a in a world where the news never ends. understanding what's behind the headlines is more important than ever. it takes listening to the people behind the news and to the journalist for reporting their stories. it's that intimacy that makes every international story local at heart. i'm only can be the host of the take a daily news podcast powered by the global reporting of al jazeera, find us where ever you get your pod cast. the next year's us presidential election is predictive to the concepts between joe biden and donald trump. but not even that is certain in the most on certain of the election campaigns. so who else might be in the mix and what are the important issues? this is an side story, the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm getting you navigate on november the 5th 2024 is the day americans will vote for their next president's most predict the contests between president joe biden and donald trump, who seeking a return to the white house, but with trump facing criminal charges and bite and an impeachment inquiry if a week is a long time in politics, 11 months feels like an eternity who will actually be on the ballot paper isn't certain yet in a campaign swirling with volatility. world leaders are preoccupied with an uncertain global economic and political outlook. a widening east west divide and international involvement and major wars in ukraine and gaza. but what's the american voters worry about? who will they pick in an election that has global implications?

we'll be discussing this on more with our guests in a moment. but 1st car leg takes a look at how things are planning out so far in the battle for the white house is less than a year to go. the races on for america's tough job. on the 2020 for us presidential election promises to be like no other before leading the field of republican candidates for the president, donald trump, he's facing federal and state criminal charges relating to his 2020 election law. the, the incumbent joe biden is the presumptive democratic nominee. already the oldest president in american history seeking another time. the gloves were ready off with trump taking a mate fight, and after rally in colorado, shortly after a court bought him from appearing on the states pallets. joe bite is

a threat to democracy, to threat fight in his head, back tending vote is prentiss at the bach and no bite? trump just talks or talk. we want the latest polls suggest it's neck and neck if the election were a head to head contest, we trump headed by them by 2 percent and a new time seeing a college opinion polls. another survey by the wall street journal suggest trump is a head by 4 percent of the despite trump dominating the republican field, currently facing 6 rivals. the most prominent to florida governor one dissenters for me, us in the past to the to the united nations. nikki haley, public and full menu jersey governor chris christy to wilma, arkansas, governor ice, a hutchinson, a long shot candidates and political new come a businessman,

vic rum swami with little position in the democratic party. why didn't any vice president, kamala harris have the biggest backend? but face challenges from dean phillips, a little known congressman from minnesota, and self help all set and speaker, marianne williamson. but all the content as have thrown the hats in to the ring. robert f. kennedy junior from the famed american political family. his notion, independent, good, progressive activist, who now west says he'll do the same or former presidential candidate. jewel stein said she will seek the green parties moment ation. the challenge will be to get enough support to get the name on the ballot paper in all 50 states. next year it will kick stuff in january when republican voters in iowa hold the nominating contest known as the quickest is. then it will be a long wait until november to see who come out on top. regardless of who wins the

issues remain the same. domestic concern, such as rising inflation and the cost of living, crime, control and legal drugs, health care, welfare and social security. as well as migration with record numbers of people crossing the southern border with mexico this year. further afield, the relationship with china continues to dominate foreign policy as well as on gaza and russia's invasion of ukraine, both of which receive us backing and funding. but for now, it will be the hopeful candidate to move back in as a speak to in the hearts and minds of us voters. har leg out a 0 to inside story. the alright, let's bring in our guest. joining us from st. augustan, augustine and florida is tim constantine, who's a senior vice president of diplomacy and external affairs of the washington times is also the host of the capital. so, so on from harrisburg, pennsylvania, we have with us thomas gift, who is the director of the center on us politics. a university college london on

from burlington vermont, were joined by our shots. how son, who's a democratic political strategist, welcome to you all. thanks for your time or shot. i'll begin with you because look, according to one poll by pulling for 538 by these approval rating is sitting at around 34 percent. and that is the worst of any president at the same point. since pulling the data became available. how much this is where we're the democrats, i know that there are some people who are a little bit worried about this, but when we conceptualize it, in terms of whether you would vote for jo, buying when that whole question is asked, he's sitting about the same place he was this time about 4 years ago, and remember 4 years ago. um, so he ended up becoming the uh, the nominee and the president. so i think people are more focused a year out. people shouldn't really be that focused on the polls themselves. more about what the candidates each are doing. right, but hesitate putting his party at risk by running i don't think so. right

