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tv   Counting the Cost  Al Jazeera  September 5, 2023 8:30am-9:01am AST

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ser, like never been seen it burning in the rain, started on friday and quickly turn the alkaline desert soil into thick cooling, gu, nevada. doherty's shut the place down and told revellers to shelter in place some tried to hike or drive out, but it wasn't easy. someone took the wrong turn and everyone follow them. so we got like into the middle of the desert without knowing around. it got stuck there for like 12 hours. we like slept there. people who had formed various camps provided food and electricity from generators, as well as limited access to the internet. some festival goers welcome the challenge. so crazy, crazy question. 2000. many people. case the wi fi. approximately 70000 people attended the annual festival held hundreds of kilometers from the nearest
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town. authorities reported one person died over the weekend, but said his death was not considered related to the weather issues. despite the meth, some participants say they'll be back and soul. great event and love it, and i'm definitely going back next year. better luck next time. rob reynolds, l g 0. the, this is all 0. these are the top stores us. if there's a, say north korea, maybe planning to give weapons to russia. media report say north korean leader kim jong could travel by on a train to meet the president of letting me approach. and nothing has been confirmed by moscow or from young stokes, between the presidents of russia and to kill have failed to revive the blanks. the deal for ukrainian grain not to be approved in the sense they'll be no new agreement on last. restrictions are lifted on exports of russian agricultural
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products. the army officer who led the crew and got bone last week has been sworn in as the self declared of transitional president. general bruce, i live in glen. i is promising free and fair elections and a referendum on adopting a new constitution. besides, military appointed prime minister says he hopes a deal consume be reached with echo was the west african original bodies tracking the military action in the shaft, following the crew there in july and the democratic republic of congo, the military governor of north cuban province has been recalled following the kenning of at least 50 protesters, survivors, a congress soldiers opened fire during the demonstration against the un peacekeepers. yeah, i found some, it's under way in the indonesian capital chicago, the political, been trading organization for southeast asia, a split of a, me and mark, as well as russia's war in ukraine. those are the headlines. the news continues here to notice here. after counting the cost, stay with us,
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the city and it's here all g 0 was meet the italian photography, exploring the long lasting love story between the city of naples and football like on a gold mine or less for diego, this endless unconditional. the motto donna in the on the the i, my name's by a business counting the cost on al jazeera. you'll weekly look at the world of business and economics this week the. 6 second largest economy is stumbling on the
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alarm is sounding across the globe. but china is worsening. economic outlook also this week, bricks has invited 6 new nations among the major oil producers to join its ranks. but does bigger mean better plus line? cuz government says economies on demand is the, was really over the, on a nation is economic crisis. it's been described as well. the factory and the engine of global growth. china's economic rise was one seen as on stobel. then came cove, it in 3 years, a strict locked downs, fast forward to 2023. the year the economy was expected to roll back, instead factories and now slowing down, because even the price is a fully real estate, as in crisis and exports on in a slump. the green data indicates a serious economics lay down so much so the us president has described china as
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a ticking time bomb. well, the rippling effects already being felt with across the world. the chinese government has rolled out several measures to boost domestic consumption and revive the real estate sector, including counseling, interest rates, for the 1st time since the 2008 financial crisis, beijing has haul the tax on stop trading in an attempt to restore investor confidence and so what is going wrong for the well 2nd largest economy? consumer confidence is an impulse. in fact, many chinese have lost the trust in the government's ability to stable in economic down to the holding back on spending and investing instead, the saving them money in banks. businesses have also lost faith international invest as estimates and to pull that move in $10000000000.00 from the nations stop market in just the past few weeks. money out, let's say the property sector is at the heart of the problem, housing mach and creating jobs. and accounts for nearly 70 percent of the wealth of
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chinese households. but now major developers on the financial trouble and homes just on being sold. and the real estate crisis is also draining the colors of local governments. regional authorities of struggle to generate income from land sales, they are reported to have accumulated estimated debts of 10 trillion dollars. meanwhile, the prices of goods and services are also fully on weak demand. china is consuming, the price is fell in july for the 1st time in more than 2 years. tipping the nation into deflection on top of all that graduates just comp find a job, use unemployment is so high that the government has even stopped publishing data. joining us from the single pool is gary and he's a senior economist at the texas and a research fellow at the central european institute of asian studies. thank you so much for your time, sir. is telling us problem in a nutshell that it's still relying on its investment playbook when instead it
