tv Counting the Cost Al Jazeera September 4, 2023 7:30pm-8:01pm AST
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a, i think we're in a real war for talent, because we want the very best to serve in our nation. and, and we're competing for that. private david dean took the prep course and lost 35 kilos before completing basic training where he earned the title team leader. it gave people like myself a chance to do something where 2 years ago the army would have told me, you know, that it allowed me to come in, give them my best efforts and actually show that i deserve to be with the army still struggling to meet its quota for new soldiers. it is making the prep course, a permanent part of its training regimen. christian salumi alger 0 fort jackson, south carolina. the this is al jazeera and these are the top stores the so this be no breakthrough and talks to revive the bikes. a great deal between the ages of tequila and russia,
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president vladimir persian says they will be no new deal, at least on most coast conditions i meant against which we are looking into an intense stare with them. if i may say so with regard to the grain exports and we will do it immediately, immediately off to all the agreements are reached on the blockade of exports from russia. in spite of all the obstacles of russia is very keen to continue supplying fertilizer and stabilize the situation in the international market. we want to supply 1000000 tons of grain so that it is processed into care and then supplied to poor a country, see much human unity done by still. most of the we have a garage, has expectations, and all russian friends have some points. the needs of our attention, we believe that what is missing should be remedied, we believe and the continuation of the black sea cooperation. the input from the u . n is also important and we are working on a new package to that. you know, new, the army general who late the coo and up on last week has been sworn in as the self
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declared. it's transitional presidents recently agree and clean that replaces the elected president sally bone go, who was deposed last week and the democratic republic of congo to army officers had been arrested following the killing of 46 demonstrate his last week. thousands of others were injured as they protested against the you in peacekeeping mission the eastern city of going to to send it. mcguire has been sworn in as president of as in bob way for a 2nd and final to the position though is disputing his victory. but said it won't go through the courts. and hundreds of millions of dollars had been pledged on the 1st day of the local african climate. some of the initiative items to boost africa is calvin credit production. 19 sold by 2013 canyon president. would you agree to open the continents? this climate summit, nairobi, african hits of state, discuss plans to tackle climate change and proposals. the climate funding. those are the headlines. there's more news on that website, stay tuned. counting the cost is next documentary, the informer present. luminated,
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our ultimate cds, these for themselves, and make up their own minds. witness on 20. the i money in site business counseling, the cost on al jazeera, your weekly look at the world and business and economics. this week, the wealth, 2nd largest economy, is stumbling on the alarm is challenging across the globe. but china is worsening. economic outlook also this week, bricks has invited 6 new nations among the major oil producers to join its ranks. but does bigger mean better? a plus line cause government says economies on demand is the, was really over the,
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on a nation is economic crisis. it's been described as well. the factory and the engine of global growth. china's economic rise was one seen as on stobel. then came cove it in 3 years, a strict locked down, fast forward to 2023. the year the economy was expected to roll back, instead factories and now slowing down because even the price is a fully real estate, as in crisis and exports in a slump. the green days it indicates a serious economic slowdown so much. so the us president has described china as a ticking time bomb. well, the ripping effects already being felt with across the world. the chinese government has rolled out several measures to boost domestic consumption and revived the real estate sector, including causing interest rates for the 1st time since the 2008 financial crisis.
