beginning by deals, the french republic i'm proclaimed, but just what is more than friends in a full pot series, the big picture takes an in depth, not from the same size. episode to analogy, is there a prisoner swap between the us and iraq? it's a rare agreement between 2 nations long at odds on nearly all front. so does this deal signal a new drawn and relations? or is it just a one off? this is inside store, the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm how much enjoy them. iran in the united states rarely agree on anything. so a deal to swap prisoners is a river event. 2 years of delicate negotiations, broken by a thought that bore fruit on monday with inmates released by both sides to the iranians have opted to stay in the us with another, going to an undisclosed country while to or back into her on the 5 release by iran . are back in the us, $6000000000.00 of ronnie and assets have also been unfrozen. we'll be discussing the significance of all this with our guest shortly. but 1st, here's a report from michael some sharif on a rare day of cooperation between the us and the wrong. the emotional scenes as 5 americans held by the around for years arrived at this airport in compass captain to ha, and exchange washington police 5. the radians and unblocked $6000000000.00 in frozen as a noon on from the high stakes diplomatic di was negotiated by cutting wood

to his at many points, there was no light at the end of account of it comes to the said mediation, both sides during the negotiations went through a lot of difficulty to get the final language that was the approved over the financial humanitarian channel. and also about the business exchange at the christmas. wolf is the 1st deal in years between 2 long time. at the threes, the premium preston, ibrahim, dry sea quoted, a humanitarian move, you know, on the car. and the issue of prison, a swap was raised. we announced that we were ready to do the swap as a completely to mandatory and look different to you. this humidity or an act could be a step between iran and america. us preston. joe barton issued a statement saying he celebrated the return of the americans, but would continue to impose sanctions on the wrong, which provocative actions his top diplomat, anthony blinked and set the school for negotiations on the new kid deals. i'm not like the freedom of these unjustly detained americans has always been

a separate track in our engagement or for that matter, lack of engagement with a ron. so irrespective of what was happening or not happening, for example, in pursuing the effort to return to the nuclear agreement, we've been focused on working independently to bring these americans home. both sides have been hostile since the 1979 revolution in east washington has longer post echelon, expanding its new program and its close ties with russia. and it one has been ended by us support for as well as and involvement in middle east politics as well as its imposition of sanctions. deals and split tensions have escalated off to 2018 and then preston. 20 go new truck pulled out of an easy to navigate broke. a deal for enrollment has came back on its nuclear program in exchange for lifting of sanctions. biden says he wants to return to the deals as long as it go on complies

. but the new agreement has not yet been switched. this could be a beginning for extend that and for the talks on the 2 negotiations as well as lifting the sanctions against the ron. but there's an issue whether that the americans will be able to do with before their election in the us or not. do you assess, caught the village? what evidence, money unfrozen under the prisoners will deal with only be spent on humanitarian needs, such as food and medicine? that would be welcoming yvonne that's in the group of an economic crisis, but solving installation and unemployment within the us. republicans of denouncing the christmas for as a rent payment on the consumption leave for inside study. all right, let's go ahead and bring in our guests. joining us from to her on is for is id is the head of the american studies department at the university of to ron and

a specialist and us a wrong relations roxanne farm on farm. i enjoyed just from london, she's a lecturer in modern middle east politics at the university of cambridge and a specialist on middle east security. and scott lucas joins us from birmingham. he's a professor of us and international relations at university college dublin. and the founder and editor of the online new site e. a world view, a one welcome to you on thanks so much for joining us today on inside story for let me start with you today. iran in the us of carried out a prisoner swap as part of a cut their mediated deals, experts believe that this prisoners, what may be a step toward be escalating tensions between the us and the wrong. what do you think is this just a one off, or could this lead potentially to a saw in relations? you know, i don't think it's going to be a major shift in us policy towards the, on, i think the, by the administration either as on vending or unable to clinic the past mistakes of previous administrations and come to

a policy that's actually working for the united states but i think if you get these type of agreements, small agreements that you can eventually reach and the stage of as the confrontation is not something that both sides and worry about on a daily basis. so it's not going to resolve any major issues, but i think it's one to step in in the right direction. right? yeah. for them, that's what i actually wanted to follow up and ask you about next because the present, right? you see when he arrived in new york for the u. s. united nations general assembly um, he told media there that this could be a step in the direction of humanitarian action between us and america. i mean, at the very least, do you think that this could lead to more dialogue? you know, you're on the united states have been talking for many years during the a while my best solution, the lance fun in minnesota broke all the records that they got to the number of

