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hello welcome to the program. i'm toma cried is riley troops have and it goes from its north and east, and attends fighting is being reported between his riley soldiers and thomas spices . that's as this trip is being continuously bombarded, sofa more than $8300.00 palestinians have been killed. with that number rising all the time, this is the 1st time as well has launched the military offensive and the territory . this is its 5th since 2007 protests are being held around the world and support of the palestinians. and many fate of the conflict could spread through the region and beyond. so was possible. and what does israel seek to gain from its unprecedented boy on guns a? there's plenty to discuss without gifts, but 1st this report by sour gill that looks at as well as military actions and the history behind the, the bulls of fire have lifts up the sky above casa, every night since october, the 7th. but

a communications blackouts followed by one of israel's mice, for russia's, bombardments laid the foundations of its ground invasion. israel's prime minister benjamin netanyahu says he will not give into demands for cease by a. just as the united states would not agree to cease far after the bombing of pearl harbor, or after the terrorist attack of $911.00, israel will not agree to a cessation of hostilities with some us after the risk attacks of october 7. cause for seas, for a cause, for israel to surrender, to hum us to surrender to terror was the surrender to barbara's that will not happen is real fast occupied the gaza strip in 1967. and it's how the tight grip of a sense in 2005, it disengaged ordering due specialists to leave. but it is kept control of the lives of palestinians ever since. and in 2007,

impose the blockade of land at sea, often how much to control the territory from 5 to us. since 2008 is round, has repeatedly launch the tax on the densely populated area. so today is ready. tanks have been seen on one of the main roads in gaza, linking the north and south. they believed to be preparing to divide the strip of my says it spiked as a box spring is ready for that. but the people who live in gaza, they say no way it's safe. we don't, we close them. i don't think we have the sounds all the time they i'm by. we're supposed to be the we have each other. we both, both we both break up or about. this is the 5th cycle of violence and gaza in recent years. and it's even lead to increased fighting between is re forces and has block on the boat between 11 on and his route. it's fueling fees of

a wide conflict in the middle east and possibly beyond many a question is ralph makes if i'm what it may gain and lose by waging this unprecedented war on gaza. sorry, go the inside story. look at let's bring in august now and tell of is michael her ari policy fellow at the mentioned institute, a political think tank. he is also the form is rarely invested as a cypress. and the former counselor for political affairs at the embassy of israel in the united kingdom. and cairo is our occur founder and director of european north african center of research. and in london instructional in conjunction with the defense editor with the economist. thank you very much for being with us here on inside story, michael. if i could please begin with you. as our allstate goal is to wipe out to

mazda is both a militant group and a political force inside gaza. how realistic is that from? is a from and is riley point of view. it was going to be white and i think that's better . that's a bit. i mean, actually by pressing the guns clear, i don't know now after a certain incident, this is and what should be done, let's say i think the cost being that you've provided for all his relatives because previous to that, i mean we have different kinds of the lives or different kind of perceptions benefit, we may be able to get data from assets, etc, etc. and i think it'd be, it is why it's clear on the international law and the enough to be honest. i mean, it's my keep pressing the support for that is only and let's say, okay, so right now, oh not eh, i mean and not confuse our assessments in between the support of not enabling him

us any on to meant nothing today, but he did on the chief man, and a far as the be concerned about the solution. so i think it is going to be a very good, absolutely. back to back to be honest. okay. sorry. do you think that at this point in time that israel has a long term plan when it comes to an extended for as well. uh, i don't think as far as 10 uh, take on that very long floor especially that it's um, it's losing its diplomatic ties. it's losing its normalization steps. it's plus the decades of. so the diplomacy and integration in the region today with this whole start act is where it is making everything difficult for itself, not for anyone else. it's not the realistic, it's old because the country it,

it is read as a state in this region cannot practice these. and this kind of practices, especially that it's trying to be integrated. it's starting to win over neighbors. so it doesn't look realistic to lose decades of diplomacy isn't shushing. do you think that israel has potentially backed itself into a bit of a corner here by saying solely on after october, the statement that it was going to decimate him? us with a huge ground invasion is going to completely overwhelm is. do you think that now it could be potentially perceived as being weak if it doesn't follow through, on those threats that have made so really on here? yes, i should say is around never committed to a full scale ground invasion, but it didn't commit to the destruction. no harm us. and i think that that is a risk that it finds itself unable to do so in a reasonable timeframe. and it is worth remembering here that almost every previous

ground invasion of gaza has been roughly in the region of 2 weeks. when now seeing is randy officials talk about a war that may last for a few months. but if you think about the extent of how masses networking side gaza, the fact that they have been running goals are formally for 16 years. but of course their influence inside districts goes back a long way before that. this is going to be an exceptionally difficult military job . and unless they can, by themselves the diplomatic space to conduct military operations in gaza, probably for years to come. i think it's, it's not going to be realistic, but they can completely eliminate how nice is military and political presence. and therefore he will be back to some kind of situation in which they will be containing and managing. honda says, presents, rather than having destroyed it altogether at the end of muckle, what's your response to that? is there an appetite for the war foot for a full invasion? is there a service for revenge within israel?

