of the world prices heads and 9 months high up to saudi arabia and russia, say production costs also continued is not good news for consumers, older whitehouse. so what's behind this move? money politics like this is inside story. the other that and welcome to the program. i'm laura kyle: the price of oil affects nearly everyone in terms of living costs and how much we pay for things like food and basic goods. that's why the decision by saudi arabia and russia to keep in place oil production and export costs as being felt globally with prices of the commodity rising worldwide. both nations have their own domestic

reasons for bad decisions. some speculate, but say that a decline and relations between saudi arabia and the united states may be driving new alliances between the saudis, russia, and china. and how much is geo politics were any influence a must go on? we ads oil policy, or is it simply economics and hot news business seeking to make more money? we'll be asking all guests and saudi arabia, russia on the us and just a moment about that and move that fast. best report from saw highlights on white oil prices a staying hi, a saudi arabia rusher announced that extends costs in oil production until the end of the year, flushing it by $1300000.00 barrels a day. fuel oil supplies mean higher prices, and that's bad news for consumers, businesses and governments looking to keep prices down. the russian saudi decision on costs follows and moves by the oil produces blog opec plus the cost supply in april. and then again in june,

the impact of the saudi russian decision has already been felt with the price of brent crude rising to more than $90.00 a barrel for the 1st time this year. that's an increase of more than 25 percent since june when the price stood at $72.00. both value ravia and russia wants higher prices for domestic reasons. international monetary funds, as the saudi kingdom needs and all price of more than $80.00 a barrel to balance it's budgets. reality also needs to fund it's. i'm vicious vision. 2030 projects to transform is economy and diversify away from its reliance on oil. revenue was due and russia well, more money to fund its will renew, crane and help cope with severe sanctions imposed by western nations. a higher oil price isn't welcome, political news in the white house. so while the us benefits, as well as biggest oil producing nation, when prices go up, businesses and consumers sofa and that's of course includes american votes is just

the year before presidential election. john is economy and the risk of a downturn is a why re to or produces as a huge consumer of oil. any reduction in demands because of an economic slowdown would push oil prices low globally and that's likely to keep rusher. unsaturated. you're on the same track, at least now, and costing production and keeping price is higher to sort of hide the inside story the well that's bring in all guess now and in re add cornelia my see the consultancy, my results is in moscow. chris way, 5 chief executive officer, cedric business from macro advisory and in houston, texas, i'm julia powell and president of the powell oil associates. that's a company that specializes in oil trade. a very welcome to all of you and your to

start with you has this announcement this limit of the amount of oil available on the market to the end of the yeah. come as a surprise. i think it was a surprise to the market that the cuts were extended to the end of the year, where the market expected to go month by maya. and as a result, as well, the inventory is continued to decline. we're saying, well, prices rally, especially in the face of the increasing demands. and so tony, you will in saudi and i know that you know, the saudi oil minister, perhaps you can shed some light for us on why the se, all extending these costs. but i cannot speak to any minnesota so, so those tests upfront. but if i look at the decision, i've never also looked at the most recent opec decisions. this is not, this is less poly picks, opec doesn't really do that much politics. it's also a reflection of the rory of the global economy. we have seen china,

i'm not really getting out of the old ones from the, from the 0 cobit policy. so that's, you know, we, china is a bit of a sick man. you're a, has a war going on and you look especially at germany, which is not doing well at all. so there is a real concern where the global economies headed. yes, it's 2 at the same time we have um got global of consumption, an old time fire behind the 3000000 barrels a day, but still it's all seen as quite 10 years. so i think it's also a matter of being from a know pick perspective. it's also a matter of being crude and, and being ready. ready to, to, to before, what happens if the economy really doesn't do too well, you can always, it's always easier to put the tap on the, to then to that, to close it. and or do you accept that prudent, see, i mean,

the saudis have said that they are willing to review it month by month on ton increase production co, uh, production if necessary. well, i do agree because we've seen over the last year, saudi arabia has taken proactive and preemptive stats, in order to, in their words, produce a well market stability. and they may be having great insight into the demand in china due to their joint venture refineries in seeing with them in front of me purchasers in that country. and as a result, they don't want to see a repeat of what we have seen in the past. where the world goes into a recession, oil demand plummets, as well as the price, while the salaries are worried about their domestic spending. course that's bring you in because russia does appear to be standing firm with salvi on this limiting it's exports of oil onto the market and what does it get out of it? but it's for the rest of it is a case of power knows economics and

