sions on that, in terms of protecting their jobs as well. again, we'll have to see this entire agreement in full before we can get all of the details. but it appears that this tentative agreement certainly will in the writers strike. again, it needs to be signed off by the union membership in the next week or 2 when it goes to vote. it's important to point out as well, that actors, tens of thousands of actors remain on strike. now the studios will focus their attention on working out a deal with them. the headlines on al jazeera, large numbers of asylum seekers are continuing to cross over from mexico. nearly 9000 people arrived on saturday alone. the mayor of el paso says the border city is now a breaking points while another city eagle passes declared a state of emergency. several people had been injured in

a blast of the fuel station and the going to camera back. the cause of the blast is a node. it happened as thousands of ethnic armenians leave the region after as the by johns take over this week. the army and government says it's preparing to take it and tens of thousands more people who may fleet. azerbaijan has tightened its grip on the region of the last week ceasefire with ethnic armenian fighters. from below to a boss club. it was very dangerous there. they took out everybody, they could, people were fleeing and low res buses and cars. they used everything they could get into. we don't know what happens to us next. is my new line. we don't know what the government has in store for us. there's no chance of going back. if there were any chances we wouldn't leaving the 1st place. it's very dangerous there to move, but ukraine says it killed the commander of russia's blacks, the fleet and a missile strike last week, admiral victor sako, off is reported to have died in an attack on the black sea fleet headquarters in

sylvester pole that's in russian controls crimea, ukraine says 34 russian officers were killed in the strike. but russia's defense ministry has said that only one service man was missing. the 16 officials have been arrested as part of the investigation in libya and to the flood disaster which killed thousands after 2 dams broke clean up operations or continuing. and during the, after hundreds of bodies washed up on the shores in the days after the devastating floods and international aid conference is planned next month, molly's military leadership says it expects a small delay to the presidential election is scheduled for february. head says technical reasons are to blame for the change. assume you go to has been entering the president since 2021. those are the headlines on alpha 0 up next, counting the cost to stay tuned. and i'll be back in the top of the hour with more world news from intimate moments

to major surgery change the witness award winning films from around on out to 0. the why money inside this is counting the cost on al jazeera, your weekly look at the wealth of business and economics. this week have interest rates paint major central bank signal, a pause in the most aggressive monastery tightening policy in decades. where does not leave the bikes against inflation? also this week, the philippines is one of the fastest growing economies, an agent, but inflation remains one of his biggest challenges. we hear from the nation extra

finance. plus, moving out of a job to celebrate to promotion. we find out why some work is quit just off to being rewarded for that performance. kinda make errors supply bottlenecks, the full out of the war and ukraine. and of course, in energy crisis, countries across the world have been hit by multiple crises that i've sent the price of soaring food, electricity, even the internet to become more expensive. central banks globally rushed to increase interest rates and homeless synchronize move in order to tame inflation. now, often moving 18 months of the most aggressive monetary policy, timing and decades gotten this him, the message could be nearing its peak to the u. s. federal reserve has decided to hold interest rates in its latest meeting. the bank of england has also paused its rate hype, solved us, the price slowed down, and prices. european central bank has also

a signal to hold some monastery tightening up to hiking rates or rac hold high. a 4 percent 9 major central bank raise rates by combined 3915 basis points in this cycle alone. japan is an outlaw at the global measure. so how do interest rates work and how do they affect people? hakeem rates makes it more expensive to borrow money, it discourages people from taking out loans. consumers then have less money to spend, which reduces demand as low as prices. interest rates affect everything from call loans to housing debt. first time home buyers with a mortgage, for example, could see their monthly payments increase if they rise companies would that also have to pay more on the investment credit demand for workers could decrease. i'm salaries, go down almost. oh, economic sexes are affected by any slow down in consumer spending. it hubs economic growth and could to nations into recession. central banks often aimed to raise