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should be trying to shift the balance to ed's consumption. well, in did i think we have to write this in some progress from, you know, trying that in terms of trying to resign a bit more and consumption to rely, invest on investment proper. mm hm. is that the check from investment recently has been gritty to bank because if you look at what happened in the properties sector, i think this is really one of the biggest problems that the country is facing right now. and of course, and because of this re reliance on properties, then we start to see some speed for you. fact to watch the government a fiscal situation and eventually also on consumers sentiment because of 70 percent off. how so assets are actually doing real estate in china, so therefore, i think this was kind of kick off a snowball effect on from dis, wait, tell themselves all the way to was different parts in the economy. so even though we still see consumers are willing to spend on some items such as surfaces to or
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some really to expands and also um, you know, catering surfaces. but this moccasin clean, not big enough to offset the property trip improved. and some of the big to purchase a such as automobile. okay, so how big is the problem really in china? how worried should rebate? because on the one hand you've got the us president saying china is a ticking time bomb. but the chinese government and authorities are saying actually we're on track recoveries on track. everything's fine as well. i think this, this reading related to the expectation of electronics growth. i think, i think if we look at a very early this year, the chinese government actually stood out of grove tucking wrong. 5 percent, which is kind of been big risk improve but some room of the new for this really about the well i should expect trying to grow if and foster then 6 percent and therefore the expect nation i guess is really the reason of the differences between
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you and all of the sudden, to been with in china and also versus the welsh, because the world has been waiting for a big mess of stimulus from china on supporting proofs. but it is simply not there because even if the situation to tear it at the current pays, it will probably still mix the wrong 5 percent growth target this year because of the little basic facts. but what we're really more is not really about to grow for this year, but about the structure for next year. because if we continue to see this with confidence, from investment and also from consumers, which can spin all the way from property is to consumption. then i think this just reading the, the time that we see of but basically up the standard rating china as growth pops, it will not grow as quickly as before. and because there are also other structure or from an aging population that you have an employment. and especially the confidence of businesses and consumers, i think this is really why we need the stronger, told us see to actually some,
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for this areas in china. for now i think things are moving, but this perfectly a bit too slowly. i wouldn't say it's really, it's a king time both, but probably there is a bit of the difference in the expectations from different, you know, government officials, so end of this out there. so how does a china unravel this? because a lot of these policies seems to be quite linked to g. and so a yes and i think increasingly we see the policy just taking a little bit more to was the like the uh, like the lead to shipping china rather than gathering loss yolanda of opinion, especially from the business perspective. but haven't set the com. i feel that the current policy is actually waiting to more talk it to that in the past. and basically the customer wants to spend the minimum resources raised the mainland mode that they actually have shift the best outcome they want to get shift. but this is why, um,
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even if we look at the liquidity injection in china from the monetary policy perspective, a lot of what this sort of credit location is actually quite target that you don't want it to be, you know, a to a supportive or the property sector, but you also don't want it to for the company wants to direct a last part of this, the quality to some of the so called your sector such as sprint energy tag and also on basically a different type of industrial production. but i think this costs are risk when question, ultimately you split the scotsman really allocate resources back to the market. i think time will really tell them this question before. now i think we see it for re fee of pressure from district a co perspective. there was in did the, we can consume the end of business sentiment, especially in the private sector. this is really some of the costs that we are seeing right now before we actually see the benefits. okay, stay with me for a secondary because china has of course, blamed a lot of its problems on the united states. they have a keys,
