the story of love, patience, and pay. what forces me to live in the account is my love for him. i'll just you to her old fellows, this trouble over a couple. trying to get there and said help pull palistine unit of food, you can, can be the next 2 months should meet, drink go out or do anything just say shut t, let com, the price of low. oh, no. just euro. scotland says once again, facing a shot down in fighting amongst republicans as pressing a hopes to this is federal budget, but what will a sub domain for americans and tenants fee of buses the last minute. this is inside story, the

hello down. welcome to the program. i'm in or a kyle. the u. s. is headed towards another government shut down. congress needs to agree on a new funding bill by the end of this month. and if not, thousands of federal employees will be sent home. that means cause hailing many services and programs is not the 1st time this has happened. american politicians seem to be constantly pushing budget negotiations to the bank. if you have another sign of a date, 3 divided political landscape and washington will go to our panel in just a moment for this report from fence and one of the latest push in congress stand, the stand off on the federal budget has failed to shut down with us government is growing more likely with each passing day. the pressure is growing on how speaker kevin mccarthy to find a solution failure to do so, could see him ousted from his position. the only thing anybody. when's a shut down safe for one model would have shut down, dead stops paying our troops. how do you have more leverage in that situation?

i've watch, shut down. have to shut down everybody's committed space. the main opposition comes from hard line members of his own republican party, but many what major cuts in spending and some may be willing to go all the way, give the american speak with the tax money back. that will be a good thing. with a take, a couple of weeks will shut down. probably. so that's, that's fine. we need to have like the american people tired spanish congress passed to extend funding before september 30th. after that, the government will have to shut down until more money is approved. that means non essential staff are sent home. some areas like law enforcement and air traffic control will be effected. other services would continue, but at reduced capacity there's been more than 20 government shut down in the past 40 years, most and we lost it a couple of days. but more recent ones in 20132019 went on for weeks. the fits ratings agency recently downgraded the us credit raising sizing and study

deterioration and governance over the past 20 years. the divisions and congress alone made it difficult to pass major spending legislation and with politicians once again going to the brink on the budget. it seems likely americans may be heading free as another government shut down. fits mullahan for inside story. the well, that's bringing. okay now and they're all joining us from the us in washington. rena shaw, see the political republican political strategist and how does but i, pennsylvania thomas gift director at the center on the us politics university college london. and also in washington lane came up funding direct to up a center for a tech effective public management at brookings, available and welcome to each of you. it's almost as talk with you because the u. s . has had more than 20 shutdowns in the last 40 years, we might be forgiven. so thinking, here we go again, the same old story,

but this time it does feel a little different because it's quite hard to see how it can be resolved and what a final bill might look like. well, i think that you're absolutely right, but this isn't anything necessarily new. and as you know that there have been 20 gaps in federal funding since 1976. and of course most of these have happened under divided government. so i think that it's important to have a little bit of context whenever we're kinda viewing the situation. but at the same time, it does seem like we're at a real impasse now with polarization. as significant as it is, it is very difficult to see how these 2 sides come to an agreement. and to a large extent, kevin mccarthy is being held hostage by the right flank of his party, but it's also nothing new and it's done all the way back to when he assumed the speakership, we always knew that this was going to be difficult. i don't think anyone was under any illusions that it would not be, but you know,

the fact that there haven't been any real breakthroughs is quite dispiriting and more more. it looks like we're not going to reach an agreement. by the end of the months. we're going to show what the republicans want to achieve. i realized that still just grateful question because there's no one voice in the republican policy at the moment. but broadly speaking, what are they trying to achieve have by stalling this bill by not putting funding in place to stuff or government shut down in this room? is this very important to recognize that the republican party is not united within the house in august? you got a section of the hard liners which are, which is a house where you can caucus the far right. members, if you will. and then the more moderate, what are considered establishment members, folks who are buying a car, the side considered has allies. and those who have a very good memory of what the shut down in 2013 looked like just 10 years ago that was put on because of the repeal of obamacare. these are members of more modern

