into somalia, southern africa jen reeds right now, and we'll be up this week. then 1000000 palestinian will leave the house. as i looked at the south of the gulf has an area that come to be really enough for hosting this specific number of displaced people are evacuating to a place for us to do this. there isn't any safe place to go. people, hospitals that need electricity, they need walter for their life is really cheap. did subjective, is fine. launching was on cancer for decades. it has phones, the strip and light staged palestinians, their doubts carrying out. yet another more on a scale, never seen before, but will it serve as rows purposes? this is inside story. the

hello welcome to the program. i'm toma cried is riley troops have entered garza from its north and east and intensified. thing is being reported between his riley soldiers and homos finances. that's as this trip is being continuously bombarded, sofa more than $8300.00 palestinians have been killed with that number rising all the time. this is not the 1st time as well has launched the military offensive and the territory. this is its 5th since 2007 protests being held around the world in support of the palestinians. and many fate of the conflict could spread through the region and beyond. so is possible and what does israel seek to gain from its unprecedented boy on gaza? there's plenty to discuss without guess, but 1st, this report by sour gill that looks at as well as military actions and the history

behind the, the bulls of fire have lifts up the sky above casa, every night since october, the 7th. but a communications blackout followed by one of israel's mice, promotions bombardments laid the foundations of its ground invasion. israel's prime minister benjamin netanyahu says he will not give into demands for cease by a just as the united states would not agree to cease far after the bombing of pearl harbor. or after the terrorist attack of $911.00. israel will not agree to a cessation of hostilities with some us after the risk attacks of october, 7th, costs for seas, for a cost for israel to surrender, to come us to surrender. to tear was the surrender to barbara's that will not happen is real fast occupied the gaza strip in 1967. and it's how the tight grip ever since. in 2005,

it disengaged ordering juice that was to leave. but it is kept control of the lives of palestinians ever since. and in 2007, impose the blockade of land at sea. often have must control the territory from 5 to us. since 2008 is round, has repeatedly launch the tax on the densely populated area. today is ready. tanks have been seen on one of the main roads in gaza linking the north and south. they believed to be preparing to divide the strip of my says it spiked as a bustling is ready for that. but the people who live in gaza, they say no way is safe with clubs, but we close them. i don't think we have the sounds all the time they i'm by we've also been in the we have each other. when do we both? both we both break up or about. this is the 5th cycle of violence and gaza in

recent years. and it's even led to increased fighting between is re forces and has block on the boat between left and on and his route is fueling fees of the why the conflict in the middle east, impulsively beyond many a question is ralph makes if i'm what it may gain and lose by waiting this unprecedented war on gaza. sorry, go the inside story. like i, let's bring in august now and tell of is michael her ari policy fellow at the mentioned institute, a political think tank. he is also the form is rarely invested as a cypress, and the former counselor for political affairs at the embassy of israel in the united kingdom. and cairo is our occur founder and director of european north african center of research. and in london is chunk of georgie,

the defense editor with the economist. thank you very much for being with us here on inside story, michael. if i could please begin with you. as well stated goal is to wipe out who mazda is both the militant group and the political force inside godsa. how realistic is that from is a from and is riley point of view. it was going to be white, and i think that's better. that's a bit to be nice today by pressing the guns clear of them. now, now after the incident, this is and what should be done, let's say, i think it's the cost clear in the 11th for all these red is because previous to that, i mean, we have different kinds of lives or different kind of perceptions benefit. we may be able to get data from assets, etc, etc. and i think it is why it's clear for the international law and the actual, i don't know, to be honest. i mean, it's why keep pressing the support for that is only and let's say authentication,

right? now, oh not eh, i mean, not confuse our sentence in between. the support of not enabling how much any on to meant nothing to anybody to get on and the chief man, and as far as the be concerned about that he meant that i solution. so i think it is going to be a very that becomes a sort of back to back to be honest. okay, sorry. do you think that at this point in time that israel has a long term plan when it comes to an extended for as well. uh, i don't think as far as can uh, j calling that very long floor, especially that it's um, it's losing its diplomatic ties. it's losing its normalization steps. it's live the decades of social diplomacy and integration in the region today with this