a short term and a longer term perspective. obviously the short term, short, comedian term perspective is that russian needs the money to fund the budget to which is not, of course, funding the ministry as well as the domestics, social stability. so it obviously wants to earn as much money as, as, as possible over the medium term and the actions of opec, particularly the actions of saudi arabia have helped russia kind of a boost. it's income if you're, if you go back to the air year this year, when the oil price was a bit soft rush, it was having to sell it's buying heavily discount. it's uh, you know, 3040 percent discount on the, on the brand price. uh, what it was, what it was using to gain markets in india and china. but since saturday, in particular, has announced these big cuts and they've extended them and rushes participation to a smaller extent, 300000 barrels

a day to the end of the year. but it is allowed russia to boost its oil, the oil price that it gets for exports. so now we heard from the ministry of finance just recently that russia is earning an average of $75.00 per barrel, whereas it was down to as low as 40 area in the year. that means that budget is now recovering. and financially, the russian is, is now kind of in a much safer place and it was term, and i think this up see a here just a lot and travels in the middle east and all that countries as well, longer term it, all of this is against the backdrop where, where the constant message from the west and protect or is that they are moving as fast as possible away from hydrocarbons towards renewable and other sources. so essentially the message to the oil producers from the big way kind of western markets is that there is a time limit on when how much longer we will once your. busy oil or gas and we willing to pay for it. so producers and that also need to earn

a lot of money over safe next 10 years to use that money to create you economic drivers for the longer term. so i think there's kind of both shorts and mediums have factors when it comes to this conclusion to can throw the price up towards a $100.00. brent coordinator is that's the situation that you'll find in the, in saudi that produces a pain to keep the price high for as long as possible seeing it as a finite results. well, 1st of all, i mean when you see, oh, pick actions. oh, pick items up, it's always very clear. we're not that they're not dealing with pro, with a price person or they're dealing with keeping the market adequately supplied. and i think, but i think that is something in that, that you know, the, the earliest we did congress that we want to move away from oil and the, we want to up in triple combustion engines on the streets out by 2035. and all those things, but the line new in the emerging world, in africa. and so those are where we'll have,

where we will have 2000000000 people more. by the end of 2050, we will have, they will still need oil, you know, we need and that she, we need all sorts of software and that she, so it's not just about getting oil out. it's about getting c o 2 out there. you also have carbon removal technology, so we need to have a broader view point. but there is certainly something in a lot of what, what i will call the just and adults in saudi arabia. i mean, they have got shoes, projects going on. you've got the vision 1st, you've got this whole 15 nails being built in that as it some things go to funds that yes, something's going to follow that. but there's also in question from, from investment um, from, from investors, from, from a broad. so something's got a fund that, but it's less about funding documents that those projects will be found that the, the, the solid, the sound. but it's also, it's, it's really when we,

when we talk about or yes, obviously anybody would like the, the key input to bottom spot to which in the case of saudi is oil to be as high as possible. that's true. but i don't think this is about funding. i don't really think this is about funding vision 2030. this is really about them. you know, keeping the markets as an adequately supplied. i'm thinking ahead of what, what the downside into economy can be because as i said, the saudi, something very capable of putting up the, putting all the on the top because they have the, they have to, you know, they have a huge productive capacity. so, you know, they off $1000000.00 barrels a day, more in there that they can put on them if they choose to do so under. uh, do you agree with that? do you agree that solve the saudis moves and not so much about the money more about supporting the stability and the balance of oil markets to see us see it that way?

well i don't think the. busy sees it that way, in fact, i think that the saudis are quite concerned about the revenues, and in fact we see that okay, with their monthly demand forecasts or actually the most optimistic on increasing demand. more than the international energy agency forecasts of $2200000.00 barrels a day of growth this year. so we see that old pac 12 quite optimist. think on the demand side is, is more than happy to reduce the supply as to the market. what i would say is saudi arabia is really shouldering the burden of the supply cuts at the same time that we see increased production from a ron libya and ben as well as who are not bound by the opec plus quotas. what impacts the does it have on the economy? because the salad, the output is such a huge percentage of the global oil markets. i shouldn't advisements buffet too

much by the of a, of the oil producing countries that you just mentioned. so what impact of these days costs from sound in russia have or from saudi particularly cost on the us economy? well, certainly the consumers pay. busy for gasoline, and that of course is a highlight for the buy administrative action. but a more serious issue is that the price of the diesel is rising and dramatically. and that's a hidden tax on the consumer for all the goods and services that the purchasing. whether it's at the store or what for home delivery, and that not only affects us here in the united states, but elsewhere in europe, where they're more dependent on diesel and diesel prices as well as the rest of the world. chris, do you think that the saudis are lining themselves more with russia and against the u. s. on this particular issue? is it a message to the us? well, no, i wouldn't read it as a n t us move by, but by say, saturday but,

