what are nice, mexico for is, predicts the whole thing is just a vehicle for his diesel from around the world. ukraine was already hon. this thing, the potential, the full summation and artificial intelligence, special digit workers, cuz now it's the seller right. did that process the next year's us presidential election is predictive to the a concepts between joe biden and donald trump. but not even that is certain in the most on certain of the election campaigns. so who else might be in the mix and what are the important issues? this is inside story, the hello and welcome to the program. i'm telling you. navigate on november the 5th 2024 is the day americans will vote for their next president's. most predict the

contests between president joe biden and donald trump, who seeking a return to the white house, but with trump facing criminal charges and binding and impeachment inquiry. if a week is a long time in politics, 11 months feels like an eternity. who will actually be on the ballot paper isn't certain yet in a campaign swirling with volatility. world leaders are preoccupied with an uncertain global economic and political outlook, a whitening east, west divide, and international involvement and major wars in ukraine and does up. but what's the american voters worry about? who will they pick in an election that has global implications? we'll be discussing this on more with our guests in a moment. but 1st car leg takes a look at how things are playing out so far in the battle for the white house. with less than a year to go the races on for america's tough job. on the 2020 for us presidential

election promises to be like no other before leaving the field of republican candidates for the president, donald trump, he's facing federal and state criminal charges relating to his 2020 election law the the incumbent, joe biden, is the presumptive democratic nominee already the oldest president in american history seeking another time. the gloves were ready off with trump taking a mate fight and after rally in colorado. shortly after a court bought him from appearing on the states pallets. joe bike is a threat to democracy, to threat fight in his head, back tending voters is presence. that's a good bach and no bite. trump just talks to talk. we walk when the latest polls suggest it's neck and neck if the election were a head to head contest, we trump headed by them by 2 percent in a new time c and

a college opinion poll. another survey by the wall street journal suggest trump is a head by 4 percent of the. despite trump dominating the republican field, county face of 6 rivals the most prominent the florida governor, one of the census, former us ambassador to the united nations, nikki haley, public and foreman, new jersey governor chris christie. to form a arkansas governor. it's a hutchinson, a long shot candidate, and political new come a businessman, evict remo swami with little position in the democratic party. why didn't any vice president, kamala harris have the biggest back in the face? challenges from dean phillips, a little known congressman from minnesota, and self help all set and speaker, marianne williamson. i put all the content as have thrown the hot since the ring.

robert f. kennedy junior from the famed american political family. his launch and independent bid. progressive activist, cool, now west says he'll do the same. my former presidential candidate jewel. stine said she will seek the green parties normally ation. the challenge will be to get enough support to get the name on the ballot paper in all 50 states. next year. it will kick stuff in january when republican voters in iowa hold the nominating contest known as the quickest is. then it will be a long wait until november to see who come out on top. regardless of who wins the issues remain the same. domestic concerns such as rising inflation and the cost of living, crime, control and legal drugs, health care, welfare and social security. as well as migration with record numbers of people crossing the southern border with mexico. this year for the review of the relationship with china continues to dominate foreign policy,

as well as on gaza and rushes invasion of ukraine, both of which receive us backing and funding. but for now, it will be the hope for candidate to move, backing as a speak to in the hearts and minds of us voters. har leg out a 0 to inside story. the alright, let's bring in our gas. joining us from st. augustan, augustine and florida is tim constantine, who's a senior vice president of diplomacy and external affairs of the washington times is also the host of the capital. so show and from harrisburg, pennsylvania. we have with us thomas gift, who is the director of the center on us politics. a university college london on from burlington vermont, were joined by our shots. how son, who's a democratic political strategist. welcome to you all. thanks for your time or shot . i'll begin with you because look according to one poll by pulling for 538 by these approval rating is sitting at around 34 percent. and that is the worst of any

president. at the same point, since pulling the data became available. how much this is where we, the democrats, and i know that there are some people who are a little bit worried about this. but when we contextualize it, in terms of whether you would vote for jo, buying when that whole question is asked, he's sitting about the same place. he was this time about 4 years ago. and remember 4 years ago. um, so he ended up becoming the uh, the nominee and the president. so i think people are more focused a year out. people shouldn't really be that focused on the polls themselves. more about what the candidates each are doing. right. but his putting his party at risk by running i don't think so. right now he's running one of the strongest economies recoveries we've seen in this country and that's p, as it gets closer and closer to the election. as more and more people see that they're more secure and their livelihoods, they're more secure in their household budgets. and we'll see that this economy is

