so sullivan has more. this is the moment volcano in southwest, iceland corrupted, spewing lava, smoking all directions. molten rock and columns safire poured out of features in the ground. it followed weeks of earth, quick activity, and meet your ologist had recorded more than 1000 tremors in the 24 hours before the eruption. that's kind of mixed feelings. to be honest though. yeah, let's see how it goes and how long it lasts. and it's still amazing to see, but yeah, that's kind of a bittersweet feeling at the moment. the volcano is about 4 kilometers away from gun the vic of fishing town in the south. fearing a significant interruption from last month. authorities issued evacuation orders for the $4000.00 residents and close the nearby geothermal spot. they meet through

a logical office says the volcanic future is about 3.5 kilometers long. as long as gushing out at the rate of 100 to 200 cubic meters per 2nd, much more than in previous eruptions. at a cubic international airport remains open. although there are delays to both arriving and the parking flights. back in 2010, a volcanic eruption caused major disruptions across europe. and aerospace police are in high alert and members of the public had been warned not to approach the area axels i'm gonna reach out to 0. they are in security council has agreed to withdraw the peacekeepers from democratic republic of congo. the gradual exit will begin later this month. but the un mission will remain in the country for nothing. yeah. companies or thoughts is a toothpaste. cases of failing to protect civilians from alms groups operating in the east and the c. the ukraine's presence has proposed mobilising up to

500000 people into the army and whose end of yet press conference, let them as an ends case said, the decision depends on the defense capability. finance is unfairness. russia announced on tuesday it sounds to increase the size of its on me to 1500000 jesus trying to recruit most soldiers to fight on the front lines. software in north america and dies selling its planting. russia just been idle since most goes invasion of ukraine is offering. there's some pieces bag factory for symbolic little price equivalence of $77.00. taking a loss of more than 200000000. ok is continues here on obviously that's of to the bottom line. the, submits the world slow down,

we stand firm as homes with tests of global nickel reserves. indonesia is foyce to leave the global, the battery industry. we definitely manage our abundant resources and play a role in solar energy harnessing offerings, 75 percent of global carbon credits, essentially committed to environmental protection, enhancing investment climate, digital licensing, your better tomorrow? hi, i'm steve clements and i have a question. what's behind the us pressure for israel to change it? scorched earth strategy and gaza? let's get to the bottom line. the in the middle east, the bye didn't ministration is exactly at the point where it never wanted to be. literally one week before the hamas attack of october, 7th us national security advisor jake sullivan was saying and quote, the middle east region is quieter today. then it has been into decades on quote.

now it's round the clock crisis meetings and one top us official after the other making trips to the region. after months of rejecting a full ceasefire. now, american officials and some hard line european allies like the u. k in germany are heading that they're not okay with the brutality of israel's war. israel strategy has been to punish the civilian population of the gaza strip with maximum damage, killing and maiming tens of thousands of innocent palestinians, and turning gaza into a place where no one can live. so what's behind a slight change in tune among western powers? and what if anything will change in this war? today we're talking with n bremar president and founder of the razor group, a firm that studies geopolitical risk. and thank you so much for joining us. let's . i want our audience to know that one of the reasons you're famous in the world is for seeing crises coming around the corner, assessing and looking at geo political risk. it is out there, but i want to re read to you a statement made on the 29th of september by jake sullivan,

the president's national security advisor. he said the middle east region is quieter today. then it has been in 2 decades now. challenges remain. iran is nuclear weapons program, the tensions between israelis and palestinians, but the amount of time that i have to spend on crisis and conflict in the middle east today compared to any of my predecessors going back to 911, is significantly reduced. so i want to ask you in this was a week before october 7th and the hamas attacks. what didn't jake sullivan see coming that you did coming? well, i mean, 1st of all let's, let's recognize that many of the things that jake was talking about a week before october 7 are still in place. the abraham accords which helped facilitate israel normalizing relations with countries around the region and putting them in the best geo political position they had been since