but for sure there we can see greater kind of political and also investment and trade engagement between saturday and, and russia, but also good. the saturdays are and other efforts, other countries because since the entrance and guitar are also much more active in terms of developing trade and investment, kind of a looking east and looking north. so we see significant investments in, in central asia from, from countries and the goals of cmc engagements with the, with the, with china, with india, a. so it is part of that diverse vacation. i would not read it as an end to us, move it for sure. that's kind of what used to be a very close political relationship between saturday in washington is now gone. but it's gone because saturday is diversifying and is looking to, you know, couldn't see abroad. and it's relationship in this trade. rather than say, we're turning against the west and we're going to east, i think i see it more specification. and obviously, you know,

savvy along with the everett's will, and the ran will join the bricks, the grouping from january. we've yet to see how does this develop? how does breaks, you know, to develop a beyond why this has been just been a talking shock, but now to get bigger with saturday and the average. and also even last week, just one final points. we heard the 1st ever cargo rails or train uh, between um russia and saudi arabia, a kind of left russia and will arrive in saudi arabia kind of in the next couple of days. this is the 1st ever direct kind of trade route between russia and saturday, and the, and it will, of course, go true. it ran in central asia. but the, the intention from both sides, when the, when the train left russia was that this is going to become a much bigger trade routes and just put future between the 2 countries. but much more about domestication, as i would see it rather than away from the west towards the east,

but must go slowly, would be very happy to jump on board with this policy if it was seen to be hosting the us to be hosting job item. yeah, even though wouldn't be too much into that kind of and she kind of us stands in moscow for sure. we're all aware of the politics in nature and then moscow's view of that. but now when you talk to ministers, you talk to other, other officials. it's, it's, this is not about, you know, less hurt to us and lets you know, grab side of the out of the western camp and bring it in to, you know, kind of the, did the rest of the china cabinet. you don't hear that. this is really the dialogue is all about, how can we create new markets and new trade partnerships, new co investments. and clearly that means bringing in, not just india and some african nations, but also the gulf, the rich gulf states as well. and as moscow sees that there is a lot of kind of commonality in the long term interest of countries like so. the bm or it's under i should because they are all currently very dependent on hydrocarbons. they are all looking at the long term future of diversification. and

it's most cuz position is that therefore that there, it makes sense for countries to cooperate, but not in the i don't not hear anybody saying this is an n t your n t west move. it's more about how can we work together? it's kind of decrees a better trade and investment partnership, long term, it's not political as far as like okay, okay, let's bring onto it on that side and see if he agrees andrew is the feeling is the sentiment that in the us, that this is not political that they shouldn't read anything into it. it's actually economics. well, i do think from the savvy perspective a, quite a bit of it is economic and clearly the u. s. has already producing nearly 13000000 barrels a day of crude oil and export and 4000000 barrels a day of the bad. so we really have the less dependence on saudi arabia and the middle east for our oil supplies. in addition to the united states continues to increase its l. n g at sports where i do see

a lot of politics is that europe is really the worst thing itself from russian energy supplies. the us is coming in to build some of that gap. and then the us is looking at producers in the middle east to build the rest of that gap that's made by the shortfall of russian oil sales into europe. but how consumption buys and b as the election? yeah. a approaches pretty rapidly and probably says the petrol palm that are approaching $4.00 a gallon out land, that is a politically sensitive threshold. solely what combining do at this stage to keep the price is as low as possible. well, there's very little that 5 and you can do in the short term. we just saw they cancel the set of remaining leases, and i'll be alaska national wildlife reserve. so that is disheartening to the oil industry. the well industry means the much more sir t for the long term planning of drilling to produce more oil here in the united

states. but while you have seen the by mid ministration, do is started coughing to that as well. and a rod i take with the aim of getting more well production to the market, which tempers and increases and well price is clearly a ron is just announce that they're producing well over $3000000.00 barrels a day of well, then we're seeing once again the us talk to them as well about having free and fair elections in the way they already believe the status is on that country. code is a real tight, very peasant, but saudis will king if the oil price gets too high, inflation increases f o. banks have to bring up interest rates and then the economy, slaves and the, the mom dropped spot down. they'll be having to keep a very close eye on the impact. so these price hikes have, i think, yes they do. one does have to have a quite a type thing, and it's especially annoyed to c p i. it's not the current flash, it's

a cpi that is going to go off of that to boris. obviously, i'm sorry, go back governors around the, around the world. so there's a, there's a typo because due to global economy means mazda mazda, full oil. i'm not who got a global economy, it's less demand for, you know, if you look at it from the standpoint of the middle eastern oil producers, the real, the biggest customers are india and china. so it does for a long time. if the deed, the trade flows, the oil flows have local and east and they have gone west. now with the russian, with the russian sanctions. more of it goes to europe again. but that's, that's another, that's another part. but you always will try to be close. you always will try to watch your watch closely, and that's why again, where we come into looking at what to try nice doing it with a chinese economy is going because if you're not just client that you don't know where that is going, it could not make lee, you're going to be prudent. chris,