much better than it was this point 4 years ago. and that's what people be looking for when they start making those decisions develop box. i think this will be good. okay, just one more for you before i bring in my other guess because, you know, in the context of the gaza war that we've been seeing our sides, we hear from a lot of arab american voters. we say that president biden won't be getting their votes because of his stance and, and his stance, but he's taken to support israel no matter what it is, not going to make a big difference. i actually do think it all different for some of my colleagues here. i do think that that is something that you buy that needs to get a handle on. the air of american voters make an enormous amount of significant amount of the electorate in one of the, one of the biggest swing states in the country, michigan. and so joe, by that needs to be doing outreach and communicating to this community. if he wants to show up an important constituency with an important state and this politics he does need to do the work here. all right, thomas, let's bring you in because um, i wanna stick with biden for just

a moment before we talked about the other candidates as well as trump does by the have the energy to actually fuel a campaign at this time because much is made about his age, his $81.00, and he would be the oldest american to win a presidential election. should he win the nomination? of course as well. i mean, i think that that's certainly a legitimate question and it's one that republicans are trying to put it from center. and especially given commer harris's very poor pulling numbers. ones that are even lower than job items are essentially trying to depict a vote for by and as being a vote for harris. and i still think that voters by and large, you know, vote for the top of the ticket. but it has to be consideration given his age. and i do think that this is a drag on the job. i just pulled numbers. it's very difficult to look at the numbers right now, even with a caviar that we are about a year out and be in any way. encouraged by them. not only nationally does it look

like joe biden is maybe losing by a few percentage points to donald trump. at the moment, but he's losing, in almost all of the key swing states. there was a recent poll that came out showing the donald trump had an edge and a 7 key battleground states. so for lots of reasons, both related to jo biden's performance potentially is age. he's just not pulling well, i mean, the, the one, the white house was dealing with this. thomas. i mean, does the white house have a convincing message to democrats about why they shouldn't be nervous? well, i think that to a large extent, the white house has tried to frame this as a public relations problem and that they're just not getting the message out. but i think that a lot of voters are just dissatisfied with the state of the us economy and the state of the country is going at the moment. but i do think that it's, it's interesting that polls so show such dis favorability on the economy. because

if you looked at some objective measures inflation as decreased considerably jobs, numbers are still relatively robust. it looks like the economy is going to achieve this soft landing that many fear that it would not be able to. so there does seem to be a disconnect between what's happening on the ground and, and how americans are reacting. but ultimately, i think joe biden has to figure out some way to circumvent that challenge because it's really been dragging down his numbers. okay, let's bring into him, i mean, do you agree with that? and is it just going to be joe biden to him, or how likely is a democratic shakeup at this point? i see an entirely different scenario, and i've been saying this for months. and when i 1st started, people kind of laughed and thought i was crazy. but as time has gone on, i think maybe maybe there's something to this. i believe joe biden will, will continue to run through the primary process in the united states. you mentioned in the opening, iowa, others. i wouldn't go after south carolina. they go state by state or

a few days where there are multiple states and a by may or so hopefully someone can either party has racked up enough delegates to officially be the candidate for their part. i think july, and we'll go through that process and then enter the convention this summer. the democratic convention, as the assume was not. let me, however, i think at that convention jo mine and the people around him will announce i have had, i've seen the line i, i've had a thought here that perhaps i am too old. perhaps i'm not ready to go for another 4 years. however, his people will control all of those delegates, which means essentially they can choose, they hear that they have unusually large way over either. now many will be. so i thank you. you'll see michelle obama. jo bivens administration is essentially binding 2 point oh, uh, binding is for obama. 2 point, oh, meaning

a whole lot of the people that work in administration are obama people, obama, presidency, people, the ask you what you're basing this on. i mean, you, you say that this is just, is this the feeling you have you think this is what's gonna happen or, or is there, or do you have some insight or info you can share with us? you know, i think it's based on a political reality. you know, is your, your earlier guess of the economy is good. i just disagree. it's good compared to where it was 18 months ago, but it's not good having 3 and a half percent inflation is a great, it's better than the 9 percent inflation. but when they say there's a disconnect between the motor between the resident of the united states as citizens and the actual economy, i don't think there is one on election day in 2020, i literally went out and took a photograph of how much the gas was on that day was about $89.00 per gallon of gas, and over the last couple years has gone as high as $4.00. every single american puts gasoline in their car. so when gas is twice as expensive,