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washington of attempting to block the rise of its economy and the bottom administration as imposed sweeping cubs on beijing's access to advance chip technology equipment. all of a sparked series of tit for tat measures between the 2 nations. now the coma section and geno raymond, or is the latest american official to visit phasing in an attempt to try and stabilize those relations with child. and so gary, how much america's trade restrictions, hunting china? what we did, i think if we look good all the way from the trade well, of tariff to watch the latest. so my contact to related managers actually has been quite painful for a lot of exporters and also uh for the pay us. we seem to ship industry, of course uh trying to is a big country. um, like even the, uh, the us has a pre step or protera. it will probably hutch, the export oriented preferences small. but this wide span actually, on the time i conduct the industry and to get there with more and more countries
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will actually post as the 5th challenge, tooth and manufacturing role, especially the high tech manufacturing sectors in china. the course. um, uh, if we look at how much trying to actually import from the rest of the well relates to send my contact the quitman and also the like come pick the chips. you will know that actually i'm like is actually already over tech. and for us trying this because input, so that for the it, it means that china will really need to step up as r n d. and also the investment in terms of technological advancement. but this is not something that you can do within one day. so that's all i think, especially if we continue to see this most let by the u. s. at cooper and no countries, it's possible to see in a, basically a polarized supply chain around the world. so we will actually see probably a non china supply chain that by many other country like us in india,
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korea and japan. but on the other hand, of course, i'm within china. i think both ends, we would try to climb up to 10 letter, but really depends on, you know, ultimately whether they will be in progress. if that's no progress, i think it, that the cost can be quite painful. and then it will probably focus on the lower end technology and slowly a kind of the eventually it's interesting isn't it because of china's economy and close. of course that's going to affect everyone else that is dependent on it. so i wonder how do you think the us and its partners are dealing with china and this strategy? what do you make of it? washer in china is a very big economy, but i think for the u. s. and the part that there are actually 2 factors that they will continue to the 1st as you from without any to political attentions. the chinese economy is post is slow without any way. because if you look at the cost of japan, even though is not to do the identical, but it does share some similarities in terms of the aging population,
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the supply chain we're shuffling to what's the lowest cost and countries? i think the overall district has basically point to the fact that a, china's a growth will actually decide the rate any way is just really about whether it will additional rate, fos, to us know of. but if we look at autumn market, that actually the u. s. is trying to support, we're talking about us in india this uh, this country is that basically will grow faster than trying the in the next few decades, even though the size may still be smaller than china because of the little up based . so how do you see the pop the chinese economy as on right now? oh, i think if we look at the general growth of perspective inch, find the i think in that, um, like there is a bit of pressure from the manufacturing side. and um, uh, basically will be a consequence of this a supply chain we shuffled in that we're seeing nowadays, especially china is actually one of the country with the biggest shit in
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manufacturing. so with that in mind, on the 10th floor problem, in terms of jobs and the general uh like the widespread us build for effect to us directly economy. i fear that china will probably likely to grow at around 4 percent in the next 10 years. and of course it's still quite a decent go freight, but it's just if it compared to the past. um it's uh basically to go to an ear. i may have gone where to get to talk to gary guess from the single pool senior economist at in a texas and a research fellow at the center of european institute of asian studies. thank you. the china is the dominant play in the bricks block, which includes the full of the top imagine economies, brazil, russia, india, and south africa. beijing, as well as most go, have long pushed for expansion of the blog. now, in a been to extend the groups global influence, bricks leaders have invited 6 new countries,
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mainly from them at least to join the plump, lower con husband. his 1st expansion in more than a decade. briggs announce it will move and double the size of its club. the 5 nation deadlines wrapped up in the annual summit on august the 24th of to announce the new invite. a move consider as a major step and expanding its influence and reach. so we have to reform global economic, financial and political, as well as the mode to lead to trading system so that we can create it couldn't just see if environment for veterans bricks is an emerging markets group consisting of brazil, russia, india, china, and south africa. in the main engines of global economic growth over the years. now 6 nations offering rich resources are invited to join, but early next year, they include the airpods largest economy, saudi arabia,