hours that negotiated with the us find minister. that's jobs that you find john kid and you don't, then united states have been in directly talking for many, many months now. so. so that's not a major problem. the problem is, is basically the difficulty is that so we have in the us congress, we have the public hands that oppose any type of the approach meant to be used on or the lowering of tension and submit to die. and we have some powerful democrats, like the best man in this was the chairman of the foreign affairs committee in the us senate at that. i was not in line with the by the administration's policies towards it. and he oppose the new to the agreement in 2015. he opposes the new to the agreements. now the,

i think that's the level of confrontation is much more in washington when you compare that to test, right. impact on gender, the people the one to see less says tensions between even in united states. roxanne, i saw your reaction to something what fraud was saying is i'm going to give you a chance to jump in and i want to get your take on this. i mean, what do you say is this prisoner exchange going to lead to more dialogue between the us any ron? um you know, iran in the us rarely agree on anything. so this is clearly a rare event. how significant is it? well, i think that it certainly was a prerequisite to then proceeding on to possibly re starting the nuclear negotiations. i think it is indicative of the fact that they're going to be small, de escalate towards steps that are taken. i think both iran and the united states are seeing the advantage of undergoing an undertaking. transactional deals that

are limited in scope and where both countries can claim a when and this definitely fell into that category. so i think there will be future smaller scale negotiations. there are a number of parts of many of the rooms all over the world. so there's possibly one already being discussed that is sitting in japan. and every one of these negotiations, there are elements that both sides can when our can can gain from and then both sides have a degree of compromise that they can offer. so i think they're trying to reduce that to the temperature at the moment. and i think what we're going to see is quite a few of these where both states are trying to get something out of it, particularly as biting moves into a and election year. and in the run of course,

and there's the presidential election is only 6 months after the american election, so they 2 will be looking for specific areas of achievement in, in these negotiations. scott, the us secretary of state anthony blinking seemed to leave the door open to potential diplomacy on the nuclear file going forward. he described it as perhaps the number one issue of concern, but he also suggested that nothing was imminent. do you think this is the stance of the, by the administration behind the scenes as well? a reflection reality. the ball is in charge court on the broader question regarding the new purch. and i think mister is doctors already gave us a very important clue here, which is that they have no real willingness at this point to really drive those talks for. let's get some facts on the table that are very important here. first of all, the past in early 2022, we were close to

a settlement to revive the 2015 nuclear deal getting the americans back in after the trump administrations withdrawal. the genuine looked american sanctions and it was wrong that back the way they backed away initially over the question of the status of the revolutionary cars. then they backed away crucially over the question of inspections and nuclear facilities. september 2023. and that is even as you and are talking about thank goodness, the release of these hostages from iran and exchange for the 6000000000 in iran here in font. iran has stepped off the restrictions on the inspections on the nuclear facilities. they are refusing to give up the video surveillance types. they are refusing to put cameras backend of the facilities. and in the past few days, they have withdrawn the accreditation. the designation is called one 3rd of the i, a e, a inspectors. so in other words, they're taking a harder one on inspections as they continue to step up production of uranium in

violation of the 2015 agreement. so while the foreign ministry says we want to deal with the americans, they saw that 2 weeks ago. other elements of the iranian leadership are taking that harder line, which is we in fact are not giving any ground on inspections or on verification of our nuclear program. and i think doctor is out a stance that he's not expecting or breaks from the task. it reflects that iranian leadership's position for i did you have any reaction to what? uh, scott was saying there because he was saying that essentially iran is taking a harder line towards the inspections by the i a e a. and i want to get your take on this. i mean, when it comes to potentially getting around a negotiating table again for the jcp, a way uh for the nuclear deal is that something you can see happening can progress actually be made? i agree with scott you're on is taking the hardware line. and the reason is that the announcement for what you don't has been doing. and the last number of days

came after the european members of address, if you a fence u k in germany analysis that's uh october 26. when the sanctions a number of sanctions on either on under j. c. p o, a is supposed to be listed. they're not going to accept it. that's part of j. c, p o, a. i'm going to do what the americans did in 2018 in 2018 at trump left the needed to new the agreement and the europeans few days ago. and i was that doug, going to officially violate the need to be, i agree with the, you know, it is not possible for the it on to you not let's under the fall know a multi last what are they agreements if the sides leave is the agreement if they don't want to follow their parts of the bargain, it's not logical for these on to follow what you don't need supposed to do now. and