ones. they don't want to shut down to make the republicans look bad. now again pulling back here, what you see is mccarthy in between a rock and a hard place and it's been set for many weeks now that he is in this place. but how does he find his way out? one really clear exit at this moment. a time is for him to work with democrats. so as of right this moment, the republicans in the, in the house and, and the house itself has gone home for the weekend. so mccarthy's spending the weekend really slashing his own party spending bills and these revised bills. so put on the store when they can be next week, just 4 days before the deadline. this is sort of, i'm not unprecedented, but leaving many people biding their nails because this is sold down to the wire. and we've seen this before come down to the wire in such a way. but again, right now, mccarthy is not showing any signs of wanting to work with democrats and thought again last after last week's failure to pass a continuing resolution. if he's really only good strategy to of for the shut down

. so what the people on the far right of the republican policy, we want that, what is their agenda all they actually facing a shot down they would be forcing to shut down and do you have the same agenda since january? since they gave kevin mccarthy the speakership, now they did so a by mccarthy making many concession. and one of the biggest ones we know was that it takes a single voice to go to the floor and call for removal of the speaker. so i wouldn't be surprised if that happens before the end of this year because these bar right members want to bring it all down. they want to see x ray and customers funding. they want their demands about one of them being no more a to ukraine. i'll get from the on the world stage, it looks like american lawmakers are very united in having ukraine's batch funding them, giving them what they need to push back on the invasion by putting but the, regardless of how you slip this thing. there are many republicans in, in congress,

any growing caucus have done starting with that far right direction. they don't want to see a blank check issue to ukraine and the, the cues bite in of doing so, and they're choosing their own colleagues. mccarthy. and again, more moderate members of doing that as well. mm hm. and it is hard to say a way forward, isn't it? because you've got this agenda by the fall, right. republicans freeze massive spending cuts even if they get them passed through the house of representatives that will never pass the senate. you know, that's right. and you know, one of the interesting things in the end, and i think that the previous speaker made allusion to this what the far right lots really is to burn the house down. okay. and that's the kevin mccarthy's own words. i mean there's, there's that there's a nihilistic attitude here. they're not going to get what they want. this is not productive. and to show you how i'm productive it is. all you have to do is look at the senate. the senate has plenty of republicans in there. um some of them very,

very conservative, but in fact, they have passed appropriations bills. they have made deals with the democrats and you have a compromise situation in the senate. so this is a lot of grandstanding and for no particular good and accept forgetting people's names in the paper. and the bottom line is when this is happened before, the republicans have lost, okay, they, they lose when it comes to shutting down the government. and that's going to happen this time. so what, what everybody's waiting for is one of 2 things. either. somehow, mccarthy will pull some of these extreme right wingers into a more moderate position. or he will do what a lot of people think. he may end up being forced to do, which is basically make a deal with the democrats, get the bills past, and then they will call for his allister. and he will have to find on democratic votes to remain speaker, and that's a, that's

a dramatic scenario. and clearly one that he see he wants to avoid thomas, which scenario do you see happening as well? you know, i think as the previous speaker noted, kevin mccarthy is going to do everything he can not to have to compromise with democrats. i think that that would be probably least old to his own future political prospects. but you know, at the same time, if it's between that and the government shutdown, he may feel ultimately like he has no choice. i think to some extent, it is possible that some of these hard, right republicans are really doing this in a performative way just like they performed during the vote over the house speakership. and that the ultimately fold, because they will feel like that's the least of the worst of 2 options. but you know, at the same time, given their nihilistic attitude sort of towards the system. blow it all down. maybe that is what they prefer. you know, again,

it does kind of get them in the headlines and they're really not playing to a, a national audience. they're playing to the right wing base. they're playing to their constituents in a particular district that are jerry matter. that more they have a very safe seats. them where they're only challenges likely to come in a primary from the even further. right. so you know, a lot of this just comes down to the individual incentives, but as a whole, it's suboptimal for congress and rena. if kevin, the coffee is pushed down, so if his speaker role, who are jumping ahead a bit more and we will get back to the government, shut down in a minute. but if he's pushed out of his speaker role, who would take his place? who could give enough space to take his place because as we've just had, it was an arduous process even to get him into that job to night. there's no clear uh, successor if it's mccarthy is no longer in the speakership. certainly there are names that have been slowed it, but they're, they don't really have a chance. they're not viable. one of those names congressman by gates,

