for made was convicted in 2003 and was serving 7 live sentences when he was released in 2011 as part of the prison. this will deal with his row. he was expelled the goals of his family as i've lived in contact with him since then, and no contact since october, the 7th. the army drilled holes in the will, the checking the width of the concrete. so if and when they come back to the most, the house, they know exactly what equipment to bring. they demolish this one in 2003 and the family rebuilt it. it's a nightmare come true for them. available. we skate, they'll demolish the house, knowing they not linked to anything so far i was punished. he's been to jail time and they are ready to march the house. so why demolish it again? because while the raid was over in a few hours, the optimal of the lowest of the the demolition of this house and others is known as collective punishment against palestinian families. it's been criticized by his right of human rights groups. paula standing in human rights groups and the united

nations, the israel use it. as a terrence, it says if it destroys people, houses, palestinians will think twice about allowing the family members to take part in any kind of resistance. the occupation in wrong count out is there a lot. some other world news now the death toll from higher connotes as in mexico, has risen to at least 45 doesn't still missing the category 5 hurricane slammed into the result. ton of acapulco last wednesday. rapid reports, young cues of desperate people in a couple weeks to mexico. we need food and water. they brought water. but look how many of us there are. there are so many of us. more than 1600 people have been displaced after hurricane otis slammed into the resort town last week. frustrated residents expressed anger over the government response. the and what we have we have is the government support. we look at the queues,

they tell us that water will be delivered to atm, and we've been here since 5 pm. we're risking being marked. the owner of this funeral home says that with no electricity, it's become nearly impossible to provide services to the families of storm victims . because there's no electricity. we're not preparing to buy the system and we don't have permission to vary them. we have to wait 2 or 3 days, mexico's president promises to get hackable, go back on its feet and has deployed some 18000 members of mexico's and 1st is to assist with clean up and restoration. the search for the missing goes on, motivated up a little al jazeera as touching the cost is up next. the so many politicians want to be the republican party's candidate, but to any stand,

a chance it gets donald trump, if our planet is burning and we're running out of time, why aren't we doing more to deal with climate change? our american politics just getting into it screen for most americans. the quizzical look us politics, the bottom line. the hello is good to have you with us. i'm serial then. yeah, you're watching counting the cost on alpha 0. that's your weekly. looked at the world of business and economics. this week is really reservists have left their offices. many businesses have ground to a halt. israel's government moves to stabilize its economy, hit by the war on guns. also this week, hotels emptied in flights cancel. we look at the costs of the tourism industry and israel and palestine and the whole middle east. and the global economy is at

a dangerous juncture. the world bank warns of the serious economic impact of geopolitical tensions, the known as the nations, the start of israel's almost $500000000000.00 economy is one of the most developed in the middle east. in spite of its decades long conflict with the palestinians. the country has low debt, a current account surplus, and high foreign exchange reserves. now, as israel's military offensive escalates the war on guns that is hitting the economy hard and putting its resilience to the test. here is how the economy has been effected. so for the currency as last value against the dollar, almost every day hitting an 8 year, lo and bonds tumbled economic sectors such as construction and agriculture are at a standstill. a record call up as military reservist says left, the business is short staffed the tech industry which accounts for 18 percent of

israel g d, p and half of all exports is particularly hard hit. consumer spending is way down, is really suspending much less except on food and tax revenues are following operations at several is really ports close to guys that have been disrupted and production at a major offshore gas field has stopped us. oil giant chevron estimates that the tomorrow field provide 70 percent of israel's energy needs for power generation. and the bank of israel says that even if the war remains contain the gaza economic growth, which was forecast to hit 3 percent this year, will slow to to point 3 percent in 2023. now the central bank has held interest rates at 4.75 percent for the 3rd straight time in order to support a weakening currency. it has previously said that it would sell up to $30000000000.00 of reserves to show up the shuttle. the governor says that the bank's policy is focused on stabilizing markets and reducing uncertainty. let's

talk about all of this. i'm joined now from london by danielle, a be yankee daniella. you are associate professor of finance at queen mary university of london. thank you for your time. today how bad is this for the is really economy? thanks for having me. just yesterday to find a sweeney ser, uh, put up some some estimates of that costs. so there was so far and the estimates are roughly $250.00 medium today. these are just the costs that i saw, all sorts of internet costs that come up from, from the colorado preserves obviously. how bad do you expect it might get? because we were just making the point that consumers aren't spending right now except for food consumption on food is up. but consumption is half of these really economy domestic consumption. do you think a recession might happen, that somebody would point stock or something is about to hop on the economic activity and pick it all depends on how long it lasts. and what is going to be the