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beijing has haul the tax on stop trading in an attempt to restore investor confidence. and so what is going wrong for the well 2nd largest economy? consumer confidence is an important fact that many chinese have lost the trust in the government's ability to stable in economic down to the holding back on spending and investing instead, the saving them money in banks. businesses have also lost faith international invest as estimates and to pull that move in $10000000000.00 from the nations stop market in just the past few weeks. money out, let's say the property sector is at the heart of the problem, housing mach and creating jobs. and accounts when a 70 percent of the wealth of chinese households. but now major developers on the financial trouble and homes just on being sold. and the real estate crisis is also draining the colors of local governments. regional authorities of struggle to generate income from land sales,
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they are reported to have accumulated estimates of debts of 10 trillion dollars. meanwhile, the prices of goods and services are also fully on weak demand. china is consuming prices fell in july for the 1st time in more than 2 years. tipping the nation into deflection on top of all that graduates just comp find a job, use unemployment is so high that the government has even stopped publishing data. joining us from the single pool is gary and he's a senior economist at the texas and a research fellow at the central european institute of asian studies. thank you so much for your time, sir. is telling us problem in a nutshell that it's still relying on its investment playbook when instead it should be trying to shift the balance to ed's consumption. lumpkin did i think we have to write this in some progress from, you know, trying that in terms of trying to resign a bit more and consumption to rely, invest on investment proper. mm hm. is that the check from investment recently has
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been gritty to bank because if you look at what happened in the properties sector, i think this is really one of the biggest problems that the country is facing right now. and of course, and because of this re reliance on properties, then we start to see some speed for you. fact to watch the government a fiscal situation and eventually also on consumers sentiment because of 70 percent off. how so assets are actually doing real estate in china, so therefore, i think this was kind of kick off a snowball effect on from dis, wait, tell themselves all the way to was different parts in the economy. so even though we still see consumers are willing to spend on some items such as surfaces to or some really to expands and also um, you know, catering surfaces. but this moccasin clean, not big enough to offset the property trip improved. and some of the big to purchase a such as automobile. okay, so how big is the problem really in china?
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how worried should rebate? because on the one hand you've got the us president saying china is a ticking time bomb. but the chinese government and authorities are saying actually we're on track recoveries on track. everything's fine as well. i think this, this reading related to the expectation of electronics growth. i think, i think if we look at a very early this year, the chinese government actually stood out of grove tucking around 5 percent, which is kind of been big risk improve but some room of the new for this really about the well i should expect trying to grow if and foster then 6 percent and therefore the expect nation i guess is really the reason of the differences between, you know, of the setting to been with in china and also uh versus the well because the world has been waiting for a big mess of stimulus from china on supporting proofs, but it is simply not there because even if the situation to tear it at the current
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pays, it will probably still mix the wrong 5 percent growth target this year because of the little basic facts. but what we're really more is not really about to grow for this year, but about the structure for next year. because if we continue to see this with confidence, from investment and also from consumers, which can spin all the way from property is to consumption. then i think this just reading the, the time that we see of but basically up the standard rating china as growth pops, it will not grow as quickly as before. and because there are also other structural or from an aging population that you have an employment. and especially the confidence of businesses and consumers, i think this is really why we need the stronger. told us the to actually some, for this areas in china. for now i think things are moving, but this perfectly a bit too slowly. i wouldn't say it's really, it's a king time fault, but probably there is a bit of the difference in the expectations from different,
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you know, government officials. so analysts out there. so how does a china unravel this? because a lot of these policies seems to be quite linked to g. and so a yes and i think increasingly we see the policy just taking a little bit more to was the like the uh, like the lead to shipping china rather than gathering loss yolanda of opinion, especially from the business perspective. but haven't set the com. i feel that the current policy is actually waiting to more talk it to that in the past. and basically the customer wants to spend the minimum resources raised the minimum that they actually have shift the best outcome they want to get shift. but this is why, um, even if we look at the liquidity injections in china, from the monetary policy perspective, a lot of what this sort of credit education is actually quite target that you don't want it to be, you know, a to a support team for the property sector, but you also don't want it to for the company wants to direct a last part of this,
