also use that warm sunshine stretching there across they'll say some parts of africa. some went to weather loading at the morocco, moving throughout the area. a slightly filtering out the, the latest news as if you've got to wait gone. and the northern gauze district to the south, to the board, mit in the cell have still been ongoing with detailed coverage, constantly being fired from gauze of been intercepted by the iron don't from around the world of the palestinians. the street has been at least 2 is rather preparing to carry out the ground defensive in garza. but there are concerns about what will happen to those cap shipped by him as with 5 minutes to benjamin netanyahu facing growing public kind of will these right e mail actually go in regardless of the risk,

this is inside stored the hello again on james, based on the on boardman mold in 2 weeks. the gaza strip is bracing for an old out is really ground defensive. he's very, the military leadership has declared his operation will be like, know, all the promising victory over her mice. but others fear the lives of those cap should by the post. and you know, i'm group are in jeopardy. the us is reported with most israel to the lights, attacked in the hope of securing the release of captives held by home. us will go to our guest on our panel in a moment, but 1st this report, by on a coast, i'm sure we've as well as leaders. so they will watch how most of the face of the, of these us some of the forces they intend to use. the full disclosure people take

one month, 2 months, 3 months of energy and they'll be normal. how much for full, how much context of tanks and our inventory. they will know as a shells from our efforts to, to, to hundreds of thousands of his by lever service have been called up to join a plan. ground defensive on garza and the us is expanding its ministry presence in the middle east in support of this one. the only conductive ground defenses in golf . so again, symbols in 20142019 back, then it's english to punish and diminished that i'm true. but now the army wants to go further. i'm not able to turn this equation a 180 degrees. the day of the attack will be remembered as the day that started the final incompletes destruction of the hum us terrorist organization. wally is rarely all the steps up. it's preparations and bombardment disc also faces challenges at home. the families of 222 captors being held by him. us

since that that, that southern is one nearly 3 weeks ago. i'm calling for the release. where are you heading back now to medical hostages. have been freed, under mediation by cup of the army, says is conducting rates to find out with other captives being held inside garza, the model allow these area rates are inside garza, i'm a close contact to research locations and seek information on the missing on hostages. ahead of the ground invasion more than the median palestinians have been forwarded to move south from the north of the golf house trip. these really ami is born in those don't will be constant tetra supporters to

the smaller humanitarian crisis unfolding in gaza. many a concern, a major battle between as well. so me and i'm us forces control and countries in the region and even global powers and the consumption of these phones. that story. well that spring, you know, a panel of guess to discuss all of this in london, you'll see medical bug associate fellow in the middle east and north africa program at chatham house in birmingham. scott lucas, profess the tents and institute at university college. dublin is also the founder and editor of a, a will view, a news analysis site, and also in london is works on the farm on for money on profess of molten middle east politics at the university of cambridge hello to you. oh, thank you very much for joining us. oh, so let's talk about the possibility that israel is under pressure to delay its

ground defensive. starting with you. you'll see i'm from what we hear. no problem with discussing all of this military plans a secret, but from what we hear in the reports, we hear israel is already delayed the several times. the good in the way is, is we for the see or was it might be actually a good news that those are the day in the ready to actually because you know exactly what the consequences all think. we know the consequences of such. ready go, we'll send students, it's bound to cost many, many lice. and i think that all they send it, lisa, so they're a lives on their deserves se eliza vase and to mobilize right now there was a 100000 mobilized. it's mean they need to be things they need to be a quick, they need to be ready. we were for the last to do with the nation, sir. and be so excited especially that also the tensions and mold intentions seem

to know. then go to the those international community that the rest of these mounting because we see the level of casualties on the, on their, on the side menu of all civilians. and how it's going to affect the vision. always going to fix on the simulation. and it's not so good. so we think that least the 220 to a hostages only to us to just have been really said that stuff and b as one is white. there is a role in there on defensive stops the source that just might be using the human she's actually caught in the will. and there's a result to face. we don't know what's going to be the face of a lot of places and actually the think what is that for me to kind of name or section of it. if at the beginning the, these are the government talks about the national altogether from us. this is actually, as i've done already, so we filed the shooting thousands and thousands of innocent civilians, all the needs to be much more limited the plan. so there's, you know, rocks um,

