world i cover foreign policy, national security, this is very much a political em. how, here's the conflict. how do we, or crated, are we telling the good story? people? yeah. what we're trying to do here. they're living outside and make shift time. this is not the way any family wants to raise their children. we're really interested in taking you into a place that you might not visit otherwise. it's actually feel as if you were there as, as well as she did. subjective is fine. launching was on cancer for decades. it has phones, the strip and lied staged palestinians their talents carrying out get another boy on a scale. never seen before but will it serve as rows purposes? this is inside story. the

hello welcome to the program. i'm toma cried is riley, troops have and it goes from its north and east, and intensifying thing is being reported between is riley soldiers and homos fighters. that's as this trip is being continuously bombarded. so far more than 8300 palestinians have been killed with that number rising all the time. this is not the 1st time as well has launched the military offensive and the territory. this is its 5th since 2007 protests being held around the world and support of the palestinians. and many fate of the conflict could spread through the region and beyond. so was possible, and what does israel seek to gain from its unprecedented boy on guns a there's plenty to discuss without guess. but 1st, this report by sour gill that looks at as well as military actions and the history behind the. the bulls of fire have lifts up the sky above garza every night since october, the 7th. but a communications blackouts,

followed by one of israel's most ferocious bombardments laid the foundations of its ground invasion. israel's prime minister benjamin netanyahu says he will not give into the mines for cease by a just as the united states would not agree to cease far after the bombing of pearl harbor. or after the terrorist attack of $911.00. israel will not agree to association of our facilities with some us after the risk attacks of october 7. cause for a cease for a cause for israel to surrender, to come us to surrender to terrorism. the surrender to barbara's that will not happen is real fast occupied the gaza strip in 1967. and it's how the tight grip ever since. in 2005, it disengaged ordering jewish. that's list to leave. but it is kept control of the lives of palestinians ever since. and in 2007,

impose the blockade of land at sea. often how much to control the territory from 5 to us. since 2008 is around has repeatedly launch the tax on the densely populated area. so today is ready. tanks have been seen on one of the main roads in gaza, linking the north and south. they believed to be preparing to divide the strength of my says it spiked as a box spring is ready for it. but the people who live in gaza, they say no way is safe. within less than 3, it goes from something we have the sounds all the time they i'm by we'd like to bid the we have each other. we both both. we both break up. what about this is the 5th cycle of violence and gaza in recent years. and it's even lead to increased fighting between is re forces and has black on the boat between 11 on and

as well. it's fueling phase of the why the conflict in the middle east and possibly beyond many a question is rouse, makes if i'm what it may gain and lose by waging this unprecedented war on gaza. sorry, go the inside story. look at let's bring it out just now and tell of is michael her ari policy fellow at the mentioned institute, a political think tank. he is also the form is rarely invested as a cypress, and the former counselor for political affairs at the embassy of israel in the united kingdom. in cairo is our occur founder and director of european north african center of research. and in london instructional in conjunction with the defense editor with the economist. thank you very much for being with us here on inside story, michael. if i could please begin with you. as are all state,

the goal is to wipe out him, aust has both the militant group and the political force inside gaza. how realistic is that from? is a from and is riley point of view. i was going to be waiting. i think that's better than being asked today by pressing the guns clear. i don't know now after a certain incident, this is and what should be done, let's say i think it because clear in the 11th floor all these red is because previous to that, i mean, we have different kinds of lives or different kind of perceptions benefit. we may be able to get data from assets, etc, etc. and i think it big, it is why it's clear on the international not, and the not to be honest. i mean, it's my keep pressing. the simple to florida is only and let's say open additional right now. oh, not a i mean not confuse our assessments in between the support of not enabling him

us any on to minute, not in the in the chief man. and as far as the be concerned about the solution. so i think it is going to be in today. absolutely. back to back to be honest. okay. sorry. do you think that at this point in time that israel has a long term plan when it comes to an extended for as well. uh, i don't think as far as can uh, j calling that very long floor, especially that it's um, it's losing its diplomatic ties. it's losing its normalization steps. it's plus the decades of social diplomacy and integration in the region today with this whole start act is where it is making everything difficult for itself. not for anyone else. it's not to realistic at all because the country, it, it is read as

a state in this region cannot practice this. and this kind of practices, especially that it's trying to be integrated. it's starting to win over neighbors. so it doesn't look realistic to lose decades of diplomacy isn't shushing. do you think that israel has potentially backed itself into a bit of a corner here by saying so early on after october, the statement that it was going to decimate him, us with a huge ground invasion is going to completely overwhelm us. do you think that now it could be potentially perceived as being weak if it doesn't follow through, on those threats that it made? so really on here. yes, i should say is around never committed to a full scale ground invasion, but it didn't commit to the destruction doha mass. and i think that that is a risk that it finds itself unable to do so in a reasonable timeframe. and it is worth remembering here that almost every previous