independence of israel still very much in place. secondly, a breakthrough that was facilitated by the americans. a breakthrough facilitated by the chinese between iran and saudi arabia, but nobody thought possible. that's still very much in place it back to is after the october 7, a terrorist attacks that mohammed been solomon and iranian president, right. you see, spoke on the phone for the 1st time and then raised traveled to the saudi kingdom to meet with m b s. and with many other adult leaders. so i mean, the backdrop of the big powers in the middle east. being able to engage with each other and not be in a state of war that was true before october 7th. that's true after october 7th, but of course the piece of jigs quote that really reads most problem magically is i haven't had a spend that it's time on this compared to anything else. and since october 7,

he's been spending most of his time on it in the back. he's been on shuttle diplomacy back and forth to the region just as the secretary of defense, just as the secretary of state, even president bye. so what went wrong and what went wrong? is that every one, the israel, each and the golf allies and the your views and the absolutely americans for years basically change the conclusion of, well we don't, we can't resolve is ro, palestine. so we'll just stop it in a box. and perhaps we'll even literally stop the palestinians in a box. and we'll, we'll make peace with the rest of the region. and we'll just get off, keep on keeping on and, and what we saw on october 7 is that that doesn't work for the palestinians and they can make you pay for it. um that's, that's basically the, the senior little piece, the, the jake is miss israel going to be safe or is it going to be able to take out from

us? is there stability down the road for israel after what we've seen on fault? well, there's 2 reasons why they're not safer. one is that you can take out from us leadership and tunnels and come in and control and fighters, but you will not as a consequence, take out the ideas etiology that led to her. mazda, in fact, will strengthen the americans learned this over decades with the failed warrants, or you can take up in laws and all of his henchmen, but you can't take out the extremism and you see the tile of on running afghanistan . and yet again, in afghanistan today, if you ask the palestinians in gaza and in the west bank, how they feel about from us, there is far more support for that group. after october, 7th and a half to 2 months of is really war. but then there was before october 7th, that's one way that they're not safer. second way they're not safer is they're

losing international support. the americans are more isolated in supporting israel and imposing a ceasefire in the war today. then the russians war, when they invaded ukraine a couple of years ago, and you see that with united nations security council resolution and the general assembly both that have taken place. that's an astonishing thing to say in, in the united states by this under a lot of pressure because a lot of the supporters and especially young people are increasingly sympathetic with the palestinian cause. not with israel. and indeed, in recent polls, astonishing to me, unlike jordy of young americans, generations, the americans. so the attacks on october 7th, the terrorist attacks were actually justified. so those are the 2 ways that israel is not safer. but see, i want to be very clear. you have a lot of people that are saying israel is facing an ex essential threat,

and that's not true either. israel is in the strongest military position of any country in the region. a significant nuclear force enormously well trained and technologically advanced, military border and surveillance capabilities. far more capacity to outdone, andrew iron don't to defend against missile attack in israel than anybody else in the region. and it is true that october 7th showed the weaknesses of those defences, especially if a government took his eye off the ball as not yahoo did. but i've had so many lectures about how israel is the best place to invest long term in the middle east for pension funds and institutional investors. and then the next hour, those same leaders say israel faces an extra special threat. both of those things cannot simultaneously be true. the former is and still is and the latter is

politically expedient. and we need to recognize that, well, let me play you a clip along those lines from secretary of defense, lloyd austin, who had something to say about this crisis less, less than what compound this tragedy. if all that was waiting for the israeli people and your palestinian neighbors at the end of this offer, war was more in security fury and despair. and it was a very sobering words in the united states, secretary of defense about the neighborhood. you just talked about risk, you're one of the greatest risk calculators i know. is this really robbing itself in this moment of that triple a, you know, gold star rating of, you know, a relatively low risk investment for the rest of the world by not taking an off ramp to some of what we've seen. how is this real playing with its future here? but again, you know, kind of less than, you'd think steve, again,

