the assessing the discussions as agents, we used to say that about 15 percent of which are smuggling is going to die. examining the headline 12 percent of the global population is responsible for 50 percent emissions, which has created this crisis, exploring abundance of 12 clause programming, designed to inform, moved to face, identify the way my story was, i felt that it was important. i did fax on algebra, his route is preparing to carry out a ground defensive in garza, but there are concerns about what will happen to those cap shipped by him as with 5 minutes to benjamin netanyahu facing growing public. kind of good. will these ready military go into regardless of the risk? this is inside stored the

hello again on change space on the bottom, boardman for more than 2 weeks. the gaza strip is bracing for an old out is really ground defensive. these very, the military leadership has declared is operation will be like, know, all the promising victory over her mice. but others fear the lives of those cap should by the post. and you know, i'm group are in jeopardy. the us is reported with most israel to the lights, attacked in the hope of securing the release of captives held by home. us will go to our guest on our panel in a moment, but 1st this report, by on a coast, i'm sure leave as well as leaders say. they will watch how most of the face of the, of these us some of the forces they intend to use. for this website, people take one month to month 3 months of energy and they'll be normal. how much for full, how much context of tanks and our inventory. they will know as a shells from our apples to, to,

to hundreds of thousands of his way the facilities have been called up to join a plan ground defensive on casa, the us is expanding its ministry presence in the middle east. in support of this was the only conductive ground defenses in golf. so again, symbols in 20142019 back, then it's english to punish and diminished that i'm true. but now the army wants to go further, but wildly is really all these steps up. it's preparations and bombardment of gaza faces challenges at home. the families of $222.00 captors being held by him of sensitive tax. southern is one nearly 3 weeks ago. i'm calling for the release. wow, you said we are in your email. i'm heading back now

to american hostages, have been fried under mediation by cup of the army says it's conducting rates to find out where all the captives are being held inside garza ahead of the ground invasion. more than a 1000000 palestinians have been ordered to move south from the north of the golf foster. these really ami is voting. those don't really be constant tetra supporters . the, the smaller humanitarian crisis is unfolding in gaza. many of concerns a major battle between as well. so me and him off forces control and countries in the region and even feel depaula's and the consumption of these phones. that story . well that spring, you know, a panel of guess to discuss all of this in london, you'll see medical book associate fellow in the middle east and north africa

program at chatham house in birmingham. scott lucas, profess the tents and institute at university college. dublin is also the founder and editor of a will view, a news analysis site and also in london. is roxanne form on for money on profess of molten middle east politics at the university of cambridge hello to you. oh, thank you very much for joining us. oh, so let's talk about the possibility that israel is on the pressure to do lights, ground defensive, starting with you. you'll see i'm from what we hear. no problem with discussing all of this military plans of secret. but from what we hear in the reports, we hear israel has already delayed this several times. any way is, is we from this see, or was, it might be actually use that. those are the day in the maybe so actually because you know exactly what the consequences on think we know the consequences of such. ready guns offensive it's, it's bound to cause many,

many lies. and i think there are different reasons. so there a lives on the reserves fairly. so there's a vase and to mobilize right now, those $300000.00 mobilized. it means they need to be things that need to be a quick, they need to be like it was, was for the us to do the nation. it said, and the search science especially, but also the tensions involved in tensions seem to know then go to the national community that the rest of these mounting because we see the level of casualties on the, on their, on the stimulus i manual for, for civilians. how is going to affect the lesion? i was going to fix the simulation and it's not so good. so we think for at least the $222.00, a hostages only to us to just have been really said that stuff and be as long as wides. that's when they get on defensive stops the source that just might be using

the human ship any way coaching the will. and there's always have to face. we don't know what's going to be the face of a lot of place. and actually also to think what is that for me to kind of a section of that if at the beginning that these are the government talks about the informational altogether from us, this is actually as live as i'm older. so we've also shooting thousands and thousands of innocent civilians, all different bids to be and much more limited the, the class so that, you know. ringback rocks um we, when we sold a present bite and go for his very brief visit just to israel last week. yes, everyone focused on how supportive he was of these ready people in these ready to government. but he did say in that speech, do not rush to war and avoid the mistakes that the us made in 911 as well. yes, i think it was clear that he was off and certainly in the behind the scenes as well . one would imagine presenting an alternative view that although he was supporting