whole start act is where it is making everything difficult for itself. not for anyone else. it's not 3 a mistake at all because the country, it, it is read as a state in this region cannot practice this. and this kind of practices, especially that it's trying to be integrated. it's starting to win over neighbors. so it doesn't look realistic to lose decades of diplomacy isn't shushing. do you think that israel has potentially backed itself into a bit of a corner here by saying so early on after october, the 7th that it was going to decimate him? us with a huge ground invasion is going to completely overwhelm is. do you think that now it could be potentially perceived as being weak if it doesn't follow through, on those threats that it made? so really on here. yes, i should say is around never committed to

a full scale ground invasion, but it did commit to the destruction johan us. and i think that that is a risk that it finds itself unable to do so in a reasonable time frame. and it is worth remembering here that almost every previous ground invasion of garza has been roughly in the region of 2 weeks. when now seeing is randy officials talk about a wall that may last for a few months. but if you think about the extent of how mass is networking side garza, the fact that they have been running goals are formerly for 16 years. but of course they're influenced inside districts. it goes back a long way before that. this is going to be an exceptionally difficult military job and unless they can, by themselves the diplomatic space to conduct military operations in gaza, probably for years to come. i think it's, it's not going to be realistic, but they can completely eliminate homeless. his military and political presence, and therefore he will be back to some kind of situation in which they will be containing and managing how nice his presence rather than having destroyed it altogether at the end. oh, my god, what's your response to that?

is there an appetite for the war foot for a full invasion? is there a service for revenge with an israel? and do you think that that is clouding any judgment in terms of the, the, the consequences of having a long drawn out war? i fully understand those about these say, what's your most? i mean i say i'm in most of them is most of them. what i'm saying is that this is a different situation. this is not the, as you around off the fireman that you had in the last few fuel fuel. yes. every year you got an hour or 2. yes. let's say this is a different situation. i think it is why i emphasize data. nowadays, it is very clear to me that this is what the bucket has to do. now i'm going to be not to, i mean, the law process, but i don't think it's the less a month or yes. i mean, i don't, i don't to, let's accept any given statement by the way, but let's say yes, it is correct and sign up saying that the,

the key is right and needs to be is role like the middle. there are $2.00 off a month after that say the if i bought i get i passed by how mass? to be honest, i am still in the process buying the, let's say so far, strategic support. the agent itself as well. we and the pension and the price of domestically in each account to let's say, the whole time we can figure out, let's say, in the region, it goes down, i'll do my best space. but then it is a clear understanding. again, what i'm assessing to drop it, how much i know we, we always succeed. i think it today, i missed it, but i look to see that i cannot, i can look at it. this is, this is a point. it is a home on the same goal for too many of those instead of using the oh, okay. uh, i just want to bring in uh, a little bit more on this when we talk about the ground invasion. because uh before

is ready trips into guns. i spoke with david to try it as a form of director of the us central intelligence agency, about the risks that come with a ground invasion. here's what he had to say about this. what would be an extraordinary challenging scenario? and it's hard to appreciate. in fact, how difficult this would be, we've discussed describing this fiendishly difficult. urban combat is always challenging, but when you add the presence of over $200.00 is really hostages. you add in a, an enemy who is willing to kill himself, to take his relatives with them. a movement that, as you know, is founded on the idea of destroying israel and killing jews, as we saw saturday over a week ago with the horrific murder, barbaric and exclusive, over 1300 is released. this would be a very, very challenge. you mentioned keep in mind that it took the rocky security forces 9