because no one's going to take away the military support that the us is providing noah is going to take away the technological capabilities. israel has, i mean, you know, the people that are fighting against israel in the palestinians in from us are fighting from a position of desperation. the israelis are defending from a position of strength. and they're also occupied from a position of strength. so no, i don't by the idea that israel is suddenly going to be ex, essentially vulnerable to its enemies. not least because leaders in saudi arabia and the u. a e quietly are, are perfectly happy to see how must be destroyed. they can't say it publicly. how mazda is a problem for them? the arab street is a problem for them. and saudi arabia would love to be in a position where they could once again, normalize relations with israel, as they were just about to do before october 7th. they just need it to be more than window dressing for the palestinians,

given what's happened for the last couple of months. so no adult by that. but i do by the fact of the israel is more isolated today and is losing some of its international support that has been hard bought over many decades. and i'm sympathetic to the fact that is rarely steel what they cannot live next to a territory. that is run by a government that does not recognize their right to exist. i, i except that i except that it cannot be sustained people or the is really government to live next to a come us lead gaza. but that is very different than saying that they must destroy every member of home us that's ever picked up a rifle, but they must destroy every individual who has described loyalty or fealty to that organization. i don't think it is accomplishable. i think that the civilian costs have already been far too bye, as a consequence of their efforts to do that,

and i think they will lose more than they gain from their own population and more broad. do you think there's a way after this conflict subsides and it will subside, it will ended amount at some moment where the palestinian authority or the p l. o or some other entity that the united states helps engineer in place, will be able to come in and govern. garza come in and govern the west bank and move us forward. or do you think that's a pipe dream? but the idea of governing does a, when it's rumble, and then, and more than 50 percent of the population, without homes, you can govern that. you have to rebuild that before you can govern it. you have to construct it. there has to be a state there. there's no state there right now. there's human cottage. so where, where many, many months, probably years away from when you would be able to talk about governing up 2 and

a half 1000000 people on the ground in gaza. but it will need to happen. and it will need to happen with a plan for a sustainable future for the palestinians of israel has a right to defend itself under every circumstance. so do the palestinians. israel, he's have a capacity to defend themselves. as of right now, the palestinians do not do that. you need to have a government that doesn't want to destroy israel, and it also is capable of governing. it's pete full without corruption, without stealing all of the aid that's coming into them. that is not how much historically that has not been the palestinian authority. they haven't done a very good job of this. nobody else. now the americans are saying they want the palestinian authority provide some security even if not governance. right. the is really, is under non yahoo a say no way know how i don't believe it. not. yeah, i was going to be there for a much longer than another few months. so it's clear that you're not going to have

that kind of a solution with him in charge, but nobody thinks he should be running israel, not least. he is really citizens once he's gone. yeah, i think that's part of a solution. i think egypt can be part of a solution as well, with a lot of money provided by the gulf states. but this, i think united nations can be part of that solution. but, but steve, we are very, very far from that conversation. you know, one of the things i've been wondering is, are we seeing an escalation without noticing it? you've recently written about the who t's drones that were short down 14 drones that were shot down successful ballistic missile attacks from the who tease on shipping in the red sea and coming out of the suez canal. and it is affecting the decision on how some commerce is traveling. is there any iran back? the escalation right now that we're not witnessing? is this the who teased basically taking independent action?

and do you worry about that? is that something, as i have to tell you in washington, there's not been a lot of reaction to this, but when you look at the detail of what the who t's have been able to do is pretty significant in my book. what do you think? well, you, you asked me if there is a ron bax escalation. i think the answer is yes, you did not ask me if there was a wrong orchestrated escalation. the answer to that would be no. and there is a very big gap between those 2 things. even if they are leading to the same outcome now, for the 1st 6 weeks of this, for the attacks we saw from the who's these as well as from she and militias in iraq and syria, also backed by iran, were considered by the americans privately to be new since attacks, they weren't meant to kill soldiers. they weren't meant to really, you know, sort of lead to any escalation. they were just kind of showing that these actors were there, they're powerful. they could cause problems in the future. you know,