israel's right to protect itself, he was clearly putting brakes on exactly how israel would go about that. saying that there would be implications if it approached it in the wrong way. and i think we're seeing the response across the many capitals in the world, including the error world, that there is an alternative perspective on best that it is against international law. of course a to forcibly moved people and to attack a whole community as a, as going on and gaza. and so i think there is definitely a degree of caution that the is really sort of having to build into their plans simply to avoid being further isolated as the end of this. and i think the initial program that they set out was very much simply looking at retaliation. and now

they're having to look at the end game, scotts, we hear from reports, that is actually the main conduit. persuading israel to slow down is the daily meeting between the us defense secretary lloyd austin, and his office number these ready, defense minister. you, i have go on to seems to be the most whole cation of those in the military leadership and the reports. the 2nd, the reasons and you'll see is already mentioned. some of these are those that are being held by how mass the need to get more 8 into gaza to protect us interest and the regions of those sound. like the reasons why the us would be or urging caution at the moment to you. i think the wine which has been late to the media on by american and has rarely officials that it's primarily because of the. ready 222 hostages, about 50, of whom are for nationals. i think that's actually just simply a convenient pretext for what has been the law. i'm not just of the us but of much

of the international community. very since, very soon after from office mass murder of israel, they shall go into war nations. and that is there's a 2 fault message here. and i think it's important emphasizes the 1st part of the message, not just from us, but from european leaders from leaders that all the parts, including asia, and also latin america has been what about cross the line of acceptability? when it carried out those mass murders, it can no longer be treated as, as legitimate leadership and also to provide stability and security. but at least for the 2nd part of the message, which has been the one which has been given repeatedly and not just by jo body announcing the lincoln, which is as roxanne was pointing out, how do you get rid of how much, how do you achieve this and you know, if we're moving this leadership that's create, committed crimes against humanity, without alienating and date, of course, turn not mass killing of your all of jobs or civilians. so i do think that the

emphasis was for israel to not carry out a ground offensive. and i think is where it was on the verge that ground defensive last week. i think it's also for israel to limit the bombing, which is showing no signs of doing so far. so there's less of a success here. but that brings us to that point you raise, which i think is now that she gets it. we're both symbolic and political point and that is getting humanitarian a into gaza. the argument of much of the international community is you have got to get some space between gaza civilians and how much you've got to get civilians away from the idea that her boss has their own way protector. you have got to give them an alternative, and for that, you need not just a couple 1000 and a few 1000 a trucks going and you need hundreds and thousands of trucks to be your one you and in going and very sense. you'll see i'll come back to the aid in a moment, but on the issue of those being held by him us, we have 2 americans that were released. but actually it's interesting,

if you look carefully, the estimated numbers being held have actually gone up. the originally were about a 150, then the estimate a few days ago was, was 200. i believe it's now more than $212.00. now that of course, great the limits, doesn't it be any possibility of a, of a rescue operation given that these people a property all held in different places on the heavy god and some of them probably in a maze of underground tunnels. here we're talking down to 20 to some of these, that's a total is our family member as that. so i have hostage and yeah, this complicates everything so so explain stop to this thing. yeah, those are not sort of the soldiers that we're not talking here about the business phone with the computers being kidnapped. actually vision, some very, very young age babies, children all the way to 8485 a lot. and it's almost impossible to as a conservative organization to. ready sort of, it's not, it's not for

a state the buy now probably the stairs. and they're obviously considering the way from us the, the sauce and the cost is committed to expected not to use it to you and she would be on the risk of thinking. so the best way forward these actually sol, quite negotiation behind the scenes as a, because all of the show that they are capable of looking some visual at least negotiate and the release of to and we need to see what happens next. but yeah, this is this, this from the beginning complicates, i mean, yeah. or for, for military or possession because it's, it's put them on the other immediately to scott to as we would say. but release judith, natalie rondon, an american, his randy, mother and daughter from illinois. the fact that homos released them when they did how, how, how does that complicate things?

