a hearing, have you had any lady says she has the support of 15 implements of shell pick one moment, then asking questions. what do you expect this particular for to translate when it comes to the us selection reporting from the action? not just give you a sense of what is the target this places i'll just see, it was teams across the world when you closer to the thoughts of the story. where does the conflict in sedan stand? after 8 months, the rapids support forces says it's in control of the 2nd largest city, but the fighting shows no sign of ending and there's no political settlement on the horizon. so what does it mean for sedans future? this is inside store the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm so very a, it's been more than 8 months since the lives of millions of sudanese were plunged into conflict and uncertainty. the are assessed power, military group, or rapids support forces has gained momentum in recent weeks, consolidating its grip on the vast door for region and seizing new territory, including in the last few days, the country, 2nd largest city wad mcdonny. that's been a major 8 hub for people displaced from their homes. and now the un says at least a quarter of a 1000000 sudanese are being forced to flee yet again, the original body of god which has been trying to spearhead peace talks, said just last week to the end security commitment from the rival sides to implement the ceasefire and hold a dialogue. so how does this latest development in one medina change the dynamics of the conflict? where does it leave the prospect of a political settlement? we'll put these questions to our guests in just

a moment. after this update from victoria, good. already display stopped 230-0000. so you need to on the moves again, this time from 0 stay to previously peaceful region south of how to it's capital. what mcdonny had been refuge for half a 1000000 people. bosses the baffled between sedans on me in the power minute 3 rapids support forces extend south sedan, 2nd largest city is no longer a safe haven. many of them a, it's a case that plays with little but the clothes on that back. i mean, you know, they've, they've been struggling to survive even where they were with each what it was say to the last 78 months. and now they have absolutely nothing that really broke, and they need foods, the show to many of them needs medical services that they need most of although a sense of safety and they don't know what's happening back in april. what began as a power struggle between military lead abdul thought to alva and just then deputy

general mohammed have done douglas erupted into a full blown conflict since then the u. n says moving 12000 people has been killed. moving 5000000 have been forced to leave the homes until the population is in need of humanitarian aid. the warring parties have previously indicated they all ready to negotiate, bought with the meaning of a new front hopes of a political settlement of fading. it's a disaster basically, it's actually a catastrophe. what's happening right now, and the longer this one goes on in the deluxe chances, any, any sign of ceasefire, you know, is just, it will take place. and even though the god statement was a positive uptake, as in the okay, there's a chance, it seems to have fallen on deaf ears when it comes to both the iris that from the army, united nations secretary general, antonio gutierrez says he's deeply concerned about the escalating violence and his reiterate to calls for sci fi. they're all growing concerned. sedan could break off

if the conflict is not result soon. victoria gay to be inside. story. ok, let's bring it over. guess. tell me the fall as a researcher and policy analyst, specializing on students constitution building. you're joining us from an undisclosed location today in doha is alan boswell, the international crisis groups project director for the horn of africa. and in washington dc. david sion is a former us deputy chief of mission in sedan. thanks to all of you for joining us. i mean, i want to go to you 1st. how significant is the capture of one mcdonny by the r s f? it's a very significant indeed. so mainly the auto safeway advance again, clear to him and did that for the gym and both had but i predict kind of purposes. cartoon won't be super competent with the army base aah or has been based before

they type to be to keep you posted. i ask that most of the kept if it was captured by that support for sue. and that's what it is that type of some of the base uh, web a, you know, get sorted out to get to sort of get the high football tone, but also gets applied as a little bit more. they will try and be seen at so that, you know, in so many ways made sense. uh, but now the advancement towards mid any particularly ad that was, you know, at safe haven for that i the piece from for cartoon, uh, frontier to be and so, and uh, kind of shows that the time to advance to was the entire country um to capture the entire country show it shows that, you know, the significant style of all that, but the significance of investments from stems from them go in and, and, and create a new ground. and it's kind of a changing the dynamics, i think for the past 8 months. and so, and we would out of doing and discussing who has the opposite hand as emulate the,

