of this year of the destruction of your everything international filmmakers and wealth cost. john, unless you're saying that these laws actually encourage more violence, 7 has to know stories for a global audience. this is my, you house. this is the way whether it's a 15 foot side of the phase us from our culture. open your eyes to an alternative view of the world today on how does era where does the conflict incident stand after 8 months, the rapids support forces says it's in control of the 2nd largest city. but the fighting shows no sign of ending and there's no political settlement on the horizon . so what does it mean for students future? this is inside store the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm sort of n e a. it's been more than 8 months since the lives of millions of student needs were plunged into conflict and uncertainty. the are assess power, military group or rapid support forces has gained momentum in recent weeks, consolidating its grip on the vast door for region and seizing new territory, including in the last few days, the country. second largest city was mcdonny. that's been a major 8 hub for people displaced from their homes. and now the un says at least a quarter of a 1000000 sudanese are being forced to flee yet again the regional body, a god which has been trying to spearhead peace talks, said just last week to the end security commitment from the rival sides to implement the ceasefire and hold a dialogue. so how does this latest development and one medina change the dynamics of the conflict? where does it leave the prospect of a political settlement? we'll put these questions to our guests in just a moment. after this update from victoria, good. the already display stopped to 300000. so you need the on the moves again,

this time from 0 stay to previously peaceful region south of hard to it's capital. what mcdonny had been a refuge for half a 1000000 people. bosses the battle between sedans, army and the power minute tree record, support forces extend south sedan, 2nd largest city is no longer a safe haven. many of them came to the case of that place with level, but the close on that back. i mean, you know, they just, they've been struggling to survive even where they were really to what it was say to the last 78 months. and now they have absolutely nothing that really broke and they need food. they show so many of them needs medical services that they need most of although a sense of safety and they don't know what's happening back in april. what began as a power struggle between military lead abdul thought to alpa him and his then deputy general mohammed have done douglas erupted into a full blown conflict. since then the un says more than 12000 people have been

killed. moving 5000000 have been forced to leave the homes until the population is in need of humanitarian aid. foreign policies have previously indicated they already to negotiate. but with the meaning of a new front hopes of a political settlement, all fading. it's a disaster basically. it's actually a catastrophe. what's happening right now, and the longer this one goes on in the deluxe chances, any, any sign of ceasefire we know is just, it will take place. and even though the god statement was a positive uptick, as in the okay, there's a chance, it seems to have fallen on deaf ears when it comes to both the iris that from the army, united nations secretary general, antonio gutierrez says he's deeply concerned about the escalating violence and his reiterate to calls for sci fi. they're all growing concerned, sudan could break off if the conflict is not result soon. victoria gay to base the

inside story. the ok, let's bring into a guest time in the fall as a researcher and policy analyst, specializing on citizens constitution building. you'll joining us from an undisclosed location today in doha is alan boswell, the international crisis groups project director for the horn of africa. and in washington dc. david sion is a former us deputy chief of mission in sedan. thanks to all of you for joining us. i mean, i want to go to you 1st. how significant is the capture of what mid dunny by the r s f? it's a very significant indeed. so mainly the auto safeway advance again, clear to him and did that for the gym and both had but i predict uh kind of uh, cartoon. obviously the competition with the army base. uh what has been base before they tried to relocate deported. i asked them most of the caps if it was kept in uh by that support for sue. and that's what it is that type of some of the base uh,

web a, you know, get sorted out to get to sort of get the high football tone. but also get supplies, add a little bit more, they will try and be seen at so that, you know, in so many ways made sense. uh, but now the advancement towards mid any, particularly that that was, you know, at safe haven for that i the piece from cartoon, uh, frontier to be and so, and uh, kind of shows that the time to advance towards the entire country. um to capture the entire country. so it shows that, you know, the significant uh of all that but the significance of investments from stems from them going and, and, and conquering new grounds. and it's kind of a changing the dynamics, i think for the past 8 months. and so, and we would out of doing and discussing who has the opposite hand as emulate the, or the patent mean, it's