you need to pay attention to the and the american response was very restrain targeted. want to tackle. we also meant to not really kill anybody and certainly not getting the iranians directly involved. since then, we have now seen it says the ceasefire, the, the humanitarian pause, when the hostages were being exchanged. and now the attacks on gaza have begun again in earnest. we have now seen a significant escalation from the who these in particular go are attacking ships with the intention of destroying them and sustained the tax on american award ships in the red sea that has led some companies to stop shipping through that are area. and instead, a much longer, much more expensive wrapped around south africa. and it's also led to more significant the american responses, though, focused so far on economic sanctions. again, some of those actors, as opposed to military escalation. americans don't want the iranians to get

directly involved in this war. what we've seen from the ronnie is so far as they're willing to keep the who these on a pretty long leash. but that's very different from you don't want to. um to, to have this become a regional conflagration. so i'm like, you see, i'm more worried today about that trajectory. then i was 3 weeks ago. hm. but i still think it is less likely than more likely that we are, you know, on the tipping point of a regional war. now you're seeing more and more direct calls by the administration for a change of game plan by the israelis and gaza. and i'm just wondering, and i asked this recently of egypt, foreign minister, so i'm a sugary i said, is there a line that will trigger some different action from egypt in the neighborhood? and he said, probably not. which means i'm wondering at what point we stopped watching the

horror of what's on folding in in, in palestine. and people begin putting consequences into their words. now, privately, these rallies had told the americans that they had learned lessons. and that mistakes were made in the 1st weeks of the bombing campaign in the north of gaza. and that, that was going to lead to restraint that a lot fewer civilian casualties. well, the, by the ministration doesn't buy that, at least from what they've seen so far. and by doesn't like board trust not yahoo! now the, the, the americans, it's not surprising. israel is the top ally of the united states in the region and they experience the worst casualties, the worst attacks on the jews. but any one has seen since the holocaust. so it's not a surprise that the american response is we're going to create any criticism we have . we're going to make to you privately. we're not going to err dirty laundry against our friends publicly. and that also meant veto is that the security council

and carrying a lot of water for the israelis in multilateral diplomacy with the gulf states and with the europeans and others. all of that has happened. but i want to bring you back steve to 2015. when the same non yahoo was in bower and israel as the obama administration with biden. what pushing for an iran nuclear deal, the j. c. p. away and not. yeah. who is the top ally of the united states in the middle east, did not quietly tell by it. and here's what i really think you should do. and here's how we should work this. and i want to give you some advice. know the fluids of washington. he gave a public speech to the house and the senate bipartisan doing everything he could to sabotage the torpedo. the iranian nuclear geo gave interviews to american newspapers. same thing. now that is not the way you behave. if you're the top ally of the united states and the region, especially when you're in a position of stop,

look at, it's not as if there's a power balance between israel and the united states. and, and i think the buying does have an entirely too soft gloves approach with not. yeah. but i mean by didn't is israel's biggest friend, strongest friend, most committed friend for decades and decades. and he has been sitting there publicly watching on yahoo, destroy aspects of that position. and that relationship in an election year in the united states. do you think that there is an opportunity there still down the road? the united states is hoping the salaries may be other abraham accords members are going to be the re, builders of gaza, the stakeholders in gaza, or do you think they're going to stay on the sidelines like they've large, we've been doing? i think the saudis want to play more of a leadership role and i think there they have a much better relationship with the us right now. in some ways, paradoxically, given the chinese engagement, how much more energy they're buying as well, given what's happened between israel and, and from us. still the,

the saudis are very interested in a nuclear energy deal, civilian nuclear energy deal with the americans. that would also bring inspectors onto the ground in the savvy radio was a fuel pump fuel cycle and the americans would provide them with major non nato allies status and ramp up the level. busy of insect knology, of the weapon systems. they're providing the saudis, i think that that deal is absolutely still doable. the question is, is a, a saudi normalization of relations with israel. a part of that is your right now we can't be with this is really government. it can be and with window dressing for the palestinians, which would have been acceptable before the war. but that can be you need to have something much more substantive for the palestinians. and the saudis needs to be part of it needs to be a lot more money and a lot more security instability on the ground than that deal. that was inc in bahrain, that was