rates to tame inflation, but without hurting their economies. to discuss all this on join now from london by fray a. b. mush freya is the chief economist, a global data lombard. thank you so much for your time frame. i want to start with the us where and it's latest policy move. the fed decided to hold rate study. what are the signals specifically that the fed is looking for at what point will they know? they've got inflation on the control? well, if inflation comes down and stays down for a long period of time, and that will be a kind of a pretty good indicates of i think that that's unlikely. um in the, in the car in full cost. so if you, if you have to sort of take issue with some part of the, of the economic projections that they've put out, they've got fault how foster braced, and they've previously expected. they've got unemployment a little bit less than they previously expected. and only a top shot from where we are just now. and yet they've got this continuation of inflation slowing. will be it gradually in the show. tom,

i think there's enough full of for, for policy makers to kind of latch on to with regards to the trajectory of inflation to, to be confident that that's sort of doing the right thing. and to continue with this kind of pausing, i'm higher, higher for long, the rector, it but the, the, um, that they have significant peddling recently. the problem is that if you go grace economic pros continuing act or only marginally below trend, then the likelihood is that you see see, underlying inflation rate trends starting to re excel right now. i actually think that's not a story for right now, but that might be something that's nice to kind of rear its head towards it into, into the father into, into next year. for now, i think that that kind of reasonable, uncomfortable, okay, and let's, let's turn now to europe. the c, b is also a signal to pause in raising interest rates. it's a different story, isn't it? between the us and europe. can expand on that? yeah, it's very different. so are it, while the us is still living without legacy of, of kind of excessive stimulus in hindsight, with,

with the kind of the wealth that created the wealth in the european case, especially if you take into account that kind of erosion may affect over inflation . is gone, so there's no longer any cushion either in the, your area or in the u. k. and that means that the policy policy affects the gonna feed through a lot more rapidly. particularly in the case of the u. k. y the, the structure of the mortgage market is kind of conducive to um, to uh, the interest rate rises feeding through quite rapidly to uh, to the mortgage market. um, so for, for you or one could almost say that they've, they've already gone to fall. and i think what we're seeing in the inflation data coming through is evidence that the, you, you pick the european central bank and the bank of anything. we're fighting a very different type of inflation that was much more about kind of, spillover effects from us stimulus. there's much more about kind of the cost through all the, the effects of the russian invasion of, of ukraine on, on, on energy prices. and that type of inflation is the type of inflation that is,

is kind of much more likely to sort itself out than the type of inflation that the fed has been fighting to which the fed actually contributed by its kind of excessive stimulus alongside the, the excess of stimulus, fiscal stimulus in the us. okay. and briefly for this constant touring and throwing will, they wouldn't say is this constant and assess and phase never what's gonna happen next of interest rates. how does that uncertainty feed down to the amount on the street? yeah it's, it's very difficult. i mean, living in the you take what those, those perhaps the most obvious impacts of that on, on mortgage rates from the the u. k. fixes interest rates in in maine, but actually in reality, it's significant of 2. 02 years, 3 years, 5 years. so it's so much more of the impact of, of higher interest rates. and in the u. k. case the, the generations that we've seen in the, in the guilt market feeds through to um the, the person on the street. we haven't really seen much of it being types of that yet

. and the bank of england itself still thinks the, the, the, the bulk of the, the, the, the, the damage from the tightening of, of interest rates has still to fee and through. so we're still probably to see that in the, in the u. k. case and it comes to more gradually in other places. okay. for our stay with us because i want to come back to you because the 1st day i want to talk a little bit about oil prices, which on now on track to read a $100.00 a barrel. so the 1st time this, yeah, or price is of course a critical as we know to prices of goods and services because they impact not only the price of fuel, but also of course transportation and production costs. and they told the list of inflation risks at 60 percent wage growth is another one, a major contributed to inflation at 20 percent on of course, trying as the coupling from global trade has also had an impact on inflation. so back to you for what price is such a headache all night for central bank is what is your full full full costs for global oil prices and their impact on inflation?