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and the united arab emirates. the 2 countries also the world's largest energy supply as iran has the world's 2nd largest recessive gas, and it's north south cordial. it could link russia to the gulf region and east tried access to asia and africa. argentina can also have both natural resources, but it's been paved with economic turmoil. us and bricks is looking to reduce reliance, only us dollar by increasing the use of local currencies for trades. some argue this is engineered to put the interest of the global self 1st countering weston governments, represented in the g 7 group. they consist of canada of france, germany, italy, japan, u, k, u s, and the e u. so how do they compare the 7 advance economies account for maybe 10 percent of the world's population? new brakes would accounts for almost 5 times the amount and one calculation by
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purchasing power parity. the 11 nations block accounts for 37 percent of global g d p for the d 7 share is almost 30 percent. the move for expansion has been will be welcomed by old members, and those invites you to express keen interest. now the question is, can bricks really shakeup the waltz political and economic architecture your home for counting the cost? joining us from london is john harrison, a is managing director of emerging market and my current strategy and global data of ts lumbar. thank you for speaking to us on the program. don't show it as long pushed to expand breaks despite the reluctance of other members like india and brazil. so is this a big win for them? yes, i think it was, it was expected a lot of comp, countries had wanted to join. i mean, it's important to remember that to, you know, all 5 feet original members have to agree. so in effect, they each have a veto. and they managed to select countries that found agreement from the other
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members. so. so to that extent it is a weight, and yes, then you join is do seem somewhat to be at the sports group. what is the choice of countries tell us about what the group as a whole one searching? i mean there are some common savings um menu, so most of them are prepared to take an anti western stones, most of them uh, commodity exporters. and they also tend to, to select the largest economies in each of the regions with some exceptions. i mean, maybe just to run through the country. so let's say all quite to a disparity. a bunch. i mean we have origin, tina food exposure to 2nd largest economy in south america, off to for sale, saudi arabia and the wrong. i mean these of a c key oil produces and china k are looking to consolidate on on it. so it's diplomatic success of approaching a peace deal between these 2. earlier in the sierra off to, you know, if he has
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a facility between them and talk to you, that's the next largest economy in the region. is also actually the 3rd largest export partner of india and egypt biggest north african economy. very close ties with russia, e c o, p u, strategic location. i mean, it's actually the 3rd largest sub saharan african economy bo, after south africa and nigeria. but it's a recipient of quite heavy investment with china from the belt and road initiative . so i think that it's a little found agreement from, from all of the 5 original members rights. but the members, they all the hot of that is to find common ground on things mean, do you think this group, in particular is going to work well together? i mean, i do think that is a big or it gets more difficult. it will be to find consensus. i think china would of a see like to expands that are many countries that the want want to join in honda and many that are formerly applied to join. but there's,
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there's no real common vision between these countries. so i think that they're all trying to erase that profile on the well stage that want to receive investment from, from china and from all those they want to work closely with it, with their trading partners and about be owns these, these kinds of self interest goals that there isn't really a common vision and so because the group gets the more fragile it gets, but potentially in a particularly countries like india and brazil but, but one to half the weight within the group diluted and, and, and india roles of course, has a security concerns over china, so it, it wouldn't want to be integrated to fall with, with chinese institutions or chinese light institutions. and what about saudi arabia? i mean they, they, they say they're still considering whether to join or not. they're still on the
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fence. what do, what, when they get out of joining the brakes as well. i mean, saudi arabia, of course, a major oil exports. so it would be good to have a forum to discuss with, with major oil import us like china and india, and also saudi arabia for so many years has been trying to get with varying degrees of success. trying to talk 1st. if i use economy and away from, from oil, so investment from china could help with that effort. so i think there is, there is a lot to gain, but of course you. so do you have a few? in particular, there's also an out of here of the us, and even though the us is, is less dependent on it's saudi oil than it has been in the past. so do you ever even still a recipient of us alms? so they, they could be a security concern, so they're raised in the us. so over this move, the grouping now has 5 of the top 10 oil producing countries. how do you think this