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the quality to some of the so called your sector such as sprint energy tag and also on basically a different type of industrial production. but i think this costs are risk when question, ultimately you split the scotsman really allocate resources back to the market. i think time will really tell on this question before now i think we see it for re fee of pressure from district a co perspective. there was in did the, we can consume the end of business sentiment, especially in the private sector. this is really some of the costs that we are seeing right now before we actually see the benefit. okay, stay with me for a secondary because china has of course, blamed a lot of its problems on the united states. they have a keys, washington of attempting to block the rise of its economy and the body in administration as imposed sweeping cubs on beijing's access to advance chip technology equipment. all of a sparked series of tit for tat measures between the 2 nations. now
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b comma sex regina raymond, or is the latest american official to visit phasing in an attempt to try and stabilize those relations with china. so gary, how much all americas trade restrictions? hygiene, china, what we did, i think if we look good all the way from the trait, well, of terror of, to watch the latest semiconductor related managers. actually it has been quite painful for a lot of exporters and also for the pay us. we've seen the ship industry, of course are trying to as a country um, but even the, the us has a pre step up protera. it will probably hutch the export oriented preferences small . but this wide span actually, on the time i conduct the industry and to get there with more and more countries will actually post as the 5th challenge, tooth and manufacturing role, especially the high tech manufacturing sectors in china. the course. and if you look at how much trying to actually import from the rest of the well relates to
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send my conduct the equipment and also the like, come pick the chips. you will know that actually um, like, is actually already overtaken for us trying this because input. so that for the it, it means that china will really need to step up as r n d. and also the investment in terms of technological advancement. but this is not something that you can do within one day. so that's all i think, especially if we continue to see this most left by the u. s. at cooper and no countries, it's possible to see in a, basically a polarized supply chain around the world. so we will actually see probably a non china supply chain that but many other country like us in india, korea and japan. but on the other hand, of course i'm within china, i think both ends, we would try to climb up to 10 letter. but it really depends on, you know, ultimately whether they will be progress. if that's no progress. i think it,
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that the cost can be quite painful, and then it will probably focus on the lower end technology and slowly a kind of the century. it's interesting, isn't it, because if china is economy implodes, of course it's going to affect everyone else that is dependent on it. so i wonder how do new things to us and its partners are dealing with china and mistrusting. what do you make of it? washer in to the china is a very big economy, but i think for the u. s. and the part that there are actually 2 sectors that they will continue to the 1st as you from without any to political attentions to china. so economy is supposed to slow down any way because if you look at the cost of japan, even though is not to do the identical, but it does share some similarities in terms of the aging population, the supply chain were shuffling to worst and lower cost and countries, i think all this factors basically point to the fact that china's a growth will actually decide the rate any way is just really about whether it will
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additional rate, fos, to us know us. but if we look at autumn market, that actually the u. s. is trying to support, we're talking about us in india this uh, this country is that basically will grow faster than trying to, um, in the next few decades, even though the size may still be smaller than china because of the little up based . so how do you see the pop the chinese economy as on right now? oh, i think if we look at the general growth perspective inch, find the i think in the um like there is a bit of pressure from the manufacturing side and basically will be a consequence of this a supply chain. we shuffled in that we're seeing nowadays, especially china is actually one of the country with the big shit in manufacturing . so with that in mind, on the 10th floor problem, in terms of jobs and the general uh like the widespread us build for effect to us directly economy a few that china will property and likely to grow at around 4 percent in the next
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10 years. and of course it's still quite a decent go freight, but it's stress if we compare to the past. um it's uh basically to go to an ear. i may have gone, we're gonna get to talk to gary guess from singapore, senior economist at in a texas. and a research fellow at the center of european institute of asian studies. thank you. the china is the dominant play in the bricks block, which includes the full of the top imaging economies, brazil, russia, india, and south africa. beijing, as well as most go, have long pushed for expansion of the blog. now in a been to extend the groups global influence, bricks leaders have invited 6 new countries, mainly from them at least to join the plump, lower con husband. his 1st expansion in more than a decade, briggs announce it will move and double the size of its club. the 5 nation