the basic message is that if you cause difficulties for it on, if you violate the agreement that was agreed upon in 2015, that's going to have some cost. and the cost is you're not going to have as much as access as you had before and what scott said is correct. so then you don't allow one 3rd of the inspectors to continue their work. that means that 2 thirds of the inspectors are continuing their inst action. so it's, you know, this, the coin has to sides. scott, i know you want to jump in, but i need to get a question to roxanne 1st, and i'll give you an opportunity. roxanne, i want to take a step back for a moment, you know, getting to this point when it comes to the prisoner's swap, it took 2 years of intense negotiations that were mediated by thought that this has been a successful outcome for caught the but the 2nd year of the negotiation,

saw mediators shuttling between hotels and door high. that means that both sides of this, the americans and the iranians never met face to face. so i want to ask you, just how difficult it was to get to this point. well, the iranians of the americans have made an art out of negotiating without being face to face. the same thing was going on and vienna during the jcp away negotiations where it was the europeans that were shuttling between them. so i think it's very difficult. i think it's when people do a stablish report personally that you know, greater breakthroughs can take place. but i think this is the landscape and to go and address a couple of the points, the both the other guests of made it is a very toxic and extremely dangerous landscape. and i think it's always easy for one side or another to point out what the, what are the re run of the united states has done. but it's just been

a series of usually setbacks. and then the occasional breakthrough is because another thing of course that happened right before the prisoner swap 24 hours before was that the united states and oppose further sanctions on a run due to the mass. i mean, a situation that happened to be an anniversary, right? at that point they impose sanctions on further authorities. any ron that are in the security area. so it's just doesn't help very much in my view to look at a tit for tat i. what i think is important is for us to see that it's a very high priority blinking has made just clear for the united states to, to begin to help, to reduce the amount of stock piling that's going on. and i think you run, send a, a signal about that in that. but as with the negotiations for the prisoner swap, wrapping up, it dropped. it's,

it's stockpiling of 60 percent enriched uranium for the 1st time. so i think is the subtle signals that need to be picked up. that can be the indicator that actually there is very much a chance of a next step. scott. all right, i saw you also reacting to some of what roxanne was saying there too. so please go ahead, i found a plan just put it very, very well in terms of reading the signals that are coming from both sides. so it's important to look further huts. i mean, doctors, all these arguments that this is all because of the european powers that they were not going to list all the measures. all come october is quite frankly, a bit of nonsense. the fact of the matter is, is that to expect the european powers by the united states to withdraw all the provisions of the 2015 nuclear deal, given that iran hash stock pile, 60 percent uranium. even though it is slowed the production down slightly in the

last quarter to expect everyone to effectively say, well, that's it. there's absolutely no reason why iran should have any terms with which it has to comply. that's ridiculous. and so for your want to then put it fist down and say, well that's it. we're going to restrict inspectors. we're going to continue as we have done for 2 years to not allow any access to video of our nuclear facilities. you know, at some point because of the around the economy of although this will be a switch to bit by the 6 billions they're getting under the terms of the release of the product presence at some point because the wrong and economy they're going to have to trump management call and talk seriously about trying to get in agreement, which on the one hand does begin to lift the american sanctions. does begin to remove those actions that have been in place for years, gets the us back in the agreement, but also returns your onto the compliance of the nuclear deal, which says,

3.67 percent uranium production is what you responsibly should be producing. now at this point, when they're producing 60 percent, that's a huge deal. and i'm afraid that suggests that may not be easily managed before we get into the us and they are running pro commentary elections in 2024. scott, you mentioned something that i wanted to ask you about next uh, the $6000000000.00 in unfrozen assets. and you also said something. maybe you think of that, you talked about signals coming from both sides. and what i'm getting out of here is the fact that in the past couple of weeks you've heard different officials in the us, anthony ron describing a how this money could be use. so you have us officials maintaining that these fonts can only be used for humanitarian needs. but there are also iranian officials over the course of the last couple of weeks, i've suggested the money could be spent wherever they want to spend it, which is it, i mean, is this up for debate, or is this something that has been clearly delineated in this agreement under the

terms of the deal of that 6000000000 is do you manage coming out of touch? it is to be over same there. it is not being overseen by iranian officials. it has to be dispatched for food for medical items for other items that are deemed to be humana, terry, so as to the head of the central bank in iran, admitted a few weeks ago with this deal with the instruct. no, iranian officials do not control that 6000000000 and for present, right? easy to say otherwise. it's misleading probably for domestic consumption. now, it is vacation that to something which people are debating that iran does have a bit of flexibility because the money that it spends on to the amount of sending internally now that it contract through the 6000000000 pot. they could use that money for food and medicine for all other items. they could use it for other domestic programs. they could even use it for the military. a point the critics of the deal have been pointing out. but now on the fundamentals, iran does not have unrestricted access to that $6000000000.00 when it is finally