now he's running one of the strongest economies recoveries we've seen in this country, and that's p, as it gets closer and closer to the election. as more and more people see that they're more secure and their livelihoods, the more secure in their household budgets. and we'll see that this economy is much better than it was this point 4 years ago. and that's what people be looking for when they start making those decisions develop box. i think this will be good. okay, just one more for you before i bring in my other guess because, you know, in the context of the gaza war that we've been seeing our sides, we hear from a lot of air of american voters. we say that president biden won't be getting their votes because of his stance and, and his stance, but he's taken to support is real no matter what it is not going to make a big difference. i actually do think it all different for some of my colleagues here. i do think that that is something that you buy that needs to get a handle on. darren, american voters make an enormous amount of significant amount of the electorate in

one of one of the biggest swing states in the country, michigan. and so joe body needs to be doing outreach and communicating to this community. if he wants to show up an important constituency with an important state and this politics he does need to do the work here. all right, thomas, let's bring you in because um, i wanna stick with biden for just a moment before we talked about the other candidates as well as trump does by the have the energy to actually fuel a campaign at this time because much is made about his age, his $81.00, and he would be the oldest american to win a presidential election. should he win the nomination? of course as well. i mean, i think that that's certainly a legitimate question and it's one that republicans are trying to put it from center. and especially given commer harris's very poor pulling numbers. ones that are even lower than job items are essentially trying to depict a vote for by and as being a vote for harris. and i still think that voters by and large, you know,

vote for the top of the ticket. but it has to be consideration given his age. and i do think that this is a drag on the job. i just pull numbers. it's very difficult to look at the numbers right now. even with a caviar that we are about a year out and be in any way, encouraged by them. not only nationally, does it look like joe biden is maybe losing by a few percentage points to donald trump at the moment, but he's losing, in almost all of the key swing states. there was a recent poll that came out showing the donald trump had an edge and a 7 key battleground states. so for lots of reasons, both related to jo, buttons, performance potentially is age. he's just not pulling well, i mean the, the one. so how do you think that the white house was dealing with this, thomas? i mean, does the white house have a convincing message to democrats about why they shouldn't be nervous? well, i think that to a large extent, the white house has tried to frame this as

a public relations problem and that they're just not getting the message out. but i think that a lot of voters are just dissatisfied with the state of the us economy. and the state of the country is going at the moment, but i do think that it's, it's interesting that polls so show such dis favorability on the economy. because if we looked at some objective measures inflation as decreased considerably jobs, numbers are still relatively robust. it looks like the economy is going to achieve this soft landing that many fear that it would not be able to. so there does seem to be a disconnect between what's happening on the ground and, and how americans are reacting. but ultimately, i think joe biden has to figure out some way to circumvent that challenge because it's really been dragging down his numbers. okay, let's bring into him. i mean, do you agree with that? and is it just going to be joe biden to him, or how likely is a democratic shakeup at this point?

i see an entirely different scenario, and i've been saying this for months. and when i 1st started, people kind of laughed and thought i was crazy. but as time has gone on, i think maybe maybe there's something to this. i believe joe biden will, will continue to run through the primary process in the united states. you mentioned in the open, in iowa, there's iowa, new hampshire, south carolina. they go state by state or a few days where there are multiple states and a by may or so hopefully someone can either party has racked up enough delegates to officially be the candidate for their part. i think july, and we'll go through that process and then enter the convention. and this summer, the democratic convention, as the assume was not. let me, however, i think at that convention jo mine and the people around him will announce i have had, i've seen the line i've, i've had a thought here that perhaps i am too old. perhaps i'm not ready to go for another 4 years. however, his people will control all of those delegates,

which means essentially they can choose, they hear that they have unusually large way over either. now many will be. so i thank you. you'll see michelle obama. jo bivens administration is essentially binding 2 point oh, uh, binding is full bama. 2 point. oh, meaning a whole lot of the people that work in administration are obama people, obama, presidency, people, the ask you what you're basing this on. i mean, you, you say that this is just, is this the feeling you have you think this is what's gonna happen or, or is there, or do you have some insight or info you can share with us? you know, i think it's based on a political reality. you know, is your, your earlier guess of the economy is good. i just disagree. it's good compared to where it was 18 months ago, but it's not good having 3 and a half percent inflation is a great, it's better than the 9 percent inflation. but when they say there's a disconnect between the motor between the resident of the united states as citizens and the actual economy,