months to clear a similar city most, all of the islamic state, other terrorist elements, obviously, extremist, with support of the us. the is really, is, are much better. they have a lot more capability. well, that's clearly someone who knows a lot about the ground invasions having been involved in the us invasions of iraq and afghanistan. she's having militarily, how difficult is this going to be for these riley troops to, to try and take northern guys with the extensive tunnel network that hamas has got to as well. the answer is very difficult and just to give you a sense of why, let's reflect on the fact that in 2014, during operation protective age, the last major, israel garza conflict. the idea, as i understand it took out about 32 kilometers all time as tunnels. as i understand it is about 1300 kilometers of those tunnels across gauze. so that gives you an indication of how difficult that is. we can also compare this to all the

comparable of and conflict. and if you look at the coalition effort to try to remove islamic state from most old back in 20162017. that was a 9 months campaign on the ground, preceded by many months prior to that the best strikes. but still in could it called costs very heavy civilian casualties. and it was conducted using a ground force of iraqi units who are able to benefit from western intelligence and western drugs in western and power. this is going to be a different kind of campaign. it's going to be a different campaign because the idea will have to do with itself. the idea is a conscript army. of course, a large number of those who been mobilized are not regular professionals. and it will have to do this on an accelerated time table, much more quickly than the coalition was able to do in muscle. so all in all this is going to be difficult even in relation to all of these extremely difficult and

campaigns all for lu jr. ramadi muscle and many others, even by the stand it, it will be difficult. sorrow. we've all seen the civilian cost already, and in the end, the week since october, the 7th, that is clearly only going to become worse once a full ground invasion is on the why isn't it the bull ground evasion is totally a breach to humanity that if that's how exactly you see it. first of all, we refuse the comparison of your stomach stage to have mass event. if some of that kind of a countries that our countries are not getting along with hammers. but the comparison here is rejected, specially because this is a distance group we call high mass of assistance book because they fight for their civilians over guys that that's how we state because it now all the era people who

work again is how mass. now they are revolving around them. who do you think? did that? i think these really prime minister did that in corps, iran and kind of as in the region, it doesn't have to be the folds of civilians today. it doesn't have to fall on the expense of forced to 4000 little kids. it doesn't have to be that way. we don't have to see the scenery. okay. if that's right and has more uh, uh, aspiration and expanding in the region that's also rejected evacuating the people from a land, a territory that the stairs already but all, and are they colonization of is raised? so that should be respect because there is international loading that part to protect civilians entre per tech is a right and to protect the neighbors, right. but it's very 1st has to jerome it's borders in order not to

face this kind of conflicts again in the region this region doesn't need every, it should have hope cuz on the iranian action from the region and try to get like a purchase that so yes, yes, michael, complicating this even further is the fact that there's more than 200 is ready to capt is being held by him. us somewhere in gaza. i mean do you think that that's a, that's a priority is right. i know a lot of family members of those being held outraged. it's a no more has been done. this is our priority plays that. but the, the only emphasize the complexity of this advice. i spend the day before yesterday and different interview with the families of the hospital doing their job goods as much as possible, all the government and the government civilians jumping over to release the field

for our discussion. if the company carries very much along the organization in got that, how do you deal with the, your people release them and to, as a matter of how much i want to, but at least the comments on examples. let's say i want to think about it. if i make, it does not want to be up to bind to hard gather it did not say that if you could give a heavy, that's a full brownwell duration. it did not say so. in my opinion, it to me is that this process which really, let's say a lot, i have no idea how long it takes. we'd be able to get his them in the, by the metal bands. i brought in my notes on the game is not a fine to do is to examine restaurant as much as possible over how much by distinguishing the wrong dependent still gonna be. but it got us to be honest,

us going get going be not, not, not for the successful i am aware of this supplemental instability and kept track of this, let's say in gonna say, let's say in guthrie. but basically this is, is rarely bodies. now i am 400 wow. and 40 i was telling them that they had to be brought by this danielle study that is related all the region of please don't make mistakes. that assignment statement. they the distinction, but reinstall the device to be on people and to, let's say, i guess some, uh, yeah, it sort of understood showing, as we saw on october the 7th as well as military and intelligence. i had a mess of 5. yes. and they said that they were even embarrassed by how easy it was for a mouse to go across the board. do you think that israel's army has been overestimated?