placed in trotter and overseen by tutorial authorities. roxanne earlier, you talked about the fact that the president biden is heading into an election year in the us in 2024. and i, i want to ask you how this deal might impact him politically in the us going forward and how worried the bite and administration might be when it comes to the ramification of it. because we've kind of seen the, by the ministration, be a little bit on the defensive about this, saying that this was not a ran some talking about how they are still taking a tough stance toward iran. so is there a lot of concern privately, amongst biden officials about how this could impact him and included, have negative ramifications on him domestically in the us going forward. but of course, his, of the opposition is the republicans are going to make this case. but the fact is that this is a run in money, it is not a ransom. and in fact,

my understanding of the terms is that should there be any abuse or lack of transparencies that the united states can restrict the further use of whatever funds remain. so it's got a, a safety latch on it and in terms of whereby it and is going with this. i think that you're mad at terry inside is a big plus for him. and he is that kind of president that emphasizes that kind of thing. and so it was a big p r day for him and played well in that situation. and i think, yes, the concern on the part of the republicans is that there will be expenditures possibly in areas. now that the iranians can direct us these funds to where in the past they were buying food and, and medicine. but if you look at the iranian budget, the defense security communities sectors have been extremely well

funded. so it's more likely that these funds will be used to relieve some of the pressure is on the rise in poverty. and the, the extenuating circuit circumstances brought about by a declining economy for no other reason than to improve the, the atmosphere by the public uh towards the, the government and to help reduce the amount of grievances that are at the moment slashing around in the run. so ad, so we were just talking about what impact uh, this deal might have on president biden in the us. i want to ask you about how this deal might potentially help president. right. you see in iran what it has the reaction been thus far from the general public? from your point of view, do you think this is something that will strengthen him among his supporters or do

you think this is something that could potentially you know, cause him any kind of political peril in the wrong? i think the, the agreement that yesterday the exchange is going to have to present enter a c internally that he is showing that he is able to achieve these type of agreements. it's going to have, you know, on, but it's finances. so you don't. yeah. and happy the i'm any chance of puppy, but the exception of some republicans and some professors that are missing the points and utilize and the south koreans are happy because they can have a normal economic relations with you. then a given the fact that this issue is off the table, is there any is not happy for obvious reasons. and is there any support that, you know, i'm in a position is obviously not happy. but overall, i think this was

a good agreement. and if by then wants to have a correct policy towards it on, she could return to the agreement. today i teach american government at university of 10 on under the american system, the new president can notify the executive orders of the previous president. so what by then could do on the 1st day of his presidency. and what he could do today is to return to the agreements, giving you don, 2 or 3 months to go back to compliance and you don't, would do that. it probably in just a few weeks. the fact that you're having this conversation is because of the chaos in washington. and because of the wrong recommendations that the people in the us government are getting from the so called deed on experts that seems to know nothing about the on scott, we only have about a minute and a half left. but i could see that you want to jump in, so please go ahead. i think at the end of the day trying to plan one side or just

the other half. that's just a bit of pastoring and we can put that aside. the fact the matter is, is that there is a fundamental to fundamentals here. one is, is that we have got a very limited deal which iran struck because it needed money for its economy. we need to have good faith measures on both sides to advance on the nuclear program. but secondly, the equally important story this week was the fact of the ongoing protest in your role and for rights for were for, for justice. you're wanting leadership in part, tried to use the story to deflect from those protests which they currently to repress and call you the 2024. as important as the nuclear deal is a topic of discussion. equally important for those social movements within iran trying to find space to freely express themselves and not be repressed. so will be watching both stories at the same time. and for ad i also saw, you know, yeah, i saw you want to jump in there for i please go ahead, stop sanctioning,

stop sanctioning. you don't, young people are this, you guys are interested in human rights, the audience stop sanctioning then instead of increase, i say i know the are on the paper and getting i know is you off? i taught a your i, tanya, i post on if you're interested, i'm going to call my friends or accurately entered into that room. i know you're, i know that was a mistake. i hope that was a mistake. we have honestly about to you around and people don't lecture me the people on this thing. you've got the wrong, you don't, you don't like to be function and so forth. think sanctions against your own young people is unjustified. it is a more on the right hand corner. i want find this just i think that's all i need to work and they want rice. they want rice and social freedoms as well. don't they? all right, well we have a nice, they have social 3 times. they don't need any recommendations from people. thank you. thanks a lot. i'm sorry to interrupt you. we have run out of time. so we're going to have to leave the conversation there. thanks so much. all our guest is id roxanne farm on from my end and scott lucas and thank you to for watching. you can see the

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