um we, when we sold a present bite and go for a very brief visit just to israel last week. yes. everyone focused on how supportive he was of these ready people in these, right, the government. but he did say in that speech, do not rush to war and avoid the mistakes that the us made in 911. 0 yes, i think it was clear that he was off. so certainly in the behind the scenes as well . one would imagine presenting an alternative view that although he was supporting israel's right to protect itself, he was clearly putting brakes on exactly how israel would go about that. saying that there would be implications if it approached it in the wrong way. and i think we're seeing the response across the many capitals in the world, including the error world, that there is an alternative perspective on best that it is against international

law. of course a to forcibly moved people and to attack a whole community as a, as going on and gaza. and so i think there is definitely a degree of caution that the is really sort of having to build into their plans simply to avoid being further isolated as the end of this. and i think the initial program that they set out was very much simply looking at retaliation. and now they're having to look at the end game scots. we hear from reports that is actually the main conduit. persuading israel to slow down is the daily meeting between the us defense secretary lloyd austin and his office number these right, the defense minister you'll have go on to seems to be the most whole case of those in the military leadership and the reports. the 2nd,

the reasons that you'll see is already mentioned. some of these are those that are being held by how mass they need to get more 8 into gaza to protect us interests and the regions of those sound. like the reasons why the us would be urging caution at the moment to you. i think the wine, which has been late to the media on by american it has rarely officials that it's primarily because of those 222 hostages. about 50 of whom are for nationals. i think that's actually just simply a convenient pretext for what has been the line, not just of the your wealth, but of much of the international community. very since, very soon after from office mass murder of israel, they shall go into 4 nations. and that is, there's a 2 phone message here, and i think it's important emphasizes the 1st part of the message, not just from us, but from european leaders from leaders or other parts, including asia and also latin america has been what about crossed a line of acceptability when it carried out those mass murders,

it can no longer be treated as, as legitimate leadership and also to provide stability and security. but at least for the 2nd part of the message, which has been the one which has been given repeatedly and not just by jo body, nasa lincoln, which is a drops and was pointing out, how do you get rid of how much? how do you achieve this and, you know, if we're moving this leadership, that's korea committed crimes against humanity, without alienating and date, of course, turning out mass killing under all of jobs and civilians. so i do think that the emphasis was for israel, of to not carry out a ground, a sense of and i think is where it was on the verge. that ground a sense of last week. i think it's also for israel to limit the bombing, which is showing no signs of doing so far. so there's less of a success here. but that brings us to that point you raised, which i think is now that she gets it. we're both symbolic and political point, and that is getting humanitarian a in to gossip. the argument of much of the international community is you have got

to get some space between gaza civilians and how much you've got to get civilians away from. the idea that her boss is there only protect her, you have got to give them an alternative. and for that, you need not just a couple dozen and a few 1000 a trucks go in, you need hundreds and thousands of trucks to be going out and going and very soon i . so you'll see, i'll come back to the aid in a moment. but on the issue of those being held by him us, we have 2 americans that were released. but actually it's interesting, if you look carefully, the estimated numbers being held have actually gone up. the originally were about a 150, then the estimate few days ago was, was 200. i believe it's now more than $212.00. now that of course, greatly limits doesn't it be any possibility of a, of a rescue operation given that these people are property all held in different places on the heavy god and some of them probably in

a maze of underground tunnels. here we're talking down to 20 to some of these, it's a total dollar family member as that. so i have hostage and this complicates everything so so explain stop to this thing. yeah, those are not all the soldiers that we're not talking here about the business phone with the computers being kidnapped. actually video, some very, very young age babies, children all the way to 8485 you lot. and it's almost impossible to as a conservative organization to. ready sort of, it's not, it's not realistic to the by not only the says, and they're obviously considering the way how much the, the sauce and the cost that these are committed to expect a lot to use it to human shape would be on the risk of things so the best way forward is actually slow, quite negotiation behind the scenes as a because all of the show that they are capable of working some visual at least

