as of cases have been reported in conflict zones, the unit says that those do not reflect the real number with detail coverage. you may wonder how all of these people don't get lost in the jungles. and the reason that they don't is that they're told to follow these markers from around the world . if i go quiet, you'd be able to hear nothing. there is absolutely no one who's left him. a brazen attack at a reminder that the violence in syria is far from over. the government blames armed groups for the attack on a military academy in the homes. so as the shot, i said, really won the war as he says. and what role or foreign parties playing in syria? this is inside, so the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm how much enjoyed the syrian government has declared 3 days of morning after an attack on a military academy in the western city of funds. it blames armed groups, backed by international parties for the drone strike that targeted a graduation ceremony. immediately after the attack, the military bombed opposition held it live in northern syria. president bush auto said says his country is no longer at war, but with a tax like these who's calling the shots in syria, and after 12 years of conflict with the country ever see lasting peace. we'll be discussing this with our guests. but 1st, this report by sarah guilt, a warning the viewers may find the image is disturbing. a brother montez siblings who was on the verge of graduating from the military academy and homes. what was meant to be a day of celebration in syria, quickly tons of tragedy. when a drunk targeted the ceremony,

it's the worst day. a huge tragedy children's students and my friends, they all died. the man has to be. we attended the ceremony till the end, and then we went to greet our relatives. then there was a massive sound, and i woke up here. defense minister alia bass was among the guests in attendance. he left just a few moments before the attack. and may god grant them solace and blessings. nathan marches, souls raced in peace that the government has blamed what it describes is terrorist organizations supported by known international policies and permits to respond with full epa bought at the move in a clip region which is controlled by the position on wednesday state television had quoted a russian military commander in syria, a warning of possible attacks. i said, i'm not able to use somebody because almost according to the deputy head of the russian to send us a reconciliation for in parties. but i didn't pull it. terrorist apply need to carry out series of attacks on the notations of the russian military on the syrian

government supported the conflict and syria began 12 years ago with a peaceful protest against the president, which escalated into full scale civil who was sure l. a side controls most of the country with the backing of russian underwriting forces. it's come at a great cost. hundreds of thousands of people have been killed and millions, display, and tossed. cities have been destroyed. from the government's perspective, the will may be old besides the, however, the attack in homes shows the syrian people are still suffering. sorry, go the inside story. the. all right, let's go ahead and bring in our guest from moscow. alexei clement called a middle east specialist at the russian international affairs council in ankara is when there was cuz they'll take a foreign policy and security analyst who focuses on syria and from norman, oklahoma. we have joshua landis, director of the center for middle east studies at the university of oklahoma and

editor of the syria comment blog. a warm welcome to you all, and thanks so much for joining us today on inside story. joshua, let me start with you today. was this the most coordinated use of drones when it comes to an attack in syria against the government that we've seen, and from your vantage point, who might be behind this attack? well, there was there a number of groups that could be behind it, but this is definitely what we're seeing today is a major up scaling of the technology being used by the opposition. now the opposition has been using drones since 2018 um russia said of the head shot down or captured over 200 drawings and in 2020. so this has been a constant effort on the part of the opposition groups in england to carry out effective drawn strikes. this by far is the most um, you know, is the most damaging strike to the syrian for shipment is going to cause

a big change in the way the word is carried out. and as we're seeing already, the syrian government is retaliating with, with tons of force in order to try to stop this. who could carry it out? there are a number of groups that are splinter groups from al qaeda in good lab region. and the syrian of government and those groups have been battling each other for weeks. only 2 weeks ago about 20 soldiers were killed in hama province by an incursion from from had lived the regina pounded back just yesterday or 2 days ago . the government said that it had killed 20 um 20 soldiers from one of the militias. and, and this is, this has been going on this 10 for 10 or so this is an escalation, but it's a very big escalation. yeah, josh, well that's, that's what i was gonna ask you about next because it was reported that serious defense minister had attended the graduation ceremony at this military academy in

the homes. but that he left minutes before the attack. this is a major security breach, right. i mean, how big of a blow is this to the syrian regime? it's a very big blow and is, and it reminds everybody in syria, anybody with a memory. it reminds people of the 1979 attack on the a level cadets in which 89 or 83 a level could that's all our lights were killed by the most and brotherhood and 1979. and this launched a very serious escalation that led to the home of massacre, where, where between 10 and 20000 people were killed in the town city of hama. and there was a devastating escalation for syria and mark the next 20 years. or in many ways a civil war was a reprise of this fight. so this is a, is a wake up call for the machine. and it's, it's going to get, it couldn't drive the regime to open negotiations again with turkey to try to