where is the chinese economy going? is it recovering or is it still stuck? nice thing it's, it's stagnating. and in fact, that i think one of the reasons, perhaps i, by saturday in the russia, i have a, you know, it may just statements to, of the cuts extended to your end rather than month by month. as was mentioned was previously is because there was a real concern that the chinese could have some significant economic problems uh, by the end of this year or next year. and specifically that's relations to the real estate market. the amount of lending in the real estate market and potentially the amount of bad loans. and then the thoughts in, in, in the real estate market. it's something that the government has turned a blind eye to as a language to develop. and you can see all the signs of a realistic bubble in china, and if it's not handled properly, then you could have a major problem of the chinese economy next year. and i think that's also a proxy there ups. why,

why or the back of russia are taking this in terms of the terms of culture because you cannot at. busy be sure to dig chinese economy will either remain stable or, or grow it there. there's a real danger of a crisis in the chinese economy because of real estate. one party lost a quick point to the if i make the bit to the actions by saturday, by all like have actually of course, we can to large extent the, the impact to of sanctions and russia and around. because now you have a situation where as i mentioned, russia is now selling, it's only for an average of $75.00 per barrel according to the finance ministry. whereas the price captain paused by g g $7.00, an e u was $60.00, but the e u. a g 7 have have delays. any review of the, of the price cap, which has been called for by some countries because they do because they need the oil and they need the oil in the market. and they're not going to do anything that

would further type in deal in market and drug prices higher. and as our colleagues in the houston mentions, the arrangements are now very openly talking about a boosting production. and what we're 3000000 of the heart target of 3800000 with byte within 6 months. and that means their exports are also rising. and everybody knows that. but again, it's not causing any that there's no complaints from washington, etc, because of what saturday has an open has done means that the market needs but russian underwriting oil. and that's, that's true is do we haven't seen any big outcry from washington of, of this move because it's quite hard to balance to politics and economics. why? i think that's exactly right. the administration wants to see lower gasoline and diesel prices. and if we're not going to be producing that much more crude oil here in the united states, you can simply sanction everybody and expect that for you. well, supply goes down and prices remain stable. and as a result, we've taken this,

you know, lovely other way, philosophy on what's happening with the right. now we're seeing the same thing happened as a rushing well, the sales exceeds the price cash, not much action has been taken against the best. so loaners or the financing of those cargoes, because the administration knows they don't want to supply disruption, as we potentially experience when russia hadn't dated the ukraine. back in 2022 cornelia, just to, to, to look at the broad a picture as we wrap up the show. do high oil prices risk a global economic recovery? well, hi, old prices will have an impact on, on the, on the cpi, on the, on the, on the, on the headline inflation rate. and that will obviously then have an impact, a central banks, mandates is to keep inflation up at 2 percent. will have an impact on interest

rates, which then we'll have an impact into impact on, you know, how quickly economies can grow. so in that sense, yes, they do have, but they don't have an impact on that history to be on the radar screen of saudi arabia, but also of, of, of opec. so as you said earlier, it's tied through, you know, how much does one have to do in order to be and if there should, should there be a refreshment china? and the how much, or this one has to be nice, not to have too much of an inflationary impact on the global economy. so yes, it, it does have, it does have an impact. but as i said before, you know, the, the, the, the spare capacity is there only the small oil shouldn't be required, but the kids, the saudis, and tall adjustments as well. so i don't think you need to have unanimous decisions to move anywhere but so the certainly the big brother and so did. and ross sized

the big brother for the non opec i'm group and this opec gloves some arrangement. but the solid historically, sorry, is the, is the largest crude export to the us by the way, is the largest them the crew would use. but them, so the is the largest crude export the so yes, certainly if you're the issue of the 300 pound pound gorilla in the, in the, in the room of smaller con, please. of course you will have to fix it. and under just last what to use, it does the end of the success of bite and all mix of job items. economic policy depend largely on saudi as well. it does to the extent that bottom line makes depends on the affordable energy prices. and what the market is concerned about is that if it sees that world inventories are declining, the market may go up faster,

then saudi arabia is willing to open up the tags and you can have a mismatch and timing. that of course, creates a political discussion over here about higher prices is definitely prices we add very quickly to increases include oil prices at the consumer level of such an interesting discussion that we've had here today on inside story. many thanks to all guess with joining us coline, i'm a chris waste and andrew lip. how i'm thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting a web site that's out. is there a dot com? i'm just on discussion to visual facebook page. that's facebook dot com forward slash a inside story. you can also join the conversation on x, formerly known as twista. ahem! placed at a j inside story from me laura kyle, i'm the whole team here. as i sent out the

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