it was found down the hill that and they all these guys being shot in the chest with detailed coverage telling you this was where causes palestinians fled to now is ready. tanks of pushed into the heart of southern causes main cities to see this gen and as a great amount of people crowded in very slow areas and without any wider. and the last page has no human is terry and a s o. the red sea is one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world. but now who's the fighters from the in, in or attacking vessels? forcing major companies to we round operations? how will this impact global trade and what can be done to secure the red sea? this is inside store the

serial. then you're welcome to the program, the ripple effect of israel's war on guns that is causing a maritime crisis in the red sea. one that may have major implications for the global economy and trade, iranian back tooth. these have been carrying out a tax on commercial vessels. the fighters say that they are targeting ships linked to israel in protest against the war in gaza. as a result, several major firms have suspended operations into strategic we important waterway . the united states has announced the coalition task force to respond to the attacks. but how effective will that be and what impact will the disruptions have on the global economy? we'll discuss all this with our guests after this report by victoria getting the commercial ship sondra tied to buy uranium back to the fighters. and one of the world's most important shipping lanes. since the world gauze has started moving 2 months to 2 phase of use missiles and drains to attack vessels, they say a supplying israel. at least 12 shipping companies,

including denmark's musk an oil giant, b, p, have suspended operations in the red sea because of safety concerns. this is not and he's really tried problem. this is a global trade problem. the attacks of very, very wide ranging that taking in ships from all different types of flag, and have a potentially very, very serious consequences for survivors from all around the world. the conflict dissented around a crucial maritime car, dual connecting europe and the mediterranean to asia. 12 percent of global trade passes through it. avoiding the red sea and taking a longer route around, the southern tip of africa increases travel time and drives up prices. the costs of the fuel, the costs of increased insurance, and the fact that the ships and the containers are then out of place. this disruption, just escalate spoilers. that means that the costs for consumers are going to increase in an effort to prevent further attacks. the us secretary of defense lloyd

austin, announced the formation of a multinational naval task force to patrol the red sea during his visit to israel on monday. these attacks are reckless, dangerous, and they violate international law. and so we're taking action to build an international coalition to address this threat. and i would remind you that this is not just a us issue is this is an international problem and it deserves an international response. and the who sees accused the coalition of military rising the sea and say it will not stop the naval operations, which aim to support palestinians. and confronting is really aggression, all of which risks pushing the region into further turmoils, victoria gates and b for inside story. that's bringing our guess now in the onto a is to measure know a non resident fellow at the center center for strategic studies in brussels. is

james moran, a former you ambassador to egypt, jordan indian and in plymouth, established commons, but reduced a lecture in maritime economics. at the university of plymouth, and head of the maritime transport research group. thank you. the gentleman for joining established 1st question goes to you, how much damage does this do to global trade as well? okay. say to the, not the $1000000.00 question. i'm not the one, but here's the question. first of all, thanks for how many people here. it's a great honor to be as, as really discussing as long as the integrated, fucked up we're trying to cover the covers to a very important topic for the oil change. uh, it has to be done as you know, if we go by community 2 years ago as your management before, the brokerage of this just come out back in march 2021. and from the eighty's on a daily basis, we have 9500000000 of trait bossing. so as you can imagine, the thought is causing a lot of impact to the overall trade,

the global trade. and he's also increasing the links on the journey. so it's approximately 10 extra days for, for versus kind of the goods from agent to unit and buy thoughts. we're having more costs in terms of the transportation of the goods. and of course it going to be more due late. so as you can imagine, doug has a huge the point of view overall supply chains are you able to so that our viewers can, can get a concrete sense of what this means for them for the consumer. this means that you're going to have energy, consumer goods that are stuck on ships for an extra 2 weeks compared to what was scheduled. how much does that drive up the costs of everything that's on that ship, for instance? and it's kind of difficult to give you a number now because seems like we have to see 1st phone call. the phrase rates are going to react. we've seen them increasing. we also seen the only price getting a bit of increase because of that, i think the, all their own situation escalates, inconvenienced like that. and then we're going to see an increase in both in new york and, and also because as we know, nearly 50 percent that we will punish,