they feel it in their wall. if you buy things like eggs, they are twice as expensive, so there's no disconnect. that's real life. when people go out, this is winter time here now, and you could buy a bag of wood at the grocery store to put in your fireplace a year and a half ago, right. a winter of a year ago. it was $5.00 and there it is. now $9.00 in there, so those are real numbers. those are real hips on people. and the reality is you've got an 81 year old president looks and acts every one of those 81 years he falls down on stage, he looks lost on stage. he does not look like he is in charge at a time when there is war raging in the middle east. there's war raging in your brain and russia and right know topics. yeah. all issues that we're going to get onto all this is we're going to get onto, but just allow me to let are so the i'm with the bottom is a bundle 10. and i think the democrats know that your democrat yeah. okay. i can

stand by somebody for a moment because i do want to get back to our side because i saw you shaking your head when tim was suggesting that michelle obama might be put forward. i'm sorry, but this is absurd. it's completely, i'm serious. that's not how any of this works. i've actually been to delegate a number of times of the convention just doesn't work like this. michelle obama herself, if it was a vastly highly popular figure among americans, and particularly the democratic party has absolutely no interest in running for any office of any sort rover. you need to put together an entire campaign and adherent into structures for any of this kind of stuff works. it doesn't happen in secret people with now. so i'm sorry, but this is a lot. okay. can you show them? is the best honey? just all right, i mean at this point at this point, you know, we'll, we'll have to wait to see what happens. and so just very briefly, to him very briefly, cuz i'd like to move on to another as you go on. sure,

here's what it will work for. michelle obama to run a campaign for 9 months would not work. she has a tendency to put her foot in her mouth even when she has the best of intentions. however, in this scenario, the democratic convention is late in august, which leaves are only september and october before election day. the 1st 30 days, the american media who loves michelle o box will form all over her. she will not have to do anything. and then the last 30 days, personal sho decline to debate from or whomever the normally is. because trump, for example, this year refused to participate in the republican debase. so there's no problem. there's no, he has no legitimate argument when she says back to you, but no, thank you or not. okay, well i'm glad you bring, i'm sorry. good. we'll last know last know. instead of shielding what television special with oprah that will give a huge raise, an american women and american minorities, bulky constituencies will absolutely love her. this is all right. well not to have to wait to see what happens then. we'll check in with both of you gentlemen. at the

time to see whether these predictions have come through, but thomas, let me bring you it. on the republican side of the expectation is about trump is going to be victorious. that's the expectation. and according to the polls as well, but what we see now is that his legal troubles are back at the forefront. and we also saw that recently the colorado high court rule, but trump is ineligible to run again for president. so 1st talk to us about what happened in colorado and what does this disqualification mean for trump going forward if anything at all? well, it was a 43 decision in colorado, essentially banning donald trump from being on the ballot group is going to appeal this to the supreme court. and i think in all likelihood the supreme court is going to overrule that decision and that he will ultimately be on the ballot. but i think from trump standpoint, in terms of the campaign, this was an early christmas gift for him. it was a present just like all the other indictments that have held to him and will

continue to help him. and donald trump is basically able to frame this as yet another example of where the judicial system is being weaponized against him. that he's the victim. that this is a hoax. this is a witch hunt, etc. and we've seen his poll numbers, of course, increase every single time he has space legal difficulties. i don't think that this instance will be any different. and i really do think that donald trump is going to be the runaway, but not many for the republican side. he has a big lead in iowa, almost 30 percentage points. we are saying make you fairly, to an extent reduce that margin in new hampshire. but i still think that she's just too far away from donald trump and especially given what we saw over this last week, it's only going to shepherd him to the nomination. arshad. do you agree with this that this helps trump? uh, when it comes to his run for presidency and also what impact does all of this have