ground invasion of garza has been roughly in the region of 2 weeks. when now seeing is randy officials talk about a wall that may last for a few months. but if you think about the extent of harnesses, networking side, gaza, the fact that they have been running goals are formally for 16 years. but of course their influence inside districts goes back a long way before that. this is going to be an exceptionally difficult military job . and unless they can, by themselves the diplomatic space to conduct military operations in gaza, probably for years to come. i think it's, it's not going to be realistic, but they can completely eliminate how nice is military and political presence. and therefore he will be back to some kind of situation in which they will be containing and managing. honda says, presents, rather than having destroyed it altogether at the end of muckle, what's your response to that? is there an appetite uh football foot for a full invasion? is there a service for revenge with an israel?

and do you think that there is clouding any judgment in terms of the, the, the consequences of having a long drawn out war? i fully understand the these say, what's the most, i mean i say i'm in most of them is most of them. what i'm saying is that this is a different situation. this is not the as you around off the vitamins that you had in the last few fuel fuel. yes. every year you got an hour or 2? yes. let's say this is a different situation. i think it is why i emphasize data nowadays, it's very clear to you that this is what the fuck it has to do the i mean, the law process, but i don't think the big left the mouth or yes. i mean, i don't, i don't to the, to accept any given statement by the way that let's say, yes, it is correct inside, outside of the key is right and needs to be, is homeless. the middle of the dog, almost a month after that said be it by about i get i passed by how my eyes to be homeless

. i am still in as buying the that's a lot of strategic support of the region itself as well. we and dropped off a pencil and a lot of pressure domestically in each account to let's say, at a whole probably competing out, let's say in the region. it goes down. i don't think my desperation, but there is a clear understanding again. but in assessing the dog and how much now we, we always succeed. i think it should be a nice day, but i'm not seeing it. no, i cannot. i cannot get it. this is upstairs. but if you're on the home, on the same goal or for somebody else, so instead of giving the okay, i just want to bring in a little bit more on this when we talk about the ground invasion. because a before is ready trips into gums. i spoke with david to try as a former director of the us central intelligence agency,

about the risks that come with a ground invasion. here's what he had to say about this. what would be an extraordinary late, challenging scenario? it's hard to appreciate. in fact, how difficult this would be we've discussed described it is fiendishly difficult. urban combat is always challenging, but when you add the presence of over $200.00 is really hostages. you add in a, an enemy who's willing to kill himself to take. so is really, is with them a movement that as you know, is founded on the idea of destroying israel and killing jews, as we saw saturday over a week ago with her risk murder, barbaric and exclusive. over $1300.00 is released. and this would be a very, very challenge you mentioned keep in mind that it took the rocky security forces 9 months to clear a similar city most, all of the islamic state, other terrorist elements, obviously, extremist,

with support of the us. the is really, is, are much better. they have a lot more capability. but that's clearly someone who knows a lot about the ground invasions having been involved in the us and versions of iraq and afghanistan. she's having, militarily, how difficult is this going to be for these riley troops to try and take the northern gaza with the extensive tunnel network that her mazda is going to as well . the answer is very difficult. and just to give you a sense of why, let's reflect on the fact that in 2014, during operation protective age, the last major israel goal is a conflict. the idea, as i understand it, took out about 32 kilometers all time as tunnels. as i understand that there's about 1300 kilometers of those tunnels across garza. so that gives you an indication of how difficult that is. we can also compare this to all the comparable oven conflict. and if you look at the coalition effort to try to remove these linux, stayed from most old back in 20162017. that was

a 9 months campaign on the ground, preceded by many months prior to the strikes. but still in could it called costs very heavy civilian casualties. and it was conducted using a ground force of iraqi units who are able to benefit from western intelligence and western drugs in western and power. this is going to be a different kind of campaign. it's going to be a different campaign, because the adf will have to do with itself. the idea is a conscript army. of course, the large number of those who been mobilized are not regular professionals. and it will have to do this on an accelerated time table, much more quickly than the coalition was able to do in muscle. so all in all this is going to be difficult even in relation to all of these extremely difficult and campaigns all for lu jr. ramadi muscle and many others, even by the stand it, it will be difficult. sorrow with the old saying that the civilian cost already and

in the end the week since october, the 7th, that is clearly only going to become worse once a full ground invasion is on the why isn't it a bull? ground evasion is totally a breach to humanity. that is, that's how exactly you see it. first of all, we refuse the comparison of your stomach state to have mass, even if some of that kind of a countries. but our countries are not getting along with how much, but the comparison here is rejected, specially because this is distance group we call high mass of resistance quote, because they fight for the civilians of the guys that that's how we state. because it now, all the era people who work again is how mass now they are revolving around them. who do you think? did that? i think these really prime minister did that. hey, in corps,

