as well gutted palestine high on their shoulders and they prevailed and their sucks . they succeeded. well, as israel intensifies, as from bob and stuff gauze protests of erupt in the occupied westbank, thousands of palestinians, up and marching on the streets of ramallah commerce colon palestinians in the occupied westbank to mobilize in support of godaddy. to search the international community to take immediate action to stop israel ongoing attack. and they have been other remedies across the middle east in support of palestinians in yemen. thousands gathered in the northern city, a merit, and in the capital sense that condemning israel as well. and garza, i'm kidding, of civilian and in jordan crowds, i'm running in a comfortable, i'm many waving palestinian flags and denouncing israel's attacks on gaza. when a group of protest as has gathered outside the office of the u. k,

find sec tree cooling for the protection of children in gauze. more than $3000.00 to me and children have been killed and his ready strikes since october. the 7th. i'll just bear with me. bach is outside the front office in columbus or touching so, sol as, as the outside of foreign office, even london, living in a sense of the site and gaza times the west bank base of the west and government funded by western government, continues to offer its unequivocal support for israel, but nevertheless public opinion is most certainly shifting and legal opinion is all sort of moving to a 150 all the countries leading lawyers were talking about incredibly senior kings counselors or senior john to so tabled an open letter to the government, didn't want is time to amount to legal advice whether the government wants it or not, and then not legit advise these 3 things. firstly, unconditional seats for the players to humanitarian for the british government ends the sale of weapons to israel. and thirdly,

the government avoids running the risk of breaching the geneva convention by aging . and by seeing a government that in the lawyers opinion is openly embraced. so global humanitarian little what is clear is the benjamin netanyahu. government needs the moral and military support of the west, but as police protested than others opposed to the war across the continent. inundated with images of the daily trouble, the income there is a widening gulf between whatever benjamin netanyahu was admitted. 3 objectives. oh, and perhaps the willingness of western governments to support the bulk which is 0 london. all right, so that's it for me down jordan. so now you can find much more information on our website out to 0 dot com. i'll be back at the top of the hour with more coverage on his rails. more on cars are coming up next. a cost is counting, the cost states you thumbs up. the

with the escalation of the war on godsa. alger 0 goes to the largest task as an industry to witness how deteriorates and conditions and desperate shortages are impacting the lives of so many low stay this connected to off the shelves building should be shifting this with the wash on the medical stuff and those in need of treatment reflect on the hardship of this conflict if the electricity runs out. so just become the mass graves causes and shift the hospital. on the brink on al jazeera, the hello is good to have you with us. i'm serial then yay! you're watching. counting the cost on alpha 0, that's your weekly, looked at the world of business and economics. this week is really reservists have

left their offices. many businesses have ground to hold. israel's government moves to stabilize its economy, hit by the war on guns. also this week, hotels emptied in flights cancel. we looked at the costs of the tourism industry in israel and palestine, and the whole middle east. and the global economy is at a dangerous juncture. the world bank warns of the serious economic impact of geopolitical tensions. the known as the nations, the start of israel's almost $500000000000.00 economy, is one of the most developed in the middle east. in spite of its decades long conflict with the palestinians. the country has low debt, a current account surplus, and high foreign exchange reserves. now, as israel's military offensive escalates the war on guns that is hitting the economy hard and putting its resilience to the test. here is how the economy has

been effected so far. the currency as last value against the dollar almost every day hitting an 8 year. lo and bonds tumbled economic sectors such as construction and agriculture are at a standstill. as a record call up as military reservist says less the business is short, staffed the tech industry which accounts for 18 percent of israel g d, p and half of all exports is particularly hard hit. consumer spending is way down, is really suspending much less except on food and tax revenues are following operations at several is really ports close to guys that have been disrupted and production at a major offshore gas field has stopped us. oil giant chevron estimates that the tomorrow field provide 70 percent of israel's energy needs for power generation. and the bank of israel says that even if the war remains contain the gaza economic growth, which was forecast to hit 3 percent this year, will slow to to point 3 percent in 2023. now the central bank has held interest