a what forces and that goes the onset and now with that the support forces advancing through new ground. and you know, mid any defense based military base, i got folds and gift captured by the work force and it kind of shows how the dynamics of changing a bit of the support forces. well, i mean, you're right. i can't count the number of times since the beginning of this war and the last 8 months that i've asked who's winning the war, who's losing, who has more control, etc. so i don't know if this is a turning point, but certainly that it warrants asking this question again. alan is the sidney's military losing this warranty? in light of the fact that they no longer control, most of the capital, they no longer have the, the cities, the countries look, 2nd largest city. they've lost most, if not all of the r 4, are they losing? uh, yes, the army is losing the war. uh, i to be honest, uh the army is probably been losing the war for

a while. they essentially have not when a major battle yet in this war. um, i think the significance of this latest are offensive and the capture um and before they captured it, this was also just the 1st major offensive that the art stuff had made the east. and so there was this question for a while with the, our staff, essentially a settled for bids consolidating the western part of sudan and cartoon. or would it push east and continue expanding this war into the rest of the sedan? um, and they answer that question the last week and then the 2nd shock for many student needs was how quickly they have heard. why mcdonny of the army essentially didn't put out much of a fight and retreated very quickly. and it has many cities who, who thought this might be a divided student for a while for a while now, thinking very much about what end games of the war might look like. yeah, well the question of the divided sedan is definitely one. we're going to be asking today i want to bring in david shit into this conversation. david, you're

a former us diplomat deputy chief of mission in sedan. when you look at this, the totality of it 8 months of war, little progress with political negotiations. and now this the 2nd largest city folding to the r, assess you think, what as well, i don't see very many grounds for any kind of progress on the negotiation front. i think that at this point the, the rapid support forces is probably believe that they have the upper hand down can, can continue to have victory is, are. so even though there has been periodic discussion of reviving talks, and yet i don't expect much to come from that or any other possible talks for that matter. what happened because i think it was 89 days ago. now, one of the regional board, the regional block, again that is handling one of the strands of negotiations here seemed to have, i mean, i wouldn't say breakthrough, but they, they were,

they were putting forward what looked like progress. they said, look, we've had both sides of the general who leads the sydney's armed forces general albert han, and then they had a mr. doug low on the phone who leads the recess and both sides agreed notionally, nominally with the idea of a cease fire. and now, 8 days later, it doesn't look like as these fires on the table at all, or i didn't part of the problem is uh, people are putting too much trust in what they're hearing from both sides. i haven't seen much reason to believe anything. ready come to the buyer's side, a sense this conflict again. and i think this is another instance of the both sides saying what the you guys folks wanted to hear. but they probably have no intention of following through on or so i need your thoughts on the

various diplomatic efforts that we've seen to to main strand stewart avenues to it . one is a god, the regional block of east and african leaders and the other is what we call the jetta talks, right? so it gathers involved there as well, but it's hosted by saudi arabia. the us is involved as well. and there are indirect talks, there between the army and the r a step. so to parallel attempt set, bringing a peaceful resolution to this conflict, have they achieved anything? and i'm before i speak to that, i would also like to add to the e got be who will be screening for the that when they had an agreement from both identity permits and dinner time to come to face to face at adults and very quickly we have them in still put in a plan which is captured by the gets them as, you know, making a statement. so just think that there's no going to happen and then they denounce that. honda is not going to meet with jeanette for me. think that which shows that,

you know, when you're speaking of, we're hon. bye. we're not speaking to the people who are quoting this or within the i'd be particular when it comes to ad flooded the nation and committee age and so on and so forth. now when you speak about the different mediation platforms as you guys or the us. so the got a problem as they did the fact that it tasted that they use so with the fact that they could talk to me in did that, i think what does that mean? know is that both phones do not be on boards that people is without the u. e. that it's very important. it's very difficult to put an end to this for 5. do you a support to that support for continues, as we know it's a, it's a the, a secret anymore. as they have been. b, a bait is confirmed the quotes about the continuous supplies that they've going there. so without the main people who are backing both admitted diffraction south and out of said it's a visa talks,