iran and haven't passed in the region. it doesn't have to be the folds of civilians today. it doesn't have to fall on the expense of forced to 4000 little kids. it doesn't have to be that way. we don't have to see the scenery. okay. if it's right and has more uh, uh, aspiration and expanding in the region that's also rejected evacuating the people from a land, a territory that the stairs already but all, and are they a colonization of is raised? so that should be respect because there is international loading that part to protect civilians entre protect is a right and to protect the neighbors. right. but it's very 1st has to jerome it's borders in order not to face this kind of conflicts again in the region. this region doesn't mean every, it should have hope cuz on the iranian actions from the origin and try to get like

a purchase that so yes, yes, michael, of complicating this even further is the fact that there's more than $200.00 is ready to capt is being held by him, us somewhere in gaza. i mean do you think that that's a, that's a priority is right. i know a lot of family members of those being held outraged. it's a no more has been done. this is our priority for exam, but the, the only emphasize the complexity of this advice i spend the day before yesterday and different things, the better the families of the hospital doing their job with as much as possible. all the government and the government civilians jumping over to release the field for our discussion. if the company case very much along with the organization in government, how do you deal with the viewer to release them and to as

a matter of how much i want to better please. to a comment on examples, let's say going to think about your front of me and it does not want to be up to bind to hard gather it did not say that if you can give a heavy that's a full brown population. it did not say so, in my opinion, it to me is that this process which really, let's say it all and i have no idea how long face will be already. it has them in the, by the metal bands on the ground and not on the game is not a fine to do is to exactly restaurant as much as possible over how much by distinguishing the wrong defendant still gonna be. but it got us to be honest, us going to believe, you know, it's not enough for the successful i'm aware of this supplemental and civilian kept track of these, let's say in the,

let's say in guthrie. but basically this is, is really policy. now i am for a while and for the best thing to be brought by this danielle. certainly that is related all the region of please don't make mistakes assignment statement, but they the distinction. but to me is telling me that i do with device to be on people and to, let's say, i guess some, uh, yeah, i'm sorry, it be understood. it's just showing, as we saw on october the 7th, as well as military and intelligence. i had a mess of 5 years. some said that they were even embarrassed by how easy it was. but i'm us to go across the board. do you think that israel's army has been overestimated? ends on the other side of that, do you think that a ground defensive actually plays into a mazda is hands, because obviously it doesn't have tanks or any will appliance,

but it can fight straight to street building to building tunnels the tunnel? yes, the festival, i think that all old countries are at risk of intelligent societies. it does happen to all countries that happened to the united states on $911.00. it is happened to european countries with terrorism in the last last 5 to 10 years. even ukraine itself was surprised by the russian attack being discounted american intelligence. but it is nevertheless, the case. but these are all defense forces remain the most technologically sophisticated and well trained on force in the middle east. you may like them, you may despise them, but that's, that's a professional assessment about that proficiency on the ground. but nonetheless, i think you're absolutely right to say that certain types of invasions can play into the hands of how mass the name of terrorism. notwithstanding my colleagues reference time asked as a resistance group, the name of terrorism is the strategic use of violence. it is sometimes designed to

provoke a response, but can wesson conditions for civilians in an area by dragging on e n a. and by creating political conditions that favor the tire restore organization, that is what we saw from al qaeda is what we have seen from all the groups. and it could be what we see from honda. so while my view is know on force in the well, could stand by off to the kind of massacres that we saw on october 7th. and it is entirely understandable the israel needs to weaken and degrade high mass so that it cannot repeat that kind of massacre um, if it were to be sucked into gaza in an open ended occupation. i think that the risk, as we have seen in some previous, has really conflicts like that in lebanon in the 1980s is that it creates political conditions that may perversely stay behind us. and i think no is rarely official, would really say that no end date. so there's also a risk of this splitting b on gaza. and israel isn't there because there's been

a lot of talk about contagion about this being bright, breaking out into a wider war around his blah and dad. now potentially human getting more and more involved. how big concern is that to that's what nobody wants. that's what no country or stage in this region of the world helps for. but that's what it's it's, it's really weird how the west sees things or is raised bar to an hour part. we see that there's a lot of injustice here. guys, what was under siege, and then there is, is some political disputes in israel and then all of this revenge comes out on the guys the people just after her mass oak ration again is a, the is really government which was an operation that is not equal to such huge invasion and no one was and so to be a region of war taking more of the, of our resources more people's lives. no one wants that. but that,