i don't think there is one on election day in 2020, i literally went out and took a photograph of how much the gas was on that day was about $89.00 per gallon of gas . and over the last couple years has gone sized for dollars. every single american puts gasoline in their car. so when gas is twice as expensive, they feel it in their wall. if you buy things like eggs, they are twice as expensive, so there's no disconnect. that's real life when people go out. this is winter time here now, and you can buy a bag of wood at the grocery store to put in your fireplace a year and a half ago, right. i, a winter of a year ago. it was $5.00 and there it is. now $9.00 a back, so those are real numbers. those are real hips on people. and the reality is you've got an 81 year old president looks and acts every one of those 81 years he falls down on stage, he looks lost on stage. he does not look like he is in charge at

a time when there is war raging in the middle east. there's war raging in your brain and russia and right know topics. yeah. all issues that we're going to get onto all this is we're going to get onto, but just allow me to let are. so the i'm with the bottom is a bundle 10. and i think the democrats know that your democrat go take a stand by somebody for a moment because i do want to get back to our side because i saw you shaking your head when tim was suggesting that michelle obama might be put forward. i am sorry, but this is absurd. it's completely, i'm serious. that's not how any of this works. i've actually been to delegate a number of times of the convention just doesn't work like this. michelle obama, herself, if it was a vastly highly popular figure among americans, and particularly the democratic party has absolutely no interest in running for any office of any sort rover. you need to put together an entire campaign and adherent

into structure for any of this kind of stuff work, it doesn't happen in secret people with now. so i'm sorry, but this is a lot. okay. can you show them? is the best honey? just all right, i mean at this point at this point, you know, we'll, we'll have to wait to see what happens. and so just very briefly, to him very briefly, cuz i'd like to move on to another as you go on. sure, here's what it will work for. michelle obama to run a campaign for 9 months would not work. she has a tendency to put her foot in her mouth even when she has the best of intentions. however, in this scenario, the democrat convention is late in august, which leaves are only september and october before election day. the 1st 30 days, the american media who loves michelle o box will form all over her. she will not have to do anything. and then the last 30 days, personal sho decline to debate from or whomever the normally is. because trauma, for example, this year, refused to participate in the republican debase. so there's no problem. there's no, he has no legitimate arguments when she says back to you, but no,

thank you or not. okay, well i'm glad you bring, i'm sorry. good. we'll last know last know. instead of shielding what television special with oprah and that will give a huge raise, an american women and american minorities bocce constituencies will absolutely love her. this is all right. well not to have to wait to see what happens then. we'll check in with both of you gentlemen at the time to see whether these predictions have come through. but thomas, let me bring you it. on the republican side of the expectation is that trump is going to be victorious. that's the expectation. and according to the polls as well, but what we see now is that his legal troubles are back at the forefront. and we also saw that recently the colorado high court rule, but trump is ineligible to run again for president. so 1st talk to us about what happened in colorado and what does this disqualification mean for trump going forward if anything at all? well, it was a 43 decision in colorado, essentially banning donald trump from being on the ballot. golf is going to appeal

this to the supreme court, and i think in all likelihood the supreme court is going to overrule that decision and that he will ultimately be on the ballot. but i think from trump standpoint, in terms of the campaign, this was an early christmas gift for him. it was a president just like all the other indictments that have helped him and will continue to help him. and donald trump is basically able to frame this as yet another example of where the judicial system is being weaponized against him, that he's the victim, that this is a hoax. this is a witch hunt, etc. and we've seen his poll numbers, of course, increase every single time he has face legal difficulties. i don't think that this instance will be any different. and i really do think that donald trump is going to be the runaway, but not many for the republican side. he has a big lead in iowa, almost 30 percentage points. we are saying make you shelly, to an extent reduce that margin in new hampshire,

but i still think that she's just too far away from donald trump. and especially given what we saw over this last week, it's only going to shepherd him to the nomination are. so how do you agree with this that this helps trump uh, when it comes to his run for presidency and also what impact does all of this have on independent voters? and that's what the question really is. first, i'll say this, i can agree that donald trump is a consummate grifter. no matter what happens, he's gonna find a way to raise money off. it is exactly what he's been doing. that's exactly. we'll continue to do regardless of the outcome of any of these sort of verdicts. but to your 2nd question, what does this do for independent voters? i read this from courtney wells. write this down and trump will appear on the ballast with a message. this is reinforcing for independent voters, people potentially persuadable. it reinforces the fact that donald trump constantly gets himself into legal trouble, trouble,