i'm going know it's another big so that both also find mediation that initiatives have to kind of, uh, overlook you sent that in. so it needs to be in, at the stalls. i'm to avoid having, i'm going to to, to meet a t agreement document, only quote, posted to date. you know, the middle of the caption of us to dance for me it's out of says or pass tasks. i would try to impede any attempts to is a more dvd and less a kind of agreement that people were hoping for, which would not put an end to the word if you have just another quantity of a to i'm going to g taps of essentially i was going to ask about the civilian voice a little later, but since you bring it up we might as well broach this now allen or the civilians anywhere to be seen or heard in this conflict to day. does their voice count for anything in this? in this, in what we've seen the last 8 months, whether there's likely 2 different questions um they are to be seen and heard. in

fact, they had a big meeting in a row. be this week, many of them, of course, not all of them. there are many civilians, it's very difficult to of course get them all united. but there is, there is a sort of core group that has been formed that met in addis ababa in october and they're meeting and they wrote me now that includes a number of former um, former members of the home know government um the last civilian government ensued in including a 100 himself and others. um i think the court challenges less about that. yes, it is hard to get them all united. but really the core challenge is how do you ended this war and create space for civilians do honestly matter again in the political dispensation of. and there can be a lot of effort made by civilians and their backers to get them organized. but unless i'm waiting, finds a way of actually ending this war in the halting students collapse. how that actually intersects with students politics moving forward. you know,

it's very difficult to tell. right? so ending this more, that doesn't seem to be happening. what do you think is the next move for the or assess void as they are by the capture of what medina? in the last few days, it is obvious that the artist stuff is going to keep pushing its military momentum . i think until until and in intervention if it finds resistance, it has thought that it has held the upper hand as since the beginning of this war. um, but essentially its been unable to get to the sudanese army to sue for peace. um, at all, the thing is army has, uh, its main position at negotiating costs has been at the arse of essentially withdraw from cartoon, which is a very popular demand, but is one that the, our so isn't really considering doing so i think for now they're going to push the south, the are a self, it looks like um and probably push towards the south street in border towards the eeoc and border that would still leave the northern part of the country and the eastern part of the country still in the stronghold. i still under the control of

the army and these are its main strongholds in a way that could open up them another stand off where potentially maybe there is an opportunity for a serious regional push to try to stop this war from going to the very drink and be coming in all out a battle at the end. but, but diplomacy would have to rally because that's far we haven't seen that sort of collective approach yet. david in an operational military question. um, if you don't mind, why is we are as if winning despite the fact that they do not have air superior already because there is one side that has more planes and one side that doesn't. and the side that has to work planes is the one of the armed forces, and that usually is the side that has the upper hand. and i think in the case of the art yourself, you, if you look at dar 4 for example, and they have a lot of local support there that i'm not convinced the sedan armed forces has

an equal amount. and so i think dar for maybe something of a special situation where they just are inherently stronger. walk me down is a different situation. and frankly, i'm a little surprised that the, our staff has been able to move into walk mcdonny as easily as they have it strikes me perhaps has been more of. ready a weak yes. of the sedan armed forces that have the strain of the rapids support forces. now they are, as i have does have plenty of on the ground assistance in terms of equipment coming from the u a. e. and that apparently has not been a problem before, but it is a little bit puzzling me that they have moved us into what madonna is easily is i have how many, how have this sydney's reacted to the fall of one of the dani, the fall to the or assess as soon as people in the shop, ah,

they did not expect the meat of cheap dependent just given time and i knew chief without putting up a fight. i think i will just people that, you know, just in the support of the military, again, is made up of support for students for the past 8 months. so, so i kind of, i'm now losing that paper community that there would be able to kind of how, you know, if he, that's for, for certain, at any point. but the take one important thing that people, i did not realize the use that the military has never in this work particularly, but also throughout this week were to provide to protect civilians there being time to take the bases have been trying to protect the interest ever since the or stopped it, but you know, in all the states in that quote agent and then talk to them and other events and states where i think has taken place athens h or 15 minutes, she did not try to protect tv. and at any point, uh, spanish think uh that was a bit, you know,

for people in the sense that it was specifically we did not see that as much as because you know, we don't get as much news under quoting from that for uh, for many you know, just pick 10 live technical meet these and uh, but now that seeing this, that parents had been any, came by the shock 5 protecting for people who have been following this more closely . practically, what's happening in that port. uh, they made it to you never tried to protect civilians, but the shock in mid any kind of made people realize this and see what has been happening. i don't know this guy trying to kind of blame them in a tv this year and particularly on for this. but they think it's more systematic and it's a problem within dominican. so i'm looking to spend the, the kind of music problem to ellen. the are assessed is the beginning of this conflict has been accused of rapes looting, arbitrary killings, detention in the areas that they have conquered. what do we actually know?