that fear might come if it continues like that because no one can know it. because the way you do it, when would they get involved? and we kind of know that the kind of eager for it. okay, so how does the piece and know drag this region down to to, to more fire and bring funding? i'm, i don't know what, what are we waiting for more involvement from other countries and, and, and, and to save how to save days, ready for our minister to save oh, on the expensive people. me. and it doesn't make any sense on the expensive of human lives. so is there is raised as a state, as people that we do respect people, a human kind everywhere should get done with that and with their government. and i say that yes. okay. michael, just after all the fighting has finished. this is where i'll actually have

a plan for what happens next doesn't want to occupied. gaza doesn't want to try and displace the millions of people that will still be occupying that land. i think that's the thing to do as clearly as possible that say this is not an invasion. is it submitting to the location? and as i said the but this is what happens next. what happens after the invite? yeah, yes, yes, absolutely, absolutely. yes, i think is successful enough, let's say then it should be possible the how my office already be and to to replace it with the legitimate address. okay. but i still have the problem. clearly it wouldn't need to be the other clearly it wouldn't need that. and so not an international insight, environmental and so, and, and hopefully we can, we can, you can reach this point, but i want to mention one more, eh, blunt, about the lack of peace process is what i understand. it's not tragically.

okay, that's a little piece of process. let metal for me because that's the momentum is it creates a kind of a stake. nowadays we have an emergency government. i don't know what happens. i've got a lot. all right, and usually it is random elections. most probably it will bring forth but need to contact his boss. then the message is that got that data back off. when we take a moment, the level piece of process is not, i don't seem to put it this way. so that means you're looking kind of figure out what's in the site and we should bring it as so as soon as possible, it's into the equation not being in may even in order to show what is that goodness . mm. sure, sure. and can you just give us an idea of what you think is going to happen once the fighting is all over and done with how big a miss is big going to be left and guys are and do you think that is rile and other

leaders in the region actually has a plan to deal with what, whatever is left behind. all right, well, i mean festival. this is going to be profound destruction. we've a combined colleagues at the economist have looked at satellites images. and we estimate that around 10 percent of gauze, housing stock, residential housing stock has been destroyed. and we estimated about 280000 people will be missing home. so there is a huge reconstruction challenge irrespective of what happens next. but in addition to that, there is a postwar governance challenge, which is to say that either honda says we can but not destroyed in which case it will still be present or will be destroyed. and that will have to be some kind of alternative arrangement, either that is the palestinian authority running the place. a coalition of arab and gulf countries providing some kind of assistance or other key, a circumstance in which a mass, or even more violent, extreme splintered movements may find the latitude to establish themselves and

conduct further attacks on his route. so a great deal depends on how the war ends. you know, if it ends like the other conflicts, it ended with a c 5, a deal. and how much is being chastened, but it's still present. we may go back to normal, but otherwise we may face some more disordered situation. that is, characterized by a severe lack of government. sorry, we've only got about a minute or so left just picking up on on that point. do you think that you can even truly get rid of her mouse? i mean, surely there's a scenario that it could potentially come back even stronger, even more. radicalized to this scenario is the on the, is there any table to, to take to mess at this tape? go to as an exit of this war, but unfortunately that's would make it a very long boar. it's very hard. i think we tend to mass on hope bro, time as to power in 2005. so i think there should be drawing of borders 1st for this, for to and for sustainable bees in the region and for sustainable security drawing

borders for both x rays and pals time. okay, thank you so much. we really do appreciate all of your time and your insights from all of you. michael, how rights are kara? it's your son joe. she thank you so much for joining us and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website else, is there a dot com? and for further discussion goes, well facebook page, that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. you can also join the conversation on x. i'll handle is at a inside story. to me, tell mccrae and the whole team here. good bye for now the . it does have been some fold. we cover every single one of these waiting. oh gosh. why would is real vent crossing is really deputy

foreign minister. he thinks that the rules of the game has changed a mazda israel steps is forming, that it will certainly look at the least of more of these captives. what you might have to drag, are you telling view is faulty? i us, experts on bison wrong only have to do is look up to you and schools in gaza. why are you looking up? i'm i am hearing something as to jerome. i believe it's right over our heads. stay close to the story. without you 0. we understand the differences and similarities of cultures across the world. so no matter how you take it will bring you the news and current affairs that matter to you. asking questions, how is the community after the sy fi? hearing the facts. this is the legacy of colonialism. understanding the reality. we're closing from the section. it's a race against trying to find people to try to bubble with seeing this

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israel is latest target dollars as not just refugee count kidding. more than 100 innocent civilians. many of them children the terri johnston. this is houses that are not all set hundreds of inches of being taken to a gun system, denisia and hospital, which is overwhelmed on the edge of collapse. egypt says it will open the raft, crossing in southern guns that.