negotiate and the release of to and we need to see what happens next. but yeah, this is this, the sort of the beginning complicates, i mean, yeah. or for, for military organization because it's, it's put them on the other immediately to scott, to as we would say. but release judith, natalie rondon, an american, his randy, mother and daughter from illinois. the fact that homos released and when they did how, how, how does that complicate things? do you think for these, right, the government and the push towards the ground defensive and i'm actually adding to that. why do you think i know is pure speculation? because we don't know the reasons they did decide to choose to help the americans when there are so many elderly young and then from people among those being held. i think the indications are, as this was a public relations move. uh, it was a public relations move, 1st of all to try to deter and his really ground evasion by holding out the idea

that the hostages were there. and then if you carry out these piecemeal releases, you keep on pushing the invasion back. in other words, as you also, you just pointed out, you know, these hostages are human shields. let's call it for what it is. secondly, why was it the americans? because of the americans are perceived by many to being the key factor in terms of their influence on these really leadership. that although there are many others you've been going in to israel in the past 12 days, the germans, are they going out with a lot? schultz and i don't know like a barrel book. the british have gone to the greek prime ministers there today is still the idea that washington is the biggest lever on israel. so you play to american public opinion, the american public opinion, which is felt a great deal of anger over the mass, killing of not only is rarely so got you, but at least $31.00 americans. you play the americans with a lot, you know, really good god as you were willing to release hostages. and by the way,

if you had tacos, it'd be a shame that those off just wound up getting killed and rocks on how much also, i'm a spokesman said that they had the intention of releasing 2 more people whom they named to is really citizens apartments in espanol whose office said this was mendacious propaganda. but this cool was his big problems. does it not within his rally israel's leadership as well? well, i think what we're seeing is that how much is playing its cards very carefully. and i, i, you know, agreed that 1st to americans, ventu is rarely is, this is all got an agenda to of, to appeal, to not only public opinion, but also to show that there is total control over these hostages at the moment. and i think the americans were hoping that there would be quite a few palestinian americans that would be left out across the roof of border which is where the a trucks are coming in. and that there might be a somewhat of an exchange there. and that has not happened. so it shows that the

release of the hostages still is very much up to how much that feels as it's showing, it's not complete control over the situation. and i think it's also showing that the israeli army does not, because their intelligence has shifted consistently as to how many of the, how many hostages they are there are, we don't know if they have any idea of where the hostages are. and i think that's possibly very much affecting their decision to go in because an urban guerrilla man to man and fight in in gaza could really be very risky to know what the lives of hostages that are there. and i think there has been quite a bit of talk about negotiations. would certainly be a better way, would be a better guarantee to keep the hostages alive rather than a ground operation. and that,

that certainly would put their lives much greater risk. so i think it's an interesting chess game that we're seeing here. you'll see in terms of those 2 that were released, the american is ready, mother and daughter. we haven't seen them since they've been released. i would assume and tell me if you think i'm right, is that they are being checked over by doctors, by psychologist. now the important part for these readings and the americans, that being de brief for intelligence, they'll probably like about. so it will say, hey, we have to remember that so to civilians that went to the s 4 full full mold in 2 weeks. and yes, so for to ensure that the well being comes says, i guess you could fail those, you know, whether the americans all these or would like to go as much as possible out of there. but again, i, i don't use, they, they know too much, they've okay. well enough to, to have the intelligence community and down so well that was it just, you know,