rates at 4.75 percent for the 3rd straight time in order to support a weakening currency. it has previously said that it would sell up to $30000000000.00 of reserves to show up the shuttle. the governor says that the bank's policy is focused on stabilizing markets and reducing uncertainty. let's talk about all of this. i'm joined now from london by danielle, a be yankee daniella, your associate professor of finance at queen mary university of london. thank you for your time today. how bad is this for the is really economy? thanks for having me. just yesterday to find a sweeney ser, uh, put up some some estimates of that costs. so there was so far and the estimates are roughly $250.00 medium today. these are just the costs that i saw, all sorts of internet costs that come up from, from the colorado preserves obviously. how bad do you expect it might get? because we were just making the point that consumers aren't spending right now

except for food consumption on food is up. but consumption is half of these really economy domestic consumption. do you think a recession might happen that somebody would point in stock, or something is about a house on the economic activity. and it all depends on how long it lasts. and what is going to be the precautions for households and firms. it's, it's complicated to give a precise estimate. i'm not expecting notice session, but it all depends on how long it lasts. what are the major indicators that you're watching? while separately labor supply, exchange rates of interest rates, all of those things are incomplete and provided them to conflict remains confined to you know, he's a guideline doesn't want spread to other regions more to the stray patty story proper. right. and that's a big is what's the risk to the shackle? lee is really currency. what we've seen is set out how large of depreciation of the check out that basically spells inflation,

which is one of the reasons why interest rates have kept costs. and is it, is, it is a small open economies, right? and so it's entirely dependent for how the shack of fluctuates. these are the places the us dollar of the euro, so it could be probably a month to keep the, a, if the check it keeps keeps, they appreciating and in the coming days and weeks and months you expect of the central bank is going to have to sell more reserves to show up the currency. i wouldn't be surprised again, it depends on how long it lasts a. so if the, if the company drops for 4 months, hopefully not, not tiers, then we should, we should probably expect some intervention in terms of selling reserves. if they, if they weren't to keep the exchange rates under control about government intervention. daniela, i want to ask you about that. the government is rolling out a massive war time stimulus program to support people and businesses in israel. that includes grants, state bank loans to companies and financial assistance for workers,

banks and credit card companies are allowing repayment deferrals. but all this extra spending is going to increase the budget deficit and ultimately public debt. a 3 credit rating agencies warrant that israel's credit worthiness could be downgraded ok then yearly back to you. perhaps since the, since we just mentioned that the, the downgrading of the, of the, of israel's credit worthiness a standard and poors downgrade it is real. now the finance minister says that's alarmist and he has blown this off. how significant do you think that it should is real care about that? well, these are these and it is a relatively healthy situation when it comes to the debt to g d p, they show which stands as roughly 60 percent. but it's about the problem is i'm going to set, i need to stop the depth about how, how the finances we do that. it's coming for moving for one. so, i mean, it all depends on how wide spread wide spread is the complex. and it's,

it's hard to say what is going to be the effect in the budget into short term is significant, but in the long term could be the more significant. hence, the, the downgrade of the outlook from ray, from the agencies, and the government stimulus package, which, by the way, is estimated to be bigger, more important than what the government has to do during the pandemic, to show up the economy. do you think that's enough to mitigate the dangers to the economy? well, they certainly up psychological, a fact on household some firms uh which cups spending, but it certainly these a dvd effect due to a calling not preservice. so there is lots of things that are going to link. it's hard to say the stimulus is enough, but obviously they have to do something to kind of calm down uh, come down houses and farms and markets. but it's hard to say if he's going to be now, if they gave me all depends on how wide spread the conflict would be. uh, if i need him to in the coming months, hopefully,

hopefully not to talk to us about the scenarios for israel's economy. israel has said that there is no limit to how much it is going to spend, you know, on its war effort. but what does that mean? obviously, obviously the answers are going to differ on how long this all last. absolutely. uh well, i mean there is always a need to know how much you could spend, and as a said, uh, god forbid. but suppose that the contract wide spread to the rest of the strategy territory, then there's going to be in effect and infrastructure. people mean, you know, there's going to be several effects of the layers of effect depending on how bad the situation with a bowl as a side, hopefully not. but it's ok to say, if the stimulus would be enough, it all depends on the trajectory that is going to take the call plate. if you remains like typical escape to the, to the user guides. uh, setting them you might, you might be a not by the top to say at the moment and, and what if it doesn't remain in gaza as you just as you just said,