not expenditure of the vessels is always going to be on goes up the train page. we go up by definition, and we also classified them told vs the whole year this time. so that means that the, all the transportation of the goods is going to be more lengthy, marked, more delayed depending of course, on the fighters sector software. and so you're talking about containers inside the screen doing please allow that 10 days as we send them by the good news is that we're in the christmas season. so it's going to be capacity of the system on the be either side. the thing for us that sort by guess that's not going to be the case because by his we're ready as always and saying that's going to push faster, increasing the freight rates for portfolio. so, you know, we have to see those specific segments and we'll give you and i can either get number but the others. can you please about the timing of this? when would we expect to actually see the difference in price? as you said, because this is the christmas season, there's capacity in the, in the markets. um,

does that mean that what in january or would it be february when you start seeing the price increase really hit consumers? and to, to be frank view, you have to consider the weight for talking about the container. so the moment the means outside, you know, the goods of each or different christmas. they have been already delivered. united, the 19th of december is couple days before christmas. so everything is kind of been delivered, so we're sending to those the quiet season, january and february is the quiet the season. so that means there is capacity in the container sector to observe any kind of extra need, of course, after you know, and we have to think in the lead time, you know, when you're placing an order at, it takes nearly $25.00 days to come from age it to you, so we have to consider that the winning that trade is going to be great because it, after advertising is new year, we're just going to be around end of february and things like that. and then eventually it just start picking up again. and it means that the orders were going to place late january. that's going to come on on a 2nd, including a shipping. while we're going to see more of this, of course, we're going to see

a small increase in the over afraid rate because of the additional costs, the us a sense for the traveling a bit for the transportation of the goods. but i think after february march, we're going to see how big it effect is to be over associates and conditions, which i hope it wouldn't. okay, i'm with you. and that's really interesting. and this is just a reminder that due to the nature of how this works, there is by definition, a lag in between the time when there's a disruption in the supply chain, such as what we're seeing now in the, in the southern red sea. and the moment when the, the end consumers will actually feel it. and that is good to know at the outset of this conversation, to my, what is the in the game for the who with these here i'm getting all the big questions out of the way at the top of the show. that's a difficult question to answer. also because the who sees are not very transparent, we don't know exactly what it is they're trying to do. but generally speaking, we can say that there's a number of objectives that they have. one of them has got to be domestic and any

media conversations, we focus a lot on the regional or strategic dimension. but there's also a domestic dimension. the court fees have the fact the one the civil war and yet, but not completely, but in practice they have, there are now the defacto governing authority in the capital in the north west. they control something like 60 percent of the population they've want. now they are trying to move into a bit of a postwar face. they are in discussions with saudi arabia to formalize the saudi withdrawal. that post or face will be challenging for the course. easily economy is a mess that with use of shown to be abysmal managers of the economy. so one aspect here that we do have to keep in mind is that they're probably trying to mobilize pro palestinian feeling within the of any population that is under their control. but also in parts of the country that they don't control, that has to be an objective. but beyond the domestic element, there is also significant the regional regional element having what the civil war and you have been with these feel very much. and bolden and they want to establish

themselves as a regional power, and we see that in their relations with saudi arabia into you we, we see that in the uh, sending this solves and drawing a tax on israel and also now on the red sea. so ultimately, i think we have to combine both the regional and the domestic element. okay, we're going to dig into that with james. and by the way, in this conversation, we're going to ping pong, obviously, between the effects on trade and the, the regional implications. because because obviously these 2 are connected is the who these ability to strangle the trade in the red sea, which is such an important waterway as we, as we laid out at the top of the show, which gives them this importance regionally. and which could have regional consequences. and that my question about james is my question to you with this us led coalition. now the, in, in the red sea, it already was, you know, the us, 5th sleep was, is based in bahrain. so they were around there. but are we moving now closer to a regional war? i'm not sure about that, but i take, um,

i will have to, uh, have to watch it very carefully on the monster. com. um, but this is a national maritime cooperation. uh, it is interesting. it's not the 1st time we seen it on the gulf of a and in the bicycles. we had the operations against some of the pirates, which turned out to be successful in there. and it was the european, the operation of the land. and i'll be trying is joined in a pretty significant way. and i suspect the idea of the outreach at the moment is going to not in new york in congress golf congress, the whole set of china, which has a big interest in calming down things in the right. so you give them the enormous trade, other flows through that to your peer and markets and vice versa. so have a strong interest coming from a lot of different parts of the area. should also mentioned egypt a cost which is a risk losing my job. my cheated foreign exchange revenues from the so is cut off. so ownership, so being set around, advocate for good. how?