end on the other side of that, do you think that a ground defensive actually plays into him off his hands because obviously it doesn't have tanks or any will planes, but it can fight straight to street building to building tunnel to tunnel. yes, the festival, i think that all old countries are at risk of intelligence. that is, it does happen to all countries that happened to the united states on $911.00. it is happened to european countries with terrorism in the last last 5 to 10 years. even ukraine itself was surprised by the russian attack being discounted american intelligence. but it is nevertheless, the case. but these are all defense forces remain the most technologically sophisticated and well trained on force in the middle east. you may like them, you may despise them, but that's, that's a professional assessment about that proficiency on the ground. but nonetheless, i think you're absolutely right to say that certain types of invasions in play into the hands of thomas, the name of terrorism. notwithstanding my colleagues reference to having us as

a resistance group, the name of terrorism is the strategic use of violence. it is sometimes designed to provoke a response, but can wesson conditions for civilians in an area by dragging on e n a. and by creating political conditions fits favor, the tire restore, nice ation. that is what we saw from al qaeda is what we have seen from all the groups. and it could be what we see from high mass. so while my view is know on force in the well, but stand by off to the kind of mastic of that we saw on october 7th. and it is entirely understandable the israel meets the weekend and the great honda so that it cannot repeat that kind of massacre if it were to be sucked into gaza in an open ended occupation. i think that the risk, as we have seen in some previous, is rarely conflicts like that in 11 in the 1980s is that it creates political conditions that may perversely stay behind us. and i think no is rarely official,

would really say that no end date. so there's also a risk of this splitting b on gaza. and israel isn't there because there's been a lot of talk about contagion about this being bright, breaking out into a wider war around his blah. and now potentially human getting more and more involved. how big concern is that? and that's what nobody wants. that's what no country or stage in this region of the world helps for. but that's it. but it's it's, it's really weird how the west sees things or is raised bar to an hour part. we see that there's a lot of injustice here. guys, what was under siege, and then there is, is some political disputes in israel and then all of this revenge comes out on the guys the people just after mass oak ration again is a, the is really government which was an operation that does not include to such huge

invasion and no one was and said to be a region of war taking more of the, of our resources more people's lives. no one wants that. but that, that fear might come if it continues like that because no one can know it. because the way you would, when would they get involved, then we kind of know that the kind of eager for it. okay, so the piece and not to drag this region down to, to, to more fire and bring funding. i'm up, i don't know what, what are we waiting for more involvement from other countries and, and, and, and to save how to save days, ready for our minister to save oh, on the expensive people. me. and it doesn't make any sense on the expensive of human lives. so is there is raised as a state, as people that we do respect people, a human kind everywhere should get done with that and with their government. and i

say that yes. okay. michael, just after all the fighting has finished. this is where i'll actually have a plan for what happens next doesn't want to occupied. gaza doesn't want to try and displace the millions of people that will still be occupying that land. i think just, i think to put it as clear as possible that say this is not an invasion, is it submitted to the old fashion? and as i said the but this is what happens next. what happens off the the invite? yeah, yes, yes, absolutely, absolutely. yes, i think if it is successful enough, let's say, then it should be possible. the pamela, also, sorry, b, and to, to replace it with the legitimate i the, but i still have the problem. clearly it wouldn't need that. they should not be the other. clearly, it wouldn't need that. and so not an international insight, environmental salma, and hopefully we can, we can, you can reach this point,

but i want to mention one more, eh, what about the lack of peace process is what i understand. it's not tragically. okay, that's a little piece process. let's nickel for me because it and that's a momentum is a create, a kind of mistake. nowadays we have an emergency government. i don't know what happens after the lot. all right, and usually it is very, very elections. most probably it will bring forth what need to come to the box, then the message that is the goss that death metal when we take a moment to level piece of process is not i don't seem to put it this way. so the danger to get kind of figured out pushing it to the site and we should bring it as soon as soon as possible. that's into the equation not being made in order to show what is the me showing. can you just give us an idea of