they denied us by the way. they denied this. they say that if anybody within their forces is proven to have carried out any of those crimes that they would be held accountable, what do we actually know about the are assess actions in the territories that they control? well, many cases they've been quite terrific. there's been substantial investigations done, especially in the case of the west are for way, was very clear there were atrocities committed sometimes the are so essentially says that they didn't have control over these over the forces that, that committed these atrocities. um, there's obviously a lot of office cation going on. also, in cartoon, there's been widespread looting. you know, perhaps we'll try to deflect, blame and say it wasn't them, it was other residents. it's very clear the pattern of behavior. and it's clear that looting was a means of sort of in recruiting and uh, and bringing in people to fight this war. one of the motivations has been essentially a transfer of wealth from dan's middle class and to lead to our as of fighters.

okay, let's address where this could go from here. david, if you, when you look at plausible scenarios for the future of this conflict, what do you think they are realistically, what could happen here? a route one in the 1st instance and over the short term, i think you're going to have a continuing per unit of just chaos. and you have to sit down where no one is really in charge. and it's going to be very messy for several months to come out looking a little further into the future possibility is would be a division of the country, which would be in here at night unstable. and. ready would not be lasting, but it might provide that sort of temporary relief, possibly even of a cease fire for a period of time. or you could have a, a military victory at this point, are more likely by b. r a south down by the sit down are far too. ready but that would also be,

i think, understand, well, because of the, the way that the heart of staff has confronted itself so far. uh, it has alienated somebody, should news nationals by what it is done in areas that are in those occupied. i just can't imagine that that would be any here. and like the soluble kind of situation, i mean, david mentioned the possible division of the country. and i think it's something that you referred to at the very top of the show in your 1st answer. this is something that a lot of observers and, and i believe student needs now feel is a very real possibility, isn't it? absolutely. and i think you put yeah, we have been like seeing, you know, a lot of patterns that i looked at that so, so ever since there was thought to the many to be a see was kind of as, as it has captured misstates, that institution. but we have seen the workforce of the competitors fusion from,

you know, a commission actually was interesting. they even helped me to keep on defense a safe way they have the control and app. what are you seeing as when trying to establish police forces in different places? now, in mid any how useful they asked for the top to risk? do they have asked the, you know, technician or need this or they need to be there, but they need to hold them by government douglas to be not having it. but you know, we have seen them trying to do that. but they obviously know that they cannot government to continue themselves. they can type to really by close to, but they know that they cannot government. and this is why, you know, if ever the country as they apply a country or pockets and pockets of the country apps cool. and then the control of that stuff was supposed to been, they tried to kind of go ahead and try to calm governments and, and so, and that's not going to go through uh very easy without to invest in it and they

need and they wouldn't, it wouldn't be easy for them to get accept and then maybe so that's what not that you know, there's nothing in this tabulated vision. uh so it is it, is that what does that people have been seating, but they think now that support place is making advancement. spinning in various kinds of parts of the country. it's it's, it's clear that they are not sitting at or whatever they have the opposite so far. they want to get more, which is quite, you know, quite totally, not their elena, i saw you not in your head and agreement for most of that answer. yeah, i, i don't mean to sound dramatic, but this is a very, very dangerous moment for the down, a very uncertain moments. the student needs stage is collapsing of the art stuff might be on a concrete and jump drive. but that doesn't mean that a state is being formed in its, in its wake. these are very uncertain times. it's unclear what exactly will be left