so a combination of interest areas is pretty strong against the actions of who doesn't take on the exception of course. is it wrong around being a big so far the, which is the main office supply to the coaches and also is the interest probably in uh, snaring these tablets ation of the region, governors position, israel and so on. but the overwhelming interest seems to me to be a common one, and i think we're going to say you're quite a lot of action now, not just from the west. and also maybe from the agent side to you mentioned around what is the level of involvement that they have and who is the operations specifically and who these, you know, putting so much military pressure on this shipping late. yeah, i mean that's certainly been an important factor military, but we shouldn't imagine that which is all of the creatures wrong there does have their own agenda for reason is also

a well laid out by your previous speak of the domestically very keen to consolidate the position of the population out of that takes and the right hands off in an alliance with them. yes, there is the she a connection between the 2 very different branches of the shadow wasn't tight. so that shouldn't be ever done either. so yes, i mean, the rest of the, there was a call of interest with the wrong, but the wrong doesn't necessarily control about that, which is do, okay. you say there's a conversions of interest. this next question goes to several us, if there's a convergence of interest. so many people and this makes intuitive sense. so many countries have an interest in this waterway, remaining safe and shield in from who the attacks. and that's why the us so set up this multinational force, is it possible? is it possible to shield their given that there are 20000 ships to pass through this? um, uh the, the,

this uh naval car door every year. is it possible to shield them from who's the at that with the, with the coalition as it's been set up? that's i'm, you know, that's a, that's an operational question. you know me tell people and to be honest, i'm not coming up kind of background, but i'll try to draw assets from previous experience as a james, that being mentioned, there were some places on that from the anti piracy effort. so exactly, that's what i was going to do. you know, the weight we had the nation and the natal seals down there wouldn't be minus 2. i talked to the piracy in so many uh, and it was a very successful operation. i have to say. and, and i think that's, you know, and less than what we can get from the overpaid too much like, you know, each, the congress come together and come and talk yet. i think let's see if that's so i, i don't know kind of will patiently put these in or the main, these are all right and how capable the but i'm sitting, you know, if you know, our congress like the you, as a,

you case pain. and also signed as we share that with you on the test join in the past. but kind of times and you know, times government has mentioned several times. it's a on its interest to maintain all the theories open for global trade, because we know the china causes the nickname of the global factory. so they really want to be able to send all that goes. i don't know. so i think it's gonna need their stuff. most of the conners on the go up. so that's why they've got to put a lot of corporate thing to maintain. the author reopen and you know, we have also to go see didn't equation the bottom of demo cuz a lot of issues at the moment because of the global warming and a lot of goods cannot be saved from that sort. so i'm 5 is also increasing front of the importance of this who has come out and the transportation of the goods for this was kind of dumb dumb i your view on this is, is this operation doable? is it possible with a few? well, i've no, not just if you will say that us naval assets, french naval assets. there are 10 countries in this coalition. is this possible to essentially make this waterway safe enough for all those ships to decide to reroute

their traffic through their, giving it more than 12 companies so far? i've said we're not, we're not sailing through this waterway anymore. it's going to be very difficult and, and part of the answer to that question is going to depend on what are the rules of engagement which are still not completely clear. a lot of detail is you have to be announced. is it going to be purely defensive or are american assets in the region ships in the red sea? going to retaliate against the assets against towards heat surveillance radar. besides launch? what's the port installations on the red sea coast? we don't really know that yet. and the americans have been cautious in it, not committing to directly hits uh, with the assets that would be complicated. the court fees feel very emboldened right now. they feel borderline to break stick. i think because they do perceive that they are unchallenged inside young men, which is probably an accurate assessment as they have been able to push back against saudi arabia. now they are negotiating with saudi arabia. saudi arabia's

withdrawal from yep. and it's not a piece process, right. it's the ocean of that with the victory. so right now the which these few is, is that they really have the bigger end of the stick. so can a maritime mission and the red sea helped to protect some of the ships by air, defense mechanics lives and so on. yes, but will it be enough to convince, as you've said, the many companies that are, as we speak more and more of them announcing that they will not trans it through the ridge read see, that's difficult that night. as of now i'm, i'm not convinced that it's going to fully work. i certainly hope so, but it's, it's going to be a major challenge that and by the way, something and again, this is this question is operational in nature and it to my, if you wanna address it, go ahead. james. if you have thoughts as well, go ahead and if this is a detail, then we can move on. but the western countries, specifically france has mentioned look, they are sending, they meaning to who these. they're using. sha had drugs which cost about