what you think is going to happen once the fighting is all over and done with how big a miss is big going to be left and guys are and do you think that is royal and other leaders in the region actually has a plan to deal with what whatever is left behind. all right, well, i mean festival, this is going to be profound destruction. we've a combined colleagues at the economist have looked at satellites images. and we estimate that around 10 percent of gauze, housing stock, residential housing stock has been destroyed. and we estimate that about 280000 people will be missing home. so there is a huge reconstruction challenge irrespective of what happens next. but in addition to that, there is a postwar governance challenge, which is to say that either honda says we can but not destroyed in which case it will still be present or will be destroyed. and that will have to be some kind of alternative arrangement, either that is the palestinian authority running the place. a coalition of arab and gulf countries providing some kind of assistance or other key,

a circumstance in which a mass, or even more violent, extreme splintered movements may find the latitude to establish themselves and conduct further attacks on israel. so a great deal depends on how the war ends, you know, if it ends like the other conflicts and then did with the sci fi a deal, and how much is being chastened, but it's still present. we may go back to normal, but otherwise we may face some more disordered situation. that is, it's characterized by a severe lack of government. sorry, we've only got about a minute or so left. just picking up on, on that point. do you think that you can even truly get rid of her mouse? i mean, surely there's a scenario that it could potentially come back even stronger, even more. radicalized to this scenario is the, on the, is there any table to, to take to mess up the tape, go to as an exit of this war, but unfortunately, that's would make it a very long boar. it's very hard. i think we tend to mask hope, hope ro,

thomas so power into cell that i'm 5. so i think there should be drawing of borders 1st for this, for to and for sustainable bees in the region and for sustainable security. drawing borders for both x rays and pals. time. okay. thank you so much. we really do appreciate all of your time and your insights from all of you. michael, how rights are kara? it's your son joe. she thank you so much for joining us. and thank you to for watching, you can see the program again any time by visiting a website else. is there a dot com? and for further discussion goes, well facebook page, that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. you can also join the conversation on x out handle is at a inside story. to me, tell mccrae and the whole team here. good bye for now the

the desktop rises and thousands of displaced. we report every angle of these radio long. gotcha. and we have just witness live, what it is really airway looks like innocent people have lots to live x plus a is reluctant to mean they need. there's no guarantee that they can come off the account has just been hit the we're cutting to the live pictures of the us presidential by system 5 knows known a presidential trip like this one at the roof of crossing. we just hit that is being constantly falling while humanitarian. it is waiting to come in state without a 0 for the latest updates and global reaction. thought provoking ons. but the patient doesn't have time to wait for the extremely unfortunate script. there are no quick wins and events or research hard hitting interviews. do you feel like america is the best thing to do since these days, or is it just a different full? i think the democracy in the process basically entities do you feel that the fraction is already starting the g 7 in the us on one side showing the end,

the brakes on the other. i think there is a huge piece of that to happen via the stores on talk to how does era, what happens in new york has implications all around the world. it's an international perspective with a human touch zooming way in and then pulling back out again. assassination is this is the stabilizing the democratic process we've, it was, it will be a loss for holding a documentary. explores how autocratic lead is undermine democracy, to consolidate the power through the eyes of those who dare to stand in defiance. a country deserves so much better than being ruled by a collector project succession. opposing we'll talk proceed. democracy may be on al jazeera. i'm, it's the world slow down. we stand for as homes, with tips of global nickel reserves. indonesia is points to leave the global,

better industry. we definitely manage our abundant resources and play a vital role in solar energy. harnessing offerings. 75 percent of global carbon credits essential. committed to environmental protection, enhancing investment climate, digital licensing, your better tomorrow. the . ready the so i'm fully back to this is in use our life from doha without continuing coverage of these routes on gas. coming up is around the target sconces largest refugee camp . more than a 100 kind of scenes, including women and children, are killed in multiple s 5 hundreds of injury to being taken to the indonesian

hospital which is sort of a switch at some being treated on the floor. and.