i'm not convinced that there's a great deal of staying power in the momentum that we're seeing with with them with oil prices. remember, i think there being a kind of conjunction of faxes that have surprised and as a result of the inventories have gotten quite low. if you that the main one that's kind of on the tilt about and, and somewhat surprising is the china is the mom for oil. despite the very weak economic backdrop has been relatively, was in. and there's a lot of kind of white pro, reasons for that with regards to what they're doing them in the petrochemical sector. i'm not sure that that continues. i'm also not sure the, the kind of the, the, the, the, the, the, the push from opec further with regards to the supply side is going to be sustainable. the one that's more of a question is, is what happens to russian output? because the russian economy has been kind of surprisingly strongly that allows them to be a little bit more aggressive with what they do on production. but looking at they're going to put them on back to school. and i think oil prices do,

eventually we're about to that demand that backdrop. we're still expecting across you are a very weak out time and continuation of a slow down in, in the mon, vice, in the case of, of the us in terms of how the policy makers react to that. i think we're going to be much more back to the, the kind of the old playbook of, of you don't worth of responding to a supply side show anything in the eye of the inflation storm. people who are much more worried about those. so those uh, oil price shops feeding through into 2nd round effects. if you're an environment where inflation is coming down, the whole would be impacted as committed discipline. so might talk for the hope would be that the, the central bank is don't react to the as aggressively against that cost to push type of inflation. but is the result of, of, of oil price gains because it destroys demand by itself. and briefly freya, we one of the biggest concerns when it came to this aggressive interest rate, hiking in invite the us europe and elsewhere is recession. of course. is that still

a real pulse of benefee? uh or is it a different picture in the us of the okay. i think is different between the us and the in the u. k, the u. k. as i said, it's much more exposed to the rise of interest rates in the u. k. in the u. k position the, the debt servicing cost. as a result of the rise and interest rates is much, much less than elsewhere. about 2.5 percent of g d p in the us it's, it's much lower because of how long the fix is on, on mortgage rates. we do start to see credit called delinquencies moving up a little bit, even in the u. s. case. and that could be a little bit of a leading indicator for kind of more stress to come. and we should know also the, the, the credit impulse or the change in the change in credit which is, is correlated with g p a g p growth is actually co, incidentally, coordinates over to the p guys and has tons negative recently as a result of the slow down in um, credit grace as, as the, the, the, the hikes for winter straight speed through and looking at the 2nd round effects of

the, of the banking. many banking crisis that we saw on here in the year. so gonna see rhetoric to me. we should have continued slow down in the us, but we are in an unpleasant, unprecedented times with regards to that kind of stock of wealth being so far above trend and be sensitizing the economy to the effect. so of monetary policy, correct. right. so very much waste and see really good to talk to you for it. the most chief call most of global data at the ts law. thank you for your time. thank you. the in 2020 to the philippines and recorded its strongest economic growth in moving 40 years. rising food and rice prices are a big challenge for the president. high inflation has dented further down markets. junior's approval ratings in april, but he remains for peter and mounts his 1st year in office with improving business sentiments. out there was a some, a been debated, spoke to the secretary of finance benjamin york. know, he began by asking what is driving the nations growth basis as

a result of our investment in the previous administration? well, we were interrupted by the coffee crisis. so but, but right now we have, we have fully recovered and we are, we are on the high gross projected here again before the call, the gracies. we were growing. the philippines was driving at around 6 percent on an average scale, but we did not spend so much on, on infrastructure. so that became the, the focus of the previous administration, which we are continuing this time with a twist. we are involved being more private sector participation in, in the, in our decide to keep up with our high flying cl neighbors. so you talk about growth and obviously you growth is still very high, but looking at the last quarter. mm hm. if you look at quarter and quarter notes, if this shrunk for the 1st time and since 2011,

i believe you're still at 4.2 percent growth. so are you still confident that you know those big targets like 8 percent and more than 7.5 percent of the chief a little by the end of the year and how are invest is going to see this this year. our target is 6 to 7 percent, so we still meet the lower end of the target 6 percent. all we have to do is grow by 6.6 percent in the 2nd half of the year. but we are on your question what, why are we so still optimistic that that we can rely on 6.5 to 8 percent for the next 5 years it's, it's because there are new growth. a us minding was close in the previous administration mining unless you know, mine and allow is uh, is a fast growing sector. so we open mining. i think the resume will be back up to the fund that we can. so, and that's another sector. and as of course, the philippines is not affected too much by the global headwinds,