or the parent mean, it's of what forces. and then it goes down to now with that to support forces advancing to new ground. uh, you know, mid any defense uh, base military base. uh that folds up and gets captured by the workforce or uh, and it kind of shows how the dynamics are changing. okay, save it out of the doc support forces. well, i mean, you're right. i can't count the number of times since the beginning of this war and the last 8 months that i've asked who's winning the war, who's losing, who has more control, etc. so i don't know if this is a turning point, but certainly that it warrants asking this question again. alan is the sidney's military losing this warrants, but in light of the fact that they no longer control most of the capital, they no longer have the the cities, the countries look, 2nd largest city they've lost most. if not all of the r 4, are they losing?

uh, yes, the army is losing the war. uh, i to be honest. uh, the army is probably been losing the war for a while. uh, they essentially have not been a major battle yet in this war. um, i think the significance of this latest are offensive and the capture um and before they captured it, this was also just the 1st major offensive that the art stuff had made the east. and so there was this question for a while with the, our staff, essentially a settled for a base consolidating and the western part of sudan and cartoon. or would it push east and continue expanding this war into the rest of the sedan? um, and they answer that question the last week, and then the 2nd shock from any student needs was how quickly they have heard. one mcdonny of the army essentially didn't put out much of a fight and retreated very quickly. and it has many cities who, who thought this might be a divided student for a while for a while now, thinking very much about what end games of the war might look like. yeah,

well the question of the divided sedan is definitely one. we're going to be asking today i want to bring in david shit into this conversation. david, you're a former us diplomat deputy chief of mission in sedan. when you look at this, the totality of it 8 months of war, little progress with political negotiations. and now this the 2nd largest city following to the r, assess you think, what as well, i don't see very many grounds for any kind of progress on the negotiation front. i think that at this point to the rapid support force, it is probably believe that they have the upper hand and can, can continue to have victory is are. so even though there has been periodic discussion of reviving talks, and yet i don't expect much to come from that or any other possible talks for that matter. what happened because i think it was 89 days ago. now, one of the regional, blah, the regional block, a guy that is handling one of the strands of negotiations here seemed to have,

i mean, i wouldn't say breakthrough, but they, they were, they were putting forward what looked like progress. they said, look, we've had both sides of the general who leads the sydney's armed forces general albert han, and then they had a mr. doug low on the phone who leads the recess and both sides agreed notionally, nominally with the idea of a cease fire. and now, 8 days later, it doesn't look like a cease fires on the table at all. or i didn't part of the problem is uh, people are putting too much trust in what they're hearing from both sides. i haven't seen that much reason to believe anything. ready come to the buyer's side, a sense this conflict again. and i think this is another instance of the both sides saying what the new guy folks wanted to hear. but they probably had no

intention of following through on or i need your thoughts on the various diplomatic efforts that we've seen to to main strand stewart avenues to it . one is a god, the regional block of east and african leaders and the other is what we call the jetta talks, right? so it got as involved there as well, but it's hosted by saudi arabia the us as involved as well. and there are indirect talks. there between the army and the r a step. so to parallel attempt set, bringing a peaceful resolution to this conflict, have they achieved anything? i'm before i speak to that, i would also like to add to the e got be who will be screening for the that when they had an agreement from both identity. i'm making dinner. we're time to come to face to face at adults and very quickly we have them in still put in a plan which is captured by the system as you know, making your statements. so just think that there's no going to happen and then they

denounce that. we're kind of going to meet with virginia for making, which shows that, you know, winning and speaking of we're hon. bye. we're not speaking to the people who are calling the shots within the i'd me like to see when it comes to athletic donation and committee age and so on and so forth. now when you speak about the different mediation platforms as you guys or the us. so the got a lot from that they did the fact that it tasted that they use so with the fact that they could talk to me in gender. i think one of the main know is that both phones do not be on board that people is without the u. e. that it's very important. it's very difficult to put an end to this for the support to the support force. it continues, as we know it's a, it's a the, a secret anymore. as they have been. b, a bait is confirmed, the quotes about the continuous supplies that they're going there. so without the