and i don't mean small little legal trouble. i mean, defrauding, denying, and conspiracy. it conspired to over throw the will of the people americans. these, these prosecutions people forget that in order to get these prosecutions in order to get these indictments grand juries of everyday americans, people from all over and all different kinds of backgrounds and multiple jurisdictions have indicted donald trump and now over 90 different charges every time the down truck goes to court, sure, he'll send an e mail to raise money off of it. but also it will remind voters of this man is unreliable, unstable, and does not respect the will of the people. okay, to react to that and also tell us who's likely to challenge trump in the primaries of the lease? i mean, there are a number of candidates, but who is the most likely threat to think? sure, the interest to the last comment there, the indictment doesn't mean anything. that's not a charge of guilt. that means there's, there's a charge. me a diamond process before a grand jury,

only one side is present to the prosecutor presents his site. there is no defense whatsoever. and the only question of the grand jury is do you have enough information that they should go to trial? but they only hear one side of the story. so when they type in means absolutely nothing. and in the united states, you are presumed innocent until you were found guilty and try on trial. so okay, but the, what about the other candidates or on the other cable is i think what will keep an eye on is in iowa, even though the polls way ahead. i don't know how much of a structure he has. iowa is or caucus, instead of a primary meaning of the primary, you go your boat, you go back to work or you go home or at a clock as you stay there for hours. and it's all about being organized, but i will also has a long history of 50 losers. 10 cruise one, iowa in 2016 rick santorum, one in 2012 the all way back to reagan and george bush, deep ronald reagan and i was so i will make create some momentum for someone,

but it is not the little deal. what it will do, you have trouble is that if he wins like 40 points, it continues the, the feeling of in the habit ability. tom mentioned, there was a recent poll in new hampshire that showed lindy haley within striking distance the most recent pole. and i think it was a t i p people i might be mistaken by credible paul was had trumpet 33. nikki haley, a 29. so i think the only place you're going to see a possibility is if she does well in new hampshire, south carolina, which is for home state is the 3rd stage in the process. so then maybe you set up a little race, but i think it's going to be awful tough for any of the other candidates to overcome the numbers or say, tom, what about the issues that are important for americans? i mean, obviously the economy is one we've already spoken about that, but what other issues will, will voters be taking into consideration when it comes to domestic us issues we'll get on to foreign policy in just a moment. right. well,

i think that the economy is front and center. that's always going to be the case. and if the economy is trending up or so, it's going to help a job. i mean, if it stays sort of at the current level, i think that this is good for the republican. how many that's trump or, or someone else? immigration certainly is an issue. i think that republicans can make significant progress on, in terms of challenging the administration. also, the abortion issue is one that is kind of the gift that keeps on giving for democrats. we saw that particularly in 2020 to mid terms. we saw that in the 2023 off year elections as well as something that republicans, by and large of had difficulty grappling with by ultimately think that if it was, it is a trump versus bite. and in 2024. this election is going to be less about specific policy issues and more about just the personalities of these 2 individuals. i think it will largely just be

a referendum on donald trump. typically we see referendums on individual who's in the white house. but donald trump, just because of his outsized personality is polarized status. it's all going to be about, you know, do we want uh, 4 more years of this individual, or do we want kind of more of this? and we want the status quo. okay. our sides. what about foreign policy issues? i mean, we know of, you know, but judging by past elections in history, americans don't vote on foreign policy issues when it comes to picking their presidents. right. but now would be garza war going on with the ukraine war going on with the, you know, competition for, for china taking place with the us. what's fame? is there a conversation on these issues happening right now amongst american voters? i'll be honest. i have to say that the conversation happening amongst american voters and the conversation that most politicians are happening do not line up

particularly well, including when it comes to the, when it comes to them at least in gaza. in particular. you have both the democratic party and the republican party refusing to support a see fire in gaza on the most americans, almost 2 to one support to cease fire. so there's certainly conversations happening, but this is one. we're both parties of really disconnected from the american people . it's kind of a way of saying, you know, it's really not a big alternative between that, between the 2 parties there with right. another way of saying that it's not really gonna affect the election a great deal. this is what, here's the thing is, here's the thing table. china, china is a big one because china, what happens with china affects the american economy. so, we know the republicans are arguing that china is a growing threat to the national security of the u. s. a. threat to us corporate interest as well as to tie ones independence and president biden is saying that his administration wants to de risk and not a couple. it's relationship with china and to work to keep the competition between