and do you think that there is clouding any judgment in terms of the, the, the consequences of having a long drawn out war? i fully understand most about this, what's your most? i mean i say i'm in most of them is most of them. what i'm saying is that this is a different situation. this is not the as you round off for a fireman that you had in the last few fuel fuel. yes. every year you got an hour or 2. yes. let's say this is a different situation. i think it is why i emphasize data nowadays, it is very clear to you that this is what the bucket has to do now going to be enough to, i mean, the law process, but i don't think it's the less a month or yes. i mean, i don't, i don't to, let's accept any given statement by the way, but let's say yes it is correct. it's not a fan of the key is right and needs to be is roll like the middle. there are $2.00 a month after that. say the it by about i get, i passed by how mass to be honest,

i am still in the process by the, let's say, so far, strategic support. the agent itself as well. we and the pension and the price of domestically in each account to let's say, the whole probably competing out, let's say in the region, it goes down, i'll do my best space, but then it is a clear understanding. again, what i'm assessing to drop it, how much i know we, we always so, you know, i think it today, i missed it, but i look to see, you know, i cannot, i can look at it. this is, this is a point. it is a homeowner, i would say goal for somebody else. so instead of giving the okay, i just want to bring in a little bit more on this when we talk about the ground and vision because of before is ready trips into gums. i spoke with david to try it as a form of director of the us central intelligence agency,

about the risks that come with a ground invasion. here's what he had to say about this, or what would be an extraordinary late challenging scenario. it's hard to appreciate, in fact, how difficult this would be. we've discussed described it is fiendishly difficult. urban combat is always challenging, but when you add the presence of over $200.00 is really hostages. you add in a, an enemy who's willing to kill himself to take is really, is with them. a move into that, as you know, is founded on the idea of destroying israel and killing jews, as we saw saturday over a week ago with her risk murder, barbaric, and choose a over 1300 is released. and this would be a very, very challenging mission. keep in mind that it took the rocky security forces. 9 months to clear a similar city most, all of the islamic state, other terrorist elements. obviously,

extremes with support of the us. the is really, is, are much better. they have a lot more capability. well, that's clearly someone who knows a lot about ground invasions having been involved in the us and versions of iraq and afghanistan. she's having militarily, how difficult is this going to be for these riley troops to try and take the northern gaza with the extensive tunnel network that homos is going to as well. the answer is very difficult. and just to give you a sense of why, let's reflect on the fact that in 2014, during operation protective age, the last major israel goal is a conflict. the idea, as i understand it, took out about 32 kilometers all time as tunnels. as i understand that there's about 1300 kilometers of those tunnels across gauze. so that gives you an indication of how difficult that is. we can also compare this to all the comparable of in conflict. and if you look at the coalition effort to try to remove islamic state from most old back in 20162017. that was

a 9 months campaign on the ground, preceded by many months prior to that the best strikes. but still in could it caught costs very heavy civilian casualties. and it was conducted using a ground force of iraqi units who are able to benefit from western intelligence and western drugs in western and power. this is going to be a different kind of campaign. it's going to be a different campaign because the idea will have to do with itself. the idea is a conscript army. of course, a large number of those who been mobilized are not regular professionals. and it will have to do this on an accelerated time table, much more quickly than the coalition was able to do in muscle. so all in all this is going to be difficult even in relation to all of these extremely difficult and campaigns all for lu jr. ramadi muscle and many others, even by the stand it, it will be difficult. sorrow. we've all seen the civilian cost already,

and in the end, the week since october, the 7th, that is clearly only going to become worse once a full ground invasion is on the why isn't it a bull? ground evasion is sold to the a breach to humanity that if that's how exactly you see it, 1st of all, we refuse the comparison of your stomach stage to have mass event. if some of that kind of a countries that our countries are not getting along with hammers, but the comparison here is rejected, specially because this is a distance group we call high mass of assistance book because they fight for the civilians over guys that that's how we seat, the now all the era people who work again as a mass, now they are revolving around them. who do you think? did that? i think these really prime minister did that in corps,