precautions for households and firms. it's, it's complicated to give a precise estimate. i'm not expecting notice session, but it all depends on how long it lasts. what are the major indicators that you're watching? while separately labor supply, exchange rates of interest rates, all of those things are going to leading to provided the conflict remains confined to you know, even though you guys are and the other one spread to other regions more to the strain patty story proper. right. and that's a big is what's the risk to the 2nd lee is really currency? well, we've seen is that a large depreciation of the check out that basically spells inflation, which is one of the reasons why interest rates have kept costs than is it is it is a small open economies, right? and so it's economy, depending how the shackled fluctuates. these are the prices, the us dollar of the euro, so it could be probably a month to keep the,

if the check it keeps, keeps the appreciating income to coming days and weeks and months. do you expect to have a central bank is going to have to sell more reserves to shore up the currency? i wouldn't be surprised again, it depends on how long it lasts a. so if the, if the company drops for 4 months, hopefully not, not tiers, then we should, we should probably expect some intervention in terms of selling reserves. if they, if they weren't to keep the exchange rates under control about government intervention. daniela, i want to ask you about that. the government is rolling out a massive war time stimulus program to support people and businesses in israel. that includes grants, state bank loans to companies and financial assistance for workers, banks and credit card companies are allowing repayment deferrals. but all this extra spending is going to increase the budget deficit and ultimately public debt. a 3 credit rating agencies warrant that israel's credit worthiness could be

downgraded ok. then you have a back to you, perhaps since the, since we just mentioned that the, the downgrading of the, of the, of israel's credit worthiness. a standard and poors, downgraded israel. now the finance minister says that's alarmist and he has blown this off. how significant do you think that it should is real care about that? well, these are these and it is a rabbit to be healthy situation when it comes to the debt to g. d, p, they show which sends is roughly 60 percent. but it's a matter of all blue is i'm going to set, i need to stop the data. but how, how the finances we do that, it's coming for moving for one. so, i mean, it all depends on how wide spread wide spread is the complex. and it's, it's hard to say what is going to be the effect of the budget into short term is significant, but in the long term could be the more significant. hence, the, the downgrade of the outlook from ray, from the agencies, and the government stimulus package, which, by the way, is estimated to be bigger,

more important than what the government has to do during the pandemic, to show up the economy. do you think that's enough to mitigate the dangers to the economy? well, they certainly up psychological, a fact on household some firms uh which cups spending very simply these uh for the dvds back due to a calling not preservice. so there is lots of things that are into lane. it's hard to say to stimulus is enough, but obviously they have to do something to kind of calm down uh, come down houses and farms and markets. but it's hard to say if he's going to be now, if they gave me all depends on how wide spread the conflict would be if i need him to in the coming months, hopefully hopefully not to talk to us about the scenarios for israel's economy. israel has said that there is no limit to how much it is going to spend, you know, on its war effort. but what does that mean? obviously, obviously the answers are going to differ on how long this all last. absolutely. uh

well, i mean there is always a need to know how much you could spend, and as a said, uh god forbid. but suppose that the contract wide spread to the rest of these ready territory, then there's going to be in effect and infrastructure. people mean, you know, there's going to be several effects of the layers of effect depending on how bad the situation readable as a side, hopefully not. but it's ok to say if the stimulus would be enough, it all depends on the trajectory that is going to take the call place. the fear remains like circle scape to the, to the user guides. uh, set thing down. you might, you might be a not by the top to say at the moment and, and what if it doesn't remain in gaza as you just as you just said, what is the worst case to other parts of the middle east then what? well, with being with biggest things throughout the east that he'd be looking back into the seventy's, there's been a huge supply shock in terms of volume. and that creates inflation is ready in place. and back in the seventy's was like, you know,