a sort of younger member from the state of florida representing quite a rural area. i myself actually used to be a senior advisor to that office for hidden upfront assessor. and i can tell you that in the southern part of united states, of course, it's very read very republican. but there are more people who are starting to see the congress for what it is. it's disapproval rating continues to go climb. and they do see this performance politics as being a sort of part and parcel with the era. but they are growing more and more frustrated with what washington is not doing. so these members are not offering anything except for saying this person is an establishment hack. and they are working with democrats and you don't want that. so that is when gauge is proposing . he would like to try to take over the speakership from mccarthy, but he's just not a clear and viable option. so it would be quite humiliating for mccarthy and his allies. i mean, this was, this comes at a time where republicans need more support than ever. it's coming right on at the

time, you know, what would i consider was the longest cycles for president, and in the, in the year where there's going to be real discussions of needs for republicans to moderate on topics like abortion. so what the reality really looks like here is that the car, the needs to do what, again these bar right, caucus numbers do not want him to do and ridicule him for doing which is work with democrats and brain spending measures to the floor. next we can pass them, but again, he's taken sort of the option that is top is, which is going for a full term, full term spending options into the short term spending options, which he could not get past last week. and what this really does is highlight of how badly government shut down would be for our country. it has wide ranging effects in places like alaska for examples under reason. mccallski has said it would be detrimental to, to fishermen and people who rely on federal licenses for their livelihoods. bar right, members, think that government, shutdowns, federal government,

shutdowns don't impact their constituents. but the very reality is that they do me a lot and give us an idea of what actually happens when the us government shots down. well, the 1st thing that happens is that all non essential employees are for load, usually and past foot for shut downs. the military has been exempt and home, some parts of homeland security. so there's some parts of the government that are called essential that is mostly safety and security. but many of them i have to go to work without pay. and as you can imagine, that is not a good option for most people, right. brown, when they shut down for one to 3 days, it's no big deal. they get their back pay. but as the 20182019 shut down showed that was a month. so that was a month where people who issue these fishing licenses in alaska as rita just talked about, and then other things are not being paid. and so it's,

it's very detrimental to the morale of the workers and it just ship slows everything down. there's all sorts of things that cannot be done. people waiting for permits, people waiting for passports. you can't get passports, you can't get visas, all of that is shut down. so it's very detrimental not to mention the, the grant making process. what people don't understand about the u. s. federal government is a lot of it is just sending money to states and localities and to non profits that are doing things like drug counseling or mental health con counseling. all of that shuts down. so there isn't any nor miss ripple effect throughout the country through out the economy. when there's a government shut down, it's almost, it's just not an effective way to govern. is it? that's right, absolutely not. i mean, this helps, no one americans want a government that functions and this isn't a government that functions,

but also beyond sort of just the general ripple effects. it creates huge uncertainty in the markets. and of course, the last thing wall street wants to see is on starting to we already saw with the last brinkman ship over and over the debt ceiling fits, downgrade bid, the us to credit rating. so that has a long term implications for the service. thing of the debt, you know, fewer people are going to want to invest. this has sort of broader implications for, for the us economy. so now this isn't a government that is working. it's not what americans elected the representatives to the washington to do. and i think to a large extent, you know, it's a failure, it's, it's, it's dysfunction, which we, unfortunately been saying go on for quite some time. but it was thomas was saying, fits downgraded to the us credit rating in august. and the end when, when it did that, it noted a study to taylor ation in governance over the last 20 years. this is pointing to what you were saying earlier about performance politics in congress. the republican

policies, the divisions, the, the parts of the ship between the republicans and the democrats has wished such a high level that it is. again, it's just not effective as it is not delivering to americans what americans deserve to have, which is a fully functioning government. in a representative democracy like ours, it's very important for people to feel represented. but of course, you know, we've got high levels of dissatisfaction with our elected officials across the board. people are feeling more and more that congress is not only out of touch with them, but congress is that does not represent their interest. so their systemic reforms that can be congress better. but a lot of them have not been uh, widely accepted. um, things like term limits, things like gerrymandering. we have the state issue, states have to act and do things in a certain manner that can square up and make the federal government more effective . the way i see it. but also having big money in, in our elections is usually consequential. what we see,