iran and kind of as in the region, it doesn't have to be the folds of civilians today. it doesn't have to fall on the expense of forced to 4000 little kids. it doesn't have to be that way. we don't have to see the scenery. okay. if it's right and has more uh, uh, aspiration and expanding in the region that's also rejected evacuating the people from a land, a territory that the stairs already but all, and are they colonization of is raised? so that should be respect because there is international loading that part to protect civilians entre per tech is a ins, right? and to protect the neighbors, right. but it's very 1st has to jerome it's borders in order not to face this kind of conflicts again in the region this region doesn't need every, it should have hope cuz on the iranian action from the region and try to get like

a purchase that so yes, yes, michael, complicating this even further is the fact that there's more than 200 is ready to capt is being held by him. us somewhere in gaza. i mean do you think that that's a, that's a priority is right. i know a lot of family members of those being held outraged. it's a no more has been done. this is our priority plays that. but the, the only emphasize the complexity of this advice. i spend the day before yesterday and different the individual data, the families of the hostages, to doing their job goods as much as possible, all the government and the government civilians jumping over to release the field for our discussion. if the company case very much along with the organization in got that, how do you deal with the viewer to release them and to as

a matter of how much i want to buy the police to a few minutes ago. i don't know if examples, let's say, going to think about it. if i make it does not want to be up to bind to heart, got a stick. it did not say that if you can give a heavy that's a full brown population. it did not say so, in my opinion, it to me is that this process which really, let's say a lot, i have no idea how long it takes. we'd be able to get his them in the, by the metal bands. i brought in my notes on the game is, is not a fine to do is to exam restaurant as much as possible over how much by distinguishing the wrong defendant still gonna be. but it got us to be honest, us going get believe, you know, it's not enough for the successful i'm aware of this supplemental instability and kept track of this, let's say in gosh,

let's say in guthrie. but basically this is, is rarely bodies. no, i am 40. 0 wow. and 40 i was telling them that they had to be brought by this danielle study that is related all the region of please don't make mistakes, assignments statement, say the distinction, but reinstall the device to be on people. and to, let's say, i guess some, uh, yeah, it sort of understood, showing, as we saw on october the 7th, as well as military and intelligence. i had a mess of 5. yes. and they said that they were even embarrassed by how easy it was for a mouse to go across the board. do you think that israel's army has been overestimated? ends on the other side of that, do you think that a ground defensive actually plays into a mazda as hands because obviously it doesn't have tanks or any will planes,

but it can fight straight to street building to building tunnel to tunnel. yes, the festival, i think that all old countries are at risk of intelligent society is it does happen to all countries. it happened to the united states on $911.00. it is happened to european countries with terrorism in the last last 5 to 10 years. even ukraine itself was surprised by the russian attack being discounted american intelligence. but it is nevertheless, the case. but these are all defense forces remain the most technologically sophisticated and well trained on force in the middle east. you may like them, you may despise them, but that's, that's a professional assessment about that proficiency on the ground. but nonetheless, i think you're absolutely right to say that certain types of invasions can play into the hands of thomas the name of terrorism. notwithstanding my colleagues reference to having us as a resistance group, the name of terrorism is the strategic use of violence. it is sometimes designed to

provoke a response that can wear some conditions for civilians in an area by dragging you know, i mean, and by creating political conditions that favor the tire restore organization. that is, what we saw from al qaeda is what we have seen from other groups. and it could be what we see from time a. so while my view is know on force in the well, but stand by off to the kind of massacre that we saw on october 7th. and it is entirely understandable the israel meets the weekend and the great honda so that it cannot repeat that kind of massacre if it were to be sucked into gaza in an open ended occupation. i think that the risk, as we have seen in some previous, is rarely conflicts like that in lebanon. and the 1980s is that it creates political conditions that may perversely stay behind us. and i think no is rarely official. would really say that no end date. so there's also a risk of this splitting b on gaza. and israel isn't there because there's been

a lot of talk about contagion about this being bright, breaking out into a wider war around his blah. and now potentially human getting more and more involved. how big concern is that? and that's what nobody wants. that's what no country or stage in this region of the world helps for. but that's it. but it's, it's, it's really weird how the west sees things or is raised bar to an hour part. we see that there's a lot of injustice here. guys what was under siege. and then there is, is some political disputes in israel and then all of this revenge comes out on the guys the people just after mass oak ration again is a, the is really government which was an operation that is not equal to such huge invasion. and no one was and said to be a region of war taking more of the, of our resources more people's lives. no one wants that. but that,

that fear might come if it continues like that because no one can know it's because the way you would, when would they get involved, then we kind of know that the kind of eager for it. okay, so the piece and not to drag this region down to to, to more fire and bring funding. i'm up, i don't know what, what are we waiting for more involvement from other countries and, and, and, and to save how to save days, ready for our minister to say though, i'm the expensive people me and it doesn't make any sense to me on the expensive of human lives. so is there is raised as a state, as people that we do respect people, a human kind everywhere should get done with that and with their government. and i say that yes. okay. michael, just after all the fighting has finished. this is well actually have