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deadlines wrapped up its annual summit on august the 24th of to announce the new invites a move, considered a major step and expanding its influence and reach. so we have to reform global economic, financial and political, as well as the most to little trading system. so that we can create it, couldn't just safe environment for federal. breaks is an emerging markets group consisting of brazil, russia, india, china, and south africa. in the main engines of global economic growth over the years. now 6 nations offering rich resources are invited to join. but early next year, they include the airpods largest economy, saudi arabia, and the united arab emirates. the 2 countries also the world's largest energy supply as iran has the world's 2nd largest recessive gas. and it's no self cordial . it could link russia to the gulf region and east tried access to asia and africa
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. argentina could also have both natural resources, but its being paid with economic turmoil. us and bricks is looking to reduce reliance only us dollar by increasing the use of local currencies for trades. some argue this is engineered to put the interest of the global self, thus countering weston governments, represented in the g 7 group. they consist of canada of france, germany, italy, japan, u, k, u s, and the e u. so how do they compare the 7 advanced economies account for maybe 10 percent of the world's population? new brakes would accounts for almost 5 times that amount. and one calculation by purchasing power parity, the 11 nations block accounts for 37 percent of global g d. p for the d 7 share is almost 30 percent. the move for expansion has been will be welcomed by old members,
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and those invites you to express keen interest. now the question is, can bricks really shakeup the waltz political and economic architecture your home for counting the cost? joining us from london is john harrison, a is managing director of emerging market and my current strategy and global data ts lumbar. thank you for speaking to us on the program. don't show it as long pushed to expand breaks despite the reluctance of other members like india and brazil. so is this a big win for them? yes, i think it was, it was expected a lot of comp, countries had wanted to join. i mean, it's important to remember that to, you know, all 5 of a regional members have to agree. so in effect, they each have a veto. and they've managed to select countries that have found agreement from the other members. so. so to that extent it is a weight, and yes, then you join is do seem somewhat to be at the sports group. what is the choice of countries tell us about what the group as a whole one searching? i mean there are some common savings um menu,
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so most of them are prepared to take an antique western stones, most of them uh, commodity exporters. and they also tended to select the largest economies in each of the regions with some exceptions. i mean, maybe just to run through the country says say out quite to a disparity, a bunch. i mean we have origin, tina food exposure to 2nd largest economy in south america, off to for sale, saudi arabia and the wrong. i mean these of a, c k oil produces and china k are looking to consolidate on on it. so it's diplomatic success of approaching a peace deal between these 2 of you in the sierra off to, you know, if he has a facility between them and talk to you. that's the next largest economy in the region. is also actually the 3rd largest export partner of india and egypt biggest north african economy. very close ties with russia. if you hope you
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strategic location, i mean it's actually the 3rd largest sub saharan african economy bo, after a south africa or nigeria. but it's a recipient of quite heavy investment with china from the belt and road initiative . so i think that it's a little found agreement from, from all of the 5 original members rights. but the members, they all the audit is to find common ground on things mean, do you think this group in particular is going to work well together? i mean, i do think that is a big or it gets more difficult. it will be to find consensus. i think china would of a see like to expands that are many countries that the want want to join in honda and many that are formerly applied to join. but there's, there's no real common vision between these countries. so i think that they're all trying to erase that profile on the well stage that want to receive investment
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uh from, from china and from all those. uh, they want to work closely with a, with a trading partners. i'm about be owns these, these kinds of self interest goals, that there isn't really a common vision. and so, because the group gets the more fragile it gets, but potentially in a particularly countries like india and brazil but, but one to half the weight within the group diluted and, and, and india roles of course, has a security concerns over china. so it, it wouldn't want to be integrated to fall with, with chinese institutions or chinese light institutions. and what about saudi arabia? i mean they, they, they say they're still considering whether to join or not. they're still on the fence. what do, what, when they get out of joining the brakes as well. i mean, saudi arabia, of course, a major oil exports. so it would be good to have a forum to discuss with, with major oil import us like china and india,
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and also saudi arabia for so many years has been trying to get with varying degrees of success. trying to talk 1st. if i use economy away from, from oil, so investment from china could help with that effort. so i think there is, there is a lot to gain, but of course you. so do you have a view in particular, there's also an outlier of the us and even though the us is, is less dependent on it's saudi oil than it has been in the past. so do you ever even still a recipient of us on so they, they could be a security concern, so they're raised in the us. so over this move, the grouping now has 5 of the top 10 oil producing countries. how do you think this is gonna play out in terms of oil production and prices versus demand? i mean, i think of course, when you have the oil produces and an oil importance on the same forum. as a no doubt, we'll discuss oil. but, but you know,