what is the worst case to other parts of the middle east then what? well, with being with biggest things throughout the east that he'd be looking back into the seventy's, there's been a huge supply shock in terms of volume. and that creates inflation is ready in place. and back in the seventy's was like, you know, about 100 percent. so certainly if the conflict wide spread of 2 major our suppliers such as your own persons, that could be really problem uptake, not just for ease, for anybody. in fact, the global economy at large or danielle, it'd be yankee, associate professor of finance at queen mary university of london. thank you so much for joining us today. now at the stage, we do want to note that the economic situation for palestinians in gaza and the occupied west bank is much worse. a gauze is running out of food, water, medicine, and fuel due to a total blockade by israel hospital is a struggling to keep generators running and power life saving medical equipment. a small aid convoys have started delivering supplies from egypt, excluding fuel,

but the u. s. relief agency is calling for a massive increase and assistance to gaza. israel's military offensive has destroyed entire neighborhoods in the enclave and displaced around half of gaza, more than 2000000 palestinians. to know more about this, do watch our previous edition of counting the costs where we detailed the crippling cost of the war for garza and it's residence earlier this month, landmarks in jerusalem and bethlehem as well as beaches in tel aviv were bustling with taurus. so was the unesco heritage sites in jericho, a city in the occupied west bank. but ever since the fighting between israel and homos started government scramble to get their citizens back home and issued travel warnings to be effected areas, new visitors a now reconsidering their plans. here's a round up on tourism and how that's affecting the region. many companies have cancelled towards the israel and the palestinian territories until the end of the

year. cruise ships avoided israel's shores, and major airlines have stopped flying to and from israel. hotels across israel have either shut down or their housing is released. we left their homes near the gaza strip. while those in the occupied west bank suffered from a sharp drop in occupancy rates, many historic sites national parks, nature reserves, restaurants are closed, and aviation experts warn the war on gaza could affect travel in other middle eastern countries, including egypt and jordan, swiss international airlines, and germany's lufthansa have already suspended flights to 11 on meanwhile, living homes. national airline has reduced its flights by half as tensions along the border with israel intensify. b radian back to his bowl arm. a group has exchanged fire with the as rarely army since the one gaza started. the middle east airlines decision came after insurance companies reduce the war risk coverage. ok, i am joined now in our studio here in the by alex. i'm

a chair with alex or an aviation unless then you're a consultant. let's start there with this issue of insurance because you were just explaining to me moments ago that you know that that's the top of the pyramid and everything trickles down from there. exactly. so what we're seeing is just like when conflict pops up, anywhere on the eviction ensure is tend to call the shots. so they are currently forbidding most airlines from operating either to as route egypt, jordan and syria, but also to other parts of the region in light of the escalations and what is and what is happening when airlines are in a position that they are ultimately unable to go to those destinations because there will be no insurance cover. what we then see is mass exodus of the carriers and we saw this with that kind of stone. we start with through done. we started in ukraine and we are seeing it. now. the airlines are simply in a position where even if they were able to determine an outline their own risk and make their own assessments as to how long they would be on the ground. perhaps they

would go with the same crew there and back. if there is no insurance cover, that's a journey they kind of make. how big do you think the damage could be to tore it to israel's tours and industry? and then i'll ask you the same question to the tourism industry in the occupied west bank. but let's start with this real show. so of course is relies heavily on tourism much like most areas of that region and travel is plummeting. we have new stats released overnight that show that on the whole the entire region is suffering . when you zoom into that region, you have countries that are not specifically at the hot investigations like jordan, for example, and 11 or 11 on seeing a 70 percent full in travel demand. over this period, george and 50 percent. and these are typically areas across including with tel aviv and other key destinations that in winter, it was specifically benefit from those high tourism numbers because they benefit from the wilma, whether they can offer to europeans and on the travelers. what about the occupied with think it's the same, the same, the situation ultimately, the middle east and this particular area of the middle east is now suffering in,

not fully into mont as a whole. these areas rely on ad travel with to bring in tourists to bring in those that are visiting friends and relatives, and so on and without at travel as it, as we just mentioned, with the insurance being pulled. it's going to have a knock on effect immediately. and that's what we're seeing now. there is no stakeholder in the whole travel ecosystem that is able to have confidence in what is going on on a vacation is inherently exposed to just about everything. but this level of uncertainty is just too much for, for business as usual. how quickly can things pick up? because right now we have a tendency to be prisoners at the moment. and right now, you know, our viewers will. everybody can intuitively understand why flights are down airports or shot people are obviously not going on. holiday 2 destinations that are in or near a war zone. how quickly could it pick back up? the whole last thing because the damage be, well the, the unfortunate part is that and we see this with other areas of conflict around the world. it takes a while, we really have to have