$2030000.00. they're very cheap and we're shooting them down with besides that are worth about a 1000000 euro. so this raises question of whether this western co listen is sustainable as it's presently constructed, the way in which these western countries intend to protect this waterway. if they're hemorrhaging millions of dollars of yours and missiles when young men will be able to launch these really inexpensive drones. is that something that the west some countries can sustain? and perhaps james? yeah, it's interesting to say go back a few years through operation as a lands. uh it was a different schema. in the end, it was successful not only because of countering the attacks by whose amount of power boats the scripts that came in the trenton, the container or traffic going through. but also because he was assigned it to the, the power installations. all of a sudden all because it took a long time,

but not all variation that to happen. but what i did, it was probably the major fact uh, in stopping uh, the privacy coming out of somebody uh uh, in a different uh complex here. but nevertheless, i think probably the same sort of inflection point is probably gonna be reached as song juncture when uh, any international, maritime protection for us is going to have to design whether or not it takes on the resolved launching science online and uh, all the costs should that happen or dangerous that because you, us getting involved and all that you have any will set to the civil war valley, which is may have one of them, but they haven't yet consolidated deposition. now there is danger. they aren't getting drained into. yeah. and all the civil conflict within, you know, so this is not very typical. so the thing to achieve and i suspect that will be a lot of head scratching imagery, planning places in washington and elsewhere as to when and if natural happened. and

it was a tax on land against that who does if they continue with their current policy. however, this not to get to the end of the day, who just justify all of this because they want as opposed to a pallet as the most. anybody who has been to you haven't noticed just how strong the feelings are about that it's because it will, it comes to an end that also may have a effect on the which the strategy you're looking for. there you raise very interesting point, which is as you say, that the, the who these are doing this in the name, in support, especially of palestinians in gaza. do you think that what they're doing in the red sea right now, by, by putting this military pressure on this waterway? do you think that can actually move the needle in the israel gauze award hasn't so far? i've got you. frankly, i don't think he's going to be a major factor in changing the positions of the principal class, so it may not be as strangers and i to help the americans and not boil. so i don't

think there will be a direct effect on all that. and that belief in what other things boss should the guys will come to an end to should be move on to the next stage, whatever that may be. and then which is may well of dollars out of their actions, because uh they're, they're kind of their time drive, so to speak, in terms of what they're trying to do stuff for us. what would it take for the major shipping companies to give the green light to go back through the red sea? cuz at least 12 of them as, as of the time of recording of the show have pulled out of this route and they're re routing. what would it take, is there a benchmark where they say for them it's a business decision, right? they need to make sure it's safe enough to be able to send or their goods. that's correct. and you said exactly what is all all about what is driving the decision is age business is and, and also because they have to balance between risk control stability. so they have

to find out is, is more thing to pass through the red sea at the moment, or should they be more secure and spend a bit of more time asked, are it's a piece of moral my assets and make it public these. so to have a safe, 5 buses and navigation. and i think that's the question of them each individual company has to take, because as you know, it's combine, it has different business strategies and different uh, business costs or so based on their own ideas and believes they're going to move towards the as you watch all of this on fold where to where to what may be an inflection point here, right? the us is just bringing together this international coalition to try and secure this waterway. as you watch this unfold, we don't know yet exactly where this goes, how this ends, what are you going to be watching out for? what signals are you interested? it that i will be watching for the rules of engagement in more detail. as i mentioned a few minutes ago for the coalition and what that implies for

a plus possible retaliation against directly against to the assets inside. yeah. but it's not clear to me if the us wants to do that for fear of escalation in the red sea and beyond with the close season, perhaps with other arm groups that iran backs throughout the region. but also for fear of with you retaliation. i mean, right now there's a very delicate balancing act that is being played in those political talks between saudi arabia and these. they have been going on for a long time now more than a year. for there has been rumors of an amended deal between saudi arabian to quit these for a long time. now it keeps on getting pushed back. one of the reasons why it keeps on getting pushed back is that the who would fees, again perceive that they have the big end of the stick and that they are consistently asking for more, trying to extract more concessions for saudi arabia. so this might also be part of the quickie calculus here to try to extract more concessions to legit and make the consolidated to institutionalize their domination of what they want to be. now at