main people who are backing both admitted to correction south and out of said it, it'd be sad folks, i'm going know it's another big to that both. also mediation that initiatives have to kind of uh, overlook you sent that in. so it needs to be the end of the story. i'm to avoid having a miniature community agreement document on the quote i posted the date, you know, the minutes, the caption of us to dance with me. it's out of says or staff and would try to impede any attempts to is more dvd and less a kind of agreement that, that people were hoping for, which would not put them in back to the world. if you have just, i'm of the conservation. i'm going to g taps of the country. i was going to ask about the civilian voice a little later, but since you bring it up we might as well broach this. now allen or the civilians anywhere to be seen or heard in this conflict to day. does their voice count for anything in this, in this, in what we've seen the last 8 months,

whether there's likely 2 different questions um they are to be seen and heard. in fact, they had a big meeting in a row. be this week, many of them, of course, not all of them. there are many civilians. it's very difficult, of course. get them all united. but there is, there is a sort of core group that has been formed that met in addis ababa in october and they're meeting and they wrote me now and includes a number of former um uh, former members of the home to government. um the last civilian government into dan, including the home to come cells and others. um i think the court challenges less about that. yes, it is hard to get them all united. but really the core challenge is how do you end of this war and create space for civilians do honestly matter again in the political dispensation of. and there can be a lot of effort made by civilians and their backers to get them organized. but unless i'm waiting and finds a way of actually ending this war in the whole things to dance collapse,

how that actually intersects with citizens politics moving forward. you know, it's very difficult to tell. right? so ending this more, that doesn't seem to be happening. what do you think is the next move for the are assess boyd as they are by the capture of what medina in the last few days. it is obvious that the artist stuff is going to keep pushing its military momentum. i think until until and in event, if it finds resistance, it has thought that it has held the upper hand as since the beginning of this war. um, but essentially its been unable to get to the suit. he needs the army to sue for peace . um, at all that seems army has, uh, its main position at negotiating costs has been at the r a, so essentially withdraw from cartoon, which is a very popular demand, but is one that the ours of isn't really considering doing. so i think for now they're going to push to south the are a self it looks like um and probably push towards the south street in border towards the union border that would still leave the northern part of the country

and the eastern part of the country still in the stronghold, i still under the control of the army and these are its main strongholds in a way that could open up them. another stand off where potentially maybe there is an opportunity for a serious regional push to try to stop this war from going to the very bring and be coming in all out a battle at the end. but, but diplomacy would have to rally because thus far we haven't seen that sort of collective approach yet. david, in an operational military question. um, if you don't mind, why is we are as if winning despite the fact that they do not have air superior already because there is one side that has more planes and one side that doesn't. and the side that has the war plains is the one of the armed forces, and that usually is the side that has the upper hand. i think in the case of the art yourself, if you look at dar 4 for example, and they have a lot of local support there that i'm not convinced the sedan armed forces has

an equal amount. and so i think dar for maybe something of a special situation where they just are inherently stronger. one without a is a different situation. and frankly, i'm a little surprised that the, our staff has been able to move into walk mcdonny as easily as they have it strikes me perhaps has been more of. ready a weak yes. of the sedan armed forces, none of the strain of the rapids support forces. now they are, as i have does have plenty of on the ground assistance in terms of equipment coming from the u, a. e and, and uh, that apparently has not been a problem before. but uh, it is a little bit puzzling that they have moved to us. and the one madonica is easily is i have how many, how have this sydney's reacted to the fall of one mcdonny the fall to the or assess