a period of stability that continues on for much longer than perhaps people imagine before that confidence resumes when you have ad lines. for example, global car is the passengers are booked with to then be passed on to hotels. we're ready stating that they will not be operating to the region for a minimum of 6 months. we know that unfortunately this part of turbulence for this area of the middle east, in terms of the financial stability for travel navigation, is here for the, the mid to long whole alex, but terrace. thank you very much for all that insight. thank you. and the war on gaza is not just threatening the areas where it is unfolding rich countries and the international monetary fund and the world bank warren, that a prolonged war could compound the full louse from the war and ukraine. and there are real risks to the global economy. the middle east is an important energy supplier plus a vital shipping route for goods. among the major concerns is oil prices,

which are sensitive to geo political tensions. a look at the oil price is the price of the global benchmark. that is brent crude. oil rose above $90.00 a barrel in the past 2 weeks, it has ease somewhat since then. after a diplomatic push to contain the war, a price, the price hit more than a $120.00 a barrel in march last year, after russia's invasion of ukraine. it fell back down to just above $70.00 a barrel in may, but then rose steadily because major producers cut the output at the time. observe and say that if other countries like iran, for instance, are directly involved in the war, then that could drive up the price of oil to a $150.00 a barrel. at joining us from brussels is how's the lead mackey? i'm a, you're the director of the european center for international political economy. thank you for joining us. talk to us about the volatility here because we just don't really know where this is going in terms of oil prices and oil supplies. well

indeed the truth is, you're really pointing to the, the real issue here, which is actually about the oil prices rather than the, the impact of the conflict itself. because the israel is actually are very, very more part of the global and the, even the regional economy. and so the actually, the 1st order implication of the war is quite muted. and it is very easy to draw a recollection on the 973 war quarter, up all the oil prices. we still have the ukraine crisis is refreshing mine, but so far there is no embargo there recently 9073. and the fact is that the political incentive, so pick looks very, very different now than it did back. yeah, 50 years ago. so what we have seen is basically energy prices having a great sword with relatively modest increases about 5 percent since the conflict began. and actually the bigger driver on the price is actually seemed to be the

poor economic out look in europe with the press demand for oil so, so far, so good, so far, so good. what are the scenarios that you're looking at? what are the possible realistic scenarios, the realistic scenarios as are tend to be quite the unrealistic when he comes in this region. and uh, or at least quite so real. and you would look at implications that involved, for example, a major produce a larger room. and in order to see those effects that we are reading and we'd be hurting the introduction around the increase of $250.00 or $250.00. and even under the circumstances, it would be have to remember i the, the, the, the impact on global macro will be much less on the, on the today than even 19 seventies. simply because of the fact that the, the global dependency of, or that has actually have in the last 50 years and also the, the,

the cartel opec and no big plus is actually quite split in terms of how you are responding to this crisis. and if you, for example, like a guitar that has take really taking the up and opened up the tops since the war began in the ukraine and, and, and now we're also hearing from the united states that the, my actually opened up, it's strategic reserves. so diversification over the last 5 decade seem to have actually done a little bit of the trick, at least, and we are you how i'm looking at a very different scenario. if you are looking at potentially 11 on the, even the wrong getting involved. and there are a lot of conversations going on by laterally uh, between the different parties that don't seem very united at the moment. okay, how's the, how's a cold on? because i need to give her a view as a quick reminder of why we talk about the oil prices so much. why they so important? because when the price of oil goes up, the cost of almost every thing, transport, consumer goods, food not to mention energy bills,

the price of all those things goes up. for the past 18 months, central banks have been trying to rein in inflation and keep price is contained in the us. federal reserve has been leading that efforts and its latest report on financial stability. the fed said escalation of these conflicts or worsening in other geopolitical pensions, could reduce economic activity and boost inflation worldwide. particularly in the event of prolonged disruptions to supply chains and interruptions in production. in the us fed has recently paused interest rate hikes, as inflation was showing signs of cooling. major central banks are worried that high rates could significantly slow economic activity and tip economy into a recession. the m f warned of weak global growth at 3 percent in 2023, and the slightly less than 2024. that is well below the historical average. and the world trade organization says that a whitening more would have a big impact on fragile global commercial flows. how's that back to you?