figure out a solution to live as their, as their ability to hurt the retain escalades. or it just may lead to more and more fighting and emerging doubling down on reprisals. omar, i think i saw you reacting to what the joshua was saying there. i wanted to get your perspective on. if you think that an attack, this significant could, could change a dynamic and syria could it actually essentially push the syrian government into trying to open negotiations with their kid. so when it comes to that tech, it says i can agree with judge what that, that spots likely opposition groups. but there's also the less likely option that it could also be you, i'm in uh, is the pulse black a tech, as we know, do you, i'm in the and probably a drawing based quite new the include conduct as a tech, but i would love the team to store and i take the most at least a tact, so pricing to a tech one who may mean at base some years ago. but it's much more that can i really hesitant to make a comparison with the most and brotherhoods. and in the past,

the end to beginning of to cut that's and i level, i think this has something much different. and this shows that there is a security unique insight to us that we gene. and that must cause hasn't is secrete, that pop this under control. they are spending ted agents, they can produce your new position. and even like you to read because groups and it left. so what this here waiting is that right to join that tech, it's safe to take the media to say when you and most the military. if he goes where i kept in this during a tech to response by the fact was gene and by direction ad falls was to. busy bump in it live and the targets went up on the military targets and several of the city and state and these targets. and we have seen that there was a small but important migration movement. busy with the beginning in the area which is cried to something to oh, yeah, about for to k who doesn't bump any new migration wave at that's part of this. so i death for i think this is significant,

but i also do not think that this would change the balance of power in syria, as we know in 2020 took, established a balance of power a need. so pollution, spring shift and prevent that. there may need to be solution and see and preventative. kidding. of those thousands of students at the must migration of more than 2000000 simians from left to us to get into. so about 2, what suggestions suggesting a possibly negotiations to, to care? i'm quite to talk about that. i do not think that the subdivision, when you open to negotiate with 2 cabinets in c rates. we have seen that the circulation feeds and powered by the policy of not making any concessions and the rate and for the out is to change their position, the owner, i guess one of the big questions is why carry out an attack like this now and, and what message ultimately is being sent by this drone attack? so the timing of this at tech i do think was decided by the a tech of the timing of this was fix you decide to buy the even threaten us and buy

the ones who did not prevent the security leak from the side of the fact we've seen doesn't opportunity and this opportunity was used. i do i you think it would be for the for the position for us and it live at expression. do i to cut gloves to not use such a secure it to nick? this is a i'm, i'm new but, but i do think and i can on the line here that this is a take it, it says with most likely not have the major web who i'm if occasions other than with her nation and tex of the factory. she meant the russian half was to watch the video and mindy to target significant alexi. i want to ask you to follow up a bit on what the amount was saying that when it comes to the retaliatory aspect of what comes next. you know, the syrian government is blaine, but it describes as terrorist organizations supported by known international parties, or they promised to respond by force. it's been barred at the northern italy region, which is controlled by the opposition. what will the ramifications of this drone

attack be? what kind of a retaliation are we going to see going forward to we've already uh, heard reports from the ser, in defense finish out of the showings and the 2 rounds. and, and i think during today uh, during the day of russian air force is also um, attack several targets in or they have a valley so. so that's kind of a traditional response. if you go back in a 1018 night and to that state, meet the quite traditional way to response extra texts. and plus the joint attacks as jo share, right. they've mentioned they've been carried out for quite some time for several years. and a lot of them were targeting a rushing everybody's maybe, but the scale of this attack is. ringback a so large scale that on the one hand, it demonstrates the increased capacity of the military

groups of radicals and enable it to targets and government forces including, you know, even even russian courses. but on the other hand, it's kind of change uh, strategic kind of status quote uh in, in the, in the area. um. so the ramifications the retaliation from the russian side of the suicide also kind of go out of proportion and cannot hold a moment to break the status for. because if we see an escalation and not the limited but a large scale offensive on that and see we're in and russian side towards elliptical require inevitably coordination or some or what it will literally to resend an escalation with turkey. so, and for the time being, i don't see that's a, that's a, a willing approach from all parties because regardless of, uh,

whoever thinks you know, with what is going on between the masters and, and kinda the dialogue and negotiations are ongoing. the process of normalization is under way. yes, it's not an easy one. it's very complicated on both sides of very tough negotiators and best and use the best sense to start from a ton. but the to 12. it's very hard to imagine. no, it's going to be a quick road alexi. i'm sorry, i'm sorry to interrupt you but, but it's just, i see it on there once to respond to something you're saying, yeah, i just wanna give you a chance to listen to the end here. go ahead on there. yeah, let me check the date and say that i think this shows and the extension for my next also shows. and i agree with them that the conflict and see it isn't cool what it is. just that we have a balance of power washer and that was you and you are bumped to take new me to actions. took is preventing them took a one student taking to action semester and us cooperating,