do you think for these, right, the government and, and the push towards the ground defensive and i'm actually adding to that. why do you think i know is pure speculation because we don't know the reasons they did decide to choose to help the americans when there are so many elderly young and then from people among those being held. i think the indications are, as this was a public relations move. uh, it was a public relations move 1st of all to try to deter, and his rightly ground evasion by holding out the idea that the hostages were there . and then if you carry out these piecemeal releases, you keep on pushing the invasion back. in other words, as you also, you just pointed out, you know, these hostages are human shields. let's call it for what it is. secondly, why was it the americans? because of the americans are perceived by many to being the key factor in terms of their influence on these really leadership. that although there are many others you've been going in to israel in the past 12 days, the germans,

are they going out with a lot shots and i don't. i don't like a barrel block. the british have gone. yeah. degrees. prime ministers there today is still the idea that washington is the biggest lever on israel. so you play to american public opinion, the american public opinion, which is felt a great deal of anger over the mass killing of not only is rarely so go. but at least 31 americans. you play the americans with a lot, you know, really good. got it. you were willing to release hostages. and by the way, if you had tacos, it'd be a shame that those houses just wound up getting killed. and rocks on how much also i'm a spokesman said that they had the intention of releasing 2 more people and they named to is really citizens apartments. and that's on yahoo, whose office said this was mendacious propaganda. but this cool was his big problems. does it not within his rally israel's leadership as well? well, i think what we're seeing is that how much is playing its cards very carefully. and i, i, you know, agreed that 1st to americans, ventu is rarely is,

this is all got an agenda to of, to appeal, to not only public opinion, but also to show that there is total control over these hostages at the moment. and i think the americans were hoping that there would be quite a few palestinian americans that would be left out across the roof of border which is where the a trucks are coming in. and that there might be a somewhat of an exchange there. and that has not happened. so it shows that the release of the hostages still is very much up to how much it feels as it's showing it's not complete control over the situation. and i think it's also showing that the israeli army does not because their intelligence has shifted consistently as to how many of the, how many hostages they are there are, we don't know if they have any idea of where the hostages are. and i think that's possibly very much affecting their decision to go in because an urban

guerrilla man to man and fight in in gaza could really be very risky to know what the lives of hostages that are there. and i think there has been quite a bit of talk about negotiations. would certainly be a better way, would be a better guarantee to keep the hostages alive rather than a ground operation. and that, that certainly would put their lives much greater risk. so i think it's an interesting chess game that we're seeing here. you'll see in terms of those 2 that were released, the american is ready, mother and daughter. we haven't seen them since they've been released. i would assume and tell me if you think i'm right, is that they are being checked over by doctors, by psychologist. now the important part for these readings and the americans, that being deeper is true intelligence. they'll probably lies about so it will say,

hey, we have to remember this, so to civilian assessments. so the ass for full, full mold in 2 weeks. and yes, so for to ensure that the well being comes says, i guess you could fail those, you know, whether the americans all these or would like to go as much as possible out of there. but again, i, i don't use, they, they know too much, they've okay. well enough to, to have the intelligence community and down so well that was it just, you know, the time that the last 2 weeks with this for we had say from us and just let me just pull those to us and maybe some faces because the weight isn't as a or sensor value waiting right now, so these are the phone says to enter and then find the door to door in the in the elven areas. the time is the phone stops and, and the rest of where their lives. there is information that 2 hostages,