of this within the state. and obviously, dan, when this is finished, we could see the arts of continued to have victories, but essentially have local conflicts. uh, a rock to like wildfire is around because there is not the legitimacy a to rule. so i think on the one hand you have this war between these 2 main belligerents but. ready this question of what follows even as far as of continues to when it has shown no capacity to govern, he doesn't have legitimacy to it's becoming increasingly a hodgepodge of local board lords in militia. it's almost like a perpetual motion machine, which just has to keep moving. keep conquering what happens to it. what does this work finishes? um, it looks like a very bleak picture. david, is there any way? i mean it is a very bleed picture. what i'm hearing from both meet and alan and prior to that by yourself david, is there anything that can prevent this scenario from unfolding? uh well, uh, if you had a uh tiffany, take place uh the leadership level of rapids support forces and the sit down armed

forces. possibly you could come to us at least to cease fire and, and some kind of ending of their conflict that would not solve should damage problem that it might stop dividing short of that. no, i don't, i don't see any on any solution your, my analysis would be at least as bleak as those that we have already heard. and i, i think this post is a huge problem for the international community also all which is going to be somewhat divider, honest response. but um, certainly western county. ready are not going to be anxious to support almost anything i can conceive of. yeah. busy likely take place and sit down and they're coming miles. well since, since none of you expect to see an epiphany really on this side of the are assessed for this and these armed forces. it could there be a more robust diplomatic effort than what we've seen over the last 8 months, whether it's from saudi arabia, from the us, from egypt,

from the east african leaders. could there be something more or less, there could be a more robust effort? yes. whether we're doing it good or not as part of another matter i, i'm just not convinced that i'm either the, the rapid support forces or the should down our versus have any interest in hearing anything about mediation or based thoughts from anyone at this point. uh, based on, on the any kind of leverage i, i just don't see that leverage being there to force them to do what they need to do to, to support their own people. i mean, we have just about a minute left on the show. i'm wondering just before we go, if you can sort of bring us the conversations that the sudanese people are having when they follow, obviously the trajectory of their country and where things are right now. it's quite depressing. that's the thing everyone is kind of using both. now,

and if it was, if anyone had, you know, more hold, uh that it would be a way out of this just before the full of many. uh, now the folks that are fading away. i don't think it's particularly because, you know, we have seen that the ministry is not able to do that to kind of gain uh any, any, any like to have any wins military, me and i'm with the good ones they've been having been using now. i don't use the that, but the book sources have been winning. mean it's a bit confusing for me to keep an input on the other hand, mediation, heartsfield. uh, because mediation is in pod, same kind of i have to bring both actors together to make them come, it gets used by it. so that's what people are waiting now, is that maybe there is no way off of this. and this is something that kind of thing with people not being quoting for his that you know, i can use. so it could happen now is for the international community to exist. tedious spirit sport supposed to have both fraction specifically that supports most

of the you a tobacco and then things might get to some way we, we could see a way out of it. but as long as the support is coming in, there is no way to kind of create them. it's that word and all right, well that's all the time we have to today. but i wanna thank our guess how many the honda father and boswell and david sion. thank you very much for your time today and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website, delta 0 dot com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a inside story. you can also join the conversation on x. i'll handle there is at a inside story. for me, so venue and the whole team here. and uh huh. bye. the for dish medical staff are working in solar there to wisconsin. they say the plot

sputtered gowns. they will speak for the palestinian victim. so israel is war. use the phone. ok yes. let. the horror is a for 2 years ago and settled in his stomach. he lost $21.00 relatives in casa on october. the 14th is on the family live and as a beyond vision with capacity. the professors here accused israel of competing war, caused by targeting health facilities in golf for turkish structures. find the most recent is an appeal to the international community. take action against israel. what constitutes exempt so we can talk your see, i want you to start with just the facts rather as to what happened as independent. we won't be, we want the education my wants to read them. we don't have to leave them in the policy and it's going to get 50 percent representation and

accountability and benefits. no 1000 service, this placement. and then you're saying you don't have any reports that i should just trust that unity often is the cool that used to produce outstanding jen. this them out as the integrity in the pursuit of the witnesses. 10, i'll just narrow it's really false. is in gaza. execute at 11 on the palestinian men in front of best families. the i'm sammy say, then this is i'll just say are live from dell hall. so coming up. well, the health organization says there are no functional hospitals left the northern garza due to a lack of fuse stuff and supplies. the number of cars.