the time that the last 2 weeks with this for we had say from us and just let me just put the us, did you have so many different faces because the weight isn't as a or sensor value waiting right now. so these are the phone says to enter and then fi to the door to door in the in the elven areas. the time is the phone stops and, and the rest of where their lives. there is information that 2 hostages released can, has they think that it is community? i'm not so sure about it of scots, in addition to us citizens. they are all citizens of the u. k. from germany, netherlands, pylon, argentina, germany from i said, germany twice, sorry. should i, spain and portugal on the list. now these include some of the us and israel, closest allies. how much pressure do you think is coming on the is riley's from

these governments? those governments will again be part of again, what is a collective effort, not just simply us effort, not just to emphasize that the lives of these hostages are at risk if there's any type of ground operation. but i think to put across the water message, which is like, even if, even if it is right on the ground, defensive is put off for a week, 2 weeks. another month, quite likely, that is roby trying out the or operations, the sustain bombing. and i think the message there is, again to this really leadership quality, you know, can you really think that you can ball him off out of existence or even contain it? can you do you think the bombing of flattening calls and killing thousands of palestinians is going to make any advance on releasing the hostages? i mean, i'll just send it to you like this. checks that is that in a sense of loss, knew when they attacked israel, that they would invite is really retaliation. their plan was always going to be to use not only the hostages, because the civilians as hostages,

a wire set of hostages. because of that is really a talk. and so now those are, these are being held hostage effectively by him off by these really leadership. and these are all of the international communities trying to find a way to break down, trying to find a way to break the cycle of violence and try to shift the priority to aid. rather than talking about a ground offensive or continued aerial operations. including, you know, the proposal which the us might finally signed onto. and the security council to make a pause in the conflict and humanitarian operations. the number one objective to rocks on when we saw the 2 americans released, it was just hours later that we saw the very 1st and they weren't very many. they were only 20 initially. trucks of humanitarian aid cross into garza to think that was a coincidence. so part of the deal? well, i would imagine it was probably part of the deal. so the low level of a trucks that have been allowed. and since i think our hedge it, you know,

hinges on the, on the, the, a negotiations to release those next to set of hostages on this, we've got to remember, is massively lower than the amount of a that was coming in even prior to the whole up can fly ration that began on october 7th. there were hundreds of of a trucks that normally would come into casa, and so it is really suffering without these. so both sides are, are calling those ropes in the negotiation. and so i think they are linked and i think that there is also some degree of i, i would agree with ya see, i don't think there's a great deal of information that the hostages are going to be able to to provide um, simply because i would also imagine that those hostages that are being released are

probably ones that are quite close to the point place where they're being exchanged . so i think they're being kept probably specifically out of any kind of a massive movement or, or, or, or loop of how much activities. you'll see a great deal of pressure on israel selection, more aide, but one specific item which has not been allowed in until now. which is fuel and of course fuel is needed for all sorts of things for water, sanitation, water, pumping, dissemination, unreal, which is the un agency that deals with the policy and size is going to exhaust is fuel reserves. in the next 2 to 3 days, hospitals rely on generates is one very disturbing report from unicef suggests, or about a 120 babies in incubators who would die if, if, if there was not fuel to pilot those things. you betas, do you think is route will that fuel in or not?

because it's described as a jewel use item, as it was a little bit as though many, many other commodities, though the finders doing a use of dyslexia, the talking about the lifeless many civilians, the 2200000 people living in business. highly folks who like to the place and society to saw. ready and down the line for full water and explicitly for knowledge extends on the side. ready and entering is we just, they start about $20.00 will make a huge difference and these other, so there every day for you, my internet and it will. so he is actually just on the drop off of collapse not being able to supply the basic services. there because of the car, so a may, when you had such a, such a guy since the middle will slow, there is maybe even more 8 any spaces. so the and the sides of you can see the display is it's

a trace and software population including best pretty much your best. or for many, i think what he's on is that i to, to fight against from us. and again, still isn't. it doesn't cause that light is the same thing to the size of device in the sense civilians from, from the very basic lies eventually. and we already see mold in sol. 1000 are going to see me as a cheer. so this must be a way in which and it doesn't have, it doesn't mean that's also some of the collection might be delayed, but missed find the way to reach doug, you may need to probably go this way. so i mean, and also the, the, the city is, is, is provided in 0 is provided in a 2 hosted cousin to school or not another basis. yes. you know how much there's no going to 2 fighting according to the geneva convention, but it's a democracy is supposed have been by the end suggested democracy should conduct the