a saw for the palestinians that allowed for the abraham acor's in the 1st place under the trunk ministration. let me ask you real quickly about david cameron now for administrative buquet and, and only in a bare cock of germany. germany's foreign minister of both, pushing hard for resumption of the deal making around hostages. and a lot of us been looking at the hostage politics and is reeling whether there's any dimension there. but more and more international calls to get back into that kind of deal making with guitar at the table is really some us, etc. where do you think that might go refresh the germans and the u. k are now calling for a sustainable ceasefire between israel and almost not an immediate cease fire, but a sustainable ceasefire. but it's a different position from where the americans are. it's very different from where the war went on russia, ukraine, where the us was. so. busy aligned with all of nato, here in the us is largely by itself. and the allies are taking

a position. it's more it came to what you see in the global south, frankly, because they are also calling for the immediate release of all passages. everyone is saying that, but you've gotten, you've already released the hostages that were easy to release and were easy to negotiate for when you're talking about man of fighting age. it's a lot harder, and then how mazda is going to drive a much tougher deal. also with a mouse getting blown up to a much greater degree of, you know, they, they increasingly see the israel is the old war cabin, is willing to go after them individually. while there's not as much reason for them to negotiate. it's kind of like the position that you're getting for goes it had when he finally decided to march on moscow is not like that was a winning strategy. but he was kind of out of options, right? so, i mean, if you're from us right now, your willingness to negotiate short of things, but the non, you know, government are completely unwilling to provide you really, really limited. so you can call for this all you want. and they've been, you know,

general assembly resolutions that have demanded overwhelming majorities demanding a ceasefire, but also the release of all hostages. well, israel said no to one side, but a mazda said very clear, no, the other as well. we always get a straight scoop from in bremar, in bremar, president and founder of the political risk consultancy, the razor group. really thank you so much for joining us today. is it? so what's the bottom line from america's perspective? israel's future and security have sort been dealt with is a sacred issue that couldn't be discussed with the same kind of given take that say the security of europe is discussed. that's one of the reasons why a state of palestine or justice for palestinians has been a 3rd real topic in america for decades. but that may just be changing. the us defense secretary is warning out loud. that is real, may suffer strategic defeat and young people in america are dismayed by what they're seeing. and they're promising to withhold support from president joe biden

. this price is changing and affecting american politics. that doesn't mean the equation of us support for israel, structural indifference to palestine changes tomorrow, but it does mean the equation is no longer cost free. it means more americans are paying attention and the past belief the palestine future can be shoved out of you . and under the rug isn't just no longer viable. maybe just maybe a different world is shaping up. and that's the bottom line. the of the latest news as it breaks. so you had to be like 50 has as a photo 15 photo implement the shock economic plan to cut down government spending a fight inflation with detailed coverage. many members of the hiding varying arbitrary arrest model disappearing from around the world. entities,

as government says, it's looking for a new site temporarily. how's the refugees and looking for sustainable solutions. the exploring diverse culture exciting political discourse, exposing societies, the docket award winning intense investigation. the get compelling insights into humanity open until the stories from asia were in the pacific. 101 east. on al jazeera, of twice as a for witnessing his brother's day begins to sing and was a happy child who loved to play for his friends. the tax happens during one of the almost daily is really ministry, right. it's almost a jeep to need all me says it's around a dish,

foam and killed. come on to really on posting it resistance. according to adams, family and witnesses, the lead drive of slowed down short, 15 year old bus, and then shop big year old item the back to the head. i wish i was it a 3 and someone would wake me. that's telling me i'm just really i would never a god today was this felix to anyone. it's hot, but they got, we are the what am i supposed to feel the a hearing the have you had a release that he has the support of 15 minutes of shot pick one moment, then asking questions. what do you expect this particular for to translate when it comes to the us selection, reporting from the action? not just give us a sense of what is the target this places i'll just see,

it was teams across the world. when you closer to the fox of the story, the rest, the on the fire was stripes continue across garza, at least a 100 ton of citizens, are killed by as many forces in the past 24 hours. the hello and carry johnston. this is all just, well i from to also is there any is.