the release can have a bank that is community. i'm not so sure about it. a score in addition to us citizens, they're all citizens of the u. k. from germany, netherlands pine on argentina, germany from i said, germany twice, sorry. should i, spain and portugal on the list. now these include some of the us and the as rails closest allies. how much pressure do you think is coming on the is riley's from these governments? those governments will again be part of again, what is a collective effort, not just simply us effort, not just to emphasize that the lives of these hostages are at risk if there's any type of ground operation. but i think to put across the water message, which is like, even if, even if it is right on the ground, defensive is put off for a week, 2 weeks. another month, quite likely, that is roby trying out the or operations, the sustain bombing. and i think the message there is, again to this really leadership quality, you know,

can you really think that you can ball him off out of existence or even contain it? can you, do you think the bombing of flattening cause and killing thousands of palestinians is going to make any advance on releasing the hostages? i mean, i'll just send it to you like this. checks that is that in a sense a boss knew when they attacked israel, that they would invite is really retaliation. their plan was always going to be to use not only the hostages, because the civilians as hostages, a wire set of hostages. because of that is really a talk. and so now those are, these are being held hostage effectively by him off by these really leadership. and these really can you of the international communities trying to find a way to break stuff, trying to find a way to break the cycle of violence and try to shift the priority to aid. rather than talking about a ground offensive or continued aerial operations. including, you know, the proposal which the us might finally signed onto. and the security council to make a pause in the conflict and humanitarian operations. the number one objective to

rocks on when we saw the 2 americans released, it was just hours later that we saw the very 1st and they weren't very many. they were only 20 initially. trucks of humanitarian aid cross into garza to think that was a coincidence. so part of the deal, well, what imagine it was probably part of the deal. so the low level of a trucks that have been allowed. and since i think our hedge it, you know, hinges on the, on the, the, a negotiations to release those next to set of hostages on this. we've got to remember is massively lower than the amount of a that was coming in even prior to the whole of comply ration that began on october 7th, there were hundreds of of a trucks that normally would come into casa, and so it is really suffering without these so both sides are,

are holding those ropes in the negotiation. and so i think they are linked and i think that there is also some degree of i, i would agree with you also. yeah, i don't think there's a great deal of information that the hostages are going to be able to to provide um, simply because i would also imagine that those hostages that are being released are probably ones that are quite close to the point place where they're being exchanged so i think they're being kept probably specifically out of any kind of a massive movement or, or, or, or loop of how much activities. you'll see a great deal of pressure on israel to let in more aid. but one specific item which is not being allowed in until now, which is fuel and of course fuel is needed for all sorts of things for water, sanitation, water, pumping, dissemination, unreal,

which is the un agency that deals with the policy and size is going to exhaust fuel reserves in the next 2 to 3 days, hospitals rely on generates is one very disturbing report from unicef suggests, or about a 120 babies in incubators who would die if, if, if there was not fuel to pilot those. think you betas, do you think is route, will that fuel in or not? because it's described as a fuel use item as it was a little bit as though many, many other commodities. so we find this, you, in a use of district at the end of the day, we are talking about the lifeless, maybe surveillance of 2200000 people living in the c i o for collected the licenses i need to. so it's and down the line for. ready water and electricity for knowledge expense on the side. ready and entering is we just, they started out $20.00,

will make a huge difference of that. so there every day for the internet and it will. so he is actually in southern, just on the edge of, of, of pronounced, not being able to supply the basic services there because of got, so a may when yes such and such a guy since the middle will slow that is needed and lo, 8. and he's, this is so the end design, so if it gets into this, blaze is it's a j some software you nation including best pretty much your best. so for many, i think what he's doing is that i to, to fight against, from us and against. and eliza, it doesn't cause the device is the same time. so the size of device in the sense civilians from, from the very basic lies eventually and we already see mold in sol 1000. they've got a c as a here. so this must be a way in which and it doesn't have, it doesn't mean that's also some of the collection might be delayed,