now the other question i want to ask you is, but where into about national diplomacy is going because you'll be aware, but at the end of last week, the us ambassador in the united nations put a hand up the veto to resolution that would allow humanitarian pauses to put into effect, to try and deliver it as a. the us seemed to be changing that position. they put forward another draft resolution, which i was told. and something i saw from the u. a which is also on the security council that they put a submission saying that 2nd, that the, that draft from the us was severely on balance will this, i've obtained is the new us draft resolution. and for the 1st time they mention exploring additional practical steps such as humanitarian pauses and the establishment of humanitarian car doors, rocks on israel's not gonna like that. is it as well it's, it's interesting because i think the, the accompanying story to this is the bite and had been working on it. and yeah,

for some time to convince him that the, the, you know, larger picture has to be the right to, for israel to defend itself. but the, but the secondary picture has to be that it be according to international law and to conform to protecting civilians and, and the gods and people, palestinians. and so i think i'm not totally surprised that it's taking this on this 1st step where the us was extremely tough and rough and saying that the, you know, that there was going to be absolutely no cease fires. and that it was the towing, these un resolutions, but now as it has, has obviously convinced israel that, that, that a different step is important to take. i think the situation we have to recognize was very fluid. and the longer the time goes and the longer that this incubate, it's clear that humanitarians to support is absolutely critical to this and is

critical to the image of the israel will have coming out of the story. and if it is not able to allow this kind of humanitarian help, it will be increasingly isolated as it comes out of this with none of the work that had done trying to, to show up any kind of relationships with its neighbors. that will tell you just let me just tell you that briefly when coming to the end of the program, i just went off each of you very quick to what on sir? yes or no. um. is that going to be a ground? induction is the pressure on israel going to work? you'll see. to some extent, i expect smoke detectors. scott of israel will divide this into 2 parts. they'll be a ground invasion to establish more of a buffer zone. and what would cause a strip, whereas with the southern gaza strip, the emphasis will be that civilians can go there and some humanitarian who can give them some support. rocks on quickly. yes or no. i think there will be,

i don't think i could back out at this point. have to end the rocks. i'm starting to to old. i guess you'll see macro bug, scott lucas, and rocks on the farm on for my on. if you missed any part about discussion, you can always watch it again. any time on out just or don't call me if you have your own views about anything that was said post a comment on all facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story on x, the one that used to be cool. twitter with at a j inside story, comprehensive coverage of the god. so we'll continues on that which is around the clock. and i'll be back in this chat very soon. i'm on the team, stay safe for now. in 5433, mar, upfront takes on the big issues. this isn't a one off just talking about a systemic issue here. black lives don't really matter in the police for unflinching questions is war with we're wanting to imminent rigorous debate. people

are dying because of lots of medical treatments, challenging conventional with the fact that people are starting to get angry about this is in itself a sign of progress. join me more for me on hills upfront one out 0 off the coast of kenya in the indian nation. lie you ecological treasures. some in the sea and others on islands. 3 of which would means also to develop as john one was in charge of the coast area for kenya as wildlife service, which is the law for a number of the items. i think that's corruption. they have their weight. so being that which is not the for me symbol by the government. and of course they weren't able to recover the headlines from the grab us. the surrounding losses advocacy to gucci marine reserved provides century for move in to 100 dolphins. jones says it's hotels have been built on the islands. it would have been an ecological disaster. and they say that one of the companies still hold the title for this island and has

refused to have that over the company. they handed over the titles when face challenges. for now, the islands have at least instead from an equal development the phenomena of how this thing is killed in his rainy attacks on garza now exceeds 5000 moving 400 as products were carried out on monday night along the lines associated hey, this is alta 0 at life from the also coming close by for more age to be allowed into gaza.