as soon as people in the shop they did not expect the meat of cheap dependent just given time. and the cheap without for being a 5. i think i will just people at that you know, the chat vision to support the community. again is made up of support for students for the past 8 months. so, so i kind of, i'm now losing that paper community that they would be able to kind of, you know, defeat, that's for forces at any point. uh, but the take one important thing that people out of now the likely use that the military has never in this world particularly, but also felt that this be put to provide, to protect the billions there being time to protect the bases have been time to protect the interest ever since the or stopped it, but you know, in all the states in that code agent and then called to them and other events and states where i think has taken place. atkins, nature 15. mean if she did not try to protect 2000000000 at any point. uh,

spanish think uh that was a bit, you know, for people in percent that's why specifically we did not see that as much as because you know, we don't get as much news under quoting from that for uh, for many, you know, they just, they can technically meet these and uh, but now that seeing this, that parents had been any, came by the shop by protecting for people who are being following this more closely . expect to see what's happening in that port as limited to never tried to protect the 1000000000. but just shop in mid any kind of made people realize this as see what has been happening. i don't know. obviously i trying to kind of blame them in a tv this particular. ready on for this, but they think it's more systematic and it's a problem within their medicaid. so i'm looking to spend the, the kind of mean 6 problem to ellen. the are assessed is the beginning of this conflict has been accused of rapes looting, arbitrary killings,

detention in the areas that they have conquered. what do we actually know? they denied us by the way. they denied this. they say that if anybody within their forces is proven to have carried out any of those crimes that they would be held accountable, what do we actually know about the are assess actions in the territories that they control? well, many cases they've been quite horrific. there's been substantial investigations done, especially in the case of the west are for way, was very clear there were atrocities committed sometimes the are so essentially says that they didn't have control over these over the forces that, that committed these atrocities. um, there's obviously a lot of office cation going on. also, in cartoon, there's been widespread looting. you know, perhaps we'll try to deflect, blame and say, it wasn't them, it was other residents. it's very clear the pattern of behavior. and it's clear that looting was a means of sort of in recruiting and uh, and bringing in people to fight this war. one of the motivations has been

essentially a transfer of wealth from dan's middle class and to lead to our set of fighters. okay, let's address where this could go from here. david, if you, when you look at plausible scenarios for the future of this conflict, what do you think they are realistically, what could happen here? a route one in the 1st instance and over the short term, i think you're going to have a continuing per unit of just chaos. and you have to sit down where no one is really in charge. and it's going to be very messy for several months to come out looking a little further into the future possibility is would be a division of the country, which would be in here at really unstable. and. ready would not be lasting, but it might provide the sort of temporary relief, possibly even of a cease fire for a period of time. or you could have a,

a military victory at this point are more likely by the are a south down by the sit down are far. ready but that would also be, i think, understand, well because of the, the way that the heart of staff has confronted itself so far. uh, and has alienated so many should news nationals by what it is done in areas that are those occupied. i just can't imagine that that would be any here. and like the soluble kind of situation, i mean, david mentioned the possible division of the country. and i think it's something that you referred to at the very top of the show in your 1st answer. this is something that, a lot of observers and, and i believe student needs now feel is a very real possibility, isn't it? you obviously use me and i think you put yeah, we have been like seeing, you know, a lot of patterns that i looked at that so. so ever since there was thought to the many to be a see was kind of as it has captured mistakes that restitution. but do we have seen

the workforce of the competitors, excuse him from you know, a commission actually was interesting. they even helped specifically want to send a safe way they have the control and app. what are you seeing as when trying to establish police forces in different places? now in mid any out used to be asked to the top to receive do they have asked the, you know, technician to need this or they need to be there is a committed need to hold them by government douglas to be not having it. but you know, we have seen them trying to do that, but they obviously know that they cannot government the country themselves. they can type to really by close to, but they know that they cannot government. and this is why, you know, if ever the country as they apply a country or pods and buckets of the country apps cool. and then the control of that stuff was supposed to been, they tried to kind of go ahead and try to calm governments and, and so,