because our growth is basically domestic domestic driven. 3 have a population of 115 a 1000000, mostly young, age and age is 25 and they consume a lot. so the software that came with that consumption, let's talk about another sector where present bulk us has a envisage that he will achieve. so sustainability as a by 5, but the next 5 years is agriculture. that's. that's right. but you do see that, you know, the current price is a for ice, for instance, where you have to take corrective measures, the shortages that you've seen for, i mean triggered etc. how, where is this heading to woods and what steps do you think in the next 5 years? you're going to be taking to make sure that this doesn't happen? that's, that's a good point. how? how do we call ch are in the previous a new station? was practically not a factor in growth. it was in and out the procession 0 growth. and so the focus on

that because it is very timely. and so the president himself has assumed the, the secretary she form of the culture because he's, he feels that that's really very important. so that's another growth sector. now this sharp increase in rice is a combination of non competitive behavior of some bad players in the, in the market. and also because globally, the price of fertilizer has come out and the price of food in general has gone up as a result of the russian invasion of great. so some analysts believe that the if good targets continue to be met, philippines is going to be a trillion dollar economy in the next decade or so. are you sure that you're going to be able to achieve it? and if you were to list 4 or 5 areas which are going to help prepare the philippines to that, what would they be? and are they actually realistic?

howard, our part of our plan is to, to make the feed into an upper middle income country by the end of the study. it's hard to talk about what happened software system, and that's, you know, depress that, that's a fix. don't fix, got 6 years. he's got to do everything he has to do within that period. so we'll, we'll keep investing in then essential infrastructure, take care of our people and make sure that they are, they, they will, the malware, young population gets the night to education, to healthcare, make them productive workforce. and that's all we can do. okay. we can have problems beyond 19 of 2020, 22. believe you now where agriculture has become one of the fastest growing sectors as it's once thriving, natural gas industry is on the decline. economist save countries. tar lands have a stablish farming is a major drive as far as future economic growth. vince and monahan has more

cattle ranching is booming and central bolivia. it's part of the major ship to agriculture. the many hope will save the economy because i'd be able to some of my every year we are exporting more and more livestock products like me to know. it has grown foss pulled over the last 15 years. and that is because we have been well positioned to do sort of the new emphasis on farming is going avoid left by the decline of natural gas hydrocarbon exports fuel olivia's economic miracle at the turn of the century. then present, even morales use it for social spending, lifted millions out of poverty, but with production now plummeting, alternatives are needed. and then in the past, libya was a net energy ex, border gas was its main export product. nowadays, the entire sector is in decline. and we are increasingly importing diesel and gasoline. but the farming boom may come at a cost, as far as in bolivia are being uprooted,

faster than nearly anywhere else in the world. nearly 4000 square kilometers in 2022 alone. much of it to make room for ranches and sweeping farms last month, south american nations failed to agree on a common policy on ending deforestation by 2030 livia is believed to be one of the holdouts. the amazon rain forest plays a vital role in storing carbon, generating rain, full and combat thing. the effects of climate change deliveries, agricultural exports are finding hungry markets in china, and the u. it's relieving worries about the economy and the post pandemic era. even if at the same time, it creates new concerns on how to manage the environmental pull out, been demanded for accounting, we cost conventional wisdom says rewarding employees for that performance increases that motivation and their commitment to the jobs and companies of often use promotions as a tool to retain x and fullness. but if you think that would necessarily prevent

work is from resigning. thank you again. a new study shows that recognition could actually back fire adp with such and such. you found 29 percent of workers quit the jobs within a month after that 1st promotion the payroll provided estimates only 18 percent of employees would have left have a know been promoted. but then i realize job histories of more than 1200000 american work is between 20192022. that is during the global credit of ours pandemic to from preston in the united kingdom on join. now by adrian writes, adrian is the direct to the institute for such into organizations what unemployment at the university of central blankenship. thank you so much for your time, adrian. we surprised by these findings will contrive where, cuz to resign a months off to getting a promotion. well firstly, i'd say that these findings were usually surprising. we most know that it's a small section to provide them up here today. 12.5 percent of the way for them

included within these findings. putting same save. what's driving work is to to lead about the promotion. is many different boxes, 1st of all. and it may simply, it can be a case of promotion coming to solve it. see right there where people list those about their options and decided to lead alongside things like links and social media, laptop options and job to receive the coming up all the time. if people are engaged in the platform, it really does have an opportunity to see them, certainly or below, impulsively impossible, impulsively for organizations to reflect. so, and it's how different fans, supposing individuals, as they approach promotion and get promotion. say for example, is that a good training? is that adequate pay at all work is feeling supported and, and these sorts of things may prompt people to lead balances up, if it securely and publish it for that and that personal circumstances do you think