a phase of postwar. yep. and so if the us retaliates and hits with the assets radar sites surveillance site support installations on the red sea coast, that may be in a way the best way to establish a narrow terms, a deterrence of the red sea, which is probably necessary to reopen it. the shipping, but the risk of doing that is that the, who with these would retaliate, not necessarily only against the us, but possibly also again, saudi arabia or the weight you or other countries in the region, which would throw off potentially other political dynamics that play notably those savvy who she talks. so this is a very difficult equation for the us to try to figure out to try to strike the right balance. because of the actions that may be necessary on one front may cause damage on another front. so i'm, i'm not sure what the, the right way out for the us is here. james, sweet game play this. what do you think are the realistic scenarios? i mean, 11 that we've kind of put out there is, well, perhaps this,

this multinational naval force actually neutralizes that with the threat to this waterway. i suppose that's one positive scenario. what do you think of the other realistic ones? because of the fat jobs that a terrorist effect, all that multi national solos, particularly if it's not just the west, some countries i thought i saw the goals. i think the goal probably would be very supported, whether it will join in the, to the, i don't know and they have to, except for a bar and by raise the only our country haven't get excited about the expected that given the surveys that the us 3 but i also important, as i said before, is china, i'm just on the central time, some of the asian cultures, if they join into i think that would be a, there's a massive to town a lot on each other, which is, but also to the right hands the get the radium relationship with china plays in the

background view as well. and it might just be successful without having to launch major attacks. so on the may not be on a certain a bomb with how fast i'm really sick of perhaps about maybe ones have for too much yet. but there is this danger of that is the, the multinational thoughts, whatever his fault does get. it dropped into the civil conflict on the way being produced by that could be pretty dangerous. the old people all concerned um, we shouldn't exclude that. and we don't have much time left in the show. but can i get you to address quickly something that you might have said several times that the who these may have an i not just on the israel gauze a war, but also on their piece deal that they're currently negotiating with the saudis. and this may help them put pressure on the saudis, your, your views on that. i got some points out my, my board,

but i'm not sure. i don't know. it will make the situation back much better. the reason that a few there is something you mentioned, the movers that you obviously which is at the moment so that there was a danger that they are reaching. yeah. they have a strong interest through counting salis out here radio. they don't want to get back into the sort of situation they were then 3 or 4 years ago. and they do their own position domestically. will be tremendously weakened is not the saudi arabian necessarily will re enter a civil war and you haven't, but they have to be very careful about that in what their counters. so i think so. father, no thought perhaps that could be the principal. yeah. if so, it is a trying to do that. these are the leverage long sounds. okay, well, we'll leave it at that. that completes the result picture of this conversation. thank you so much to all of your gentlemen to measure know james moran stuff for us going through these. thank you for joining us today and for taking the time. thank you to for watching. you can see the program again, any time by visiting our website alpha 0 dot com and for further discussion,

go to our facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash h 8 inside story. you can also join the conversation on x as a j inside story is our handle for me several then. yeah, and whole team here in doha, twice in the as israel's war and gaza continues, we bring you the nation. we're on the grounds and goes back to bring you the events as they have been reporting 1st 10 on the suffering and a lot of people under and then the list of tasks and states and we live in occupied east to resume covering the light this political developments and in fact we're here across the west bank of voting as how this war is not just massively affecting losing dollars. stay with us for the latest updates and detailed coverage of the

war on gaza. on alice's, the president biden says, one to 2 state solution for palestinians and israelis, but this, anybody believe it's doable? what this is real for? i'm gonna say it back to us foreign policy. and what are the long term consequences for the region and the world? a quizzical look at us politics, the bottom line. we interview on my what do you, what that will be at that the spend a minute more minutes. what else do you need is that have that? did i solve that? and it's about 80 concepts. console him to den slim and would you like another minute to book a say i don't think this,

but the file must have had to fill out like a me it's literally just have that little photo not glue on them. and they've been in bed. zillow, just get them in a minute and we'll go. freleigh hazy on the . the rest on the fire was struts. continue across garza, at least a 100 ton experience. are killed by it's very forces in the past 24 hours. the con, carry johnston. this is all just here on the from to also on the product is really is really slow. and i though you many, terry, and pause and additionally we don't mind tearing aids in order to enable the release of hostages.