there's a massive question here around the installation. global prices cost of living. you know, it's something we've been covering a lot of course, kind of the cost of living, which, which rose sharply uh after the war and ukraine started. and a lot of our viewers will be listening to this conversation and thinking, well, could we see something like that happen again as a, as a ripple effect of the gaza or? well that's, that's my point to be. um, the importance of oil has as, as a part of it with global images of probably it has actually hives. and given the diversity of other sources that has come up since 19 seventy's. yes, indeed, we already in the recession, but the real stuff in the end of trade, israel is actually quite remote call it of the global economic system. and there are quite few supply chain to the only few, the supply chain dependencies that we are looking at when it comes to israel. and

uh, for example, things like diamonds, there are some, some assembly conductors in these rail as well. but this mountain mostly designed rather than fabrication kind of the supply chain it makes is actually quite limited . and this comes back to the point that unless you see a regionalization of this conflict with the other players getting involved, this is economically contained, the bill problem. we don't have a dependency, for example, for food production that we have, for example, in the case of ukraine that supply that lot of the well food program is also a major export of grades and i run the war. and therefore, we are exclusively looking at the disruption the on the so supplies of, um, uh, oil um 1st and foremost and are here come back to the boy. the old peg has been actually trying to unilaterally suppress the production. and i have an agreement to actually reduce the production of up to $1000000.00 barrel per year per day. and

the simply because of the fact that we, the price is actually another increase in the amount these would like to be. and then i remind also the viewers that the up and in the open conformation. there's also on the configuration that being dogs more play years. for example, like russia we just called a little bit plus was being rather unsatisfied with the prize and the global prizes over the last 12 months. and whereas actually agreed to union laboratories of pests suppressed production or the in the summer. so what we're seeing now is actually the minor corrections or movements in the prizes. it is indeed true that the 2024 is going to be a very, very difficult year. and in not least that you've given to us elections coming up. and we have a, we have is, let's say, a sensitivity around the increasing prices. but so far, especially the competitive the ukraine carts is that it has been something that can

be kept on track and it hasn't actually spilled over and to the other parts of the regions. and how much does all of that analysis change if then the conflict does escalate? well then we are looking at a completely different game altogether, of course. and that's um that's um, that's something that i guess the longer people are looking into whether he's belie, i shouldn't have an incentive to get involved. and if they do, uh does it, you're right. and i actually have the, the incentive to continue zipcode. to the extent that they do with are actually time for we though. and now i remind everyone that uh you ryan, in the us in the midst of negotiation for releasing hostages against frozen funds. that the around the has in south korea. and as a form of government negotiate to myself, i mean i, i tend to think that to keep talking about some kind of a tradeoff like cost is just on the funds. has the best date escalation effect on

any kind of rule. and the find the people actually negotiating bilaterally on an, even in the company to enter unrelated areas, makes a completely different image, right? so a completely different picture. and so, so what we're looking through on the final point here that we need to look at very, for one of the biggest areas actually china. and that basically means that a lot of these flows may actually continue, even in the case that there would be an embargo against the rest. so there is a price to boost ation effect if that you to trade it between the goal and china actually continues to happen. how exactly mackey? i'm a director of the european center for international political economy. thank you so much for joining us on the program today. thank you, and that is our show for this week to get in touch with us on the x, formerly known as twitter. at ben you several is my handle. do use the hash tag a see to see when you do or drop us an email. counting the cost at alpha 0 dot net, that's the email address that there's more for you online at alice's here dot com

slash ctc. that will take you straight to our page, which has individual reports, links, an entire episodes for you to catch up on the except for this edition of counting the cost. i'm several venue from the whole team here in doha. thank you for joining us. the news on alpha 0 is next so many politicians want to be the republican party is candidate for the any stand, a chance it gets donald trump, if our planet is burning and we're running out of time, why are we doing more to deal with climate change or american politics just getting to your wife into a screen for most americans because it can look us politics the bottom line the

the the cause i subject it to the largest is ready bombardment. since the start of the what the other ones are in jordan, this is obviously are a lie from dough with continuing coverage of israel's war on god's ground fighting intensifies and northern gauze. because i'm brigade says it's fine on to talk

themselves at his writing for 6 overwhelmed hospitals and.