and preventing to get so right. you have a balance of power in syria, which is preventing for the actions. and this balance of power has to ensure that whether to call them but the don't take it says shows that all of the reasons which led to the syrian conflict and which multiply to put tiny talk to soon config us the present and death not being was all alright, mer, um i'm gonna jump back to alexi now. uh alexi. um i'm gonna let you finish the point you were making, but i also want to ask you about the fact you mentioned russian forces in your previous answer, of course, but not of us. it has drawn heavily on military backing from russia in the past. russia has helped in efforts to strengthen the syrian military. what is russia willing to do at this stage when it comes to continuing to back the syrian regime? well, i don't think the, the fundamental rational has changed since 2015. so as you know, russia has secure to military base is one i mean,

in the error base and one purpose uh, for one purpose and enabled one. so that's, that means rashid's the to stay for at least uh, you know, the, the agreement plus sign for $4090.00. yes. so the rest of course will stay there. also, we should also exaggerate, or, you know, overestimate the rest of those repressed and switch mainly, uh, around the air forces and russian to go through police and special forces and, and the navy, a force. and that's never went over then $546000.00 personnel including everyone on the military. so the russians could hold and see we have no terribly is there to stay and they don't see that expanding or shrinking. so it's kind of being on it on um, a balanced kind of the ways um,

as for the future, again, it's also a russian never aimed at, you know, growing it's military capacity inside of the country because from the very beginning, back in 2015 but in russian decided to step in the whether it's uh, air force is that was kind of a labor division we did on. we were provided all the ground forces on the ground. and pressure provided a cover from this type. and that's what's uh, kind of played out into the hands of damascus about how the, the syrian government to uh, to preserve what it had and rudy control over the majority of the comes to now the control about 6065 percent. but for the time being then asked for the russian military plans, but i don't see any kind of strategic or even technical change in, in grow we owe increase or decrease in capacities. all right, josh, why say you want to jump in, please go ahead. you know, both,

both all matter and alexi. i've talked about the balance of power being fairly stable in syria. but if you can, but i would, i would underline that. and we've seen in every sector of syria, what is the turkish dominated sector, american or russian and government sector? there has been great instability in the last few weeks. we're watching right now as turkey takes revenge for the, for the pay, take care tax and, and career the other day and as has killed the $20.00 to $30.00 people in the, in the northeast, syria destroyed a lot of infrastructure. americans shot down a turkish drone and we've seen fighting, also in north north a level between various groups who are dropping for power. and we've seen demonstrations in the general drew's an instability of syria. i think in some ways the poverty, the growing economic despair of syrians in every sector. it is causing great instability. and this kind of violence that we're seeing the uptake and violence,

whether it's between courage and error, tribes in the north east or the drew's people are despairing in syria. there, there is not a good answer to syria and between the sanctions, corruption and this constant warfare. i think that we're going to see um, we're going to see more instability. this is not a stable situation in syria. i mean, josh, when you're talking about the instability, you know, present the shot of us that says that his country is no longer at war. but everything you mentioned, and the brazen attack like the one that happened on the military academy in the homes, i'm just not all belie that statement. yes, i mean we've got a, you know, a sense the major fighting is over. the opposition is no longer a tenable, it's not going to march to damascus and over throw outside, but it's extremely unstable and, and between sanctions and economic collapse in that region, we're going to see a lot more instability. and that's, i think,

why our governments have pushed to normalize with syria in a desperate attempt to try to kick start the economy. but of course, america and others in europe don't want that normalization. they said no, we're not gonna lift the sanctions. the effort to go to china by the shars, the in a sense that because our problem being compressed and helping the apps that not stopped because of i made compression based st. appointments like detox with that subdivision. so my, let's, let's just let joshua stephen restriction. let's just let joshua finish the most. i'll come to you if your response go ahead. joshua. right? no, it gets quite clear that you know, the error of the error governments normalized with syria because they, they understand that outside is not leaving. but they, they also worry that the situation is getting worse. there's going to be more refugees, there's gonna be more progress. there's going to be more in stability. and it just that a time when eric governments in the golf and other places are trying to write a new future for the world and trying to, to, to say, we're the future. we're growing economically. we're going to bring stability. and

we're going to play a big role on the world stage, but this, this under costs that entire messing over. i know you want to jump and go ahead. yes, look and say, 1st of all the normalization is not installed. the as a new we progress the and this is not due to any kind of american pressure. we know that the american, the us, they are false, us like, but the good, the nation security concept adviser for me, lisa, and not to and not a met with africa, who actually, and pres, support that and create jobs. states told us that reaching the waves and by the up states stopped installed to nigga in english patients. a normalization process with that subdivision is because of the i such as seems it, i'm winning this and in non capacity to provide it for the months. the sideways human has not me taking any steps in towards upstate it to us. so if i run a route and upstate uh that pets up,