about 100 percent. so certainly if the complex wide spread of 2 major odd suppliers, such as your own persons, that could be really problem uptake, not just for ease, for anybody. in fact, the global economy at large or danielle, it'd be yankee, associate professor of finance at queen mary university of london. thank you so much for joining us today. now at the stage, we do want to note that the economic situation for palestinians in gaza and the occupied west bank is much worse. a gauze is running out of food, water, medicine, and fuel due to a total blockade by israel hospital is a struggling to keep generators running and power life saving medical equipment. a small aid convoys have started delivering supplies from egypt, excluding fuel, but the u. s. relief agency is calling for a massive increase and assistance to gaza. israel's military offensive has destroyed entire neighborhoods in the enclave and displaced around half of gaza, more than 2000000 palestinians. to know more about this,

do watch our previous edition of counting the costs where we detailed the crippling costs of the war for garza and it's residence. earlier this month, landmarks in jerusalem and bethlehem as well as beaches in tel aviv were bustling with taurus. so was the unesco heritage sites in jericho, a city in the occupied west bank. but ever since the fighting between israel and homos started government scramble to get their citizens back home and issued travel warnings to be effected areas, new visitors a now reconsidering their plans. here's a round up on tourism and how that's affecting the region. many companies have cancelled towards the israel and the palestinian territories until the end of the year. cruise ships avoided israel's shores, and major airlines have stopped flying to and from israel. hotels across israel have either shut down or their housing is released. we left their homes near the gaza strip. while those in the occupied westbank suffered from a sharp drop in occupancy rates. many historic sites national parks,

nature reserves, restaurants are closed, and aviation experts warn the war on gaza could affect travel in other middle eastern countries, including egypt and jordan, swiss international airlines and germany's lufthansa have already suspended flights to 11 on. meanwhile, lebanon's national airline has reduced its flights by half as pensions along the border with israel intensify. b radian back to his bowl arm, a group has exchanged fire with the is really army, since the one guys have started. the middle east airlines decision came after insurance companies reduce the war risk coverage. ok, i am joined now in our studio here in the by alex and a chair with alex or an aviation unless then you're a consultant. let's start there with this issue of insurance because you were just explaining to me moments ago that you know that that's the top of the pyramid and everything trickles down from there. exactly. so what we're seeing is just like

when conflict pops up, anywhere on the eviction ensure is tend to call the shots. so they are currently forbidding. most airlines from operating either to is rout egypt, jordan and syria, but also to other parts of the region in light of the escalations and what is and what is happening when airlines are in a position that they are ultimately unable to go to those destinations. because there will be no insurance cover. what we then see is mass exodus of the carriers and we saw this with that kind of stone. we start with through done, we started in ukraine and we all seeing it now. the airlines simply in a position where even if they were able to determine an outline their own risk of making their own assessments as to how long they would be on the ground. perhaps they would go with the same crew there and back. if there is no insurance cover, that's a journey they kind of make. how big do you think the damage could be to tore it to israel's tours and industry? and then i'll ask you the same question to the tourism industry in the occupied west bank, but let's start with this real show. so of course is relies heavily on tourism much

like most areas of that region and travel is plummeting. we have new stats released overnight that show that on the whole the entire region is suffering. when you zoom into that region, you have countries that are not specifically at the hot investigations like jordan, for example, and 11 on 11 on seeing a 70 percent full in travel demand. over this period, george and 50 percent. and these are typically areas across including with tel aviv and other key destinations that in winter, it was specifically benefit from those high tourism numbers because they benefit from the wilma, whether they can offer to europeans and other travelers. what about the occupied with think it's the same, the same, the situation ultimately, the middle east and this particular area of the middle east is now suffering in, not fully into mont as a whole. these areas rely on ad travel with to bring in tourists to bring in those that are visiting friends and relatives, and so on and without at travel as it is. we just mentioned with the insurance being pulled. it's going to have

a knock on effect immediately. and that's what we're seeing now. there is no stakeholder in the whole travel ecosystem that is able to have confidence in what is going on on a vision is inherently exposed to just about everything. but this level of uncertainty is just too much for, for business as usual. how quickly can things pick up? because right now we have a tendency to be prisoners at the moment. and right now, you know, our viewers will. everybody can intuitively understand why flights are down airports or shot people are obviously not going on. holiday 2 destinations that are in or near a war zone. how quickly could it pick back up? the whole last thing because the damage be, well the, the unfortunate part is that and we see this with other areas of conflict around the world. it takes a while, we really have to have a period of stability that continues on for much longer than perhaps people imagine before that confidence resumes when you have ad lines, for example, global care is the passengers are booked with to then be possible into hotels. we're ready stating that they will not be operating to the region for