and that's not going to go through uh very easy without to invest in it and then, and they wouldn't, it wouldn't be easy for them to get accept and then maybe that's what not that you know, resulting in his fabulous vision. uh so it is it, is that what does that people have been seating but they think now that support place is making advancements. spinning in various kinds of parts of the country. it's it's, it's clear that they are not sitting at or whatever they have the opposite so far. they want to get more, which is quite, you know, quite totally, not their elena, i saw you not in your head in agreement for most of that answer. yeah i, i don't mean to sound dramatic, but this is a very, very dangerous moment for the down. a very uncertain moments. the suit in the state is collapsing, are the artists might be on a conquering job drive. but that doesn't mean that a state is being formed in it's in its wake of these are very uncertain times. it's

unclear what exactly will be left of this within the state. and obviously, dan, when this is finished, we could see the arts of continued to have victories, but essentially have local conflicts. uh, a rock like wildfire is around because there is not the legitimacy a to rule. so i think on the one hand you have this war between these 2 main belligerence, but. ready this question of what follows even as far as of continues to when it has shown no capacity to govern, it doesn't have legitimacy to it's becoming increasingly a hodgepodge of local board lords in militia. it's almost like a perpetual motion machine, which just has to keep moving. keep conquering what happens to it. once it's worth finishes. um it looks like a very bleak picture. david, is there any way? i mean it is a very bleed picture. what i'm hearing from both meet and alan and prior to that by yourself david, is there anything that can prevent this scenario from unfolding?

uh well uh, if you had a uh tiffany, take place uh the leadership level of rapids support forces and the sit down armed forces. possibly you could come to us at least to cease fire and, and some kind of ending of their conflict. uh that would not solve sedans problem that it might stop dividing short of that. no, i don't, i don't see any on any solution your, my analysis would be at least as bleed as those that we have already heard. oh i, i think this post is a huge problem for the international community also all which is going to be somewhat divider, honest response. but um, certainly western county. ready are not going to be anxious to support almost anything i can conceive of. yeah. busy likely take place and sit down and they're coming miles. well since, since none of you expect to see an epiphany really on this side of the are assessed for this and these armed forces. it could there be a more robust diplomatic effort than what we've seen over the last 8 months,

whether it's from saudi arabia, from the us, from egypt, from the east african leaders. could there be something more or less, there could be a more robust effort? yes. whether we're doing it good or not as part of another matter i, i'm just not convinced that i'm either the, the rapid support forces or the should out are versus have any interest in hearing anything about mediation or based thoughts from anyone at this point. uh, based on, on the any kind of leverage i, i just don't see that leverage being there to force them to do what they need to do to support their own people. i mean, we have just about a minute left on the show. i'm wondering just before we go, if you can sort of bring us the conversations that the student needs people are having when they follow, obviously the trajectory of their country and where things are right now. it's

quite depressing. that's the thing everyone is kind of using both now. and if it was, if anyone had, you know, more hold, uh that there would be a way out of this just before the full of many needs. now these folks that are fading away, i don't think it's particularly because, you know, we have seen that the ministry is not able to kind of gain uh any, any, any like to have any wins military me and what they look like they've been having been losing now, i don't really see that, but of course have been winning military, but losing for the clips. and on the other hand, mediation, heartsfield, uh, it took me to e, as in, is in pod, same kind of i have to bring both actors together or to make them for me, gets used by it. so that the, that what people are waiting now is that maybe there is no way off of this. and this is something that kind of thing with people not being quoting front is that, you know, i can use,

look what happened now is for the international community to exist. serious pages for support to uh, was faxing, specifically that support for the you a tobacco and then things might get to somewhere where we, we could see a way out of it. but as long as the support is coming in, there is no way to kind of make notes that word and all right, well that's all the time we have for today. but i want to thank our guests. i mean the father and boswell, and david sion thank you very much for your time today and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website, delta 0 dot com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a inside story. you can also join the conversation on x. i'll handle there is at a j inside story. for me, so venue and the whole team here. and uh huh. bye. the

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