that does is give lots of power to the income. but on the senate side, you see often scenarios are becoming almost a norm. senator dianne feinstein of california who has had many an illness is up and also the leader of the republicans in the senate. senator mitch mcconnell, who was frozen at the podium and looked like you've had more than just what would be considered a senior moment twice this year. these are the people that are representing us and so you've got millennials in, jen z. those board after 1981 who are increasingly frustrated because of the way of life that those sitting in congress have enjoyed for years is not being enjoyed by us. that is home ownership, that's the ability to scale social economic bladder. and these problems are being put on congress has inability to work together to compromise. now, of course is a former, he'll aid i know that to get anything done on capitol hill. one must reach across the island, shake hands with the other side. uh so i am encouraged by one development related to the shut down as the situation gets worse for mccarthy, on the one hand,

and he's running out a room from his cell set of allies. there is a group of conservatives in the senate that are tired of deferring to kevin mccarthy and be want to see a vote on legislation that would automatically impose stop gap spending patches and that would permanently prevent shutdowns. now that's a kind of reforms and solutions. i want to see that i'm out of congress, but we see less and less of these and there's no hope for encouragement that they will continue to create the stripe of solutions. i do hope this one passes because the shutdowns are not just that aside of the times they've become during normal life. and to just be at the, at the 11th hour to see the negotiation happen at the very last minute for years on end. does it give me any faith or restore it, and the institutional congress and then do you agree with that proposal for orthodontic stop gap funds? a which of course would stop the government from shutting down, but wouldn't not also just allow congress to do what it does very well, which is procrastinate and kick the can down the road and not make any fun

decisions on as negotiations. i think that's a very good idea. i, i can't see the republicans in the house going for it. i mean, i think one of the things i think of for an audience is need to understand is just how as we say in english, the tail is wagging the dog. and when it comes to this congress right, there are in fact a very small number of freedom clock this members, and an even smaller number on the house rules committee. who are dictating things that go against what the vast majority of democrats and republicans in the house would like to do. the service has shown that it is possible to make a compromise between these 2 sides. and here, this group that is really nihilistic, if it's um they want to burn the house down, they're cutting, they're in control somehow. somebody's got to stop that. ok,

whether it's kevin mccarthy, whether it's kevin mccarthy losing his speakership because of it somehow that has to be stopped. this is not the way democratic government men's work. we're a very small, small minority gets to call the shots. and somehow the republicans have gotten themselves into this 6 and somebody's got to get them out of it. tell us, do you have any offices here? how the whole of america couldn't, cannot be held run some by the small groups of individuals? well, it's very difficult and again, i'll just go back to the fact that a lot of this is just an institutional feature of how congress works, of course, to the senators and representatives in the house are elected in 2 different ways. basically, senators, you have 2 senators per each state, whereas, you know, for their house members, they're really representing just a small district and at the state level. gerrymandering has become so rife, essentially the creation of states,

each in which both democrats as well as republicans essentially faced no real challenge or in general elections, or at least in a lot of these places, they don't feel any real challenge. and so the, the only challenge that they're likely to face is from either the right bank or the left bank of their parties. so they have every incentive to move toward the polls. when you combine that with the rise of out of state money and just the rise of money generally, which has become sort of essentially incentivized politicians to, to court sort of ideologically pure interest. low turn out primaries, all these things i think add up to a situation where you get these representatives that you know are, are just sort of voicing your opinions of a small nation of americans are and aren't doing a very good job that sort of representing the whole, the country and when a you mentioned earlier that data is up, becoming increasingly disenfranchised with this performance. politics on congress