the world. number one and number 2, economic powers from escalating into a conflict. is that going to resonate with voters? tim? you know, it's one of those things where again, i think it's a size, it's a blur. it's some white noise when you talk to voters about that, they know they go to the store or they go online and they purchase a product, and there's a pretty good chance it might be made in china short of that. the rest of it is white noise to the so finding the message, trump may have a message, but i don't think either one of them will spend a great deal of time talking about china and i, i just, i don't think that somebody is going to resume with voters at all, i do think the one bed of 4 on a policy that will resume is a particularly with air of americans and with jewish americans, is the guy who's struck and i mean buying and is being treated also fairly here because the jewish community in the united states doesn't think he's being strong enough that the error community feels totally about it. so he could lose both sides

because of the way that situation has been handled thus far by his administration. right, okay. and just one final thoughts from all 3 gentlemen, thomas will start with you. are americans excited by trump versus biting the election? i think it's the exact opposite of excitement and in fact, i think it's dejection and it just, really, it's just total uh, just fatigue. i don't think that they want to see a re match of 2020. and that's the big irony here, which is that you have 2 of the primary candidates, both of whom have pull numbers that are under water. most people don't want you to buy, and most people want donald trump, that one alternative. but because of our primary system works and how deference to the incumbent works in the white house, this is the option that they're going to get. but i think it's hard for us to find someone who thinks of this arshad the exact. marsha,

do you think the voter apathy will play a part if americans are not excited about the selection? if it's, if it is a trump versus by one and 30 seconds please. i know, and i will see this, i know for a fact that the democratic party must work on voter apathy. it can be a problem for us. the one thing that i do know is that many voters are motivated to vote against trump. uh, very clearly same as last time. it is also important of the democratic party works on a space to make sure that there isn't these guys in for, by and both these things to be true. alright tim, final word to you rascal has put out a folded show of 61 percent of americans, 61 percent said they don't want to see that free match. so if you talk about apathy or frustration you would have created on the nose. i think this is an odd case where a 3rd party candidate it way the way the system is set up, but could have an impact on the outcome with a 3rd party get in. there may be enough people that are so frustrated on both sides

of the issue that they, they go down that center and that has an impact on who ultimately went. all right, so we'll have to see what happens for the time being. thank you so much gentlemen. for joining us, tim, constant time thomas gift on our side pass on thanks for your time. thanks for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website out to 0. com for further discussion. go to our facebook page about facebook dot com, forward slash a inside story. during the conversation on x or handle is asia inside story from myself and the whole team here. and so how, thanks for watching and bye bye for now. the the latest news, as it breaks, officials taste top 0 temperatures of pulse smells, and china are forcing emergency teams to work as quickly as they can with detailed coverage. i'm not, sees the maya train a part of a larger plan from water. nice mexico for his critics. the whole thing is just

a vehicle for his ego from around the world. ukraine was already harnessing the potential, the full summation and artificial intelligence, special digit workers, cuz now it celebrated that process. how's the word you, pray, rages on. some of the young russians are refusing to take up on the $1.00 oh, $1.00 east meets those fleeting to neighboring cars. that stuff on a just and then finished journey that has less than broken gay involved. they thought they could make it to europe, traveling from sending go through the sahara to the edge of the mediterranean image here. the traffic has sold us 2 groups. i'm debbie. i like slaves piled in a dark cage, only a meter high out of a 120 people that were with us on the 17 survived. the stop, what your opinions perceive as an unstoppable flow of africans,

the pressure you share it to making the traffic of migrants illegal. but now the law criminalizing of legal migration is being revoked. the you now for years, a new wave of margaret's. this will cost best and the best searching, but that would also mean more people coming to you. despite the humiliation abuse and suffering all day and isa, they're willing to attempt the journey to europe again in search for what they hope will be a dignified life. the un security council, adults and resolution calling for increased aid for gaza with full sort of tutoring for us to sign as well on how about the hello i'm dire in jordan, this is obviously are a lie. pito who also coming up at least 18 people are killed in on his riley strike

. i'm in the set up for a for g cap for the victims for brothers. the roof explained some of the giovanni or refuge account. the northern gauze is randy as prizes.