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is going to play out in terms of oil production and prices versus demand? i mean, i think, of course, when you have the oil produces and an oil importance on the same forum, as a no doubt, we'll discuss oil. but, but you know, it, it, it really is still going to be opec could, is the form that, that fits pricing and, and quotes. as of course, the china will want to have some input think to that process. and that, that, that could come about 3 through the break for him, but i don't think he's going to replace. so take it to any degree, really. it is clear that the higher the china and others in the group is that this new brakes will turn the world order as, as it is to upside down. do you think that is at all possible? i think that's a huge many. is it in the future? if at all, what do you think that the certainly me some things are moving slowly like like um
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a edging out of the dollar very slowly. uh but uh, things like the institutions such as i am asked when the world bank. yes. the brakes does have the new development bank about this is on a much smaller scale and then then the, the existing institution. so it's a long way from, from being a block that can, can really challenge challenge g 7 and the existing financial global financial institutions. really good to speak to john harrison managing director of emerging market. my crew strategy, a global data test on board. thank you. thank you for line. cuz government says the country's economy is recovering following a $3000000000.00 loan from the international monetary fund. but the cost of living that is still high, many poor communities, all struggling. nelson, on this has moved from colombo to lucy, pr really struggling to keep the home fires. burning electricity has been
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disconnected because she couldn't pay her bill, which is increased in recent months without a 0 made to last year. she was supplying food to a local eatery, earning bad enough to make ends meet. now cut out bone marrow gardening cuts. now, i have to give up selling string health is gas, kerosene slot and the price is increase, so i couldn't manage. now i provide meals to some students who are logging nearby and monitoring with great difficulty. murphy's light is common among hundreds of thousands of she lumpkins, not just the poorest. one year on the government says things are on the mend that are normal cues. inflation is full and, and what kind of me senses have increased, but many people here are still struggling to living. the situation is being a challenge for those running the government social. but that program we just tried to cushion those worst effected when we come to have the last 5 years. you'll know that we had the a,
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a safety problem for the, for and for us people when we about 1.7 or 2000000 by, by the state. because the application via the c $3700000.00 prison drama to become missing here. and these government see they have turned the economy around. the recovery plan has seen inflation, which piqued at 65 percent last year, forwarding to single digits for the 1st time since 2021. as the policy has increased to 25 percent, and a large number of people have lost their jobs president running the vicar missing his says primary challenges now are the lack of government revenue and a trade in balance. and i put the guns, keep taking loans to cover these 2 by off the gun and that's restructuring the same problem as we go from 2025. and after a maximum of 10 years, we'd be back in the same problem. get together with this. i know get stuck in to do
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so. we have increase of g d p annually. c, things have been stabilized like one that is much more that needs to be done before sure long is on the road to recovery. we have still things getting less at the speed there but, but have the turned around. i think i'm gonna have to, we haven't yet turned around. because turning the corner would mean that we have stopped reducing g d p. but up to the 2nd quarter of the c, a g d p kept contracting. that means we also were losing job the same, the economy month on my financial indicators don't mean much to mercy. and so many like uh, that consent is making ends meet. been a fernandez for counting the cost of that as well. so for this we can get in touch with us on x, fully known as it's worth that money inside days. they have stag h, i see to see when you do or of course you can jump to an email account with the
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call set out. is there a don't? this is a direct link for you. online al jazeera dot com, sasha ctc, that will take you straight to our page, which has lots of reports, links, and tot episodes fee to catch up on that said, for this edition of counting the cost, i'm not even buying from the whole team. thanks for joining us. minis on out as they're coming in next. the on the back side of the west suite of its own, which was fine. both unto stories from across asia and the pacific. one. 0 one
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east. all. now, we understand the differences and similarities of cultures across the world. so now my to, when you call home, we'll bring you the news and car into fast that match it to you. the i don't know about this and then don't untold stories and all the 0 us officials say north korea may be planning to give weapons to russia. media report say north korea and these are kings on, on, could travel by, on the train to meet president vladimir putin, but nothing has been confirmed by moscow option. yeah. i visual castro as more from washington dc. the meeting between kim jung and vladimir putin may occur this month with the north korean liter travelling by.

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