a minimum of 6 months. we know that unfortunately this part of turbulence for this area of the middle east, in terms of the financial stability for travel navigation, is here for the, the mid to long whole alex, but terrace. thank you very much for all that insight. thank you. and the war on gaza is not just threatening the areas where it is unfolding rich countries and the international monetary fund. and the world bank warren, that a prolonged war could compound the full allows from the war and ukraine. and there are real risks to the global economy. the middle east is an important energy supplier plus a vital shipping route for goods. among the major concerns is oil prices, which are sensitive to geo political tensions. a look at the oil price is the price of the global benchmark. that is brent crude. oil rose above $90.00 a barrel in the past 2 weeks, it has ease somewhat since then. after a diplomatic push to contain the war, a price the price hit more than a $120.00

a barrel in march last year after rushes and vision of ukraine, it fell back down to just above 70 dollars a barrel in may, but then rose steadily because major producers cut the output at the time, observe and say that if other countries, like iran, for instance, are directly involved in the war, then that could drive up the price of oil to a $150.00 a barrel. at joining us from brussels is who is a lead mackey? i'm a you're the director of the european center for international political economy. thank you for joining us to talk to us about the volatility here because we just don't really know where this is going in terms of oil prices and oil supplies. while indeed the truth is, you're really pointing to the, the real issue here, which is actually about the oil prices rather than the, the impact of the conflict itself. because israel is actually, are very,

very more part of the global. i'm even the regional economy. and so the, actually the 1st order implication of the war is quite muted, and it is very easy to draw a recollection on the 973 war quadruple the ord prizes. we still have the ukraine crisis isn't fresh in mind, but so far there is no embargo or that would be so a $9073.00. and the fact is that the political incentive, so pick looks very, very different now than it did back. yeah. 50 years ago, so what we have seen is basically, and this reprice is having a really sword with relatively modest increase is about 5 percent since the conflict began. and actually the bigger driver on the price is actually seem to be the poor economic out look in europe with suppressed demand for oil so, so far, so good, so far, so good. what are the scenarios that you're looking at? what are the possible realistic scenarios?

the realistic scenarios as are tend to be quite the unrealistic when he comes in this region. and uh, or at least quite so real. and you would look at the implications that involved, for example, i major produce a larger room. and in order to see those effects that we are reading and we'd be heard in the introduction around the increase of $250.00 or $250.00. and even under the circumstances, it'd be have to remember actually that the impact on global matter would be much less on the, on the today than even 19 seventies. simply because of the thank the, the global dependency of, or that has actually have in the last 50 years. and also the, the, the cartel opec and opec plus is actually quite split in terms of how you are responding to this crisis. and if you, for example, like a guitar that hasn't paid really taking the up and the opened up the tops since the war began in ukraine and again. and now we are also hearing from the united states

that the my actually opened up. it's that easy to reserves, so diversification over the last 5 decade seem to have actually done a little bit of the trick, at least. and we are you how and looking at a very different scenario. if you are looking at potentially 11 on the, even the wrong getting involved. and uh, there are a lot of conversations going on by laterally uh, between the different parties that don't seem very united at the moment. okay, how's the, how's the cold on? because i need to give our view as a quick reminder of why we talk about the oil prices so much. why they so important? because when the price of oil goes up, the cost of almost everything, transport consumer goods, food not to mention energy bills, the price of all those things goes up. for the past 18 months, central banks have been trying to rein in inflation and keep prices contained in the us. federal reserve has been leading that efforts and its latest report on the financial stability. the fed said escalation of these conflicts or worsening in

other geopolitical pensions, could reduce economic activity and boost inflation worldwide. particularly in the event of prolonged disruptions to supply chains and interruptions in production. in the us fed has recently paused interest rate hikes as inflation was showing signs of cooling. major central bank so worried that high rates could significantly slow economic activity in tip economies into a recession. the i m f warned of weak global growth at 3 percent in 2023, and the slightly less than 2024. that is well below the historical average. and the world trade organization says that a whitening more would have a big impact on fragile global commercial flows. how's that back to you? there's a massive question here around the installation. global prices cost of living. you know, it's something we've been covering a lot of course, kind of the cost of living, which, which rose sharply uh after the war and ukraine started. and