on independent voters? and that's what the question really is. first, i'll save this. i can agree that donald trump is a consummate grifter. no matter what happens. he's gonna find a way to raise money off it. that's exactly what he's been doing. that's exactly. we'll continue to do regardless of the outcome of any of these sort of products. but to your 2nd question, what does this do for independent voters? i read this from courtney wells. write this down in front, pull up here on the ballast, but the message, this is reinforcing for independent voters, people are potentially persuadable. it reinforces the fact that donald trump constantly gets himself into legal trouble. trouble. and i don't mean small little legal trouble. i mean, defrauding, denying, and conspiracy. it conspired to overthrow the will of the people americans these, these prosecutions. people forget that in order to get these prosecutions in order to get these indictments grand juries of everyday americans, people from all over and all different kinds of backgrounds and multiple

jurisdictions have indicted donald trump and now over 90 different charges. every time the donald trump goes to court, sure, he'll send an e mail to raise money out of it, but also it will remind voters of this man is unreliable and stable and does not respect the will of the people. okay, tim, react to that and also tell us who's likely to challenge trump in the primaries of police? i mean, there are a number of candidates, but who's the most likely threat to think? sure, the interest to the last comment there, the indictment doesn't mean anything. that's not a charge of guilt. that means there's, there's a charge. me a diamond process before a grand jury, only one side is present to the prosecutor presents his side. there is no defense whatsoever. and the only question of the grand jury is to have enough information that they should go to trial. but they only hear one side of the story. so when they type in means absolutely nothing. and in the united states, you are presumed innocent until you were found guilty and try on trial. so okay,

but the, what about the other candidates on the other candidates? i think what will keep an eye on is in iowa, even though the polls way ahead. i don't know how much of a structure he has. iowa is or caucus, instead of a primary meaning of the primary. you go your boat, you go back to work or you go home or at o'clock as you stay there for hours and it's all about being organized, but i will also has a long history of 50 losers. 10 cruise won iowa in 2016 rick santorum, one in 2012 the all way back to reagan and george bush, deep ronald greg and i was so i will make create some momentum for someone, but it is not the little deal. what it will do, give trouble, is that if he wins like 40 points, it continues the, the feeling of in the habit ability. tom mentioned, there was a recent poll in new hampshire that showed lindy haley within striking distance the most recent pole. and i think it was

a t i p people i might be mistaken by credible paul was had trumpet 33. nikki haley, a 29. so i think the only place you're going to see a possibility is if she does well in new hampshire, south carolina, which is for home state is the 3rd stage in the process. so then maybe you set up a little race, but i think it's going to be awful tough for any of the other candidates to overcome the numbers or say, tom, what about the issues that are important for americans? i mean, obviously the economy is one we've already spoken about that, but what other issues will, will voters be taking into consideration when it comes to domestic us issues we'll get on to foreign policy in just a moment. right. well, i think that the economy is front and center. that's always going to be the case. and if the economy is trending up or so, it's going to help a job. i mean, if it stays sort of at the current level, i think that this is good for the republican. how many that's trump or, or someone else? immigration certainly is an issue. i think that republicans can make significant

progress on, in terms of challenging the administration. also, the abortion issue is one that is kind of the gift that keeps on giving for democrats. we saw that particularly in 2020 to mid terms. we saw that in the 2023 off year elections as well as something that republicans, by and large of had difficulty grappling with. bi, ultimately think that if it was, it is a trump versus bite and then 2024. this election is going to be less about specific policy issues and more about just the personalities of these 2 individuals. i think it will largely just be a referendum on donald trump. typically we see referendums on individual who's in the white house. but donald trump, just because of his outsized personality is polarized status, it's all going to be about, you know, do we want uh, 4 more years of this individual, or do we want kind of more of this? and we want the status bar. okay. our sides. what about foreign policy issues?

i mean, we know of, you know, but judging by past elections in history, americans don't vote on foreign policy issues when it comes to picking their presidents. right. but now would be garza war going on with the ukraine war going on with the, you know, competition for, for china taking place with the us. but what's fame? is there a conversation on these issues happening right now amongst american voters? i'll be honest. i have to say that the conversation happening amongst american voters and the conversation that most politicians are happening do not line up particularly well, including when it comes to the, when it comes to them at least in gaza. in particular, you have both a democratic party and the republican party refusing to support a see fire and gaza on the most americans, almost 2 to one support a ceasefire. so they're certainly conversations happening, but this is one. we're both parties of really disconnected from the american people