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he is still going to be opec could, is the form that fits pricing and, and quotes. as of course, the china will want to have some input thing to that process. and that, that, that could come about 3 through the break for him, but i don't think he's going to replace. so take it to any degree really. it is clear that the hope for china and others in the group is that this new brakes will turn the world order as, as it is to upside down. do you think that is at all possible? i think that's a huge many use it in the future. if a tool, what do you think that the certainly me some things are moving slowly like like um a edging out of the dollar very slowly. uh but uh thinks like the institution such as i am asked when the world bank. yes. the brakes does have the new development bank, but this is on
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a much smaller scale and then the, the existing institution. so it's a long way from, from being a block that can, can really challenge challenge g 7 and the existing financial global financial institutions. really good to speak to john harrison managing director of emerging market. my crew strategy, a global data test on board. thank you. thank you for line because government says the country's economy is recovering following a 3000000000 dollar loan from the international monetary fund. but the cost of living that is still high, many poor communities, all struggling. nelson on this has moved from colombo to loosely put, re, re struggling to keep the home fires. burning electricity has been disconnected because she couldn't pay her bill, which is increased in recent months. without a 0 made to last year, she was supplying food to a local eatery, earning bad enough to make ends meet. now called the phone now good, because now i have to give up selling string help is gas kerosene slot and the
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price is increase. so i couldn't manage, now i provide meals to some students who are logging nearby and monitoring with great difficulty. most these light is common among hundreds of thousands of she lumpkins, not just the poorest. one year on the government says things are on the mend that are normal cues. inflation is full and, and what kind of me senses have increased, but many people here are still struggling to living. the situation is being a challenge for those running the government social, but that program we just tried to cushion those worst effected when we come to have the last 5 years. you'll know that we had the a, a safety program for the for and for us people when we about 1.7 or 2000000. like but the state because the application via the
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c 3700000. president drama to become missing here. and he's government, see they have turned the economy around. the recovery plan has seen inflation, which piqued at 65 percent last year, forwarding to single digits for the 1st time since 2021. as the policy has increased to 25 percent, and a large number of people have lost their jobs president running the vicar missing his says primary challenges now are the lack of government revenue and a trade in balance. and i put the guns, keep taking loans to cover these to buy off the gun and that's restructuring the same problem as we go from 2025. and after a maximum of 10 years, we'd be back in the same problem. get together with this. i know get stuck in to do so. we have increase of a g p c annually. c, things have been stabilized like one that is much more that needs to be done before sure long is on the road to recovery. we have still things getting less at the
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speed there but, but have the turned around. i think i'm gonna have to, we haven't yet turned around. because turning the corner would mean that we have stopped reducing g d p. but up to the 2nd quarter of the c, a g d p kept contracting. that means we also were losing job, seemed the economy model on my financial indicators don't mean much to mercy. and so many like uh, that consent is making ends meet. been the fernandez for counting the cost of that as well. so for this we get in touch with us on x for me known as switch that money inside days. they have stag h i c to see when you do or force can jump, send email accounts with the call set out. is there a don't? this is the address as well. for you online al jazeera, don't. com slash ctc that will take you straight to all page, which has lots of report links and in tot episodes for you to catch up on. i said,
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for this edition of counting the cost, i'm not entirely from the whole team, thanks for joining us minis on out as they're coming in next. the the beauty and richness of nature need to be harmonized with stable and sustainable growth. united with the diversity of culture as death. quick jakarta, indonesia is ready to hold the 2023 asians, something together. we will get patient matters at the center of cool
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show documentaries from around the world that celebrate coverage and resilience in times of tumbling out as the rest of the breakthrough. and so she talks, press prison and flooded me. a person says they'll be no new blacks the grand jail unless rushes conditions. i'm at the top of the credit. this is all just a lie from dive. ha, also coming up coupons cou, data type. so if that is kid, take a president with promises of free elections and a new constitution.
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