this also applies to just a certain type of work, a certain level of a hierarchy they may be within the organization as well. does. is it, is this across the board? well, i think there's 2 ways announcement not question. i think there's a big and information from organizations like mackenzie saying, repeat what, i'm ok. so look for different types of work and i think around faulty design and develop nations 1st set of the workforce. ok, there are options in equifax move if necessary, but it will save you right. looking at the organizations and the nice for the industries inside those boxes of the report findings to found that light pace with flows. there's a low paid industries and more prominent in terms of people moving on. and there's the social high skills to choose information technology. nice those things. so if, if the organization doesn't matter, but again, it was saying that our organizations supporting people with promotions didn't

provide adequate skills and training to provide that quote type. and it's hobby, surprising with low paid organizations, perhaps not getting not quite right. right. so promotion on its own, it's just not good enough. absolutely. yeah. think we have to look at sites. so that was this, the organizations have in place. so for example, and while the other benefits organizations put in place alongside promotion, as all science privacy isn't the best thing for people often promoters, it's the competency in the current job and not necessarily competency and the promotion in states of physics medicine and is leaving and so was, and diesel leads the concepts and saves the satisfaction of the websites and also it's not good for the organization. so, and organizations need to think about how jobs strategy, how long is your business strategy? and so make sure that people, when the optimize it assess, will dispose of it in that role. or you can just stay with me for a moment because i want to tell the audience a little bit about what's happening with wages. a 36 percent pay rise was among the

main demand spot, auto workers who went on strike in the united states last week. unions of also cold for a 32 hour work week with no pay cuts and coals for sure. so working hours, a part of the shift in workplace trends off to the global pandemic. many countries have conducted that full day work week trials last year, the biggest was in the united kingdom. let's go back to adrian now. so how much do working hours play into overall job satisfaction or working hours? so basically play significant. i mean there's real job satisfaction. we get, we kind of have to look at the real thoughts of and the process of what makes good quality jobs are things like pain benefits constructs work, life balance is 1000000, posting, job design and the nature of way, but also things like employee, voice and health and wellbeing and but work life balance and the,

and the time that people spending way is updates the key. usually impulse. and i'm always saying hey, would be introduction of different technologies. and those sorts of things is it is a call that people set to bring casually about how much the way to try and get the best of what life balance and effects the deal for employees, which is with nice and things like that for the day we can be a win win space organizations on the employees we saw or of course, with the pin that make as the power return to the worker. is that still the case now? all a couple of years down the line? well, i think, and one of the things is really important isn't about labels ability. and i think that and individuals do i still have opportunities. we do have quite a strong labor market scale, which means organizations have to be back to that attracts and talents and making sure the rates have not solid. and also making sure things are in place within the organization. and that can be conventional the individuals that happy in the

workforce in terms of sizing the power back. i think that there's always this in this, this situation between whether organizations have more power over the way or whether where it has more power. but i think the time that we do see a shift, and that shift is continuing, particularly when it comes to strong lead markets and people have a lot choice and opportunity. adrian writes direct to the institute for such into organizations. was that from the university central link to sure, thank you. thank you. and that is all sorry for this week. get in touch with us on x full, nay, known as switched out at my name's side to use the hash tag a j. c cc. when you do course, you can just sit e mail counseling. acosta out is there at dot net is addressed as multi online or out is there a dot com slash teaching student that will takes you straight to a page which has individual reports, links and taught episodes. the to catch up on that is that for this edition of counting a cost,

i'm molly insight from the whole team. thanks for joining us. nice on out as they're coming up next the the, [000:00:00;00]

the from intimate moments to majors, social change, the witness award winning phones from around an hour to 0. the record number of migrants across from mexico into the us. we report on the dangers of their journey. i'm here on the mexican u. s. border where my friends have just crossed the rio grande river and are now in dire conditions as they traverse the barbed wire and take their 1st steps on us soil. the