. it's kind of a way of saying, you know, it's really not a big alternative between the, between the 2 parties there with right. another way of saying that it's not really going to affect the election a great deal. this is the, here's the thing is, here's the thing table. china, china is a big one because china, what happens with china affects the american economy. so we know the republicans are arguing that china is a growing threat to the national security of the u. s. a threat to us corporate interest, as well as to tie one's independence. and president biden is saying that his administration wants to de risk and not the couple it's relationship with china and to work to keep the competition between the world. number one and number 2, economic powers from escalating into a conflict. is that going to resonate with voters, tim and you know, it's one of those things where again, i think it's a size, it's a blur. it's uh, somehow white noise when you talk to voters about that, they know they go to the store or they go online and they purchase a product,

and there's a pretty good chance it might be made in china short of that. the rest of it is white noise to them. so by the message, trump may have a message, but i don't think either one of them will spend a great deal of time talking about china and i, i just, i don't think that's something that's going to resonate with voters at all. i do think the one bed of for the policy that will resume is a particularly with air of americans and with jewish americans, is the guy so struck gonna, i mean buying and is being treated. i'll say i'm fairly here because the jewish community in the united states doesn't think he's being strong enough. that the error community feels totally a bad it so he could lose both sides because of the way that situation has been handled thus far by his administration. right, okay, and just one final thoughts from all 3 gentlemen, thomas will start with you. are americans excited by trump versus biting election? i think it's the exact opposite of excitement and in fact i think it's dejection

and it just really, it's just total just fatigue. i don't think that they want to see a re match of 2020. and that's the big irony here, which is that you have 2 of the primary candidates, most of whom have pull numbers that are under water. most people don't want you to buy most people want donald trump, that one alternative. but because of our primary system works and how deference to the incumbent works in the white house, this is the option that they're going to get. but i think it's hard pressed to find someone who thinks of this arshad the exact. marsha, do you think the voter apathy will play a part if americans are not excited about the selection? if it's, if it is a trump versus by one and 30 seconds please. i know, and i will see this, i know for a fact that the democratic party must work on voter apathy. it can be a problem for us. the one thing that i do know is that many voters are motivated to

vote against trump. uh very clearly same as last time. it is also important that the democratic party works on a space to make sure that there isn't easy as and for by and both these things to be true. right tim, final word to you rascal has put out a folded show of 61 percent of americans, 61 percent said they don't want to see that free match. so if you talk about apathy or frustration you would have created on the nose. i think this is an odd case where a 3rd party candidate it way the way the system is set up, but could have an impact on the outcome with a 3rd party get in. there may be enough people that are so frustrated on both sides of the issue that they, they go down that center and that has an impact on who ultimately wins. all right, so we'll have to see what happens for the time being. thank you so much gentlemen. for joining us, tim, constant time thomas gift on our side pass on thanks for your time. thanks for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website out to 0.

com for further discussion. go to our facebook page about facebook dot com, forward slash a inside story. during the conversation on x or handle is a inside story from myself and the whole team here. and so how, thanks for watching and bye bye for now the as israel's war and gaza continues, we bring you the nation. we're on the grounds and goes back to bring you the events as they have been reporting 1st time on the suffering. and a lot of people under immense list of tasks and states and we live in occupied east garrison covering the lakes, his political developments. and in fact, we're here across the west bank voting as how this floor is not just massively attract singles and garza stay with us for the latest updates and detailed coverage

of the war on gaza on houses. you know, a lot of the stories that we cover all highly complex, so it's very important that we make them as understandable as we can to as many people as possible no matter how much they know about a given crises. so issue the smell of that is all over power. as long as you say we're correspondence, that's what we strive to do for just medical stuff our will, can install it there to wisconsin. they say the plot sputtered grounds. they will speak for the palestinian victim. so israel's war, use the phone. okay. yeah, fluffed the horizontal for 2 years ago and settled in his stomach. kilo's $21.00 relatives in casa on october. the 14th is on the family live and as a be on vision we capacity. the professors here accused the israel of competing war across the board, targeting health facilities in golf for turkish doctors. the most ration is an

appeal to the international community to take action against israel. the of the days of delay, the un security council approves a watered down resolution for more humanitarian aid to gaza. us vito's, a russian coal for an urgent cessation of hostilities. this resolution is a step in the right direction. it must be implemented and must be accompanied by massive pressure for an immediate supply on i'd be immediate since the.