a lot of our viewers will be listening to this conversation and thinking, well, could we see something like that happen again as a, as a ripple effect of the gaza or? well that's, that's my point to be. um, the importance of oil has as, as a part of it with global images of probably it has actually hives. and given the diversity of other sources that has come up since 19 seventy's. yes, indeed, we already in the recession, but the real stuff in the end of trade, israel is actually quite remote call it of the global economic system. and there are quite few supply chain to the only few, the supply chain dependencies that we are looking at when it comes to israel. and uh, for example, things like diamonds, there are some, some assembly conductors in these rail as well. but this mountain mostly designed rather than fabrication kind of the supply chain if x is actually quite limited. and this comes back to the point that unless you see

a regionalization of this conflict with the other players getting involved, this is economically contained, the bill problem. we don't have a dependency, for example, for food production that we have, for example, in the case of ukraine that supply that lot of the well food program is also a major export of grades and i run the war. and therefore, we are exclusively looking at the disruption the on the so supplies of, um, uh, oil um 1st and foremost and are here come back to the point the opec has been actually trying to unilaterally suppress production. and i have an agreement to actually reduce the production of up to $1000000.00 barrels per year per day. and the simply because of the fact that we, the price is actually another increase in the amount they would like to be. and then i remind also the viewers that the open in the, in the open conservation. there's also around the configuration that being dogs more play years. for example, like russia we just called

a little bit plus was being rather unsatisfied with the prize and the global prizes over the last 12 months. and whereas actually agreed to unionize, what is the best suppress production or the in the summer? so what we're seeing now is actually the minor corrections or movements in the prices. it is indeed true that the 2024 is going to be a very, very difficult year. and in not least that you've given to us elections coming up. and we have a, we have is, let's say, a sensitivity around the increasing prices. but so far, especially the competitive the ukraine carts is that it has been something that can be kept on track and it hasn't actually spilled over and to the other parts of the regions. and how much does all of that analysis change if then the conflict does escalate? well then we are looking at a completely different game altogether,

of course. and that's um that's um, that's something that i guess the longer people are looking into whether he's belie, i shouldn't have an incentive to get involved. and if they do, does it you're right. and i actually have the incentive to continue zipcode. to the extent that they do with are actually time for we though. and now i remind everyone that uh you ryan, in the us in the midst of negotiation for releasing hostages against frozen funds that the around has in south korea. and as a form of government negotiate to myself, i mean i, i tend to think that to keep talking about some kind of a trade off like cost is just on funds. has the best date escalation effect on any kind of rule. and the find of people actually negotiating bilaterally on an, even in the company to enter unrelated areas, makes a completely different image, right? so a completely different picture in terms of what we're looking through on the final point here that we need to look at very,

for one of the biggest areas actually china. and that basically means that a lot of these flows may actually continue either in the case, so there would be an embargo against the rest. so there is a price the bill is ation effect. if that should have traded between the goal and china actually continues to happen. how exactly mackey? i'm a director of the european center for international political economy. thank you so much for joining us on the program today. a thank you. and that is our show for this week to get in touch with us on the x formerly known as twitter at venue. several is my handle. do use the hash tag a see to see when you do or drop us an email. counting the cost at alpha 0 dot net, that's the email address that there's more for you online at alice's here dot com slash ctc. that will take you straight to our page, which has individual reports, links, and entire episodes for you to catch up on the except for this edition of counting the cost. i'm several venue from the whole team here in doha. thank you for joining

us. the news on alpha 0 is next. the tuition is so bad. 5 the next to this moment on the fiber optics of goods. what are the people in the state of shock? people are very scared, very stressed. a lot of people are saying the country contented carter attacks the bombing mark shutoff by our government. it's just care of both sides. which is the rise here to report on the people often ignored, but who must be hurt? how many other channels can you say? we'll take this time and put extensive followed into reporting from under reported areas. of course, we cover major global events that are passion lies in making sure that you're hearing the stories from people in places like how this finds,

the young man has regions and so many others we go to them to make the effort. we care restrict the . ready enough at nights and darkness as fast bottles continued between is rarely forces and from us because of the non carry johnston. this is i'll just say with life and also he's ready as strikes as killed, more than 8300 kind of thing. and since all type of the sudden thousands of the victims of children, the tax on hospitals continue unabated. this time.