but missed find the way to reach doug, you may need that in probably draw those wasteful a mean. and also the electricity is, is provided and 0 is provided in a 2 hosted cousin to school. and i had another basis. yes, you know, how much is know going to, to fighting according to the geneva convention. but is it more because he is present than by just suggest a democracy should conduct? there won't be some now, the other question i want to ask you is, but where into the national diplomacy is going. because you'll be aware that at the end of last week, the us ambassador in the united nations put a hand up the veto to resolution that would allow humanitarian pauses to put into effect. a drunk deliberate as a the us seem to be changing that position. they put forward another draft resolution which i was told, and something i saw from the u. a which is also on the security council that they put a submission saying that 2nd, that the, that draw from the us with severely on balance will this,

i've obtained is the new us draft resolution. and for the 1st time they mention exploring additional practical steps such as humanitarian pauses and the establishment of humanitarian car doors, rocks on israel's not gonna like that. is it? well it's, it's interesting because i think the, the accompanying story to this as the advice and had been working on yahoo for some time to convince him that the, the, you know, larger picture has to be the right to for israel to defend itself. but the, but the secondary picture has to be that it be according to international law and to conform to protecting civilians and, and the gods and people, palestinians. and so i think i'm not totally surprised that it's taking this on this 1st step where the u. s. was extremely tough and rough and saying that the,

you know, that there was going to be absolutely no cease fires and that it was the towing these un resolutions. but now, as it has, has obviously convinced israel that, that, that a different step is important to take. i think the situation we have to recognize was very fluid. and the longer the time goes and the longer that this incubate, it's clear that humanitarians, the support, is absolutely critical to this and is critical to the image of the israel will have coming out of the story. and if it is not able to allow this kind of a humanitarian help, it will be increasingly isolated as it comes out of this with none of the work that had done trying to, to show up any kind of relationships with its neighbors that will allow you just let me just tell you that briefly when coming to the end of the program, i just went off each of you very quick to what on sir?

yes or no. um. is that going to be a ground invasion? is the pressure on this real going to work? you'll see to some extent, i expect smoke detectors. scott of israel will divide this into 2 parts. they'll be a ground invasion to establish more of a buffer zone, and what would cause a strip. whereas with the southern gaza strip, the emphasis will be that civilians can go there and some humanitarian a can give them some support rocks on quickly. yes or no. i think there will be, i don't think i can back out at this point. have to end it the rock so i'm starting to to old i guess you'll see macro bug, scott lucas, and rocks on the farm on for my on. if you missed any part about discussion, you can always watch it again. any time on out to 0, don't call me if you have your own views about anything that was said post a comment on all facebook page. that's facebook dot com forward slash ha, inside story on x, the one that used to be cool. twitter with at a inside story, comprehensive coverage of the god. so we'll continues on that,

which is around the clock. and i'll be back in this chat very soon from all the teams. stay safe for now. so many politicians want to be the republican party's candidate for the any stand a chance against donald trump, if our planet is burning and we're running out of time, why aren't we doing more to deal with climate change? our american politics just getting to, i've been to a screen for most americans because it can look us politics. the bottom line. a, we look at the world's top business stories from global markets to economies and a small business sales force and including security around the world. is there something that the international community your view should be doing to understand how it affects? counting the cost on o g a 0 they save holes have years in palestine. they also have pies and architecture is used as

a width of teo vitamin reveals the role of architecture and is rain the occupation . everything in this panorama is a technical tool within the architecture for your patient. just need to know how to decode the architecture of finance, part of the rebel architecture series on how to adjust. the business is slow in concrete markets and the smallest trade eclipse. only 60 percent of giddeons live on less than $4.00 a day. you can stay here from morning until evening and not send anything even the full so we have to buy them. and if we don't pay back, then they'll take you to the police license very different world banks. they just told system walling come from mining a boost economic growth, the ministries failure to hand over to a democratically elected government to is to get it to renew the best. but you know, it's not stable because the machines are not stable regarding the net discovery

today in kentucky interrupted to motivate me i, but what that does india 5 countries in this part of africa run by military jumped as after a series of cruise in the last 3 years and that instability, quotesoft, invest as the the number of palestinians killed in his rainy attacks on garza now exceeds 5700. as more as strikes target, the strength, the login on this policy. okay, this is out a 0 line from don't also coming one of.