulty. murphy's flight is common among hundreds of thousands of sure. lumpkins, not just the poorest one year on the government says things are on the mend that are normal cues. inflation is full and, and what could i mention says have increased, but many people here are still struggling to living. the situation is being a challenge for those running the government social, but that program which is tried to cushion those worst effected when we come to having the last 5 years. you'll know that we had the a, a safety problem for the full in florida. people, when we about one point in southern or to media, like but the state because the application, the c 3700000. president drama to become missing here and he's government,
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see they have turned the economy around. the recovery plan has seen inflation, which piqued at 65 percent last year, forwarding to single digits for the 1st time since 2021. so the policy has increased to 25 percent, and a large number of people have lost their jobs. president running the vicar missing his says primary challenges now are the lack of government revenue and a trade in balance. and i put the gun, keep taking loans to cover these to buy off the gun and that's restructuring the same problem. or they go from 2025, and after a maximum of 10 years, we'd be back in the same problem. get together with this. i know get stuck in to do so. we have increase of gdp up to see. emily see things have been stabilized like one that is much more that needs to be done before sure. long is on the road to recovery. we have still things getting less at the speed there but, but have the turned around. i think i'm gonna have to,
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we haven't yet turned around because turning the corner would mean that we have stopped reducing g d p. but up to the 2nd quarter of the c a g d p kept contracting. that means we also were losing jobs in the economy. model funding, my financial indicators don't mean much to mercy. and so many like uh, that concern is making ends meet bonaire fernandez for counting the cost on that as well. so for this, when you get in touch with us on ask for me known as it's worth that money inside days they have started a j. c to see when you do or what you can jump, send email accounts with the call set out. is there a don't, this is address on this move for you. online al jazeera dot com slash ctc. that will take you straight to a page which has lots of reports, links, and in taught episodes fee to catch up on that said for this edition of counting the cost, i'm not even finding from the whole team,
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thanks for joining us. minis on out as they're coming in next, the the showing is coming over our heads from russian positions and a new cranium. positions. civilians have been sending about how they were directly targeted as they were trying to sleep. we've seen some of the residents come out of the building with that possessions in suitcases by substantial safe anymore. what happens on that day is a war crime shows how many regions across the lines and know
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the level of destruction here. proof just how fast the fighting has been in recent weeks, this russian or don't some on a street has been a place of pilgrimage for centuries. the the sizes, you know, we don't want to keeping up the pressure protest as a nation has capital valve to compound or fund of, of, based on to the french sold, which is, leads the country, the dominance of a problem. and this is alice as a live from to how is so coming out confrontations and that is really city of tennessee between ever trans government supporters and opponents.

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