a plan for what happens next doesn't want to occupying gaza. doesn't want to try and displace the millions of people that will still be occupying that land. i think just the thing to put it as clear as possible that say this is not an invasion, is it submitted to the location? and as i said the but this is what happens next. what happens off to the invite? yeah, yes, yes, absolutely, absolutely. yes, i think is successful enough, let's say then it should be possible the how my office already and to to replace it with the legitimate i those. okay. but i still have the problem. clearly it wouldn't need that. they should not be the other clearly, it wouldn't need that. and so not an international insight, environmental. and so, and hopefully we can, we can, you can reach this point, but i want to mention one more, eh, what about the lack of peace process?

is what i understand, it's not tragically. okay, that's a little piece process. let's nickel when we come back and that's a momentum is a create, a kind of mistake. nowadays we have an emergency government. i don't know what happens asked of a lot. all right, and usually it is random elections. most probably it will bring forth but need to content and bypass the message. it's easily, i've got that data medical when we take a moment to level piece of process is not i don't see to put it this way. so that means you're pushing it to the site and we should bring it as soon as soon as possible. it's into the equation not being made in order to show what does that me. sure, sure. and can you just give us an idea. ready of what you think is going to happen once the fighting is all over and done with how big a miss is. big going to be left and guys are and do you think that is rile and

other leaders in the region actually has a plan to deal with what whatever is left behind. all right, well i mean festival, this is going to be profound destruction. we've a combined colleagues at the economist have looked at satellites images, and we estimate that around 10 percent of goals of housing stock, residential housing stock has been destroyed. and we estimated about 280000 people will be missing home. so there is a huge reconstruction challenge, their respective off, whatever happens next. but in addition to that, there is a postwar governance challenge, which is to say that either honda says we can but not destroyed in which case it will still be present or it will be destroyed. and that will have to be some kind of alternative arrangement, either that is the palestinian authority running the place. a coalition of arab and gulf countries providing some kind of assistance or other key, a circumstance in which a mass, or even more violent, extreme splintered movements may find the latitude to establish themselves and

conduct further attacks on his route. so a great deal depends on how the war ends. you know, if it ends like the other conflicts, it ended with a c, a 5, a deal. and how much is being chastened, but it's still present. we may go back to normal, but otherwise we may face some more disordered situation. there is a, it's characterized by a severe lack of government. sorry, we've only got about a minute or so left. just picking up on, on that point. do you think that you can have a truly get rid of a mouse? i mean, surely there's a scenario that it could potentially come back even stronger, even more. radicalized to this scenario is the, on the, is there any table to, to take to mess up the tape, go to as an exit of this war, but unfortunately, that's would make it a very long boar. it's very hard. i think we tend to mass on hope, bro, time as to power in 2005. so i think there should be drawing of borders 1st for this, for to and for sustainable bees in the region and for sustainable security. drawing

borders for both x rays and pals. time. okay. thank you so much. we really do appreciate all of your time and your insights from all of you. michael, how rights are kara? it's your son joe. she thank you so much for joining us. and thank you to for watching, you can see the program again any time by visiting a website else. is there a dot com? and for further discussion goes, well facebook page, that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. you can also join the conversation on x out handle is at a inside story. to me, tell mccrae and the whole team here. good bye for now. the a thought provoking ons, but the patient doesn't have time to wait for the extremely unfortunate. there are no quick wins and events or research od hitting interviews. do you feel like

america is the best thing to do since these days, or is it just a different full? i think the democracy in the process basically entities do you feel that the fraction is already starting the g 7 in the us on one side showing the and the brakes on the other? i think there is a huge piece of that to happen via the story on talk to how does era i'm charles don's. you want to ration for hindsight, dramatize to put cost from i'll just here to invest hayes and re here from some of history's dogs notable women, unconventional and extraordinary office. i am 40 that god of the communist revolution of everyone in china, new my state. you've heard all of them power it's time you have from these and 6 of hindsight is out now subscribe wherever you listen to pop cast and this is a region that is logically develop thing, but it's one also that is afflicted by conflict. police, perhaps we try to balance the stories, the good, the bad, i think,

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join us and let's discover a better world expo 2023. the the hello that i'm just gonna tell you this isn't use our line from door from coming up in the next 16 minutes. israel target's cause of largest refuge account pulled in a 100 palestinians including women and children and additional sorry. so you say that the roof of crossing will be open to allow 81 injured palestinians to leave costs of treatment face to face.