and congress. this is an unimportant selection. yeah. coming up 2024. how do you think this behavior that was saying on capitol hill at the moment is going to impact the republican both. and it's obviously means yet to be seen what the genuine impact would be because it takes a lot of time to make its way down. but we have to look at this back, so we're not looking to have a threadbare majority in the house. and the state of that really rests on 18 incumbents that are sitting in church, gets pretty friendly to president joe biden. and so on like in deep bread districts i, there needs to be compromised and the crisis that is actually really popular. and like i alluded to earlier, i believe that the average voter can see this for what this is, the representative failing to get something done for them regardless of what that representative strikes are. so the stakes are extremely high. republicans have had control of the house for what barely 9 months and so with that little power under their belt, a little amount of time of having power under their belts. there's,

there's really a lot on the line here. it how their constituents can see that moving forward. but more so i think it's about the issue is there's so many kitchen table issues is what we call them here. that are more important to the average builder as we grow closer to electric, who will be our next occupant of the white house, with things like the economy. coordination has talked about quite a bit, but it doesn't feel like either side wants to address that crisis of, of, and also housing as well. that's, that's always a moving crisis. but in reality, it's politics is a feeling, right? and if you feel that things are not going well for you, you're more likely to punish those who essentially have the range of power right now. and to shut down could make, could be a huge stain on the face of republicans because it will look like it was the republicans who forced it, caused it. and again, the blame will rest of them do a life. so i do agree with that the, this, but these are public and divisions can only help the democrats election prospects, even if a shot does hus americans,

if it's prolonged and it starts to affect the economy on top of already inflation and strikes and will be able to ells that are affecting america, you know, we knew it absolutely. look, we know from history that the republicans in the last recent, most recent shut down the republican party, has suffered in public opinion and electrolyte because of their tendency to try to take us to the wire and, and the costs are shut down. but there's something else happening to usually political parties have a sort of clear idea of what success means a success means which in the, in the general election, there is a, a piece of this republican party that insists on recruiting far right candidates. and what we saw on the 2022 election was that the, the trump want to be the far right candidates. guess why they lost in the general election. and so far in 2023. when we look at special elections at the state,

legislative level are, you know, lowered down that don't get that much national attention. guess what? the same thing is happening. so there will come a point when this, the behavior of the freedom call, guess what they're do, what they're imposing on the republican party. when people say this is too costly to us. and somehow people are going to have to confront the fact that they are losing because of the actions of this smaller group of people on the far right. then once, once they do that, then i think we may return to somewhat more of a normal republican party. but right now, this is not a normal situation. we did last. what to you? do you think that will happen sooner off the laser to it? i really don't know where we stand right now, because i think it's a most unusual moment there's. it's not a game of chess, it's

a game of checkers it's, it's been said by house republican and just this past week. i mean, this is, this is not sophisticated, this isn't complex, this is literally a moment in which you're seeing some very extreme numbers hold members hostage. and this is dawn. how i believe our government at its highest level should work. so though i am dissatisfied right now, i am hopeful that something could be possible, but it right now we are barely to adopt shut down and i don't think it would be very short. but, and i do think it look, makes us a week on the world stage, particularly when it comes to our defense spending. so as somebody who wants to see america put 1st time, but again, i think our lawmakers should put their heads together to the right thing and maybe work on a creative solution or to well, suddenly we visiting the subjects again over the coming week, maybe weeks. it's a very busy week ahead in congress. thanks very much to august for joining us today, rena saw thomas gift and elaine came up. i'm thank you to for watching. you can see

the program again any time by visiting a website that's out, is there a dot com for further discussion to visual facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash 8 inside story. you can also join the conversation on x all handle is at a j inside story. from me laura kyle: i'm the whole team here. it's 5 in the . so the 2 states control information that's controlling the narrative to dominate thing the media. how does the narrative improve? public opinion dependent norma, spite,

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stealing manual beneath. we were in a property on a road casting out his ear english proud recipient in new york festival was approved costs are of the year award for the 7th year running the assignment site down in dow. how would they look at the headlines here now? just a era funerals are being held in the occupied westbank office, who is ready for us is killed at least 2 palestinians during a raid on the nor shems refugee come kind of spinning in groups of declared the general striking nearby to cut them protests against the right, the abraham joins us from the in the occupied westbank. so what is the same like now until caught them the scene here is.