they don't want to go if they don't see any content. so action problems outside the resume and they don't see any steps taken by the outside. we've seen. and he, i think the upsets, did not talk to the subdivision because they wanted to make the keys in syria and they want to increase the life you talk to simians know, they talked with us, i presume specific d. because i said to assume create to problems for the i up states and i've states fault that they can resolve these problems by talking with us. that was the name, the here, the cap, they're going to activate. the subdivision has become the most because direct produced in the region and it's ex putting deluxe en masse to the we are just out a bit to draw them to say, shoot, security to problem. and then we also have to use of the season. if you genius by the subdivision to try to change popular opinion in the states and it's worked about this idea, an idea of the subdivision that as long as it doesn't check,

make concessions. it creates problems for our best that they have to speak with the separation that a he can make. gains is also received for a continuous crisis and syria, the crisis and see can only. and if we see a pretty good transition and took here in 2020, blocked away 4 minutes a solution. but since then we haven't seen any we progress towards that police consideration in syria. and i'm not hopefully be able to see any time soon. alexi, i saw you reacting to some of what joshua was saying and so i'm what omar was saying and it looked like you wanted to jump in, so please go ahead. um, so of the error, i mean the normalization between 0 and there of space. um you see it's kind of uh, we need to try to walk into, you know, issues of damascus and the from, from their perspective. uh, you know, technically we get nothing. this normalization. it doesn't give you any contracts. it doesn't give you any money. what's that? but it's just like an aside,

like an image rate. we so why she didn't get anything back for its, you know, as far as i remember, the correct me if i'm wrong, there was a or the 2 years ago the project of a resumption of air and guess pipeline which was discussed in the america, gave a green light, but they never actually started remember, got a functional, you know, to it, to, to deliver gas and electricity from, from egypt, savannah, georgia and then see richard living on. so that was kind of a test for the do with, you know, the, you know, station negotiated to see whether americans can make some sections. but then that's not a, it's not a to work. plus, uh, the united states. they didn't extend the sections wait here, which was related to the uh, the escalated to the february of squeak. so of course uh from damascus point of view, it needs to see, i mean, it wants to see if it wishes to see some sections relief or even. uh and of course

it might look from, you know, from outside that asset theres uh, with the mask which supports the the truck uh producing and truck spray. but uh, of course, i mean look at the reasons. i mean, the guys guys are lucky enough money to don't have funds. they don't have to have problems with energy, with fuel, with everything. and i mean, so many examples in the history when uh, you know, some, uh, actors, lack of money. drugs uh, quite convenient to, to try it with places, pick some problems with uh, with that. so we need to probably be more pragmatic in that sense and be honest with the lexi. uh, evaluate it at least the this like say i'm sorry to interrupt you. it's just that we are starting to run out of time, and i want to, i want to go to joshua joshua, you know, we've talked about a lot of the different dimensions of the conflict in syria. but i want to talk about the humanitarian needs of syrians. at this stage, you have millions of people who are internally displaced. there are millions of

syrian refugees and asylum seekers who have fled syria. how bad is the situation currently and from your vantage point, is the international community doing enough to help you the international community is not doing enough to help in the searing situation is, is very desperate, and that's why we're seeing, i think so many so many disturbances around the country and, and it's going to get worse. the syrian people are really the ponds and traps in this larger conflict that we're hearing about right now. but there's clash between russia and the united states between the ron, sadie ravia and, and between various sex within syria. it is, it's going nowhere, it's going down and they cannot mcclay more and more the syrians are leaving. we've seen them continuing to go over the border into, into 11 on and jordan, and instead of reversing and syria rebuilding all the powers in

a sense are conspiring to keep syria in ruins. and to be in. it's not clear that they're going to change the political dynamic inside syria. so we've got it frozen situation, which is leading, which is just destroying the syrian people and, and just kind of ins. joshua, i'm sorry, i'm sorry to interrupt. we, we literally have about a minute and a half left. i just wanna also ask you um, after 12 years of conflict is syria ever going to see any kind of lasting peace? well, i think it will build in that direction because it is worth seeing more and more regional powers are beginning to realize that this effort to overthrow the syrian government failed. you know, turkey savvy ravia, united states all tried to overthrow the outset regime. and many of them backed away from it at the last moment in 2015 when they caught of over thrown it. but they got spooked by the evolution of the syrian opposition. and so much more

radical groups like ice as an outside up. and, and today we've got this frozen situation where, where, where, it, it's, it's getting worse all the time. all right, well, we have run out of time. so we're going to have to leave the conversation there. thanks so much to all our guest, alexis, let me call on there was kids of chick and joshua landis, and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website. i'll just share a. com and prefer the discussion go to our facebook page, that's facebook dot com, forward slash age and side story. you can also join the conversation on x r handle is at a j inside story for me and how much im jerome and a whole team here. bye for now, the the

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